VTRUST Journal of Real Estate - HOUSING MARKET & OUTLOOK...
Transcript of VTRUST Journal of Real Estate - HOUSING MARKET & OUTLOOK...
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VTRUST Journal of Real Estate 23 November, 2016 Volume 2, Issue 1
Special Issue
Landed Housing Market and Outlook Report 2016 for the District of Ruessei Kaev
Ruessei Kaev’s landed housing market grew remarkably within the preceding five-year period from
2012 to 2016, with an average of 1,600 new housing units launched into the market each year. Well
over 2,800 units were completed in 2016, and it is projected that well over 3,000 additional units will
be finished off and ready for prospective occupants by 2017.
Fortunately, only 14 percent of the launched units are awaiting total completion recorded as of today,
whereas 17 percent are still listed on the market inventory. In sum, albeit a slight market slowdown
since the end of 2015, housing market stimuli initiated by developers has come to ignite the demand
engine again, giving rise to a ‘slightly’ positive trend expected to continue over the course of 2017.
Report Summary
Author
Hoem Seiha
Director of Research, VTrust Appraisal Co., Ltd.
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Ruessei Kaev District
Ruessei Kaev district (Khan Ruessei Kaev or Khmer: ខណ្ឌ
ឬស្សីកែវ) is one of Phnom Penh’s 12 districts and adminis-
tratively subdivided into 6 communes (Sangkat or ស្ង្កា ត់),
namely Chrang Chamreh Ti Muoy, Chrang Chamreh Ti
Pir, Kilomaetr Lekh Prammuoy, Ruessei Kaev, Svay Pak,
and Tuol Sangkae. The district lies north and northeast of
the prominent central business districts of Doun Penh and
Tuol Kouk, having easy and quick access to the central city
of Phnom Penh. As combined, Ruessei Kaev district is cur-
rently home to an estimated number of 180,000 residents.
Introduction
The rapid growth in population, increasing traffic pressure,
and rising property prices in the inner city center have all
quickened the increasing rate of urban expansion to many
different suburban parts of the capital, including many parts
of Ruessei Kaev district. Thus, housing demand started to
exist, especially in the suburbs, as a way to accommodate
this rapid growing population.
Landed housing market began in
Phnom Penh since 2002, when a
few of supplies were on the market
and some of the housing construc-
tion work was started for a few hun-
dred housing units in some parts of
the capital. Afterwards, Ruessei
Kaev, one of Phnom Penh’s 12 dis-
tricts, saw a gradual increase in
cluster landed housing market since
2003, when Borey Rith develop-
ment was first launched in Tuol
Sangkae commune (in Ruessei
Kaev district), supplying a rough
number of 700 linkhouse units.
Housing Market Share
As of today, Ruessei Kaev district is home to a cumulative
supply of 12,200 landed housing units (with 86 percent
complete, while some under construction), clustering in
different communes of the district.
Recorded as of 2016, Chrang Chamreh Ti Muoy shares 21
percent (about 2,544 units) of the total cumulative housing
market supply; Chrang Chamreh Ti Pir, 4 percent (465
units); Kilomaetr Lekh Prammuoy, 25 percent (3,085
units); Ruessei Kaev commune, the largest market, up to 29
percent (3,574 units); Svay Pak, 5 percent (597 units); and
Tuol Sangkae, 16 percent (2,004 units).
Market Share by Project
Across Ruessei Kaev district, a number of cluster landed
housing projects have been positioned to offer residential
options for home buyers from different parts of the capital.
The market share dominance as of 2016 was Borey Vimean
Phnom Penh by Ly Hour Development Co., Ltd., sharing
up to 16 percent (1,977 units, 90 percent of which were
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complete) of the total cumulative supply.
Borey Peng Huoth, Borey New World, and Borey Rith
shared the second largest market in the district, up to 9.1
percent, 8.9 percent, and 8.4 percent (1,120 units, 1,102
units, and 1,035 units, respectively). Nevertheless, there
were also many other projects with fewer than 400 units,
collectively sharing up to 39 percent (4,787 units, 84 of
which were totally complete up to the date of reporting) of
the total cumulative market supply.
Housing Development, Completion, Sale
Performance by Commune
Among the six communes of Ruessei Kaev district, Chrang
Chamreh Ti Muoy had 1,398 units completed, 247 units
nearing completion, and 899 others still under construction.
Overall, the commune achieved up to 94 percent of all units
sold, outperforming the other communes within the district.
Chrang Chamreh Ti Pir fetched a relatively small market
share, having only 465 units in total supply, with 94 units
totally complete, 148 units nearing completion and 223 oth-
ers under construction. About 51 percent of the housing
units there had been sold out.
Kilomaetr Lekh Prammuoy held a relatively large market
stake within the district, having a total supply of 3,085
units, with 1,375 units totally complete, 593 units nearing
completion, and 1,072 others under construction. About 72
percent of the total housing supply there had been sold.
Ruessei Kaev commune took the largest share within the
district, having up to 3,574 units of the total supply, with
2,537 units totally complete, 291 units nearing completion,
and 733 others under construction. About 80 percent of the
total housing supply had been sold out.
Svay Pak had a total of 597 units supplied, without yet any
units complete by then, while 303 nearing completion, and
294 others under construction. About 78 percent of all the
units there had been sold out.
Last, Tuol Sangkae held a relatively large market stake,
having a total market supply of 2,004 units, with 1,850
units totally complete, 28 units nearing completion, and 111
others still under construction. Above all, all of the units
there had been sold at presale stage.
Supply and Completion by Year
Cluster housing market has been around in Ruessei Kaev
district since 2003, with first construction launch of about
739 units by Borey Rith in Tuol Sangkae, a commune im-
mediately adjacent to Boeng Kak Ti Muoy of Tuol Kouk
district to the southwest and Srah Chak of Doun Penh dis-
trict to the south.
Afterwards the construction work of cluster landed housing
started gradually until 2007, when the supply jumped,
bringing 1,275 of new off-plan units into the market. But
global economic downturn slowed down the speed of hous-
ing demand, yet most of landed housing construction work
was not delayed at the time. Until 2012, the economy start-
ed to show sign of recovery, and housing market supply
across the capital started to pick up again, but this time it was
stronger than it used to be during the preceding nine years.
In 2012, site work began for the construction of 2,218 units,
and in 2013 some additional construction work was
launched, bringing 1,859 of new off-plan units into the
market, with a few hundred housing units completed each
year then.
Despite the decline of new supply within the district, con-
struction completion started to grow gradually; and 2016
was the most remarkable year, when 2,827 housing units of
all types were totally completed. Further, by 2017, it is pro-
jected based on the data obtained from developers that an
additional figure of 3,383 units will be finished and ready
for buyers to move in.
Nevertheless, market supply within the district has started
to show sign of slowing down because 2016 and 2017 have
seen no sign of new housing supply, even though it is too
early to predict.
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Chrang Chamreh Ti Muoy
Chrang Chamreh Ti Muoy saw the first housing develop-
ment project in 2012, when construction work started for
546 units of the first out of 5 phases of Borey Vimean
Phnom Penh by Ly Hour Development Co., Ltd. In 2013,
two other housing projects were launched construction
work for 1,321 units, the majority of which were shared by
Borey Peng Huoth (the Star Premier).
The trend of the new supply slowed down following those
preceding years, except for housing completion which start-
ed to jump high in 2015 (with 892 units totally complete),
and onto 2017 it is projected that a figure of 1,146 units
will be finished that year.
Chrang Chamreh Ti Pir
Chrang Chamreh Ti Pir held a small market stake, with a
total supply of 464 units recorded as of 2016. In 2009, the
construction work started for 94 units and all of these were
completed in 2010. In 2012, another construction started
for 179 units, and many of them were partially complete.
2015 and 2016 saw new construction launches, with 56
units and 136 units respectively and all of these units are
slated to be totally finished by 2017.
Kilomaetr Lekh Prammuoy
Kilomaetr Lekh Prammuoy hosted up to 25 percent, or
3,085 of the total cumulative housing units supplied into
the market, within Ruessei Kaev district.
The market supply first started in 2006, with construction
work begun for 189 units and finished in 2007. During the
economic crisis, there was no further housing supply until
2012, when 1,207 units were added to the housing stock
and construction work. Then the market went quiet for a
few years until the new supply hit the market again in 2015.
That year, construction work started for 1,317 units, offer-
ing new presale supply into the market. 2016 saw a small
number of new entries to the construction work, yet the fig-
ure of housing project completion hopped on the horizon,
having totally finished off 1,465 units for buyers to move in.
Ruessei Kaev (Commune)
Ruessei Kaev commune fetched the largest housing market
share of the district. The supply began to exist in 2005 from
a small base. In 2007, a few projects with 504 units, includ-
ing one in the area so-called Stad Chas (meaning Old Stadi-
um), were added to the housing stock and launched for con-
struction work. Despite in a small number, the supply went
steadily almost every year since then, but the completion
was remarkable in 2009 (647 units finished), 2014 (651
units finished), and 2016 (821 units finished). Further, based
on the data obtained from the developers, 2017 is projected to
see another completion of 654 units.
Tuol Sangkae
Tuol Sangkae took a share of 16 percent of the cluster land-
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ed housing market in Ruessei Kaev district. The supply
grew strongly but abruptly over the course of the last dec-
ade, though all construction projects there were able to be
completed before and during the 2008-global economic
downturn. And it seemed there was no major entry into the
market since 2009 until 2015, when 139 units were
launched and slated to be finished in 2016.
Market Supply by Housing Types
Cumulative Market Supply
Across Ruessei Kaev district, the very small percentage of
cluster landed housing supply was classified as the purpose-
built ‘shophouses’, accounting for only 2.5 percent (290
units), as recorded cumulatively from 2003 to 2016. On the
other hand, purpose-built residential link-houses took the
largest market share, accounting for 84.8 percent (9,711
units) of the total market supply.
Another housing type classified as ‘semi-detached houses’
held the market stake of 9.5 percent (1,083 units), while
‘single detached houses’ accounted for only 3.2 percent
(369 units).
Supply Launched in 2016
New housing market supply launched in 2016 across Rues-
sei Kaev district was collectively 1,174 units, but the ma-
jority of them were link-houses, accounting for 96.7 percent
(1,135 units).
Shophouses accounted for 1.1 percent (13 units) of the new
launches, while semi-detached houses accounted for 2.2
percent (26 units) the same year.
There was no new supply of single-detached houses added
to the housing stock that year.
Cumulative Completion
Recorded as of 2016, a figure of housing completion since
2004 until 2016 was 8,019 units. Under each housing type,
purpose-built shophouses accounted for 3.2 percent (255
units) of the total housing completion.
Link-houses accounted for 83.4 percent (6,686 units), mak-
ing a lead in housing completion.
On the other hand, semi-detached and single-detached
houses as combined accounted for 13.5 percent (1,071
units) of the total completed housing units up to the date of
reporting.
Completion in 2016
In 2016 alone, the number of housing completion in the
district was collectively 2,739 units. Shophouses shared 1.3
percent (36 units), while link-houses took up to 86.5 per-
cent (2,370 units) of the housing completion that year.
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Semi-detached houses accounted for 10.2 percent (279
units), whereas single-detached houses accounted for 2 per-
cent (54 units) of the total housing completion the same
year.
Completion in 2017
It is projected based on the data obtained from the cluster
housing developers that, by 2017, a collective figure of
3,389 housing units will be completed. In that, shophouses
shared 1 percent (35 units) of the completion.
Link-houses, on the other hand, will contribute 89.3 percent
(3,025 units) of the total housing completion the same year.
Semi-detached and single detached houses as combined
will contribute 9.7 percent (329 units) of the completion by
2017.
Housing Prices and Sizes
Housing Prices
Pricing of housing units varies depending on the location,
type of the house, and quality of the development itself. In
Ruessei Kaev district, the price range could start from
US$40,000 per unit, for a simple link-house in less attrac-
tive location (but that price was only in the past 10 years),
to almost US$2 million per unit for a single detached villa
in an attractive location as recorded up to date.
However, the average list price for purpose-built shophous-
es in general across Ruessei Kaev district was US$161,100
per unit, while the average sold price was US$155,600 per
unit.
Link-houses were listed on average at US$109,800 per unit
and averagely sold at US$105,400 per units. Semi-detached
houses were listed on average at US$195,700 per units and
averagely sold at US$178,800 per units, while single-
detached houses were listed on average at US$643,000 and
averagely sold at US$595,500 per units.
Market Share by Price Range
Cluster landed housing market in Ruessei Kaev district of-
fered different sets of prices, depending on location, hous-
ing type, and the quality.
Practically, there has not been housing supply with pricing
about or less than US$25,000 per unit, but those with prices
above and up to US$50,000 per unit shared 9.7 percent of
the total current supply.
Housing units with prices between more than US$50,000 to
US$100,000 per unit accounted for 30.6 percent. And
above all, it was up to 41.9 percent of the total housing
market supply with pricing between more than US$100,000
to US$200,000 per unit.
Housing units with prices between above US$200,000 to
US$300,000 per unit accounted for 6.5 percent, and those
with prices above US$300,000 to US$500,000 per units as
combined accounted for 4.8 percent.
However, there was still a market for housing units with
prices of more than US$500,000 to US$1,800,000 per
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units, as combined accounting for 6.5 percent of the total
market share.
Housing Size
Sizes of housing units vary across the district, depending on
housing types and development schemes of the housing
projects.
However, based on common market supply within the dis-
trict of Ruessei Kaev, average size of land for shophouses
was between 90 sq.m and 160 sqm, while cover-up area
(built-up) of between 60 sqm and 110 sqm. The total build-
ing area (also GBA) could range from 160 sqm to 200 sqm.
Linkhouses are usually designed for residential purposes,
and thus the sizes are usually smaller than shophouses. In
practice, average land size for linkhouses was between 80
sqm and 180 sqm, with average cover-up area ranging from
60 sqm to 80 sqm and average GBA of 100 sqm to 180
sqm.
Semi-detached houses are designed with wider width but
relative depth (or length) if compared to linkhouses. For
average land size, semi-detached houses were usually
spared with 160 sqm to 300 sqm, depending on sub-types
and specific designs of the houses. Nevertheless, the built-
up area was between 80 sqm and 150 sqm, while the total
building area could range from 230 sqm to 300 sqm.
Above all, single-detached houses are larger and more ex-
pensive than another other housing types in the market. Av-
erage land size reserved for a single detached house could
range from 350 sqm to 780 sqm, while its over-up area
could be between 160 sqm and 280 sqm. And GBA could
range from 470 sqm to 600 sqm.
Housing Market Outlook
Cluster landed housing market in Ruessei Kaev district
grew strongly within the past-five-year period, with average
launches of new 1,600 units into the market every year be-
tween 2012 and 2016, while about 2,800 and 3,380 units
will be finished by 2016 and 2017, respectively.
Both sales and construction work performed well recently,
with current completion of 86 percent compared all units
launched for construction so far. Achieved sales rate was up
to 83 percent, meaning only 17 percent were still on the
market inventory. Despite a slight slowdown since late
2015, market absorption was relatively good within recent
years, and this trend still continues to grow well in the next
following year, given the overall favorable performance of
cluster landed housing market within the district.
The continued growth was thanks to housing market stimuli
(such as minimal or zero down payment schemes and other
very flexible installment options, to name a few) initiated
by developers across the capital’s housing market in the
midst of 2016, also helping bolster the demand and keep
the market growth from slowing down.
Regarding take-up rate, the majority of the finished housing
units are occupied, though relocation of residents to take up
the finished housing projects may take some time, about 3
to 6 years on average. Still, speculative purchases of hous-
ing units in primary market will still continue to leave some
of finished housing units empty due to slower secondary
demand than the rate of housing completion, especially in
2016 and onto 2017.
Because the district of Ruessei Kaev is immediately adja-
cent to the capital’s central business districts, it has now
become residential hubs, where residents can access to the
business centers easily and fast if compared to the far-west
districts of the capital. For a long perspective vision, the
trend of landed residential developments over there is fore-
seen to advance strongly until the coming decade, as infra-
structure, communities, and amenities such as AEOM Mall,
international schools, hospitals, and many other comple-
mentary services have already been positioned across the
key hubs, offering residents conveniences.
Some vacant parcels of land along some key streets of
Ruessei Kaev, namely St. 598, are under planning and
could be turned into residential towns in the foreseeable
future
Satellite view of cluster housing spots in Ruessei Kaev district. Note: Starred spots are indication of landed and borey housing clusters. Photo: Google Earth Imaging.
1.9 km
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Author Hoem Seiha (Mr.) Director of Research | VTrust Appraisal Co., Ltd. Tel: +855-23-220-098 | H/p: +855-12-699-553 Email: [email protected] Website: www.vtrustappraisal.com Advisory Research Committee Sim Hoy Chhoung | CEO | VTrust Appraisal Chrek Soknim | CEO | Century 21 Mekong In Sitha | Business Development | VTrust Appraisal Tarek Genena | Consultant | VTrust Appraisal Phin Sopthea |Valuation Manager| VTrust Appraisal
23 November, 2016 Volume 2, Issue 1
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Disclaimer VTrust Appraisal Co., Ltd. informs that the information, including figures, statistics and opinions, is one gained from resources deemed reliable and expressed solely by the authors of this publication but does not necessarily reflect the viewpoints of VTrust Appraisal Co., Ltd. Therefore, VTrust Appraisal does not guarantee or bear any responsibility for any failures pertaining to the information contained herein.
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