Volkswagen Group in China Dr. Jörg Mull · 2020. 6. 27. · second joint venture in China. Ca. 5.5...
Transcript of Volkswagen Group in China Dr. Jörg Mull · 2020. 6. 27. · second joint venture in China. Ca. 5.5...
Volkswagen Group in ChinaDr. Jörg MullExecutive Vice President, Finance
Volkswagen Group China
2
Current China Automotive Market and Sales Performance
Market & Volkswagen Group Outlook
Volkswagen Group in China
Economic Indicators
Financial Results
Products
Capacity and Investment
3
History
Introduction of Volkswagen Group China
Volkswagen was the automotive pioneer in the modern Chinese market.
1985: Shanghai Volkswagen Automotive Co. (SVW) started production as a joint venture with the Shanghai Automotive Industrial Corporation (or SAIC). Ca. 7.5 million vehicles until February 2012.
1991: FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co. Ltd. (FAW-VW) started production as the second joint venture in China. Ca. 5.5 million vehicles until February 2012.
2004: Volkswagen Group China was founded to coordinate and manage all activities of Volkswagen in China.
Today: Volkswagen is represented by 17 companies in China (including finance and sales companies).
Total Investments 1984-2011Planned Investments 2012-2016Deliveries to Customers 2011Employees 2011
€ 12.4 Billion€ 14 Billion2.259 Million vehicles48,058
Volkswagen China Investment Company
Beijing
Volkswagen Transmission
Shanghai VolkswagenPowertrain
Shanghai
FAW-Volkswagen(Volkswagen, Audi)
DalianVolkswagen FAW Engine
ChangchunVolkswagen FAW Platform
Chengdu
Nanjing Shanghai Volkswagen
Shanghai Volkswagen(Volkswagen, ŠKODA)
Volkswagen AutomaticTransmission
Foshan
Yizheng
Volkswagen Production Facilities in China
car production plantscomponent plantsplanned plantsHeadquarter Volkswagen Group China
FAW-Volkswagen
Ningbo
4
FoundationShare
Deliveries 2011
1990FAW 60%, VW AG 30%, AUDI AG 10%
993,000
Successful partnership with FAW and SAIC
Octavia RSFabia Scout SuperbOctaviaFabia
Polo HB CrossPoloPolo NB
Passat LingyuTouran TiguanLavida
Santana Santana Vista
Passat
1984SAIC Motor 50%, VW AG 50%
1,141,000
CC
SagitarJetta Bora
Golf Golf GTI Magotan
A6LA4L Q5
5
Volkswagen
Lamborghini, Bentley
Audi
Locally ProducedImport FBU*
220.1
741.1 252.0
920.6
FAW-VW
SVW
61.7
61.0
2.2
Total Deliveries Region China 2.259 million
Deliveries of Volkswagen in China 2011 (‘000 Units)
* incl. Hongkong; Source: Volkswagen Group China
∑ 124.9 ∑ 2.134
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Current China Automotive Market and Sales Performance
Market & Volkswagen Group Outlook
Volkswagen Group in China
Economic Indicators
Financial Results
Products
Capacity and Investment
7
The economy of China is on a track towards normalization
Economic Indicators Unit 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 E
GDP [Growth rate] 9.6% 9.2% 10.3% 9.2% 8.3%
Consumption (public +private) [Growth rate] 21.6% 15.5% 18.4% 17.1% 16.9%
Inflation [CPI] 5.9% -0.7% 3.3% 5.4% 3.0%
Investment [Growth rate] 26.1% 30.1% 23.8% 23.8% 17.0%
Key Interest rate -- 1.80% 1.80% 2.25% 2.25% --
Shanghai Composite Index -- 1,820 3,277 2,808 2,823 --
Export [Growth rate] 17.2% -16.0% 31.3% 20.3% 8.0%
Import [Growth rate] 18.5% -11.2% 38.7% 24.9% 9.0%
Foreign Direct Investment [Bn. USD] 92.4 90.0 105.7 100.0 70
Exchange rate as of the end of the report period [RMB/USD] 6.83 6.83 6.78 6.46 6.30
Exchange rate as of the end of the report period [RMB/Euro] 9.66 9.80 8.97 9.01 8.19
Data Source: Deutsche Bank / ING
8
2011 GDP reached a 9.2% growth year on year, and the economy is now in a path of stable growth
CAGR 9.2%
Data Source: The National Bureau of Statistics China
CAGR 10.3%
Q4/09
10.7%
Q3/09
8.9%7.9%6.1%
Q2/09Q1/09 Q4/10Q3/10Q2/10Q1/10
11.9%
9.6%10.3%
9.8%
2009 2010 2011
Q1/11
9.7% 9.5%
Q2/11
9.1%
Q3/11
8.9%
Q4/11
CAGR 9.2%
2012(forecast)
Q2/12E Q3/12E Q4/12E
CAGR 8.3%
Q1/12E
7.8%8.4% 8.5% 8.6%
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GDP Growth development is expected to differentiate more strongly between the various Chinese regions
Zhejiang
Heilongjiang
Jilin
Liaoning
Hebei Tianjin
Shandong
Henan
Anhui
Jiangsu
Jiangxi
Fujian
Guangdong
Hunan
Hubei
Hainan
Beijing
Shanghai
Inner Mongolia
Shanxi
Guangxi Yunnan
Guizhou
Sichuan
Shaanxi
Ningxia
Gansu Qinghai
Tibet
Xinjiang
Chongqing
Expected GDP Growth 201212-15%
10-12%
8-10%
Estimate of Chinese GDP 2012 per Province
Province ExpectedGrowth 2012
Total GDP 2011 (trillion RMB)
Inner Mongolia 15.0% 1.40Guizhou 14.0% 0.56
Chongqing 13.5% 1.00Shaanxi 13.0% 1.20Hainan 13.0% 0.25Anhui 12.6% 1.50
Sichuan 12.0% 2.00Heilongjiang 12.0% 1.10
Tianjin 12.0% 1.10Shanxi 12.0% 1.10
Jilin 12.0% 1.04Gansu 12.0% 0.52Ningxia 12.0% 0.21Qinghai 12.0% 0.16Yunnan 12.0% 0.88Liaoning 11.0% 2.20Hunan 11.0% 1.96Fujian 11.0% 1.75Guanxi 11.0% 1.20Xinjiang 11.0% 0.66
Tibet 11.0% 0.06Henan 10.0% 2.70Hubei 10.0% 1.80Jiangxi 10.0% 1.20
Shangdong 9.5% 4.54Hebei 9.0% 2.40
Guangdong 8.5% 5.30Zhejiang 8.5% 3.18Jiangsu 8%-10% 4.80
Shanghai 8.0% 1.92Beijing 8.0% 1.60
Data Source: Provincial Government Report
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Current China Automotive Market and Sales Performance
Market & Volkswagen Group Outlook
Volkswagen Group in China
Economic Indicators
Financial Results
Products
Capacity and Investment
11
After a strong boom in the past two years, passenger car market growth in China is stabilizing
2003
* Estimate; Data Source: CKD – CPCA; FBU - Registration
2011201020092008
2,266
5,503
8,482
11,457
+35%
Total Passenger Car Market – China (incl. HK)‘000 Units
+54%
CAGR +19%
12,386
+9%
2012E
8-10%*
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Volkswagen Group is aiming for a new record in the Chinese market as a strategic target for the near future
20112007 2008 2009 2010
1,024910
1,400
1,923
‘000 Units
Source: Volkswagen Group China
2,259
2012E
Ranking Group YTD MS%Jan-Feb 12
YTD MS%Jan-Feb 11
1 VW Group 19.2% 17.7%
2 GM Group 10.9% 11.0%
3 Hyundai Group 8.6% 8.3%
4 Nissan Group 6.2% 5.0%
5 Toyota Group 5.3% 5.4%
6 Honda Group 4.2% 5.0%
7 Geely Group 3.7% 3.8%
8 BYD 3.5% 3.7%
9 Chery Group 3.4% 3.3%
10 PSA Group 3.1% 3.1%
Others 31.9% 33.7%
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In Jan-Feb 2012, Volkswagen Group maintained its Number 1 position by market share in China Mainland
Average Market Share in %China Mainland (2012 Jan-Feb)
VolkswagenGroup
14
VW brand maintained the 1st place in the Chinese Passenger Car market
Data Source: Manufacturers exchange data; Volkswagen Group China
Constant Growth of VW BrandMarket Leader in China Passenger Car Market
2007 2008 201020092006
Deliveries to customers
2011 Jan-Feb2012 Jan-Feb
+10%
+3%
+13%
+2%
2011 2012E
In Units In ‘000 Units
15
Audi brand further improved its 1st position in the Chinese Premium Passenger Car market
Data Source: Manufacturers exchange data; Volkswagen Group China
2007 2008 2010200920062011 Jan-Feb2012 Jan-Feb
+43%
+28%
+35%
+22%
Market Leader in China Premium Passenger Car Market Rapid Growth of Audi Brand
2012E2011
Deliveries to customersIn Units In ‘000 Units
16
ŠKODA Brand growing further in 2012
Data Source: Manufacturers exchange data; Volkswagen Group China
2007 2008 201020092011 Jan-Feb
+8%
+16%
+51%
Skoda Brand Competitiveness Skoda Brand is Growing Fast
2012E2012 Jan-Feb
-20%
2011
Deliveries to customersIn Units In ‘000 Units
17
Significant growth of dealer networks planned
~3,000
1,590
1,120
230240
>1,900
>500
>500
2011 Mid-term
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Current China Automotive Market and Sales Performance
Market & Volkswagen Group Outlook
Volkswagen Group in China
Economic Indicators
Financial Results
Products
Capacity and Investment
19
Volkswagen will continue to launch new products in China, in order to satisfy customer demands (local production)
Audi A6 L
2011+8
+5
+8
Sagitar
Passat Polo NB Fabia
201420132012+8
+7
Magotan
20
>100 vehicles
Field test
Various models
>10,000 vehicles
Series
2 models
E-optimized series
Range100-200 km
Range options
2010-2013 2014-2018 After 2018
>100,000 vehicles
Phase 1: Test
3-phase introduction of e-mobility in China
Phase 2: Start of series production Phase 3: Mass market
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Current China Automotive Market and Sales Performance
Market & Volkswagen Group Outlook
Volkswagen Group in China
Economic Indicators
Financial Results
Products
Capacity and Investment
22
Chengdu
Nanjing
Beijing
The investment strategy of Volkswagen Group China is self-funded through the Joint Ventures
Source: Volkswagen Group China
North
East
“Go South Strategy”
“Go West Strategy”
Total Investments
2010 - 2012 € 6.0bn
2012 - 2016 € 14.0bn
FAW-VW
SVW
FAW-VW
FAW-VW
Changchun
Shanghai
Foshan
Yizheng
Ningbo
Existing vehicle plant
New vehicle plant / expanding capacity
Nanjing
23
Volkswagen Group China capacity increase(‘000 Units)
Source: Volkswagen Group China
More working days (wd)
Further capacity optimization
2011 2014
Upwardflexibility
~47%
250 wd
250 wd
3 additional plants+
significant increasein one existing plant
1,500
700
3,000
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Current China Automotive Market and Sales Performance
Market & Volkswagen Group Outlook
Volkswagen Group in China
Economic Indicators
Financial Results
Products
Capacity and Investment
25
Volkswagen Group China – Achievements
Deliveries to Customers 1,024 1,400
Production (100%) 975 1,387
Operating profit (quotal) 831
(’000 Units)
(’000 Units)
(€ m) 395
2008 2009
Source: Volkswagen Group China
1: SVW Group / FAW-VW Group
1
1
2010
1,923
1,914
1,907
2011
2,259
2,202
2,616
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Current China Automotive Market and Sales Performance
Market & Volkswagen Group Outlook
Volkswagen Group in China
Economic Indicators
Financial Results
Products
Capacity and Investment
27
Total Passenger Car Market in China will develop further in the future
Source: Volkswagen Group China / IHS Global Insight
2020E2011
12,386
>15,000
>20,000
>7%
‘000 Units
2013E2012E
Average AnnualGrowth Rate
Total Passenger Car Market Forecast – China (incl. HK)
8-10%
>8%
28
Mega and midsized cities will be the engine of GDP growth
3
Big town(<0.5M) 572
Small(0.5-1.5M) 171
Mid-sized(1.5-5.0M) 64
Big(5-10M) 11
Mega(10M+)
2005821 cities
8
488
252
114
10
2020872 cities
% of GDP
2005 2020
13 25
21
29
20
17
12
34
19
9
New cities
35
64
6054
117130
44246
Distribution by city size
5
Source: McKinsey Insights China
Remarks: 8 mega cities in 2010 (Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Wuhan, Chengdu, Guangzhou)
City Level (Population)
Appendix
30
Industry stock levels increased to 2.0 month by the end of February 2012
Data Source: CPCA, Volkswagen Group China
(>1.5) (<1.2)
Current stock level (in month) of major OEMs
Volkswagen Group
Comp.10
Comp.11
Comp.15
Comp.5
Comp.9
SVWVW
Comp.6
Comp.8
AudiComp.3
Comp. 2
Comp. 1
Comp.4
FAW-VWVW
Comp.14
Comp.13
ŠKODAComp.7
(>1.5) (1.2~1.5)3.4
2.42.3
1.82.0
1.7 1.71.5 1.4
1.31.41.21.3 1.2
0.9
1.4 1.3
Industry Average
2.0
Volkswagen Group
1.21.3
Comp.12
Disclaimer
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