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- Insights ▷ April 2019

Afghanistan – A way forwardUpendra Baghel visited Synergia Foundation to discuss India’s need for an independent and inclusive Afghanistan Policy. Mr.

Do Better with Less: Frugal Innovation to Sustainable Growth The Synergia Foundation hosted a Harvard Business School Club of India conversation with Prof. Jaideep Prabhu and Navi Radjou on April 16, 2019. Also in attendance were Sajju Jain - Founder of Impact+Efficacy; Harsha Mutt - Mentor at NSRCEL at IIM Bangalore; Bhanu Prasad - Impact Innovation Coach at TCS Foundation; Ajay Nanavati - Chairman of Syndicate Bank; Venu Madhav - CEO of Cafe

Israel’s elections: A turning pointThe forthcoming Israeli general elections on April 9th will be the most vied for, equivocating and possibly pivotal in the country’s

Iran’s IRGC-A terrorist organization?The US intends to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization - a move that has

Brexit deadline extended to OctoberFrustrated European leaders have abandoned hope that Britain

India’s ASW readinessChina has stepped up its activity in the Indian Ocean while maintaining a sizeable numbers advantage to India’s submarines. Can India adapt its surface technologies to thwart sub-surface threats?

Kim Jong-un in RussiaNorth Korean leader Kim Jong-un will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the first trip aimed at galvanising support, while talks with Washington are in limbo.

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VOLUME 151

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- Insights ▷April 2019

Upendra Baghel visited Synergia Foundation to discuss India’s need for an independent and inclusive Afghanistan Policy. Mr. Baghel recently served as the Head of the Policy Advisory Unit of the United Nations Assistance Mission Afghanistan (UNAMA) and has also been an investigator for the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) (2000-2015).

Afghanistan – A way forward

The Synergia Foundation hosted a Harvard Business School Club of India conversation with Prof. Jaideep Prabhu and Navi Radjou on April 16, 2019. Also in attendance were Sajju Jain - Founder of Impact+Efficacy; Harsha Mutt - Mentor at NSRCEL at IIM Bangalore; Bhanu Prasad - Impact Innovation Coach at TCS Foundation; Ajay Nanavati - Chairman of Syndicate Bank; Venu Madhav - CEO of Cafe Coffee Day; Prabhakar C - Director of Gopalan Enterprises; Soumitra Sharma - Head of Corporate and Business Development at Achira Labs; Harish HV - Partner, Indian Leadership Team at Grant Thornton and Rajesh Naik IFS - Ministry of External Affairs. The objective was to discuss how India could take advantage of its ability to innovate products in a simple, affordable and accessible manner by augmenting it with the aspirational attributes of quality, desirability and sustainability.

Background

The roundtable was chaired by Prof. Jaideep Prabhu, Jawaharlal Nehru Professor of Business and Enterprise at the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge and Navi Radjou, Silicon Valley innovation, leadership strategist and Fellow at Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. They co-authored "Jugaad Innovation: Think Frugal, Be Flexible, Generate Breakthrough Growth", and are currently promoting their upcoming book "Frugal Innovation: How to do More with Less".

Analysis

The co-authors used the term Jugaad (hack; a flexible approach to problem-solving that uses limited resources in an innovative way) to characterise the nature of Indian innovation. This resilient, frugal and socially inclusive ability of India has recently become the focus of Western markets driven by the quest for sustainability. Sustainability has led to a new breed of consumers - “the prosumer” - who are actively involved in the economic process through a sharing economy, that is socially conscious, and a makers market (Do-It-Yourself). Using examples such as the Raspberry Pi customisable computer system, the co-authors touted the benefits of frugal innovation that permits the producer and consumer to interact locally, while networking globally.

The co-authors present six principles of frugal innovation that any organisation can adapt in order to gain from the sustainable, socially conscious technologies created by the start-up culture. As explicated in their upcoming book, the following principles work together to create a circular economy in which innovation is fostered:- ‘Engage and iterate’ - allowing larger companies to mimic what startups

Do Better with Less: Frugal Innovation to Sustainable Growth

do; 'Flex your assets’ - permitting larger companies to be flexible while utilising their resources; ‘Create sustainable solutions’ aimed at long-term changes; ‘Shape consumer behaviour’ in order to effect the most profound long-term changes; ‘Co-create value with producers’ to boost employee morale and productivity; ‘Make innovative friends’ that cultivate a home-grown culture.

The experts at the roundtable opined that the greatest challenge to adapting the model to India lies in the last-mile scalability of innovations to the consumer. Here, the experts believed it is vital to continuously improve existing solutions to problems, instead of counting excessively on a ‘Eureka’ moment. Also of concern for India is the lack of skill-sets within the Indian labour market; the experts believe that developing a talent pool with a complementary skill-sets is essential in building the national ecosystem. Finally, the roundtable discussed a critical ecosystem differentiator between India and the West; the ability of universities to facilitate innovation in the West. In India, the experts proposed, academic architecture is not conducive to innovation despite the evident hunger of its students. Instead, that job has largely been the government’s, and because of its failure (save for exceptional cases like ISRO and BAARC), it has, in turn, fallen on the private sector.

Assessment

Our assessment is that India, as pioneers in frugal innovation, presents a tremendous opportunity in building a world in line with the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals; India’s capacity to become sustainable accounts for 50% the total outcome of the goals. However, we believe that in order to capitalise on this potential, the products of India’s innovation needs to inculcate aspirational attributes of quality, desirability and sustainability. In terms of business opportunities in India, it is important to remember the plethora of stakeholders in building a scalable business model; the ability to draw upon grassroots efforts while developing complementary labour skillsets is vital in cultivating India’s innovation ecosystem. Given the rudimentary position of India’s education institutions in facilitating innovation, we believe it falls upon the private sector to foster such transformation.

Synergia Intervention

At Synergia, we have successfully patented an innovative platform in nanotechnology targeted towards a cure of diseases related to the central nervous system. Our pragmatic approach enables us to deliver sustainable economics by reverse engineering and retrofitting existing molecules to provide additional benefits to both the community and the patients. Our translational model involves working with the best of the three worlds- the US for its fundamental research; Europe for its applied research; Asia, for its affordable drug development capacity.

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- Insights ▷ April 2019

The US intends to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization - a move that has been condemned by Tehran.

Background

Iran's most powerful security organisation, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was set up to protect the country's clerical ruling system after its 1979 Islamic Revolution, which toppled the Western-allied secular monarch Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. IRGC is in charge of Iran's ballistic missiles and nuclear programmes, and answers directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It is estimated to have 125,000 personnel, comprising of army, navy and air units. The IRGC became heavily involved in reconstruction and has expanded its economic interests to include a vast network of businesses, ranging from oil and gas projects to construction and telecommunication.

Analysis

The Trump administration is expected to designate Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization. This decision, formally made under the State Department's purview, is taking on heightened importance as part of the White House's increasingly aggressive strategy towards Iran. It will mark the first time the US has designated a branch of the armed forces of a foreign government, as a terrorist group. Officials informed of the step said an announcement was expected after months-long escalation in the administration’s rhetoric against Iran, its support for militia groups in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, as well as anti-Israel groups in the region and beyond.

Defence officials have said that US troops in Syria and Iraq often find themselves operating in close proximity to members of the IRGC. "Under the cover of the Syrian war, the IRGC is now trying to plant military roots in Syria and establish a new strategic base to threaten Syria's neighbors such as Israel," Brian Hook, the State Department's special representative for Iran. IRGC Chief Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari said that in case the U.S. takes such a step, its forces in western Asia “will lose peace and quiet”. Although Jafari has not said what sort of threat the U.S. military will face, one option that Iran has is to target American forces based in Iraq. Aside from Iraq, where some 5,200 American troops are stationed; and Syria, where some U.S. 2,000 troops remain, the U.S. 5th Fleet, which operates in the Persian Gulf from its base in Bahrain, and the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, are also potentially at risk.

The Guards' prized unit is the Quds Force supports forces allied with Iran around the region - including Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In Lebanon, the designation could further restrict U.S. officials on who they can interact with. The Guard has close ties to Hezbollah, which is part of the Lebanese government. The Hezbollah is an already designated foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. Its presence in Lebanon’s parliament and the executive branch have forced the U.S. to avoid any contact with Hezbollah members even as the U.S. continues to provide assistance to, and works with the Lebanese army.

Assessment

Our assessment is that IRGC is a state actor. The Iranian cabinet is composed of former IRGC officers while several others have been appointed to provincial governorships. It can be noted that the IRGC affiliates control an array of commercial enterprises, including large mines, primary industries (including downstream oil and gas), foreign commerce, banks, insurance, power industries, postal networks, roads, railroads, airlines, and shipping. Designating IRGC as a terrorist organization will isolate it and deter donations which is an added strain to the already sanctioned economy of Iran. Also, Iraqi Shiite militias close to the IRGC are essentially the hosts and protectors of the 5,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. We feel that this escalation will mean US troops and diplomats could be barred from contact with Iraqi or Lebanese authorities who interact with Guard officials or surrogates.

Iran’s IRGC – A terrorist organization?

Background

Upendra Baghel is a senior Indian Police Service officer who has served with the United Nations Assistance Mission Afghanistan (UNAMA) since December 2016. He was previously an investigator with the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) as well as Deputy Commissioner of Police/ Superintended of Police, Government of Karnataka from 1991 to 2000. Additionally, he was deputed to various UN missions during his tenure as Deputy Commissioner, including the United Nations Angola Verification Mission II (UNAVEM II) (1995-1996) and the United Nations Mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina (UNMIBH) (1997-1998). He was part of the investigations team which coordinated with the prosecutor’s office for the tribunal to gather evidence for the crimes committed in Rwanda back in 1994. Mr. Baghel described in detail the proceedings of the investigations, the role of an investigator in the tribunal and the manner in which leading political figures were convicted by the court based on the principle of association.

Analysis

The discussion was primarily focused on better understanding the present situation in Afghanistan, where Mr. Baghel is serving as the Head of the Policy Advisory Unit for the UN. During his tenure, Mr. Baghel has provided invaluable insights on police reforms, accountability and responsibility mechanisms as well as effective training for personnel. India’s Afghanistan policy was the key point of Mr. Baghel’s deliberations. He stressed on the need for India to construct an independent, proactive policy towards Afghanistan. One such instance, he highlighted, was capacity building exercises with Kabul. He stressed on the cultural, religious and historical links between India and Afghanistan that needs to be strengthened. Citing the example of Afghan students studying in India, he reiterated the importance of imparting India’s secular, democratic and republican values on the students as a way of cementing a prosperous Indo-Afghan relation in the future.

The most impactful statement made was with regards to Afghanistan’s future. Referring to the ongoing US-Afghanistan-Taliban talks, he asserted that the future of Afghanistan will not be decided by the US, India or Pakistan, but by the people of the country. If a third-party country were to intervene and impose their version of the rule of law, it would surely fail. Therefore, Afghanistan should decide it's future. Regarding India’s role, it is essential for the Ministry of External Affairs to formulate an active policy which goes beyond the regular day to day diplomatic services. India cannot and should not replace the US as the largest financier for development.

There is a need to engage with the Afghani press and the public, particularly for Indian scholars and think tanks, as they are open for having conversations which enrich their understanding of democracy, economy and even politics. Mr. Baghel’s articles have been published regularly in Afghanistan times, and they usually cover topics related to police reforms and security issues in and around Kabul. Another hidden insight was the lack of engagement with the Taliban. India has not communicated with the Taliban, despite their growing influence as well as their changing perspectives of democracy.

Assessment

Our assessment is that Mr. Baghel’s experience in Bosnia, Angola, Tanzania, Rwanda and Afghanistan provides him with a unique perspective on common police reform and domestic security issues which plague most of South Asia. We believe that the suggestions are largely based on realities that exist on the ground and it would be wise to test these premises.

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- Insights ▷April 2019

Israel’s elections: A turning point

Gantz, has campaigned on the need to halt the polarisation, a social condition he primarily attributes to the right; he criticizes their attacks on the supreme court and charges them with undermining the rule of the law. He has focused especially on Mr. Netanyahu’s looming indictment for corruption that Mr. Gantz believes, makes him unfit to lead the country. On the contrary, Mr. Gantz promises a statist government (memshala mamlachtit) which would represent the interest of all citizens, uphold the rule of law, stop the attacks on democratic institutions and even alter the most disputed law of the last legislative period, the so-called Nation-State Law. Netanyahu, on the other hand, focuses primarily on his foreign policy successes and security credentials. His close relationship with US President Donald Trump is highlighted frequently – the recognition of the Golan heights needs to be seen as a campaign gift by Trump. Netanyahu stresses that only he and a right-wing government will be able to defend the security and Jewish identity of the state while a left-wing government would lead to terror attacks and an endangerment to the Jewishness of the state.

What is more important is the development within the right-wing camp beyond Netanyahu, who is – his populism aside – by many accounts one of the more moderate political figures in the right. The right-wing camp sees a further shift to the right on two levels. The first is the strengthening of the far-right instead of one party "the Jewish Home" representing this political segment. These elections see three parties with serious chances of passing the electoral threshold; the new right, the Union of the far-right wing parties (URWP ) and Zehut.

Israel’s ethnic, social and religious fragmentation as deliberated earlier, is likely to play a monumental role in the upcoming elections. Israel’s ultra-religious, Orthodox population, the Haredi take electoral advice from their rabbis and often cast their ballot in support of dedicated parties. However, more and more Haredi are now willing to vote for mainstream parties, partly motivated by issues such as ultra-Orthodox military conscription which is likely to be a key talking point for the next Knesset. Israeli Arabs, who comprise a fifth of the population, are not expected to vote in similar numbers as in 2015 when Arab parties joined together under the Joint Arab List. However, the electoral committee in charge of the elections has banned the consolidated list for these elections. Zehut, and it’s nationalist, libertarian leader, Moshe Feiglin could end up playing kingmaker. The Zehut party has garnered significant support among Israeli youth over its liberal position on the legalisation of cannabis.

Assessment

Our assessment is that Israel’s society perceives the split between left (Centre – Arab) and the right as a severe social tension. We believe the left-right dichotomy has grown beyond the Israeli – Palestinian conflict and embraces a plethora of aspects, especially over the nature of Israeli democracy. Israel’s electorate is divided over whether Israeli democracy is in danger or if it is on the right path, as well as, whether the right impedes principles of liberal democracy or if the left has established structures of a deep state. We feel that a similar divergence can be observed on whether Israel’s current policies towards the West Bank and Gaza will ensure the safety of the state. We also believe that a crucial aspect in this equation is a growing trend amongst right-wing parties to change the nature of Israeli democracy – the attempt to shift it from a liberal to a majoritarian democracy, where there are limited checks and balances to parliamentary authority. We would also say that the passing of the so-called “override clause“ (Piskat HaHitgabrut) which permits the Knesset to overrule Supreme Court decisions, would effectively mean the end of the Supreme Courts’ functioning as the apex constitutional court, granting every government through its parliamentary majority unrestrained legislative powers. Most importantly, we believe that Israel’s electorate is most concerned with the capability of their next leader to lead their country, ensure economic stability and growth, without cutting corners on issues of national security; simply put, Israel wants a strong, capable leader that can lead them through any trial and tribulation.

The forthcoming Israeli general elections on April 9th will be the most vied for, equivocating and possibly pivotal in the country’s republican history. Israel’s society has become increasingly polarised and political tensions are on the rise; the left-right dichotomy has grown beyond the Israeli – Palestinian conflict and now touches upon a series of questions regarding the fundamental values and institutions of the state. The road that brought Israelis to the ballots is fraught with scandals, fake news and harsh propaganda which has raised many concerns about the future of Israel itself. Is Israel’s democracy under strain? What is at stake at these elections?

Background

Israel’s ballot is based on a system of proportional representation, with the electoral threshold set at 3.25%; the number of Knesset (parliament) seats a party receives is directly proportional to the number of votes it receives. The Knesset is elected for a four-year term and is comprised of 120 seats, which makes securing 61 seat majority the central goal of political parties. As a multi-party state with fragmented demographic factors, Israel has never seen a single-party majority government, making coalition politics an important electoral consideration. Approximately 5.88 million people comprise the current electorate, with fourteen main political factions vying for their vote.

Key contenders:

Benjamin Netanyahu: is the only one who needs no introduction to foreign audiences he is well-known to be a racist against Palestinians, and is a strong supporter of corporate Israel, and of apartheid in which Palestinians are legally discriminated-against and in which Jews have the right to take Palestinian land and use it for new settlements by Jews. Benny Gantz: “Mr. Gantz’s election ads have trumpeted his military record, featuring a body count of Palestinian militants and scenes of destruction from the war in Gaza that he oversaw in 2014. Seeking to draw right-leaning voters away from Mr. Netanyahu, Mr. Gantz has talked tough on Iran and echoed the prime minister’s positions on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.” Yair Lapid: “Mr. Lapid has supported ‘separation’ from the Palestinians and in the past endorsed a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, though he has not repeated that call in the current campaign. He has also been outspoken in his opposition to political alliances with Israeli Arab parties.” Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked: “The education and justice ministers are presenting themselves as genuine right-wing alternatives to Mr. Netanyahu.” Avi Gabbay: “A former cabinet minister who was previously CEO of Israel’s largest telecoms company, Mr. Gabbay appealed to right-wing voters after he was elected Labour’s leader in 2017. He dismissed the notion of evacuating Jewish settlements in the West Bank and declared that ‘the left has forgotten what it is to be Jewish’, echoing a phrase once used by Mr. Netanyahu.” Moshe Feiglin: “A religious West Bank settler,” he is “a maverick politician with a mix of libertarian and ultra-nationalist views.”

Analysis

The main challenger of incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny

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- Insights ▷ April 2019

India’s ASW readinessChina has stepped up its activity in the Indian Ocean while maintaining a sizeable numbers advantage to India’s submarines. Can India adapt its surface technologies to thwart sub-surface threats?

Background

Anti-submarine warfare (ASW) employs surface vessels, aircraft or other submarines to find, track and deter sub-surface enemy targets. Second strike capability is the foundational principle upon which nuclear deterrence is established. The ability to counter nuclear first-strike assets on land has resulted in water-based, second-strike platforms - typically, submarines. The ability to effectively perform ASW is vital in reducing the second-strike capabilities of any power.

The Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) is an accord between India and the US, geared towards enabling greater communications and military interoperability. Interoperability is the ability of a system to work with other platforms without any restrictions. COMCASA facilitates the transfer of specialised equipment from the US to India, in addition to representing America’s Indo-Pacific shift.

Analysis

India currently operates 16 submarines, of which one is nuclear-powered (another is currently undergoing trials). Nuclear power allows submarines to operate indefinitely, restricted only by supply issues for its crew. Conversely, China wields 78 submarines, of which 23 are nuclear-powered. China’s dependence on the South China Sea and the Middle East for its crude-oil imports requires the nation to project its power on vast stretches of the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.

India has historically used its surface capabilities to counter sub-surface threats. For example, in 1971, the Indian Navy sank Pakistan’s first fast-attack submarine, PNS Ghazi, using ASW. To satisfy the disparity presented by China’s submarine power, Indian authorities have focused on building up its anti-submarine assets. India developed an indigenously built class of corvettes called Kamorta that serves as its primary surface asset against submarines. India’s three Karmota-class corvettes (another is currently under construction) are fitted with internal platforms, including radar and sonar technology, tailored explicitly for ASW. To effectively find and track submarines, India also operates eight (four more on the way) Boeing P-8I Poseidon, transferred to India under COMCASA. The Indian Navy operates Sikorsky’s SH-3 Sea King and Westland’s WS-61 Sea King, designed to ‘hunt’ and ‘kill’ submarines. To continue to augment India’s ASW capabilities, India is set to purchase 24 MH-60R Seahawk helicopters, replenishing the ageing British-made Westland Sea King, from the US under COMCASA.

A US-led initiative that works to assess China’s growing clout in Asia is primarily in coalition with India, Japan and Australia. Called the Quad, this initiative effectively covers the entirety of China’s sea-faring territory: Japan to it’s east, Australia to the South-East and India to the West, with the US able to project its power across the region. In recent weeks, India has conducted multiple drills and exercises, specifically focused on ASW, with Japan, Australia and the US. Japan has, in recent years, brought multiple platforms it uses to engage in ASW to boost interoperability between the two military forces. The parties believe that each partner must operate at similar standards while ensuring that the mammoth task is divided in an operationally effective manner. Interoperability exercises aid in boosting India’s defensive posture, while allowing higher-levels of parity with the Chinese threat.

Frustrated European leaders have abandoned hope that Britain would sort its departure from the European Union anytime soon, slapping aside a proposal by Prime Minister Theresa May for a short delay and offering to extend Brexit until October 31st, 2019.

Background

On June 23rd, 2016, Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union, stunning Europe and the world in general. The EU employs a set of policies for its 28-member states that aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods and trade among other services. Britain is deeply intertwined with the workings of the EU especially with regard to trade. PM Theresa May’s leadership in the negotiations has been heavily criticised. She has been unable to form a consensus within the Parliament, or even her own party, for the course of Brexit. Her “directionless” leadership has not convinced most of her peers in Westminster and in March 2019, the Parliament voted to take control over the Brexit negotiations from the government. Despite her best efforts, the British parliament is not accepting the proposed Brexit agreement. Irrespective of whether they arrive at a deal or not, the UK was originally expected to leave on March 29th, 2019, which was later extended unilaterally by the EU for two weeks until April 12th. However, the complete disarray in Parliament has prompted the EU to extend the deadline yet again.

Analysis

The Oct. 31 extension could end early if British lawmakers sign on to the E.U.’s unpopular terms of departure. Leaders also said they would review the membership in June. The decision avoids a chaotic departure by Britain on Friday. It also might lock Britain into elections for the European Parliament next month — which would increase agitation for May’s resignation. May wanted an extension to June 30, to seal a deal with her own divided lawmakers. The European leaders, talking Brexit for at least the 18th time and exasperated by Brexit “emergency summits,” wanted to free themselves from the chaos of British politics. The extension is “long enough to allow the U.K. to find a solution,” said European Council President Donald Tusk. “I have a message to our British friends. Please, do not waste this time.”

At the summit, May was peppered with 45 minutes of questions by European leaders. They demanded to know her political strategy. They were openly sceptical that her negotiations back home with the opposition Labour Party would produce a winning compromise. They extracted commitments of good behaviour if Britain remains an E.U. member. Then her counterparts ushered her out so they could trade views about just how harsh they wanted to be. They debated while eating dinner and continued arguing into the Brussels night as May cooled her heels at the residence of the British ambassador to the European Union. Finally, they called her back to deliver their offer.

Even the reprieve was the result of a compromise among the European leaders, with French President Emmanuel Macron favouring harsher terms that could have cut Britain loose sooner, and others favouring a softer touch. “For me and for Germany it was clear, that Germany would fight for an orderly exit,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said afterwards at a news conference. “Not because of British demands but for our own interest.” She left the door open to more extensions. As May has failed to get Parliament to approve the withdrawal deal she negotiated for two years with the E.U. — her own party members loathing it and voting against it at every opportunity — Britain finds itself in limbo. What this situation means is that Britain will stay in the club — and is still on the hook for membership dues — but its voice will be muffled. British members of the European Parliament might make some mischief, as threatened by hard-line Brexiteers, but London will have little sway in Brussels.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the UK now has ample time to strategise and execute a credible exit plan if the Parliament continues to abide by the referendum results. We believe, however, that this could spell the exit of Theresa May as the PM due to her failures and the inability to hold the Conservative Party on established lines. We also feel that May could be replaced by a pro-Brexit, Eurosceptic Conservative MP who could derail the entire Brexit process.

Brexit deadline extended to October

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- Insights ▷April 2019

Sri Lanka’s government has blamed local jihadist group National Thowheed Jama'ath for one of Asia’s deadliest terrorist attacks in years and said other nations had shared intelligence ahead of the blasts. However, did the Sri Lankan government ignore intelligence reports about an impending attack?

Background

On 21st April 2019, Easter Sunday, three churches across Sri Lanka and three luxury hotels in the commercial capital Colombo were bombed. Later that day, there were smaller explosions at a housing complex and a guest house, killing two civilians and three police officers investigating the situation and raiding suspect locations. Several cities in Sri Lanka were targeted. At least 290 people were killed, including at least 35 foreign nationals and three police officers, and at least 500 were injured in the

Violence returns to Sri Lanka

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the first trip aimed at galvanising support, while talks with Washington are in limbo. Is North Korea looking for other negotiating partners after its refusal to meet with Secretary Pompeo?

Background

Diplomatic relations between North Korea and the Soviet Union were first established on October 12th, 1948, shortly after the Democratic People's Republic of Korea was proclaimed. Relations between the two countries continued after the fall of the Soviet Union. The relationship gained some importance again after Vladimir Putin was elected President of Russia in 2000. Kim Jong-un also accepted an invitation to visit Russia in mid-2015. The two states share a border along the lower Tumen River, which is 17 kilometres long.

The past decade has seen gradual warming of bilateral relations, more so under the leadership of Putin and Kim Jong-un. In September 2012 Russia agreed to write off 90% of North Korea's $11 billion historical debt to Russia as a sign of closer engagement with North Korea's new leader. The $1 billion which North Korea had to repay will be used to finance Russian investment in humanitarian and energy projects in North Korea. In November 2014 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's special envoy, Choe Ryong-hae, made a seven-day visit to Russia. During his trip, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, delivering a letter to him from Kim Jong-un.

Analysis

The armoured train carrying Kim — on his first official visit to Russia — pulled into the quayside station in Vladivostok, on the Pacific Ocean, a few hours after crossing from North Korea into Russia. After a brief delay, while the door of Kim’s carriage was lined up with a red carpet laid out on the platform, the door opened, and a smiling Kim stepped out. Earlier, at a stop on the border, Kim told Russian state television he was hoping for useful and successful discussions with Putin. “I hope that we can

discuss concrete questions about peace negotiations on the Korean peninsula, and our bilateral relations,” he said through an interpreter.

Kim will sit down for talks with Putin on Thursday at a university campus on an island just off Vladivostok. It will be the first summit between the two leaders, and the standoff over Pyongyang’s nuclear programme will top the agenda, according to a Kremlin foreign policy aide. The meeting comes two months after a summit in Vietnam between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump ended in failure, leaving the North Korean leader looking elsewhere for international support and relief from sanctions.

For Putin, the summit is an opportunity to show that Russia remains a major global player despite being under sanctions itself, over its intervention in Ukraine and allegations that it meddled in U.S. elections. However, analysts predict that Kim is unlikely to emerge from the summit with any substantial promises of sanctions relief. The meeting is likely to focus more on showing camaraderie. Vladivostok is located a few hours from the Russian-North Korean border by rail, Kim’s preferred mode of international transport.

At his first summit with Russia's Putin in the far eastern Russian port of Vladivostok, Kim said: "the situation on the Korean Peninsula and the region is now at a standstill and has reached a critical point". Putin emerged from the meeting saying that like Washington, Moscow supported efforts to reduce tension on the Korean Peninsula and prevent nuclear conflicts. However, he also insisted that the North needed "guarantees of its security, the preservation of its sovereignty". Kim also said the actions taken by Washington were in "bad faith", implying a lack of trust in the negotiation process.

Assessment

Our assessment is that Kim Jong-un is eager to establish himself as a significant world leader by unilaterally engaging with another world leader. We believe that Vladimir Putin could propose a restart of the six-party denuclearisation talks - which involved the United States, China, Russia, Japan and the two Koreas - last held in 2008. We also feel that the meeting was decided to be held in Vladivostok, a city less than 150 kms from the North Korean border as a sign of Russia’s accommodation of Kim, who travels only through his armoured train. Kim Jong-un in Russia

Counterpoint

India has historically promoted a policy of non-alignment. It’s current ASW efforts require inputs from multiple external sources to counter the Chinese sub-surface threat effectively. India is, therefore, giving up its strategic autonomy. At the beginning of 2019, India conspicuously rejected Australia’s involvement in the annual Malabar naval exercise, while Japan and the US participated. This is indicative of concerns within Indian defence circles of overtly leaning on load-sharing to thwart Chinese sub-surface action. India is drawing a clear distinction between the Quad and the broader Indo-Pacific strategy.

Assessment

Our assessment is that India is using its COMCASA agreement with the US to catch-up with China’s runaway submarine power. However, India is hesitant to fully commit to the American-led Quad strategy due to the importance it places on strategic autonomy. We believe that India will continue to augment its ASW capabilities through interoperability missions with its strategic partners, although it will stop shy of multilateral exercises. Simultaneously, it will also develop other indigenous technologies, such as submarine drones, to meet its requirement for strategic autonomy.

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- Insights ▷ April 2019

South Korea will become the first country to commercially launch fifth-generation (5G) services on 5th April 2019 as it rolls out the latest wireless technology with Samsung Electronics’ new 5G-enabled smartphone Galaxy S10.

South Korea rolls out 5G service

Background

5G (from "5th Generation") is the latest generation of cellular mobile communications. It succeeds the 4G, 3G, and 2G systems. 5G performance targets high data rate, reduced latency, energy saving, cost reduction, higher system capacity, and massive device connectivity. The first phase of 5G specifications in Release-15 will be completed by April 2019 to accommodate the early commercial deployment. The second phase in Release-16 is due to be completed by April 2020 for submission to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) as a candidate for IMT-2020 technology. Development of 5G is being led by companies such as Huawei, Intel and Qualcomm, for modem technology and Cisco, Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia, Samsung and ZTE, for infrastructure. Worldwide commercial launch is expected in 2020. Numerous operators have demonstrated 5G as well, including Korea Telecom for the 2018 Winter Olympics and Telstra at the 2018 Commonwealth Games. As of February 2019, the Global Mobile Suppliers Association had identified 201 operators in 83 countries that are actively investing in 5G.

Analysis

With one of the world’s top smartphone penetration rates, South Korea is in a race with China, the United States and Japan to market 5G, hoping the technology will spur breakthrough in fields such as smart cities and autonomous cars, and drive up its economic growth that slowed to a six-year low in 2018. “It is meaningful that South Korean telecom companies are providing services and networks meeting South Korean customers’ high standard in speed and picture quality,” Ryu Young-sang, executive vice president at the country’s top mobile carrier SK Telecom, said.

The technology can offer 20-times faster data speeds than 4G long-term evolution (LTE) networks and better support for artificial intelligence and virtual reality with low latency. South Korean carriers have spent billions on campaigns marketing 5G and, on Wednesday, SK Telecom showed off K-pop stars and an Olympic gold medalist as its first 5G customers. SK Telecom is working with its memory-chip making affiliate SK Hynix to build a highly digitized and connected factory powered by 5G technology, Ryu said. The operator expects about 1 million 5G customers by end-2019. It has a total of 27 million users. Their smaller rival KT Corp is set to offer cheaper plans than its LTE service, with unlimited data and 4-year instalments to buy 5G devices.

Samsung was the first to unwrap a 5G phone in February when it unveiled the Galaxy S10 5G and a nearly $2,000 folding smartphone, putting the world’s top smartphone maker by volume, in pole position in the 5G race, some analysts say. While security concerns over 5G networks using telecom equipment made by China’s Huawei have marred the build-up to the release of these services, South Korean telcos have tried to shrug them off. He added that the company uses advanced technology to block eavesdropping or hacking into 5G networks. Among South Korea’s top three telecom operators, SK Telecom and KT Corp do not use Huawei equipment for 5G. Smaller carrier LG Uplus uses Huawei gear.

Assessment

Our assessment is that South Korea’s massive and innovative smartphone industry has enabled it to deploy cutting edge telecommunication networks months head of a global roll out of comparable scale. We believe that South Korea’s per capita income, smartphone penetration and mobile data prices allows it to invest and leverage the 5G network, as opposed to other markets like India and even China, where mobile data is expensive and infrastructure is lacking.

bombings. The church bombings were carried out during Easter services in Negombo, Batticaloa and Colombo; the hotels bombed were the Shangri-La, Cinnamon Grand and Kingsbury hotels.

National Thowheeth Jama'ath is a Sri Lankan Islamist jihadist group. The group promotes Islamist terrorist ideology. NTJ's leadership had been condemned by several Sri Lankan Muslim organizations in 2016 for advocating extreme fundamentalist indoctrination of children and for clashes with Buddhist monks. In 2018, NTJ was linked to vandalism of Buddhist statues.

Analysis

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said in an address to the nation that authorities had received warnings but “not enough attention had been paid.” One of his cabinet ministers, Harin Fernando, tweeted an internal police memo dated April 11th warning a group called National Thowheed Jama'ath planned to bomb Catholic churches and the Indian High Commission.

The death toll rose to 290 in the coordinated attacks on Easter Sunday at churches and luxury hotels, which the government said had been carried out by seven suicide bombers. The Easter Sunday assaults targeted foreign tourists and Christians, marking a shift from the violence that fueled a three-decade civil war on the Indian Ocean island. A sense of unease pervaded the nation following a period of relative calm in the decade since the end of a brutal conflict between the predominately Buddhist Sinhalese majority and mostly Hindu Tamil minority. Police recovered 87 low explosive detonators abandoned at a bus stand in the Pettah area of the capital on Monday, according to an emailed statement, while a bomb disposal squad conducted a controlled explosion in the capital after finding explosives in an abandoned vehicle.

Several blasts occurred hours after the first explosions on Sunday, and experts detonated a pipe bomb found on a road near Colombo’s airport. Authorities imposed a nationwide curfew and blocked platforms like Facebook and Whatsapp. The Colombo Stock Exchange put its Monday opening on hold and schools will remain closed until Wednesday. Sri Lankan Airlines Ltd. advised travellers to arrive four hours before their flights to undergo additional security checks.

Assessment

Our assessment is that this was not an intelligence failure, rather this was a failure of acting on credible intelligence reports. We believe the attacks will test a government that’s reeling from a political crisis last year that has weighed on the economy and led to downgrades in Sri Lanka’s credit rating. We also feel that the attack is bad news for the country where the memories of the civil war are still very much alive. This was the first attack in Sri Lanka since the LTTE was defeated in 2009, and it has the potential to re-ignite the sparks of Sri Lanka’s bloody ethnic conflicts.

US to step up Black sea surveillance

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- Insights ▷April 2019

To access all editions of the Synergia Foundation Key Insights Newsletter, visit:www.synergiainsights.in

Editor- Chandana S

SYNERGIA FOUNDATIONSynergia Foundation is a strategic think tank that works with corporate executive boards & governments to provide deep insights on threats that affect both individuals & organisations. We work on real-time primary information, and draw on our global network of resources to deliver the most comprehensive analysis and impactful solutions.

SYNERGIA FORUMSynergia Forum is a gathering of eminent experts to discuss challenges and disruptions that governments, industry and research institutions may face in the future.

INSIGHTSInsights is a weekly newsletter published by the experts at the Synergia Foundation that provide analysis and assessment of geo-political events based on real-time information.

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Fake News: Reality or distortion?

Case 1: Notre-Dame fire and misinformation

One of this year’s darkest events was the burning of the Notre-Dame cathedral in Paris, France. While the citizens of the country and the world prayed and mourned for the architectural disaster, misinformation about the blast spread.

Many news organisations used YouTube services to broadcast the event of the burning cathedral. However, YouTube’s set algorithms falsely flagged these videos as baseless conspiracy theories related to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attack. Incidentally, YouTube possesses fact-checking tools. As a result, many false rumours are being spread about claims that fire was triggered by radical Islamic terrorist who may have used the renovation work as an entry point.

Assessment

Our assessment is that while regulating social media companies to curb fake news, the AI and algorithmic tools must also come under scrutiny. We feel that even with the advancement of modern technology, global fact-checking tools suffer from critical inadequacies. We believe that a highly influential platform such as YouTube has to prioritise the classification of user-generated data based on the content and keywords.

Case 2: The never-ending fake news during Indian elections 2019

While India begins its most massive democratic exercise with more than nine hundred million citizens registered to vote in the country’s general elections, fact-checking and debunking fake news has also begun simultaneously. Despite efforts to prevent or curb the spread, many rumours have already been circulated during this period.

Some of the recent stories that have been circulating include: Firstly, how Sonia Gandhi, the leader of the main opposition Congress party is wealthier than the Queen of England. However, this story was debunked six years ago, and the origin of the story dates back to 2012. Secondly, fake news has been spreading on how the UN's Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) had named Mr Modi as the world's best prime minister. This is false information as the UNESCO does not provide such awards. Thirdly, fake news has been spreading on how prosthetic fingers are being used to allow people to vote multiple times.

Assessment

Our assessment is that general elections in India has been one of the most awaited exercise, and it is evident that the proliferation of fake news would increase. We believe that though many initiatives are taken by the government together with social media companies to curb the spread, there has been only little impact.

The United States is set to unveil a Black Sea package, adding more warships and surveillance in the old Cold War arena on the 70th anniversary of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the backbone of the Western alliance.

Background

The Black Sea is a body of water and a marginal sea of the Atlantic Ocean between the Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Western Asia. It is supplied by a number of major rivers, such as the Danube, Dnieper, Southern Bug, Dniester, Don, and the Rioni. Many countries drain into the Black Sea, including Austria, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey and Ukraine. The Black Sea drains into the Mediterranean Sea, via the Aegean Sea and various straits, and is navigable to the Atlantic Ocean. The Bosphorus Strait connects it to the Sea of Marmara, and the Strait of the Dardanelles connects that sea to the Aegean Sea region of the Mediterranean. These waters separate Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Western Asia. The Black Sea is also connected, to the North, to the Sea of Azov by the Strait of Kerch.

The 1936 Montreux Convention provides for a free passage of civilian ships between the international waters of the Black and the Mediterranean Seas. However, a single country (Turkey) has a complete control over the straits connecting the two seas. The Convention also governs the passage of vessels between the Black and the Mediterranean Seas and the presence of military vessels belonging to non-littoral states in the Black Sea waters. In December 2018, the Kerch Strait incident took place. The Russian Navy and Coast guard took control of three ships belonging to their counterparts. The ships were trying to enter the Black Sea and were instead detained by the Russian navy for trespassing “sovereign waters”.

Analysis

The three-day occasion to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) will see the foreign ministers of 29 NATO members gathering in Washington, and it is expected to be laden with ceremony and symbolism. NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg was slated to address the joint chambers of Congress - the first time a head of NATO has been invited to do so. Another event was to be held in the Mellon Auditorium, where then President Harry S. Truman had hosted the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty in 1949. The message will be one of unity and reassurance. But behind the bubbly, there will also be some serious business. At age 70, the NATO is gearing up for a new phase - countering a revisionist old enemy, Russia; and containing a rising power, China.

President Donald Trump has triggered unease over the degree of US commitment to NATO. His escalating demands that NATO partners pay their fair share of defence costs has put pressure on members such as Germany and Italy. Since 2016, NATO members have stepped up their spending by US$40 billion (S$54 billion). Despite the unease, Mr. Trump has strengthened the alliance by sending a signal to Europe that it needs to step up to its own defence rather than rely on the US to do the heavy lifting. NATO and the European Union had been forced to see an urgency in the Euros getting their act together in terms of the EU's future, economic competitiveness and European security, without America, or despite America.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the expansion of US presence in the Black Sea is a reaction to the Kerch Strait incident which was in violation of International Law and the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas. We believe that the new US Black Sea package may be too little, too late - as both Russia and Turkey are forming closer defence cooperation and encircling US allies in the region, including Ukraine.