VTrans Update: Demographics TrendsDemographics Trends Nick Donohue, Director, Office of Intermodal...

1

VTrans Update:Demographics Trends

Nick Donohue, Director, Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment (OIPI)

John Miller, Ph.D., P.E., Virginia Transportation Research Council (VTRC)

Commonwealth Transportation Board Workshop

June 18, 2019

AGENDA

2

• VTrans Requirements

• Demographic Trends– Demographics Overview

– Population Trends

– Employment Trends

– Income Trends

VTRANS REQUIREMENTS

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• Key Requirements– Federal requirements per 23 U.S.C. 135 and other

– § 33.2-353: OIPI to assist the CTB in the development and update of a Statewide Transportation Plan.

– § 2.2-229: OIPI to assist the Commonwealth Transportation Board in the development of a comprehensive, multimodal transportation policy, which may be developed as part of the Statewide Transportation Plan pursuant to § 33.2-353.

• Several other business requirements

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/23/135

https://law.lis.virginia.gov/vacode/title33.2/chapter3/section33.2-353/

https://law.lis.virginia.gov/vacode/title2.2/chapter2/section2.2-229/

ON-GOING AND COMPLETED WORK

4

• Trends Analysis– Demographic and Land Use Trends (this presentation)

– Vulnerability Assessment – Flooding and Sea Level Rise (next presentation)

– Technology Trends

– Financial Trends

• Economic Profiles

• Mid-Term Needs Assessment (next presentation)

Text: Indicates tasks covered today

5

VTRANS TRENDS ANALYSIS : DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

Authors: Haritha Bhairavabhatla, Amy O’Leary, Maddison Gasse, and John Miller

DEMOGRAPHICS OVERVIEW

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• Geographies: Statewide, CTB Construction Districts and modified PDCs

• Population, employment, and income trends

• Major data sources:– Forecast population: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

– Forecast employment: Woods & Poole

– Forecast income: Moody’s Analytics

WHY PDCS AND DISTRICTS?

7

• In 1980, the population for year 2000 was forecast. How accurate was the forecast?

• Average percent error:

– By zone: 39%

– By region: 10%

Source: McCray et al. Improving Socioeconomic Land Use Forecastingfor Medium-Sized Metropolitan Planning Organizations in Virginia, 2009.

UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTS IS ACKNOWLEDGED IN VIRGINIA

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2045 Population Forecast for Arlington County + Alexandria City

UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTS IS ACKNOWLEDGED ELSEWHERE

9

Variable Entity 2017-2040

Population

Population (Washington D.C.)

D.C. Office of Planning 49%

MWCOG 28%

Employment (Washington D.C.)

D.C. Office of Planning 28%

MWCOG 25%

Source: Calculated from data provided in Move DC: The District of Columbia’s Multimodal Long-Range Transportation Plan, 2014

Note: MWCOG – Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

IMPLICATION FOR TRANSPORTATION

10

2017-2045

employment:

5% to 19%

forecast growth

Source: Woods & Poole (19% figure) and IHS Markit (5%) figure

10

11

VTRANS TRENDS ANALYSIS: POPULATION TRENDS

HISTORICAL POPULATION CHANGE BY DISTRICT – 2000-2017

12Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Statewide Population Change: 19.6%

HISTORICAL POPULATION CHANGE BY PDC – 2000-2017

13

Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Statewide Population Change: 19.6%

HISTORICAL POPULATION BY DISTRICT

14Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and the U.S. Census Bureau.

(By District)• The Hampton Roads

and Northern Virginia construction districts account for about 50% of Virginia’s total population

FORECAST POPULATION CHANGE BY DISTRICT – 2017-2045

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Statewide Population Change: 24%

Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Serviceand the U.S. Census Bureau.

FORECAST POPULATION CHANGE BY PDC – 2017-2045

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Statewide Population Change: 24%


AGE DISTRIBUTION - STATEWIDE

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• For 2017 to 2045– Persons age 65+ are forecast to increase 56% (to 1.99 million)

– Persons age 75+ are forecast to increase 104% (to 1.05 million)


AGE DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT

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POPULATION FORECAST CHANGE AGED 75+ – 2017-2045

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Statewide Population Change Aged 75+: 104%


IMPLICATION FOR TRANSPORTATION

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• Transportation Needs of Persons Age 65+– Currently account for a smaller proportion of population in urban areas, yet

urban areas may see a larger relative increase out to 2045

– Percent adults who drive:

o 88% (at age 65)

o 69% (at age 75)

• Virginia’s border states recognize this need. Examples: – Tennessee is emphasizing roadway design elements for this population

– North Carolina notes aging in place trends and needs for paratransit

Sources: DeGood (2011), Weldon Cooper for Public Service, Tennessee Department of Transportation (2045), Atkins (2011)

District 2017 Age 65+ 2045 Age 65+

Hampton Roads 14% 19%

Lynchburg 20% 22%

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VTRANS TRENDS ANALYSIS: EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT – STATE

22

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

1975 2000 2017

Source: Aggregated from figures reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (2018b).

• Employment growth slowed after 2000.

• Before 2000: 3.3%

• After 2000: 0.6%

HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT BY DISTRICT

23

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1975 2000 2017

Source: Aggregated from figures reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (2018b).

HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY DISTRICT – 2000-2017

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Statewide Employment Change: 11%

Source: Data provided by Bureau of Labor Statistics (2018b).

HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY PDC – 2000-2017

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Source: Data provided by Bureau of Labor Statistics (2018b).

HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT- KEY TAKEAWAYS

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• Since 1975, employment has become more concentrated in fewer PDCs (as has population)

• Share of statewide employment for the Northern Virginia and George Washington PDCs grew from 21% (in 1975) to 36% (in 2017)

• Almost half of PDCs saw employment drop (2000-2017) compared to none (1975-2000)

FORECAST EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY DISTRICT – 2017-2045

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Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.

FORECAST EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY PDC – 2017-2045

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HOW DO THESE FORECASTS ACCOUNT FOR THE UNEXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A

LARGE EMPLOYER?

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• Example: Amazon HQ2 comes. What happens to our forecasts?

Employment Growth

2017-2045

Without

Amazon

With

Amazon

Local (Arlington County) 17.6% 44.4%

PDC Level (Northern Virginia) 56.4% 61.8%

Population Growth

2017-2045

Without

Amazon

With

Amazon

Local (Arlington County) 16.2% 24.2%

PDC Level (Northern Virginia) 41.8% 50.7%

Source: Local changes from Fuller and Chapman (2018). PDC level data from Woods & Poole.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: STATEWIDE EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Em

plo

ym

en

t (t

ho

usa

nd

s)

Virginia 2000 Virginia 2017 Virginia 2045Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.

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FORECAST EMPLOYMENT- KEY TAKEAWAYS

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• Employment concentration grows: PDCs of Northern Virginia and George Washington had 21% of Virginia jobs (1975) yet may have 41% of jobs in the future (2045)

• For new jobs being created 2017-2045:– Three PDCs account for 75% (Hampton Roads, Northern Virginia, Richmond Regional)

– Six PDCs account for 85% (Three above plus George Washington, Roanoke Valley, Central Shenandoah)

• Job growth 2017-2045 uneven by sector:– Health care and social assistance: 90%

– Professional and technical services employment: 61%

– Manufacturing: - 6%

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VTRANS TRENDS ANALYSIS: INCOME TRENDS

HISTORICAL/FORECAST MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME – STATE

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(All in 2009 $)

2000 2017 2045

$61,502 $68,351 $85,741

Source: Data provided by Moody’s Analytics.

2017 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME

34Source: Data provided by Moody’s Analytics.

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME CHANGE BY DISTRICT – 2000-2017

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Statewide Median Household Income Change: 11%

2000 - $61,502 2017- $68,351


FORECAST MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME CHANGE BY DISTRICT – 2017-2045

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2017- $68,3512045 - $85,741


MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME CHANGE BY PDC – 2000-2017

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2000 - $61,502 2017- $68,351


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2017- $68,3512045 - $85,741

FORECAST MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME CHANGE BY PDC – 2017-2045


MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME- KEY TAKEAWAYS

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• Median household income (in 2017) varies by more than a factor of three among PDCs, from $30,356 (Lenowisco) to $104,225 (Northern Virginia).

• Median household income (in constant 2009 dollars) is forecast to grow, between 2017 and 2045, by 25%.

• Larger percentage increases in income are forecast for some districts and PDCs with lower 2017 median incomes.

• Presently, 18 of 21 PDCs have incomes below the statewide average

IMPLICATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION

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• Implication 1. Historically, higher incomes have been associated with increased demand for travel.– Example: In the past, VMT increases were associated with income increases.

– Caveat: This linkage may be diminishing, but affected by several factors

• Implication 2. Certain occupations presently have longer commute times than other occupations. Examples:– Educational services employment: 23.1 minutes

– Professional and technical services employment: 29.3 minutes

Sources: Kopf, D. Which Professions Have the Longest Commutes?, Woods and Poole, Memmott, J. Trends in Personal Income and Passenger Vehicle Miles

ECONOMIC-TRANSPORTATION LINKAGES | INDUSTRY CLUSTERS

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ECONOMIC-TRANSPORTATION LINKAGES | INDUSTRY CLUSTERS

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Kn

ow

led

ge-B

ased • Mixed-use

development

• Walking between destinations

• Traditional peak commute times

• Airport access

Loca

l Ser

vin

g • Different peak commute times

• Customer traffic

• Trip-chaining destinations

• Truck deliveries

Frei

ght

Dep

end

ent • Shift hours

• Truck origins and destinations

• Rail, port and/or airport access

• Remote locations

Different industry clusters have different Needs, Opportunities and Constraints for efficient transportation

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: EXAMPLE PDC EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY

Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole

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Local Serving Freight Dependent Knowledge-Based

No

rth

ern

Vir

gin

ia

36%

56%

8%

2000A

cco

mac

k-N

ort

ham

pto

n

14%

54%

31%13%

57%

30%

10%

58%

31%

37%

54%

9%

31%

60%

10%

2017

25%

64%

11%

2045

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VTRANS DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDSADDITIONAL DATA – DEMOGRAPHIC DATA BY CONSTRUCTION DISTRICT

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Bristol District

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT

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Bristol District

UNDER 20 20-64 YEARS 65 & OVER

25%

25%

27%

21%

21%

24%

56%

60%

62%

54%

58%

61%

19%

15%

11%

25%

21%

15%

2045

2017

2000

2045

2017

2000

Stat

ew

ide

Bri

sto

l

Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Emp

loym

ent

(th

ou

san

ds)

Bristol 2000 Bristol 2017 Bristol 2045

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY

47Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.


48


Bristol

29%

62%

9%

2017

37%

55%

8%

2000

27%

64%

10%

2045


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Salem District


50

Salem District


25%

25%

27%

23%

23%

25%

56%

60%

62%

54%

58%

60%

19%

15%

11%

23%

19%

15%

2045

2017

2000

2045

2017

2000

Stat

ew

ide

Sale

m


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Emp

loym

ent

(th

ou

san

ds)

Salem 2000 Salem 2017 Salem 2045




52


Salem

34%

54%

12%

2000

26%

61%

13%

2017

22%

65%

13%

2045


53

Lynchburg District


54

Lynchburg District


25%

25%

27%

24%

23%

26%

56%

60%

62%

54%

57%

58%

19%

15%

11%

22%

20%

16%

2045

2017

2000

2045

2017

2000

Stat

ew

ide

Lyn

chb

urg


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Emp

loym

ent

(th

ou

san

ds)

Lynchburg 2000 Lynchburg 2017 Lynchburg 2045




56


Lynchburg

37%

54%

8%

2000

27%

63%

11%

2017

22%

65%

13%

2045


57

Richmond District


58

Richmond District


25%

25%

27%

24%

24%

28%

56%

60%

62%

56%

60%

61%

19%

15%

11%

19%

15%

12%

2045

2017

2000

2045

2017

2000

Stat

ew

ide

Ric

hm

on

d


0

50

100

150

200

250

Emp

loym

ent

(th

ou

san

ds)

Richmond 2000 Richmond 2017 Richmond 2045




60


Richmond

23%

59%

17%

2000

18%

64%

18%

2017

15%

67%

18%

2045


61

Hampton Roads District


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Hampton Roads District


25%

25%

27%

24%

25%

29%

56%

60%

62%

56%

61%

60%

19%

15%

11%

19%

14%

11%

2045

2017

2000

2045

2017

2000

Stat

ew

ide

Ham

pto

n R

oad

s


0

50

100

150

200

250

Emp

loym

ent

(th

ou

san

ds)

Hampton Roads 2000 Hampton Roads 2017 Hampton Roads 2045




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Hampton Roads

20%

66%

14%

2000

16%

70%

14%

2017

14%

73%

13%

2045


65

Fredericksburg District


66

Fredericksburg District


25%

25%

27%

26%

26%

29%

56%

60%

62%

54%

59%

59%

19%

15%

11%

20%

16%

12%

2045

2017

2000

2045

2017

2000

Stat

ew

ide

Fre

de

rick

sbu

rg


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Emp

loym

ent

(th

ou

san

ds)

Fredericksburg 2000 Fredericksburg 2017 Fredericksburg 2045




68


Fredericksburg

23%

63%

13%

2000

18%

69%

13%

2017

14%

73%

13%

2045


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Culpeper District


70

Culpeper District


25%

25%

27%

24%

24%

27%

56%

60%

62%

54%

59%

61%

19%

15%

11%

21%

17%

12%

2045

2017

2000

2045

2017

2000

Stat

ew

ide

Cu

lpe

pe

r


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Emp

loym

ent

(th

ou

san

ds)

Culpeper 2000 Culpeper 2017 Culpeper 2045




72


Culpeper

24%

62%

14%

2000

18%

66%

16%

2017

15%

68%

17%

2045


73

Staunton District


74

Staunton District


25%

25%

27%

25%

24%

26%

56%

60%

62%

54%

58%

60%

19%

15%

11%

22%

18%

14%

2045

2017

2000

2045

2017

2000

Stat

ew

ide

Stau

nto

n


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Emp

loym

ent

(th

ou

san

ds)

Staunton 2000 Staunton 2017 Staunton 2045




76


Staunton

38%

53%

9%

2000

29%

61%

10%

2017

23%

66%

11%

2045


77

Northern Virginia District


78

Northern Virginia District


25%

25%

27%

26%

26%

27%

56%

60%

62%

59%

62%

65%

19%

15%

11%

15%

11%

7%

2045

2017

2000

2045

2017

2000

Stat

ew

ide

No

rth

ern

Vir

gin

ia


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Emp

loym

ent

(th

ou

san

ds)

Northern Virginia 2000 Northern Virginia 2017 Northern Virginia 2045




80


Northern Virginia

14%

54%

31%

2000

13%

57%

30%

2017

10%

58%

31%

2045


81

Statewide


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Em

plo

ym

en

t (t

ho

usa

nd

s)

Virginia 2000 Virginia 2017 Virginia 2045



83


Statewide

23%

58%

19% 18%

63%

19% 15%

65%

20%


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