Vulnerability & Exploit Trends: A Deep Look Inside the Data
29
Vulnerability & Exploit Trends: A Deep Look Inside the Data Ed Bellis & Michael Roytman
-
Upload
kenna -
Category
Technology
-
view
28 -
download
2
Transcript of Vulnerability & Exploit Trends: A Deep Look Inside the Data
Vulnerability & Exploit Trends: A Deep Look Inside the Data Ed Bellis & Michael Roytman
Vulnerability & Exploit Trends: A Deep Look Inside the Data
Ed Bellis & Michael Roytman
Nice To Meet You
• CoFounder Kenna
About Us
About Risk I/O
• Former CISO Orbitz• Contributing Author: Beautiful Security• CSO Magazine/Online Writer
• Data-Driven Vulnerability Intelligence Platform• DataWeek 2012 Top Security Innovator• 3 Startups to Watch - Information Week
• InfoSec Island Blogger
• 16 Hot Startups - eWeek
Ed Bellis
• Naive Grad Student• Still Plays With Legos• Barely Passed Regression Analysis
• Once Jailbroke His iPhone 3G• Has Coolest Job In InfoSec
Michael Roytman
Starting From Scratch
Academia!• GScholar!• JSTOR!• IEEE!• ProQuest!
InfoSec Blogs!• CSIOs!• Pen Testers!• Threat Reports!• SOTI/DBIR!!
Twitter!• Thought Leaders (you
know who you are)!• BlackHats!• Vuln Researchers!
Primary Sources!• MITRE!• OSVDB!• NIST CVSS
Committee(s)!• Internal Message
Boards for ^!Text
CISOs
#DoingItWrong
Data Fundamentalism
Don’t Ignore What a Vuln Is: Creation Bias (http://blog.kennasecurity.com/2013/04/data-fundamentalism/) <Shameless(ful) Self-
Promotion
Jerico/Sushidude @ BlackHat (https://www.blackhat.com/us-13/briefings.html#Martin)
Luca Allodi (https://securitylab.disi.unitn.it/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=seminar-unimi-apr-13.pdf):
Protip: http://disi.unitn.it/~allodi/allodi-12-badgers.pdf
#DoingItWrong
”Since 2006 Vulnerabilities have declined by 26 percent.” -http://csrc.nist.gov/groups/SNS/rbac/documents/vulnerability-trends10.pdf
“The total number of vulnerabilities in 2013 is up 16 percent so far when compared to what we saw in the same time period in 2012. ”-http://www.symantec.com/content/en/us/enterprise/other_resources/b-intelligence_report_06-2013.en-us.pdf
What’s Good?
Bad For Vulnerability Statistics:
NVD, OSVDB, ExploitDB, CVSS, Patches, Microsoft Reports, etc, et al, and so on.
Good For Vulnerability Statistics:
Vulnerabilities.
Adding Some Flavor
Defend Like You’ve Done It Before
Counterterrorism
Known Groups
Surveillance
Threat Intel, Analysts
Targets, Layouts
Past Incidents, Close Calls
Uh, Sports?
Opposing Teams, Specific Players
Gameplay
Scouting Reports, Gametape
Roster, Player Skills
Learning from Losing
InfoSec?
What It Should Be
Groups, Motivations
Exploits
Vulnerability Definitions
Asset Topology, Actual Vulns on System
Learning from Breaches
Work With What You’ve Got:
Akamai, Safenet
ExploitDB, Metasploit
NVD, MITRE
Show Me The Money
23,000,000 Vulnerabilities!
Across 1,000,000 Assets!
Representing 9,500 Companies!
Using 22 Unique Scanners!
Whatchu Know About Data?
Duplication
Vulnerability Density
Remediation
Duplication
0
225,000
450,000
675,000
900,000
1,125,000
1,350,000
1,575,000
1,800,000
2,025,000
2,250,000
2 or more scanners 3 or more 4 or more 5 or more 6 or more
Duplication - Lessons From a CISO
We Have: F(Number of Scanners) => Number of Duplicate Vulnerabilities
We Want: F(Number of Scanners) => Vulnerability Coverage
Make Decisions At The Margins!
<---------Good Luck!
0.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Density
Type of Asset ~Count
Hostname 20,000
Netbios 1000
IP Address 200,000
File 10,000
Url 5,000
Hostname
Netbios
IP
File
Url
0.0 22.5 45.0 67.5 90.0
CVSS And Remediation Metrics
0.0
350.0
700.0
1050.0
1400.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Average Time To Close By Severity Oldest Vulnerability By Severity
CVSS And Remediation - Lessons From A CISORemediation/Lack Thereof, by CVSS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
NVD Distribution by CVSS
The Kicker - Live Breach Data
1,500,000 !Vulnerabilities Related to Live Breaches Recorded!
June, July 2013 !
CVSS And Remediation - Nope
0.0
1750.0
3500.0
5250.0
7000.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Oldest Breached Vulnerability By Severity
CVSS - A VERY General Guide For Remediation - Yep
0.0
40000.0
80000.0
120000.0
160000.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Open Vulns With Breaches Occuring By Severity
The One Billion Dollar Question
Probability(You Will Be Breached On A Particular Open Vulnerability)?
1.98%=(Open Vulnerabilities | Breaches Occurred On Their CVE)/(Total Open Vulnerabilities)
I Love It When You Call Me Big Data
Probability A Vulnerability Having Property X Has Observed Breaches
RANDOM VULN
CVSS 10
CVSS 9
CVSS 8
CVSS 6
CVSS 7
CVSS 5
CVSS 4
0.00000 0.01000 0.02000 0.03000 0.04000
Enter The Security Mendoza Line
Wouldn’t it be nice if we had something that helped us divide who we considered “Amateur” and who we considered “Professional”?
http://riskmanagementinsight.com/riskanalysis/?p=294
Josh Corman expandsthe Security Mendoza Line
“Compute power grows at the rate of doubling about every 2
years”
“Casual attacker power grows at the rate of Metasploit”
http://blog.cognitivedissidents.com/2011/11/01/intro-to-hdmoores-law/
Alex Hutton comes up with Security Mendoza Line
I Love It When You Call Me Big Data
Probability A Vulnerability Having Property X Has Observed Breaches
Random Vuln
CVSS 10
Exploit DB
Metasploit
MSP+EDB
0.00 0.08 0.15 0.23 0.30
I Love It When You Call Me Big Data
P(Breaches Observed On That Vuln | Random Vuln)
1.98%
Thank You
Follow UsBlog: http://blog.kennasecurity.comTwitter: @mroytman
@ebellis@riskio
We’re Hiring! http://www.kennasecurity.com/jobs
