Walk the talk - AustinTexas.gov · Walk the talk: Matching different types of households to...
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Walk the talk: Matching different types of households to different types of homes
Elizabeth J. Mueller, Ph.D. UT Aus7n | Community and regional planning
May 16, 2015
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Overview
• How do demographics shape housing needs? • What kind of households will need housing in our region moving forward?
• What type of housing would match these groups needs (owners v renters, size, loca7on/ameni7es)
• How do different groups view housing/neighborhood types?
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How demographics shape housing needs
• Age, race/ethnicity profile of a region’s households shape: • The number of households in the region • The share of renters vs owners • Whether owners want/need smaller/lower priced homes
• A younger age profile means, more new households are forming, more homes needed
• More young households and more minority households means rents/homes must be priced for lower incomes
• More older households means smaller homes, a return to ren7ng for some
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National demographic trends and homeownership • Millenials (born 1981-‐1995) are key to next two decades in U.S. housing markets
• Comparable in size to baby boom cohort. • Struggling economically, forming households later than previous genera7ons. • Economy, job market and housing op7ons cri7cal to their stability.
• Con7nued racial/ethnic income dispari7es shape homeownership. • Gaps between white and black/Hispanic ownership rates have widened. • Seniors are mostly whites. Young aspiring owners mostly minori7es.
• Homes currently occupied by seniors are too big for them, but too expensive for many in the next wave of homeowners.
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National mismatch between types of homes this population needs, what we have
conven&onal
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In Texas: Changes in demographics of owners, 2010-30
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Source: U.S. Census 2000-‐2010, Urban Ins7tute Projec7ons.
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2030: Younger cohorts evenly split between white and Hispanic owners
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0
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White Black Hispanic Other race
Househ
olds by age of hou
seho
lder
Millions
65+
35-‐64
<35
Source: U.S. Census 2000-‐2010, Urban Ins7tute Projec7ons.
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OUR REGION:
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Austin vs the Region: losing mid-career, families
GROUP
SHARE OF CITY HOUSEHOLDS
2010
SHARE OF MSA POP 2010
SHARE OF PROJECTED GROWTH
CITY RELATIVE TO REGION
HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN 28.5% 31.6% 29%
Under-‐represented
ELDERLY HOUSEHOLDS 10.4% 12.3% 32%
Under-‐represented
SINGLE PERSON HOUSEHOLDS 33.9% 28.2% 31%
Over-‐represented
HOUSEHOLD HEADS UNDER 35 39.0% 28.7% 24%
Very over-‐represented
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Young population concentrated in central core neighborhoods
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Ten years later, they’re living in the suburbs…
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Note: Based on permits issued for residential units. In 2007, Mixed use and secondary apt categories were added & ‘other res’ and mobile home categories were dropped. Until 1996, the MF category included tri/fourplexes.
Secondary apts Other resid. Mobile homes Mixed use Mul7family Tri/fourplex Duplex Single family
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
Aus7n Residen7al Growth over 50 Years—Unit type
The choices are: Single family and Large MF buildings Young households cannot afford typical SF homes But there are few other op&ons in the city for first &me buyers
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Few locations allow moderate income owners to spend < 45% of income for Housing + T
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But maybe people want to live suburbia?
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Generational divide in Texas in housing preferences
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Central Texans: Evidence suggests interest but also cost concerns
• A majority of households with children would move closer to their central Aus7n workplace if they could
• Open ended responses express frustra7on with choices
Group Would you move closer to work if you could?
All 48%
18-‐34 65%
35-‐64 44%
55-‐69 31%
Very low income (<$40k) 70%
Low income (<$60k) 56%
Mid or high income 43%
Single person HH 53%
HH w/ children 51%
No children in HH 48%
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More likely to move if…
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Take aways • Regional demographics show rise in groups that will have more trouble buying homes, will value central loca7ons but also price
• Preference for access but also for SF homes…
• Aging popula7on also needs smaller homes, MF op7ons in central loca7ons.
• Need for high quality public spaces to support family households and to improve neighborhood condi7ons
• Can we provide more housing for a wider array of households in central neighborhoods?
• Can transit access and rental income help new owners make ends meet?