War and Peace War and Peace in the 21in the 21stst century century

Science, Art, and Practice of War and PeaceScience, Art, and Practice of War and PeaceMAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) PhilosophyMAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) Philosophy

Post-Information Age > Post-Nuclear Epoch > Post-Human EraPost-Information Age > Post-Nuclear Epoch > Post-Human EraRise and Dominance of Peace-Making Intelligent MachineryRise and Dominance of Peace-Making Intelligent Machinery

“All men are always at war with on another”“All men are always at war with on another”Will the World Collapse in the Next 10-15 Years? Will the World Collapse in the Next 10-15 Years?

Why? How?Why? How?Next World 2.0 Scenario: Next World 2.0 Scenario:

Fourth-generation Technological Revolution or Fourth-generation Warfare, Fourth-generation Technological Revolution or Fourth-generation Warfare, global hybrid wars characterized by a blurring of the lines between war and global hybrid wars characterized by a blurring of the lines between war and

politics, soldiers and civilians. politics, soldiers and civilians.

WAR IS AN ABSOLUTE EVIL, PEACE IS AN ABSOLUTE GOODWAR IS AN ABSOLUTE EVIL, PEACE IS AN ABSOLUTE GOODAzamat Sh. Abdoullaev

http://http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eis-global-innovation-platformwww.slideshare.net/ashabook/eis-global-innovation-platform

EU, RUSSIA, 2016

The Future World Evolution Roadmap• WORLD 1.0 (Industrial World) ::

Global Community 1.0 > Society 1.0> Nation 1.0 > City 1.0 > Religion 1.0 > Science 1.0 > Technology 1.0 > Economy 1.0 > Industry 1.0 > Infrastructure 1.0 > Network 1.0 > Telecom 1.0 > Internet 1.0 > Web 1.0 > Service 1.0 > Government 1.0 > Medicine 1.0 > Human 1.0 > War 1.0 > Peace 1.0 > Space 1.0 …>WORLD 0.0 (the World Collapse Scenario)

• WORLD 2.0 (Information World) :: Global Community 2.0 > Society 2.0 > Nation 2.0> City 2.0 > Religion 2.0 > Science 2.0 > Technology 2.0 > Economy 2.0 > Industry 2.0 > Infrastructure 2.0 > Network 2.0 > Telecom 2.0 > Internet 2.0 > Web 2.0 > Service 2.0 > Government 2.0 > Medicine 2.0 > Human 2.0 > War 2.0 > Peace 2.0 > Space 2.0 …> WORLD 0.0 (the World Collapse Scenario)

• WORLD 3.0 (Smart World) :: Global Community 3.0 > Society 3.0 > Nation 3.0> City 3.0 > Science 3.0 > Technology 3.0 > Economy 3.0 > Industry 3.0 > Infrastructure 3.0 > Network 3.0 > Telecom 3.0 > Internet 3.0 > Web 3.0 > Service 3.0 > Government 3.0 > Medicine 3.0 > Human 3.0 > War 3.0 > Peace 3.0 > Space 3.0 …> POST-HUMAN SINGULARITY WORLD

• WORLD X.0 :: Global Community X.0 > Society X.0 > Nation X.0> City X.0 > Science X.0 > Technology X.0 > Economy X.0 > Industry X.0 > Infrastructure X.0 > Network X.0 > Telecom X.0 > Internet X.0 > Web X.0 > Service X.0 > Government X.0 > Medicine X.0 > Human X.0 > War X.0 > Peace X.0 > …Space X.0

• NB. Next World 2.0 Scenario: Fourth-generation NB. Next World 2.0 Scenario: Fourth-generation Technological Revolution or Fourth-generation Warfare, Technological Revolution or Fourth-generation Warfare, global hybrid wars characterized by a blurring of the lines global hybrid wars characterized by a blurring of the lines between war and politics, states and non-states, soldiers between war and politics, states and non-states, soldiers and civilians. and civilians.

• NB. The process of rise-and-collapse of advanced civilizations at pre-industrial, industrial and information stages is a recurrent cycle, as it’s found throughout history.

• The geopolitical risks of the total Civilization Collapse disappear only with the World 3.0, POST-WORLD.

•

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If the Current World 2.0 is to If the Current World 2.0 is to CollapseCollapse

• The world is a more dangerous place The world is a more dangerous place than it was a year ago according to than it was a year ago according to the latest the latest Global Peace Index (GPI) report from the Institute for Economics and Peace.

• RANKRANK COUNTRYCOUNTRY SCORESCORE• 11 SyriaSyria 3.8063.806• 22 South SudanSouth Sudan3.5933.593• 33 IraqIraq 3.5703.570• 44 AfghanistanAfghanistan 3.5383.538• 55 SomaliaSomalia 3.4143.414• 66 YemenYemen 3.3993.399• 77 CARCAR 3.3543.354• 88 UkraineUkraine 3.2873.287• 99 SudanSudan 3.2693.269• 1010 LibyaLibya 3.2003.200• 1111 PakistanPakistan 3.1453.145• 1212 CongoCongo 3.1123.112• 1313 RussiaRussia 3.0793.079• 1414 North KoreaNorth Korea 2.9442.944• 1515 NigeriaNigeria 2.8772.877• The report ranks 163 independent states based on The report ranks 163 independent states based on

how peaceful they are (or, conversely, how how peaceful they are (or, conversely, how dangerous).dangerous).

• The 163 states cover over 99% of the world’s The 163 states cover over 99% of the world’s population and are assessed using 23 indicators, population and are assessed using 23 indicators, normalised on a scale of 1-5. The index measures normalised on a scale of 1-5. The index measures global peace using three broad themes: the level of global peace using three broad themes: the level of safety and security in society, the extent of safety and security in society, the extent of domestic and international conflict, and the degree domestic and international conflict, and the degree of militarisationof militarisation.. WAR & PEACE All Rights

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The World History of Civilizational The World History of Civilizational CollapsesCollapses

• Pax Assyriana in the Old Assyrian Empire (c.2025-Pax Assyriana in the Old Assyrian Empire (c.2025-1750 B.C.), the Middle Assyrian Empire (1365-1050 1750 B.C.), the Middle Assyrian Empire (1365-1050 BC), the Neo-Assyrian Empire (911- 612 B.C.)BC), the Neo-Assyrian Empire (911- 612 B.C.)

• Pax Persiana (6Pax Persiana (6thth century B.C. – 331 B.C.) century B.C. – 331 B.C.)• Pax Hellenica (331 B.C. for about 300 years)Pax Hellenica (331 B.C. for about 300 years)• Pax Romana in the Roman Empire (27 B.C. – A.D. Pax Romana in the Roman Empire (27 B.C. – A.D.

395)395)• Pax Romana in the Eastern Roman/Byzantium Empire Pax Romana in the Eastern Roman/Byzantium Empire

(395-1453)(395-1453)• Pax Romana in the Holy Roman Empire (962 -1806)Pax Romana in the Holy Roman Empire (962 -1806)• Pax Ottomanica (1300 - 1919)Pax Ottomanica (1300 - 1919)• Pax Mongolica (13 -15th centuries) Pax Mongolica (13 -15th centuries) • Pax Britannica (1815 -1914)Pax Britannica (1815 -1914)• Pax Sovietica (1918 - 1991)Pax Sovietica (1918 - 1991)• Pax Europaea/Pax Americana (1950-2020)Pax Europaea/Pax Americana (1950-2020)WAR & PEACE All Rights

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Perpetual War: Perpetual War: Homo Sapiens (man Homo Sapiens (man the wise) vs Homo Barbarus (man the the wise) vs Homo Barbarus (man the

cruel)cruel)• Humanity “makes war for sake of peace” Humanity “makes war for sake of peace” • “…“…14,500 wars have taken place between 14,500 wars have taken place between

3500 BC and the late 20th century, 3500 BC and the late 20th century, costing 3.5 billion lives, leaving only 300 costing 3.5 billion lives, leaving only 300 years of peace (Beer 1981: 20)."years of peace (Beer 1981: 20)."

• Homo sapiens is a great fiction and mythHomo sapiens is a great fiction and myth• Humanity is in the stage of barbarism, Humanity is in the stage of barbarism,

between savagery and civilizationbetween savagery and civilization• To be human is to be atrocious, To be human is to be atrocious,

barbarous and brutal, cruel, merciless, barbarous and brutal, cruel, merciless, rude, savage and untamedrude, savage and untamed

• War is somehow rooted in the nature of War is somehow rooted in the nature of things, in the nature of man and in the things, in the nature of man and in the nature of communitiesnature of communities

• Plato, AristotlePlato, Aristotle• War for human beings seems an War for human beings seems an

inevitable thing, as ineradicable as inevitable thing, as ineradicable as disease and deathdisease and death

• Conway W. Henderson (9 February 2010). Understanding International Law. John Wiley & Sons. pp. 212–. ISBN 978-1-4051-9764-9.

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Deaths (millions)

Date War

60.7–84.6 1939–1945 World War II (see World War II casualties)

60 13th century Mongol Conquests (see Mongol invasions and Tatar invasions)

40 1850–1864 Taiping Rebellion (see Dungan revolt)

39 1914–1918 World War I (see World War I casualties)

36 755–763 An Shi Rebellion (death toll uncertain)

25 1616–1662 Qing dynasty conquest of Ming dynasty

20 1937–1945 Second Sino-Japanese War

20 1370–1405 Conquests of Tamerlane

16 1862–1877 Dungan revolt

5–9 1917–1922 Russian Civil War and Foreign Intervention

Homo Sapience vs. Homo Homo Sapience vs. Homo BarbarusBarbarus

• The world is foolish in not understanding that all men are always at war with one The world is foolish in not understanding that all men are always at war with one anotheranother

• Plato’s LawsPlato’s Laws• The whole of life is divided into two parts, business and leisure, war and peace…The whole of life is divided into two parts, business and leisure, war and peace…

There must be war for the sake of peace…There must be war for the sake of peace…• AristotleAristotle• War is a necessary corrective for the corrosive influence of peaceWar is a necessary corrective for the corrosive influence of peace• HegelHegel• When all the world is overcharged with inhabitants, then the last remedy of all is warWhen all the world is overcharged with inhabitants, then the last remedy of all is war• HobbesHobbes• War is not to be avoided, but is only deferred to your disadvantageWar is not to be avoided, but is only deferred to your disadvantage• MachiavelliMachiavelli• War is a rational instrument of foreign policyWar is a rational instrument of foreign policy• ClausewitzClausewitz• War is a calamity and social disaster, whether it is afflicted be one nation upon War is a calamity and social disaster, whether it is afflicted be one nation upon

another or conceived of as afflicting humanity as a whole …the aim of war is another or conceived of as afflicting humanity as a whole …the aim of war is murder…murder…

• War and Peace, TolstoyWar and Peace, Tolstoy• War is an absolute evil, destroying humanity to the rootWar is an absolute evil, destroying humanity to the root

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Polemologia:Polemologia: Integrated Research of War and Integrated Research of War and PeacePeace

• Polemologia: Peace studies (irenology) + War studies (polemology)Polemologia: Peace studies (irenology) + War studies (polemology)• Polemologia (Polemos + Logos) is the Multidisciplinary Science, Art, and Practice of War and Peace:Polemologia (Polemos + Logos) is the Multidisciplinary Science, Art, and Practice of War and Peace:• Philosophy of War and PeacePhilosophy of War and Peace• Theory of War and PeaceTheory of War and Peace• Laws of War and PeaceLaws of War and Peace• Institutions of War and PeaceInstitutions of War and Peace• Technology of War and PeaceTechnology of War and Peace• Conduct of War and PeaceConduct of War and Peace• Measuring War and PeaceMeasuring War and Peace• Mathematics (Game theory)Mathematics (Game theory)• Military Science, Technology, Resources, National Defence Policy, National Security, Experimental and Military Science, Technology, Resources, National Defence Policy, National Security, Experimental and

Demonstrative Warfare, etc. Demonstrative Warfare, etc. • Peace and conflict studies is a field which analyses violent and nonviolent behaviours, as well as the Peace and conflict studies is a field which analyses violent and nonviolent behaviours, as well as the

structural mechanisms attending violent and non violent social conflicts to understand the ways to a structural mechanisms attending violent and non violent social conflicts to understand the ways to a desirable human condition. desirable human condition.

• Peace studies (irenology) is aiming at the prevention, de-escalation, and solution of conflicts. Peace studies (irenology) is aiming at the prevention, de-escalation, and solution of conflicts. • War studies (polemology) is concerned with the attainment of victory in conflicts. War studies (polemology) is concerned with the attainment of victory in conflicts. • The disciplines involved include political science, geography, economics, psychology, sociology, The disciplines involved include political science, geography, economics, psychology, sociology,

international relations, history, anthropology, religious studies, gender studies, and a variety of other international relations, history, anthropology, religious studies, gender studies, and a variety of other disciplines.disciplines.

• Wanting in the science of war and peace, humanity is tending to total destructionWanting in the science of war and peace, humanity is tending to total destruction• “…“…14,500 wars have taken place between 3500 BC and the late 20th century, costing 3.5 14,500 wars have taken place between 3500 BC and the late 20th century, costing 3.5

billion lives, leaving only 300 years of peace."billion lives, leaving only 300 years of peace."•

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War vs. PeaceWar vs. Peace• What is War or Warfare?What is War or Warfare?• An absence of peace, the tranquility of order, freedom from fear of violenceAn absence of peace, the tranquility of order, freedom from fear of violence• A form of political violence or intervention marked by widespread armed conflict between A form of political violence or intervention marked by widespread armed conflict between

political communities (states and/or non-state actors), extreme violence, ecological, social and political communities (states and/or non-state actors), extreme violence, ecological, social and economic destruction. economic destruction.

• A contest among peoples of armed hostilities of duration and magnitudeA contest among peoples of armed hostilities of duration and magnitude• An armed conflict between societies characterized by extreme hatred, violence, aggression, An armed conflict between societies characterized by extreme hatred, violence, aggression,

destruction, and mortality, mutually destroying infrastructure, industries and communities, cities, destruction, and mortality, mutually destroying infrastructure, industries and communities, cities, states, and nations or humanity as a whole by means of military forces, weaponry and states, and nations or humanity as a whole by means of military forces, weaponry and technologiestechnologies

• Ends of war: geopolitical expansion, conquest, empire or liberty, justice, honor and active peace Ends of war: geopolitical expansion, conquest, empire or liberty, justice, honor and active peace • What is Peace?What is Peace?• Peace is the tranquility of order, freedom from fear of violence, pain and suffering, craving and Peace is the tranquility of order, freedom from fear of violence, pain and suffering, craving and

aversion, disturbance and agitation, riot and violence, a lack of conflict, the absence of hostility, aversion, disturbance and agitation, riot and violence, a lack of conflict, the absence of hostility, compromise, communication and mutual understanding.compromise, communication and mutual understanding.

• Peace is a state of tranquility and stillness, as well as the absence of war or violence.Peace is a state of tranquility and stillness, as well as the absence of war or violence.• Peace connotes compact, agreement, treaty of peace, tranquility, absence of hostility, harmony; Peace connotes compact, agreement, treaty of peace, tranquility, absence of hostility, harmony;

various personal greetings (salaam or aloha) or farewell (RIP, rest in peace); justice, good health, various personal greetings (salaam or aloha) or farewell (RIP, rest in peace); justice, good health, safety, well-being, prosperity, equity, security, good fortune, and friendliness.safety, well-being, prosperity, equity, security, good fortune, and friendliness.

• Peaceful behavior is kind, considerate, respectful, just, and tolerant, manifesting goodwill.Peaceful behavior is kind, considerate, respectful, just, and tolerant, manifesting goodwill.• Peaceful life is the peace of mind and body Peaceful life is the peace of mind and body • True peace is freedom for knowledge and creation, science and technology, human development True peace is freedom for knowledge and creation, science and technology, human development

and total prosperity. and total prosperity. • War is destructive disruption, Peace is creative disruption. War is destructive disruption, Peace is creative disruption. •

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War vs. PeaceWar vs. Peace• What is War or Warfare?What is War or Warfare?• An absence of peace, the tranquility of An absence of peace, the tranquility of

order, freedom from fear of violenceorder, freedom from fear of violence• A form of political violence or intervention A form of political violence or intervention

marked by widespread armed conflict marked by widespread armed conflict between political communities (states and/or between political communities (states and/or non-state actors), extreme violence, non-state actors), extreme violence, ecological, social and economic destruction. ecological, social and economic destruction.

• A contest among peoples of armed hostilities A contest among peoples of armed hostilities of duration and magnitudeof duration and magnitude

• An armed conflict between societies An armed conflict between societies characterized by extreme hatred, violence, characterized by extreme hatred, violence, aggression, destruction, and mortality, aggression, destruction, and mortality, mutually destroying infrastructure, mutually destroying infrastructure, industries and communities, cities, states, industries and communities, cities, states, and nations or humanity as a whole by and nations or humanity as a whole by means of military forces, weaponry and means of military forces, weaponry and technologiestechnologies

• Ends of war: Ends of war: • geopolitical expansion, conquest, empire or geopolitical expansion, conquest, empire or

liberty, justice, honor and active peaceliberty, justice, honor and active peace• https://

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outline_of_war#Wars

• What is Peace?What is Peace?• Peace is the tranquility of order, freedom from Peace is the tranquility of order, freedom from

fear of violence, pain and suffering, craving and fear of violence, pain and suffering, craving and aversion, disturbance and agitation, riot and aversion, disturbance and agitation, riot and violence, a lack of conflict, the absence of violence, a lack of conflict, the absence of hostility, compromise, communication and hostility, compromise, communication and mutual understanding.mutual understanding.

• Peace is a state of tranquility and stillness, as Peace is a state of tranquility and stillness, as well as the absence of war or violence.well as the absence of war or violence.

• Peace connotes compact, agreement, treaty of Peace connotes compact, agreement, treaty of peace, tranquility, absence of hostility, harmony; peace, tranquility, absence of hostility, harmony; various personal greetings (salaam or aloha) or various personal greetings (salaam or aloha) or farewell (RIP, rest in peace); justice, good farewell (RIP, rest in peace); justice, good health, safety, well-being, prosperity, equity, health, safety, well-being, prosperity, equity, security, good fortune, and friendliness.security, good fortune, and friendliness.

• Peaceful behavior is kind, considerate, Peaceful behavior is kind, considerate, respectful, just, and tolerant, manifesting respectful, just, and tolerant, manifesting goodwill.goodwill.

• Peaceful life is the peace of mind and body Peaceful life is the peace of mind and body • True peace is freedom for knowledge and True peace is freedom for knowledge and

creation, science and technology, human creation, science and technology, human development and total prosperity. development and total prosperity.

• War is destructive disruption, Peace is creative War is destructive disruption, Peace is creative disruption. disruption.

•

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Kinds of WarKinds of War• Just war vs. Unjust war of aggression: wars of defense vs. wars of conquestJust war vs. Unjust war of aggression: wars of defense vs. wars of conquest• Religious wars: the propagation and defense of the faithReligious wars: the propagation and defense of the faith• Class warClass war• Civil war, a war between forces belonging to the same nation or political entityCivil war, a war between forces belonging to the same nation or political entity• War between states or international warWar between states or international war• International TerrorismInternational Terrorism• Locally global proxy warLocally global proxy war• World war, a global warfare involving all the world’s leading powersWorld war, a global warfare involving all the world’s leading powers

• Types of WarTypes of War• Conventional warfare, in which nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons are not usedConventional warfare, in which nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons are not used• Nuclear warfare, weapons are the primary method of achieving military victoryNuclear warfare, weapons are the primary method of achieving military victory• Total war, warfare by any possible means, disregarding the laws of war, placing no limits on legitimate Total war, warfare by any possible means, disregarding the laws of war, placing no limits on legitimate

military targets, using weapons and tactics resulting in significant civilian casualtiesmilitary targets, using weapons and tactics resulting in significant civilian casualties• Unconventional warfare, to achieve military victory through acquiescence, capitulation, or clandestine Unconventional warfare, to achieve military victory through acquiescence, capitulation, or clandestine

support for one side of an existing conflictsupport for one side of an existing conflict• Asymmetric warfare, a conflict between two populations of different levels of military capability or Asymmetric warfare, a conflict between two populations of different levels of military capability or

size: size: 1.1. Powerful states vs Primitive peoples: military expeditions, explorations, pacificationsPowerful states vs Primitive peoples: military expeditions, explorations, pacifications2.2. Small states: interventions, reprisalsSmall states: interventions, reprisals3.3. Internal groups: rebellions, insurrections, guerrilla warfareInternal groups: rebellions, insurrections, guerrilla warfare• Cyberwarfare involves the actions by a nation-state or international organization to attack and attempt Cyberwarfare involves the actions by a nation-state or international organization to attack and attempt

to damage another nation's information systemsto damage another nation's information systems• Hybrid warfare is a military strategy that combines conventional warfare, irregular warfare, terrorism, Hybrid warfare is a military strategy that combines conventional warfare, irregular warfare, terrorism,

mass communication propaganda and cyberwarfaremass communication propaganda and cyberwarfare

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Causes and Effects of WarCauses and Effects of War• Remote and proximate causes; real and seeming causes Remote and proximate causes; real and seeming causes • Biological factors: competitive behavior, animal warfare, food, possession, rivelry, Biological factors: competitive behavior, animal warfare, food, possession, rivelry,

dominance, territory, aggressiondominance, territory, aggression• Psychological drives, complexes, false images, aggressivenessPsychological drives, complexes, false images, aggressiveness• Social factors, socioeconomic systems of states, Social factors, socioeconomic systems of states, • Political factors, political institutions, autocratic governmentsPolitical factors, political institutions, autocratic governments• Economic factors, capitalism, new markets, natural resources, trade wars, sanctionsEconomic factors, capitalism, new markets, natural resources, trade wars, sanctions• Nationalism, national self-determination, national interestsNationalism, national self-determination, national interests• Religious factorsReligious factors• Military factors, military policy, arms race, mobilization economy, military preparationsMilitary factors, military policy, arms race, mobilization economy, military preparations

• Special-interest groups:Special-interest groups:• Politicians,Politicians,• Capitalists and financiers, Capitalists and financiers, • the military, military-industrial complex, the military, military-industrial complex, • military scientists and technologistsmilitary scientists and technologists

• Effects of WarEffects of War• Moral consequencesMoral consequences• Political consequencesPolitical consequences• Economic consequencesEconomic consequences• Social consequences, Demographic consequences,…Social consequences, Demographic consequences,…

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Measuring War and PeaceMeasuring War and Peace• The Global Peace Index produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace is a The Global Peace Index produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace is a

known effort to evaluate peacefulness in countries based on 23 indicators of the known effort to evaluate peacefulness in countries based on 23 indicators of the presence/absence of violence.presence/absence of violence.

• The last edition of the Index ranks 162 countries on their internal and external levels The last edition of the Index ranks 162 countries on their internal and external levels of peace.of peace.

• According to the 2015 Global Peace Index, Iceland is the most peaceful country in According to the 2015 Global Peace Index, Iceland is the most peaceful country in the world while Syria is the least peaceful one.the world while Syria is the least peaceful one.

• Fragile States Index(formerly known as the Failed States Index) created by the Fund Fragile States Index(formerly known as the Failed States Index) created by the Fund for Peace focuses on risk for instability or violence in 178 nations. for Peace focuses on risk for instability or violence in 178 nations.

• This index measures how fragile a state is by 12 indicators and subindicators that This index measures how fragile a state is by 12 indicators and subindicators that evaluate aspects of politics, social economy, and military facets in countries.evaluate aspects of politics, social economy, and military facets in countries.

• The 2015 Failed State Index reports that the most fragile nation is South Sudan, and The 2015 Failed State Index reports that the most fragile nation is South Sudan, and the least fragile one is Finland.the least fragile one is Finland.

• University of Maryland publishes the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger to University of Maryland publishes the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger to measure peace. measure peace.

• It grades 163 countries with 5 indicators, and pays the most attention to risk of It grades 163 countries with 5 indicators, and pays the most attention to risk of political instability or armed conflict over a three-year period. The most peaceful political instability or armed conflict over a three-year period. The most peaceful country is Slovenia, Afghanistan is the most conflicted nation. country is Slovenia, Afghanistan is the most conflicted nation.

• The Economist Intelligence Unit and George Mason University release indexes that The Economist Intelligence Unit and George Mason University release indexes that rank countries in terms of peacefulness.rank countries in terms of peacefulness.

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Global Peace and ViolenceGlobal Peace and Violence• The Global Peace Index Records a Historically Less The Global Peace Index Records a Historically Less

Peaceful and More Unequal WorldPeaceful and More Unequal World• The 2016 Global Peace Index (GPI) shows the The 2016 Global Peace Index (GPI) shows the

world became less peaceful in the last year, world became less peaceful in the last year, reinforcing the underlying trend of declining peace reinforcing the underlying trend of declining peace over the last decade. Results also show a growing over the last decade. Results also show a growing global inequality in peace, with the most peaceful global inequality in peace, with the most peaceful countries continuing to improve while the least countries continuing to improve while the least peaceful are falling into greater violence and peaceful are falling into greater violence and conflict.conflict.

• The 2016 GPI report provides a comprehensive The 2016 GPI report provides a comprehensive update on the state of peace. It shows that amidst update on the state of peace. It shows that amidst the global deterioration the world continues to the global deterioration the world continues to spend enormous resources on creating and spend enormous resources on creating and containing violence but very little on peace. The containing violence but very little on peace. The key to reversing the decline in peace is through key to reversing the decline in peace is through building Positive Peace - a holistic framework of building Positive Peace - a holistic framework of the key attitudes, institutions and structures which the key attitudes, institutions and structures which build peace in the long term. build peace in the long term.

• The economic impact of violence on the global The economic impact of violence on the global economy in 2015 was $13.6 trillion in purchasing economy in 2015 was $13.6 trillion in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. This figure represents power parity (PPP) terms. This figure represents 13.3 per cent of the world’s economic activity 13.3 per cent of the world’s economic activity (gross world product) or $1,876 for every person (gross world product) or $1,876 for every person in the world. in the world.

• To put this in perspective, it is approximately 11 To put this in perspective, it is approximately 11 times the size of global foreign direct investment. times the size of global foreign direct investment. Source: GPI 2016, Source: GPI 2016, http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/GPI%202016%20Report_2.pdf

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The Control of War and PeaceThe Control of War and Peace• DiplomacyDiplomacy, balance of power in the international system, equilibrium of armed forces, the , balance of power in the international system, equilibrium of armed forces, the

total destruction of the all-out war total destruction of the all-out war • Regional integrationRegional integration, NATO, NATO• Interregional cooperationInterregional cooperation• International lawInternational law, laws of war, legality and regulation, laws of war, legality and regulation• The United NationsThe United Nations• The League of Nations proposed by Kant and created at the Paris Peace Conference of 1919 as The League of Nations proposed by Kant and created at the Paris Peace Conference of 1919 as

a result of World War I; dissolved as a result of World War II and replaced by the United a result of World War I; dissolved as a result of World War II and replaced by the United Nations.Nations.

• The UN is charged to maintain international peace an security. In the period, it also failing to The UN is charged to maintain international peace an security. In the period, it also failing to stop wars between countries and to provide a platform for dialogue, to facilitate cooperation in stop wars between countries and to provide a platform for dialogue, to facilitate cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights, and achieving world peace.rights, and achieving world peace.

• The World Government, it is possible because it is necessaryThe World Government, it is possible because it is necessary• The UN is to be replaced by the World Federation of Nations; for either world government and The UN is to be replaced by the World Federation of Nations; for either world government and

real peace or world anarchy and war. real peace or world anarchy and war. • The danger of nuclear war of a general extermination of mankind is the last argument for “the The danger of nuclear war of a general extermination of mankind is the last argument for “the

world government, which is necessary for the world”. world government, which is necessary for the world”. Dante, De Monarchia Dante, De Monarchia • It should be instituted a single wise government comprising all mankind “by common law to It should be instituted a single wise government comprising all mankind “by common law to

lead all toward peace”. lead all toward peace”. Kant. The Idea of a Universal History on a Cosmo-Political Plan. Kant. The Idea of a Universal History on a Cosmo-Political Plan. • ““Things hate to be in disorder, but a plurality of authorities is disorder; therefore authority is Things hate to be in disorder, but a plurality of authorities is disorder; therefore authority is

single”. Aristotle single”. Aristotle •

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Global Military Expenditures: Global Military Expenditures: “Making War for Sake of Peace” “Making War for Sake of Peace” • World total - $1,676.0 Bn; 2.3% of GDPWorld total - $1,676.0 Bn; 2.3% of GDP

• Sources:Sources:•  "Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2015"

 (PDF). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Retrieved 5 April 2016.

• International Institute for Strategic Studies (11 February 2015). The Military Balance 2015. London: Routledge. ISBN 1857437667.

• "Top 15 Defence Budgets 2015". International Institute for Strategic Studies. Retrieved 12 July 2016.

• For the period 2010-14, the United States was the For the period 2010-14, the United States was the world's biggest exporter of major arms, accounting world's biggest exporter of major arms, accounting for 31 percent of global shares, followed by Russia for 31 percent of global shares, followed by Russia with 27 percent. with 27 percent.

• The USA delivered weapons to at least 94 recipients.The USA delivered weapons to at least 94 recipients.• Permanent 5 Members of the UN Security

Council: China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States, are the world's largest arms exportersorld's largest arms exporters

• 2014 rank2014 rank SupplierSupplier Arms exportsArms exports• 11 United States United States

1019410194• 22 Russia Russia 59715971• 33 China China 19781978• 44 United Kingdom 1200 United Kingdom 1200• The units are expressed in millions of U.S. dollars at The units are expressed in millions of U.S. dollars at

1990s prices. 1990s prices.

• RankRank CountryCountry Spending ($ Bn.)Spending ($ Bn.)• 11 United States 597.5United States 597.5• 22 ChinaChina 145.8145.8• 33 Saudi Arabia 81.9Saudi Arabia 81.9• 44 Russia Russia 65.665.6• 55 United Kingdom United Kingdom 56.256.2• 66 India India 48.048.0• 77 France France 46.846.8• 88 Japan Japan 41.041.0• 99 Germany Germany 36.736.7• 1010 South Korea South Korea 33.533.5• 1111 Brazil Brazil 24.324.3• 1212 Australia Australia 22.822.8• 1313 Italy Italy 21.621.6• 1414 Iraq Iraq 21.121.1• 1515 Israel Israel 18.618.6• List by the International Institute for Strategic List by the International Institute for Strategic

StudiesStudies• Top 15 Defence Budgets 2015Top 15 Defence Budgets 2015

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

The World's Largest Arms ExportersThe World's Largest Arms ExportersPermanent 5 Members of the UN Permanent 5 Members of the UN

Security CouncilSecurity Council

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev

2013-2016

The War Industry vs Peace The War Industry vs Peace Industry: Industry: Military-Industrial Complex 1.0 Military-Industrial Complex 1.0

vs Military-Industrial Complex 2.0vs Military-Industrial Complex 2.0• The War Industry, simulated as The War Industry, simulated as the arms industry, defense industry or the arms trade , is a , is a

global industry responsible for the manufacturing and sales of weapons and military global industry responsible for the manufacturing and sales of weapons and military technology. technology.

• It consists of a commercial industry involved in the research and development, engineering, It consists of a commercial industry involved in the research and development, engineering, production, and servicing of military material, equipment, and facilities. production, and servicing of military material, equipment, and facilities.

• Arms-producing companies, also referred to as arms dealers, defense contractors, or as the Arms-producing companies, also referred to as arms dealers, defense contractors, or as the military industry, produce arms mainly for the armed forces of states. military industry, produce arms mainly for the armed forces of states.

• Departments of government also operate in the arms industry, buying and selling weapons, Departments of government also operate in the arms industry, buying and selling weapons, munitions and other military items. munitions and other military items.

• Products include guns, artillery, ammunition, missiles, military aircraft, military vehicles, ships, Products include guns, artillery, ammunition, missiles, military aircraft, military vehicles, ships, electronic systems, night vision devices, holographic weapon sights, laser rangefinders, laser electronic systems, night vision devices, holographic weapon sights, laser rangefinders, laser sights, hand grenades, landmines and more. The arms industry also provides other logistical sights, hand grenades, landmines and more. The arms industry also provides other logistical and operational support.and operational support.

• The peace–industrial complex defines the industry and economy derived from development, defines the industry and economy derived from development, peacemaking, peacebuilding, and conflict resolution at both the domestic and foreign levels.peacemaking, peacebuilding, and conflict resolution at both the domestic and foreign levels.

• It is turning military research and development into civilian technology as systematically as It is turning military research and development into civilian technology as systematically as possiblepossible

• This is the military-industrial complex 2.0, which is interested in weapons of mass construction This is the military-industrial complex 2.0, which is interested in weapons of mass construction rather than weapons of mass destruction because these weapons are the future in terms of rather than weapons of mass destruction because these weapons are the future in terms of power.power.

• In political philosophy and international relations, especially in peace and conflict studies, the In political philosophy and international relations, especially in peace and conflict studies, the concept of a concept of a war against war also known as war on war refers to the reification of armed refers to the reification of armed conflicts. conflicts.

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev

2013-2016

Military IntelligenceMilitary Intelligence• Strategic Intelligence of foreign power, armed force, target, physical environment Strategic Intelligence of foreign power, armed force, target, physical environment • Tactical IntelligenceTactical Intelligence• Sources of IntelligenceSources of Intelligence• Acoustics, sensors, nuclear submarinesAcoustics, sensors, nuclear submarines• Imagery of objects, activities, terrain, optical, infrared, ultravioletImagery of objects, activities, terrain, optical, infrared, ultraviolet• Signals, communications, electronics, telemetrySignals, communications, electronics, telemetry• Radiation, electromagneticRadiation, electromagnetic• Foreign materialForeign material• Human agentsHuman agents

• Types of IntelligenceTypes of Intelligence• Armed forces, enemies strengths and weaknessesArmed forces, enemies strengths and weaknesses• Biographical intelligenceBiographical intelligence• Cartographic and Geographic intelligenceCartographic and Geographic intelligence• Economic intelligenceEconomic intelligence• Energy intelligence, policies, plans, programsEnergy intelligence, policies, plans, programs• CounterintelligenceCounterintelligence• Sociological intelligenceSociological intelligence• Transportation, computing and telecommunicationTransportation, computing and telecommunication• The USA expenses on military intelligence exceed $80bn, what is over the Russian The USA expenses on military intelligence exceed $80bn, what is over the Russian

military budgetmilitary budget

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev

2013-2016

Strategy in the Nuclear Age: MAD Strategy in the Nuclear Age: MAD PhilosophyPhilosophy

• Philosophy of MAD, Mutual Assured DestructionPhilosophy of MAD, Mutual Assured Destruction• Nuclear doctrineNuclear doctrine• Nuclear weapons as the ultimate catastrophe Nuclear weapons as the ultimate catastrophe • Atomic bombs & Thermonuclear bombsAtomic bombs & Thermonuclear bombs• Nuclear wars, local or globalNuclear wars, local or global• First and second strikeFirst and second strike• Antinuclear defense, START, INF treaty, SDF, Star WarsAntinuclear defense, START, INF treaty, SDF, Star Wars• ICBM, intercontinental ballistic missileICBM, intercontinental ballistic missile• MIRVed ICBMsMIRVed ICBMs• Strategic Nuclear Forces, Cosmic ForcesStrategic Nuclear Forces, Cosmic Forces• USA & NATOUSA & NATO• CHINA & RUSSIACHINA & RUSSIA• Global Nuclear deterrence, SKYNET, Encyclopedic Intelligence Global Nuclear deterrence, SKYNET, Encyclopedic Intelligence

Global Platform Global Platform WAR & PEACE All Rights

Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

Locally Global Proxy Wars: Locally Global Proxy Wars: the Arab the Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War Spring and the Syrian Civil War

• The war caused by the unrest of the 2011 Arab Spring, a revolutionary wave of both The war caused by the unrest of the 2011 Arab Spring, a revolutionary wave of both violent and non-violent demonstrations, protests, riots, coups and civil wars in the violent and non-violent demonstrations, protests, riots, coups and civil wars in the Arab world (since 17 December 2010 in Tunisia) and spread throughout the Arab world (since 17 December 2010 in Tunisia) and spread throughout the countries of the Arab League and its surroundings. countries of the Arab League and its surroundings.

• Major insurgencies and civil wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen resulted along Major insurgencies and civil wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen resulted along with civil uprisings in Bahrain and Egypt, large street demonstrations in Algeria, with civil uprisings in Bahrain and Egypt, large street demonstrations in Algeria, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman and Sudan and minor protests in Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman and Sudan and minor protests in Djibouti, Mauritania, the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and the Djibouti, Mauritania, the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and the Western Sahara.Western Sahara.

• Large-scale conflicts resulted -- the Syrian Civil War, Iraqi insurgency and the Large-scale conflicts resulted -- the Syrian Civil War, Iraqi insurgency and the following civil war, the Egyptian Crisis and coup, the Libyan Crisis, and the Crisis in following civil war, the Egyptian Crisis and coup, the Libyan Crisis, and the Crisis in Yemen.Yemen.

• The war is now being fought among several factions: the Syrian Government and its The war is now being fought among several factions: the Syrian Government and its various supporters, a loose alliance of Syrian Arab rebel groups, the Syrian various supporters, a loose alliance of Syrian Arab rebel groups, the Syrian Democratic Forces, Salafi jihadist groups (including al-Nusra Front) who often co-Democratic Forces, Salafi jihadist groups (including al-Nusra Front) who often co-operate with the rebels, and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). operate with the rebels, and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

• The violence in Syria has caused millions to flee their homes. As of March 2015, Al-The violence in Syria has caused millions to flee their homes. As of March 2015, Al-Jazeera estimates 10.9 million Syrians, or almost half the population, have been Jazeera estimates 10.9 million Syrians, or almost half the population, have been displaced. 3.8 million have been made refugees.displaced. 3.8 million have been made refugees.

• The factions receive substantial support from foreign actors, leading many to label The factions receive substantial support from foreign actors, leading many to label the conflict a proxy war waged by both regional and global powers. the conflict a proxy war waged by both regional and global powers.

• See the Arab Spring and The Syrian Civil War Wiki ArticlesSee the Arab Spring and The Syrian Civil War Wiki Articles

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

A New Type of War: A New Type of War: hybrid war, hybrid war, hybrid warfare, hybrid threat, or hybrid hybrid warfare, hybrid threat, or hybrid

adversaryadversary• ““diverse and dynamic combinations of conventional, irregular, terrorist and criminal diverse and dynamic combinations of conventional, irregular, terrorist and criminal capabilities.”capabilities.”

• ““any adversary that simultaneously and adaptively employs a tailored mix of conventional, any adversary that simultaneously and adaptively employs a tailored mix of conventional, irregular, terrorism and criminal means or activities in the operational battle space. Rather than irregular, terrorism and criminal means or activities in the operational battle space. Rather than a single entity, a hybrid threat or challenger may be a combination of state and nonstate actors.”a single entity, a hybrid threat or challenger may be a combination of state and nonstate actors.”

• ““the diverse and dynamic combination of regular forces, irregular forces, criminal elements, or a the diverse and dynamic combination of regular forces, irregular forces, criminal elements, or a combination of these forces and elements all unified to achieve mutually benefiting effects.”combination of these forces and elements all unified to achieve mutually benefiting effects.”

• ““adversaries with the ability to simultaneously employ conventional and non-conventional means adversaries with the ability to simultaneously employ conventional and non-conventional means adaptively in pursuit of their objectives.”adaptively in pursuit of their objectives.”

• ““A hybrid of irregular warfare and conventional warfare.”A hybrid of irregular warfare and conventional warfare.”• A hybrid war takes place on three distinct battlefields: the conventional battlefield, the A hybrid war takes place on three distinct battlefields: the conventional battlefield, the

indigenous population of the conflict zone, and the international community where directed an indigenous population of the conflict zone, and the international community where directed an influx of refugees to destabilize the areas and regions in terms of economy and to create social influx of refugees to destabilize the areas and regions in terms of economy and to create social unrest.unrest.

• «гибридная война» используется для осуществления единства действий с применением «гибридная война» используется для осуществления единства действий с применением ядерного, биологического и химического оружия, самодельных взрывных устройств и ядерного, биологического и химического оружия, самодельных взрывных устройств и средств информационной войны.средств информационной войны. Сюда включаются "неявные военные действия", Сюда включаются "неявные военные действия", "нелинейные", "асимметричные", "нетрадиционные" и "гибридные" операции."нелинейные", "асимметричные", "нетрадиционные" и "гибридные" операции.

• В современных условиях этот исторически новый подход к разрешению конфликтов В современных условиях этот исторически новый подход к разрешению конфликтов является ведущим видом войны.является ведущим видом войны.

• See Hybrid warfare Wiki ArticleSee Hybrid warfare Wiki Article• "HYBRID WAR: A NEW PARADIGM FOR STABILITY OPERATIONS IN FAILING STATES" "HYBRID WAR: A NEW PARADIGM FOR STABILITY OPERATIONS IN FAILING STATES"

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev

2013-2016

Hybrid WarfareHybrid Warfare: : the case of Russiathe case of Russia• Россия втягивается в новый тип войн

ближайшего будущего, гибридные войны, отмеченные следующими признаками:

• Новаторская стратегия и мобильная тактика и нетрадиционные конфликты с участием наемников, повстанцев, советников и/или добровольцев, негосударственных структур, партизанов, интервентов и частных армий

• «Цветные революции» и капитализация внешних (территориальных конфликтов) и внутренних противоречий (этнических, социальных, экономических, политических и т.д.)

• Стимулируемая коррупция (почти каждый чиновник коррупционер имеет зарубежную собственность), терроризм, криминальная экономика и внутренняя диверсия, торговля людьми и триллионный мировой наркотрафик (каждая третья жертва из России)

• Трудовая миграция бедности и массовое вынужденное переселение

• Информационные войны и коммерческая пропаганда СМИ импортных товаров

• Кибер-войны, новейшие технологии и финансово-экономические операции

• Экономические санкции и политическая изоляция

• Постоянная угроза глобального конфликта и необходимость увеличения военных расходов.

•  

• РОССИЯ – ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЙ СОЮЗРОССИЯ – ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЙ СОЮЗ• РОССИЯ – СШАРОССИЯ – США• РОССИЯ - НАТОРОССИЯ - НАТО• РОССИЯ & СИРИЯ & ИРАН & ИРАК – РОССИЯ & СИРИЯ & ИРАН & ИРАК –

ИГИЛ & ТУРЦИЯ & КАТАР & ИГИЛ & ТУРЦИЯ & КАТАР & САУДАВСКАЯ АРАВИЯ САУДАВСКАЯ АРАВИЯ

• РОССИЯ – УКРАИНА РОССИЯ – УКРАИНА & & НАТОНАТО• РОССИЯ – ТУРЦИЯРОССИЯ – ТУРЦИЯ & & НАТОНАТО• ИГИЛ – КОАЛИЦИЯ СШАИГИЛ – КОАЛИЦИЯ США• ИГИЛ – ЕВРОПА & ФРАНЦИЯ & ИГИЛ – ЕВРОПА & ФРАНЦИЯ &

ГЕРМАНИЯ & ВЕЛИКОБРИТАНИЯГЕРМАНИЯ & ВЕЛИКОБРИТАНИЯ• ТУРЦИЯ - ЕВРОПАТУРЦИЯ - ЕВРОПА• Ведение санкционной войныВедение санкционной войны• Ведение информационной войныВедение информационной войны• Расширение НАТОРасширение НАТО• Продвижение военной инфраструктуры Продвижение военной инфраструктуры

НАТО и т.д.НАТО и т.д.•  

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

FUTURE WEAPONSFUTURE WEAPONS• Airborne laser (Advanced Tactical Laser, 

High Energy Liquid Laser Area Defense System) • Antimatter weapon • Caseless ammunition • Directed energy weapon • Electrolaser • Electromagnetic weapons • Electrothermal-chemical technology • Particle beam weapon • Plasma weapon • Pure fusion weapon • Sonic weapon • Stealth technology, Plasma stealth, Stealth aircraft, Radar-absorbent material• Vortex ring gun• Information, or Cyber Warfare Weapons (Smart Cyber Security

Systems and Tools)• SMART WEAPONRY, CYBER WARFARE AND INTELLIGENT DEFENCE

SYSTEMSWAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-

2016

FUTURE WAR:FUTURE WAR:World War 3, or Cyber Warfare World War 3, or Cyber Warfare

• World War 3: With Advancement in World War 3: With Advancement in Technology, Information Warfare to be Technology, Information Warfare to be the Next Domain of Conflictthe Next Domain of Conflict

• War should now be seen as being conducted in five War should now be seen as being conducted in five domains: in the air and in space, on sea and on domains: in the air and in space, on sea and on land, and also in the information environment. land, and also in the information environment.

• Cyber warfare is becoming more and more powerful Cyber warfare is becoming more and more powerful in today's battlefield. Effective use of cyber in today's battlefield. Effective use of cyber technologies can gain dominance on the battlefield technologies can gain dominance on the battlefield or force the enemy to retreat by shutting down its or force the enemy to retreat by shutting down its command infrastructure or communication command infrastructure or communication network. The role of Cyber Warfare is seen to be network. The role of Cyber Warfare is seen to be growing due to the digitization of conventional growing due to the digitization of conventional warfare technologies as well as using more complex warfare technologies as well as using more complex devices to do more damage than they could in past. devices to do more damage than they could in past.

• Whilst discussing about nations, Cyber Warfare is Whilst discussing about nations, Cyber Warfare is not just limited to governments attacking not just limited to governments attacking governments. Any part of the critical infrastructure governments. Any part of the critical infrastructure may be subject to attack, from banking and utilities may be subject to attack, from banking and utilities to transport or the supply of essential goods and to transport or the supply of essential goods and commodities. "Cyber Threats" include every threat commodities. "Cyber Threats" include every threat that can be carried out over the internet. Cyber that can be carried out over the internet. Cyber crimes cost countries billions of dollars every year.crimes cost countries billions of dollars every year.

• By 2020, there will be approximately 927 Satellites By 2020, there will be approximately 927 Satellites (Communication – 405; Earth Observation – 151; (Communication – 405; Earth Observation – 151; Navigation Navigation – 85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D– 85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D – 75) – 75)

• Top 20 Global Mega Trends and their Impact of Top 20 Global Mega Trends and their Impact of Business, Cultures and Society. Frost & Business, Cultures and Society. Frost & Sullivan Sullivan

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

A QUANTUM LEAP TO THE POST-WORLD 3.0 A QUANTUM LEAP TO THE POST-WORLD 3.0 • The process of rise-and-collapse of advanced civilizations at industrial stage World 1.0 and The process of rise-and-collapse of advanced civilizations at industrial stage World 1.0 and

information stage World 2.0 is a recurrent cycle, as it’s found throughout history. information stage World 2.0 is a recurrent cycle, as it’s found throughout history. • There are two key social features that contributed to the collapse of every single advanced There are two key social features that contributed to the collapse of every single advanced

civilization from the past: civilization from the past: • ““the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity”; the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity”; • ““the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or “Commoners”) [poor]”the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or “Commoners”) [poor]”• These social phenomena have played “a central role in the character or in the process of the These social phenomena have played “a central role in the character or in the process of the

collapse” over “the last five thousand years.”collapse” over “the last five thousand years.”• Even though the civilization is at a very advanced technological stage, this does not Even though the civilization is at a very advanced technological stage, this does not

necessarily mean that it is saved from imminent chaos. necessarily mean that it is saved from imminent chaos. • ““Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both

per capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy per capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of effects, the increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use.”resource use.”

• The civilization “…. appears to be on a sustainable path for quite a long time, but even using The civilization “…. appears to be on a sustainable path for quite a long time, but even using an optimal depletion rate and starting with a very small number of Elites, the Elites eventually an optimal depletion rate and starting with a very small number of Elites, the Elites eventually consume too much, resulting in a famine among Commoners that eventually causes the consume too much, resulting in a famine among Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society. ”collapse of society. ”

• The instability of human-nature system, natural disasters, the depletion of natural resources, The instability of human-nature system, natural disasters, the depletion of natural resources, invasions, or government mismanagement are the causes of the collapse of ancient empires invasions, or government mismanagement are the causes of the collapse of ancient empires and as well as complex industrial and information civilizationsand as well as complex industrial and information civilizations..

• Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY): Modeling Inequality and Sustainability, NASA-funded study, 2016 , NASA-funded study, 2016 • Climate Engineering, Weather Warfare, and the Collapse of Civilization ; ; The Collapse of Complex Societies• NB. The geopolitical risks of the total or partial Civilization Collapse (of human communities, NB. The geopolitical risks of the total or partial Civilization Collapse (of human communities,

entire ways of life, systems of thought, cultural values and worldviews) disappear only with entire ways of life, systems of thought, cultural values and worldviews) disappear only with the World 3.0, POST-WORLD. the World 3.0, POST-WORLD.

•

CREATING THE FUTURE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2017

Building the WORLD of TomorrowBuilding the WORLD of Tomorrow• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/creating-the-future-tomorrows-world• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smartworl-dabr• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/shaping-the-future-world• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/innovation-platform• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eco-world-commandments• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smart-world• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/future-world-27173937• http://eu-smartcities.eu/blog/smart-superpowers-projects-states-powers-great-power

s-and-hyperpowers• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/superpowers-smart-states-global-initiative• http://eu-smartcities.eu/content/become-smart-nation-build-your-brand-name• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/future-world-branding • http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smart-revolution• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/i-world-state • http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/intelligent-global-government• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/world-tomorrow • http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/intelligent-world• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eis-global-innovation-platform

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev

2013-2016

THE FUTURE WORLD THE FUTURE WORLD INITIATIVES: INITIATIVES:

The World Federation of Smart Nations The World Federation of Smart Nations • For more on the Future World visions, strategies, challenges and projects, visit the links as below:• BUILDING INTELLIGENT WORLD• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/creating-the-future-tomorrows-world• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smartworl-dabr• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/future-world-27173937• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/iworld-25498222• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smart-revolution • THE FUTURE WORLD ACTIONS• Smart Sustainable Cities Global Initiative• Smart Sustainable Nations Global Initiative• Smart Sustainable Superpower Global Initiative• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eco-world-commandments • CHINA-RUSSIA-EUROPE SMART SILK ROAD• THE FUTURE EUROPE ACTIONS• European Innovation Partnership on Smart Cities and Communities• Smart Urban Europe Agenda• Smart Green Europe Development Projects (to be submitted under Juncker’s Investment in Europe Fund)• THE FUTURE RUSSIA ACTIONS• Smart Green Russia (to be submitted under the National Well-Being Fund and Pension Fund)• http://www.iiisyla.livejournal.com• THE FUTURE WORLD ECONOMY • https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/replacing-capitalist-world-economy-smart-world-azamat-abdoullaev • http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/demise-of-capitalism • http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/replacing-world-capitalism •  •  

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

WORLD X.0 DIGITAL PLATFORM• EIS ENCYCLOPEDIC INTELLIGENCE DIGITAL PLATFORM: GLOBAL INNOVATION AND

DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY PLATFORMENCYCLOPEDIC INTELLIGENCE I: http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/encyclopedic-intelligence ENCYCLOPEDIC INTELLIGENCE II: http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/encyclopedic-intelligence-24260973 ENCYCLOPEDIC INTELLIGENCE III: http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/encyclopedic-intelligence-global-marketing ENCYCLOPEDIC INTELLIGENCE IV: http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/encyclopedic-intelligence-big-science-and-technology ENCYCLOPEDIC INTELLIGENCE V: http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/global-intelligence-26413485

• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eis-global-innovation-platform • http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eis-ltd ; http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/eis-limited-28850348 • http://eu-smartcities.eu/blog/smart-superpowers-projects-states-powers-great-powers-and-hyperpowers; http://www.

slideshare.net/ashabook/superpowers-smart-states-global-initiative • http://eu-smartcities.eu/blog/smart-superpowers-projects-states-powers-great-powers-and-hyperpowers; http://www.

slideshare.net/ashabook/superpowers-smart-states-global-initiative • http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/creating-the-future-tomorrows-world • http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/innovation-platform • http://eu-smartcities.eu/users/azamat-abdoullaev-asha • http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/presentations • EIS Encyclopedic Intelligent Systems Ltd (EU)

•

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

The FUTURE WORLD FEDERATION: The FUTURE WORLD FEDERATION: Strategic Counselling TopicsStrategic Counselling Topics

• SMART WORLD Policy, Plan, Program, Projects, Products, SMART WORLD Policy, Plan, Program, Projects, Products, PeoplesPeoples

• FUTURE COUNTRY ConstructionFUTURE COUNTRY Construction• SUSTAINABLE CITY, AND FUTURE COMMUNITY SUSTAINABLE CITY, AND FUTURE COMMUNITY • BIG SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BIG SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY • SMART INNOVATION SMART INNOVATION • INTELLIGENT INFRASTRUCTURE AND IINNOVATIVE NDUSTRY INTELLIGENT INFRASTRUCTURE AND IINNOVATIVE NDUSTRY • SMART POWERS AND INTELLIGENT NATIONS DEVELOPMENT SMART POWERS AND INTELLIGENT NATIONS DEVELOPMENT

STRATEGIES (to be licensed to interested government bodies): STRATEGIES (to be licensed to interested government bodies): • i-USA, i-USA, • i-EU, i-EU, • i-CHINA, i-CHINA, • i-JAPAN, i-JAPAN, • i-RUSSIA, i-RUSSIA, • i-GERMANY, i-GERMANY, • i-GREAT BRITAIN, etc.i-GREAT BRITAIN, etc.

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

Disrupting the Old World W1.0 Disrupting the Old World W1.0 and Creating the New World X.0and Creating the New World X.0

• The first 2015 Smart World Congress in China is following the Smart World™ Concept, http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smartworl-dabr, as unifying Physical, Social, Cyber, and Mental Worlds (see the picture): http://www.cybermatics.org/

• The India’s government initiative is to create 100 Smart Cities across the country “to drive economic growth and improve the quality of life of people by enabling local area development and harnessing smart solutions”.

• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/sustainable-city

• The future-wise governments and smart businesses are to rely on the Smart World Intelligence and Services while planning and implementing sustainable national developments or large-scale innovative strategies and projects.

• The World X.0 concept is to guide the future development policy, strategy, innovations, and community planning, as India’s Smart Cities Mission estimated as US$ 1.2 trillion over the next 20 years or Chinese smart and green cities developments projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2025.

• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/china-smart-eco-power

•

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

Shaping the Peaceful Shaping the Peaceful WorldWorld

• VISION AND MISSION to reverse the total destruction of the world and humanityto reverse climate change through sustainable smart communities to establish total peace and wise world government

• Vision, Innovation and Technology shape the New World of Perpetual Peace

• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/creating-the-future-tomorrows-world

http://www.lulu.com/spotlight/shamash http://iworldx.wix.com/smart-world http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/presentations SMART WORLD: http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/smartworl-dabr

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2013-2016

SHAPING A PEACEFUL WORLD SHAPING A PEACEFUL WORLD • The worldwide crisis might continue concurrently with the regional wars and

sweeping social unrest, ultimately ending up with any of 3 future scenarios:• the Intelligent World Order, a Smart World of Intelligence, Innovation,

Integration and Prosperity, as the World Federation ruled by the Wise World Government

• the Ubiquitous Global Chaos (of a “multipolar world” style) • the Military World State (of an IGIL style) • To show a possibility of the World Peace World, the

Smart Superpower Global Initiative has been launched considering as the potential superpowers of the 21st century:

• Europe (intellectual and socio-political capital), • China (human and economic capital), • Russia (ecological capital), • America (technological and military capital),• India (human resources and cultural capital). • Smart Sustainable Cities Global Initiative• Smart Sustainable Nations Global Initiative• Smart Sustainable Superpower Global Initiative• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/world-tomorrow ;

http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/intelligent-world• http://www.slideshare.net/ashabook/shaping-the-future-world

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016

Global Community 2.0: Global Community 2.0: Towards World Towards World Polity and Global Governance Polity and Global Governance

• The idea of Global Human Community and World Governance is inherent in the human nature from The idea of Global Human Community and World Governance is inherent in the human nature from the very ancient time, known as the trade routes of the Silk Way and great empires aimed to rule the very ancient time, known as the trade routes of the Silk Way and great empires aimed to rule “All That the Sun Encircles”, “All from the Sunrise to the Sunset”, “All under Heaven”, “All under “All That the Sun Encircles”, “All from the Sunrise to the Sunset”, “All under Heaven”, “All under Moon”, etc., all striving for "World empire" or "World state“ and the New World Peace Order. Moon”, etc., all striving for "World empire" or "World state“ and the New World Peace Order.

• The 20The 20thth century and the start of the 21 century and the start of the 21stst age have seen big but futile attempts in organizing the age have seen big but futile attempts in organizing the world as one peaceful system:world as one peaceful system:

1)1) The League of Nations, an inter-governmental organization as a result of the Treaty of Versailles in 1919–The League of Nations, an inter-governmental organization as a result of the Treaty of Versailles in 1919–19201920

2)2) The United Nations (UN), an inter-governmental organization coordinating activities between states on a The United Nations (UN), an inter-governmental organization coordinating activities between states on a global scale, with a universal membership (193 governments) global scale, with a universal membership (193 governments)

3)3) The UN's Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), such as the World Health Organization, the The UN's Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), such as the World Health Organization, the International Labor Organization, International Telecommunications Union; the World Bank, the International Labor Organization, International Telecommunications Union; the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade OrganizationInternational Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization

4)4) Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 30 membersOrganization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 30 members5)5) G7, a group consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United G7, a group consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United

States to coordinate the policies in poverty, terrorism, infectious diseases, and climate changeStates to coordinate the policies in poverty, terrorism, infectious diseases, and climate change6)6) G20, an association of twenty developing and established nations and entities, including the European G20, an association of twenty developing and established nations and entities, including the European

UnionUnion7)7) The global market, trans-national (or multi-national) corporations, trans-continental digital The global market, trans-national (or multi-national) corporations, trans-continental digital

communications and global mass-media, the Internet, satellite and mobile networks, the internet of communications and global mass-media, the Internet, satellite and mobile networks, the internet of everything, etc.everything, etc.

8)8) Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, as reviving the Ancient Silk Road Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, as reviving the Ancient Silk Road 9)9) Trans-Pacific Partnership to create the largest trading bloc on the planet (The United States, Canada, Trans-Pacific Partnership to create the largest trading bloc on the planet (The United States, Canada,

Japan, Mexico, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam, with a total Japan, Mexico, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam, with a total population of about 800 million people and a combined GDP of 28 trillion dollars)population of about 800 million people and a combined GDP of 28 trillion dollars)

10)10) Transnational Unions, the European Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Commonwealth of Transnational Unions, the European Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Commonwealth of Independent StatesIndependent States

11)11) Regional unions of nations >>>Regional unions of nations >>>WAR & PEACE All Rights

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Regional Unions of Nations Regional Unions of Nations •• African Union (AU)African Union (AU)•• Arab LeagueArab League•• Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)•• Caribbean Community (CARICOM)Caribbean Community (CARICOM)•• Central American Integration System (SICA)Central American Integration System (SICA)•• Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)•• Commonwealth of NationsCommonwealth of Nations•• Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG)Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG)•• East African Community (EAC)East African Community (EAC)•• Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)•• North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)•• Organization of American States (OAS)Organization of American States (OAS)•• South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)•• Turkic Council (TurkKon)Turkic Council (TurkKon)•• Union of South American Nations (UNASUR)Union of South American Nations (UNASUR)•• Union StateUnion State•• Arab League or an "Arab Union"Arab League or an "Arab Union"•• Caribbean Community (CARICOM) or a "Caribbean Federation"Caribbean Community (CARICOM) or a "Caribbean Federation"•• North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) into a "North American North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) into a "North American Union"Union"•• Pacific Islands Forum into a "Pacific Union“, etc.Pacific Islands Forum into a "Pacific Union“, etc.

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev

2013-2016

World X.0: New Universal Agenda & World X.0: New Universal Agenda & World GovernmentWorld Government

• New globally inegrating technology and sustainable world development strategy, as Agenda 21 and the 2030 Agenda, show the human-wise way to the New United Nations, the World Federation of Nations, the global unity of world community, commonwealth, polity, executive, legislature, and judiciary, all voted by direct democracy.

• The World Federation of Nations means• One Global Governance System, • One World Economic System, • One World Social System, • One World Religion,• Perpetual Peace and end of Wars, local and global,• The Smart Connected World of global market, trans-national (or multi-national)

corporations, trans-continental digital communications and global mass-media, the Internet, satellite and mobile networks, the internet of everything, etc.

• World government is to emerge as a common socio-technological political authority for all of humanity, yielding a global governance and a single world state that has authority over the entire Earth.

• Such a government could come into existence through peaceful and voluntary supranational union.

• World Government is a worldwide executive, legislature, judiciary, military, and constitution with global jurisdiction.

• “The World is but one country and mankind its citizens”.WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev

2013-2016

UN Agenda 2030: UN Agenda 2030: Post-2015 Sustainable Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals Development Goals • Beyond GDPBeyond GDP

• TourismTourism• Community culture and spiritualityCommunity culture and spirituality• Corporate social responsibilityCorporate social responsibility• Information and communications technologyInformation and communications technology• ForestsForests• Land managementLand management• Good governanceGood governance• Green economyGreen economy• Peace and securityPeace and security• Transport and infrastructureTransport and infrastructure• Waste managementWaste management• DesertificationDesertification• EquityEquity• BiodiversityBiodiversity• Disaster risk reductionDisaster risk reduction• Oceans and seasOceans and seas• Economy and macroeconomic stabilityEconomy and macroeconomic stability• Cities and housingCities and housing• Sustainable consumption and productionSustainable consumption and production• GenderGender• EmploymentEmployment• Environment/management of natural resourcesEnvironment/management of natural resources• Climate changeClimate change• Means of implementationMeans of implementation• HealthHealth• Poverty eradicationPoverty eradication• EducationEducation• EnergyEnergy• Water and sanitationWater and sanitation• Food security and sustainable agriculture.Food security and sustainable agriculture.

WAR & PEACE All Rights Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev

2013-2016

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY XXI: SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY XXI: Shaping the World and Humanity of TomorrowShaping the World and Humanity of Tomorrow• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Physics and Technology of the 21st Century, New Physica; Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Physics and Technology of the 21st Century, New Physica;

EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-2-9EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-2-9• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Disrupting Modern Science, Technology and Engineering Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Disrupting Modern Science, Technology and Engineering

with Wisdom Science; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN with Wisdom Science; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-7-4978-9963-2202-7-4

• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Wise World Wide Web and Technological Singularity; EIS ; Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Wise World Wide Web and Technological Singularity; EIS ; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-4-3EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-4-3

• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Wise Encyclopedia for Minds and Machines; EIS; EU, Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Wise Encyclopedia for Minds and Machines; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-5-0Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-5-0

• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, NEW WISDOM BOOK, Universal Standard Entity Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, NEW WISDOM BOOK, Universal Standard Entity Classification System, USECS; EIS; EU, Russia, 2015; ISBN 978-9963-8421-8-6Classification System, USECS; EIS; EU, Russia, 2015; ISBN 978-9963-8421-8-6

• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Neapolis Smart Eco City: A Development Framework for Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Neapolis Smart Eco City: A Development Framework for Sustainable Cities; EIS; EU, Russia, 2010; ISBN 978-9963-9958-0-6Sustainable Cities; EIS; EU, Russia, 2010; ISBN 978-9963-9958-0-6

• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Future Communities Guide: Smart Cities and New Urban Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Future Communities Guide: Smart Cities and New Urban Revolution; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-Revolution; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-6-72202-6-7

• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Project Russia 21_Wise Intelligent Superpower Power; EIS; Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Project Russia 21_Wise Intelligent Superpower Power; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN 978-5-600-01518-0 (in Russian)EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN 978-5-600-01518-0 (in Russian)

• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Wise Nations, Powers and Superpowers; EIS; EU, Russia, Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, Wise Nations, Powers and Superpowers; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-3-6 2016; ISBN set 978-9963-2202-1-2; ISBN 978-9963-2202-3-6

• Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, New World Revolution: Wise World vs. Ill World; EIS; EU, Azamat Sh. Abdoullaev, New World Revolution: Wise World vs. Ill World; EIS; EU, Russia, 2016Russia, 2016

• http://www.lulu.com/spotlight/shamash http://www.lulu.com/spotlight/shamash WAR & PEACE All Rights

Reserved Azamat Abdoullaev 2013-2016