War and Democracy - IGOs
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Transcript of War and Democracy - IGOs
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Inter-GovernmentalOrganisation
(IGO)
ANABELLE NG | ANG DE RONG | DAVID ARDIANSYAH | NGUYEN NHI ANH TRI | NICOLE KUEK
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ARTICLE 1
The Kantian Peace The Pacific Benefits of Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885-1992 John R. Oneal and Bruce Russett
ARTICLE 2
Do Intergovernmental Organisation Promote Peace? Charles Boehmer, Erik Gartzke and Timothy Nordstrom
ARTICLE 3
Democratic International Governmental Organizations Promote Peace Jon Pevehouse and Bruce Russet
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October
201331
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October
179531
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…Zum ewigen Frieden
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ARTICLE 1
The Kantian Peace The Pacific Benefits of Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885-1992 John R. Oneal and Bruce Russett
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…the world has been at peace for the past half-century.
What factor causes it?
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…Realistvs Liberal (Kantian)
at dyadic and systemic level.
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Numerous research….
…consensus on Democratic Peace theory
LESS… on economic interdependence and IGOs’
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Conceptual Synthesis of Realist and Liberalist Theories Extension of Temporal Domain on Trade and IGOs
Address Realist theory about Hegemons and Kantian Systemic Influences
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….to provide empirical support for the theory
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…Kantian Systemic Influences
Democracy…
Economic Interdependence…
Joint Membership in IGO
….decrease dispute
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Technique Unit of Analysis Temporal Range Spatial Doman
Cross sectional time series with
logistic regression
dyad year 1885-1992 all dyads globally
Dependent Variable Independent Variables Control Variables
MID Involvement
Democracy
Economic Interdependence
Joint IGOs membership
Capability Ratio
Alliance
Contiguity
Distance
Major Powers
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Joint membership only significant when….
Strong and statistically significant support for
Democracy and Economic Interdependence.
considering relative system measure and between
politically relevant dyads.
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ARTICLE 2
Do Intergovernmental Organisation Promote Peace?
Charles Boehmer, Erik Gartzke and Timothy Nordstrom
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IGOs…
…increase the probability of conflict, ?
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What are the effects of… on peace?
IGOs
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Impact of IGOs are debatable and its efficacy contradictory
IGOs seem to have a non-uniform effect on state behaviour
Lack of explanation as to how IGOs influence dispute behaviour
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Bargaining
Theory
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an increase in…
institutionalisation…
member cohesion…
security mandate
….decrease dispute
membership alone does not affect the probability of MIDs
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Technique Unit of Analysis Temporal Range Spatial Doman
Logistic
regression BTSCS
temporal range
non-directed
dyad year1950-1991 all dyads
Dependent Variable Independent Variables Control Variables
Involvement or
Onset
Joint IGO, IGO Mandate
Floor Member Contention
Major Power Contention
Difference in Floor-Major
Power Contention
Diplomatics Missions Low
Democracy Low
Interdependence Low
Allies
Major Power Dyad
Capability Ratio
Contiguity
Distance
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membership alone does not affect the probability of MIDs
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an increase in…
institutionalisation…
….not supported
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an increase in…
member cohesion…
security mandate
….decrease dispute
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with security mandate…
Only interventionist (highly institutionalised) IGOs…
significantly reduce interstate conflict.
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ARTICLE 3
Democratic International Governmental Organizations Promote Peace
Jon Pevehouse and Bruce Russet
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link between…
IGO and peace is not robust
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Type of IGO…
that promotes peace
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socialisation
Credible commitment
dispute settlement
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a revised interpretation that emphasises the benefits of particular
types of IGOs so as to address conflicting prior research
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…increased in membership of
democratic IGO promote peace
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Technique Unit of Analysis Temporal Range Spatial Doman
Logistic
regression dyad year 1885-2000 all dyads
Dependent Variable Independent Variables Control Variables
Fatal MID Democratic IGO
Democracy
Economic Interdependence
Contiguity
Distance
Major Power
Cumulative MIDS
Joint IGO
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π
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the more joint memberships in IGOs composed of democracies,
will engage in fatal MIDs.
the less likely it is that states in a dyad
(both democratic and non democratic)
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Link…
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Research Design
Article 1 Article 2 Article 3
CAPRATIO, DEML, DEPENDL, ALLIES, MAJOR PWRS,
CONTIGUITY, DISTANCE exclude ALLIES, MAJOR PWRS and CAPRATIO
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META questions?
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Heuristics
Empirical support
Predictions and Extrapolation
Falsifiability
Relative correlation
‘+’
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threat to Internal validity
anomalies
reverse causality
Isolation of factorsTweaking
Qualitative vs quantitative
‘-’
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“It’s democratic IGOs, stupid!”- U.S. President
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…danke