VOLUME 13 - NUMBER 2 COLLEGE BOWL GUIDE 2014-15 · statfox edge college bowl guide 2014-15 staff...

COLLEGE BOWL GUIDE 2014-15

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VOLUME 13 - NUMBER 2

INSIDE: HANDICAPPING ANALYSIS & PICKS FOR

BOWL GAMES38

WHO WILL WIN

IT ALL?

ALABAMA

OHIO STATE

OREGON

FLORIDA STATE

StatFox Staff Selections 3Recent Bowl Game Trends 4Bowl Game Power Ratings 6Bowl Game Top Statistical Edges 7Bowl Game Outplay Factor Ratings 8Bowl Game Breakdowns:

Welcome to the ninth annual edition of the StatFox Edge College Football Bowl Game Guide. It has long been our belief that this should be the most rewarding time of the college football season being that we’re given weeks to prepare for each game as opposed to the five or six days between games throughout the regular season. What we’ve aimed to do with this publication is once again arm you with all of the trends, background, insight and statistics so that you can maximize your opportunities.

This year’s Bowl Guide includes Power Ratings, Outplay Factor Ratings, top Stat Differentials and more of the useful tools that readers of StatFox.com, FoxSheets.com and our weekly Platinum Sheet publication have come to rely on. Our 38-page section of bowl-by-bowl matchups is where we thoroughly analyze each game. And, of course, we provide picks from our StatFox Forecaster, which uses proprietary algorithms to generate remarkably reliable predictions year-in and year-out. Check out our Web sites, StatFox.com and FoxSheets.com, throughout the bowl season, as we’ll be updating news and developments to ensure you have the up-to-date information you need.

Now go get ’em!

Scott GramlingManaging Editor

Managing Editor Scott Gramling

ExEcutivE Editor Jeff Makinen

crEativE dirEctor Ian Knowles

contributing WritErS Dave Bartman Gary Bennett Brian Graham

aSSiStant Editor Zachary Cohen

Editorial dirEction 10Ten Media

daily racing ForM llc Jim Kostas President Todd Unger President of SIG Digital Jacob Luft Director, Digital Products The 2014-15 StatFox Edge College Football Bowl Game Guide is published by Daily Racing Form LLC, 708 Third Avenue, 12th Floor, New York, NY 10017. All rights reserved.

ThIS PUBLICATION IS NOT SPONSORED OR AUThORIZED BY ANY AThLETIC CONFERENCE NOR hOLDER OF ANY TRADEMARK OR SERVICE MARK. ALL TEAM NAMES AND LOGOS ARE TRADEMARKS OF ThE TEAMS INDICATED. ThIS PUBLICATION MAKES NO REP-RESENTATION AS TO WhEThER ONLINE GAMBLING IS LEGAL IN YOUR JURISDICTION. PLEASE ChECK WITh YOUR LOCAL AUThORITIES. ALL INFORMATION IS FOR NEWS MATTER ONLY.

EDGE 2014 -15 COLLEGE fOOtbaLL bOWL GaME GUIDE

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STATFOX EDGE cOllEGE bOwl GuiDE 2014-15

New Orleans Bowl 10New Mexico Bowl 11Las Vegas Bowl 12Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 13Camellia Bowl 14Miami Beach Bowl 15Boca Raton Bowl 16Poinsettia Bowl 17Bahamas Bowl 18Hawaii Bowl 19Heart of Dallas Bowl 20Quick Lane Bowl 21

St. Petersburg Bowl 22Military Bowl 23Sun Bowl 24Independence Bowl 25Pinstripe Bowl 26Holiday Bowl 27Liberty Bowl 28Russell Athletic Bowl 29Texas Bowl 30Music City Bowl 31Belk Bowl 32Foster Farms Bowl 33Belk Bowl 34

Fiesta Bowl 35Orange Bowl 36Outback Bowl 37Cotton Bowl 38Citrus Bowl 39Rose Bowl 40Sugar Bowl 41Armed Forces Bowl 42TaxSlayer Bowl 43Alamo Bowl 44Cactus Bowl 45Birmiongham Bowl 46GoDaddy.com Bowl 47

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* CLEMSON/OKLAHOMA SPREAD IS AN ESTIMATED LINE** FORECASTER PREDICTS BAYLOR WILL WIN BY EXACTLY THREE POINTS

NEW ORLEANS BOWL • (201) NEVADA vs. (202) UL - LAFAYETTE -1 CLICK FOR BEST BET NEVADA UL - LAFAYETTE UL-LAFAYETTE NEVADA

NEW MEXICO BOWL • (203) UTEP vs. (204) UTAH STATE -10½ UTAH STATE CLICK FOR BEST BET UTEP UTAH STATE UTAH STATE

LAS VEGAS BOWL • (205) UTAH vs. (206) COLORADO STATE +4½ UTAH UTAH UTAH CLICK FOR BEST BET COLORADO STATE

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL • (207) WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. (208) AIR FORCE +1 WESTERN MICHIGAN WESTERN MICHIGAN WESTERN MICHIGAN AIR FORCE AIR FORCE

CAMELLIA BOWL • (209) SOUTH ALABAMA vs. (210) BOWLING GREEN +2½ CLICK FOR BEST BET SOUTH ALABAMA BOWLING GREEN BOWLING GREEN BOWLING GREEN

MIAMI BEACH BOWL • (211) BYU vs. (212) MEMPHIS -1 CLICK FOR BEST BET MEMPHIS MEMPHIS MEMPHIS MEMPHIS

BOCA RATON BOWL • (213) NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. (214) MARSHALL -10 NO. ILLINOIS CLICK FOR BEST BET CLICK FOR BEST BET CLICK FOR BEST BET MARSHALL

POINSETTIA BOWL • (215) NAVY vs. (216) SAN DIEGO STATE -2½ SAN DIEGO STATE NAVY SAN DIEGO STATE NAVY SAN DIEGO STATE

BAHAMAS BOWL • (217) CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. (218) WESTERN KENTUCKY -2½ CLICK FOR BEST BET WESTERN KENTUCKY WESTERN KENTUCKY WESTERN KENTUCKY CENTRAL MICHIGAN

HAWAII BOWL • (219) FRESNO STATE vs. (220) RICE -1 FRESNO STATE RICE RICE FRESNO STATE RICE

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL • (221) ILLINOIS vs. (222) LOUISIANA TECH -6 ILLINIOS ILLINOIS LOUISIANA TECH ILLINOIS LOUISIANA TECH

QUICK LANE BOWL • (223) RUTGERS vs. (224) NORTH CAROLINA -3 NORTH CAROLINA NORTH CAROLINA NORTH CAROLINA NORTH CAROLINA RUTGERS

ST.PETERSBURG BOWL • (225) NC STATE vs. (226) CENTRAL FLORIDA -1½ CLICK FOR BEST BET CENTRAL FLORIDA CENTRAL FLORIDA CLICK FOR BEST BET N.C. STATE

MILITARY BOWL • (227) VIRGINIA TECH vs. (228) CINCINNATI -3½ VIRGINIA TECH VIRGINIA TECH CLICK FOR BEST BET VIRGINIA TECH CINCINNATI

SUN BOWL • (229) DUKE vs. (230) ARIZONA STATE -8 ARIZONA STATE DUKE CLICK FOR BEST BET DUKE DUKE

INDEPENDENCE BOWL • (231) MIAMI FLORIDA vs. (232) SOUTH CAROLINA +3 SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA CLICK FOR BEST BET MIAMI FLORIDA

PINSTRIPE BOWL • (233) PENN STATE vs. (234) BOSTON COLLEGE -2½ BOSTON COLLEGE CLICK FOR BEST BET BOSTON COLLEGE PENN STATE BOSTON COLLEGE

HOLIDAY BOWL • (235) NEBRASKA vs. (236) USC -6½ USC CLICK FOR BEST BET NEBRASKA USC NEBRASKA

LIBERTY BOWL • (237) WEST VIRGINIA vs. (238) TEXAS A&M +3½ TEXAS AM TEXAS A&M WEST VIRGINIA TEXAS A&M TEXAS A&M

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL • (239) CLEMSON vs. (240) OKLAHOMA -2½* CLEMSON CLEMSON CLEMSON OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA

TEXAS BOWL • (241) TEXAS vs. (242) ARKANSAS -6 ARKANSAS TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS ARKANSAS

MUSIC CITY BOWL • (243) NOTRE DAME vs. (244) LSU -7½ NOTRE DAME NOTRE DAME NOTRE DAME NOTRE DAME NOTRE DAME

BELK BOWL • (245) LOUISVILLE vs. (246) GEORGIA -7 GEORGIA CLICK FOR BEST BET LOUISVILLE LOUISVILLE LOUISVILLE

FOSTER FARMS BOWL • (247) MARYLAND vs. (248) STANFORD -14 STANFORD STANFORD MARYLAND MARYLAND MARYLAND

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL • (249) MISSISSIPPI vs. (250) TCU -3½ TCU TCU MISSISSIPPI CLICK FOR BEST BET MISSISSIPPI

FIESTA BOWL • (251) BOISE STATE vs. (252) ARIZONA -3 BOISE STATE ARIZONA CLICK FOR BEST BET ARIZONA BOISE STATE

ORANGE BOWL • (253) GEORGIA TECH vs. (254) MISSISSIPPI STATE -7 CLICK FOR BEST BET CLICK FOR BEST BET MISSISSIPPI STATE CLICK FOR BEST BET GEORGIA TECH

OUTBACK BOWL • (255) WISCONSIN vs. (256) AUBURN -6½ AUBURN CLICK FOR BEST BET AUBURN WISCONSIN WISCONSIN

COTTON BOWL CLASSIC • (257) MICHIGAN STATE vs. (258) BAYLOR -3 CLICK FOR BEST BET BAYLOR CLICK FOR BEST BET CLICK FOR BEST BET ** NO PICK **

CITRUS BOWL • (259) MINNESOTA vs. (260) MISSOURI -5½ MINNESOTA MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI MINNESOTA

ROSE BOWL • (261) FLORIDA STATE vs. (262) OREGON -9 FLORIDA STATE OREGON FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE FLORIDA STATE

SUGAR BOWL • (263) OHIO STATE vs. (264) ALABAMA -9½ CLICK FOR BEST BET ALABAMA BEST BET ALABAMA OHIO STATE

ARMED FORCES BOWL • (265) PITTSBURGH vs. (266) HOUSTON +3 HOUSTON HOUSTON HOUSTON HOUSTON PITTSBURGH

TAXSLAYER BOWL • (267) IOWA vs. (268) TENNESSEE -3½ TENNESSEE CLICK FOR BEST BET IOWA IOWA IOWA

ALAMO BOWL • (269) UCLA vs. (270) KANSAS STATE -1½ KANSAS STATE KANSAS STATE UCLA CLICK FOR BEST BET KANSAS STATE

CACTUS BOWL • (271) OKLAHOMA STATE vs. (272) WASHINGTON -5½ OKLAHOMA STATE OKLAHOMA STATE WASHINGTON WASHINGTON OKLAHOMA STATE

BIRMINGHAM BOWL • (273) EAST CAROLINA vs. (274) FLORIDA -7 EAST CAROLINA EAST CAROLINA EAST CAROLINA EAST CAROLINA EAST CAROLINA

GO DADDY.COM BOWL • (275) TOLEDO vs. (276) ARKANSAS STATE +2½ TOLEDO TOLEDO ARKANSAS STATE ARKANSAS STATE TOLEDO

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• In the past seven seasons, the FAVORITES have a slight edge, going 121-111 ATS (52%), but were 17-18 ATS (49%) last bowl season. The Over/Under has also been close in the past seven seasons, as the UNDER has hit 130 of 239 times (54%), including 40-29 (58%) over the past two bowl seasons.

• FAVORITES in post-New Year’s non-BCS games were a hefty 37-11 SU & 30-18 ATS (63%) from 2008 to 2013, but that trend reversed last year to January UNDERDOGS going 10-2 ATS (8-4 SU). North Texas and Vanderbilt were the only January favorites to both win and cover.

• Prior to the 2007-08 bowl season, a distinct patternhad been forming in which UNDERDOGS were dominating the bowl games between Christmas Day and New Year’sDay. But in the past five seasons (2008 to 2012), that pattern reversed itself, with FAVORITES holding the slight edge at 38-35-1 ATS (52%). However, trend went back to underdogs in 2013 with underdogs tallying a 9-5 ATS (64%) record (two games pick ‘em) in games played from Dec. 26 to Dec. 31.

• The 2013-14 bowl season had eight matchups of BCS schools against non-BCS opponents. BCS schools were 6-2 ATS (5-3 SU) in these contests. Over the past seven bowl seasons, BCS schools are 31-19 ATS (62%) against non-BCS.

• Since 1992, double-digit underdogs are a solid 49-38-2 ATS (56%), which includes a 6-2 ATS mark last year. The three biggest ‘dogs last bowl season all won outright (Okla-homa +17 vs. ‘Bama, UCF +16.5 vs. Baylor, TTU +16 vs. ASU).

• In terms of Over/Under totals, 21 of the 35 gameswent UNDER in the 2013-14 bowl season, giving a six-year mark of 56% UNDER (115 Under in 205 games). In 2010-11, the UNDER was just 3-10 (23%) when the Total was less than 53, but in the past three bowl seasons, the UNDER was 20-18 (53%) in these sub-53 games. When the Total was 53 or above last year, the UNDER was 17-7 (71%).

Here are some angles digging deeper into the “quality” of past bowl games, broken down into four different categories:

Dec. 25-31 Bowl Games: • In post-Christmas, pre-New Year’s bowl games the past four years, 46-of-77 (60%) went UNDER the total.

• Dating back to 1998, UNDERDOGS own a giant 135-91-4 ATS (60%) edge in this grouping of bowl games. But last season the dogs were only 5-12 ATS (29%).

• Double-digit UNDERDOGS are a nearly automatic during this portion of bowl season, going 22-7 ATS (76%) since ’98.

January low-level Bowl Games:• As the point spread increases in this category, the

FAVORITE has more chance for a large win. FAVORITESof 6+ points from non-BCS January bowls are 13-8 ATS (62%) in the past 21 games. The Heart of Dallas Bowl is the only game where these big favorites have won SU & ATS in the past two seasons (Oklahoma St -17.5, North Texas -6).

• MAC teams are the most frequent victim in the January bowl games at 3-9 ATS, which includes Ball State losing to 7-point underdog Arkansas St. by a 23-20 score last season.

Premium January non-Bcs Bowl Games: • These games typically include the Outback, Gator, Capital One and Cotton Bowl games and are usually the most likely to go UNDER the total, 45-31 (59%) since 1996. Last season, the Under was 2-2 in these four bowls, with both the Gator (Nebraska 24-19) and Outback (LSU 21-14) finishing well under their totals of 61 and 48.5 respectively).

• In these Premium Games with 7+ point spreads, the OVER is 18-13 (58%) since 1992. However, both such games from last season (Gator and Outback) finished Under the total .

Bcs Bowl Games: • Dating back to 2004, UNDERDOGS own a 30-20-1 ATS (60%) edge in the five BCS Bowls, including a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in 2013, including a surprising 4-1 SU record.

• FAVORITES laying 5 points or less are 17-13-1 ATS (57%) in the last 31 BCS bowl games, but in the one instance of this last season, 3-point underdog Clemson beat Ohio State.

• The SEC owns a 10-6 SU & 11-5 ATS (69%) in its last 16 BCS bowl games, best of any league. In 2014, 17-point favor-ite Alabama lost SU, but Auburn won ATS in the title game.

Learning from the pastA breakdown of trends from recent bowl seasons

BowL game Betting insight

Toledo running back Kareem Hunt, who rushed for 1,360 yards on 173 carries with 11 touchdowns in 2014, will look to reverse the trend of MAC

teams having gone 3-9 ATS over their past dozen January bowl games.

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OL Opening Line PR StatFox Power Rating PRL Calculated Power Rating Line Edge The difference between the Power Rating Line and the actual Opening Line W/L Keep track of winners and losers

The StatFox Power Ratings are generated by a formula that weighs several key factors, including point mar-gins, strength of schedule and team stats. The ratings are not as reactive as those found elsewhere, and thus have proven to be a great handicapping tool. Use the W/L column to keep track of the winners and losers.

BOWL GAME POWER RATINGS

NEW ORLEANS BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

201 NEVADA -1½ 34 -7 5½

202 UL - LAFAYETTE 27

NEW MEXICO BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

203 UTEP 23

204 UTAH STATE -11½ 39 -16 4½

LAS VEGAS BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

205 UTAH -5 42 -4

206 COLORADO STATE 38 1

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

207 WESTERN MICHIGAN -2½ 31 -1

208 AIR FORCE 30 1½

CAMELLIA BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

209 SOUTH ALABAMA 23

210 BOWLING GREEN -1 24 -1 0

MIAMI BEACH BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

211 BYU -1 43 -1

212 MEMPHIS 42 0

BOCA RATON BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

213 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 37 3

214 MARSHALL -11 45 -8

POINSETTIA BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

215 NAVY 36 ½

216 SAN DIEGO STATE -1½ 37 -1

BAHAMAS BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

217 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 28

218 WESTERN KENTUCKY -2½ 37 -9 6½

HAWAII BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

219 FRESNO STATE -2 32 -4 2

220 RICE 28

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

221 ILLINOIS 32

222 LOUISIANA TECH -5 38 -6 1

QUICK LANE BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

223 RUTGERS 31

224 NORTH CAROLINA -3½ 36 -5 1½

ST.PETERSBURG BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

225 NC STATE 37

226 CENTRAL FLORIDA -2½ 42 -5 2½

MILITARY BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

227 VIRGINIA TECH 40 1

228 CINCINNATI -4 43 -3

SUN BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

229 DUKE 40

230 ARIZONA STATE -9 50 -10 1

INDEPENDENCE BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

231 MIAMI FLORIDA 42

232 SOUTH CAROLINA -1 45 -3 2

PINSTRIPE BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

233 PENN STATE 36

234 BOSTON COLLEGE -3 42 -6 3

HOLIDAY BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

235 NEBRASKA 44

236 USC -6 52 -8 2

LIBERTY BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

237 WEST VIRGINIA -3½ 45

238 TEXAS A&M 47 -2 5½

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

239 CLEMSON 51

240 OKLAHOMA 54 -3

TEXAS BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

241 TEXAS 41

242 ARKANSAS -5 50 -9 4

MUSIC CITY BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

243 NOTRE DAME 43

244 LSU -7½ 52 -9 1½

BELK BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

245 LOUISVILLE 49

246 GEORGIA -7 58 -9 2

FOSTER FARMS BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

247 MARYLAND 37

248 STANFORD -13 55 -18 5

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

249 MISSISSIPPI 55

250 TCU -3 63 -8 5

FIESTA BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

251 BOISE STATE 47 4

252 ARIZONA -4 47 0

ORANGE BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

253 GEORGIA TECH 54 6

254 MISSISSIPPI STATE -7 55 -1

OUTBACK BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

255 WISCONSIN 50 6½

256 AUBURN -6½ 50 0

COTTON BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

257 MICHIGAN STATE 57 -1 3

258 BAYLOR -2 56

CITRUS BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

259 MINNESOTA 45 1½

260 MISSOURI -5½ 49 -4

ROSE BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

261 FLORIDA STATE 58

262 OREGON -8 68 -10 2

SUGAR BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

263 OHIO STATE 62 10

264 ALABAMA -10 62 0

ARMED FORCES BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

265 PITTSBURGH -2½ 40 -2

266 HOUSTON 38 ½

TAXSLAYER BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

267 IOWA 39 ½

268 TENNESSEE -2½ 41 -2

ALAMO BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

269 UCLA 51

270 KANSAS STATE -1½ 55 -4 2½

CACTUS BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

271 OKLAHOMA STATE 41

272 WASHINGTON -5 46 -5 0

BIRMINGHAM BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

273 EAST CAROLINA 41 3½

274 FLORIDA -8½ 46 -5

GO DADDY.COM BOWL OL PR PRL Edge W/L

275 TOLEDO -2 33 -3 1

276 ARKANSAS STATE 30

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BOWL GAME POWER RATINGS


Points Scored (PPG) W/L1. WESTERN KENTUCKY (vs CENTRAL MICHIGAN): +18.82. TCU (vs OLE MISS): +16.43. MARSHALL (vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS): +12.94. CINCINNATI (vs VIRGINIA TECH): +12.15. OREGON (vs FLORIDA STATE): +11.56. LOUISIANA TECH (vs ILLINOIS): +11.07. ARKANSAS (vs TEXAS): +9.4 Rushing Yards Gained (RYPG) W/L1. BOSTON COLLEGE (vs PENN STATE): +148.32. NAVY (vs SAN DIEGO STATE): +139.13. OKLAHOMA (vs CLEMSON): +114.94. GEORGIA (vs LOUISVILLE): +105.65. OREGON (vs FLORIDA STATE): +102.56. GEORGIA TECH (vs MISSISSIPPI STATE): +93.07. AIR FORCE (vs WESTERN MICHIGAN): +91.7 Yards Per Rush Gained (YPR) W/L1. OKLAHOMA (vs CLEMSON): +2.42. GEORGIA (vs LOUISVILLE): +2.43. NC STATE (vs CENTRAL FLORIDA): +2.24. BOSTON COLLEGE (vs PENN STATE): +2.25. MARSHALL (vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS): +1.76. NEBRASKA (vs USC): +1.67. WISCONSIN (vs AUBURN): +1.4 Passing Yards Gained (PYPG) W/L1. EAST CAROLINA (vs FLORIDA): +186.02. WESTERN KENTUCKY (vs CENTRAL MICHIGAN): +143.03. MISSISSIPPI STATE (vs GEORGIA TECH): +130.44. NOTRE DAME (vs LSU): +129.85. COLORADO STATE (vs UTAH): +127.86. W MICHIGAN (vs AIR FORCE): +111.67. MARSHALL (vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS): +98.2 Yards Per Pass Attempted (PYA) W/L1. COLORADO STATE (vs UTAH): +2.72. AUBURN (vs WISCONSIN): +2.33. RICE (vs FRESNO STATE): +2.04. ARIZONA STATE (vs DUKE): +1.85. OREGON (vs FLORIDA STATE): +1.76. PITTSBURGH (vs HOUSTON): +1.77. MARSHALL (vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS): +1.7 Total Yards Gained (TYPG) W/L1. EAST CAROLINA (vs FLORIDA): +162.32. WESTERN KENTUCKY (vs CENTRAL MICHIGAN): +146.43. COLORADO STATE (vs UTAH): +123.14. MARSHALL (vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS): +120.95. OREGON (vs FLORIDA STATE): +110.76. TCU (vs OLE MISS): +98.77. CINCINNATI (vs VIRGINIA TECH): +90.2 Yards Per Play Attempted (YPP) W/L1. COLORADO STATE (vs UTAH): +2.02. MARSHALL (vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS): +1.93. CINCINNATI (vs VIRGINIA TECH): +1.34. GEORGIA (vs LOUISVILLE): +1.35. EAST CAROLINA (vs FLORIDA): +1.36. WESTERN KENTUCKY (vs CENTRAL MICHIGAN): +1.37. OKLAHOMA (vs CLEMSON): +1.2 Turnovers Committed Per Game (TOPG) W/L1. OREGON (vs FLORIDA STATE): +1.52. NC STATE (vs CENTRAL FLORIDA): +1.23. USC (vs NEBRASKA): +1.14. N ILLINOIS (vs MARSHALL): +1.05. GEORGIA (vs LOUISVILLE): +1.06. RICE (vs FRESNO STATE): +0.97. BOSTON COLLEGE (vs PENN STATE): +0.9

Points Allowed (PPG) W/L1. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (vs WESTERN KENTUCKY): +16.12. STANFORD (vs MARYLAND): +12.93. LSU (vs NOTRE DAME): +12.84. SAN DIEGO STATE (vs NAVY): +9.85. CENTRAL FLORIDA (vs NC STATE): +9.16. LOUISIANA TECH (vs ILLINOIS): +8.77. MEMPHIS (vs BYU): +8.2 Rushing Yards Allowed (RYPG) W/L1. LOUISIANA TECH (vs ILLINOIS): +131.72. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (vs WESTERN KENTUCKY): +109.83. STANFORD (vs MARYLAND): +89.84. LOUISVILLE (vs GEORGIA): +81.85. CENTRAL FLORIDA (vs NC STATE): +78.26. TOLEDO (vs ARKANSAS STATE): +71.47. MIAMI (vs SOUTH CAROLINA): +70.9 Yards Per Rush Allowed (YPR) W/L1. UTAH STATE (vs UTEP): +1.92. LOUISIANA TECH (vs ILLINOIS): +1.83. MIAMI (vs SOUTH CAROLINA): +1.74. MISSISSIPPI STATE (vs GEORGIA TECH): +1.45. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (vs WESTERN KENTUCKY): +1.46. STANFORD (vs MARYLAND): +1.37. LOUISVILLE (vs GEORGIA): +1.2 Passing Yards Allowed (PYPG) W/L1. CLEMSON (vs OKLAHOMA): +110.72. SOUTH ALABAMA (vs BOWLING GREEN): +92.63. VIRGINIA TECH (vs CINCINNATI): +78.94. LSU (vs NOTRE DAME): +77.55. WISCONSIN (vs AUBURN): +75.06. NEBRASKA (vs USC): +71.47. FLORIDA (vs EAST CAROLINA): +68.4 Yards Per Pass Allowed (PYA) W/L1. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (vs WESTERN KENTUCKY): +2.12. LSU (vs NOTRE DAME): +1.83. TEXAS (vs ARKANSAS): +1.64. MICHIGAN STATE (vs BAYLOR): +1.55. CLEMSON (vs OKLAHOMA): +1.46. STANFORD (vs MARYLAND): +1.47. CENTRAL FLORIDA (vs NC STATE): +1.3 Total Yards Allowed (TYPG) W/L1. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (vs WESTERN KENTUCKY): +170.72. STANFORD (vs MARYLAND): +150.73. CLEMSON (vs OKLAHOMA): +122.44. VIRGINIA TECH (vs CINCINNATI): +115.65. SOUTH ALABAMA (vs BOWLING GREEN): +108.76. LOUISIANA TECH (vs ILLINOIS): +108.67. WISCONSIN (vs AUBURN): +106.0 Yards Per Play Allowed (YPP) W/L1. STANFORD (vs MARYLAND): +2.32. CLEMSON (vs OKLAHOMA): +1.83. LOUISIANA TECH (vs ILLINOIS): +1.84. W VIRGINIA (vs TEXAS A&M): +1.85. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (vs WESTERN KENTUCKY): +1.76. VIRGINIA TECH (vs CINCINNATI): +1.77. CENTRAL FLORIDA (vs NC STATE): +1.6 Turnovers Forced Per Game (TOPG) W/L1. LOUISIANA TECH (vs ILLINOIS): +1.62. HOUSTON (vs PITTSBURGH): +1.33. ARKANSAS STATE (vs TOLEDO): +1.34. FLORIDA (vs EAST CAROLINA): +1.15. WASHINGTON (vs OKLAHOMA STATE): +1.16. OHIO STATE (vs ALABAMA): +0.87. NEVADA (vs UL - LAFAYETTE): +0.8

Scoring Differential (PPG) W/L1. LOUISIANA TECH (vs ILLINOIS): +19.62. MARSHALL (vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS): +15.73. ARKANSAS (vs TEXAS): +12.44. OREGON (vs FLORIDA STATE): +12.15. WASHINGTON (vs OKLAHOMA STATE): +11.06. TCU (vs OLE MISS): +9.97. STANFORD (vs MARYLAND): +9.5 Rushing Yds Differential (RYPG) W/L1. LOUISIANA TECH (vs ILLINOIS): +165.82. BOSTON COLLEGE (vs PENN STATE): +138.43. STANFORD (vs MARYLAND): +113.84. ARKANSAS (vs TEXAS): +109.75. OREGON (vs FLORIDA STATE): +108.36. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (vs WESTERN KENTUCKY): +106.47. W VIRGINIA (vs TEXAS A&M): +106.3 Yards Per Rush Differential (YPR) W/L1. MIAMI (vs SOUTH CAROLINA): +2.52. LOUISIANA TECH (vs ILLINOIS): +2.43. OKLAHOMA (vs CLEMSON): +2.04. MARSHALL (vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS): +2.05. WISCONSIN (vs AUBURN): +2.06. UTAH STATE (vs UTEP): +1.77. BOSTON COLLEGE (vs PENN STATE): +1.7 Passing Yds Differential (PYPG) W/L1. CLEMSON (vs OKLAHOMA): +155.22. COLORADO STATE (vs UTAH): +145.73. W MICHIGAN (vs AIR FORCE): +139.84. SAN DIEGO STATE (vs NAVY): +128.25. MARSHALL (vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS): +128.06. PENN STATE (vs BOSTON COLLEGE): +122.97. EAST CAROLINA (vs FLORIDA): +117.6 Yards Per Pass Differential (PYA) W/L1. COLORADO STATE (vs UTAH): +3.02. MARSHALL (vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS): +2.93. RICE (vs FRESNO STATE): +2.84. STANFORD (vs MARYLAND): +2.45. CENTRAL FLORIDA (vs NC STATE): +2.36. BOISE STATE (vs ARIZONA): +2.27. OREGON (vs FLORIDA STATE): +2.2 Total Yds Differential (TYPG) W/L1. STANFORD (vs MARYLAND): +184.82. LOUISIANA TECH (vs ILLINOIS): +152.23. MARSHALL (vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS): +152.04. BOISE STATE (vs ARIZONA): +118.15. W VIRGINIA (vs TEXAS A&M): +113.36. COLORADO STATE (vs UTAH): +111.47. EAST CAROLINA (vs FLORIDA): +101.2 Yards Per Play Differential (YPP) W/L1. STANFORD (vs MARYLAND): +2.82. LOUISIANA TECH (vs ILLINOIS): +2.33. MARSHALL (vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS): +2.14. COLORADO STATE (vs UTAH): +1.65. BOISE STATE (vs ARIZONA): +1.66. MIAMI (vs SOUTH CAROLINA): +1.47. W VIRGINIA (vs TEXAS A&M): +1.3 Turnover Differential (TODiff ) W/L1. WASHINGTON (vs OKLAHOMA STATE): +1.62. OREGON (vs FLORIDA STATE): +1.53. LOUISIANA TECH (vs ILLINOIS): +1.34. MEMPHIS (vs BYU): +1.25. N ILLINOIS (vs MARSHALL): +1.26. HOUSTON (vs PITTSBURGH): +1.17. USC (vs NEBRASKA): +1.1

Below is a listing of the top team statistical edges when compared head-to-head with their bowl game opponent. Keep track of the ATS wins and losses of the top teams in each of the various statistics to determine if any particular category stands out in terms of success.

TOP STATISTICAL EDGES

O f f E N S I v E S TAT I S T I C S D E f E N S I v E S TAT I S T I C S O f f / D E f D I f f E R E N T I A L

8 www.StatFox.com


OL Opening Line OF StatFox Outplay Factor Rating OFL Calculated Outplay Factor Rating Line Edge Difference between the Outplay Factor Rating Line and actual Opening Line W/L Keep track of winners and losers

BOWL GAME OUTPLAY fACTOR RATINGS

StatFox’s renowned Outplay Factor Ratings are a great team strength indicator: They provide a quantitative measure of how teams are outplaying—or being out-played by—their opponents. They are determined by a sophisticated formula that takes into account a team’s points for and points against as compared to how their previous opponents have fared.

NEW ORLEANS BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

201 NEVADA -1½ 28 -1

202 UL - LAFAYETTE 27 ½

NEW MEXICO BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

203 UTEP 22 4½

204 UTAH STATE -11½ 29 -7

LAS VEGAS BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

205 UTAH -5 29

206 COLORADO STATE 33 -4 9

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

207 WESTERN MICHIGAN -2½ 29 -3 ½

208 AIR FORCE 26

CAMELLIA BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

209 SOUTH ALABAMA 23 -3 4

210 BOWLING GREEN -1 20

MIAMI BEACH BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

211 BYU -1 31

212 MEMPHIS 35 -4 5

BOCA RATON BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

213 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 26

214 MARSHALL -11 44 -18 7

POINSETTIA BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

215 NAVY 31 -2 3½

216 SAN DIEGO STATE -1½ 29

BAHAMAS BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

217 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 23

218 WESTERN KENTUCKY -2½ 32 -9 ½

HAWAII BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

219 FRESNO STATE -2 19

220 RICE 24 -5 7

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

221 ILLINOIS 24

222 LOUISIANA TECH -5 39 -15 10

QUICK LANE BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

223 RUTGERS 21

224 NORTH CAROLINA -3½ 25 -4 ½

ST.PETERSBURG BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

225 NC STATE 26

226 CENTRAL FLORIDA -2½ 30 -4 1½

MILITARY BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

227 VIRGINIA TECH 33 3

228 CINCINNATI -4 34 -1

SUN BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

229 DUKE 30 6

230 ARIZONA STATE -9 33 -3

INDEPENDENCE BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

231 MIAMI FLORIDA 35 -5 6

232 SOUTH CAROLINA -1 30

PINSTRIPE BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

233 PENN STATE 29

234 BOSTON COLLEGE -3 33 -4 1

HOLIDAY BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

235 NEBRASKA 37 6

236 USC -6 37 0

LIBERTY BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

237 WEST VIRGINIA -3½ 32 -1

238 TEXAS A&M 31 2½

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

239 CLEMSON 36

240 OKLAHOMA 47 -7

TEXAS BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

241 TEXAS 27

242 ARKANSAS -5 39 -12 7

MUSIC CITY BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

243 NOTRE DAME 33

244 LSU -7½ 41 -8 ½

BELK BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

245 LOUISVILLE 38

246 GEORGIA -7 48 -10 3

FOSTER FARMS BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

247 MARYLAND 26 2

248 STANFORD -13 37 -11

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

249 MISSISSIPPI 47 1

250 TCU -3 49 -2

FIESTA BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

251 BOISE STATE 39 -3 7

252 ARIZONA -4 36

ORANGE BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

253 GEORGIA TECH 41 4

254 MISSISSIPPI STATE -7 44 -3

OUTBACK BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

255 WISCONSIN 39 4½

256 AUBURN -6½ 41 -2

COTTON BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

257 MICHIGAN STATE 45 1

258 BAYLOR -2 46 -1

CITRUS BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

259 MINNESOTA 36 4½

260 MISSOURI -5½ 37 -1

ROSE BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

261 FLORIDA STATE 42

262 OREGON -8 50 -8 0

SUGAR BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

263 OHIO STATE 53 -2 12

264 ALABAMA -10 51

ARMED FORCES BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

265 PITTSBURGH -2½ 29 -1

266 HOUSTON 28 1½

TAXSLAYER BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

267 IOWA 27

268 TENNESSEE -2½ 32 -5 2½

ALAMO BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

269 UCLA 38

270 KANSAS STATE -1½ 41 -3 1½

CACTUS BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

271 OKLAHOMA STATE 22

272 WASHINGTON -5 32 -10 5

BIRMINGHAM BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

273 EAST CAROLINA 27 ½

274 FLORIDA -8½ 35 -8

GO DADDY.COM BOWL OL OF OFL Edge W/L

275 TOLEDO -2 26

276 ARKANSAS STATE 30 -4 6

FIND THE RIGHT SHOPS...FROM THE RIGHT SOURCE!

www.osga.com

http://www.osga.com

10 www.StatFox.com

Nevada Wolfpack 33 Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns 26Forecaster

Louisiana-Lafayette enters this virtual home game with a 7-1 SU mark (5-2-1 ATS) since Oct. 1, but Nevada is 4-2 SU (5-1 ATS) away from home this year where it has outscored hosts 34 to 17 on average. The Wolf Pack are propelled by senior QB Cody Fajardo who has rushed for 100+ yards in four of his past five games. The Ragin’ Cajuns have just three turnovers in the past eight contests combined, and will run the football with RBs Elijah McGuire and Alonzo Harris (1,902 rush yards, 26 TD combined). Both schools lost to Boise State this year, but Nevada fell 51-46, while ULL was trounced 34-9.

G A M E B R E A K D O W N

STATFOX EDGE COLLEGE bOWL GuiDE 2014-15

NEW ORlEANs Bowl

SUPERDOME - NEW ORLEANS, LASATURDAY, DEC. 20, 2014; 11:00 A.M. EST

Line: NEVADA BY 1OVeR/UnDeR: 60½

lOUIsIANA- lAFAYETTENEVADA

2014 GAME lOG (8-4 sU, 6-5-1 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Southern U. W 45–6 W (-38) U (58½)September 6 vs Louisiana Tech L 48–20 L (-15½) O (58½)September 13 at Mississippi L 56–15 L (+26) O (59)September 20 at Boise State L 34–9 L (+17½) U (60)October 4 vs Georgia State W 34–31 L (-16) O (64½)October 1 at Texas State W 34–10 W (+2½) U (62)October 21 vs Arkansas State W 55–40 W (+3) O (59)November 1 vs South Alabama W 19–9 W (-7) U (57)November 8 at New Mexico State W 44–16 W (-17) U (67½)November 15 at Louisiana-Monroe W 34–27 P (-7) O (52)November 22 vs Appalachian State L 35–16 L (-8) U (62½)November 29 at Troy W 42–23 W (-9½) O (59½)

2014 TEAM sTATs (PER-GAME AVERAGEs) PPG HALF FD TOP RUSHING PASSING TOTAL

Offense (All Games) 30.6 15.8 21.4 31:17 42-229 (5.5) 18-28 188 (6.7) 70-418 (5.9)

Opponents Defensive Avg. 30.3 15.3 21.3 31:44 41-202 (4.9) 19-31 211 (6.9) 72-413 (5.7)

Offense Road Games 29.7 15.3 20.7 32:32 45-236 (5.3) 15-25 169 (6.8) 69-406 (5.8)

Defense (All Games) 27.9 14.2 20.0 28:43 36-147 (4.1) 23-34 275 (8.0) 70-422 (6.0)

Opponents Offensive Avg. 27.5 13.5 20.8 30:33 39-168 (4.3) 21-35 241 (7.0) 73-409 (5.6)

Defense Road Games 27.7 15.2 20.3 27:28 34-126 (3.7) 26-36 285 (8.0) 70-411 (5.9)

REcENT NEVADA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/15/12 NEW MEXICO vs. ARIZONA L 48–49 W (+8½) O (79½)12/24/11 HAWAII vs. SOUTHERN MISS L 17–24 P (+7) U (65)1/9/11 FIGHT HUNGER vs. BOSTON COLLEGE W 20–13 L (-7½) U (54)12/24/09 HAWAII vs. SMU L 10–45 L (-11) U (69½)

REcENT lOUIsIANA-lAFAYETTE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/21/13 NEW ORLEANS vs. TULANE W 24–21 W (pk) U (50½)12/22/12 NEW ORLEANS vs. E CAROLINA W 43–34 W (-6½) O (70)12/17/11 NEW ORLEANS vs. SAN DIEGO ST W 32–30 W (+6) O (60½)

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 7-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs S. Utah W 28–19 L (-24) U (47½)September 5 vs Washington State W 24–13 W (+3½) U (66½)September 13 at Arizona L 35–28 W (+20) U (66)September 27 at San Jose State W 21–10 W (-6½) U (55)October 4 vs Boise State L 51–46 L (+3½) O (53)October 11 vs Colorado State L 31–24 L (+2) U (64)October 18 at BYU W 42–35 W (+10) O (59)October 25 at Hawaii W 26–18 W (-3) U (54½)November 1 vs San Diego State W 30–14 W (-2½) U (49)November 15 at Air Force L 45–38 L (+3) O (53)November 22 vs Fresno State L 40–20 L (-7) U (63½)November 29 at UNLV W 49–27 W (-7) O (62½)








neVADA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) vs. awful passing defenses (allow-ing a comp. pct. of 62% or worse) over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was NEVADA 32.6, OPPONENT 38.8.

R AT I N G = * * *

T O P F O x s h E E T s . c O M

T E A M P O W E R T R E N D


s U P E R s I T U AT I O N

• Play Under - Any game involving two good rushing teams (190 to 230 YPG), after one of them allowed an average of 5.5 or more yards per carry in its last game. • The situation’s record is 26-8 over the last 5 seasons (76.5%, +17.2 units). R AT I N G = * *

www.StatFox.com 11


Texas-El Paso Miners 18 utah State Aggies 31Forecaster

UTEP RB Aaron Jones (six 100-yard rushing games in 2014) powers a strong ground game (212.7 YPG, 34th in nation) that will try to penetrate an excellent Utah State defense allowing 20.8 PPG (21st in FBS). The Aggies have lost three quarterbacks to season-ending injuries, but freshman QB Kent Myers is 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) as a starter thanks to a 69% completion rate and a ground game averaging 227 YPG when he starts. While UTEP has committed more than one turnover in a game just twice all year, Utah State has 29 takeaways in 2014.


NEW MExIcO Bowl

UNIVERSITY STADIUM - ALBUQUERQUE, NMSATURDAY, DEC. 20, 2014; 2:20 P.M. EST

Line: UTAH STATE BY 10½OVeR/UnDeR: 49

U TA h s TAT EUTEP

2014 GAME lOG (9-4 sU, 6-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 31 at Tennessee L 38–7 L (+3) U (51)September 6 vs Idaho State W 40–20 L (-37) O (52)September 13 vs Wake Forest W 36–24 L (-15½) O (45)September 20 at Arkansas State L 21–14 L (+3) U (46)October 3 at BYU W 35–20 W (+21) O (52½)October 11 vs Air Force W 34–16 W (-7) U (50½)October 18 at Colorado State L 16–13 W (+5½) U (55)October 25 vs UNLV W 34–20 L (-17) O (50)November 1 at Hawaii W 35–14 W (-3) O (41½)November 7 at Wyoming W 20–3 W (-7½) U (48)November 15 vs New Mexico W 28–21 L (-20) U (52½)November 21 vs San Jose State W 41–7 W (-14½) O (46½)November 29 at Boise State L 50–19 L (+10) O (55)








REcENT UTEP BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/18/10 NEW MEXICO vs. BYU L 24–52 L (+10½) O (51)12/21/05 GMAC vs. TOLEDO L 13–45 L (+3) U (62½)12/29/04 TEXAS vs. COLORADO L 28–33 L (+3) O (55)12/28/00 HUMANITARIAN vs. BOISE ST L 23–38 L (+9) U (66½)

REcENT UTAh sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/26/13 POINSETTA vs. N ILLINOIS W 21–14 W (-2½) U (55½)12/15/12 HUMANITARIAN vs. TOLEDO W 41–15 W (-10) U (60½)12/17/11 HUMANITARIAN vs. OHIO U L 23–24 L (pk) U (62)12/29/97 HUMANITARIAN vs. CINCINNATI L 19–35 L (+2) O (46½)

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 9-3 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at New Mexico W 31–24 W (+9½) U (56½)September 6 vs Texas Tech L 30–26 W (+21) U (65½)September 13 vs New Mexico State W 42–24 W (-10) O (55)September 27 at Kansas State L 58–28 L (+28) O (53½)October 4 at Louisiana Tech L 55–3 L (+12) O (56½)October 11 vs Old Dominion W 42–35 W (-1½) O (63½)October 25 at UTSA W 34–0 W (+14) U (47)November 1 vs Southern Miss W 35–14 W (-8½) U (55)November 8 at Western Kentucky L 35–27 W (+9½) U (69)November 15 vs North Texas W 35–17 W (-6½) O (47½)November 21 at Rice L 31–13 L (+7½) U (49)November 29 vs Middle Tennessee W 24–21 W (-2½) U (52½)








UTAH STATe is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more since 1992.

The average score was UTAH STATE 19.8, OPPONENT 31.5.

R AT I N G = * * *





• Play Under - Any non-confer-ence game against the total in which a good rushing team (190-230 YPG) is facing a good rushing defense (100-140 YPG). • The situation’s record is 51-22 over the last 5 seasons (69.9%, +26.8 units). R AT I N G = * *

12 www.StatFox.com

utah Runnin’ utes 31Colorado State Rams 30Forecaster

Utah fizzled after November (2-3 SU), but its only away loss all season was a three-point defeat to No. 15 Arizona State—the Utes won at UCLA, Stanford and Michigan. Colorado State had a nine-game win streak (7-2 ATS) snapped in the regular-season finale at Air Force, which was also the finale for head coach Jim McElwain who took the Florida job, leav-ing offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin in charge. Utes DE Nate Orchard (17.5 sacks) will try to pressure Rams star QB Garrett Grayson (3,779 pass yards, 32 TD, 6 INT), whose top WR Rashard Higgins leads FBS with 1,640 receiving yards.



lAs VEGAs Bowl

SAM BOYD STADIUM - LAS VEgAS, NVSATURDAY, DEC. 20, 2014; 3:30 P.M. EST

Line: UTAH BY 4½OVeR/UnDeR: 58½

c O l O R A D O s TAT EUTAh

2014 GAME lOG (10-2 sU, 8-4 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 29 at Colorado W 31–17 W (+2½) U (53½)September 6 at Boise State L 37–24 L (+8) O (55)September 13 vs UC Davis W 49–21 W (-22½) O (55)September 27 at Boston College W 24–21 W (+6) U (56)October 4 vs Tulsa W 42–17 W (-18) U (63)October 11 at Nevada W 31–24 W (-2) U (64)October 18 vs Utah State W 16–13 L (-5½) U (55)October 25 vs Wyoming W 45–31 L (-19½) O (54½)November 1 at San Jose State W 38–31 W (-6) O (58)November 8 vs Hawaii W 49–22 W (-20½) O (57½)November 22 vs New Mexico W 58–20 W (-21) O (65½)November 28 at Air Force L 27–24 L (-7½) U (62)








REcENT UTAh BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/31/11 SUN vs. GEORGIA TECH W 30–27 W (+1½) O (49)12/22/10 LAS VEGAS vs. BOISE ST L 3–26 L (+16) U (58)12/23/09 POINSETTA vs. CALIFORNIA W 37–27 W (+2½) O (52½)1/2/09 SUGAR vs. ALABAMA W 31–17 W (+9½) O (46½)

REcENT cOlORADO sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/21/13 NEW MEXICO vs. WASHINGTON ST W 48–45 W (+4) O (64)12/20/08 NEW MEXICO vs. FRESNO ST W 40–35 W (+1½) O (61)12/22/05 POINSETTA vs. NAVY L 30–51 L (+3) O (59)12/31/03 FIGHT HUNGER vs. BOSTON COLLEGE L 21–35 L (+2) O (52½)

2014 GAME lOG (8-4 sU, 8-4 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 28 vs Idaho State W 56–14 W (-41) O (56½)September 6 vs Fresno State W 59–27 W (-13) O (65)September 20 at Michigan W 26–10 W (+3) U (53½)September 27 vs Washington State L 28–27 L (-13½) U (60)October 4 at UCLA W 30–28 W (+13) U (64½)October 16 at Oregon State W 29–23 W (-1) U (52½)October 25 vs Southern Cal W 24–21 W (+1) U (51½)November 1 at Arizona State L 19–16 W (+6½) U (56)November 8 vs Oregon L 51–27 L (+9½) O (61½)November 15 at Stanford W 20–17 W (+10) U (41)November 22 vs Arizona L 42–10 L (-5½) U (53½)November 29 at Colorado W 38–34 L (-7) O (53)








KYLe WHiTTinGHAM is 6-23 ATS (-19.3 Units) as a favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points as the coach of UTAH.

The average score was UTAH 25.7, OPPONENT 24.8.

R AT I N G = * * * *


c O A c h I N G T R E N D



• Play Over - Games between teams with winning records where total is between 56.5 and 63 and one team is coming off upset loss to a conference rival as favorite. • The situation’s record is 28-9 over the last 5 seasons (75.7%, +18.1 units). R AT I N G = * *

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Western Michigan broncos 27Air Force Falcons 28Forecaster

These schools both made quite a turnaround this year after a combined record of 3-21 in 2013. But while Western Michigan was 6-1 ATS away from home in 2014, Air Force was only 2-4 ATS on the road. The Broncos were carried by freshman RB Jarvion Franklin, who rushed for 1,525 yards and 24 TD (second in nation). The Falcons also pounded the football for 272.2 YPG (8th in FBS) with eight players getting more than 30 carries and at least one rushing TD. Both schools have heady quarterbacks with WMU sophomore QB Zach Terrell (9.5 YPA) and AFA senior QB Kale Pearson (9.3 YPA).


2014 GAME lOG (9-3 sU, 7-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Nicholls State W 44–16 W (-27) U (69½)September 6 at Wyoming L 17–13 L (-1) U (51)September 13 at Georgia State W 48–38 L (-12) O (63½)September 27 vs Boise State W 28–14 W (+12½) U (57½)October 4 vs Navy W 30–21 W (+3) U (56)October 11 at Utah State L 34–16 L (+7) U (50½)October 18 vs New Mexico W 35–31 L (-7) O (56½)November 1 at Army W 23–6 W (-3½) U (54)November 8 at UNLV W 48–21 W (-4½) O (57)November 15 vs Nevada W 45–38 W (-3) O (53)November 21 at San Diego State L 30–14 L (+6) U (49)November 28 vs Colorado State W 27–24 W (+7½) U (62)








REcENT WEsTERN MIchIGAN BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/27/11 LITTLE CAESARS vs. PURDUE L 32–37 L (+1½) O (62½)12/30/08 TEXAS vs. RICE L 14–38 L (+2) U (73½)1/6/07 INTERNATIONAL vs. CINCINNATI L 24–27 W (+7) O (42)

REcENT AIR FORcE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/29/12 ARMED FORCES vs. RICE L 14–33 L (+1) U (61)12/28/11 EAGLE BANK vs. TOLEDO L 41–42 W (+3) O (68½)12/27/10 INDEPENDENCE vs. GEORGIA TECH W 14–7 W (-3) U (55)12/31/09 FORT WORTH vs. HOUSTON W 47–20 W (+4½) O (65½)

2014 GAME lOG (8-4 sU, 10-2 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Purdue L 43–34 L (+7) O (50½)September 13 at Idaho W 45–33 W (+3) O (57½)September 20 vs Murray State W 45–14 W (-13) U (71½)September 27 at Virginia Tech L 35–17 W (+20) O (49½)October 4 vs Toledo L 20–19 W (+5) U (61½)October 11 at Ball State W 42–38 W (+1½) O (53)October 18 at Bowling Green W 26–14 W (+3) U (67½)October 25 vs Ohio W 42–21 W (-8½) O (53)November 1 at Miami (Ohio) W 41–10 W (-6½) U (55½)November 15 vs Eastern Michigan W 51–7 W (-27½) O (0½)November 22 at Central Michigan W 32–20 W (+1) O (51½)November 28 vs Northern Illinois L 31–21 L (-8) U (58½)








AiR FORCe is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games after 2 con-secutive games of forcing 1 or 0 turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

The average score was AIR FORCE 22.3, OPPONENT 37.7.

R AT I N G = * * * *





• Play Under - Any team against the total–in a game involving two excellent passing teams (>=8.3 YPA) after 7+ games, in non-conference games. • The situation’s record is 26-6 over the last 5 seasons (81.2%, +19.4 units). R AT I N G = * * *


FAMOUs IDAhO POTATO Bowl

BRONCO STADIUM - BOISE, IDSATURDAY, DEC. 20, 2014; 5:45 P.M. EST

Line: WESTERN MICHIGAN BY 1OVeR/UnDeR: 56½

A I R F O R c EWEsTERN MIchIGAN

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South Alabama Jaguars 22bowling Green Falcons 26Forecaster

These two schools limped to the finish line with a combined 3-7 SU record after Nov. 1, with each giving up 37+ points in their final two games. South Alabama is playing in its first bowl since entering FBS in 2012 and will continue to pound the football with its 183 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC. Bowling Green has allowed 286 rushing YPG on 6.0 YPC during its three-game losing skid, but RB Travis Greene has run for 264 yards on 8.3 YPC in two games since returning from injury. Al-though Jaguars QB Brandon Bridge has NFL talent, he’s a big reason why his team has 15 turnovers in its past four games.



cAMEllIA Bowl

CRAMTON BOWL - MONTgOMERY, ALSATURDAY, DEC. 20, 2014; 9:15 P.M. EST

Line: SOUTH ALABAMA BY 2½OVeR/UnDeR: 54

B O W l I N G G R E E NsOUTh AlABAMA

2014 GAME lOG (7-6 sU, 4-8-1 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 29 at Western Kentucky L 59–31 L (-6½) O (63½)September 6 vs VMI W 48–7 W (-38½) U (63)September 13 vs Indiana W 45–42 W (+8½) O (75½)September 20 at Wisconsin L 68–17 L (+26) O (63)September 27 at Massachusetts W 47–42 L (-6) O (69½)October 4 vs Buffalo W 36–35 L (-3½) U (75½)October 11 at Ohio W 31–13 W (-1) U (66½)October 18 vs Western Michigan L 26–14 L (-3) U (67½)November 4 at Akron W 27–10 W (+3½) U (59½)November 12 vs Kent State W 30–20 L (-14½) U (55)November 19 at Toledo L 27–20 P (+7) U (59½)November 28 vs Ball State L 41–24 L (-10) O (57½)December 5 vs Northern Illinois L 51–17 L (+5½) O (63½)








ThIs WIll BE sOUTh AlABAMA’s FIRsT BOWl GAME REcENT BOWlING GREEN BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/26/13 LITTLE CAESARS vs. PITTSBURGH L 27–30 L (-6½) O (50)12/27/12 EAGLE BANK vs. SAN JOSE ST L 20–29 L (+7) O (46)12/30/09 HUMANITARIAN vs. IDAHO L 42–43 L (pk) O (69)1/6/08 GMAC vs. TULSA L 7–63 L (+6) U (76)

2014 GAME lOG (6-6 sU, 4-8 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/USeptember 6 at Kent State W 23–13 W (-2) U (53½)September 13 vs Mississippi State L 35–3 L (+15) U (55)September 20 vs Ga Southern L 28–6 L (+2½) U (58½)September 27 at Idaho W 34–10 W (-3) U (58)October 4 at Appalachian State W 47–21 W (-4) O (52½)October 18 vs Georgia State W 30–27 L (-19½) O (56½)October 24 vs Troy W 27–13 L (-16) U (54½)November 1 at Louisiana-Lafayette L 19–9 L (+7) U (57)November 8 at Arkansas State L 45–10 L (+11) O (52½)November 15 vs Texas State W 24–20 L (-5½) U (50½)November 22 at South Carolina L 37–12 L (+24) U (57)November 28 vs Navy L 42–40 W (+7½) O (54)








SOUTH ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after ATS defeats in 4 or 5 of its previous 6 games over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was S. ALA-BAMA 14.9, OPPONENT 30.9.

R AT I N G = * *





• Play Under - All games after 7+ games where the total is between 49.5 and 56 and a good offense (390-440 YPG) is facing a poor defense (390-440 YPG). • The situation’s record is 66-35 over the last 5 seasons (65.3%, +27.5 units). R AT I N G = * *

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brigham Young Cougars 25Memphis Tigers 27Forecaster

Both schools are riding high into the postseason: While BYU was a perfect 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in November with a 27.5 PPG margin, Memphis is riding a six-game win streak, the school’s longest in-season surge since 1969. Cougars back-up QB Christian Stewart has thrown for 320 YPG, 14 TD and 1 INT during the four straight wins, while Tigers QB Paxton Lynch (school record 28 total TD) has thrown for 221 YPG, 9 TD and zero interceptions during his team’s six-game win streak. BYU star WR Mitch Mathews (840 rec yards, 8 TD) suffered a con-cussion in the last game but expects to play in this matchup.


MIAMI BEAch Bowl

MARLINS PARK - MIAMI, FLMONDAY, DEC. 22, 2014; 2:00 P.M. EST

Line: MEMPHIS BY 1OVeR/UnDeR: 58

M E M P h I sBRIGhAM YOUNG

2014 GAME lOG (9-3 sU, 7-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Austin Peay W 63–0 W (-39) O (42½)September 6 at UCLA L 42–35 W (+22½) O (56½)September 20 vs Middle Tennessee W 36–17 W (-11½) U (61)September 27 at Mississippi L 24–3 L (+20) U (58½)October 4 at Cincinnati W 41–14 W (+3) U (62½)October 11 vs Houston L 28–24 L (-7½) O (48)October 25 at Southern Methodist W 48–10 W (-22) O (51½)October 31 vs Tulsa W 40–20 L (-24½) O (57)November 7 at Temple W 16–13 L (-7½) U (48½)November 15 at Tulane W 38–7 W (-8) U (49)November 22 vs South Florida W 31–20 L (-19½) O (45½)November 29 vs Connecticut W 41–10 W (-23½) O (44½)








REcENT BRIGhAM YOUNG BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/27/13 FIGHT HUNGER vs. WASHINGTON L 16–31 L (+6) U (65½)12/20/12 POINSETTA vs. SAN DIEGO ST W 23–6 W (-3) U (46)12/30/11 ARMED FORCES vs. TULSA W 24–21 W (+2½) U (59½)12/18/10 NEW MEXICO vs. UTEP W 52–24 W (-10½) O (51)

REcENT MEMPhIs BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/20/08 ST PETERSBURG vs. S FLORIDA L 14–41 L (+10½) U (56½)12/21/07 NEW ORLEANS vs. FLA ATLANTIC L 27–44 L (+3½) O (67½)12/26/05 LITTLE CAESARS vs. AKRON W 38–31 W (-4½) O (50)12/22/04 GMAC vs. BOWLING GREEN L 35–52 L (+3) O (66)

2014 GAME lOG (8-4 sU, 5-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 29 at Connecticut W 35–10 W (-15) U (54)September 6 at Texas W 41–7 W (+1) P (48)September 11 vs Houston W 33–25 L (-17) U (62½)September 20 vs Virginia W 41–33 L (-15) O (49½)October 3 vs Utah State L 35–20 L (-21) O (52½)October 9 at Central Florida L 31–24 L (+2½) O (46)October 18 vs Nevada L 42–35 L (-10) O (59)October 24 at Boise State L 55–30 L (+7) O (58)November 1 at Middle Tennessee W 27–7 W (-3) U (64½)November 15 vs UNLV W 42–23 L (-26½) O (63)November 22 vs Savannah St W 64–0 W (-59) U (74)November 29 at California W 42–35 W (+3½) O (71½)








MeMPHiS is 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) vs. good offensive teams—scoring 31 or more points per game—since 1992.

The average score was MEMPHIS 23.5, OPPONENT 29.0.

R AT I N G = *





• Play Under - Any game involving two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP) after 7+ games. • The situation’s record is 154-98 over the last 10 seasons (61.1%, +46.2 units). R AT I N G = * *

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Marshall Thundering Herd 42Northern illinois Huskies 19Forecaster

A pair of high-scoring conference champions should make for an entertaining Boca Raton Bowl. Northern Illinois posted its third 50-point game this season in a MAC Championship rout of Bowling Green; Marshall won Conference USA in a tight game with Louisiana Tech, but ranked fifth in FBS scor-ing (45.1 PPG) with balanced passing (287.8 YPG) and run-ning (275.6 YPG) attacks that are both among the nation’s top-20. While Huskies QB Drew Hare has thrown for 17 TD and only two picks in 299 pass attempts, Thundering Herd QB Rakeem Cato has thrown for 3,622 yards and 37 TD.


2014 GAME lOG (12-1 sU, 7-5-1 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Miami (Ohio) W 42–27 L (-24½) O (62)September 6 vs Rhode Island W 48–7 P (-41) U (63)September 13 vs Ohio W 44–14 W (-20½) P (58)September 20 at Akron W 48–17 W (-10½) O (60)October 4 at Old Dominion W 56–14 W (-18½) U (75)October 11 vs Middle Tennessee W 49–24 W (-24) O (68)October 18 at Florida International W 45–13 W (-21½) O (56½)October 25 vs Florida Atlantic W 35–16 L (-27½) U (65½)November 8 at Southern Miss W 63–17 W (-26½) O (63)November 15 vs Rice W 41–14 W (-21) U (66)November 22 at UAB W 23–18 L (-17½) U (69½)November 28 vs Western Kentucky L 67–66 L (-23½) O (75)December 6 vs Louisiana Tech W 26–23 L (-9) U (67½)








REcENT NORThERN IllINOIs BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/26/13 POINSETTA vs. UTAH ST L 14–21 L (+2½) U (55½)1/1/13 ORANGE vs. FLORIDA ST L 10–31 L (+14½) U (58)1/8/12 GMAC vs. ARKANSAS ST W 38–20 W (+1½) U (66)12/18/10 HUMANITARIAN vs. FRESNO ST W 40–17 W (-1½) O (56½)

REcENT MARshAll BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/27/13 EAGLE BANK vs. MARYLAND W 31–20 W (-2½) U (64)12/20/11 ST PETERSBURG vs. FL INT’L W 20–10 W (+4) U (48½)12/26/09 LITTLE CAESARS vs. OHIO U W 21–17 W (+3) U (49)12/23/04 FORT WORTH vs. CINCINNATI L 14–32 L (+2) U (54)

2014 GAME lOG (11-2 sU, 7-6 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 28 vs Presbyterian W 55–3 W (-40) U (60)September 6 at Northwestern W 23–15 W (+7½) U (59½)September 13 at UNLV W 48–34 W (-10) O (62)September 20 at Arkansas L 52–14 L (+13½) O (65)October 4 vs Kent State W 17–14 L (-26) U (59)October 11 vs Central Michigan L 34–17 L (-8) U (57)October 18 vs Miami (Ohio) W 51–41 L (-13) O (58)October 25 at Eastern Michigan W 28–17 L (-18) U (62)November 5 at Ball State W 35–21 W (-3) U (62½)November 11 vs Toledo W 27–24 L (-3½) U (62½)November 18 at Ohio W 21–14 W (-1) U (52)November 28 at Western Michigan W 31–21 W (+8) U (58½)December 5 at Bowling Green W 51–17 W (-5½) O (63½)








nORTHeRn iLLinOiS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a win by 21 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was NO. IL-LINOIS 44.3, OPPONENT 20.3.

R AT I N G = *





• Play Under - Neutral field games where the total is between 63.5 and 70 and both teams have excellent offenses averaging at least 440 total YPG. • The situation’s record is 32-8 over the last 10 seasons (80.0%, +23.2 units). R AT I N G = * * *


BOcA RATON Bowl

FAU STADIUM - BOCA RATON, FLTUESDAY, DEC. 23, 2014; 6:00 P.M. EST

Line: MARSHALL BY 10OVeR/UnDeR: 65

M A R s h A l lNORThERN IllINOIs

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Navy Midshipmen 24San Diego State Aztecs 29Forecaster

San Diego State will be playing at home when the triple-option attack of Navy pays a visit. The Aztecs were 6-0 SU this season at home, where they held visitors to a mere 12.7 PPG, and committed only three turnovers. The Midshipmen were 3-1 SU in true road games, averaging 32.3 PPG. Navy QB Keenan Reynolds entered the Army game leading all FBS signal callers in both rushing TD (20) and rushing yards (1,082). San Diego State, however, has the major defensive edge in this matchup, in addition to RB Donnel Pumphrey (19 TD), who ranks third in FBS with 1,761 rushing yards.


2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 6-5-1 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Northern Arizona W 38–7 W (-17½) U (49½)September 6 at North Carolina L 31–27 W (+14½) U (60)September 20 at Oregon State L 28–7 L (+10½) U (57)September 27 vs UNLV W 34–17 L (-18) U (56½)October 3 at Fresno State L 24–13 L (+3½) U (58½)October 10 at New Mexico W 24–14 W (-3) U (53½)October 18 vs Hawaii W 20–10 P (-10) U (49)November 1 at Nevada L 30–14 L (+2½) U (49)November 8 vs Idaho W 35–21 L (-20½) U (57)November 15 at Boise State L 38–29 W (+14) O (56½)November 21 vs Air Force W 30–14 W (-6) U (49)November 29 vs San Jose State W 38–7 W (-14½) U (47)




Offense Home Games 32.5 18.3 21.8 33:21 45-243 (5.4) 14-25 199 (8.0) 70-443 (6.3)



Defense Home Games 12.7 7.5 17.7 26:38 36-128 (3.5) 16-30 203 (6.6) 67-330 (4.9)

REcENT NAVY BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/30/13 ARMED FORCES vs. MID TENN ST W 24–6 W (-7) U (57)12/29/12 FIGHT HUNGER vs. ARIZONA ST L 28–62 L (+12) O (55)12/23/10 POINSETTA vs. SAN DIEGO ST L 14–35 L (+3) U (57½)12/31/09 TEXAS vs. MISSOURI W 35–13 W (+6½) U (54½)

REcENT sAN DIEGO sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/21/13 HUMANITARIAN vs. BUFFALO W 49–24 W (pk) O (48½)12/20/12 POINSETTA vs. BYU L 6–23 L (+3) U (46)12/17/11 NEW ORLEANS vs. LA LAFAYETTE L 30–32 L (-6) O (60½)12/23/10 POINSETTA vs. NAVY W 35–14 W (-3) U (57½)

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 5-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Ohio State L 34–17 L (+13½) U (54)September 6 at Temple W 31–24 W (-3) U (58½)September 13 at Texas State W 35–21 W (-6) U (56½)September 20 vs Rutgers L 31–24 L (-6) U (55½)September 27 vs Western Kentucky L 36–27 L (-7½) U (66½)October 4 at Air Force L 30–21 L (-3) U (56)October 11 vs VMI W 51–14 L (-38) October 25 vs San Jose State W 41–31 W (-8½) O (53½)November 1 vs Notre Dame L 49–39 W (+14) O (54½)November 15 vs Georgia Southern W 52–19 W (-3) O (60)November 28 at South Alabama W 42–40 L (-7½) O (54)December 13 vs Army W 17–10 L (-16½) U (55)








nAVY is 54-20 ATS (+32.0 Units) as a road underdog since 1992.

The average score was NAVY 23.7, OPPONENT 30.9.

R AT I N G = * * *





• Play On - Road teams that are winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in games where the line is +3 to -3. • The situation’s record is 41-17 over the last 5 seasons (70.7%, +22.3 units). R AT I N G = * *


POINsETTIA Bowl

QUALCOMM STADIUM - SAN DIEgO, CATUESDAY, DEC. 23, 2014; 9:30 P.M. EST

Line: SAN DIEGO STATE BY 2½OVeR/UnDeR: 55

sA N D I EG O s TAT ENAVY

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Central Michigan Chippewas 32Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 34Forecaster

Two schools that saved their best football for November meet in the Bahamas. Central Michigan closed out the year 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) while Western Kentucky averaged a hefty 49.8 PPG in its current four-game surge (3-1 ATS). The Chip-pewas feed RB Thomas Rawls (1,103 rush yards, 10 TD) 23.3 times per game, while the Hilltoppers trust QB Brandon Doughty (4,344 pass yards, 44 TD, 10 INT) with the football. He capped off a stellar regular season with eight TD passes in the upset of Marshall. But WKU’s defense allows 502 YPG (560 YPG on the road).



BAhAMAs Bowl

THOMAS A. ROBINSON NATIONAL STADIUM - NASSAU, BAHAMASWEDNESDAY, DEC. 24, 2014; NOON EST

Line: WESTERN KENTUCKY BY 2½OVeR/UnDeR: 66

W E s T E R N K E N T U c K Y

cENTRAl MIchIGAN

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 6-6 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 29 vs Bowling Green W 59–31 W (+6½) O (63½)September 6 at Illinois L 42–34 L (+3½) O (68)September 13 at Middle Tennessee L 50–47 L (+1) O (62½)September 27 at Navy W 36–27 W (+7½) U (66½)October 4 vs UAB L 42–39 L (-10) O (69½)October 18 at Florida Atlantic L 45–38 L (-3) O (65½)October 25 vs Old Dominion W 66–51 W (-12½) O (77)November 1 at Louisiana Tech L 59–10 L (+7½) P (69)November 8 vs UTEP W 35–27 L (-9½) U (69)November 15 vs Army W 52–24 W (-7½) O (71½)November 22 vs UTSA W 45–7 W (-10) U (55½)November 28 at Marshall W 67–66 W (+23½) O (75)








REcENT cENTRAl MIchIGAN BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/26/12 LITTLE CAESARS vs. W KENTUCKY W 24–21 W (+6) U (55½)1/6/10 GMAC vs. TROY W 44–41 L (-3½) O (63)12/26/08 LITTLE CAESARS vs. FLA ATLANTIC L 21–24 L (-7) U (70)12/26/07 LITTLE CAESARS vs. PURDUE L 48–51 W (+8) O (71½)

REcENT WEsTERN KENTUcKY BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/26/12 LITTLE CAESARS vs. C MICHIGAN L 21–24 L (-6) U (55½)

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 5-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 28 vs Chattanooga W 20–16 L (-10½) U (53½)September 6 at Purdue W 38–17 W (+3) O (53)September 13 vs Syracuse L 40–3 L (+5) U (50½)September 20 at Kansas L 24–10 L (+5½) U (45)September 27 at Toledo L 42–28 L (+10) O (59)October 4 vs Ohio W 28–10 W (-3) U (49½)October 11 at Northern Illinois W 34–17 W (+8) U (57)October 18 vs Ball State L 32–29 L (-10) O (53½)October 25 at Buffalo W 20–14 W (-3½) U (55)November 1 at Eastern Michigan W 38–7 W (-13) U (48)November 15 vs Miami (Ohio) W 34–27 L (-18½) O (54)November 22 vs Western Michigan L 32–20 L (-1) O (51½)








CenTRAL MiCHiGAn is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was C MICHI-GAN 30.4, OPPONENT 22.1.

R AT I N G = * * *





• Play Under - Neutral field bowl games where the total is between 63.5 and 70 and both teams have winning records on the season. • The situation’s record is 26-6 over the last 5 seasons (81.2%, +19.4 units). R AT I N G = * * *

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Fresno State bulldogs 28Rice Owls 31Forecaster

Sub-.500 Fresno State has four straight ATS wins as an underdog, but Rice has seven consecutive ATS victories when favored. The Bulldogs are led by the duo of mistake-prone QB Brian Burrell (2,576 pass yards, 22 TD, 16 INT) and WR Josh Harper (86 catches for 1,072 yards, 7 TD), who are trying to erase two straight ugly bowl losses for Fresno. The Owls were humiliated in the regular-season finale, but have zero turnovers in six different games in 2014. Both defenses have allowed an identical 462.3 total yards per game on the road this season, where both schools are 4-3 ATS.


2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 8-4 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Notre Dame L 48–17 L (+19½) O (52½)September 13 at Texas A&M L 38–10 W (+30½) U (70)September 20 vs Old Dominion L 45–42 L (-7) O (63½)September 27 at Southern Miss W 41–23 W (-8½) O (58½)October 4 vs Hawaii W 28–14 W (-6) U (56)October 11 at Army W 41–21 W (-2½) O (57½)October 25 vs North Texas W 41–21 W (-17) O (56½)November 1 at Florida International W 31–17 W (-6) O (45½)November 8 vs UTSA W 17–7 W (-8) U (43½)November 15 at Marshall L 41–14 L (+21) U (66)November 21 vs UTEP W 31–13 W (-7½) U (49)November 29 at Louisiana Tech L 76–31 L (+7½) O (47½)








REcENT FREsNO sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/21/13 LAS VEGAS vs. USC L 20–45 L (+4½) U (65½)12/24/12 HAWAII vs. SMU L 10–43 L (-13½) U (62½)12/18/10 HUMANITARIAN vs. N ILLINOIS L 17–40 L (+1½) O (56½)12/19/09 NEW MEXICO vs. WYOMING L 28–35 L (-10) O (54½)

REcENT RIcE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/31/13 LIBERTY vs. MISSISSIPPI ST L 7–44 L (+7) O (50½)12/29/12 ARMED FORCES vs. AIR FORCE W 33–14 W (-1) U (61)12/30/08 TEXAS vs. W MICHIGAN W 38–14 W (-2) U (73½)12/22/06 NEW ORLEANS vs. TROY ST L 17–41 L (-5) O (55)

2014 GAME lOG (6-7 sU, 7-6 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Southern Cal L 52–13 L (+18½) O (58)September 6 at Utah L 59–27 L (+13) O (65)September 13 vs Nebraska L 55–19 L (+11) O (60)September 20 vs S. Utah W 56–16 W (-19) O (61½)September 26 at New Mexico W 35–24 W (-6) U (66½)October 3 vs San Diego State W 24–13 W (-3½) U (58½)October 10 at UNLV L 30–27 L (-9½) U (65½)October 17 at Boise State L 37–27 W (+18) O (60½)November 1 vs Wyoming L 45–17 L (-15½) O (58)November 8 vs San Jose State W 38–24 W (+1) O (57½)November 22 at Nevada W 40–20 W (+7) U (63½)November 29 vs Hawaii W 28–21 L (-8½) U (60½)December 6 at Boise State L 28–14 W (+22½) U (70)








RiCe is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when coming off a game that went Over the total this season.

The average score was RICE 28.0, OPPONENT 20.0.

R AT I N G = * *





• Play Under - All games where total is between 56.5 and 63 with one team coming off a road loss and the other coming off a road loss by 28 points or more. • The situation’s record is 39-14 over the last 10 seasons (73.6%, +23.6 units). R AT I N G = * *


hAWAII Bowl

ALOHA STADIUM - HONOLULU, HIWEDNESDAY, DEC. 24, 2014; 8:00 P.M. EST

Line: RICE BY 1OVeR/UnDeR: 59

R I c EFREsNO sTATE

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illinois Fighting illini 23Louisiana Tech bulldogs 38Forecaster

Illinois became bowl-eligible with two straight SU wins as an underdog, while Louisiana Tech lost two of its final three games. The Illini are a poor rushing team (117.1 YPG, 114th in nation), but QB Wes Lunt rushed for 147 yards in the regular-season finale at Northwestern. The Bulldogs will continue to ride RB Kenneth Dixon, who has galloped for 478 yards and 10 touchdowns in the past four games to give him 21 TD for the season. Louisiana Tech leads all FBS schools with 40 forced turnovers, but Illinois has committed less than two miscues in five of its past six games.


2014 GAME lOG (8-5 sU, 10-3 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Oklahoma L 48–16 W (+33) O (56½)September 6 at Louisiana-Lafayette W 48–20 W (+15½) O (58½)September 11 at North Texas W 42–21 W (+3) O (48)September 20 vs Northwestern Stat L 30–27 L (-23) U (62½)September 27 at Auburn L 45–17 W (+32) U (64)October 4 vs Texas El Paso W 55–3 W (-12) O (56½)October 18 vs UTSA W 27–20 L (-11) O (44½)October 25 at Southern Miss W 31–20 W (-7½) U (56)November 1 vs Western Kentucky W 59–10 W (-7½) P (69)November 8 at UAB W 40–24 W (-5½) O (53½)November 22 at Old Dominion L 30–27 L (-13½) U (66)November 29 vs Rice W 76–31 W (-7½) O (47½)December 6 at Marshall L 26–23 W (+9) U (67½)








REcENT IllINOIs BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/31/11 FIGHT HUNGER vs. UCLA W 20–14 W (-3) U (45)12/29/10 TEXAS vs. BAYLOR W 38–14 W (-2) U (64½)1/1/08 ROSE vs. USC L 17–49 L (+13) O (48)1/1/02 SUGAR vs. LSU L 34–47 L (+1½) O (55½)

REcENT lOUIsIANA TEch BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/21/11 POINSETTA vs. TCU L 24–31 W (+9½) O (53)12/28/08 INDEPENDENCE vs. N ILLINOIS W 17–10 W (-2½) U (46)12/31/01 HUMANITARIAN vs. CLEMSON L 24–49 L (+6½) O (60½)

2014 GAME lOG (6-6 sU, 5-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Youngstown State W 28–17 L (-17) U (67½)September 6 vs Western Kentucky W 42–34 W (-3½) O (68)September 13 at Washington L 44–19 L (+13) U (64)September 20 vs Texas State W 42–35 L (-10½) O (62)September 27 at Nebraska L 45–14 L (+20½) O (58)October 4 vs Purdue L 38–27 L (-10½) O (53)October 11 at Wisconsin L 38–28 W (+27) O (58½)October 25 vs Minnesota W 28–24 W (+4) U (54)November 1 at Ohio State L 55–14 L (+28) O (62½)November 15 vs Iowa L 30–14 L (+5½) U (54)November 22 vs Penn State W 16–14 W (+5½) U (45)November 29 at Northwestern W 47–33 W (+7) O (52)








iLLinOiS is 21-42 ATS (-25.2 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers since 1992.

The average score was ILLINOIS 21.7, OPPONENT 26.5.

R AT I N G = *




O V E R / U N D E R T R E N D

iLLinOiS is 20-5 UNDER (+14.5 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992.

The average score was ILLINOIS 20.3, OPPONENT 21.4.

R AT I N G = * *


hEART OF DAllAs Bowl

COTTON BOWL - DALLAS, TXFRIDAY, DEC. 26, 2014; 1:00 P.M. EST

Line: LOUSIANA TECH BY 6OVeR/UnDeR: 61½

l O U I s I A N A T Ec hIllINOIs

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Rutgers Scarlet Knights 38North Carolina Tar Heels 36Forecaster

Two teams ride nice momentum into Detroit with Rutgers erasing a 25-point deficit to win at Maryland, and North Carolina finishing 4-2 (SU and ATS) in the second half of the season. The Scarlet Knights don’t have a 500-yard rusher on their roster, but junior WR Leonte Carroo (1,043 rec yards, 10 TD) averages a hefty 19.7 yards per catch. The Tar Heels got a strong season out of dual-threat QB Marquise Williams, although he threw only 3 TD passes in his final four games. Both defenses have struggled, especially on the road where Rutgers allows 40.5 PPG, while UNC surrenders 44.0 PPG.


QUIcK lANE Bowl

FORD FIELD - DETROIT, MIFRIDAY, DEC. 26, 2014; 4:30 P.M. EST

Line: NORTH CAROLINA BY 3OVeR/UnDeR: 66½

N O R T h c A R O l I N ARUTGERs

2014 GAME lOG (6-6 sU, 5-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Liberty W 56–29 L (-31) September 6 vs San Diego State W 31–27 L (-14½) U (60)September 20 at East Carolina L 70–41 L (-1½) O (66½)September 27 at Clemson L 50–35 L (+14) O (63½)October 4 vs Virginia Tech L 34–17 L (+2½) U (56½)October 11 at Notre Dame L 50–43 W (+16½) O (62½)October 18 vs Georgia Tech W 48–43 W (-2½) O (67½)October 25 at Virginia W 28–27 W (+7) U (60)November 1 at Miami L 47–20 L (+16½) U (67½)November 15 vs Pittsburgh W 40–35 W (-2½) O (67)November 20 at Duke W 45–20 W (+5) U (66½)November 29 vs North Carolina St L 35–7 L (-6½) U (70)








REcENT RUTGERs BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/28/13 PINSTRIPE vs. NOTRE DAME L 16–29 W (+14½) U (53½)12/28/12 CHAMPS SPORTS vs. VA TECH L 10–13 L (-1) U (42)12/30/11 PINSTRIPE vs. IOWA ST W 27–13 W (+1½) U (46)12/19/09 ST PETERSBURG vs. UCF W 45–24 W (-2½) O (45)

REcENT NORTh cAROlINA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/28/13 BELK vs. CINCINNATI W 39–17 W (-2½) U (60)12/26/11 INDEPENDENCE vs. MISSOURI L 24–41 L (+4½) O (54)12/30/10 MUSIC CITY vs. TENNESSEE W 30–27 W (+1) O (50)12/26/09 MEINEKE CAR CARE vs. PITT L 17–19 L (+1) U (46)

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 7-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 28 at Washington State W 41–38 W (+7½) O (61)September 6 vs Howard W 38–25 L (-38) O (56½)September 13 vs Penn State L 13–10 W (+3½) U (52½)September 20 at Navy W 31–24 W (+6) U (55½)September 27 vs Tulane W 31–6 W (-13½) U (53)October 4 vs Michigan W 26–24 L (-3) O (46)October 18 at Ohio State L 56–17 L (+21) O (63)October 25 at Nebraska L 42–24 W (+19½) O (60½)November 1 vs Wisconsin L 37–0 L (+12½) U (51)November 15 vs Indiana W 45–23 W (-8½) O (53)November 22 at Michigan State L 45–3 L (+24) U (57)November 29 at Maryland W 41–38 W (+7½) O (53)








RUTGeRS is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in road games in non- conference games since 1992.

The average score was RUTGERS 26.9, OPPONENT 26.8.

R AT I N G = *





• Play Under - Any team against the total, after allowing 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games against opponent after being outgained by 175+ total yards in their previous game.

• The situation’s record is 85-49 since 1992 (63.4%, +31.1 units). R AT I N G = * *

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North Carolina State Wolfpack 23Central Florida Knights 26Forecaster

Both schools closed out the regular season on a high with wins as 6.5-point underdogs. NC State won three of its final four games (SU and ATS) by playing turnover-free football in all three victories. UCF finished with four straight wins (SU and ATS), capped off by a pair of road victories at USF and then East Carolina on a final-play Hail Mary. Wolfpack QB Jacoby Brissett threw 22 TD and only 5 INT this season, and rushed for 498 yards, but the Knights allow a mere 17.9 PPG this season, good for ninth-best in the nation. Both teams won at USF, as NC State prevailed 49-17, and UCF won 16-0.


2014 GAME lOG (9-3 sU, 8-4 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Penn State L 26–24 L (-2) O (43½)September 13 at Missouri L 38–10 L (+10½) U (53½)September 20 vs Bethune-Cookman W 41–7 W (-23) U (50½)October 2 at Houston W 17–12 W (+2½) U (49½)October 9 vs BYU W 31–24 W (-2½) O (46)October 18 vs Tulane W 20–13 L (-17) U (44)October 25 vs Temple W 34–14 W (-6) O (47)November 1 at Connecticut L 37–29 L (-9) O (38)November 1 vs Tulsa W 31–7 W (-19) U (54)November 22 vs Southern Methodist W 53–7 W (-28½) O (48½)November 28 at South Florida W 16–0 W (-10) U (42½)December 4 at East Carolina W 32–30 W (+6½) O (55)








REcENT NORTh cAROlINA sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/31/12 MUSIC CITY vs. VANDERBILT L 24–38 L (+7½) O (54)12/27/11 BELK vs. LOUISVILLE W 31–24 W (-1½) O (44)12/28/10 CHAMPS SPORTS vs. W VIRGINIA W 23–7 W (+3) U (49½)12/29/08 PAPAJOHNS.COM vs. RUTGERS L 23–29 P (+6) U (57½)

REcENT cENTRAl FlORIDA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/1/14 FIESTA vs. BAYLOR W 52–42 W (+17) O (74½)12/21/12 ST PETERSBURG vs. BALL ST W 38–17 W (-7) U (60)12/31/10 LIBERTY vs. GEORGIA W 10–6 W (+7) U (53½)12/19/09 ST PETERSBURG vs. RUTGERS L 24–45 L (+2½) O (45)

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 7-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Ga Southern W 24–23 L (-20½) U (57½)September 6 vs Old Dominion W 46–34 L (-15½) O (65)September 13 at South Florida W 49–17 W (-2½) O (52)September 20 vs Presbyterian W 42–0 W (-41) U (58½)September 27 vs Florida State L 56–41 W (+16½) O (60)October 4 at Clemson L 41–0 L (+14) U (64)October 11 vs Boston College L 30–14 L (-2½) U (55)October 18 at Louisville L 30–18 W (+19) P (48)November 1 at Syracuse W 24–17 W (+2½) U (53)November 8 vs Georgia Tech L 56–23 L (+3) O (62½)November 15 vs Wake Forest W 42–13 W (-16½) O (44½)November 29 at North Carolina W 35–7 W (+6½) U (70)








UCF is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was UCF 38.7, OPPONENT 23.8.

R AT I N G = * * * * *





• Play Under - All non-conference games where the total is between 49.5 and 56 between two good teams (+0.6 to 1.2 YPP margin) after 7+ games. • The situation’s record is 40-10 since 1992 (80.0%, +29.0 units). R AT I N G = * * * *


sT. PETERsBURG Bowl

TROPICANA FIELD - ST. PETERSBURg, FLFRIDAY, DEC. 26, 2014; 8:00 P.M. EST

Line: CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 1½OVeR/UnDeR: 49½

c E N T R A l F l O R I DA

NORTh cAROlINA sTATE

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Virginia Tech Hokies 24 Cincinnati bearcats 28Forecaster

These schools are meeting for the second time in three seasons, as Cincinnati edged Virginia Tech 27-24 on a neutral field in 2012. Bearcats QB Gunner Kiel (3,010 pass yards, 30 TD, 11 INT) wasn’t around then, but he has led his team to seven straight wins (6-0-1 ATS) with 14 total touchdowns in that span. The Hokies have not gotten great production from QB Michael Brewer (17 TD, 14 INT), who has thrown for 300 yards just once all season. Although Virginia Tech is the supe-rior defensive team (20.4 PPG allowed), Cincinnati gives up only 21.3 PPG away from home, where it is 4-2 (SU and ATS).


2014 GAME lOG (9-3 sU, 7-4-1 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/USeptember 12 vs Toledo W 58–34 W (-9½) O (58)September 20 vs Miami (Ohio) W 31–24 L (-30) U (61½)September 27 at Ohio State L 50–28 L (+16½) O (60)October 4 vs Memphis L 41–14 L (-3) U (62½)October 11 at Miami L 55–34 L (+15½) O (65½)October 18 at Southern Methodist W 41–3 W (-12½) U (62)October 24 vs South Florida W 34–17 W (-10) U (60)October 31 at Tulane W 38–14 W (-4½) U (56½)November 13 vs East Carolina W 54–46 W (+1½) O (71½)November 22 at Connecticut W 41–0 W (-9) U (55½)November 29 at Temple W 14–6 W (-7) U (58)December 6 vs Houston W 38–31 P (-7) O (57½)








REcENT VIRGINIA TEch BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/31/13 SUN vs. UCLA L 12–42 L (+7) O (45½)12/28/12 CHAMPS SPORTS vs. RUTGERS W 13–10 W (+1) U (42)1/3/12 SUGAR vs. MICHIGAN L 20–23 P (+3) U (52)1/3/11 ORANGE vs. STANFORD L 12–40 L (+3½) U (58½)

REcENT cINcINNATI BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/28/13 BELK vs. N CAROLINA L 17–39 L (+2½) U (60)12/27/12 BELK vs. DUKE W 48–34 W (-8½) O (62½)12/31/11 LIBERTY vs. VANDERBILT W 31–24 W (+2) O (50½)1/1/10 SUGAR vs. FLORIDA L 24–51 L (+12) O (59)

2014 GAME lOG (6-6 sU, 5-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs William & Mary W 34–9 W (-23½) September 6 at Ohio State W 35–21 W (+10) O (46)September 13 vs East Carolina L 28–21 L (-10) U (54)September 20 vs Georgia Tech L 27–24 L (-7½) U (52½)September 27 vs Western Michigan W 35–17 L (-20) O (49½)October 4 at North Carolina W 34–17 W (-2½) U (56½)October 16 at Pittsburgh L 21–16 L (-1) U (45)October 23 vs Miami L 30–6 L (+2½) U (47½)November 1 vs Boston College L 33–31 L (-2½) O (40)November 15 at Duke W 17–16 W (+3½) U (47½)November 22 at Wake Forest L 6–3 L (-13½) U (38)November 28 vs Virginia W 24–20 W (+1½) O (38½)








CinCinnATi is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was CINCIN-NATI 33.6, OPPONENT 17.5.

R AT I N G = * *





• Play On - Any team (VA TECH) - average rush team (3.5-4.3 YPC) vs. poor rush defense (4.3-4.8 YPC) after 7+ games, after allow-ing 75 or less rushing yards. • The situation’s record is 25-4 over the last 5 seasons (86.2%, +20.6 units). R AT I N G = * * * *


MIlITARY Bowl

NAVY-MARINE CORPS MEMORIAL STADIUM - ANNAPOLIS, MDSATURDAY, DEC. 27, 2014; 1:00 P.M. EST

Line: CINCINNATI BY 3½OVeR/UnDeR: 51

c I N c I N N AT IVIRGINIA TEch

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Duke blue Devils 28 Arizona State Sun Devils 31Forecaster

Duke and Arizona State each enter this contest with two losses in their past three games. Both offenses can put up points: The Blue Devils are the better running team (183 rushing YPG) while the Sun Devils prefer to throw more often (276 passing YPG). It is not yet known which ASU quarter-back will be under center, Taylor Kelly or Mike Bercovici. ASU has an opportunistic defense with 14 takeaways in the past four games, but has allowed more than 30 points in each of these contests as well. Duke has held three of its past four opponents to fewer than 150 rushing yards.



sUN Bowl

SUN BOWL - EL PASO, TXSATURDAY, DEC. 27, 2014; 2:00 P.M. EST

Line: ARIZONA STATE BY 8OVeR/UnDeR: 66½

A R I Z O N A s TAT EDUKE

2014 GAME lOG (9-3 sU, 6-6 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 28 vs Weber State W 45–14 L (-48) U (65½)September 6 at New Mexico W 58–23 W (-24½) O (67)September 13 at Colorado W 38–24 L (-16) U (68)September 25 vs UCLA L 62–27 L (+3½) O (64½)October 4 at Southern Cal W 38–34 W (+12) O (67½)October 18 vs Stanford W 26–10 W (+3½) U (54)October 25 at Washington W 24–10 W (-3½) U (61)November 1 vs Utah W 19–16 L (-6½) U (56)November 8 vs Notre Dame W 55–31 W (-3) O (60½)November 15 at Oregon State L 35–27 L (-7) U (63½)November 22 vs Washington State W 52–31 W (-14½) O (71½)November 28 at Arizona L 42–35 L (+2) O (64½)








REcENT DUKE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/31/13 CHICK-FIL-A vs. TEXAS A&M L 48–52 W (+14) O (76)12/27/12 BELK vs. CINCINNATI L 34–48 L (+8½) O (62½)1/2/95 OUTBACK vs. WISCONSIN L 20–34 L (+8½) O (53)

REcENT ARIZONA sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/30/13 HOLIDAY vs. TEXAS TECH L 23–37 L (-17) U (71½)12/29/12 FIGHT HUNGER vs. NAVY W 62–28 W (-12) O (55)12/22/11 LAS VEGAS vs. BOISE ST L 24–56 L (+14) O (65)12/27/07 HOLIDAY vs. TEXAS L 34–52 L (+1) O (62½)

2014 GAME lOG (9-3 sU, 7-4-1 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Elon W 52–13 P (-39) September 6 at Troy W 34–17 L (-18) U (64)September 13 vs Kansas W 41–3 W (-11) U (57)September 20 vs Tulane W 47–13 W (-16½) O (53)September 27 at Miami L 22–10 L (+3½) U (58½)October 11 at Georgia Tech W 31–25 W (+3½) U (58½)October 18 vs Virginia W 20–13 W (-3) U (49)November 1 at Pittsburgh W 51–48 W (+3) O (52½)November 8 at Syracuse W 27–10 W (-4) U (53)November 15 vs Virginia Tech L 17–16 L (-3½) U (47½)November 20 vs North Carolina L 45–20 L (-5) U (66½)November 29 vs Wake Forest W 41–21 W (-19) O (45½)








DUKe is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after a game where they commit-ted fewer than 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was DUKE 30.9, OPPONENT 21.5.

R AT I N G = * *





• Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DUKE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. • The situation’s record is 41-14 since 1992 (74.5%, +25.6 units). R AT I N G = * * *

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Miami Florida Hurricanes 36South Carolina Gamecocks 31Forecaster

Two once-proud programs stumbling to 6-6 finishes will be spending their holidays in Shreveport, LA. Miami had unbeat-en Florida State on the ropes on Nov. 15, but relinquished a late lead that began a current three-game losing skid where it has surrendered 95 points. South Carolina dropped five of its final eight games (SU and ATS), with two of the wins com-ing versus Furman and South Alabama. Both schools have struggled away from home (Hurricanes 1-4 SU with 20.8 PPG, Gamecocks 2-3 SU with 35.2 PPG allowed) and have been hurt by turnovers with a combined 13 multi-giveaway games.


2014 GAME lOG (6-6 sU, 4-8 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 28 vs Texas A&M L 52–28 L (-9) O (60½)September 6 vs East Carolina W 33–23 L (-14½) U (64½)September 13 vs Georgia W 38–35 W (+8½) O (59½)September 20 at Vanderbilt W 48–34 L (-21½) O (51)September 27 vs Missouri L 21–20 L (-6½) U (60½)October 4 at Kentucky L 45–38 L (-4½) O (54½)October 18 vs Furman W 41–10 L (-37) U (58)October 25 at Auburn L 42–35 W (+18) O (63)November 1 vs Tennessee L 45–42 L (-5½) O (55)November 15 at Florida W 23–20 W (+6½) U (57)November 22 vs South Alabama W 37–12 W (-24) U (57)November 29 at Clemson L 35–17 L (+4½) U (53)








REcENT MIAMI FlORIDA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/28/13 CHAMPS SPORTS vs. LOUISVILLE L 9–36 L (+5½) U (60)12/31/10 SUN vs. NOTRE DAME L 17–33 L (-3) O (48)12/29/09 CHAMPS SPORTS vs. WISCONSIN L 14–20 L (-3½) U (55½)12/27/08 FIGHT HUNGER vs. CALIFORNIA L 17–24 W (+10) U (51)

REcENT sOUTh cAROlINA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/1/14 CAPITAL ONE vs. WISCONSIN W 34–24 W (pk) O (51½)1/1/13 OUTBACK vs. MICHIGAN W 33–28 L (-5½) O (47½)1/2/12 CAPITAL ONE vs. NEBRASKA W 30–13 W (-3) U (45)12/31/10 CHICK-FIL-A vs. FLORIDA ST L 17–26 L (-2) U (53½)

2014 GAME lOG (6-6 sU, 5-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/USeptember 1 at Louisville L 31–13 L (+6) U (55½)September 6 vs Florida A&M W 41–7 L (-45) U (60)September 13 vs Arkansas State W 41–20 W (-14½) O (52½)September 20 at Nebraska L 41–31 L (+8) O (54½)September 27 vs Duke W 22–10 W (-3½) U (58½)October 4 at Georgia Tech L 28–17 L (+2½) U (58)October 11 vs Cincinnati W 55–34 W (-15½) O (65½)October 23 at Virginia Tech W 30–6 W (-2½) U (47½)November 1 vs North Carolina W 47–20 W (-16½) U (67½)November 15 vs Florida State L 30–26 L (+2) U (61½)November 22 at Virginia L 30–13 L (-4) U (45)November 29 vs Pittsburgh L 35–23 L (-10½) O (56)








MiAMi is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was MIAMI 29.1, OPPONENT 30.1.

R AT I N G = * *




O V E R / U N D E R T R E N D

MiAMi is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing at least 4.75 rushing yards per carry since 1992.

The average score was MIAMI 36.8, OPPONENT 13.4.

R AT I N G = * * *


INDEPENDENcE Bowl

INDEPENDENCE STADIUM - SHREVEPORT, LASATURDAY, DEC. 27, 2014; 3:30 P.M. EST

Line: MIAMI FLORIDA BY 3OVeR/UnDeR: 61

s O U T h c A R O l I N AMIAMI FlORIDA

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Penn State Nittany Lions 16 boston College Golden Eagles 20Forecaster

Two schools looking for a program-boosting win meet at Yankee Stadium, as Penn State enters on a 2-6 SU skid, while B.C. has lost two of three. The Eagles are propelled by dual-threat QB Tyler Murphy, who set an ACC record for quarter-back rushing yards (1,079) and produced 21 total TD, but also 10 picks. Murphy could have a hard time gaining yards on the Nittany Lions, who lead the nation in rushing defense (85 YPG allowed) and rank third in total defense (270 YPG allowed). While B.C. is 4-1 ATS with 26.6 PPG on the road, Penn State is 1-3 ATS with 15.8 PPG away from home.


2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 8-4 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Massachusetts W 30–7 W (-17) U (49)September 5 vs Pittsburgh L 30–20 L (+5½) P (50)September 13 vs Southern Cal W 37–31 W (+17) O (58)September 20 vs Maine W 40–10 W (-23½) O (46½)September 27 vs Colorado State L 24–21 L (-6) U (56)October 11 at North Carolina St W 30–14 W (+2½) U (55)October 18 vs Clemson L 17–13 W (+5½) U (45½)October 25 at Wake Forest W 23–17 L (-13½) U (40½)November 1 at Virginia Tech W 33–31 W (+2½) O (40)November 8 vs Louisville L 38–19 L (+3) O (45½)November 22 at Florida State L 20–17 W (+16½) U (57½)November 29 vs Syracuse W 28–7 W (-11) U (45)








REcENT PENN sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/2/12 TICKET CITY vs. HOUSTON L 14–30 L (+6½) U (56)1/1/11 OUTBACK vs. FLORIDA L 24–37 L (+7) O (47½)1/1/10 CAPITAL ONE vs. LSU W 19–17 W (+2) U (40)1/1/09 ROSE vs. USC L 24–38 L (+10) O (44½)

REcENT BOsTON cOllEGE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/31/13 INDEPENDENCE vs. ARIZONA L 19–42 L (+7) O (57½)1/9/11 FIGHT HUNGER vs. NEVADA L 13–20 W (+7½) U (54)12/26/09 FIGHT HUNGER vs. USC L 13–24 L (+7½) U (45)12/31/08 MUSIC CITY vs. VANDERBILT L 14–16 L (-5) U (40)

2014 GAME lOG (6-6 sU, 5-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Central Florida W 26–24 W (+2) O (43½)September 6 vs Akron W 21–3 W (-14) U (51)September 13 at Rutgers W 13–10 L (-3½) U (52½)September 20 vs Massachusetts W 48–7 W (-27) O (47½)September 27 vs Northwestern L 29–6 L (-10) U (46½)October 11 at Michigan L 18–13 L (+2½) U (42½)October 25 vs Ohio State L 31–24 W (+13½) O (53)November 1 vs Maryland L 20–19 L (-3) U (44)November 8 at Indiana W 13–7 L (-6½) U (44½)November 15 vs Temple W 30–13 W (-11) O (40½)November 22 at Illinois L 16–14 L (-5½) U (45)November 29 vs Michigan State L 34–10 L (+13) O (43½)








Penn STATe is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was PENN STATE 17.6, OPPONENT 24.0.

R AT I N G = * * *





• Play Over - Games where total is 42 or less in which one team rushed for 75 or less yards in its last game and other allowed 125 or less rush yards in 2 straight games. • The situation’s record is 41-17 over the last 10 seasons (70.7%, +22.3 units). R AT I N G = * *


PINsTRIPE Bowl

YANKEE STADIUM - BRONX, NYSATURDAY, DEC. 27, 2014; 4:30 P.M. EST

Line: BOSTON COLLEGE BY 2½OVeR/UnDeR: 40

B O s T O N c O l l EG EPENN sTATE

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Nebraska Cornhuskers 32Southern California Trojans 29Forecaster

Nebraska will be playing under Barney Cotton, who served as run game coordinator and tight ends coach under Bo Pelini—Pelini was fired after finishing on a 1-4 ATS skid. USC is 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) in its past seven contests, but losses at Utah and UCLA ended its Pac-12 title hopes. There is firepower here, with the Huskers’ offense revolving around RB Ameer Abdul-lah (1,523 rush yards, 18 TD) and the Trojans’ around QB Cody Kessler (3,505 pass yards, 36 TD, 4 INT). Nebraska has com-mitted multiple turnovers in eight of nine games, while USC has multiple takeaways in five of the past six contests.


hOlIDAY Bowl

QUALCOMM STADIUM - SAN DIEgO, CASATURDAY, DEC. 27, 2014; 8:00 P.M. EST

Line: SOUTHER CALIFORNIA BY 6½OVeR/UnDeR: 61½

s O U T h E R N c A l I F O R N I ANEBRAsKA

2014 GAME lOG (8-4 sU, 7-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Fresno State W 52–13 W (-18½) O (58)September 6 at Stanford W 13–10 W (+3) U (53)September 13 at Boston College L 37–31 L (-17) O (58)September 27 vs Oregon State W 35–10 W (-7) U (56)October 4 vs Arizona State L 38–34 L (-12) O (67½)October 11 at Arizona W 28–26 W (+1½) U (66)October 18 vs Colorado W 56–28 W (-19) O (59½)October 25 at Utah L 24–21 L (-1) U (51½)November 1 at Washington State W 44–17 W (-7½) U (68)November 13 vs California W 38–30 L (-14) U (72)November 22 at UCLA L 38–20 L (+3½) U (62)November 29 vs Notre Dame W 49–14 W (-5½) P (63)








REcENT NEBRAsKA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/1/14 GATOR vs. GEORGIA W 24–19 W (+9½) U (60)1/1/13 CAPITAL ONE vs. GEORGIA L 31–45 L (+9½) O (61½)1/2/12 CAPITAL ONE vs. S CAROLINA L 13–30 L (+3) U (45)12/30/10 HOLIDAY vs. WASHINGTON L 7–19 L (-12) U (55)

REcENT sOUThERN cAlIFORNIA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/21/13 LAS VEGAS vs. FRESNO ST W 45–20 W (-4½) U (65½)12/31/12 SUN vs. GEORGIA TECH L 7–21 L (-7) U (63½)12/26/09 FIGHT HUNGER vs. BOSTON COLL. W 24–13 W (-7½) U (45)1/1/09 ROSE vs. PENN ST W 38–24 W (-10) O (44½)

2014 GAME lOG (9-3 sU, 7-4-1 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Florida Atlantic W 55–7 W (-20) O (51)September 6 vs McNeese State W 31–24 L (-35½) U (66)September 13 at Fresno State W 55–19 W (-11) O (60)September 20 vs Miami W 41–31 W (-8) O (54½)September 27 vs Illinois W 45–14 W (-20½) O (58)October 4 at Michigan State L 27–22 W (+8½) U (51½)October 18 at Northwestern W 38–17 W (-6½) O (54½)October 25 vs Rutgers W 42–24 L (-19½) O (60½)November 1 vs Purdue W 35–14 P (-21) U (58½)November 15 at Wisconsin L 59–24 L (+5) O (55½)November 22 vs Minnesota L 28–24 L (-8½) O (51½)November 28 at Iowa W 37–34 W (+1) O (53)








neBRASKA is 25-6 ATS (+18.4 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.

The average score was NEBRAS-KA 38.4, OPPONENT 21.4.

R AT I N G = * * *





• Play Under - Any non- conference game between two major FBS teams involving two good teams (+0.6-1.2 YPP margin) after 7+ games. • The situation’s record is 76-36 since 1992 (67.9%, +36.4 units). R AT I N G = * * *

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West Virginia Mountaineers 32Texas A&M Aggies 34Forecaster

While West Virginia went 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) in November, Texas A&M dropped five of its final seven games SU and was 1-7 ATS in its final eight contests. The Mountaineers love to air out the football with 314.6 passing YPG (9th in nation), thanks to star WR Kevin White (1,318 rec yards, 9 TD). QB Clint Trickett (3,285 pass yards, 18 TD) missed the season finale with a concussion but is expected to be cleared in time to play in this bowl. Texas A&M has averaged 306.4 YPG (12th in FBS), with freshman Kyle Allen tossing 8 TDs over his past three games.



lIBERTY Bowl

LIBERTY BOWL MEMORIAL STADIUM - MEMPHIS, TNMONDAY, DEC. 29, 2014; 2:00 P.M. EST

Line: WEST VIRGINIA BY 3½OVeR/UnDeR: 66½

T E x As A& MWEsT VIRGINIA

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 4-8 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 28 at South Carolina W 52–28 W (+9) O (60½)September 6 vs Lamar W 73–3 W (-47) U (76½)September 13 vs Rice W 38–10 L (-30½) U (70)September 20 at Southern Methodist W 58–6 W (-35) O (60)September 27 vs Arkansas W 35–28 L (-7½) U (72)October 4 at Mississippi State L 48–31 L (+3) O (72)October 11 vs Mississippi L 35–20 L (-2½) U (64)October 18 at Alabama L 59–0 L (+11½) U (62½)November 1 vs Louisiana-Monroe W 21–16 L (-32) U (61)November 8 at Auburn W 41–38 W (+23½) O (68½)November 15 vs Missouri L 34–27 L (-3½) O (55½)November 27 vs LSU L 23–17 L (+3) U (53)








REcENT WEsT VIRGINIA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/29/12 PINSTRIPE vs. SYRACUSE L 14–38 L (-4) U (70)1/4/12 ORANGE vs. CLEMSON W 70–33 W (+3) O (64½)12/28/10 CHAMPS SPORTS vs. NC STATE L 7–23 L (-3) U (49½)1/1/10 GATOR vs. FLORIDA ST L 21–33 L (-3) U (56)

REcENT TExAs A&M BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/31/13 CHICK-FIL-A vs. DUKE W 52–48 L (-14) O (76)1/4/13 COTTON vs. OKLAHOMA W 41–13 W (-3) U (72½)12/31/11 TEXAS vs. NORTHWESTERN W 33–22 W (-9½) U (68½)1/7/11 COTTON vs. LSU L 24–41 L (+1½) O (48½)

2014 GAME lOG (8-4 sU, 7-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Fresno State W 52–13 W (-18½) O (58)September 6 at Stanford W 13–10 W (+3) U (53)September 13 at Boston College L 37–31 L (-17) O (58)September 27 vs Oregon State W 35–10 W (-7) U (56)October 4 vs Arizona State L 38–34 L (-12) O (67½)October 11 at Arizona W 28–26 W (+1½) U (66)October 18 vs Colorado W 56–28 W (-19) O (59½)October 25 at Utah L 24–21 L (-1) U (51½)November 1 at Washington State W 44–17 W (-7½) U (68)November 13 vs California W 38–30 L (-14) U (72)November 22 at UCLA L 38–20 L (+3½) U (62)November 29 vs Notre Dame W 49–14 W (-5½) P (63)








TeXAS A&M is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was TEXAS A&M 31.2, OPPONENT 36.8.

R AT I N G = * * *





• Play Under - Non-conference games on a neutral field where the total is between 63.5 and 70 and both teams are average on defense (21-28 PPG). • The situation’s record is 24-2 over the last 10 seasons (92.3%, +21.8 units). R AT I N G = * * * *

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Clemson Tigers 22Oklahoma Sooners 27Forecaster

Both participants in this bowl could be without their start-ing quarterbacks. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson (14 TD, 2 INT) is questionable with a knee injury, while Oklahoma QB Trevor Knight (14 TD, 9 INT) has a neck injury, and his top RB Samaje Perine (1,579 rush yards, 21 TD) is questionable with an injured ankle. The Tigers have allowed only 17.6 PPG this season (7th in FBS), but the Sooners average 38.9 PPG on offense (11th in nation), including 43.7 PPG in non-home games. Both teams have been poor wagers since October, as both schools are 2-6 ATS in their final eight games.


RUssEll AThlETIc Bowl

FLORIDA CITRUS BOWL - ORLANDO, FLMONDAY, DEC. 29, 2014; 5:30 P.M. EST

Line: NO LINEOVeR/UnDeR: NO LINE

O K l A h O M AclEMsON

2014 GAME lOG (8-4 sU, 5-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Louisiana Tech W 48–16 L (-33) O (56½)September 6 at Tulsa W 52–7 W (-24) O (57½)September 13 vs Tennessee W 34–10 W (-21) U (58½)September 20 at West Virginia W 45–33 W (-8½) O (66)October 4 at TCU L 37–33 L (-3½) O (57)October 11 vs Texas W 31–26 L (-16½) O (44½)October 18 vs Kansas State L 31–30 L (-7) O (53½)November 1 at Iowa State W 59–14 W (-15½) O (61½)November 8 vs Baylor L 48–14 L (-5½) U (68)November 15 at Texas Tech W 42–30 L (-14) O (65)November 22 vs Kansas W 44–7 W (-26) U (55)December 6 vs Oklahoma State L 38–35 L (-19½) O (57½)








REcENT clEMsON BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/3/14 ORANGE vs. OHIO ST W 40–35 W (+2½) O (71½)12/31/12 CHICK-FIL-A vs. LSU W 25–24 W (+5½) U (58)1/4/12 ORANGE vs. W VIRGINIA L 33–70 L (-3) O (64½)12/31/10 MEINEKE CAR CARE vs. S FLORIDA L 26–31 L (-5) O (40½)

REcENT OKlAhOMA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/2/14 SUGAR vs. ALABAMA W 45–31 W (+16½) O (51½)1/4/13 COTTON vs. TEXAS A&M L 13–41 L (+3) U (72½)12/30/11 INSIGHT vs. IOWA W 31–14 W (-13½) U (58)1/1/11 FIESTA vs. CONNECTICUT W 48–20 W (-16) O (53½)

2014 GAME lOG (9-3 sU, 5-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Georgia L 45–21 L (+9½) O (55½)September 6 vs South Carolina St W 73–7 W (-34) O (58)September 20 at Florida State L 23–17 W (+9½) U (55)September 27 vs North Carolina W 50–35 W (-14) O (63½)October 4 vs North Carolina St W 41–0 W (-14) U (64)October 11 vs Louisville W 23–17 L (-8½) U (46½)October 18 at Boston College W 17–13 L (-5½) U (45½)October 25 vs Syracuse W 16–6 L (-16½) U (46½)November 6 at Wake Forest W 34–20 L (-21) O (42½)November 15 at Georgia Tech L 28–6 L (-2) U (57)November 22 vs Georgia State W 28–0 L (-39½) U (57½)November 29 vs South Carolina W 35–17 W (-4½) U (53)








• Play Against - Any team (OKLAHOMA) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points. • The situation’s record is 91-52 over the last 5 seasons (63.6%, +33.8 units). R AT I N G = * *





• Play Against - Any team (OKLAHOMA) - off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more. • The situation’s record is 47-19 over the last 5 seasons (71.2%, +26.1 units). R AT I N G = * *

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Texas Longhorns 19 Arkansas Razorbacks 28Forecaster

Two big-name programs try to finish the 2014 campaign with a winning record. Both defenses have stood tall at times this year, with Arkansas holding seven teams to 17 points or fewer, and Texas limiting five teams to 16 points or fewer. The Razorbacks love to run the football with their two 1,000-yard backs in Jonathan Williams (11 TD) and Alex Collins (12 TD), while Longhorns QB Tyrone Swoopes (13 TD, 10 INT) tries to feed top WR John Harris (1,015 rec yards, 7 TD). Arkansas has 12 giveaways in its six defeats while Texas has 15 turnovers in its half-dozen losses this year.



TExAs Bowl

NRg STADIUM - HOUSTON, TXMONDAY, DEC. 29, 2014; 9:00 P.M. EST

Line: ARKANSAS BY 6OVeR/UnDeR: 45½

A R K A N sAsTExAs

2014 GAME lOG (6-6 sU, 9-3 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Auburn L 45–21 L (+17½) O (56)September 6 vs Nicholls State W 73–7 W (-41½) O (64)September 13 at Texas Tech W 49–28 W (+0) O (66)September 20 vs Northern Illinois W 52–14 W (-13½) O (65)September 27 at Texas A&M L 35–28 W (+7½) U (72)October 11 vs Alabama L 14–13 W (+9) U (53½)October 18 vs Georgia L 45–32 L (+3) O (53½)October 25 vs UAB W 45–17 W (-24½) O (60½)November 1 at Mississippi State L 17–10 W (+10) U (55½)November 15 vs LSU W 17–0 W (-1½) U (45)November 22 vs Mississippi W 30–0 W (+3) U (46)November 28 at Missouri L 21–14 L (-2½) U (43)








REcENT TExAs BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/30/13 ALAMO vs. OREGON L 7–30 L (+15½) U (68)12/29/12 ALAMO vs. OREGON ST W 31–27 W (+3) O (56)12/28/11 HOLIDAY vs. CALIFORNIA W 21–10 W (-3) U (48)1/7/10 BCS TITLE GAME vs. ALABAMA L 21–37 L (+3½) O (44½)

REcENT ARKANsAs BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/6/12 COTTON vs. KANSAS ST W 29–16 W (-9) U (65)1/4/11 SUGAR vs. OHIO ST L 26–31 L (+3) U (57½)1/2/10 LIBERTY vs. E CAROLINA W 20–17 L (-7½) U (60)1/1/08 COTTON vs. MISSOURI L 7–38 L (+4) U (68½)

2014 GAME lOG (6-6 sU, 7-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs North Texas W 38–7 W (-20½) U (47½)September 6 vs BYU L 41–7 L (-1) P (48)September 13 vs UCLA L 20–17 W (+8½) U (50)September 27 at Kansas W 23–0 W (-10½) U (42)October 4 vs Baylor L 28–7 L (+14) U (58)October 11 at Oklahoma L 31–26 W (+16½) O (44½)October 18 vs Iowa State W 48–45 L (-10½) O (45½)October 25 at Kansas State L 23–0 L (+9½) U (47½)November 1 at Texas Tech W 34–13 W (-4) U (57)November 8 vs West Virginia W 33–16 W (+3) U (51)November 15 at Oklahoma State W 28–7 W (-1) U (46½)November 27 vs TCU L 48–10 L (+4½) O (53½)








ARKAnSAS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992.

The average score was ARKAN-SAS 38.6, OPPONENT 20.6.

R AT I N G = * *





• Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - an average of-fensive team (21-28 PPG) vs. good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. • The situation’s record is 50-16 since 1992 (75.8%, +32.4 units). R AT I N G = * * * *

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Notre Dame Fighting irish 25Louisiana State Tigers 28Forecaster

Once a playoff contender, Notre Dame limps in having lost four in a row and five of six SU, as well as five straight ATS. In the regular-season finale, a 49-14 loss at USC, QB Ever-ett Golson was benched in favor of Malik Zaire, as the Irish turned it over 12 times during their four-game slide. They’ve also allowed 30-plus points in seven straight games. LSU relies on defense, as they held their last five SEC opponents, including two top-five teams, to under 21 points. Their run-ning game keys the offense, but the Tigers were held to less than 100 rush yards in each of their last two games.


MUsIc cITY Bowl

LP FIELD - NASHVILLE, TNTUESDAY, DEC. 30, 2014; 3:00 P.M. EST

Line: LOUISIANA STATE BY 7½OVeR/UnDeR: 52½

lOUIsIANA sTATENOTRE DAME

2014 GAME lOG (8-4 sU, 8-3-1 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Wisconsin W 28–24 W (-3½) O (49½)September 6 vs Sam Houston State W 56–0 W (-31½) U (66)September 13 vs Louisiana-Monroe W 31–0 W (-30½) U (49½)September 20 vs Mississippi State L 34–29 L (-7) O (48)September 27 vs New Mexico State W 63–7 W (-43) O (57½)October 4 at Auburn L 41–7 L (+7) U (55½)October 11 at Florida W 30–27 W (-2½) O (44)October 18 vs Kentucky W 41–3 W (-11½) U (49½)October 25 vs Mississippi W 10–7 W (+3½) U (45)November 8 vs Alabama L 20–13 P (+7) U (46½)November 15 at Arkansas L 17–0 L (+1½) U (45)November 27 at Texas A&M W 23–17 W (-3) U (53)








REcENT NOTRE DAME BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/28/13 PINSTRIPE vs. RUTGERS W 29–16 L (-14½) U (53½)1/7/13 BCS TITLE GAME vs. ALABAMA L 14–42 L (+10) O (39½)12/29/11 CHAMPS SPORTS vs. FLORIDA ST L 14–18 L (+3) U (47½)12/31/10 SUN vs. MIAMI W 33–17 W (+3) O (48)

REcENT lOUIsIANA sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/1/14 OUTBACK vs. IOWA W 21–14 L (-7½) U (48)12/31/12 CHICK-FIL-A vs. CLEMSON L 24–25 L (-5½) U (58)1/9/12 BCS TITLE GAME vs. ALABAMA L 0–21 L (+2½) U (42)1/7/11 COTTON vs. TEXAS A&M W 41–24 W (-1½) O (48½)

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 5-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Rice W 48–17 W (-19½) O (52½)September 6 vs Michigan W 31–0 W (-4) U (56)September 13 vs Purdue W 30–14 L (-30) U (60)September 27 at Syracuse W 31–15 W (-8½) U (52)October 4 vs Stanford W 17–14 W (+3) U (46)October 11 vs North Carolina W 50–43 L (-16½) O (62½)October 18 at Florida State L 31–27 W (+7) O (57)November 1 at Navy W 49–39 L (-14) O (54½)November 8 at Arizona State L 55–31 L (+3) O (60½)November 15 vs Northwestern L 43–40 L (-17) O (54)November 22 vs Louisville L 31–28 L (-2½) O (51½)November 29 at Southern Cal L 49–14 L (+5½) P (63)








LeS MiLeS is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games after playing their last game on the road as the coach of LSU.

The average score was LSU 35.1, OPPONENT 16.7.

R AT I N G = * * * *





• Play Under - Non-conference games where the total is between 49.5 and 56 involving two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP) after 7+ games. • The situation’s record is 40-10 since 1992 (80.0%, +29.0 units). R AT I N G = * * * *

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Louisville Cardinals 27Georgia bulldogs 32Forecaster

Louisville QB Reggie Bonnafon will make his third straight start. He led the Cards to big numbers in wins over Notre Dame (31 points, 409 yards of offense) and Kentucky (44 points, 472 yards), aided by the return of star WR DeVante Parker (147.0 receiving YPG). Louisville’s defense did not allow more than 173 rushing yards in any game. Two of Georgia’s SU losses came as double-digit favorites. They allowed 399 rush yards to Georgia’s Tech less than a month after allowing 418 in an upset loss to Florida. Those two losses were also the only times this season the Bulldogs had fewer than 200 rush yards.



BElK Bowl

BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM - CHARLOTTE, NCTUESDAY, DEC. 30, 2014; 6:30 P.M. EST

Line: GEORGIA BY 7OVeR/UnDeR: 56½

G EO R G I AlOUIsVIllE

2014 GAME lOG (9-3 sU, 7-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Clemson W 45–21 W (-9½) O (55½)September 13 at South Carolina L 38–35 L (-8½) O (59½)September 20 vs Troy W 66–0 W (-41½) O (64)September 27 vs Tennessee W 35–32 L (-19) O (56½)October 4 vs Vanderbilt W 44–17 L (-33) O (53)October 11 at Missouri W 34–0 W (-3) U (57)October 18 at Arkansas W 45–32 W (-3) O (53½)November 1 vs Florida L 38–20 L (-12) O (46)November 8 at Kentucky W 63–31 W (-10) O (58)November 15 vs Auburn W 34–7 W (-2½) U (71)November 22 vs Charleston Southern W 55–9 W (-43) O (58½)November 29 vs Georgia Tech L 30–24 L (-10½) U (67)








REcENT lOUIsVIllE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/28/13 CHAMPS SPORTS vs. MIAMI W 36–9 W (-5½) U (60)1/2/13 SUGAR vs. FLORIDA W 33–23 W (+14) O (47½)12/27/11 BELK vs. NC STATE L 24–31 L (+1½) O (44)12/21/10 ST PETERSBURG vs. SOUTHERN MISS W 31–28 W (-2) O (58½)

REcENT GEORGIA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/1/14 GATOR vs. NEBRASKA L 19–24 L (-9½) U (60)1/1/13 CAPITAL ONE vs. NEBRASKA W 45–31 W (-9½) O (61½)1/2/12 OUTBACK vs. MICHIGAN ST L 30–33 L (-2) O (48)12/31/10 LIBERTY vs. UCF L 6–10 L (-7) U (53½)

2014 GAME lOG (9-3 sU, 7-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/USeptember 1 vs Miami W 31–13 W (-6) U (55½)September 6 vs Murray State W 66–21 W (-35) O (66)September 13 at Virginia L 23–21 L (-4) U (44½)September 20 at Florida International W 34–3 W (-25½) U (45½)September 27 vs Wake Forest W 20–10 L (-21) U (44)October 3 at Syracuse W 28–6 W (-1½) U (46½)October 11 at Clemson L 23–17 W (+8½) U (46½)October 18 vs North Carolina St W 30–18 L (-19) P (48)October 30 vs Florida State L 42–31 L (+3½) O (51)November 8 at Boston College W 38–19 W (-3) O (45½)November 22 at Notre Dame W 31–28 W (+2½) O (51½)November 29 vs Kentucky W 44–40 L (-14) O (51½)








LOUiSViLLe is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when play-ing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was LOUIS-VILLE 29.4, OPPONENT 20.4

R AT I N G = * *





• MARK RiCHT is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) away from home against ACC opponents as the coach of GEORGIA. The average score was GEORGIA 30.4, OPPONENT 18.9. R AT I N G = * * *

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Maryland Terrapins 18Stanford Cardinal 29Forecaster

This will feel a lot like a home game for the Cardinal, who are playing about 13 miles from campus. Stanford ended the regular-season on a high note with their only win over a ranked team, 31-10 at UCLA. They were excellent defensively this season, holding nine of 12 opponents below 20 points. Maryland comes in off an upset home loss to Rutgers, a game in which they allowed 491 yards of offense to a weak opponent. The Terps will get some help back offensively though, as WR Stefon Diggs, their top playmaker, returns from a three-game absence due to a lacerated kidney.


FOsTER FARMs Bowl

LEVI’S STADIUM - SANTA CLARA, CATUESDAY, DEC. 30, 2014; 10:00 P.M. EST

Line: STANFORD BY 14OVeR/UnDeR: 48

s TA N F O R DMARYlAND

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 5-6-1 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs UC Davis W 45–0 W (-43½) September 6 vs Southern Cal L 13–10 L (-3) U (53)September 13 vs Army W 35–0 W (-29½) U (54½)September 27 at Washington W 20–13 L (-7½) U (48½)October 4 at Notre Dame L 17–14 L (-3) U (46)October 10 vs Washington State W 34–17 P (-17) U (52½)October 18 at Arizona State L 26–10 L (-3½) U (54)October 25 vs Oregon State W 38–14 W (-12½) O (42½)November 1 at Oregon L 45–16 L (+7) O (57)November 15 vs Utah L 20–17 L (-10) U (41)November 22 at California W 38–17 W (-5½) U (56)November 28 at UCLA W 31–10 W (+6) U (48½)








REcENT MARYlAND BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/27/13 EAGLE BANK vs. MARSHALL L 20–31 L (+2½) U (64)12/29/10 EAGLE BANK vs. E CAROLINA W 51–20 W (-8) O (70½)12/30/08 HUMANITARIAN vs. NEVADA W 42–35 W (+2) O (61)12/28/07 FIGHT HUNGER vs. OREGON ST L 14–21 L (+4) U (47)

REcENT sTANFORD BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/1/14 ROSE vs. MICHIGAN ST L 20–24 L (-7½) O (41½)1/1/13 ROSE vs. WISCONSIN W 20–14 W (-4) U (46½)1/2/12 FIESTA vs. OKLAHOMA ST L 38–41 W (+4½) O (73)1/3/11 ORANGE vs. VIRGINIA TECH W 40–12 W (-3½) U (58½)

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 6-6 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs James Madison W 52–7 W (-24½) O (49½)September 6 at South Florida W 24–17 L (-10½) U (52½)September 13 vs West Virginia L 40–37 L (-3) O (61)September 20 at Syracuse W 34–20 W (+1½) U (56½)September 27 at Indiana W 37–15 W (+2½) U (70)October 4 vs Ohio State L 52–24 L (+6½) O (59)October 18 vs Iowa W 38–31 W (-4) O (45½)October 25 at Wisconsin L 52–7 L (+9½) O (56½)November 1 at Penn State W 20–19 W (+3) U (44)November 15 vs Michigan State L 37–15 L (+10½) U (58)November 22 at Michigan W 23–16 W (+6) U (43)November 29 vs Rutgers L 41–38 L (-7½) O (53)








RAnDY eDSALL is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite in all games he has coached.

The average score was EDSALL 29.1, OPPONENT 25.8.

R AT I N G = * *





• Play Under - Non-conference games where total is between 42.5-49 involving two average rush teams (3.5-4.3 YPR). • The situation’s record is 34-6 over the last 10 seasons (85.0%, +27.4 units). R AT I N G = * * * *

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Mississippi Rebels 27Texas Christian Horned Frogs 26Forecaster

After being snubbed from the playoffs, TCU has something to prove against a quality SEC opponent. Led by QB Trevone Boykin, the Horned Frogs scored 30-plus points in every game this season. They were sloppy at times late in the season though, with seven giveaways over their last three games. Ole Miss allowed the fewest PPG (13.8), though they allowed 30-plus points in two of their last three SEC games. The Rebels dropped three of their last four SEC games, SU and ATS. Though they finished the year with an impressive victory over a high-powered Mississippi State team.



PEAch Bowl

gEORgIA DOME - ATLANTA, gAWEDNESDAY, DEC. 31, 2014; 12:30 P.M. EST

Line: TEXAS CHRISTIAN BY 3½OVeR/UnDeR: 56½

T E x As c h R I s T I A NMIssIssIPPI

2014 GAME lOG (11-1 sU, 10-2 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Samford W 48–14 W (-33½) O (51½)September 13 vs Minnesota W 30–7 W (-17½) U (50½)September 27 at Southern Methodist W 56–0 W (-31) O (47)October 4 vs Oklahoma W 37–33 W (+3½) O (57)October 11 at Baylor L 61–58 W (+7) O (66)October 18 vs Oklahoma State W 42–9 W (-10½) U (62)October 25 vs Texas Tech W 82–27 W (-24½) O (71½)November 1 at West Virginia W 31–30 L (-3½) U (68½)November 8 vs Kansas State W 41–20 W (-6½) O (59½)November 15 at Kansas W 34–30 L (-27½) O (55)November 27 at Texas W 48–10 W (-4½) O (53½)December 6 vs Iowa State W 55–3 W (-35) U (70)








REcENT MIssIssIPPI BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/30/13 MUSIC CITY vs. GEORGIA TECH W 25–17 W (-2½) U (55½)1/5/13 PAPAJOHNS.COM vs. PITTSBURGH W 38–17 W (-4) O (54)1/2/10 COTTON vs. OKLAHOMA ST W 21–7 W (-3½) U (51)1/2/09 COTTON vs. TEXAS TECH W 47–34 W (+4) O (66)

REcENT TExAs chRIsTIAN BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/29/12 INSIGHT vs. MICHIGAN ST L 16–17 L (-1½) U (40)12/21/11 POINSETTA vs. LOUISIANA TECH W 31–24 L (-9½) O (53)1/1/11 ROSE vs. WISCONSIN W 21–19 L (-3½) U (54½)1/4/10 FIESTA vs. BOISE ST L 10–17 L (-7½) U (54½)

2014 GAME lOG (9-3 sU, 8-4 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 28 at Boise State W 35–13 W (-9½) U (52)September 6 at Vanderbilt W 41–3 W (-18) U (49½)September 13 vs Louisiana-Lafayette W 56–15 W (-26) O (59)September 27 vs Memphis W 24–3 W (-20) U (58½)October 4 vs Alabama W 23–17 W (+4½) U (53)October 11 at Texas A&M W 35–20 W (+2½) U (64)October 18 vs Tennessee W 34–3 W (-15½) U (45½)October 25 at LSU L 10–7 L (-3½) U (45)November 1 vs Auburn L 35–31 L (-1) O (54)November 8 vs Presbyterian W 48–0 L (-52) November 22 at Arkansas L 30–0 L (-3) U (46)November 29 vs Mississippi State W 31–17 W (+2½) U (52½)








OLe MiSS is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was OLE MISS 22.6, OPPONENT 24.9.

R AT I N G = * *





• Play Under - Non-conference games in which a good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) is facing a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game). • The situation’s record is 51-22 over the last 5 seasons (69.9%, +26.8 units). R AT I N G = * *

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boise State broncos 35Arizona Wildcats 32Forecaster

This will be Boise State’s third trip to the Fiesta Bowl—the Broncos won the previous two SU despite being a touchdown-underdog each time (over Oklahoma in 2007 and TCU in ’10). The Broncos faced only one Power 5 opponent during the regular season, losing 35-13 to Ole Miss on a neutral field. Arizona comes in after a 51-13 loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 title game, despite beating Oregon in Eugene earlier in the season. The Wildcats had just 224 yards of offense in the loss. QB Anu Solomon injured his foot in the loss, but he is expected to be ready for this game.


FIEsTA Bowl

UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM - gLENDALE, AZWEDNESDAY, DEC. 31, 2014; 4:00 P.M. EST

Line: ARIZONA BY 3OVeR/UnDeR: 69½

A R I Z O N ABOIsE sTATE

2014 GAME lOG (10-3 sU, 5-8 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 29 vs UNLV W 58–13 W (-20½) O (59)September 4 at UTSA W 26–23 L (-8) U (55½)September 13 vs Nevada W 35–28 L (-20) U (66)September 20 vs California W 49–45 L (-7½) O (69½)October 2 at Oregon W 31–24 W (+21½) U (82)October 11 vs Southern Cal L 28–26 L (-1½) U (66)October 25 at Washington State W 59–37 W (-2) O (73½)November 1 at UCLA L 17–7 L (+6½) U (71)November 8 vs Colorado W 38–20 L (-18½) U (69)November 15 vs Washington W 27–26 L (-8) U (59½)November 22 at Utah W 42–10 W (+5½) U (53½)November 28 vs Arizona State W 42–35 W (-2) O (64½)December 5 at Oregon L 51–13 L (+14½) U (72½)








REcENT BOIsE sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/24/13 HAWAII vs. OREGON ST L 23–38 L (+4½) U (67)12/22/12 LAS VEGAS vs. WASHINGTON W 28–26 L (-4) O (44)12/22/11 LAS VEGAS vs. ARIZONA ST W 56–24 W (-14) O (65)12/22/10 LAS VEGAS vs. UTAH W 26–3 W (-16) U (58)

REcENT ARIZONA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/31/13 INDEPENDENCE vs. BOSTON COLLEGE W 42–19 W (-7) O (57½)12/15/12 NEW MEXICO vs. NEVADA W 49–48 L (-8½) O (79½)12/29/10 ALAMO vs. OKLAHOMA ST L 10–36 L (+4½) U (68½)12/30/09 HOLIDAY vs. NEBRASKA L 0–33 L (+2) U (42)

2014 GAME lOG (11-2 sU, 7-6 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 28 vs Mississippi L 35–13 L (+9½) U (52)September 6 vs Colorado State W 37–24 W (-8) O (55)September 13 at Connecticut W 38–21 W (-14½) O (51)September 20 vs Louisiana-Lafayette W 34–9 W (-17½) U (60)September 27 at Air Force L 28–14 L (-12½) U (57½)October 4 at Nevada W 51–46 W (-3½) O (53)October 17 vs Fresno State W 37–27 L (-18) O (60½)October 24 vs BYU W 55–30 W (-7) O (58)November 8 at New Mexico W 60–49 L (-18) O (60)November 15 vs San Diego State W 38–29 L (-14) O (56½)November 22 at Wyoming W 63–14 W (-14) O (51½)November 29 vs Utah State W 50–19 W (-10) O (55)December 6 vs Fresno State W 28–14 L (-22½) U (70)








ARiZOnA is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was ARIZONA 23.9, OPPONENT 27.7.

R AT I N G = * *





• Play Against - Any team (ARIZONA) - off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more. • The situation’s record is 47-19 over the last 5 seasons (71.2%, +26.1 units). R AT I N G = * *

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 30Mississippi State bulldogs 36Forecaster

Late-season losses at Alabama and Ole Miss cost Mississippi State a playoff spot. The Bulldogs still boast one of the nation’s best offenses, gaining 500-plus yards in eight of their 12 games. This will be a major test for their defense though, specifically stopping the run. MSU didn’t face a triple-option team all season. Tech lost the ACC title game, but beat SEC power Georgia in the regular-season finale. They had 300-plus rushing yards in both of those wins. However, Tech has rushed for 300 yards in just one of their six bowl games under Paul Johnson (1-5 SU and ATS).



ORANGE Bowl

SUN LIFE STADIUM - MIAMI, FLWEDNESDAY, DEC. 31, 2014; 8:00 P.M. EST

Line: MISSISSIPPI STATE BY 7OVeR/UnDeR: 61½

M I s s I s s I P P I s TAT EG EO R G I A T Ec h

2014 GAME lOG (10-2 sU, 7-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Southern Miss W 49–0 W (-31) U (54½)September 6 vs UAB W 47–34 L (-29) O (58)September 13 at South Alabama W 35–3 W (-15) U (55)September 20 at LSU W 34–29 W (+7) O (48)October 4 vs Texas A&M W 48–31 W (-3) O (72)October 11 vs Auburn W 38–23 W (+2½) U (61½)October 25 at Kentucky W 45–31 L (-14½) O (59)November 1 vs Arkansas W 17–10 L (-10) U (55½)November 8 vs Tennessee-Martin W 45–16 L (-45) O (57½)November 15 at Alabama L 25–20 W (+9) U (55)November 22 vs Vanderbilt W 51–0 W (-29½) U (55½)November 29 at Mississippi L 31–17 L (-2½) U (52½)








REcENT GEORGIA TEch BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/30/13 MUSIC CITY vs. OLE MISS L 17–25 L (+2½) U (55½)12/31/12 SUN vs. USC W 21–7 W (+7) U (63½)12/31/11 SUN vs. UTAH L 27–30 L (-1½) O (49)12/27/10 INDEPENDENCE vs. AIR FORCE L 7–14 L (+3) U (55)

REcENT MIssIssIPPI sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/31/13 LIBERTY vs. RICE W 44–7 W (-7) O (50½)1/1/13 GATOR vs. NORTHWESTERN L 20–34 L (+2) U (54½)12/30/11 MUSIC CITY vs. WAKE FOREST W 23–17 L (-7) U (49)1/1/11 GATOR vs. MICHIGAN W 52–14 W (-3) O (61½)

2014 GAME lOG (10-3 sU, 9-4 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Wofford W 38–19 L (-29) O (49½)September 6 at Tulane W 38–21 W (-7½) O (55½)September 13 vs Ga Southern W 42–38 L (-15½) O (55)September 20 at Virginia Tech W 27–24 W (+7½) U (52½)October 4 vs Miami W 28–17 W (-2½) U (58)October 11 vs Duke L 31–25 L (-3½) U (58½)October 18 at North Carolina L 48–43 L (+2½) O (67½)October 25 at Pittsburgh W 56–28 W (+3½) O (57½)November 1 vs Virginia W 35–10 W (-4) U (52½)November 8 at North Carolina St W 56–23 W (-3) O (62½)November 15 vs Clemson W 28–6 W (+2) U (57)November 29 at Georgia W 30–24 W (+10½) U (67)December 6 vs Florida State L 37–35 W (+3½) O (64)








GeORGiA TeCH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better this season.

The average score was GEORGIA TECH 37.6, OPPONENT 24.1.

R AT I N G = * *





• Play Under - Any non-confer-ence game involving two excellent passing teams (>=8.3 PYA) after 7+ games. • The situation’s record is 26-6 over the last 5 seasons (81.2%, +19.4 units). R AT I N G = * * *

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Wisconsin badgers 35Auburn Tigers 31Forecaster

Wisconsin will summon Barry Alvarez from the AD office to coach this game after Gary Andersen left to take the Oregon State job. Wisconsin was 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS against teams that finished the season ranked. The Badgers ran the ball well and shut down weaker Big Ten opponents, but allowed 558 yards of offense and rushed for only 71 in the Ohio State loss. Auburn struggled against the run this season, allowing 289 to Georgia and 227 to Alabama in their last two SEC games, both losses. They’ll look to outscore Wisconsin, especially now that leading receiver D’haquille Williams is healthy again.


2014 GAME lOG (8-4 sU, 4-8 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Arkansas W 45–21 W (-17½) O (56)September 6 vs San Jose State W 59–13 W (-33½) O (67)September 18 at Kansas State W 20–14 L (-7½) U (64)September 27 vs Louisiana Tech W 45–17 L (-32) U (64)October 4 vs LSU W 41–7 W (-7) U (55½)October 11 at Mississippi State L 38–23 L (-2½) U (61½)October 25 vs South Carolina W 42–35 L (-18) O (63)November 1 at Mississippi W 35–31 W (+1) O (54)November 8 vs Texas A&M L 41–38 L (-23½) O (68½)November 15 at Georgia L 34–7 L (+2½) U (71)November 22 vs Samford W 31–7 L (-37½) U (59½)November 29 at Alabama L 55–44 L (+9½) O (55)








REcENT WIscONsIN BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/1/14 CAPITAL ONE vs. S CAROLINA L 24–34 L (pk) O (51½)1/1/13 ROSE vs. STANFORD L 14–20 L (+4) U (46½)1/2/12 ROSE vs. OREGON L 38–45 L (+4) O (74)1/1/11 ROSE vs. TCU L 19–21 W (+3½) U (54½)

REcENT AUBURN BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/6/14 BCS TITLE GAME vs. FLORIDA ST L 31–34 W (+11½) U (68)12/31/11 CHICK-FIL-A vs. VIRGINIA W 43–24 W (-3) O (49½)1/10/11 BCS TITLE GAME vs. OREGON W 22–19 W (+1) U (73½)1/1/10 OUTBACK vs. NORTHWESTERN W 38–35 L (-9) O (54½)

2014 GAME lOG (10-3 sU, 5-8 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs LSU L 28–24 L (+3½) O (49½)September 6 vs Western Illinois W 37–3 L (-41½) U (53)September 20 vs Bowling Green W 68–17 W (-26) O (63)September 27 vs South Florida W 27–10 L (-33) U (50)October 4 at Northwestern L 20–14 L (-7½) U (47½)October 11 vs Illinois W 38–28 L (-27) O (58½)October 25 vs Maryland W 52–7 W (-9½) O (56½)November 1 at Rutgers W 37–0 W (-12½) U (51)November 8 at Purdue W 34–16 W (-16½) U (52)November 15 vs Nebraska W 59–24 W (-5) O (55½)November 22 at Iowa W 26–24 L (-9½) P (50)November 29 vs Minnesota W 34–24 L (-16) O (49)December 6 at Ohio State L 59–0 L (-4) O (54½)








WiSCOnSin is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards per game since 1992.

The average score was WISCON-SIN 31.5, OPPONENT 23.8.

R AT I N G = * *







OUTBAcK Bowl

RAYMOND jAMES STADIUM - TAMPA, FLTHURSDAY, JAN. 1, 2015; NOON EST

Line: AUBURN BY 6½OVeR/UnDeR: 62

AU B U R NWIscONsIN

38 www.StatFox.com

Michigan State Spartans 33baylor bears 36Forecaster

After losing to playoff teams Oregon and Ohio State during the regular season, Michigan State gets a shot at the team that was first out of the playoff picture. The Spartans were much improved offensively this season, scoring 34-plus points in each of their last seven. Baylor led the nation in PPG (48.8); the Bears were held to less than 500 yards of offense only once, a 41-27 loss at West Virginia when they committed 18 penalties. Baylor, which was much better defensively at home than on the road, allowed 712 yards of offense to Texas Tech on a neutral field two games ago.



cOTTON Bowl

AT&T STADIUM - ARLINgTON, TXTHURSDAY, JAN. 1, 2015; 12:30 P.M. EST

Line: BAYLOR BY 3OVeR/UnDeR: 72

BAY l O RMIchIGAN sTATE

2014 GAME lOG (11-1 sU, 8-4 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 31 vs Southern Methodist W 45–0 W (-32) U (75)September 6 vs Northwestern State W 70–6 W (-46½) O (72)September 12 at Buffalo W 63–21 W (-33½) O (70)September 27 at Iowa State W 49–28 W (-20½) O (72)October 4 at Texas W 28–7 W (-14) U (58)October 11 vs TCU W 61–58 L (-7) O (66)October 18 at West Virginia L 41–27 L (-8) U (80½)November 1 vs Kansas W 60–14 W (-34½) O (61)November 8 at Oklahoma W 48–14 W (+5½) U (68)November 22 vs Oklahoma State W 49–28 L (-33) O (67½)November 29 at Texas Tech W 48–46 L (-26½) O (79½)December 6 vs Kansas State W 38–27 W (-7) U (71½)








REcENT MIchIGAN sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/1/14 ROSE vs. STANFORD W 24–20 W (+7½) O (41½)12/29/12 INSIGHT vs. TCU W 17–16 W (+1½) U (40)1/2/12 OUTBACK vs. GEORGIA W 33–30 W (+2) O (48)1/1/11 CAPITAL ONE vs. ALABAMA L 7–49 L (+7½) O (50½)

REcENT BAYlOR BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/1/14 FIESTA vs. UCF L 42–52 L (-17) O (74½)12/27/12 HOLIDAY vs. UCLA W 49–26 W (+3) U (81)12/29/11 ALAMO vs. WASHINGTON W 67–56 W (-8) O (79)12/29/10 TEXAS vs. ILLINOIS L 14–38 L (+2) U (64½)

2014 GAME lOG (10-2 sU, 8-4 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 29 vs Jacksonville State W 45–7 W (-34½) O (49)September 6 at Oregon L 46–27 L (+14) O (57)September 20 vs Eastern Michigan W 73–14 W (-43½) O (53½)September 27 vs Wyoming W 56–14 W (-27½) O (47½)October 4 vs Nebraska W 27–22 L (-8½) U (51½)October 11 at Purdue W 45–31 L (-21½) O (48½)October 18 at Indiana W 56–17 W (-16) O (59½)October 25 vs Michigan W 35–11 W (-16½) O (45)November 8 vs Ohio State L 49–37 L (-4) O (55)November 15 at Maryland W 37–15 W (-10½) U (58)November 22 vs Rutgers W 45–3 W (-24) U (57)November 29 at Penn State W 34–10 W (-13) O (43½)








MiCHiGAn ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) away from home versus teams averaging 200+ rushing YPG over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was MICHI-GAN ST 29.6, OPPONENT 18.3.

R AT I N G = * *






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Minnesota Golden Gophers 22Missouri Tigers 26Forecaster

Missouri had a six-game SU winning streak snapped in a conference title game loss to Alabama. The Tigers allowed 504 yards of offense to the Tide, the first time they’d allowed 400-plus since September (star DE Shane Ray was ejected for targeting in the first half), when they lost a stunner to Indiana, at home. Minnesota lost three of its last five SU. The Gophers did manage to cover in its last four, in large part because of a plus-6 turnover margin during that span. Expect Minnesota to continue to rely heavily on its running game after attempting 30 passes in a game only once all season.


2014 GAME lOG (10-3 sU, 8-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs South Dakota State W 38–18 L (-26) O (53½)September 6 at Toledo W 49–24 W (-3½) O (61)September 13 vs Central Florida W 38–10 W (-10½) U (53½)September 20 vs Indiana L 31–27 L (-14½) U (71)September 27 at South Carolina W 21–20 W (+6½) U (60½)October 11 vs Georgia L 34–0 L (+3) U (57)October 18 at Florida W 42–13 W (+6½) O (45)October 25 vs Vanderbilt W 24–14 L (-23) U (42½)November 1 vs Kentucky W 20–10 W (-7½) U (47½)November 15 at Texas A&M W 34–27 W (+3½) O (55½)November 22 at Tennessee W 29–21 W (+5) O (48½)November 28 vs Arkansas W 21–14 W (+2½) U (43)December 6 at Alabama L 42–13 L (+14) O (49)








REcENT MINNEsOTA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/27/13 TEXAS vs. SYRACUSE L 17–21 L (-3½) U (48)12/28/12 TEXAS vs. TEXAS TECH L 31–34 W (+13) O (55½)12/31/09 INSIGHT vs. IOWA ST L 13–14 L (-1½) U (47)12/31/08 INSIGHT vs. KANSAS L 21–42 L (+9) O (58½)

REcENT MIssOURI BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/3/14 COTTON vs. OKLAHOMA ST W 41–31 W (+3) O (62)12/26/11 INDEPENDENCE vs. N CAROLINA W 41–24 W (-4½) O (54)12/28/10 INSIGHT vs. IOWA L 24–27 L (-3) O (46)12/31/09 TEXAS vs. NAVY L 13–35 L (-6½) U (54½)

2014 GAME lOG (8-4 sU, 8-4 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 28 vs Eastern Illinois W 42–20 W (-17) U (63)September 6 vs Middle Tennessee W 35–24 L (-14) O (50)September 13 at TCU L 30–7 L (+17½) U (50½)September 20 vs San Jose State W 24–7 W (-7½) U (49)September 27 at Michigan W 30–14 W (+10½) P (44)October 11 vs Northwestern W 24–17 W (-4) U (44½)October 18 vs Purdue W 39–38 L (-12) O (49)October 25 at Illinois L 28–24 L (-4) U (54)November 8 vs Iowa W 51–14 W (+1½) O (43)November 15 vs Ohio State L 31–24 W (+11½) U (55½)November 22 at Nebraska W 28–24 W (+8½) O (51½)November 29 at Wisconsin L 34–24 W (+16) O (49)








GARY PinKeL is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after a loss by 17 or more points as the coach of MISSOURI.

The average score was MISSOURI 33.9, OPPONENT 22.4.

R AT I N G = * * * *





• Play Over - Neutral field games in January where the total is between 42.5 and 49 and one of the teams has won 4 or 5 out of its last 6 games. • The situation’s record is 27-5 since 1992 (84.4%, +21.5 units). R AT I N G = * * *


cITRUs Bowl

FLORIDA CITRUS BOWL - ORLANDO, FLTHURSDAY, JAN. 1, 2015; 1:00 P.M. EST

Line: MISSOURI BY 5½OVeR/UnDeR: 48

M I s s O U R IMINNEsOTA

40 www.StatFox.com

Florida State Seminoles 34Oregon Ducks 38Forecaster

Oregon comes in after avenging its lone loss, beating Arizona 51-13 in the Pac-12 final. Since losing that regular-season game, the Ducks are 8-0 SU and ATS. During that span, QB Marcus Mariota has led the offense to 48.0 PPG and 554.3 YPG. Florida State will be an underdog for the first time in the Jameis Winston era. After 14 turnovers over their final five regular season games, the Seminoles didn’t give it away once in the ACC title game, a 37-35 win over Georgia Tech. The defense has been bend-don’t-break, allowing 400-plus yards seven times but 30-plus points only four times



ROsE Bowl

ROSE BOWL - PLAYOFF SEMIFINAL - PASADENA, CATHURSDAY, JAN. 1, 2015; 5:00 P.M. EST

Line: OREGON BY 9OVeR/UnDeR: 71

No . 2 O R EG O N

No . 3 FlORIDA sTATE

2014 GAME lOG (12-1 sU, 9-4 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs South Dakota W 62–13 L (-54) O (71½)September 6 vs Michigan State W 46–27 W (-14) O (57)September 13 vs Wyoming W 48–14 L (-42) U (63)September 20 at Washington State W 38–31 L (-21½) U (79)October 2 vs Arizona L 31–24 L (-21½) U (82)October 11 at UCLA W 42–30 W (-1½) U (74)October 18 vs Washington W 45–20 W (-21½) O (64½)October 24 at California W 59–41 W (-17½) O (78)November 1 vs Stanford W 45–16 W (-7) O (57)November 8 at Utah W 51–27 W (-9½) O (61½)November 22 vs Colorado W 44–10 W (-33) U (74)November 29 at Oregon State W 47–19 W (-20½) U (66½)December 5 vs Arizona W 51–13 W (-14½) U (72½)








REcENT FlORIDA sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/6/14 BCS TITLE GAME vs. AUBURN W 34–31 L (-11½) U (68)1/1/13 ORANGE vs. N ILLINOIS W 31–10 W (-14½) U (58)12/29/11 CHAMPS SPORTS vs. NOTRE DAME W 18–14 W (-3) U (47½)12/31/10 CHICK-FIL-A vs. S CAROLINA W 26–17 W (+2) U (53½)

REcENT OREGON BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/30/13 ALAMO vs. TEXAS W 30–7 W (-15½) U (68)1/3/13 FIESTA vs. KANSAS ST W 35–17 W (-7½) U (74)1/2/12 ROSE vs. WISCONSIN W 45–38 W (-4) O (74)1/10/11 BCS TITLE GAME vs. AUBURN L 19–22 L (-1) U (73½)

2014 GAME lOG (13-0 sU, 3-10 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Oklahoma State W 37–31 L (-18) O (64½)September 6 vs The Citadel W 37–12 L (-56½) U (64)September 20 vs Clemson W 23–17 L (-9½) U (55)September 27 at North Carolina St W 56–41 L (-16½) O (60)October 4 vs Wake Forest W 43–3 W (-37) U (55½)October 11 at Syracuse W 38–20 L (-23½) O (55½)October 18 vs Notre Dame W 31–27 L (-7) O (57)October 30 at Louisville W 42–31 W (-3½) O (51)November 8 vs Virginia W 34–20 L (-21) U (55)November 15 at Miami W 30–26 W (-2) U (61½)November 22 vs Boston College W 20–17 L (-16½) U (57½)November 29 vs Florida W 24–19 L (-7) U (53)December 6 at Georgia Tech W 37–35 L (-3½) O (64)








OReGOn is 38-16 ATS (+20.4 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.

The average score was OREGON 35.0, OPPONENT 27.7.

R AT I N G = * *



T O P AT sF O x s h E E T s . c O M


• Play On - Any team (FLA ST) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in a non-conference game between teams from major FBS conferences. • The situation’s record is 46-18 since 1992 (71.9%, +26.2 units). R AT I N G = * *

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Ohio State buckeyes 28Alabama Crimson Tide 34Forecaster

Ohio State coach Urban Meyer is familiar with Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide from his years coaching Florida. His Buckeyes are down to their third QB, with Cardale Jones set to make his second career start. The Buckeyes overwhelmed Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, amassing 558 yards in a 59-0 win. But Wisconsin’s best win on the year was Minnesota at home, while Alabama steamrolled the SEC. The Tide allowed 630 yards in a 55-44 Iron Bowl win over Auburn, but they held every other opponent to 23 points or less. They totaled 97 points in season-ending wins over Auburn and Mizzou.


2014 GAME lOG (12-1 sU, 4-8-1 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at West Virginia W 33–23 L (-22) O (53½)September 6 vs Florida Atlantic W 41–0 L (-42) U (52½)September 13 vs Southern Miss W 52–12 L (-46½) O (56)September 20 vs Florida W 42–21 W (-14) O (50½)October 4 at Mississippi L 23–17 L (-4½) U (53)October 11 at Arkansas W 14–13 L (-9) U (53½)October 18 vs Texas A&M W 59–0 W (-11½) U (62½)October 25 at Tennessee W 34–20 L (-19½) O (46)November 8 at LSU W 20–13 P (-7) U (46½)November 15 vs Mississippi State W 25–20 L (-9) U (55)November 22 vs Western Carolina W 48–14 L (-51) November 29 vs Auburn W 55–44 W (-9½) O (55)December 6 vs Missouri W 42–13 W (-14) O (49)








REcENT OhIO sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/3/14 ORANGE vs. CLEMSON L 35–40 L (-2½) O (71½)1/2/12 GATOR vs. FLORIDA L 17–24 L (+2½) U (44)1/4/11 SUGAR vs. ARKANSAS W 31–26 W (-3) U (57½)1/1/10 ROSE vs. OREGON W 26–17 W (+4½) U (51)

REcENT AlABAMA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/2/14 SUGAR vs. OKLAHOMA L 31–45 L (-16½) O (51½)1/7/13 BCS TITLE GAME vs. NOTRE DAME W 42–14 W (-10) O (39½)1/9/12 BCS TITLE GAME vs. LSU W 21–0 W (-2½) U (42)1/1/11 CAPITAL ONE vs. MICHIGAN ST W 49–7 W (-7½) O (50½)

2014 GAME lOG (12-1 sU, 8-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Navy W 34–17 W (-13½) U (54)September 6 vs Virginia Tech L 35–21 L (-10) O (46)September 13 vs Kent State W 66–0 W (-31) O (49)September 27 vs Cincinnati W 50–28 W (-16½) O (60)October 4 at Maryland W 52–24 W (-6½) O (59)October 18 vs Rutgers W 56–17 W (-21) O (63)October 25 at Penn State W 31–24 L (-13½) O (53)November 1 vs Illinois W 55–14 W (-28) O (62½)November 8 at Michigan State W 49–37 W (+4) O (55)November 15 at Minnesota W 31–24 L (-11½) U (55½)November 22 vs Indiana W 42–27 L (-35½) O (67)November 29 vs Michigan W 42–28 L (-21½) O (55)December 6 vs Wisconsin W 59–0 W (+4) O (54½)








OHiO ST is 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play since 1992.

The average score was OHIO ST 30.0, OPPONENT 21.5.

R AT I N G = * *







sUGAR Bowl

SUPERDOME - PLAYOFF SEMIFINAL - NEW ORLEANS, LATHURSDAY, JAN. 1, 2015; 8:30 P.M. EST

Line: ALABAMA BY 9½OVeR/UnDeR: 58½

No . 1 A l A BA M A

No . 4 OhIO sTATE

42 www.StatFox.com

Pittsburgh Panthers 30Houston Cougars 26Forecaster

Houston stays in-state for a bowl game after salvaging its season with a quarterback switch. After going 2-3 SU and ATS to start 2014, the Cougars turned the offense over to con-verted WR Greg Ward Jr. and went 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS the rest of the way. The offense had 425-plus yards in each of its final four games. Pitt will attempt to control the clock behind RB James Conner. The Panthers averaged 258.8 rush YPG and 5.3 YPC over the final six games of the regular season. Hous-ton has not allowed 200 rushing yards in a game since BYU gashed them for 323 in the third game of the season.



ARMED FORcEs Bowl

AMON g. CARTER STADIUM - FORT WORTH, TXFRIDAY, JAN. 2, 2015; NOON EST

Line: PITTSBURGH BY 3OVeR/UnDeR: 53½

h O U s T O NPITTsBURGh

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 6-5-1 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 29 vs UTSA L 27–7 L (-8½) U (56)September 6 vs Grambling State W 47–0 L (-49½) U (66)September 11 at BYU L 33–25 W (+17) U (62½)September 20 vs UNLV W 47–14 W (-20) U (63½)October 2 vs Central Florida L 17–12 L (-2½) U (49½)October 11 at Memphis W 28–24 W (+7½) O (48)October 17 vs Temple W 31–10 W (-9½) U (52½)November 1 at South Florida W 27–3 W (-7½) U (44½)November 8 vs Tulane L 31–24 L (-17) O (46)November 22 vs Tulsa W 38–28 L (-20) O (58)November 28 at Southern Methodist W 35–9 W (-21) U (50½)December 6 at Cincinnati L 38–31 P (+7) O (57½)








REcENT PITTsBURGh BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/26/13 LITTLE CAESARS vs. BOWLING GREEN W 30–27 W (+6½) O (50)1/5/13 PAPAJOHNS.COM vs. OLE MISS L 17–38 L (+4) O (54)1/7/12 PAPAJOHNS.COM vs. SMU L 6–28 L (-4) U (47½)1/8/11 PAPAJOHNS.COM vs. KENTUCKY W 27–10 W (-4½) U (52)

REcENT hOUsTON BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/4/14 PAPAJOHNS.COM vs. VANDERBILT L 24–41 L (+1½) O (53)1/2/12 TICKET CITY vs. PENN ST W 30–14 W (-6½) U (56)12/31/09 FORT WORTH vs. AIR FORCE L 20–47 L (-4½) O (65½)12/31/08 ARMED FORCES vs. AIR FORCE W 34–28 W (-5½) U (65)

2014 GAME lOG (6-6 sU, 6-6 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Delaware W 62–0 W (-24) O (59½)September 5 at Boston College W 30–20 W (-5½) P (50)September 13 at Florida International W 42–25 L (-25) O (47)September 20 vs Iowa L 24–20 L (-6½) U (45½)September 27 vs Akron L 21–10 L (-20½) U (51)October 4 at Virginia L 24–19 W (+5½) U (46½)October 16 vs Virginia Tech W 21–16 W (+1) U (45)October 25 vs Georgia Tech L 56–28 L (-3½) O (57½)November 1 vs Duke L 51–48 L (-3) O (52½)November 15 at North Carolina L 40–35 L (+2½) O (67)November 22 vs Syracuse W 30–7 W (-7) U (51½)November 29 at Miami W 35–23 W (+10½) O (56)








HOUSTOn is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previ-ous game over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was HOUSTON 34.0, OPPONENT 19.3.

R AT I N G = *





• Play Under - Games where the total is between 49.5 and 56 involving two good teams (outgaining opponents by 50-100 YPG) after 7+ games. • The situation’s record is 36-8 over the last 5 seasons (81.8%, +27.2 units). R AT I N G = * * * *

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iowa Hawkeyes 26Tennessee Volunteers 23Forecaster

Both of these teams ended the season on somewhat ugly notes. Iowa lost their final two and three of four SU, though the last two losses (to Wisconsin and Nebraska at home) were by a combined five points. QB Jake Rudock comes in on a high note, throwing for 311 yards against Wisconsin in the penultimate game and posting a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio over the last three. The Vols seemed to be getting on track under new QB Joshua Dobbs, but the offense crashed in the last two weeks with less than 300 yards against Missouri and Vanderbilt (both ATS losses).


TAxslAYER Bowl

EVERBANK FIELD - jACKSONVILLE, FLFRIDAY, JAN. 2, 2015; 3:20 P.M. EST

Line: TENNESSEE BY 3½OVeR/UnDeR: 51½

T E N N E s s E EIOWA

2014 GAME lOG (6-6 sU, 6-6 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 31 vs Utah State W 38–7 W (-3) U (51)September 6 vs Arkansas State W 34–19 L (-16) U (60)September 13 at Oklahoma L 34–10 L (+21) U (58½)September 27 at Georgia L 35–32 W (+19) O (56½)October 4 vs Florida L 10–9 L (-1) U (52)October 11 vs Chattanooga W 45–10 W (-25½) October 18 at Mississippi L 34–3 L (+15½) U (45½)October 25 vs Alabama L 34–20 W (+19½) O (46)November 1 at South Carolina W 45–42 W (+5½) O (55)November 15 vs Kentucky W 50–16 W (-11) O (53)November 22 vs Missouri L 29–21 L (-5) O (48½)November 29 at Vanderbilt W 24–17 L (-15) U (49½)








REcENT IOWA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/1/14 OUTBACK vs. LSU L 14–21 W (+7½) U (48)12/30/11 INSIGHT vs. OKLAHOMA L 14–31 L (+13½) U (58)12/28/10 INSIGHT vs. MISSOURI W 27–24 W (+3) O (46)1/5/10 ORANGE vs. GEORGIA TECH W 24–14 W (+6) U (51)

REcENT TENNEssEE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/30/10 MUSIC CITY vs. N CAROLINA L 27–30 L (-1) O (50)12/31/09 CHICK-FIL-A vs. VIRGINIA TECH L 14–37 L (+5) O (48)1/1/08 OUTBACK vs. WISCONSIN W 21–17 W (-2½) U (56½)1/1/07 OUTBACK vs. PENN ST L 10–20 L (-4) U (41½)

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 6-6 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Northern Iowa W 31–23 L (-17) O (40½)September 6 vs Ball State W 17–13 L (-17½) U (52)September 13 vs Iowa State L 20–17 L (-13) U (49½)September 20 at Pittsburgh W 24–20 W (+6½) U (45½)September 27 at Purdue W 24–10 W (-8) U (47)October 11 vs Indiana W 45–29 W (-3½) O (54½)October 18 at Maryland L 38–31 L (+4) O (45½)November 1 vs Northwestern W 48–7 W (-3) O (44)November 8 at Minnesota L 51–14 L (-1½) O (43)November 15 at Illinois W 30–14 W (-5½) U (54)November 22 vs Wisconsin L 26–24 W (+9½) P (50)November 28 vs Nebraska L 37–34 L (-1) O (53)








iOWA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 1 or more con-secutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was IOWA 30.2, OPPONENT 20.0.

R AT I N G = *





• Play On - Any team (TENNES-SEE) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against average rush defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in a non-conference game between teams from major FBS conferences. • The situation’s record is 46-18 since 1992 (71.9%, +26.2 units). R AT I N G = * *

44 www.StatFox.com

uCLA bruins 30Kansas State Wildcats 33Forecaster

UCLA rode a five-game SU winning streak into its regular-season finale with Stanford, but lost 31-10 at home with a chance to clinch a Pac-12 title game spot. It was the first time since the season-opener that the Bruins gained fewer than 400 yards of offense. Kansas State lost 38-27 at Baylor in its regular-season finale, but in the process became the only team to hold Baylor to fewer than 40 points in Waco this season. QB Jake Waters enters playing the best football of his career, averaging 331.3 pass YPG with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio over his last three games.



AlAMO Bowl

ALAMODOME - SAN ANTONIO, TXFRIDAY, JAN. 2, 2015; 6:45 P.M. EST

Line: KANSAS STATE BY 1½OVeR/UnDeR: 59

K A N sAs s TAT EUclA

2014 GAME lOG (9-3 sU, 8-4 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Stephen F. Austin W 55–16 L (-42) O (70½)September 6 at Iowa State W 32–28 L (-12½) O (54½)September 18 vs Auburn L 20–14 W (+7½) U (64)September 27 vs Texas El Paso W 58–28 W (-28) O (53½)October 4 vs Texas Tech W 45–13 W (-13½) U (65½)October 18 at Oklahoma W 31–30 W (+7) O (53½)October 25 vs Texas W 23–0 W (-9½) U (47½)November 1 vs Oklahoma State W 48–14 W (-13) O (53)November 8 at TCU L 41–20 L (+6½) O (59½)November 20 at West Virginia W 26–20 W (+2½) U (58½)November 29 vs Kansas W 51–13 W (-26½) O (51½)December 6 at Baylor L 38–27 L (+7) U (71½)








REcENT UclA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/31/13 SUN vs. VIRGINIA TECH W 42–12 W (-7) O (45½)12/27/12 HOLIDAY vs. BAYLOR L 26–49 L (-3) U (81)12/31/11 FIGHT HUNGER vs. ILLINOIS L 14–20 L (+3) U (45)12/29/09 EAGLE BANK vs. TEMPLE W 30–21 W (-4½) O (44)

REcENT KANsAs sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/28/13 INSIGHT vs. MICHIGAN W 31–14 W (-7) U (52½)1/3/13 FIESTA vs. OREGON L 17–35 L (+7½) U (74)1/6/12 COTTON vs. ARKANSAS L 16–29 L (+9) U (65)12/30/10 PINSTRIPE vs. SYRACUSE L 34–36 L (pk) O (48½)

2014 GAME lOG (9-3 sU, 4-8 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Virginia W 28–20 L (-18) U (50)September 6 vs Memphis W 42–35 L (-22½) O (56½)September 13 at Texas W 20–17 L (-8½) U (50)September 25 at Arizona State W 62–27 W (-3½) O (64½)October 4 vs Utah L 30–28 L (-13) U (64½)October 11 vs Oregon L 42–30 L (+1½) U (74)October 18 at California W 36–34 L (-6½) U (72½)October 25 at Colorado W 40–37 L (-14) O (65)November 1 vs Arizona W 17–7 W (-6½) U (71)November 8 at Washington W 44–30 W (-5½) O (53)November 22 vs Southern Cal W 38–20 W (-3½) U (62)November 28 vs Stanford L 31–10 L (-6) U (48½)








KAnSAS ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was KANSAS ST 38.6, OPPONENT 22.7.

R AT I N G = * *





• Play Under - Any non- conference game between two major FBS teams involving two good teams (+0.6-1.2 YPP margin) after 7+ games. • The situation’s record is 76-36 since 1992 (67.9%, +36.4 units). R AT I N G = * * *

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Oklahoma State Cowboys 26Washington Huskies 30Forecaster

After leading Oklahoma State to an upset win over Oklahoma, true freshman QB Mason Rudolph is likely to make his third career start. He’ll be without RB/WR Tyreek Hill, the team’s top return man and leader in yards from scrimmage, who was kicked out of school for a domestic-abuse arrest. Washington comes in after easy wins over Washington State and Oregon State. The Huskies should have their injury-depleted RB rotation fairly healthy. They relied heavily on defense creating offense this season; UW forced 27 turnovers and scored nine defensive/special teams return touchdowns.


cAcTUs Bowl

SUN DEVIL STADIUM - TEMPE, AZFRIDAY, JAN. 2, 2015; 10:15 P.M. EST

Line: WASHINGTON BY 5½OVeR/UnDeR: 56½

WAs h I N G T O NOKlAhOMA sTATE

2014 GAME lOG (8-5 sU, 7-6 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 at Hawaii W 17–16 L (-17) U (56)September 6 vs Eastern Washington W 59–52 L (-17) O (62½)September 13 vs Illinois W 44–19 W (-13) U (64)September 20 vs Georgia State W 45–14 L (-34½) U (70)September 27 vs Stanford L 20–13 W (+7½) U (48½)October 11 at California W 31–7 W (+3½) U (67)October 18 at Oregon L 45–20 L (+21½) O (64½)October 25 vs Arizona State L 24–10 L (+3½) U (61)November 1 at Colorado W 38–23 W (-2½) O (54½)November 8 vs UCLA L 44–30 L (+5½) O (53)November 15 at Arizona L 27–26 W (+8) U (59½)November 22 vs Oregon State W 37–13 W (-6½) U (53½)November 29 at Washington State W 31–13 W (-4) U (62½)








REcENT OKlAhOMA sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/3/14 COTTON vs. MISSOURI L 31–41 L (-3) O (62)1/1/13 TICKET CITY vs. PURDUE W 58–14 W (-18) O (69)1/2/12 FIESTA vs. STANFORD W 41–38 L (-4½) O (73)12/29/10 ALAMO vs. ARIZONA W 36–10 W (-4½) U (68½)

REcENT WAshINGTON BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/27/13 FIGHT HUNGER vs. BYU W 31–16 W (-6) U (65½)12/22/12 LAS VEGAS vs. BOISE ST L 26–28 W (+4) O (44)12/29/11 ALAMO vs. BAYLOR L 56–67 L (+8) O (79)12/30/10 HOLIDAY vs. NEBRASKA W 19–7 W (+12) U (55)

2014 GAME lOG (6-6 sU, 5-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Florida State L 37–31 W (+18) O (64½)September 6 vs Missouri State W 40–23 L (-34) O (62)September 13 vs UTSA W 43–13 W (-12) O (55½)September 25 vs Texas Tech W 45–35 L (-14) O (69½)October 4 vs Iowa State W 37–20 W (-16½) U (63)October 11 at Kansas W 27–20 L (-20) U (48½)October 18 at TCU L 42–9 L (+10½) U (62)October 25 vs West Virginia L 34–10 L (+2½) U (66½)November 1 at Kansas State L 48–14 L (+13) O (53)November 15 vs Texas L 28–7 L (+1) U (46½)November 22 at Baylor L 49–28 W (+33) O (67½)December 6 at Oklahoma W 38–35 W (+19½) O (57½)








OKLAHOMA ST is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

The average score was OKLA-HOMA ST 38.0, OPPONENT 26.8.

R AT I N G = * *

T O P AT sF O x s h E E T s . c O M


T O P O V E R / U N D E RF O x s h E E T s . c O M


WASHinGTOn is is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was WASH-INGTON 39.2, OPPONENT 16.7

R AT I N G = *

46 www.StatFox.com

East Carolina Pirates 26Florida Gators 30Forecaster

Florida players will be trying to impress incoming coach Jim McElwain. Interim coach D.J. Durkin will be on the side-line though. As defensive coordinator, Durkin led a unit that allowed 400-plus yards in a game just once in the last seven. UF held Florida State to 24 points and 306 yards in a 24-19 loss in the regular-season finale, intercepting Jameis Winston four times. East Carolina relies on QB Shane Carden and a wide-open passing attack. Carden has thrown for 300-plus yards in all but three games this season, including 427 in a 28-21 win at Virginia Tech in September.



BIRMINGhAM Bowl

LEgION FIELD - BIRMINgHAM, ALSATURDAY, JAN. 3, 2015; 1:00 P.M. EST

Line: FLORIDA BY 7OVeR/UnDeR: 57

F l O R I DAEAsT cAROlINA

2014 GAME lOG (6-5 sU, 6-5 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/USeptember 6 vs Eastern Michigan W 65–0 W (-40½) O (56)September 13 vs Kentucky W 36–30 L (-17½) O (54)September 20 at Alabama L 42–21 L (+14) O (50½)October 4 at Tennessee W 10–9 W (+1) U (52)October 11 vs LSU L 30–27 L (+2½) O (44)October 18 vs Missouri L 42–13 L (-6½) O (45)November 1 at Georgia W 38–20 W (+12) O (46)November 8 at Vanderbilt W 34–10 W (-14½) O (43)November 15 vs South Carolina L 23–20 L (-6½) U (57)November 22 vs Eastern Kentucky W 52–3 W (-30½) O (51)November 29 at Florida State L 24–19 W (+7) U (53)








REcENT EAsT cAROlINA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/23/13 ST PETERSBURG vs. OHIO U W 37–20 W (-14) U (63½)12/22/12 NEW ORLEANS vs. LA LAFAYETTE L 34–43 L (+6½) O (70)12/29/10 EAGLE BANK vs. MARYLAND L 20–51 L (+8) O (70½)1/2/10 LIBERTY vs. ARKANSAS L 17–20 W (+7½) U (60)

REcENT FlORIDA BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/2/13 SUGAR vs. LOUISVILLE L 23–33 L (-14) O (47½)1/2/12 GATOR vs. OHIO ST W 24–17 W (-2½) U (44)1/1/11 OUTBACK vs. PENN ST W 37–24 W (-7) O (47½)1/1/10 SUGAR vs. CINCINNATI W 51–24 W (-12) O (59)

2014 GAME lOG (8-4 sU, 5-7 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs N.C. Central W 52–7 W (-39½) O (57½)September 6 at South Carolina L 33–23 W (+14½) U (64½)September 13 at Virginia Tech W 28–21 W (+10) U (54)September 20 vs North Carolina W 70–41 W (+1½) O (66½)October 4 vs Southern Methodist W 45–24 L (-38) O (57½)October 11 at South Florida W 28–17 L (-17) U (57)October 23 vs Connecticut W 31–21 L (-28) U (55½)November 1 at Temple L 20–10 L (-10) U (61½)November 13 at Cincinnati L 54–46 L (-1½) O (71½)November 22 vs Tulane W 34–6 W (-20) U (61½)November 28 at Tulsa W 49–32 L (-18½) O (70)December 4 vs Central Florida L 32–30 L (-6½) O (55)








e CAROLinA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a straight-up loss over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was E CARO-LINA 39.6, OPPONENT 21.3.

R AT I N G = * *






www.StatFox.com 47


Toledo Rockets 33Arkansas State Red Wolves 30Forecaster

This is Arkansas State’s fourth straight trip to the GoDaddy Bowl. The Red Wolves are 2-1 SU and ATS in Mobile. ASU QB Fredi Knighten leads a high-powered offense that averaged 44.0 PPG and 518.7 YPG over their last seven. Toledo finished its season on a high note, winning two straight and four of five SU, including a 27-20 win over MAC East champion Bowling Green. Their offense was held below 400 yards in a game just once this season. Sophomore RB Kareem Hunt rushed for 100-plus yards in all nine of his games, including 148 and three touchdowns against SEC East champ Missouri.


GoDADDY.cOM Bowl

ROSE BOWL - PASADENA, CASUNDAY, JAN. 4, 2015; 9:00 P.M. EST

Line: TOLEDO BY 2½OVeR/UnDeR: 67

A R K A N sAs s TAT ETOlEDO

2014 GAME lOG (7-5 sU, 8-4 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs Montana State W 37–10 W (-12½) U (54½)September 6 at Tennessee L 34–19 W (+16) U (60)September 13 at Miami L 41–20 L (+14½) O (52½)September 20 vs Utah State W 21–14 W (-3) U (46)October 4 vs Louisiana-Monroe W 28–14 W (-10½) U (53)October 11 at Georgia State W 52–10 W (-10½) U (62½)October 21 at Louisiana-Lafayette L 55–40 L (-3) O (59)November 1 at Idaho W 44–28 W (-15½) O (65½)November 8 vs South Alabama W 45–10 W (-11) O (52½)November 15 vs Appalachian State L 37–32 L (-15½) O (62)November 20 at Texas State L 45–27 L (-6½) O (58)November 29 vs New Mexico State W 68–35 W (-23½) O (65)








REcENT TOlEDO BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U12/15/12 HUMANITARIAN vs. UTAH ST L 15–41 L (+10) U (60½)12/28/11 EAGLE BANK vs. AIR FORCE W 42–41 L (-3) O (68½)12/26/10 LITTLE CAESARS vs. FL INT’L L 32–34 P (+2) O (58½)12/21/05 GMAC vs. UTEP W 45–13 W (-3) U (62½)

REcENT ARKANsAs sTATE BOWl GAME lOG

DATE BOWL/OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/U1/5/14 GMAC vs. BALL ST W 23–20 W (+6) U (65½)1/6/13 GMAC vs. KENT ST W 17–13 W (-3) U (63½)1/8/12 GMAC vs. N ILLINOIS L 20–38 L (-1½) U (66)12/20/05 NEW ORLEANS vs. SOUTHERN MISS L 19–31 W (+15) O (49½)

2014 GAME lOG (8-4 sU, 4-7-1 ATs)

DATE OPPONENT SCORE ATS O/UAugust 30 vs New Hampshire W 54–20 W (-11½) O (63½)September 6 vs Missouri L 49–24 L (+3½) O (61)September 12 at Cincinnati L 58–34 L (+9½) O (58)September 20 vs Ball State W 34–23 L (-14½) U (60)September 27 vs Central Michigan W 42–28 W (-10) O (59)October 4 at Western Michigan W 20–19 L (-5) U (61½)October 11 at Iowa State L 37–30 L (+3) O (61½)October 25 vs Massachusetts W 42–35 L (-17½) O (69)November 4 at Kent State W 30–20 L (-13) U (57)November 11 at Northern Illinois L 27–24 W (+3½) U (62½)November 19 vs Bowling Green W 27–20 P (-7) U (59½)November 28 at Eastern Michigan W 52–16 W (-23) O (60)








TOLeDO is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was TOLEDO 23.0, OPPONENT 29.0.

R AT I N G = * * * *





• Play Under - Neutral field bowl games where the total is between 63.5 and 70 and both teams have winning records on the season. • The situation’s record is 26-6 over the last 5 seasons (81.2%, +19.4 units). R AT I N G = * * *

VOLUME 13 - NUMBER 2 COLLEGE BOWL GUIDE 2014-15 · statfox edge college bowl guide 2014-15 staff...

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