Vulnerability PK Aggarwal

8/3/2019 Vulnerability PK Aggarwal

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Vulnerability of Indian Agricultureto Climate Change:

Current State of Knowledge

MOEF_NATCOM; 14th October 2009

P.K. Aggarwal and others

Indian Agricultural Research Institute

New Delhi


2/22

Climate change and agriculture in

India: ICAR Research Network

A Network on

Climate Changeand agriculturelaunched in 2004for studies onimpact

assessment,adaptation andmitigation options

Current strength:23 institutes; > 100scientists

Funding: ICAR

Many more centersof research now.


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ICAR Network on Climate Changeand Agriculture: Thematic areas

ICAR Network on Climate change and Agriculture

VulnerabilityGHG emissions

andmitigation

Plantation CropsCoconut, apple

CropsWheat,Paddy,Potato,Pulses,Cotton,

Vegetables

Live stockCows

Buffalo

Poultry

FisheriesMarine

Fresh watercorals

SoilFertilityErosion

Water

SpecialEcosystems

RainfedCoastal

Hill

RiceUpland

LowlandIrrigated

Deepwater

Live stock

Soil Carbon

Crop residueburning

ICAR Network on Climate change and Agriculture

VulnerabilityGHG emissions

andmitigation

Plantation CropsCoconut, apple

CropsWheat,Paddy,Potato,Pulses,Cotton,

Vegetables

Live stockCows

Buffalo

Poultry

FisheriesMarine

Fresh watercorals

SoilFertilityErosion

Water

SpecialEcosystems

RainfedCoastal

Hill

RiceUpland

LowlandIrrigated

Deepwater

Live stock

Soil Carbon

Crop residueburning

Only rice, wheat, soybean and GHG inventory in NATCOM1


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Impact assessment of climate change:

Characterizing crop response to carbon dioxide


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Source: Singh et al. 2009

Impact assessment of climate change:Characterizing crop response to temperature- TGTs


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Impact assessment of climate change:Process- based simulation models


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Projected impacts of climate change

on Indian agriculture

Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of

rice, wheat, legumes and oilseeds by 10-20%. A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields

of wheat, soybean, mustard, groundnut, andpotato by 3-7%. Much higher losses at highertemperatures.

Productivity of most crops to decrease onlymarginally by 2020 but by 10-40% by 2100.

Possibly some improvement in yields of chickpea,

rabi maize, sorghum and millets; and coconut inwest coast. Less loss in potato, mustard and vegetables in

north-western India due to reduced frost damage.


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Projected impacts of climate change

on Indian agriculture

Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase

production variability Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and

insects

Increasing sea and river water temperatures are

likely to affect fish breeding, migration, andharvests Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement

for livestock

Animal distress due to heat; effects on reproduction Loss of 1.5 million tons of milk by 2020 Imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on

Europe and N.America, and negative impacts on us.


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Impact of climate change on wheat

30

3540

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2000 2020 2050 2080

Year

Wheatproduction,

milliontons Control

Adapted


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Impact of climate change on potato

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2020 2050

Year

Los

sinpotatoproduction,

%


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Impact of climate change on length of

growing period in rainfed areas


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1980

-81

1982

-83

1984

-85

1986

-87

1988

-89

1990

-91

1992

-93

1994

-95

1996

-97

1998

-99

2000

-200

1

Years

Yield

(Tons)

Impact on apples: Declining yields in

Himachal due to inadequate chilling

Source: HPKVV/ICAR network


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Impact of climate change on

coconut yields

-35 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 +5 +10 +15 +20 +25 +30 +35 +40 +45

RELATIVE YIELD DEVIATION

Districts with white colour were not simulatedSource: Naresh Kumar et al. 2008


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Impact on quality: Effect of temperature on

basmati rice quality

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32

Mean temperature during grain growth, C

L/B

ratio

PS-2P-1121S. Basmati

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32

Mean temperature during grain growth, C

Grainelongationratio

PS-2P-1121S.Basmati

Source: IARI/ICAR network


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0.1% - 1%

1% - 10%

10 % - 25%

25% - 50%

>50%

1961-1976 1977-1986

1987-1996 1997-2006

Impact on fish: Extension of northern boundary

of oil sardine.The colored lines indicate percentage of All India oil sardine production

Source: CMFRI/ICAR network


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Impact of climate change on milk

production: Temperature-Humidity Index

Source: NDRI/ICAR networ

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

50 60 70 80 90

THI

Milkyield,

l/ha


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Uncertainties

Errors in climate models, crop modelsand data used

No links with future water availability

No consideration of weather extremes Future technological developments

and socio-economic scenarios


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Climate change: A key driver for agriculture

in 21st century

Increasing demand for food >276 million tons by 2021 as against current

production of 230 million tons now

Increasing competition for resources For land, water, capital, and labour from industry and

urban settlements

Increasing variability of global supplies,and prices

Adapting agriculture to climate change:Need to consider other challenges for future food security


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Adaptation in agriculture is a

continuous process

Agriculture diversity is a manifestation of

climatic adaptation Farmers/society have always adapted when

allowed by technology availability, their socio-economic capacity, and economics.

Traditional coping strategies: mixed cropping,changing land use, diversification of incomesources, migration,

Nature of agriculture has changed - fromsubsistence oriented to market oriented: Needfor other adaptation strategies


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Increasing adaptive capacity of

agriculture to climate change

Concerns:

Changes in mean temperatureand rainfall

Variability in weather/climate,particularly unpredictable short-term weather extremes


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1. Assist farmers in coping with current climatic risks-weather services, agro-advisories, insurance, community banks

for seed and fodder

2. Intensify food production systems-technology and input delivery systems, market links

3. Improve land and water management-technologies for resource conservation and use efficiency

4. Enable policies and regional cooperation-incentives to farmers for resource conservation and use

efficiency, pricing of resources, credit for transition toadaptation technologies

5. Strengthen research for enhancing adaptive capacity-varieties, resource conservation technologies, pest surveillance

-for improved assessments: mechanism for collection anddissemination of weather, soil, water and agricultural data

How to adapt agriculture to climate change?


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Conclusions

Climate change is likely to reduce yields of mostcrops in long-term. In short-term effects may besmall (preliminary results, better field data and models needed).

Increased climatic variability could cause significantfluctuations in production even in short-term.

Adaptation strategies can help minimize negativeimpacts. These need greater research, policy andfinancial support.

Costs of adaptation are less understood but likely to

be high; costs of inaction could be even higher. Adaptation practices take time to become effective.

A crop variety, e.g. takes 10-20 yrs to develop. Needto act now.

Vulnerability PK Aggarwal

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