Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt...
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![Page 1: Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting 30 March 2011, Budapest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062321/56649ef65503460f94c09d4e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Vulnerability indicatorsand their relation to the measure selection
Natasha Marinova
ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting
30 March 2011, Budapest
So
urce
FA
O
![Page 2: Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting 30 March 2011, Budapest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062321/56649ef65503460f94c09d4e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
DPSIR Framework
![Page 3: Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting 30 March 2011, Budapest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062321/56649ef65503460f94c09d4e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Water Scarcity – Water stress
Drivers Pressures State Impacts
Climate change T • Precipitation (and propagation of its effects on hydrological cycle)
• Evapotraspiration• Morphology• Topology• Soil water holding
capacity
Jobs
Incomes
PopulationGDPTechnology dev.Markets(from SCENES)
•Structural changes•Land use changes:
Urbanization•Resource use efficiency•Management practices
Quality and quantity of waste water
![Page 4: Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting 30 March 2011, Budapest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062321/56649ef65503460f94c09d4e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
DroughtsDrivers Pressures State Impacts
Climate change T
• Precipitation (and propagation of its effects on hydrological cycle)
• Evapotraspiration• Morphology• Topology• Soil water holding
capacity
Changes in return period of drought events
Baseline: Minimum flow during a drought event with recurrence period of 50 years D50base
Future (2050): Minimum flow during a drought event with a recurrence period of 10 years D10future
Severe drought event if D10future< D50base
• Relative area affected by droughts
• People affected by drought
Jobs
Incomes
PopulationGDPTechnology dev.Markets(from SCENES)
•Structural changes•Land use changes:
Urbanization•Resource use efficiency•Management practices
Not adjusted to the drought event water demand
Quality and quantity of waste water
![Page 5: Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting 30 March 2011, Budapest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062321/56649ef65503460f94c09d4e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Population affected by droughts for EcF and SuE scenarios
![Page 6: Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting 30 March 2011, Budapest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062321/56649ef65503460f94c09d4e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Agreement of model runs projecting severe drought events
• Large areas in the Mediterranean Western and Eastern Europe with agreement of up to 100%
• Agreement of more than half of the models in parts of France, Ireland, UK
• Heterogeneous result in Central and Western Europe
![Page 7: Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting 30 March 2011, Budapest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062321/56649ef65503460f94c09d4e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
FloodsDrivers Pressures State Impacts
Climate change T
• Precipitation (and propagation of its effects on hydrological cycle)
• Evapotraspiration• Morphology• Topology• Soil water holding
capacity
Changes in magnitude of 1-in-100 y flood event
• Area affected by floods
• People affected by floods
Jobs
Incomes
PopulationGDPTechnology dev.Markets(from SCENES)
• Land use changes – urbanization, deforestation, development in flood prone zone, control of rivers
• Level of protection (design return level)
•River bed sedimentation •Loss of wetlands and riparian zones•Soil sealing•Not properly planned drainage
![Page 8: Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting 30 March 2011, Budapest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062321/56649ef65503460f94c09d4e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Relative area affected by floods
• Based on the ensemble median
• More than 80% in part of the UK and the Netherlands
• ~ 20% in southern Norway, parts of France, and the Alps
![Page 9: Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting 30 March 2011, Budapest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062321/56649ef65503460f94c09d4e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
People affected by floods
![Page 10: Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting 30 March 2011, Budapest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062321/56649ef65503460f94c09d4e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Agreement of model runs projecting severe flood events
• Agreement of more than half of the models in parts of western France, the Netherlands, Eastern Europe and parts of UK, Spain, Italy, Norway, Sweden
• Low flood risk around the Baltic see
![Page 11: Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting 30 March 2011, Budapest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062321/56649ef65503460f94c09d4e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Sea Level Rise
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People affected by SLR, 2080
Source PESETA, Coastal Report
![Page 13: Vulnerability indicators and their relation to the measure selection Natasha Marinova ClimWatAdapt Second stakeholders meetingmeeting 30 March 2011, Budapest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062321/56649ef65503460f94c09d4e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Thank you!