Voting and Elections 3 November, 2008. What’s at Stake Presidency House of Representatives All 435...
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Transcript of Voting and Elections 3 November, 2008. What’s at Stake Presidency House of Representatives All 435...
What’s at Stake Presidency House of Representatives
All 435 seats Democrats currently have a 15 seat majority (233 seats) and
could increase their majority by 20-30 seats. U.S. Senate
35 seats in the U.S. Senate Democrats currently have a 1 seat majority 23 of the contested seats are held by Republicans. Democrats need to pick up 9 seats to stop filibuster
Governors’ Races 11 states
State legislative races Statewide ballot measures
Options for Electing the President Congress chooses the president State legislatures choose the president President elected by popular vote Electoral College
How it works Each state was allocated a number of Electors equal to the
number of U.S. Senators (always 2) plus the number of U.S. Representatives (which changes)
The manner of choosing the electors was left to the individual state legislators. By 1836 all states (except for South Carolina) choose electors by popular vote (plurality rules).
The candidate with a majority of electoral votes is elected president
In the event that no candidate wins a majority, the U.S. House of Representatives would choose from the top five contenders. Each state could cast only one vote. An absolute majority is required
The 2004 Presidential ElectionBush 286 EV (51%)/ Kerry 252 EV (48%)270 EV needed to win
A change in Ohio (with 20 electoral votes) would have given Kerry the presidency even though Bush would have received a majority of the popular vote
The Tracking Polls as of November 3 Obama 51, McCain 44 (DemCorps 10/30=11/2) Obama 51, McCain 43 (NBCWSJ 11/1-2) Obama 52, McCain 42 (Gallup 10/31-11/2) Obama 54, McCain 41 (CBS 10/30-11/1) Obama 54, McCain 43 (ABCPost 10/29-11/1)
Will Obama have coattails? Typically about 90 percent of House incumbents are
reelected In the Senate, 78.6 percent have won reelection in the
postwar period Even in years very unfavourable to one of the parties, a
large majority win. In 1994, the Democrats worst year since 1946, 84 percent won. In 2006, 87 percent of the Republican incumbents in the House were returned to office.
Congressional Races to Watch Open seats (where no incumbent is running) are typically
the most competitive U.S. Senate (5 seats all held by Republicans); Virginia, New
Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska, Idaho, U.S. House (32 seats); 26 held by Republicans. However,
many of those retiring represent safe Republican districts.
Senate Races to Watch Nevertheless, of the 23 Republican Senate seats, 7 are
competitive; 1 is a tossup (Minnesota); and 3 are leaning Republican (Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi)
Only 1 Democratic seat (Louisiana is competitive) See Map of Senate Races
The Florida Disaster Florida recount (link to Univ. of Chicago study) The punch card voting system Design of the palm beach ballot
Voter Turnout U.S. turnout in comparative perspective Lower for congressional elections than Presidential
elections Decline in voter turnout How low is it? Does it matter? The role of age and education
Voting is the most common form of political participation Many people also talk about politics and try to persuade
others to vote Very few participate in any other specific way.
The U.S. in Comparative Perspective
Source: Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), Module 2, 2004
Why is voter turnout so low? Electoral system Voter attitudes Lack of convenience Difficulty of registration