w Legislation Policy STATE Plan EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT … · Western Australian Emergency Risk...

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Legislation

Guidelines

PROCEDURE

Plan

Glossary

Policy

Government of Western AustraliaState Emergency Management Committee

ATTACHMENT TO STATE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PREVENTION AND

MITIGATION PROCEDURE 1WESTERN AUSTRALIAN EMERGENCY RISK MANAGEMENT

Responsible Agency:

State Emergency Management Committee Business Unit

APPROVED BY SEMC

Resolution Number: 90/2018

Version number: v02.00

Date of Approval: 7 December 2018

Date document came into effect: 21 December 2018

Review Date: May 2021

Once printed, this is an uncontrolled version of the document. The current version is available on the State Emergency Management Committee website: www.semc.wa.gov.au

STATE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENTA Strategic Framework for Emergency Management in Western Australia.

http://www.semc.wa.gov.au/

ii

PROCEDUREState Emergency Management: August 2017

Western Australian Emergency Risk Management

Version No.02.00

Contact Officer

To provide comment on this manual, please contact: State Emergency Management Committee Business Unit – [email protected]

Amendment Table

AMENDMENT DETAILS AMENDED BY: (INITIALS)

NO. DATE

2015Initial issue (as the Western Australian risk management guideline)

SEMC

1.2August

2017

As per SEMC Resolution 29/2017, reissued as Attachment to State Emergency Management Prevention and Mitigation Procedure 1: Western Australian emergency risk management, with statement of fact amendments.

Office of Emergency Management

2 December 2017

Amendments approved by SEMC (Resolution Number 58/2017) as per amendments table v01.03


3 May 2018Amendments approved by SEMC (Resolution Number 22/2018) as per amendments table v01.04


7December 2018

Amendments approved by SEMC (Resolution Number 90/2018) as per amendments table v02.00

SEMC Business Unit

A copy of this document is available on the State Emergency Management Committee website www.semc.wa.gov.au/

Aknowledgements

This document contains Standards Australia Ltd and ISO copyrighted material that is distributed by SAI Global on Standards Australia Ltd and ISO’s behalf. It may be reproduced in accordance with the terms of SAI Global Ltd’s Licence 1411-c083 to the Commonwealth of Australia (“the Licensee”). All licensed copies of this document must be obtained from the Licensee. Standards Australia Ltd and ISO’s material is not for resale, reproduction or distribution in whole or in part without written permission from SAI Global Ltd: tel + 61 2 8206 6355 or [email protected].

mailto:semc.policyleglisation%40dfes.wa.gov.au%20?subject=State%20EM%20Policy%20feedback

https://semc.wa.gov.au/resources/legislation-and-policy-framework/policy-amendments



1Western Australian Emergency Risk Management

PROCEDUREState Emergency Management: August 2017 Version No.02.00

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. introduction ......................................................................................................................................3

Emergency risk management..................................................................................................... 5

Risk management principles ....................................................................................................... 5

Risk management framework .................................................................................................... 6

Risk management process .......................................................................................................... 7

Emergency Risk Management in practice ............................................................................. 8

2. Establish the context ............................................................................................................... 10

Identify important and vulnerable elements in the community .................................. 11

Project plan ...................................................................................................................................... 12

3. Risk identification part 1: hazards and scenarios ......................................................14

Hazard identification ..................................................................................................................... 15

Scenario development ................................................................................................................. 17

Determining the scenario probability ..................................................................................... 18

4. Risk identification part 2: risk statements ................................................................... 20

Risk Statement Tree .....................................................................................................................21

Risk statement structure ............................................................................................................21

Frequently Asked Questions .....................................................................................................23

5. Risk analysis part 1 .................................................................................................................... 25

Assign a consequence level ......................................................................................................26

Assign a likelihood level ..............................................................................................................29

Assign a confidence level ..........................................................................................................31

Risk level ...........................................................................................................................................31

Priority level .....................................................................................................................................32

Practical aspects of a risk assessment workshop ............................................................32

6. Risk evaluation ............................................................................................................................. 34

Addressing priority risks .............................................................................................................35

Further analysis ..............................................................................................................................36

Update risk register ......................................................................................................................37

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7. Risk treatment .............................................................................................................................. 38

Who should treat the risk? .........................................................................................................39

Identify treatment options .........................................................................................................39

8. Monitoring and review ............................................................................................................ 42

The scope .........................................................................................................................................43

The risks ............................................................................................................................................44

The risk treatment strategies ....................................................................................................45

Record all results and modifications ......................................................................................45

9. Definitions ...................................................................................................................................... 46

10. References .................................................................................................................................... 48

Appendices .......................................................................................................................................... 50

Appendix A: Prescribed hazards .............................................................................................. 51

Appendix B: Toolbox ....................................................................................................................52

Appendix C: Risk priority ............................................................................................................54

Appendix D: Risk assessment workshop recommendations ......................................57

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction

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The State Risk Project, undertaken by the Risk, Capability and Analysis Portfolio of DFES on behalf of the State Emergency Management Committee, is an initiative of the State Government of Western Australia and is joint funded under the Commonwealth Government’s National Partnership Agreement on Natural Disaster Resilience.

Western Australia (WA) stretches nearly 2,500 km from north to south, a distance spanning 23 degrees of latitude. This spread encompasses several climatic zones from tropical in the far north, moving through grassland, desert, subtropical and on to temperate regions in the south west. On a global scale, such broad climatic variation and diversity for a State is rare.

With WA covering nearly one-third of the Australian continent, the size, remoteness and diversity presents a broad range of challenges for emergency management.

In addition to the infrequent threat from earthquakes and tsunamis, destructive storms, floods, cyclones and bushfires are significant seasonal hazards faced by the State each year to varying degrees.

WA is also exposed to a range of man-made hazards such as chemical and oil spills (on-shore and off-shore), major rail, road and air crashes, and energy supply disruptions. The State’s ongoing population expansion and its developing natural resource-based economy, further increase exposure to these risks.

In recent years WA has experienced a range of emergencies that have resulted in loss of life and damage to private and public property. Several of these emergency events including flood, fire, cyclone, storm, human epidemic and marine transport emergency have required a State-level response. There have also been many regional and local emergencies.

These events have caused significant social and economic costs. The State aims to reduce these costs by employing Emergency Risk Management (ERM). This process seeks to identify, analyse, evaluate and treat sources of risk prior to, during and after an emergency event.

This manual offers assistance to those seeking to undertake the risk management process and development of ERM plans. It aligns with the 2015 National Emergency Risk Assessment Guidelines (NERAG) but has been adapted to the Western Australian context.

As stated in State Emergency Management Policy (State EM Policy) Statement 3.2.6, ERM planning must be undertaken in accordance with State EM Prevention and Mitigation Procedure 1 and its attachment, the Western Australian Risk Management Manual (i.e. this document).

iNTRODUCTiON



EMERGENCY RiSK MANAGEMENTEmergency Risk Management (ERM) is defined as ‘a systematic process which contributes to the wellbeing of communities and the environment. The process considers the likely effects of hazardous events and the controls by which they can be minimised.’1 ERM is composed of three distinct elements (Figure 1), the risk management principles, framework and process, as outlined in the 2015 National Emergency Risk Assessment Guidelines (NERAG).

RiSK MANAGEMENT PRiNCiPLESRisk management principles underpin the mindset needed by organisations to conduct effective ERM and outlines the manner in which to undertake the process. In order to be effective, ERM should follow 11 key principles (Figure 2).

Create and protect value

Workshop

Establish the context

Risk identification

Risk analysis

Risk evaluation

Risk treatment

Com

mun

icati

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nd c

onsu

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Monitor and review

Based on the best available information

Transparent and inclusive

Facilitates continual improvement

Dynamic, continuous, and responsive to change

Take human and cultural factors into account

Tailored

Systematic, structured and timely

Explicitly address uncertainty

Part of decision making

Integral part of organisational processes


Risk management process

Mandate & Commitment

Design of framework for managing risk

Conti

nual

mon

itorin

g &

re

view

Implementing risk management

Risk management frameworkRisk management principles

Figure 1: Principles, framework and process for emergency risk management, as described by AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009.2 Adapted from National Emergency Risk Assessment Guidelines (2015).

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1 Source: State Emergency Management Glossary2 Adapted from AS/NZS ISO 31000 – Reproduced under SAI Global copyright Licence 1411-c083.

https://www.semc.wa.gov.au/resources/legislation-and-policy-framework/glossary

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Figure 2: Eleven principles of the ERM process 3

RiSK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORKThe risk management framework (Figure 1) is the overarching governance arrangement that ensures risk information is reported and used in decision making. For this to be effective, all parties must be committed to its success from the beginning, through established communication pathways and commitment by leadership.

The main components of the framework include:

• mandate and commitment: demonstrated support for the process by leadership (e.g. executives, managers). This is essential for the process to be successful;

• framework design: established structures that will keep the process on track. Things to consider include:

- responsibility for integrating risk management into the organisation;

- internal and external communication and reporting lines; and

- accountability measures;

• implementation: implementation of the framework and the risk management process; and

ERM contributes to the development and implementation of strategies that improve a government’s, organisation’s or community’s capabilities.

ERM is a dynamic process. Hazards and emergencies will change with time. Ongoing reviews identify any change in risk.

Stakeholders and particularly decisions-makers should be involved throughout the process. The justifications for any decisions should be made clear.

ERM takes into consideration the capabilities, perceptions and intentions of people involved.

ERM is adapted to fit the context of the situation.

ERM is based on current information from a broad range of sources and acknowledges gaps in information.

ERM needs to be systematic and structured in order to generate consistent, reliable and comparable results and to do so in a reasonable timeframe.

ERM acknowledges that uncertainty is a natural part of the process, as the future cannot be known.

ERM supports decision-making and informs prioritisation of risk reduction activities.

ERM is a normal part of an organisation’s, government’s or community’s operations.

Ensure the wellbeing and sustainability of human health, environment, economy, public administration and social setting of a community.

Based on the best available information

Transparent and inclusive

Facilitates continual improvement

Dynamic, continuous, and responsive to change

Take human and cultural factors into account

Tailored

Systematic, structured and timely

Explicitly address uncertainty

Part of decision making

Integral part of organisational processes


iNTRODUCTiON

3 Adapted from AS/NZS ISO 31000 – Reproduced under SAI Global copyright Licence 1411-c083.



• monitoring, review and improvement cycle: ensuring the framework (organisational structures and commitment) is efficient and improving over time.

It is unlikely that each of these components will be discrete as shown here. Existing organisational measures may aid the process; but the need for commitment by leadership as well as appropriate reporting structures cannot be underestimated. The ERM process may produce results, but it could be that the results are not taken up by decision makers because the appropriate reporting structures were not put in place first.

RiSK MANAGEMENT PROCESSThe risk management process is the actions which are undertaken to look at the actual risks facing a community. It involves five main phases (Figure 3).

1. Establish the context: this allows stakeholders to agree on the overall objectives and the scope within which they will operate. It defines the community environment and any potential issues that may affect the ERM process;

2. Risk identification: this identifies and describes the nature of the hazards, the vulnerabilities of the community and identifies the potential risks the community is facing;

3. Risk analysis: this examines the risk(s), considering their likelihood and consequence(s) and assigns levels of risk and priority;

4. Risk evaluation: this compares the risks with the set evaluation criteria and decides which risks require treatment; and

Workshop


Risk identification

Risk analysis

Risk evaluation

Risk treatment

Com

mun

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onitor and review

5. Risk treatment: this selects and implements appropriate treatments to deal with risks.

iNTRODUCTiON


Figure 3: ERM process.4

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Each phase is supported by two ongoing activities:

1. Communication and consultation: this aims to ensure two-way communication with internal and external stakeholders throughout the process; and

2. Monitoring and review: this allows for ongoing improvement of the process.

EMERGENCY RiSK MANAGEMENT iN PRACTiCEERM can be undertaken in a number of ways depending on what suits your organisation. In WA, experience has shown that a workshop environment, with relevant stakeholders in attendance, is the most effective format to undertake risk assessments. It gives stakeholders the opportunity to openly exchange knowledge and information and to build a comprehensive understanding of the risks posed to a community.

Exchange of information is essential for the assessment as many things are linked to each other. For example, health professionals may require information about road access to assess the risks to the health of the residents in the area. This information about road access may need to be provided by other stakeholders such as Main Roads WA or local government.

The ERM process is therefore explained below in terms of what needs to be done before, during and after the risk assessment workshop.

Before the workshopFour key steps need be undertaken before a risk assessment workshop. Each step is described in further detail throughout this manual. The four steps, and where you can find more information, are:

1. Create a project plan (Section 2);

2. Identify hazards for assessment (Section 3);

3. Develop the credible worst-case scenario, including AEP (Section 3); and

4. Write risk statements (Section 4).

Additional practical ‘Before the Workshop’ aspects are available in Section 5.

During the workshopDuring the workshop, participants will be introduced to the ERM process, the chosen hazard and the scenario that the assessment will be based on. Following this, they will collectively analyse (see Section 5) the risks posed by the scenario to different aspects, such as the economy or health of people. The end result of each workshop is a completed risk register for that particular hazard event.

Throughout the workshop it is important to encourage discussion to reach fair and valuable conclusions. To do so, it is essential that all participants have a shared understanding of what is expected from the beginning. As your participants will come from a variety of backgrounds and have experience in different fields,

iNTRODUCTiON



presenting information about the hazard and its potential impacts will help everyone to be on the same page.

It is often beneficial if these presentations are given by either the facilitator or a stakeholder such as a Hazard Management Agency (HMA) representative for the hazard being assessed as they are likely to contribute specialist knowledge. Appendix A contains a list of the HMAs for all 27 prescribed hazards.

Additional ‘During the Workshop’ guidance is available in Section 5.

After the workshopOnce the risk results are collected, three key steps should be completed. Each step is described in further detail throughout this manual. The three steps, and where you can find more information, are:

1. Risk evaluation (Section 6);

2. Risk treatment (Section 7); and

3. Monitoring and review (Section 8).

ToolboxA series of tools are available to assist with the process and can be found on the State Emergency Management Committee (SEMC) website (https://www.semc.wa.gov.au/thehub/risk-tools). The online Toolbox includes materials, presentations, templates, hazard videos, the Western Australian Risk Register Tool, criteria tables and more to help throughout the ERM process.

Where an item in the Toolbox is available to assist, you will see this symbol:

For a full list of tools and materials, and what they can be used for, please see Appendix B.

Document OutputsOn completion of a risk assessment, a risk register compliant with this manual should be produced. This can be completed using the WA Risk Register Tool available for download in the online Toolbox.

iNTRODUCTiON

https://www.semc.wa.gov.au/thehub/risk-tools




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2. Establish the context



Establishing the context is the first phase of the ERM process (Figure 4) and is fundamental to allow stakeholders to agree on a common understanding of objectives and the scope within which they will operate. This includes identifying important and vulnerable elements that may influence the risk assessment and creating a project plan, which is explained below.

ESTABLiSH THE CONTEXT

Workshop

ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT

Risk identification

Risk analysis

Risk evaluation

Risk treatment

Com

mun

icati

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nd c

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ltatio

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Monitor and review

Figure 4: ERM Process5

iDENTiFY iMPORTANT AND VULNERABLE ELEMENTS iN THE COMMUNiTYTo help set the context, it is essential to identify elements that could be vulnerable to impacts by hazards. These elements can be divided into five key areas: people, economy, public administration, social setting and environment. These same areas are also the focus of the risk assessment process and are included in the WA State Core Objectives. Figure 5 includes some elements/aspects that you may want to consider when establishing the context.

You should also consider other aspects that may fall outside of these areas such as single points of failure or reliance on infrastructure and services outside of your control etc.

• Flora• Fauna• Conservation areas• Bodies of water• Areas highly valued by the

community

• Schools/educational facilities• Hospitals and health centres• Aged care facilities• Community centres• Heritage buildings

• Emergency services• Government services• Non-government services• Utility providers• Service providers

• Important industries• Local businesses• Transport networks• Utilities infrastructure• Shopping centres• Tourism

• Population (including seasonal populations)

• Location of people• Demographics• Vulnerable people (elderly, children,

those with disabilities)

People Economy Public Administration

Social Setting Environment

Figure 5: Elements to consider when establishing the context, described under the five key impact areas.


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PROJECT PLAN

A project plan is helpful to assist in structuring the project and ensuring everyone involved understands their roles and responsibilities.

The main features to be included in the project plan are as follows.

Project objectives and scopeThe most important objective should be to improve community safety and wellbeing. Another objective of the ERM process could be to fulfil the requirements in State EM Policy, Section 3.Prevention. An example objective could be ‘to conduct a risk assessment for [the area of interest], following this manual for [the chosen priority hazards] considering impacts to people, economy, public administration, environment and social setting’.

The scope of the project describes what will be included and excluded from the assessment. Using the example above, the scope would be limited to looking at: (1) the risks in the area of interest; (2) five hazards; and (3) how these hazards impact the five impact areas. You may also want to consider organisational parameters.

Working teamWork that needs to be carried out is outlined in the following sections and includes: developing the hazard scenario(s) and risk statements, conducting the risk analysis, analysing the results, and reporting. You will need to determine who will undertake this – whether one person does all the work or if multiple people contribute. For instance, it is recommended that two people run a risk assessment workshop i.e. one facilitator and one data entry person, who will enter the data into the WA Risk Register Tool (see Appendix D for more detail).

Timeframe and communication strategyDevelop a realistic timeframe to undertake all aspects of the ERM process and decide when the risk assessment workshops will take place. For example, workshops could be run in one block, once every month or once every quarter.

Communication is vital throughout the ERM process to ensure everyone involved is kept well informed and invited to contribute during each stage of the process. It can be extremely beneficial to leverage off existing communication pathways within your own organisation.

Within the communication strategy determine how it will take place and how frequently it will occur. You could also consider how you will distribute and communicate the findings of the risk assessment once complete.





Identify key stakeholdersEstablish who your key stakeholders are and ensure they are involved and informed throughout the process. Key stakeholders can be those who:

(1) may be affected by the impacts of an emergency event;(2) may contribute specialist knowledge to the process; and(3) have jurisdictional authority for the specific hazards and/or elements at risk.Stakeholders that you may consider inviting to the risk assessment workshop, depending on services located within the scope of your assessment, could include:

• government departments e.g.: o Department of Communities; o Department of the Premier and Cabinet; o Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development; o Department of Education; o Department of Fire and Emergency Services; o Department of Health (WA Country Health Services); o Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions; o Local government; o Regional Development Commissions; o St John Ambulance WA; o State Emergency Services; and o Western Australia Police Force (WA Police Force).

• utility providers e.g.: o Communications (e.g. Telstra, Vodafone, Optus, etc); o Gas (e.g. ATCO, Alinta); o Main Roads WA; o Power (e.g. Western Power, Horizon Power); and o Water (e.g. Water Corporation).

• social service providers/community: o Aboriginal communities; o Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CaLD) communities; o remote communities; o representation for vulnerable persons (e.g. aged-care and disability services); o social service providers (e.g. Silver Chain, Meals on Wheels); and o volunteer organisations.

• other:

o airports; o corrective services institutions; o industry (e.g. mining, oil, gas, tourism etc.); and o universities or colleges.

The importance of involving executive / senior management in the project cannot be underestimated. They will be the ones who commit resources on behalf of the organisation in relation to what to treat and when, so it is vital they understand where the information is coming from.


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3. Risk identification part 1: hazards and scenarios



Risk occurs where a hazard (e.g. bushfire or cyclone) impacts vulnerable elements of the community, creating an emergency event. The aim of risk identification is to generate a comprehensive list of risks based on the sources of risk (hazard) and their potential consequences (Figure 6).

In the next two sections you will identify the risks relevant to your area by:

• describing in detail the hazards that could affect your area of assessment (hazard scenarios); and

• considering elements that could be impacted by those hazards (risk statements).

It is important to consider both existing and new risks that may present in the future.

RiSK iDENTiFiCATiON PART 1: HAZARDS AND SCENARiOS

Workshop


RISK IDENTIFICATION

Risk analysis

Risk evaluation

Risk treatment

Com

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nd c

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onitor and review

Figure 6: ERM Process6

HAZARD iDENTiFiCATiONIdentify all hazards that could impact elements within your area of interest using available sources of information. To assist in this, the list of 27 hazards prescribed in WA EM legislation can be found on the SEMC website and Appendix A. While there may be other hazardous events that could occur in your area of interest, it is recommended that the risk assessment process should be confined to the hazards listed in Figure 7.


http://www.semc.wa.gov.au

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Figure 7: The 27 hazards.

When choosing your hazards, consideration should be given to the overall risk of a hazard. This means the potential consequences of a hazard should be considered as well as its likelihood.

Risk = Consequence x Likelihood

To assist the identification of hazards for assessment, the SEMC website has a selection of videos and fact sheets which describe the potential impacts of each hazard. Remember it is important to select hazards which would require a significant, coordinated, multiagency response, beyond the normal day-to-day business of response agencies and impact a large proportion of the community of interest.

Other Substance (HAZMAT)

Chemical Substance

Flood

Collapse (cliff/landform and building)

Earthquake

Gas Supply Disruption

Biological Substance

Radiological Substance

Heatwave

Marine Oil Pollution

Radiation: Nuclear Powered Warships

Rail Crash

Road Crash

Space Re-entry Debris

Storm

Terrorism

Human Epidemic Tsunami

Marine Transport Emergency

Air Crash

Animal or Plant: Pests or Diseases

Cyclone

Electricity Supply Disruption

Fire (Bushfire and Structural)

Land Search

Liquid Fuel Supply Disruption

Marine Search




It is important to consider the full range of potential impacts from a hazard. The risk assessment process divides these impacts into five impact areas (Figure 8). Different hazards will impact each area to varying degrees. For example, a storm is likely to have a significant impact on the economy but may have little impact on the environment; while a HAZMAT incident may have a greater impact on the environment than the economy.

In addition, consider the amount of time required to undertake the risk assessment process. While it may be desirable to understand the risks posed by all hazards present in the area, it may be impractical to assess them all. For this reason, it is suggested that you consider priority hazards in your area which are likely to pose the maximum risk (consequence and likelihood).

People:Impacts on the physical

health of individuals

Public Administration:

Impacts of the emergency on the

governing body’s ability to govern

Social Setting:Impacts on the whole community, its daily

functioning and social aspects such as culture

and community resilience

Economy:Impacts to the economy, the

governing bodies and industry sectors

Environment:Impacts on the

ecosystem of the area, including flora and fauna

Figure 8: Five impact areas outlined in NERAG 2015.

SCENARiO DEVELOPMENTIn WA, experience has shown that using hazard scenarios is most effective. Now that you have chosen the hazards you will assess, you will need to develop scenarios for each hazard. Hazard scenarios are used in the risk assessment process to ensure all workshop participants have a common understanding of the potential impacts. As there are a multitude of events that could occur, a scenario is very useful to keep the discussion and participants focused, and on the same page. A credible worst-case scenario should be used to keep your assessments consistent and, more importantly, because any planning and risk reduction activities undertaken for the largest event will more than likely address issues that arise from smaller, more frequent events.


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The key aspects of a scenario are:

• an event large enough to require a multi-agency response;

• a timeline of events;

• specified time of day and year (which may affect those exposed and resource availability);

• location of event;

• a credible Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) (see below; and

• anticipated high level impacts.

In addition to these key aspects, there are a few helpful things to have in mind when developing the scenario. A good starting point is to consider historical events that have occurred in the area or State and adapt it to your area of interest.

Another useful tip is to use the consequence table (Table 1, Section 5) tailored to the population and gross area product of your area of interest and aim to produce an event that may have catastrophic impacts across a few (or all) of the five impact areas.

A consequence table that can be tailored to your area of interest can be found in the online Toolbox.

To assist in the development of scenarios, a hazard scenario template is available in the online Toolbox. Whenever possible, scenarios should be developed in conjunction with experts and stakeholders who have an understanding of the hazard(s). Individuals representing the HMA, critical infrastructure providers, health services and local government can be helpful.

Examples of scenarios created for the State Risk Project district risk assessments are also available in the online Toolbox. These can be used for reference to assist you in scenario development. An additional benefit of developing scenarios is that they can be used for future exercises and other activities.

A scenario presentation should be created to provide workshop participants with a timeline of events. You can include these slides in the main workshop presentation (template in the online Toolbox).

DETERMiNiNG THE SCENARiO PROBABiLiTYA key aspect of developing a scenario and assessing risk is determining the probability of the scenario occurring. For example, bushfires occur every year, but how often does one of this scale occur? Also, to properly compare the risks of different hazards, the probability of each event needs to be known. For instance, an earthquake may be very damaging but is unlikely to occur very often (0.005% chance per year); while a serious bushfire may occur more often (2% chance per year).







The probability is best described using the annual exceedance probability (AEP). The AEP is the probability of the scenario occurring in any given year. The AEP can be difficult to determine and is typically determined by comparison to other similar hazard occurrences, scientific research or by expert judgment based on scientific knowledge. It is written as a percentage, e.g. a 1% chance of occurrence in any given year.

You may be familiar with looking at the scenario probability as the Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) - the average period of time (in years) between the occurrence of events of the same size. The ARI can be converted to an AEP using the WA Risk Register Tool.

What is AEP?

AEP or the annual exceedance probability is the probability of the scenario occurring in any given year.

if looking at more than one scenario (e.g. flood and bushfire), you will need an AEP for each. Also remember to consider how often a scenario of that size happens (i.e. not just bushfires or floods in general).

The outputs from this section should be:

• a detailed description of the hazard scenario; and

• determination of the AEP for the scenario.



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4. Risk identification part 2: risk statements



Risk statements are single sentences that detail the relationship between the hazard scenario and its potential consequences. They should be written for each of the five impact areas (economy, people, public administration, social setting and environment) for each scenario.

These risk statements will be assessed in the workshops and should be written so that they are able to be assessed by the risk criteria in the consequence table (Table 1, Section 5). It would useful to familiarise yourself with the consequence table before writing the statements.

RiSK STATEMENT TREEA risk tree can be created to help identify different aspects that may be impacted by an emergency event and the impact area within which they sit. Figure 9 includes some examples. You may want to use the elements you identified in Section 2 to assist with this.

RiSK iDENTiFiCATiON PART 2: RiSK STATEMENTS

Environment• flora• fauna• bodies of water• endangered species• etc.

Economy• loss of local business• impact to important industry• damage to transport networks• damage to utilities infrastructure• damage to homes and contents• etc.

Social Setting• closure of schools• availability of essential supplies• damage to heritage buildings• impact to aged care facilities• access to shops• etc.

FLOOD

Public Administration• increased demand on emergency services• will require a recovery effort• impact on government services• impact on non-government services• impact on utilities service provision• etc.

People• death• injury• illness

Figure 9: Fictional example of a risk statement tree used to identify vulnerable aspects that may be impacted by an emergency event.

RiSK STATEMENT STRUCTUREYou will need to write a risk statement for each impact identified in your risk statement tree. Each risk statement should outline:

• the hazard;

• the hazard’s action (e.g. will disrupt, damage, impact etc.);

• an area of interest; and

• consequences which may result – ensure these can be assessed by the consequence table criteria. Figure 10 includes some recommended risk statement endings that can easily be answered by the criteria.

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The general structure for a risk statement, and examples of risk statements are illustrated below (Figure 10). In addition, a generic risk statement database is available in the online Toolbox which provides statements that can be adapted to your specific scenario and risk assessment.

Ensure the meaning of a risk statement is not ambiguous. More specific statements will also help when it comes to looking at potential treatments.

A template to put your risk statements in for your participants is available in the online Toolbox. These will need to be entered into the WA Risk Register Tool prior to your workshop.

Figure 10: General structure of a risk statement including fictional examples for clarity.

A

HAZARD

bushfire

flood

storm

outbreak of disease

etc.

ACTION

disrupt

impact

result in

affect

cause

etc.

AREA OF

INTEREST

• resulting in financial losses• incurring costs• resulting in repair costs

• impacting their service delivery• impacting their ability to maintain core

services

• impacting community wellbeing• resulting in a loss of cultural significance

• deaths• injuries/illness

Environment does not always follow the same structure as those above. Often, statements this category will end with the area of interest, e.g. a storm will impact the health of wildlife.

ECO

NO

MY

PUBL

IC

ADM

INSO

CIAL

SE

TTIN

GPE

OPL

EEN

VIRO

NM

ENT

A storm will cause damage to bridges and approaches to bridges, resulting in repair costs.

A bushfire will affect power infrastructure, impacting service delivery.

A flood will impact the availability of essential commercial products.

An outbreak of disease will result in death(s).

A marine oil pollution event will cause pollutants to enter marine environments impacting marine ecology.

Examples:

CONSEQUENCE/RECOMMENDED ENDING:

WILL





FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTiONS

How many risk statements should be assessed for each hazard?There should be as many statements as necessary to cover the possible consequences; however, it is recommended that at least 20 statements and no more than 50 statements per hazard scenario is best.

Does there need to be an equal number of risk statements for each impact area?Not necessarily, as long as you ensure that you have thought about potential consequences in all areas. It is likely that you will have more risk statements in some areas than others, depending on the hazard.

Where does mental health sit? The effects on mental health are often hard to capture. It is recommended that a serious mental health issue requiring medical intervention that is a direct result of the emergency event is considered as an injury/illness. It can be assessed within the people impact area using the descriptors provided and should be based on the level of medical treatment required. For broader community psychosocial impacts, a statement in the social setting impact area is recommended. It can be assessed under community wellbeing, as to whether the community has current resources support itself, or if external services (e.g. counselling from outside of your area of interest) are required.

Can statements be added during the workshop?Yes. If something comes up during the workshop that does not relate to a specific risk statement, a new risk statement can be added. This often happens, as those with the expertise at the workshop may identify things that you may not have thought about beforehand.

Can statements be split during the workshop?Yes. If a risk statement is not specific enough, or you find it covers more than can be assessed, you can split the risk statement up and create new ones during the workshop.

Why do statements say ‘will’ impact?The risk statement is written as if the scenario is taking place. You would assign a consequence as if the risk statement is happening (e.g. the school flooding will have a ‘major’ consequence). The likelihood is then used to assess whether it will flood or not in the scenario (e.g. the school being damaged by a flood will have a ‘major’ consequence, but the likelihood of the school being damaged to this consequence level in this scenario is 40%).


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What do response and recovery risk statements cover?These statements cover any activity that requires response or recovery and are as a direct result of the scenario. There is no timeline on this; all activities undertaken – whether they take one month or two years – should be included. These activities typically do not include repair cost (e.g. roads) as these are covered under a ‘road’ risk statement; but rather programs or additional work hours that result from the event.

What does public administration include?Public administration can include any governing body, whether this is a government service, non government service, utility provider or health service etc. It refers to whoever would govern the activity/activities that you are describing.

Where does infrastructure fit in?Infrastructure can fit into the economy and public administration areas. If you are looking at the dollar value of losing or damaging the infrastructure, you would write a risk statement in economy. If you are looking at the impact to the services provided, you would write a risk statement in public administration.

For example, when looking at the impacts to power infrastructure you could write two separate risk statements:

Economy – A storm will impact power infrastructure, incurring costs; e.g. how much will it cost to repair and how much money may be lost as a result of this impact?

Public administration – A storm will impact power infrastructure, impacting the ability to maintain core services; e.g. if power infrastructure is impacted, how might this affect the power company’s ability to supply its services to the community?

What are essential supplies?Essential supplies cover physiological necessities, including water, basic food items (e.g. milk and bread), pharmaceutical medicines, toiletries and fuel.

What are basic commercial products?Basic commercial products include non-essential items that can be found in supermarkets and retail outlets.

The output from this section should be:

• a list of risk statements for each hazard being assessed.

Risk analysis is the ‘systematic process to understand the nature of and to deduce the level of risk’7 (Figure 11). The risk statements identified in Section 4 can now be analysed by determining their consequence and the likelihood of that consequence.




5. Risk analysis part 1

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The chosen consequence and likelihood levels are used to assign a risk level using the risk matrix (Table 6).

RiSK ANALYSiS PART 1

Workshop


Risk identification

RISK ANALYSIS

Risk evaluation

Risk treatment

Com

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Monitor and review

Figure 11: ERM Process.8

When assessing risk statements for a hazard scenario, there are five steps to be completed for each risk statement. These are:

1. assign a consequence level;

2. assign a likelihood level;

3. assign a confidence level;

4. risk level calculation; and

5. priority level calculation.

Steps 1 to 3 should be completed in a risk assessment workshop. Once these steps are completed, steps 4 and 5 are automatically completed for you by the WA Risk Register Tool. The five steps are detailed below, followed by a description of the practical aspects of a risk assessment workshop.

ASSiGN A CONSEQUENCE LEVELDetermine the consequence of each risk statement using the criteria in the consequence table (Table 1). This table shows how the impacts of an emergency event can be categorised from ‘insignificant’ to ‘catastrophic’ according to the five key impact areas. When assessing the consequence level it is assumed the scenario is occurring.

The consequence table uses scalable descriptions to ensure the level of risk is assessed appropriately. The values in the people and economy impact area descriptions are based on the population and gross area product of your area of interest. In some cases, where there are small populations, different consequence

7 Source: Australian Government Attorney-General’s Department, accessed under Creative Commons BY licence. 8 Adapted from AS/NZS ISO 31000 – Reproduced under SAI Global copyright Licence 1411-c083.



levels may have the same criteria. For example, for a population of 15,000, the scaled people criteria for the ‘minor’, ‘moderate’ and ‘major’ consequence levels would be the same, ‘at least 1 death’, because the calculated values are rounded up to the nearest whole number. In such cases, the highest consequence level should be applied, i.e. major in this example. There are additional notes about some of the terms used in the people (injury) and environment categories in Table 2 and Table 3.

A consequence table that can be adapted to your area of interest can be found in the online Toolbox.

When assigning a consequence level to a risk statement during a workshop, it is important that the maximum possible consequence is chosen. This is so any potential treatment strategies take into account the highest consequence. For example, while there could be a small chance of a major consequence for a risk statement and a higher chance of a moderate consequence, the higher consequence needs to be chosen. A helpful approach is to begin on the right hand side of the consequence table (catastrophic level) and work left (decreasing in consequence level) until you find the appropriate consequence.

Aspects to consider when assigning a consequence level are that:

• most impact areas on the consequence table have sub-categories/dot points. When assigning a consequence level only one of these sub-categories needs to be met for that level to be chosen.

• when deciding the consequence it is important to consider how the existing controls (e.g. fire breaks) may alter the impacts. This is typically done informally during discussions in the workshop.

• the consequence level descriptors are words used to rank the level of consequence and do not necessarily reflect how a community might describe such an event.



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Consequence table

Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic

People

Mortality Not Applicable At least 1 death in 10,000,000 people

At least 1 death in 1,000,000 people

At least 1 death in 100,000 people

At least 1 death in 10,000 people

Injuries/Illness

1 in 1,000,000 people seriously injured or any minor injuries

1 in 10,000,000 people critically injured with long-term or permanent incapacitation or 1 in 1,000,000 people seriously injured

1 in 1,000,000 people critically injured with long-term or permanent incapacitation or 1 in 100,000 people seriously injured

1 in 100,000 people critically injured with long-term or permanent incapacitation or 1 in 10,000 people seriously injured

1 in 10,000 people critically injured with long-term or permanent incapacitation or 1 in 1000 people seriously injured

Economy

Loss in economic activity and/or asset value

Decline of economic activity and/or loss of asset value less than 0.004% of gross area product

Decline of economic activity and/or loss of asset value greater than 0.004% of gross area product



Decline of economic activity and/or loss of asset value greater than 4% of gross area product

Impact on important industry

Inconsequential business sector disruption

Significant industry or business sector is impacted by the emergency event, resulting in short-term (i.e. less than one year) profit reductions

Significant industry or business sector is significantly impacted by the emergency event, resulting in medium-term (i.e. more than one year) profit reductions

Significant structural adjustment required by identified industry to respond and recover from emergency event

Failure of a significant industry or sector

Environment

Loss of species and/or landscapes

No damage to ecosystems at any level

• Minor damage to ecosystem/species of state significance

• Significant damage to ecosystem/species of district/local significance

• Minor damage to ecosystem/species of national significance

• Significant damage to ecosystem/species of state significance

• Severe damage to ecosystem/species of district/local significance

• Significant damage to ecosystem/species of national significance

• Severe damage to ecosystem/species of state significance

• Permanent destruction to ecosystem/species of district/local significance

Permanent destruction to ecosystem/species of national, state and district/local significance

Loss of community environmental value

Inconsequential damage to item of interest

Minor damage to item of interest

Significant damage to item of interest

Severe damage to item of interest

Permanent destruction to item of interest

Public Administration

Governance Functions

Governing bodies’ delivery of core functions is unaffected or within normal parameters

Governing bodies encounter limited reduction in delivery of core functions

• Governing bodies encounter significant reduction in the delivery of core functions

• Governing bodies are required to divert some available resources to deliver core functions or seek external assistance to deliver some of their core functions

• Governing bodies encounter severe reduction in the delivery of core functions

• Governing bodies are required to divert a significant amount of available resources to deliver core functions or seek external assistance to deliver the majority of their core functions

Governing bodies are unable to deliver their core functions

Social Setting

Community wellbeing

• Community social fabric is disrupted

• Existing resources sufficient to return the community to normal function

• No permanent dispersal

• Community social fabric is damaged

• Some external resources required to return the community to normal function

• No permanent dispersal

• Community social fabric is broken

• Significant external resources required to return the community to normal function

• Some permanent dispersal

• Community social fabric is significantly broken

• Extraordinary external resources are required to return the community to functioning effectively

• Significant permanent dispersal

• Community social fabric is irreparably broken

• Community ceases to function effectively, breaks down

• Community disperses in its entirety

Community services

Inconsequential / short term impacts

Isolated / temporary reductions Ongoing reductions Reduced quality of life Community unable to

support itself

Culturally important objects

Minor damage to objects of cultural significance

Damage to objects of identified cultural significance

Damage or localised widespread damage to objects of identified cultural significance

Widespread damage or localised permanent loss of objects of identified cultural significance

Widespread and permanent loss of objects of identified cultural significance

Culturally important activities

Minor delay to a culturally important community event

Delay to or reduced scope of a culturally important community event

Delay to a major culturally important community event

Temporary cancellation or significant delay to a major culturally important community event

Permanent cancellation of a major culturally important community activity


9 Adapted from National Emergency Risk Assessment Guidelines (NERAG) 2015.

Table 1: Consequence table9. See Table 2 and 3 for definitions of people and environment impact terms.



Injury and illness is the non-lethal damage or harm done to a person’s physical or mental capacity as a result of the emergency. The descriptors of injury and illness are based on the level of medical treatment required (Table 2).

Table 2: Injury and illness scale and definitions.10

Injury severity Description

Fatal Mortally injured, certain to lead to death regardless of available treatments. Counted among deaths, not injuries.

Critical Injuries that pose an immediate life-threatening condition if not treated adequately and quickly.

Serious Injuries requiring a great degree of medical care and use of medical technology such as X-rays or surgery, but not expected to progress to life-threatening status.

Minor Injuries requiring basic medical aid which would require bandages or observation.

Damage level Description

Permanent destruction The permanent loss of a species or ecosystem, or the potential for ongoing impacts leading to permanent loss.

Severe damageThe ecosystem or species requires a major program of interventions and recovery to restore it to health. The asset or species has been or is likely to be permanently altered from its original state by the emergency event.

Significant damage The ecosystem or species requires a diversion of resources to manage their recovery.

Minor damage The ecosystem or species is able to recover fully, with minimal or no intervention.

Environmental impacts are measured in terms of the scale of damage and/or intervention required for recovery (Table 3).

Table 3: Environmental damage descriptors.10

ASSiGN A LiKELiHOOD LEVELThe likelihood has been separated into two parts to assist workshop participants. They do not need to know how often such a storm occurs, but rather the chance of the impacts. For example, a large storm may occur, but what is the chance that the school will be damaged or the electricity network will be impacted?

The overall likelihood for each risk statement is the combination of the scenario AEP (from Section 3) and the likelihood of the consequence assigned within the workshop.

Overall likelihood level = probability of event (AEP) x likelihood of consequence (%)



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For example, if the risk statement has been assessed to have major consequences, you will need to assign the likelihood of a major consequence, using a percentage.

Given the assumption that the scenario is happening, the likelihood level assigned here (in the workshop) is for the assigned consequence level of the risk statement.

When deciding the likelihood as a percentage, choose along the scale from 0-100% (Figure 12) the percentage that best represents the likelihood of that consequence occurring (given the event is happening). For example:

100% would imply that consequence is definitely going to happen. 50% would imply that consequence may or may not happen.5% would imply that consequence could happen but the likelihood of it happening is very low.

Following the group discussion in the workshop, any percentage can be assigned along the scale (e.g. 76%) for the chosen consequence.

Figure 12: Determining likelihood of a risk statement occurring with a specific consequence level.

If the AEP for the scenario is entered in to the WA Risk Register Tool, the overall likelihood calculation is done automatically when you enter the likelihood of the consequence as a percentage. The tool also auto calculates the appropriate NERAG likelihood term (Table 4) for use in the risk matrix (Table 6).

Table 4: Likelihood as described in the NERAG 2015.

NERAG likelihood term Overall likelihood level

Almost certain 63% per year or more

Likely 10 - <63% per year

Unlikely 1 - <10% per year

Rare 0.1 - <1% per year

Very rare 0.01 - <0.1% per year

Extremely rare <0.01% per year


100%

e.g. 76% likelihood

Not going to happen Will happen

50/50 chance of happening

> 0% 50%



Confidence table

Lowest Low Moderate High Highest

Supporting evidence

• No historical events

• No scientific model

• Anecdotal information of historical events

• Scientific model which could be applied with significant modification

• Historical event of similar magnitude in a comparable community of interest

• Relevant scientific model available

• Recent historical event of similar magnitude in a directly comparable community of interest

• Good scientific model available

• Recent historical event of similar magnitude to that being assessed in the community of interest

• Highest quality scientific model

Expertise No expertise is available

Expertise is available

Relevant expertise is used to make decision

Relevant expertise is highly influential in the decision

Relevant and demonstrated expertise available and highly influential in making the decision

Participant agreement

Fundamental disagreement of assessment

Disagreement of major aspects of assessment

Disagreement of minor aspects of assessment

Agreement of assessment

Strong agreement of assessment



RiSK LEVELThe risk level is determined for each risk statement by combining the consequence level and the overall likelihood using Table 6. If you have entered the consequence, likelihood of the consequence (%) and the scenario probability (AEP) into the WA Risk Register Tool the risk level will be determined automatically.

ASSiGN A CONFiDENCE LEVELThe confidence level is used to identify the robustness of the assessment. The confidence level table (Table 5) provides descriptions for five confidence levels (‘lowest’ to ‘highest’) based on supporting evidence, expertise and participant agreement during the workshop.

When determining the confidence level, you should take the lowest level from one of the three categories. For instance, there could be strong agreement amongst participants (highest), but no relevant expertise available (low). So the confidence level would be ‘low’.

Table 5: Confidence table.11

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Table 6: Risk matrix.12

PRACTiCAL ASPECTS OF A RiSK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOPHow to apply the above information practically in a risk assessment workshop is described below. For further workshop recommendations, please see Appendix D.

Priority General descriptor: action pathway

1

Highest priority for further investigation and/or treatment, and the highest authority relevant to context of risk assessment must be formally informed of risks. Each risk must be examined, and any actions of further investigation and/or risk treatment are to be documented, reported to and approved by that highest authority.

2High priority for further investigation and/or treatment, and the highest authority relevant to context of risk assessment should be formally informed of risks. Further investigations and treatment plans should be developed.

3Medium priority for further investigation and/or treatment. Actions regarding investigation and risk treatment should be delegated to appropriate level of organisation, and further investigations and treatment plans may be developed.

4Low priority for further investigation and/or treatment. Actions regarding investigation and risk treatment should be delegated to appropriate level of organisation, and further investigations and treatment plans may be developed.

5 Broadly acceptable risk. No action required beyond monitoring of risk level and priority during monitoring and review phase.


12 Source: Australian Government Attorney-General’s Department, accessed under Creative Commons BY licence.

Consequence level

Likelihood Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic

Almost Certain Medium Medium High Extreme Extreme

Likely Low Medium High Extreme Extreme

Unlikely Low Low Medium High Extreme

Rare Very low Low Medium High High

Very Rare Very low Very low Low Medium High

Extremely rare Very low Very low Low Medium High

PRiORiTY LEVELA priority level is used to determine the order in which risks should be addressed for treatment. For ease of use, the WA Risk Register Tool automatically determines the priority level (Table 7) for each risk statement once the consequence, likelihood and confidence have been entered. See Appendix C for more information on the calculation of the priority level.

Table 7: Priority levels with suggested actions for each.12




Before the workshopPrior to a workshop, it is recommended to complete the following:

• Arrange the workshop logistics (e.g. venue, catering, timings etc.).• Populate your WA Risk Register Tool with the appropriate information including the hazard, the AEP of your scenario, the risk statements and the relevant impact areas. • Populate your risk statements into the template for all participants.• Download and tailor your workshop presentation (this can be found in the online Toolbox):

• you will need to enter your specific criteria, such as population and gross area product of your area of interest, into the correct slides in the presentation; and • insert your scenario presentation slides where instructed.

• Print workshop materials. This could include: consequence and confidence tables, risk statements for participants, the agenda and additional handouts (e.g. scenario maps, information etc.).Templates, tools and a checklist to assist with the above can be found in the online Toolbox.

During a workshop1. Present your information about the hazard, vulnerabilities and impacts and the scenario. Appendix D describes this in further detail. It is extremely important that everyone understands the scenario as the assessment should be based only on the content of the scenario. This ensures that everyone will be considering the same size event. 2. The facilitator should then present the risk assessment process portion of the workshop presentation which describes how the risk analysis will work. This should include how the consequence, likelihood and confidence levels are chosen. 3. Conduct the risk analysis. For each risk statement, facilitate the discussion to collectively assign consequence, likelihood and confidence levels. Ensure someone is entering this information into the WA Risk Register Tool.

Risk Analysis tips • Three minutes per risk statement is recommended; however, the facilitator may find that the first few risk statements can take longer while participants begin to understand the process. The speed of the assessment is likely to pick up over time. • When assessing the consequence level, make sure participants are selecting a level based on the criteria and not because they feel it should be a particular level. For example, if a risk statement is to be assessed as ‘moderate’, then it must meet at least one of the ‘moderate’ criteria.• When assessing the consequence level, make sure participants are selecting the maximum possible consequence and adjusting the likelihood as required. • If you are the facilitator, remember to remain impartial and rely on the expertise of your participants, but do ‘challenge’ them or ask for their reasoning if you think the assessment may be incorrect. Their final decision is what should be recorded.




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6. Risk evaluation



Risk evaluation is the process of determining whether a risk and/or its magnitude are acceptable or tolerable. The risk evaluation phase (Figure 13) helps to determine which risks may require further detailed assessment or treatment, and prioritises measures to reduce risk levels. It is likely that this phase will need to be undertaken with decision makers and technical experts.

Workshop


Risk identification

Risk analysis

RISK EVALUATION

Risk treatment

Com

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RiSK EVALUATiON


ADDRESSiNG PRiORiTY RiSKSThis step should be undertaken once all hazards have been assessed. This will allow treatment decisions to be made based on priority level, irrespective of the hazard. It also allows for the identification of risks which are common across multiple hazards. Addressing common risks will have a larger return on investment than risks resulting from a single hazard.

Consider the following questions when reviewing the risk statements:

• are there common risk themes across multiple hazards which could be addressed with a single treatment?;

• is the risk so urgent that it must be addressed and there is not time for further, more detailed assessment?; and

• can the confidence level be realistically increased through further research or investigation? (Increasing the confidence level may result in a lower priority level.)

Further analysis should be considered if:

• further analysis will increase the level of confidence; and

• a proposed treatment has the potential to cause adverse impacts, which could result in new risks or exacerbate existing risks.

The points above can be addressed for each risk statement by following the diagram in Figure 14.


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Figure 14: Risk evaluation classification.14

At the end of this stage, each evaluated risk is assigned one the following actions:

• treat: risk requires treatment (see Section 7);

• further analysis: risk requires further analysis (see below); and

• monitor: risk requires ongoing monitoring and maintenance of existing controls (see Section 8).

Decisions made during this step should be recorded in the risk register.

FURTHER ANALYSiSIf it is decided that further analysis is required this may involve:

• further investigation and research

• beginning a new risk assessment with a more focused context; and

• using semi-quantitative or quantitative methods (such as analysis of historical impacts or consequences of past emergency events).

Risk Analysis

Question 1:

Does the risk need to be treated urgently?

Question 2:

Can the confidence

level reasonably be

improved?

Further analysis not required

Based on risk priority, determine whether to treat or monitor the risk

Further analysis

Yes

No YesQuestion 3:

If confidence were improved, would it affect

priority?

YesQuestion 4:

If confidence were improved, would a different decision

be made regarding treatment and management?

Yes

Question 1.1:

Will the treatment alter the behaviour of the hazard and could

this have adverse consequences outside the

treated area?

NoNoNo

Risk evaluation

Priority 1 - 4 Priority 5

Treat risk Monitor risk

No

Yes

RiSK EVALUATiON




The use of semi-quantitative and quantitative methods may be particularly useful if potential treatments are either expensive or will have a widespread impact on the community.

UPDATE RiSK REGiSTERRisk statements that require further analysis should have their consequence, likelihood and confidence levels reassessed based on the updated information. Any change in these levels should be noted in the risk register along with detailed reasons for the change. At this point, these risk statements should be assigned either the treat or monitor actions within the risk register.

RiSK EVALUATiON

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7. Risk treatment



The risk treatment phase (Figure 15) aims ‘to determine and implement the most appropriate action(s) in response to the identified need to treat risks’15. A risk treatment can either remove the cause of the risk or implement/improve controls to reduce the level of risk.

RiSK TREATMENT

Workshop


Risk identification

Risk analysis

Risk evaluation

RISK TREATMENT

Com

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WHO SHOULD TREAT THE RiSK?Depending on the type of risk identified it is likely it will fall into one of the following categories:

• those which are the responsibility of your organisation and are within its capacity to treat;• those which are the responsibility of your organisation but are beyond its current capacity to treat; and• those which are the responsibility of external organisations.

Where the risk can be addressed by your organisation, treatment options should be considered. The steps for identifying and evaluating treatment options are set out in the following sections.

Where the responsibility for a risk belongs to another organisation or is beyond the capacity of your organisation to manage, the risk should be discussed with the appropriate personnel/organisations.

iDENTiFY TREATMENT OPTiONSThe identification of treatment options may be undertaken in a variety of ways and may be dependent on the type of risk and the organisations involved in its management. Treatment options can reduce the risk by preventing, preparing or responding to the risk. A treatment may also involve taking steps to aid recovery.

The following diagram (Figure 16) provides some suggestions of the types of treatments available under each approach. Note this list is not exhaustive.

15 Source: Australian Government Attorney-General’s Department, accessed under Creative Commons BY licence. 16 Adapted from AS/NZS ISO 31000 – Reproduced under SAI Global copyright Licence 1411-c083.

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Figure 16: Potential treatment approaches under the PPRR spectrum.

Before deciding to undertake a treatment option, it is important to understand fully the benefits, costs and any potential adverse impacts from the treatment. This can be done by considering each treatment option against the following factors:

• cost – is this option affordable? Is this the most cost-effective? Is it capital and/or recurrent?;

• timing – will the benefits be quickly realised?;

• leverage – will this option lead to further risk-reducing actions by others?;

• administrative efficiency – can it be easily administered? Or will its application be neglected due to difficulty or lack of expertise?;

• continuity – will the effects be continuous or short-term? If continuous, will it be sustainable over time?;

• compatibility – how compatible is this option with others that may be adopted?;

• effects on society – what will be the economic, social, people, public administration and environmental impacts?;

• risk creation – will this option introduce new risks?;

• equity – who pays for the risk reduction? When the risk is not a result of people’s decision, is the cost fairly distributed?;

• risk reduction potential – what proportion of the losses due to this risk will it prevent?; and

• public reaction – are there likely to be adverse reactions to its implementation?

A treatment plan should be developed for each treatment options considering the components of Figure 17. Treatment(s) plans should be formulated following your standard organisational processes. This information should be entered into the WA Risk Register Tool detailing any further actions to be taken.

Government agencies undertaking risk analysis must be mindful of any state or national requirements which may impact treatment options such as regulation.

Treatment Ideas

• Prescribed burning

• Land-use planning

• Education

Prevention

• Warnings

• Exercising & training

• Community action

Preparedness

• Firefighting

• Community safety

• Rescue

Response

• Restoration activities across social, economic and built environments

Recovery

RiSK TREATMENT



Figure 17: Components required for a treatment plan.

Treatment Plan

Document the required frequency of

reviewDescribe in detail the

treatment action

Describe why the selected treatment

option was considered

Define the responsibilities of all individuals and organisations involved in

treatment

Anticipated benefits from treatment actions

List all resources required for the effective implementation of the

treatment option

Detail how performance will be

measured

Provide a detailed timeline for

implementation, including all deadlines

Benefits

Review

Resources

Performance

TimeframeActions

Justification

Responsibilities

RiSK TREATMENT

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8. Monitoring and review



MONiTORiNG AND REViEW

Continuous monitoring and review of the risk(s) is an essential component in the ERM process which feeds into each step along the way (Figure 18). It allows for any changes in circumstances to be updated, new risks to be identified and the effectiveness of controls and treatments to be evaluated.


Monitoring should be ongoing with regular updates provided to appropriate personnel within your organisation. This ongoing monitoring should capture any changes in circumstance and tracks how treatment strategies (once identified), are progressing. A full review of your risks should be conducted if there are significant changes in the circumstances within the area of interest and/or hazards. Otherwise, it is recommended that risks are assessed every five years.

Three areas that should be monitored and reviewed are the scope, the risk and risk treatment strategies, as detailed below.

THE SCOPEIdentify any changes in circumstance that may alter any part of the project scope (Section 2). Consider changes to any aspect of the five impact areas (economy, people, public administration, social setting, and environment), regardless of how small these may be. Priorities and perceptions of risk can change over time.

Some examples of changes you may wish to consider are shown in Table 8. Please note this is not an exhaustive list.

Workshop


Risk identification

Risk analysis

Risk evaluation

Risk treatment

Com

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MO

NITO

R AND REVIEW


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Table 8: Examples of factors in each impact area that may change over time.

THE RiSKSIt is necessary to re-evaluate changes in the hazard(s) and their associated risk(s) and ensure that the most up-to-date information is used. You should consider changes in:

• the frequency of the hazard;

• the scale of the hazard;

• the likelihood of the hazard;

• the exposure to the hazard;

• the vulnerability of infrastructure and the population to the hazard; and

• climate change.

It is especially important to review hazards and risks after an emergency event has occurred as information from these events can improve your understanding of risks and lead to better treatment strategies.

Impact area Factors that may change

Economy

• Local economy• Predominant industry• Tourism• Commercial/residential development• Infrastructure development• Changes to transport networks

People• Population• Movement of population• Demographics

Public administration• Capability of the governing bodies• Location of government services/offices

Social setting

• Resilience of the community• Community health services (e.g. GP)• Facilities for vulnerable people• Community services

Environment

• Conservation areas• Ecologically sensitive areas• Environmental value assigned• National parks




THE RiSK TREATMENT STRATEGiESIt is essential to continuously monitor and review the current agreed risk treatment strategies and their effectiveness. In addition, it is important to ensure that identified controls are operating efficiently and identify any changes that may have occurred or are anticipated to.

Any identified changes in circumstance may impact risk treatment decisions. Therefore, if risk identification, analysis and/or evaluation are re-visited, risk treatments may also need to be modified.

RECORD ALL RESULTS AND MODiFiCATiONSAll changes in circumstance and/or any modifications should be documented in the WA Risk Register Tool. This ensures that all stakeholders are aware of any changes and these can be accounted for in future reviews.


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9. Definitions



DEFiNiTiONS

Table 9: Terms used throughout the suite of State emergency management documents have the meanings given in section 3 of the Emergency Management Act 2005 (EM Act), the State Emergency Management Glossary or the list of definitions in the State EM Policy or the State EM Plan, as applicable. Specific definitions relevant to this manual are listed below.

Term Definition

Annual exceedance probability (AEP)

The probability of an emergency event of a given size or larger occurring in a given year, expressed as a percentage.

AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 International standard for risk management which forms the basis of the ERM process.

Confidence The trustworthiness or reliability of the evidence that supports risk assessments.

ControlA measure that modifies risk. This may be an existing process, policy, device, practice or other action that acts to minimise negative risk or enhance positive opportunities.

Elements at risk Components of the five impacts areas which may be at risk from hazards.

Frequency A measure of likelihood expressed as the number of occurrences of an event in a given time.

Loss Any negative consequence or adverse effect, financial or otherwise.

Monitoring To check, supervise, observe critically or record the progress of an activity, action or system on a regular basis in order to identify change.

Organisation Group of people and facilities with an arrangement of responsibilities, authorities and relationships.

Residual risk Risk remaining after risk treatment. Following implementation of risk treatment, residual risk can also be referred to as retained risk.

Risk register

A document usually presented in a tabular form which lists concisely the following information for each risk: The risk statement, source, hazard, impact area, prevention/preparedness controls, recovery/ response controls, level of existing controls, likelihood level, risk level, confidence level, treatment strategy.

Risk source An element which, alone or in combination, has the intrinsic potential to give rise to risk.

Stakeholders A person, group of people or organisation that can affect, be affected by or perceive themselves to be affected by a decision or activity.

Susceptibility The potential to be affected by loss.

https://www.semc.wa.gov.au/Pages/Legislation.aspx



https://www.semc.wa.gov.au/resources/legislation-and-policy-framework/policy

https://www.semc.wa.gov.au/resources/legislation-and-policy-framework/plan

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10. References



1. State Emergency Management Policy (2016)

2. State Emergency Management Procedures

3. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) (2009). Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland. Available from: http://www.unisdr.org/files/7817_UNISDRTerminologyEnglish.pdf

4. Australian/New Zealand Standard (2009). AS/NZS ISO 31000 Risk management – Principles and guidelines. Reproduced under the SAI Global copyright Licence 1411-c083.

5. Australian Government Attorney-General’s Department (2015). National Emergency Risk Assessment Guidelines (NERAG) Handbook 10. Accessed under Creative Commons BY licence, licence conditions at www.creativecommons.org.au.

REFERENCES

https://www.semc.wa.gov.au/resources/legislation-and-policy-framework/procedure

https://www.semc.wa.gov.au/resources/legislation-and-policy-framework/policy

https://www.semc.wa.gov.au/resources/legislation-and-policy-framework/procedure

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Appendices



APPENDiX A: PRESCRiBED HAZARDS

Please refer to the SEMC website for the most up to date list of prescribed hazards and Hazard Management Agencies (HMA).

https://www.semc.wa.gov.au/emergency-management/state-em-framework/em-arrangements

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APPENDiX B: TOOLBOX

Below is a full list of all the tools and templates available on the SEMC website which you can use to assist you with your risk assessment process.

TOOLS

Name DescriptionMore information

WA Risk Register Tool

An Excel spreadsheet where you can input your data throughout the ERM process. This is your Risk Register and will do all mathematical calculations for you, including the assignment of risk levels.

Page 9

Tailored consequence table (includes confidence table)

After entering your population and gross area product for your area of interest, this Excel tool will generate a consequence table that is specifically tailored to your area of interest.

Page 28

Workshop presentation

This workshop PowerPoint presentation can be used by facilitators during the workshop to introduce and explain the risk assessment process and ensure all steps are covered. All red coloured text should be changed to match your own context.

Page 33

Generic risk statements database

This Excel spreadsheet contains generic risk statements for each impact area which you can tailor to suite your community.

Page 21

Workshop checklist A checklist for the materials required before and during the workshop.

TEMPLATES

Name DescriptionMore information

Project plan templateA template for a project plan which should be completed prior to commencing the ERM process.

Page 12

Hazard scenario template A template document which should be completed when developing a hazard scenario. Page 18

Risk statement tree

You can use this template to brainstorm different aspects that may be impacted by the emergency event for each impact area to help you with writing risk statements.

Page 21

Risk statement template for workshop participants

A template document where all risk statements can be written and then used by participants in the risk assessment workshops.

Page 33

https://www.semc.wa.gov.au/



REPORTiNG

Name Description

ERM consultant quarterly report

Template for the quarterly report required to be completed by consultants engaged in ERM for a local government.

Final report criteria. A checklist of criteria for the final report produced by consultants engaged in ERM, for local government use.

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Priority General descriptor: action pathway

1

Highest priority for further investigation and/or treatment, and the highest authority relevant to context of risk assessment must be formally informed of risks. Each risk must be examined, and any actions of further investigation and/or risk treatment are to be documented, reported to and approved by that highest authority.

2High priority for further investigation and/or treatment, and the highest authority relevant to context of risk assessment should be formally informed of risks. Further investigations and treatment plans should be developed.

3Medium priority for further investigation and/or treatment. Actions regarding investigation and risk treatment should be delegated to appropriate level of organisation, and further investigations and treatment plans may be developed.

4Low priority for further investigation and/or treatment. Actions regarding investigation and risk treatment should be delegated to appropriate level of organisation, and further investigations and treatment plans may be developed.

5 Broadly acceptable risk. No action required beyond monitoring of risk level and priority during monitoring and review phase.

Table 10: Priority level descriptions.18


APPENDiX C: RiSK PRiORiTY

Priority is determined automatically by the WA Risk Register Tool and ranges from 1 (highest priority) to 5 (lowest priority) (Table 10). Priority is based on the consequence, likelihood and confidence. The confidence level is used to select one of the five priority matrices below (Tables 11-15) and then the likelihood and consequence are used to select the priority level. For example, a risk with a major consequence and a rare likelihood that has been assessed with the highest confidence level would lead to a risk priority of 3, using Table 11. If the same risk was assessed with a low confidence level the risk priority would be a priority of 2, using Table 15.



Table 11: Priority levels at highest confidence.19

CONSEQUENCE

LIKELIHOOD Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic

Almost Certain 4 4 3 2 1

Likely 5 4 4 2 2

Unlikely 5 5 4 3 2

Rare 5 5 5 3 3

Very Rare 5 5 5 4 3

Extremely Rare 5 5 5 4 4

CONSEQUENCE



Likely 4 4 3 2 1

Unlikely 5 4 3 2 2

Rare 5 5 4 3 2

Very Rare 5 5 4 3 3


CONSEQUENCE



Likely 4 3 2 1 1

Unlikely 4 4 3 2 1

Rare 5 4 3 2 2

Very Rare 5 5 4 3 2


Table 12: Priority levels at high confidence.19


Table 13: Priority levels at moderate confidence.19

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CONSEQUENCE



Likely 3 2 1 1 1

Unlikely 3 3 2 1 1

Rare 4 3 2 1 1

Very Rare 4 4 3 2 1


Table 14: Priority levels at low confidence.20

Table 15: Priority levels at lowest confidence.20


CONSEQUENCE



Likely 3 3 2 1 1

Unlikely 4 3 2 1 1

Rare 4 4 3 2 1

Very Rare 5 4 3 2 2


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State EM Preparedness Procedures

APPENDiX D: RiSK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP RECOMMENDATiONS

Workshop essentials

There are five key aspects to cover in a workshop, which are listed below. In addition to the risk assessment process itself, you will need to ensure that participants have all the knowledge they need to make a proper assessment of risks. As your workshop participants will come from various backgrounds and experiences, it is important that everyone is on the same page regarding the hazard, potential impacts and the scenario. It is often beneficial to have a series of presentations to ensure this is the case. If possible, you could enlist the help of a fellow stakeholder, preferably a HMA representative for the hazard that you will be looking at.

There is an overall workshop presentation PowerPoint template in the online toolbox which has example slides for items 2, 3 and 4 below.

1. Establish the hazard context (approximately 15 minutes) – this presentation establishes the context of the hazard. What is it, why does it happen, where can it occur, when can it occur, who has roles and responsibilities in the event of an emergency, etc. To help with this, a series of hazard videos that can be found on the SEMC website (https://www.semc.wa.gov.au/thehub/hazard-videos) which you can play for your workshop participants. If a video is not available for the hazard you have chosen, the facilitator may need to present this information, or ask an expert to assist.

2. Vulnerabilities and impacts (approximately 15 minutes) – this presentation should highlight the different aspects within your area of interest and how they might be impacted. This can link to the vulnerable elements identified in Section 2 across the five key impact areas. For example:

- economy: predominant industries/sectors, monetary figures for contribution to gross area product, location of major hubs etc.;

- people: population (including distribution), interesting facts about population (e.g. transient nature etc.);

- public administration: which services are likely to be disrupted (utilities), critical infrastructure (bridges, roads, ports, power stations) etc.;

- social setting: social fabric of the area, socioeconomic indicators, remote communities, aboriginal communities, mining communities etc.;

- environment: national parks, environmentally sensitive areas, bodies of water etc.

- other relevant information.

3. The scenario (approximately 10 minutes) – a presentation of the scenario that you have developed that will be used for the assessment (see Section 3 for more detail).

https://www.semc.wa.gov.au/thehub/hazard-videos

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4. Risk assessment presentation (approximately 10 minutes) – to be presented by the facilitator. This presentation describes the risk assessment process (detailed in Section 5) to the workshop participants, including explanation of the consequence, likelihood and confidence.

5. Risk analysis process – following the presentations, this is the main body of the workshop. It is the collective process where the facilitator leads the participants through the analysis process outlined in Section 5, assigning consequence, likelihood and confidence levels to each risk statement.

Once you have decided on your hazard and scenario, identify and liaise with those who will be assisting you on the day. This includes:

• the facilitator you have chosen (whether this is you or someone else);

• presenters of the presentations listed above (if not being presented by the facilitator); and

• a data entry person (see Section 2 for more information).

Ensure everyone understands their roles and what needs to be completed prior to the workshop and during the workshop itself.

RiSK ANALYSiS FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTiONS:

What do the facilitator and data entry roles entail?The facilitator should concentrate on managing the discussion to reach fair and valuable conclusions for each risk statement. It is recommended that they record the consequence, likelihood and confidence levels on a risk statement sheet in front of them during the workshop. This not only acts as a back up to the data entry person, but also allows the facilitator to initiate discussion or refer back to statements if needed.

The data entry person should take notes regarding the discussion amongst participants in the ‘comments’ section of the WA Risk Register Tool throughout the workshop. Comments should add context to the assessments made. In addition, once the consequence, likelihood and confidence levels have been chosen by the participants, these should be entered in to the WA Risk Register Tool using the drop downs next to the appropriate risk statement.

Why is it best to move from right to left with the consequence table?The risk assessment process identifies the maximum possible consequence, and the likelihood of this consequence. To ensure the maximum consequence is chosen, it is best to start from the right hand side (catastrophic) and move left until the criteria is met. For example, if participants are debating between a major consequence with a 50% chance of occurrence and a moderate consequence that is definitely likely to happen (100% likelihood) then major should be chosen as it is the maximum possible consequence.



What duration of impacts should be considered?There is no limit to the duration of impacts and you should consider the whole event, whether this lasts for a few hours or many years. You should consider all impacts that can be directly attributed to the particular scenario you are assessing.

What if there is no relevant expert present at the workshop?If there is no relevant expert at the workshop for a particular risk statement you can estimate the consequence and likelihood and reduce the confidence level. You should also follow up this particular risk statement with the relevant person after the workshop.

Where do the numbers in the consequence table come from?The values in the consequence criteria are based on percentages of population and gross area product of your area of interest. The percentages used for each level are shown in the generic consequence table (Table 1).

Why is the number of deaths and/or injuries/illnesses the same for different consequence levels?The numbers in the people category are based on the population of the area of interest and are rounded up to the nearest whole number. For small populations where the number of deaths and/or injuries/illnesses is rounded up to 1, several consequence levels may be the same. Where there are different consequence levels with the same criteria, the highest consequence should be chosen (i.e. major not moderate).

Do all criteria in each impact category need to be met to reach a particular consequence level?No. All impact areas have multiple sub-categories or dot points. Only one criteria in an impact area needs to be met in order for a particular consequence to be assigned. For example, in the social setting impact category there are four sub-categories (community wellbeing, community services, culturally important object and culturally important activities) and within the community wellbeing category there are three dot points for each consequence level. Any one of the criteria can be used to assess a social setting risk statement. Make sure you choose the highest possible consequence.

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