WHY SOCIAL SCIENCES ARE NOT SCIENTIFIC ENOUGH

Taagepera, 2008

Chiara Francavilla 27th September 2010

AIMS

Highlight problems in social sciences studies Provide suggestions

PROBLEMS

Overuse and misuse of statistical analysis

In particular linear regression

PROBLEMS (CONT.)

Prevalence of Descriptive models rather than Predictive

Reversed role of scientists and statisticians

SUGGESTIONS

A better balance of methods, more model building

Directional vs quantitative prediction

dx\dt ‹0 x=f(x)

SUGGESTION (CONT.)

Quantitatively predictive logical methods More than directional Based on logical considerations Knowledge of conditions under which the model can/cannot

apply Introducible without numerical data

SUGGESTIONS (CONT.)

How to construct predictive logical models? In general: consider broad conceptual constrains and specific

problems

Guidelines: Parsimony Absurdity avoidance:

Contradiction avoidance

SUGGESTIONS (CONT.)

The more the merrier or the Occam’s razor? Statisticians’ vs scientists’ goals

Interdependent variables

REFERENCES

Taagepera, 2008. ‘Why social sciences are not scientific enough’ and ‘How to construct predictive models: Simplicity and Nonabsurdity’ in Making Social Sciences More Scientific, Oxford: Oxford UP

Fearon and Laitin, 2003. ‘Ethnicity, Insurgency and Civil War’. American Political Science Review, 97(1)

QUESTIONS

1. Can we carry out researches in the social science field with the same instruments and methods used in the natural science one?

2. In referring to the Occam’s razor principle, how can we determine in advance which considerations are not essential?

3. The construction of a logical model before the collection of the data might influence the latter and lead to biased results. Discuss

LINEAR REGRESSION

DESCRIPTIVE VS PREDICTIVE MODEL

Main question

Nature Core method Mathematical format

Direct output Indirect output

How? Descriptive Statistical data analysis

Generic Statistical

Nonfalsifiable postdiction

Limited scope postdiction-based prediction

Why? Explanatory Logical consideration

Subject-specific conceptualization

Prediction falsifiable upon testing

Broader substantiated prediction

Taagepera, 2008:7

EXAMPLE: DESCRIPTIVE MODEL

Number and Percentage of Countries with Ongoing Civil Wars by Year from 1945 to 1999 (Fearon and Laitin, 2003)

EXAMPLE: PREDICTIVE MODEL

Probability of Civil War Onset per Five-Year Period (Fearon and Laitin, 2003)

DIRECTIONAL VS QUANTITATIVE PREDICTIONTaagepera, 2008:26-27