VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION MEASURES UNDER UNFCCC AND KYOTO PROTOCOL

November 19-20, Budapest, Hungary

CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY

ON THE EUROPEAN RESOURCE BASE

NOVÁKY BÉLA

CLIMATE CHANGE

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as it now evident from observations

SPM WGI

Global average temperature

Global average sea level

Northern hemisphere snow cover

Continued greenhouse gas emissions …would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21-st century

SPM WGI

Europe - mean climate

Increase in temperature in all seasons and year (A2: 2.5-5.5 °C, B2:1-4 °C)

Annual precipitation increases in N and Atlantic Europe, decreases in S and Central Europe

Seasonal change in precipitation varies from season to season and across regions

WGII Chapter 12.3

WGI Chapter 11

Europe - extreme events

Maximum temperature increases in S and C Europe much more than in N Europe

C. Europe would experience the number of hot days as currently occur in S. Europe

Increase in the intensity of daily precipitation, even for areas with a decrease in mean precipitation,

e.g. increase in short duration summer rainfall by up to 40% in Slovakia (Lapin and Hlavcova 2003)

WGII Chapter 12.3

OBSERVED CHANGES

The SPM concludes that many natural systems are being

affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increase

WGII SPM

For the first time, wide-ranging impacts of change in current

climate have been documentedWGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

Warming trend throughout Europe

• for 1901-2005 is +0,90 °C (0,086 °C/decad)

• for 1979-2005 is +0,41 °C (0,164 °C/decad)

Regionally the trend is highest in C, NE Europe, and in mountains, lowest in Mediterranean

Mean precipitation

• is increasing in most of Atlantic and N Europe

• is decreasing along Mediterranean (east)

• no significant change in west of Mediterranean

Increase in precipitation per wet dayWGII Chapter 12.2

Present

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

Unprecedented heat wave in 2003

Extreme glacier melt in the Alps

Low river flow, e.g. in the Danube river

30% reduction in gross primary production of terrestrial ecosystems

Wildfires

Excess death (about 35,000)

Cryosphere

Decrease in glacier volume and area (except some glaciers in Norway)

Paul et al. 2002

Cryosphere

Decrease in seasonal snow cover (at lower elevation) in Alps, in Slovakian mountains. No changes was observed in Bulgaria

Reductions in annual snow cover by about 1 day/year in lowland areas of C. Europe

Decrease in thickness and areal extent of permafrost in Russia. Increasing damages to infrastructure

Water

Increased runoff due to enhanced glacier melts, formation of lakes in the Alps

No significant change is detected in annual runoff in most part of Europe (Pekárová et al. 2004)

Significant trends in floods have not been detected globally (increase 27, decrease 31, and no trend 137 cases) (WGII Chapter 3)

Beaugrand et al. 2005

1000

km

Marine ecosystems Northward movement of warmer-water plankton by 10 ° latitude in NE Atlantic, retreat of colder-water plankton

Terrestrial ecosystems

Earlier leaf unfolding dates

Walther et al. 2002

Agriculture

More favourable conditions due to warmer summer in N. Europe

Olesen et al. 2006

Agriculture

In all wine regions of France wine quantities and qualities indices have increased WGII Chapter 1

Alcohol concentration of wine in Alsace

Duchéne and Schneider 2004

Human health

Increase in heat wave mortality (Mediterranean, Atlantic, Central) and decline in winter mortality

Movement of tick vectors northwards (e.g. Sweden) and to high latitude (e.g. Czech Republic)

Earlier onset and extension of season for allergic pollen (all of Europe)

The observed changes are consistent with projections of

impacts due to climate changeWGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

IMPACTS

Climate-related hazards will mostly increase, although

changes will vary geographically

WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

SLR and increasing storminess

Temperature Precipitation

Extreme Extreme Mean

Flash floods across Europe

Winter floods in maritime regions

Rockfalls

Coastal flooding, by

2080 additional 1,6 million

people to be affected

each year

Coastal erosion

More frequent and intense drought in S

and SE Europe

Dispersal of insects

Allergenic diseases

Cold mortality declines

More frequent and intense heat waves,

increased health related risk in most

of Europe

Increasing fire and peatland fire risk in Mediterranean and in C and E Europe

Natural hazards

Change in recurrence of 100-year droughts

2020s

2070s

Climate change is likely to magnify regional differences Europe’s natural resources

and assetsWGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

Increasing ecosystem productivity

Increasing water availability, increase in hydropower (15-30%)

Decreasing ecosystem productivity, decrease

forestry system

Decreasing water availability, summer flow can decrease up to 80%,

decrease in hydropower (20-50%)

Increase in crop yield

Decrease in yield for spring-sown crops (maize, sunflower, spring wheat)

Increase yield variability due to increase of extreme weather events

Change in annual runoff

Water stress is likely to increase, as well as the number

of people living in river basin under high water stress

WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

Water stress increases in Central and South-eastern Europe

The watershed areas under sever stress increases from 19% today to 35% by 2070

The number of additional people living under water stress conditions in region of 17 western European countries increases between 16 to 44 million

It is anticipated that Europe’s natural systems and biodiversity will be

substantially affected by climate change

WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

Natural systems• Small glacier will disappear and larger glaciers substantially shrink

• Duration of snow cover decreases by several weeks for each °C of temperature increase in the Alps at middle elevation

• Many (lowland) permafrost areas in the Arctic disappear. Loss of permafrost in Arctic will likely cause a reduction of some types of wetlands

• Inland waters in S. Europe are likely to have lower volume and increased salinization

Ecosystems

• Sea level rise causes an loss of up to 20% coastal wetlands• In mountains the tree line shifts upward by several hundred meters • Forested area increases in North and decreases in South. The northward expansion of forests is projected to reduce current tundra areas under some scenarios • Native conifers are replaced by deciduous trees in W. and C. Europe• Along the Mediterranean many ephemeral aquatic ecosystems disappears, and permanent shrinks• Higher nutrient loadings in N may intensify the eutrophication of lakes

Biodiversity• A large percentage of the European flora is projected to become vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered or extinct by the end of 21st century

• Mountain plants community face reductions of up to 60% of species. Mountain regions may experience a lost of endemism due to invasive species

• The range of plants is very likely to expand northward and contract in S. European mountains and in Mediterranean basin

• In freshwater ecosystems, biodiversity will increase in the North and decrease in the South

• High water temperature can produce high mortality for some mammals in the Mediterranean due to increased infections

2021-2050 2051-2080

Increase

Decrease

Most amphibian (45-69%) and reptile (61-89%) species are virtually certain to expand their range if dispersal were unlimited. However, under no dispersal, the range most (>97%) species will

become smaller

Climate change will pose challenges to many

European economic sectors and it is expected to alter the

distribution of economic activityWGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

• Climate change and increase of CO2 lead to overall small increases crop productivity. Agriculture will have to cope with increased water demand for irrigation in S. Europe

• Recruitment and production of marine fishery in the North Atlantic are likely to increase

• Winter heating demand decreases, summer cooling demand increases

• Droughts and reduced runoff affect river navigation (Rhine)

• Tourism along the Mediterranean is likely to decrease in summer and increase in spring and autumn. Reductions in the ski season in mountains. In the Austrian Alps 1 °C rise leads to 4 fewer weeks of skiing days in winter

ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY

Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts which is already unavoidable due to past emissions

A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability.

There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood

Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability, and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development WGII SPM

Adaptation to climate change is likely to benefit from experience gained in reactions to extreme

events, by specifically implementing proactive climate-

change risk management adaptation plans

WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

Preventive emergency plans and warning system to avoid and minimize the risk of natural hazards (flood warning system, evacuations, health warning systems)

More economical use of natural assets (reducing water demand, reducing leaky municipal and irrigation water systems, wastewater reuse and desalinization, water price)

Land use better suitable to climate change (change in species of forest, in crop species, introducing new crops and varieties, adapted seedlings, allocation land according to its changing suitability)

Better management practices (changes in cultivars, introduction of multi-species planting into mono-species coniferous plantations)

More dynamic strategy and new sides for conservation biodiversity (protected areas, nature reserves, botanical gardens) and lessening to minimum the other human induced stresses

Structural and design processes (structural measures for flood control, water reservoirs, urban planning, housing design, re-design of energy supply system, infrastructure planning and building techniques in permafrost areas)

Modification of human behaviour (autonomous and reactive change recreation and travel behaviour, choose new forms in tourism, changes in temporal pattern of seaside tourism)

Limitations in adaptation to water stress

Cost – high investment cost for building reservoirs, high energy cost for salinization

Environmental regulation – reservoirs, intensification of ground water use

Health concerns – wastewater

The great majority of organisms and ecosystems

are likely to have difficulties in adapting to climate change

WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

Adaptation in natural ecosystems

Low lying, geologically subsiding coasts are likely to be unable to adapt to sea level rise

No obvious climate adaptation options for tundra or alpine vegetation

Few obvious adaptation options, specific management have yet to be defined for mountain forests

AT: Increased coastal erosion and flooding; stressing of marine bio-systems and habitat loss; increased tourism pressure on coasts; greater winter storm risk and vulnerability of transport to winds

BO: Water logging; eutrophication of lakes and wetlands; increased coastal flooding and erosion; increased winter storm risk; reduced ski season; severe fires in drained peatland

TU: Thawing of permafrost; decreased tundra area; increased coastal erosion and flooding

CE: Increased frequency and magnitude of winter floods; increased variability of crop yields; increased health effects of heat waves

MT: Glaciers disappearing; reduced snow-cover period; upward shift of tree line; severe biodiversity losses; reduced ski season

ME: Reduced water availability; increased drought; severe biodiversity losses; increased forest fires; reduced summer tourism; reduced suitable cropping areas, increased energy demand in summer, reduced hydropower; increased land losses in estuaries and deltas; increased salinity and eutrophication of coastal waters

ST: Decreased crop yield; increased soil erosion; increased SLR with positive NAO; increased salinity of inland seas

Summary

Impacts are occurring now as a consequence of climate change

Future possible impacts have been identified

All regions of Europe will see negative impacts of climate change, although will also be positive effects, especially in North Europe

Negative impacts will predominant in the South. However as warming continues, negative impacts will also dominant in North Europe

Most vulnerable sectors and regions: tundra, Alpine and mediterranean-type ecosystems, low-lying coastal regions, water resources in mid-latitudes, human health in areas with low adaptive capacity

Thank you your attention

Novaky.Bela@kti.szie.hu