Volume 1 No. 4 Final

8/3/2019 Volume 1 No. 4 Final

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Contact Mark Moriarty

[email protected]

617.694.5161

Duxbury Energy, LLC 2011

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Volume 1 No. 4 August 30, 2011

LaymansAnalysis of Frackingand the Shale Boom. Implications for Supply,

Prices, the Economy, Investments and the Environment

Abstract This paper will address the fundamental issues posed by hydraulic fracturing or fracking.

The approach will be a laymans overview analysis of the implications of this technology for energy

supply, prices and the environment. To some in the energy industry non-conventional (shale) natural

gas and oil is a huge economic boom, to the New York Times it has some characteristics ofa Ponzi

scheme1. The potential is enormous but as with any boom not all opportunities carry equal value and

hidden costs must be identified.

I. Executive SummaryII. What is FrackingIII. Impact on Energy Supply from FrackingIV. The EconomicsV. Impact on Energy PricesVI. Impact on the EnvironmentVII. Where to InvestVIII. ConclusionsIX. DisclaimerI. Executive Summary

Fracking has become the energy topic of the summer of 2011. To proponents it is an economic

windfall. To opponents it means the destruction of the environment and another fossil fuel

folly impeding the path to a zero carbon energy future. Fracking does have some potential

environmental concerns. The chief consensus concerns are protection of ground water where

the well bore passes through the aquifer, proper handling and treatment of waste water

created, and the amount of water used in the process. These are engineering issues that can be

managed and solved. Natural gas is, by far, the cleanest fossil fuel. Renewable sources (wind,

solar, etc.) are very expensive. More importantly they do not scale and are uncorrelated withdemand for energy. Paradoxically, the more your grid relies on renewable sources the more

natural gas (and other quick run) generation facilities you need available to meet grid demand.

1Seehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/us/26gas.html for a critique of the article from the Weekly Standard

seehttp://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/new-york-times-passes-gas_577312.html.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/us/26gas.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/us/26gas.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/us/26gas.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/new-york-times-passes-gas_577312.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/new-york-times-passes-gas_577312.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/new-york-times-passes-gas_577312.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/new-york-times-passes-gas_577312.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/us/26gas.html


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Is fracking an economic windfall? In a word Yes. The potential is enormous. Proven reserves

have increased nearly 160% in just the last three years. The known reserves at current demand

will meet our domestic natural gas needs for the next 50+ years. Duxbury Energy expects

proven reserve estimates to continue to increase. The net-net should be low / stable natural

gas prices for an extended period of time. In constant dollars the Energy Information Agency(www.eia.gov) recently projected decreasing to flat natural gas prices for the next 11 years, and

increasing moderately thereafter. In the medium and long term new uses for natural gas and

exports will create substantial additional economic growth opportunities. Clean, inexpensive

and plentiful energy is an enormous opportunity for the United States economy.

The true size of any opportunity however lies in the quality of the execution. If reasonable

environmental and engineering concerns are not addressed, a regulatory and public backlash

could greatly hinder the opportunity. Not all potential resource areas are created equal.

Production costs, energy content, output and production curves vary from play to play and well

to well. Supply increases will constrain prices creating a boon for consumers but profit

constraints for natural gas companies. Understanding the implications of these and related

issues will allow you to plan and profit from the future of fracking.

II. What is FrackingFracking is not a new technology its basic precepts have been used in the oil and gas industry

for over 60 years. What is new is the application of the technology to shale formations. While

it has been known for decades that shale contained natural gas it was not economical until

better horizontal drilling techniques and the application of modern fracking technology.

Fracking is a drilling technique when a vertical well is sunk to the desired depth. The well then

turns horizontally into the resource (shale). Steel and concrete line the vertical portion and a

concrete lining for the horizontal portion. A perforation device is then installed. Small directed

explosive charges emanate from the device perforating the concrete casing and cracking the

surrounding shale strata. The device is removed and hydraulic fracking liquids are pumped into

the well under pressure. This fluid is principally water with sand /quartz / ceramics as well as a

small amount of proprietary chemicals2. This fluid is forced into the perforated strata further

opening the cracks and holding them open so the natural gas can be extracted. Some of the

2These chemicals have become a point of controversy. Companies claim they do not want to disclose these

additives because disclosing them would be divulging trade secrets. Environmentalists claim that the materials

are likely hazardous chemicals and threaten people and the environment. It is expected that government

regulations will eventually require the disclosure of the additives used, although exact formulations would remain

proprietary. These chemicals make up a small fraction of fracking fluids.
http://www.eia.gov/http://www.eia.gov/http://www.eia.gov/http://www.eia.gov/


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fluid is removed and stored in lined detention basins near the well.3

The natural gas is then

transported to market.

See also first video at:

http://www.youtube.com/ExxonMobil?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=fracking&utm_campai

gn=XOM_Corporate_G_Branded%20General

III. Impact on Energy Supply from Fracking3

These storage ponds are of legitimate concern and must be managed responsibly. These storage ponds contain

water, silicates, chemicals and residue from the drilling process. The material is not dischargeable, can cause harm

if accidently released, and must be treated either on site or offsite. The best solution is likely on-site treatment of

the wastewater, removing potentially harmful materials, recycling of particulates, and recycling of water for reuse.
http://www.youtube.com/ExxonMobil?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=fracking&utm_campaign=XOM_Corporate_G_Branded%20Generalhttp://www.youtube.com/ExxonMobil?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=fracking&utm_campaign=XOM_Corporate_G_Branded%20Generalhttp://www.youtube.com/ExxonMobil?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=fracking&utm_campaign=XOM_Corporate_G_Branded%20Generalhttp://www.youtube.com/ExxonMobil?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=fracking&utm_campaign=XOM_Corporate_G_Branded%20Generalhttp://www.youtube.com/ExxonMobil?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=fracking&utm_campaign=XOM_Corporate_G_Branded%20General


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According to Energy Information Agency publicationAnnual Energy Outlook 2011

(www.eia.doe.gov/forecasts/aeo) the United States has 2,552 Trillion Cubic Feet (Tcf) of

potential natural gas resources of which 8274

Tcf (33%) comes from shale. This shale estimate

has more than doubled in just the last year. The EIA and others industry groups project an

increasing share of natural gas from shale plays. These estimates are expected to continue to

increase.

To put this into perspective assume that only 10% of the shale reserves are extracted at the

current (low) price of $0.40 / cf = 83,000,000,000,000 * $0.40 = $33.2 Trillion in wholesale

value. For every 2.5 Tcf / year of shale gas production = $ 1 Trillion in annual wholesale value.

Shale gas extracted was about 4.87 Tcf in 2010 and continues to grow. This is a multi-trillion

dollar opportunity.

Some estimates are that only 1% to 3% of the available resources have been tapped to date.

44A recent USGS report on Marcellus shale states that the play holds 84 Tcf of recoverable natural gas. This is

much lower than the recent EIA report of 410 Tcf in the Marcellus play. In very rough terms this would reduce the

national estimates from 827 Tcf to a little under 500 Tcf. At current levels of demand this is still enough natural

gas to meet domestic needs for over 50 years. EIA has said they will reevaluate their model based on the USGS

report.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/forecasts/aeohttp://www.eia.doe.gov/forecasts/aeohttp://www.eia.doe.gov/forecasts/aeohttp://www.eia.doe.gov/forecasts/aeo


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The shale resource areas are vast with some measured in thousands of square miles.

One of the most promising resources is the Marcellus play that runs from New York down

through Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, western Maryland and West Virginia. The play covers

50,000,000 +/- acres and only recently has substantial drilling activity started in earnest.

A recent revision from the USGS estimates 84 Tcf of recoverable natural gas in the Marcellus

play.5 This is up from the USGS estimate for the play of 2 Tcf in 2002.

5The 84 Tcf for Marcellus is substantially lower than 2011 EIA estimates (410 Tcf) and 2011 private estimates of

the Potential Gas Committee a non-profit group of industry analysts and academics (350 Tcf). To put into context

the reduction means that we would have sufficient natural gas for 50+ years rather than 110 years.

Source: http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdf
http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdf


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One of the most intriguing aspects of these shale plays is that they tend to be on private lands.

Small private land parcels facilitate transactions. In addition these parcels are on land and tend

to be in areas with existing infrastructure, making them accessible. This allows smaller more

entrepreneurial companies to participate in the shale gas market. More competition means

lower prices for consumers.

Typically large new resource areas are located in remote areas, federal lands and waters. These

transactions are often drawn out and expensive to participate in. This limits participation to

very large well capitalized oil and gas companies. Less competition means higher prices for

consumers.

While the US has very sophisticated geological mapping the rest of the world has yet to be fully

investigated for shale plays. What we know to date of the international potential is very

encouraging. Preliminary estimates are 5,760 Tcf (US has 827 Tcf) of technically recoverable

shale gas located in 32 countries. The US is a world leader in the technologies to recover this

resource. This is a potential boom market for US companies. If US companies invest in

concepts and technologies to use this clean, plentiful and inexpensive energy the returns in

terms of both growth and jobs could be substantial. Worldwide the potential market is in the

trillions annually. Seehttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdf for the

full report. See alsohttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdf .

The potential of shale plays and fracking are enormous and have the potential of a new golden

energy age. This one based not on coal, oil or green but on clean, plentiful and inexpensive

natural gas. Natural gas is cleaner and the best transitional energy source.
http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdfhttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdfhttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdfhttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdf


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IV. The EconomicsAny opportunity must meet three basic criteria. It must be a good idea that meets a market

need, it must executable, and it must make economic sense. The extraction of shale gas is a

very good idea that meets a most fundamental need - energy. Through the use of fracking

technology shale gas extraction is executable, but is it economical to produce? In laymens

terms does it pencil?

In any market, prices are set at the margins. That is the price for the last unit supplied that

meets current demand. If the market clearing price for widgets is $5 then companies will

produce widgets so long as they can make an acceptable profit at $5. If the market price drops

too low companies will no longer produce the widgets, supply decreases and for a given

demand prices will rise to bring the market back into equilibrium.

What does this mean for shale gas? Think of shale gas as marginal supply, the last unit of

market demanded natural gas. Shale gas will be produced6 at any given well so long as it can be

sold in the market for a reasonable profit. What then is that price?

The following graphic produced by Platts and Bentek shows various break-even points for shale

plays across the US. The rule of thumb required IRR for natural gas wells is 10%. Note that

some plays contain oil and natural gas liquids that can lower the breakeven for dry natural gas.

6This is an oversimplification but illustrative of the market as a whole. Investment in a well is often made years

before resource extraction and hence well before future market prices are known. In the short run a well may

continue to operate below the breakeven point to meet fixed costs but in the medium term operations would

cease until it again became profitable.


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A quick glance at the graphic shows that the production breakeven point is above

$3.007/MMBtu. In other words the floor for natural gas prices is above $3.00 and likely closer

to $4.00. Many plays are not profitable below $5. However all plays seem to work in the $6.00

range. The following is a graphic prepared by Platts and based on data from Morgan Stanley

showing specific plays and their minimum profit point at a 10% IRR

8

:

The graph indicates a market sweet spot between $4.00 and $4.50. These price points should

encourage sufficient production to meet current market demand. Where then is this range in a

recent historic perspective?

Notice over the last couple of years how stable prices have been with the 12 month moving

average right around $4.25. Some of this can be explained by the relatively lack luster growth

7There are a few plays below $3.00 but it is unlikely that these areas alone would produce sufficient natural gas to

meet aggregate market demand.8

A larger version of this image can be found at the end of this report.


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advantage of the relative energy value in natural gas, conversion of a significant portion of our

electricity generation to natural gas10

, and the beginnings of the US as an exporter of natural

gas as LNG11

. These increases in demand will be countered by continued increases in shale gas

production.

It is problematic to forecast prices years into the future but the EIA has a projection through

2035.

In the opinion of Duxbury Energy, and given the likely factors increasing demand The EIA has

underestimated future prices but not substantially. Marginal production costs and increased

production should keep prices under $6.00 (our estimate is in the range of $5.00 in the medium

term), but higher than the High Shale EUR depicted above.

The demand drivers should increase in the long run scenario. Added to the expected medium

term drivers would be the use of natural gas (principally in the form of CNG or possibly as a

liquid) as a vehicle fuel, first in commercial fleet vehicles, government vehicles, and eventually

in passenger cars and trucks. Given the clean, plentiful and inexpensive nature of the materialit is expected that new technologies will be developed to take advantage of the resource.

These long run demand drivers will likely encourage even more shale drilling and better

fracking techniques. The increased demand should push prices upward but countered by

increased drilling and improved fracking the net result should be additional moderate price

increases. It would be expected that long term prices will be in the range of $6.00, i.e. the

marginal production cost for more expensive shale plays. Substantial increases in demand

drivers could push prices higher but not substantially higher. For example, at $7.00 this would

10 This will be driven by government action. The recent EPA regulations on coal fired power plants will cause manyolder coal fired plants to close. They will be replaced by natural gas fired plants. In addition, as states continue to

mandate an increasing share of electricity production from renewable sources more quick fire generation sources,

i.e. natural gas, power plants will be required to meet grid demand. Bentek recently estimated that demand for

natural gas by electricity generators will increase 35% by 2014.11

The permitting and construction of LNG facilities can take up to a decade. LNG Exports should be profitable to

the Atlantic Basin and especially the Pacific Basin. Current deliveries to Japan are priced at $12+/MMBtu.


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be the equivalent of $56.00 oil. If production techniques continue to improve, marginal

production costs decline and drilling expands apace it is possible that we could see flat ($5.00

+/-) natural gas prices even in the long term.12

A brief note on electricity pricing: Electricity prices at the margin are determined by natural gas

prices. A low natural gas translates to a low price of electricity. Low electricity prices benefits

consumers especially at the commercial level. Low and stable electricity prices are a long term

beneficial effect of fracking. Lower electricity prices are a competitive advantage for US

companies.

VI. Impact on the EnvironmentThe single biggest constraint on the rapid expansion of fracking and shale gas exploration will

be perceived environmental concerns. These concerns can be broken down into three basic

postulates. The first fossil fuels are the wrong choice, second aesthetics, and lastly point

source pollution.

1. Fossil fuels are the wrong choice. This point of view is that investing in fossil based fuelsis the wrong policy choice. Proponents of this view believe that fossil fuels are a finite

resource, natural gas is a fossil fuel contributing to global warming, and it is imperative

to move our economy towards a carbon neutral future. They want us to focus our

limited energy investments on renewable sources, the principal forms available today

being wind and solar. This is a valid opinion, but only an opinion. It is true that fossil

fuels are a finite and not renewable. It is true that natural gas is a carbon based fuel. Itis also true that current technologies (wind and solar) are expensive

13, cannot survive

without government mandates and subsidies, production is not correlated with

demand, and most importantly the technologies do not scale. That is not to say that

renewable should not be part of our energy portfolio but rather that they are not the

solution.

There is no correct answer to this argument, it is a choice. From a primacy of economic

growth position the best choice is the responsible use of fracking and the exploitation of

12We see the long term bounds of the market between $4.00 and $8.00 with a bias towards the low end.

13Proponents of renewable sources argue that prices on fossil fuels do not correctly price the full societal costs

(externalities). These additional costs include negative environmental and health effects of fossil fuel use. It is also

argued that fossil fuels are also subsidized. This is true but the subsidies of fossil fuels are less on an energy

content basis by orders of magnitude. Renewable sources are not without environmental consequences, but they

are different consequences than from fossil fuel sources.


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shale gas. We will eventually transfer to a new energy source, but in the interim our

best choice is clean, plentiful, inexpensive natural gas. Reasoned choices are about the

best available option not the perfect theoretical solution.

2.

Aesthetics. Proponents of this view believe that the negative lifestyle impacts of drillingand extraction activities are not worth the economic benefits to a region or the nation.

Extraction of resources is not without impact. Roads have to be cut, trucks bring in

material and transport things off site. Pipelines may need to be laid and storage tanks

built. Wells are erected and drilled with the associated noise and activity. If an area is

pristine the activities may appear dramatic. The other side of the equation is the

creation of jobs, economic activity, and the compensation of landowners. Once again

there is no correct answer, it is a choice. Do communities believe that the benefits

outweigh the costs and what are a landowners rights. Expect these issues to be

resolved on a state by state, county by county, and town by town basis.

3. Point Source Pollution. This is the most substantial environmental issue. If frackingactivities result in the pollution of land and ground water this is a serious problem. The

primary issues are pollution of aquifers, improper release of wastewater, and excessive

use of water in fracking process.14

a. Pollution of aquifers (water tables). There have been anecdotal reports and a studyof contamination of aquifers in areas where fraking is occurring. First it is important

to recognize the importance of protecting the aquifers. All wells, since the beginning

of drilling, penetrate the ground water. There are engineering solutions to protect

this vital area. Wells are typically lined with steel, concrete, and supplemental

protection at level of the water table is required by regulation. This is not to say that

accidents never occur, however proper drilling and engineering techniques minimize

the risks. Regulations to protect the water table are in place and prudent. The

illustration below depicts typical well design through the water table/aquifer.

14An additional issue that has recently been expressed is the release of methane at the wellhead into the

atmosphere. Natural gas is principally methane; methane is a green house gas (GHG). The argument is that

release of methane in the extraction process offsets the benefits of natural gas as a cleaner burning fuel and

contributes to global warming.


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It is important to understand that the actual fracking operation takes place

thousands of feet below the aquifer. It is extremely unlikely that fracking is the

source of the contamination. The possible culprits are a non intact well casing15

, and

pre-existing gas deposits closer to the aquifer16

.

The protection of water tables is in everyones interest. Updating of regulations,

monitoring, and further study are rational policy. Fundamentally these issues are

engineering issues and can therefore be solved by best engineering practice.

b. Wastewater. The fracking process produces copious amounts of wastewater. Thiswastewater contains water, sands, chemical additives, and material from the drilling

process. This material is pumped into lined detention basins and stored on site until

it is transported for treatment. If this untreated wastewater leaks from these basins

damage to surrounding areas is possible, although rare. A good long term solution

is, whenever practical, on- site treatment of wastewater. This would include

separation of sands and chemicals as well as recycling the water for reuse (or

secondary treatment or reuse as gray water). On-site treatment would further

15This can be checked with pressure tests. The industrys safety record has been excellent.

16The same geology that lends itself to shale gas also commonly has other gas pockets closer to the surface. It is

not uncommon to flare (burn off) natural gas when a water well is drilled in areas that have shale deposits.

Source: Shell Oil


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minimize risks. The wastewater concern can be resolved by best engineering

practice.

c. Excessive use of water. Some believe that fracking uses too much water17. Water isa precious resource and its use must be managed. Water for fracking can comefrom local sources, trucked in from off-site, be recycled water etc. The composition

and source of the water used is a function of the best type for the required fracking

fluid. Over time it is expected that improvements in fracking fluid technology will

allow for the on-site treatment and re-use of fracking gray water. Once again an

engineering problem that will be improved upon as the industry grows.

VII. Where to InvestFracking and shale gas are a potential boom in US domestic energy market. We have the

opportunity to responsibly harvest Inexpensive, plentiful and clean natural gas. Estimates are

for sufficient supplies to meet our domestic needs for fifty years or more.

Where then are the best places to invest in the coming golden age of natural gas. Sometimes

in a gold rush the best risk adjusted returns are not in mining the gold but in selling the picks

and shovels.

Oil and natural gas companies are the developers of this potential resource. They hold the

equity upside of the opportunity. This upside however is constrained by multiple developers

and vast supply. These characteristics generally result in flat or falling prices. The survivors in

this environment will be firms that can obtain economies of scale in low marginal production

cost plays. The likely targets of M and A will be firms with control of substantial mineral rights

in lower cost production areas. In the long term expect consolidation with the large

acquisitions by major oil and gas companies.

If you invest in these gas development companies focus on companies with substantial holdings

in low marginal cost plays, strong capital position, and potential to capitalize on exports (LNG).

If market prices rise these low cost producers will in effect have an additional call option on the

upside. Careful analysis is required to ensure that current company value is not based onhigher than likely future natural gas prices.

17This opinion is relative. The position is most relevant if the use of water in fracking precludes its use for homes,

farms, and other industries. We are unaware of any circumstances where this has occurred.


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The best risk adjusted medium term investment option may however lie with drilling

companies, equipment suppliers, service providers, transportation companies, pipeline

companies and exporters.

In order to get the natural gas out of the ground land must be acquired (controlled), wells must

be drilled and fracked, material and equipment must be manufactured for a site, natural gas

must be stored, transported to market via trucks or pipelines, and wastewater must be treated.

These activities are regardless of market commodity prices, increasing drilling activity will raise

the demand for these products and services. This should keep prices for these services stable

to high, with revenues increasing with quantity. Focus on very well capitalized companies and

leaders in their respective fields. Carefully select segments that have high or relatively high

barriers to entry. Look for larger companies holding patents, proprietary technology, market

share, and reputation as industry leaders.

Longer term look to companies that will be able to capitalize on exports of LNG (terminals andexporters), pipelines especially from low cost production areas to ports capable of export,

technologies inclusive of power production, vehicular transportation, and compression

technology. With the exception of LNG terminals and pipeline companies, these groups can be

start-up and middle market companies, so long as they possess strong visionary leadership and

proprietary technology. Shale gas could be to the 2010s and 2020s what high tech was to the

1980s and 1990s.

VIII. ConclusionsFracking and shale gas is an enormous opportunity for the economy of the United States and

ultimately the world. This technology will make available vast quantities of natural gas. Natural

gas is the cleanest burning fossil fuel, and is our best transitional energy source. Fracking will

make this energy resource plentiful and inexpensive. There are environmental concerns but for

the most part these are engineering issues that lend themselves to best practice engineering

solutions.

Market forces should result in flat to moderately increasing prices. This is a boon to consumers

but complicates business investment decisions. Focus on low marginal cost production areas totake advantage of increases in prices. In a gold rush sometimes it is better to sell picks and

shovels than mine the gold. On a risk adjusted basis stable returns with strong growth will

likely be found in drilling services, transportation sectors and export. Long term expect the


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growth of new technologies to take advantage of this inexpensive energy source. These

companies can be start-ups and middle market companies with enormous growth potential.

IX. DisclaimerThis report is the opinion of Duxbury Energy; it is not intended or implied to provide investmentadvice. Historic pricing and futures pricing are no guaranty of future prices or rates. Duxbury

Energy is not an investment advisor or participant in energy investments or markets. Consult a

professional investment advisor prior to making any investments in companies or commodities.

Futures and Options trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You

must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and

options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation

nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account

will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site/white

paper. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative

of future results.

About Duxbury Energy, LLC:

Duxbury Energy is the premier energy brokerage firm for Real Estate. Through a

competitive bidding process we provide you with the best possible deals for

your electricity and natural gas, bringing you substantial savings. We work with

the best generator suppliers in the United States. Our network is national and

we specialize in portfolio contracts.Duxbury Energy is your strategic energy partner.

References:

www.hessenergy.com

http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/new-york-times-passes-gas_577312.html (Commentary

on NY Times article on Shale Gas)

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2011).pdf(EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011)

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdf(Intek Report)

http://205.254.135.24/analysis/studies/usshalegas/ (eia.gov report on shale gas)

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdf (world shale report)
http://www.hessenergy.com/http://www.hessenergy.com/http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/new-york-times-passes-gas_577312.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/new-york-times-passes-gas_577312.htmlhttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2011).pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2011).pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdfhttp://205.254.135.24/analysis/studies/usshalegas/http://205.254.135.24/analysis/studies/usshalegas/http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdfhttp://205.254.135.24/analysis/studies/usshalegas/http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/pdf/usshaleplays.pdfhttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2011).pdfhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/new-york-times-passes-gas_577312.htmlhttp://www.hessenergy.com/


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617.694.5161

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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/us/26gas.html (NYTimes Article)

http://www.youtube.com/ExxonMobil?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=fracking&ut

m_campaign=XOM_Corporate_G_Branded%20General (Exxon video)

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdf (World

Natural Gas Report)

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3092/ (USGS Update on Marcellus Shale estimates)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/25/us/25gas.html?hpw (NYTimes article on reduction in Marcellus

estimates)

http://www.timeincnewsgroupcustompub.com/sections/110815_gasshale.pdf (Platts flyer in August 15,

2011 Fortune Magazine)
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/us/26gas.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/us/26gas.htmlhttp://www.youtube.com/ExxonMobil?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=fracking&utm_campaign=XOM_Corporate_G_Branded%20Generalhttp://www.youtube.com/ExxonMobil?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=fracking&utm_campaign=XOM_Corporate_G_Branded%20Generalhttp://www.youtube.com/ExxonMobil?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=fracking&utm_campaign=XOM_Corporate_G_Branded%20Generalhttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdfhttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdfhttp://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3092/http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3092/http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/25/us/25gas.html?hpwhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/25/us/25gas.html?hpwhttp://www.timeincnewsgroupcustompub.com/sections/110815_gasshale.pdfhttp://www.timeincnewsgroupcustompub.com/sections/110815_gasshale.pdfhttp://www.timeincnewsgroupcustompub.com/sections/110815_gasshale.pdfhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/25/us/25gas.html?hpwhttp://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3092/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/ExxonMobil?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=fracking&utm_campaign=XOM_Corporate_G_Branded%20Generalhttp://www.youtube.com/ExxonMobil?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=fracking&utm_campaign=XOM_Corporate_G_Branded%20Generalhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/us/26gas.html

Volume 1 No. 4 Final

Documents

Transcript of Volume 1 No. 4 Final