VRE Gainesville- Haymarket Extension (GHX) Study … · VRE Gainesville-Haymarket Extension (GHX)...
25
1 VRE Gainesville- Haymarket Extension (GHX) Study Community Meeting December 7, 2016
Transcript of VRE Gainesville- Haymarket Extension (GHX) Study … · VRE Gainesville-Haymarket Extension (GHX)...
1
VRE Gainesville-Haymarket
Extension (GHX)Study
Community Meeting
December 7, 2016
22
Agenda
1. Project Overview
2. Alternatives Considered
3. Comparison of Alternatives
4. Next Steps
33
Project Goals1. Add capacity to the I-66
corridor
2. Accommodate current and future freight operations
3. Provide cost-effective and reliable mobility options
4. Enhance service on existing line for current and future riders
5. Support local and regional economic development and plans
44
Project Overview
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
Contingent upon Norfolk Southern approval and funding availability.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Final Design
Construction
StartUp
Pro
ject
Act
ivit
ies
2023 2024
Planning
Environmental
Preliminary Design
Current Study
REVENUE SERVICEPROJECT IMPLEMENTATIONPROJECT DEVELOPMENT
Pro
ject
Pha
se
Schedule as of June 2016
We are here
Schedule as of November 2016
55
Selecting a Preferred Alternative
JUL2015
DEC2016
JUL2016
OCT2016
JAN2017
Mid-2017
Fall2017
Fall2017
Initiate Alternatives
Analysis
Evaluate Wide Range
Initial Alternatives
Evaluate Refined
Alternatives
VRE Ops Board Recommends
NEPA Alternative(s)for Add’l Study
Initiate NEPA
Publish Draft EARecommend Draft Locally
Preferred Alternative (LPA)
Publish FONSIRecommend
Final LPA
VRE Ops Board
Adopts LPA
Alternatives Analysis Environmental Review (NEPA) Design
66
July 2015 - December 2016 • 42 Individual and Organizational
Briefings• 23 Project Meetings and Event
Attendance• 17 Board Presentations and Other
Public Meetings
Study Outreach
77
Land Use and Economic Development Benefits
113%
229%
43% 41%
-5%
17%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Population Employment
Perc
ent G
row
th
1990 – 2014 1990 – 2014
Tract Adjacent to Station Station Study Area Broader Area
Source: LHB Communications, Inc.
VRE station can support local land use and economic development plans and policies:
• Target population and employment activity centers
• Encourage greater tax revenues
• Minimize sprawl and conserve open space
Lorton Station
88
Ridership and Mobility Benefits
• VRE Manassas Line service is an important alternative to I-66 and US 50/29 for east-west regional travel
• VRE provides a more reliable commute time, even with I-66 improvements
Although I-66 Express Lanes and transit/TDM improvements will reduce congestion, travelers will still need alternative travel choices
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Pers
ons
Per
Hou
r
General Purpose Lanes Express/HOVBus MetrorailVRE
I-66 Segment
Person Throughput by Travel Mode(I-66 Eastbound AM Peak Hour, 2040)
Note: Graphic adapted from Transform 66 Outside the Beltway, Tier 2 Final Environmental Assessment, 6/21/2016.
99
Alternatives Analysis Process
Recommended Alternatives for Environmental Review
Evaluation of Refined Alternatives
Screening of Initial Alternatives
Refined Alternative
RefinedAlternative
Service Plan Station Location
Alignment/Route
Equipment Storage Facility
We are here
1010
Service Plan Evaluation Process
Market Assessment Initial Alternatives Refined Alternatives Recommended Service Plan
Fall 2015 Spring 2015 Fall 2016 Winter 2016
• Potential for long-term ridership
• Broad range of service frequencies
• Ridership forecasts
• 20 minute peak frequency (22 trains)
• Multiple terminus locations
• Refined ridership forecasts
• Cost effectiveness
• Transparency with freight trains
• Grow ridership to sustain VRE operations
10
1111
Existing Service(16 trains per day)
Enhanced Service Options: 6 additional daily trains (22 Trains Per Day)
Allowed under current railroad operating agreements
Broad Run Terminus
• Relocates Broad Run station• Expands existing yard
Extension to Innovation
• Realigns Manassas Line to Innovation terminus
• Eliminates Broad Run station• New end-of-line yard
Extension to Gainesville2 stations
• Realigns Manassas Line to Gainesville-Prince William Station terminus
• Eliminates Broad Run station• New end-of-line yard
Extension to Gainesville3 stations
• Realigns Manassas Line to Gainesville-US 29 terminus
• Eliminates Broad Run station• New end-of-line yard
Extension to Haymarket
• Realigns Manassas Line to Haymarket terminus
• Eliminates Broad Run station• New end-of-line yard
Refined Alternatives: Service Plans
11
1212
Track Arrangement
• Norfolk Southern B-Line (Existing single track)
• Additional tracks needed for transparency of VRE operations
1313
Station and Yard Evaluation Process
Site Identification Initial Screening Initial Site Planning + Detailed Evaluation
Recommended Site Locations
Fall 2015 Spring 2015 Fall 2016 Winter 2016
• Community input
• Stakeholder input
• Previous studies
• Site suitability
• Screen sites that ‘don’t work’
• Develop initial site plans
• Detailed site evaluation
• End-of-line yard sites
• Transparency with freight trains
• Minimize impacts
13
1414
Potential Station and Yard Sites
1515
Ridership ForecastsD
aily
Rid
ersh
ip
Source: VRE/MWCOG Travel Demand Model, results as of 9/26/16
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Existing Service(16 trains)
Broad RunTerminus(22 trains)
InnovationTerminus(22 trains)
GainesvilleTerminus2 stations(22 trains)
GainesvilleTerminus3 stations(22 trains)
HaymarketTerminus(22 trains)
GHX Stations (2040) Manassas Line (2015) Manassas Line (2040)
16,46016,34016,10015,82015,350
10,220
1616
Distribution of Riders
Broad Run Terminus, Relocated Station (2040) Haymarket Terminus (2040)
Proposed VRE Line
Warrenton Warrenton
1717
Capital Cost
Stations
Track and ROW
Vehicles
Yard
Mill
ions
(201
6 $)
Broad Run Terminus
Innovation Terminus
Gainesville (2 stations)
Terminus
Gainesville (3 stations)
Terminus
Haymarket Terminus
$345 M
$580 to$630M
$570 to$615M
$590 to$630M
$610 to$660M
1818
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
Existing Service Broad Run Innovation Gainesville 2 Gainesville 3 Haymarket
Annual Operating Cost
$36 M $37 M$40 M $40 M
$45 M
Mill
ions
(201
6 $)
Broad Run Terminus
Innovation Terminus
Gainesville (2 stations)
Terminus
Gainesville (3 stations)
Terminus
Haymarket Terminus
Existing Service
$29 M
1919
Cost Effectiveness
1. Projections based on VRE Travel Demand Model 2015; MWCOG Round 8.4 Cooperative Land Use Forecasts, 9/26/16
2. Operating costs based on VRE FY15 average cost per train mile3. Annualized capital costs based on FTA useful life estimates and assume 251 service days/year4. No additional capital investments assumed for Broad Run station/yard complex.
Existing Service
Broad Run Terminus
InnovationTerminus
Gainesville TerminusHaymarketTerminus
2 stations 3 stations
Revenue Trains 16 22 22 22 22 22
Daily Riders (2040) 1 10,220 15,350 15,820 16,100 16,340 16,460
Cost Per Rider
Operating Cost Per Rider ($) 2 $11.31 $9.34 $9.23 $9.98 $9.83 $10.89
Capital Cost Per Rider ($) 3 NA 4 $3.03 $5.44 $5.53 $5.51 $5.80
Total Cost Per Rider ($) $11.31 $12.37 $14.66 $15.51 $15.35 $16.69
2020
Capital Funding Sources
• Initial funding plan assumption: Federal grant for 50% of capital cost of an extension– No extension alternative is
competitive for Federal New Starts funding
– A Broad Run extension could potentially compete for a Federal Core Capacity funding
Mix of State, Regional, and
Local 50%
Federal Capital Investment
Grant
50%
2121
• Minimum 50% fare revenue• Operating subsidy paid by VRE
jurisdictions, percentage based on ridership
• Additional revenue source required for future operations and any expansion project
• Mix of state/local/new operating revenue for GHX or other VRE expansion TBD
State Funding
Fare Revenue
Operating Funding Sources
VRE Member Jurisdictions
Future Dedicated Source
2222
Timeline for Decision-making
JUL2015
DEC2016
JUL2016
OCT2016
JAN2017
Mid-2017
Fall2017
Fall2017
Initiate Alternatives
Analysis
Evaluate Wide Range
Initial Alternatives
Evaluate Refined
Alternatives
VRE Ops Board Recommends
NEPA Alternative(s)for Add’l Study
Initiate NEPA
Publish Draft EARecommend Draft Locally
Preferred Alternative (LPA)
Publish FONSIRecommend
Final LPA
VRE Ops Board
Adopts LPA
Alternatives Analysis Environmental Review (NEPA) Design
2323
Next Steps: Upcoming Meetings
• December 13th, Prince William Board of County Supervisors Meeting
– 2:00 pm (Board Chamber, One County Complex Court)
• December 16th , VRE Operations Board Meeting
– 9:00 am (PRTC headquarters, 14700 Potomac Mills Road, Woodbridge)
– VRE Operations Board will recommend alternative(s) to advance into next phase of study
2525
QuestionsQuestions
