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Social VWs Adoption Overview: Perspective on Where We Are and What’s Ahead

Social VWs Adoption Overview: Perspective on Where We Are and What’s Ahead

Eilif Trondsen, Director

Virtual Worlds @ Work, SRIC-BI

Webinar—March 18, 2009

© 2009 by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. All rights reserved. 2

AgendaAgenda

A “Chasm Perspective” on VW Adoption

Platform and Content Issues

Applications and Early Adopters

Adoption Phases and Major Applications

VW Adoption Accelerators

What’s Ahead?

Q&A


Virtual Worlds: Remain An Early Stage MarketVirtual Worlds: Remain An Early Stage Market

BARRIERS TO MAINSTREAM VWs:Difficult to usePerformance issuesUnclear benefits

CAN VIRTUAL WORLDS “CROSS THE CHASM”AND REACH MAINSTREAM CUSTOMERS ?

InnovatorsEarly

AdoptersEarly

MajorityLate

Majority Laggards

SecondLife

GoogleSearch

iTunesFacebook

Source: Geoffrey Moore / SRIC-BI

DRIVERS FOR MAINSTREAM VWs:Growing use & awarenessEngaging environmentsRapid innovation

Other issues:Proliferation of platformsImmature technologyParadigm shift? (Heavy vs thinclient/browser-based VW) and proprietary vs. open sourceCosts often not well understood

Open sourceplatforms


Visionaries versus PragmatistsVisionaries versus Pragmatists

Visionaries vs.

Adventurous

Early buy-in

Think big

Go it alone

Spend big

First strike capability

Think Pragmatists are pedestrian

Pragmatists

Prudent

Wait-and-see-attitude

Manage expectations

Maintain relationships

Spend to budget

Staying power

Think Visionaries are dangerous

Pragmatists don’t trust visionaries as references.

Source: Geoffrey Moore, Crossing The Chasm

Chasm


Platform vs. Content Issues—Especially in L&T Applications Platform vs. Content Issues—Especially in L&T Applications

Access issuesBest platforms for specific applica-tions, like L&T?Proprietary vs. open sourceTools and learning curve forcontent creationPlatform roadmap: When and whatnew features and functions will beadded

Access issuesBest platforms for specific applica-tions, like L&T?Proprietary vs. open sourceTools and learning curve forcontent creationPlatform roadmap: When and whatnew features and functions will beadded

Designing for effective learning in VWs is “new science & art”Interactive learning design: Scarce skillNeed new assessment methodologiesand tools—especially for team learningNeed: Building and adapting existingsimulations and games for VWs

Designing for effective learning in VWs is “new science & art”Interactive learning design: Scarce skillNeed new assessment methodologiesand tools—especially for team learningNeed: Building and adapting existingsimulations and games for VWs

PlatformsPlatforms

ContentContent

L&T: Learning and Training

Note: “If content is King,context is the Kingdom!”

Tony O’Driscoll

Structured vs. unstructuredFormal vs. informal

“Serendipity creates unintended benefits”

Sandy Kearney, Researcher/Analyst


Most Corporate VW Adopters Are Still in First Two Phases Most Corporate VW Adopters Are Still in First Two Phases

Deg

ree

of u

ncer

tain

tyPr

ojec

t sco

pe

Learning LabExploringExperimenting

Pilot

Time

Review / try platforms

Deployment & Implementation

1

2

3

Select testplatform

Select deploymentplatform

BP, Nokia, Cisco and many othershave evaluated a number of different platforms, in some cases “short listing”a few for small pilot tests

A number of companies have selectedOpenSim as test platform, interested incomparing it to Second Life and other platforms

“SL behind-fireall” offering from LL,likely in 2009, could provide significantboost in popularity of SL as corporate platform of choice.

LL: Linden Lab; SL: Second Life


Serious Applications With Greatest Appeal So FarSerious Applications With Greatest Appeal So Far

MeetingsEmployees, developer communities and business partners—and slowly, customers—meet in Second LifeEarly adopters include Microsoft, Intel, IBM, and Cisco

Learning and Training (L&T)Growing numbers of companies exploring using VWs for a range of different L&T applications

BP, IBM. Cisco, AstraZeneca, and Accenture are among early adopters

Collaborative WorkMany expect VWs to be popular collaboration platformsImmersive Workspaces of RRR indicative of what will see growing use

Operational ApplicationsData visualization, simulations and process optimizations will likely find useStatoilHydro, Shaspa among organizations exploring opportunities

Events/conference businesses gaining Interest—but face issues:

Need to accommodate large numbers of people

Need VERY easy-to-use platforms


VW Adoption AcceleratorsVW Adoption Accelerators

Compelling value propositions for senior management

Strong reference cases and/or case studies

Credible ROI estimates—or strong qualitative business case—for VW applications in specific contexts

Low cost offering from Linden Lab of “behind-firewall-SL”—and the sooner the better; when and what cost?

Rapid evolution of OpenSim out of Alpha version into Beta and beyond—and have fewer bugs, better reliability, VOIP, etc.

Successful examples of how browser-based VWs can be used in learning & training and other applications


What’s Ahead for Serious VW Adoption?What’s Ahead for Serious VW Adoption?

Time2007-2008 2009 2010 2011

Rate Of

Growth In VW

Adoption

Economic crisis will reduce available budgetsBusiness uncertainty under-mining new projectsVWs offer potential for costreductionNet: Range from lower to somewhat higher growth

Assuming economy turns around in early 2010VW platforms have seensignificant improvementsNew platforms—including open source—offer newattractive optionsStill, economic uncertaintyyields range of growth rateestimates

2010Strong economic rebound produces new optimism and new VW projectsNew projects will build on 2010 experiences with newplatformsMore indepth understandingand insight for how to optimize applications give new confidence in launchingprojects

2011

2009


Another Future Perspective on Future Learning: By Clark AldrichAnother Future Perspective on Future Learning: By Clark Aldrich2009: Understanding and Procuring Forms of Highly Interactive Virtual Environments

Organizations will seek to resolve the differences in structure, use, best practices, and metrics between virtual worlds, serious games, and educational simulations.In corporations, 80% of VWs will be greatly underutilized

2011: Authoring in HIVE Environments and Presenting Increased ComplexityWe will see the widespread availability of robust and easy-to-use authoring tools and environments

New genres will continue to be created around "learning-to-do" content2013: Rethinking Knowledge and Subject Matter Experts

Reports produced will not be binders but experiences; not bullet points and inspirational quotes but equations, interfaces, and dynamic relationships.

2015: Applying the New View of Knowledge and WisdomTeaching and learning will focus on “Big Skills,” which are the most valued non-technical skills a person can have, including leadership, nurturing /stewardship, communication, and relationship management.

HIVE: Highly Interactive Virtual Environments

Source: http://clarkaldrich.blogspot.com/2009/03/virtual-worlds-gamessimulations.html


Contact InformationContact Information

Eilif Trondsen, Ph.D.

Director, Virtual Worlds @ Work

SRI Consulting Business Intelligence

Telephone: +1 650 859 2665

E-mail: [email protected]

www.sric-bi.com/VWW

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