Volcanic Ash Crisis 2010 Seminar Belgrade, 7th September 2010

European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

Brian FLYNNEUROCONTROL/CFMU

Network Operations

1.14th April – 28th April2.European coordination 3.3rd May to 23rd May4.The next one …?

It all started on 14th April …

From contingency

to crisis

VAAC London - First Volcanic Ash Advisory - 14th April

CFMU activates its volcanic ash contingency procedure

• Early warning – issue information on volcanic ash activity

• On request of national ATC providers : CFMU applies measures effectively closing airspace

• Inform the network e.g. organise teleconferences, help desk

Europe enters an ash aviation crisis on Thursday 15 April

Impact on the European traffic (15 April – 21 April)

Daily Traffic per Volcano Activity Week

2857

8

2859

7

2265

3

2496

5

2812

6

2750

8

2808

7

2084

2

1165

9

9330

5204

5335

2191

1

1310

1

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED

W201015 W201016

• 54% of flights not operated

• More than 100,000 flights

• 1% of annual traffic

Traffic in Europe 14th to 21st April 2010

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

PARIS CH DE GAULLE

FRANKFURT MAIN

LONDON/HEATHROW

MADRID BARAJAS

MUENCHEN 2

SCHIPHOL AMSTERDAM

ROME FIUMICINO

BARCELONA

WIEN SCHWECHAT

ISTANBUL-ATATURK

COPENHAGEN KASTRUP

ZURICH

PARIS ORLY

OSLO/GARDERMOEN

DUESSELDORF

BRUSSELS NATIONAL

STOCKHOLM-ARLANDA

ATHINAI/ELEFTHERIOS VENIZELOS

MILANO MALPENSA

GENEVA

W201016

W201015

Impact on Airports (traffic)

In the area directly affected by the ash – 70% reduction

Outside of the area directly affected by the ash – 23% reduction

Impact on Aircraft Operators (traffic)

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

LUFTHANSA

RYANAIR

EASYJET

AIR FRANCE

SCANDINAVIAN AIRLINES SYSTEM

AIR BERLIN

TURKISH AIRLINES

KLM ROYAL DUTCH AIRLINES

ALITALIA

BRITISH AIRWAYS

IBERIA AIRLINES

AUSTRIAN AIRLINES

SWISS INTERNATIONAL AIR LINES

AIR NOSTRUM

NORWEGIAN AIR SHUTTLE

WIDEROES FLYVESELSKAP

TAP PORTUGAL

VUELING AIRLINES

LOT POLISH AIRLINES

OLYMPIC AIRLINES

W201015 W201016

In the area directly affected by the ash – average reduction of 67%

Outside affected areas - average reduction of 20%

Several airlines lost more than 80% of foreseen traffic

• Coordination – EC & EUROCONTROL– EC – political leadership – EUROCONTROL – network management

expertise

• EUROCONTROL proposes three options

• Teleconference of the EUROCONTROL Provisional Council (AM) & EU Council of Ministers (PM) – option 3

Unlocking the crisis: 19th April

OPTION 3

- NO FLY ZONE - Contaminated Zone

- Ash Free Zone

EUROCONTROL charts:•to assist states in

determining NO FLY ZONE•buffer of 60NM

States to decide on

NO FLY ZONE

NEW ROLE FOR EUROCONTROL/CFMU

• Early warning – issue information on volcanic ash activity

• On request of national ATC providers : CFMU applies measures

• Facilitate information exchange e.g. organise teleconferences, help desk

• Publish charts to assist states in deciding on NO FLY ZONE

• NOP used as central data repository

• Closures in UK and Ireland, then Portugal, Spain, Italy, Morocco

• 11th May – UK CAA/Met Office remove the 60NM buffer following a safety assessment - States retain prerogative to add the 60NM buffer

• 18th May - UK CAA/Met Office issue a new CHART: black, grey, red

• 21st May – EASA issue a Safety Information Bulletin:

• NO FLY ZONE, – ENHANCED PROCEDURES ZONE: GREY AND

RED, – NORMAL ZONE

3rd May – Volcanic ash procedures restarted…

NEW UK MET OFFICE CHART

Country 15/04/10 16/04/10 17/04/10 18/04/10 19/04/10 20/04/10 21/04/10 Total

EB 6 1 1 1 1 5 3 18

ED 17 61 58 69 39 44 58 346

EE 1 1 1 1 3 7

EF 5 4 4 4 5 6 5 33

EG 40 34 31 29 29 47 5 215

EH 13 10 10 11 13 28 13 98

EI 12 10 10 6 7 7 52

EK 8 2 2 2 2 5 2 23

EN 8 7 7 7 4 8 41

EP 1 6 1 1 3 12

ES 26 9 8 7 25 26 24 125

LB 2 2

LD 6 4 2 12

LE 4 22 26

LF 29 46 72 67 30 39 4 287

LH 1 1 1 1 4

LI 1 8 13 16 22 60

LJ 4 3 2 9

LK 2 1 1 1 5

LO 12 9 9 6 36

LR 2 9 9 9 29

LS 8 15 13 12 10 58

LW 1 1

LY 2 2 4

LZ 1 1 1 1 4

MA 11 17 10 6 5 5 54 UK 2 18 20 4 1 45

Total 177 236 293 312 213 261 114 1606

Daily Number of ATFM Regulations Applied

Hourly number of Exclusions Applied - Tuesday

Total

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Total

Day (All)

Count of S_FLT_LOBT

Hour

• European Aviation market : a €140 billion business • Air traffic control/management costs €8 billion for >9 million flights/year• Airlines incurred €9 billions losses in 2009 because of the economic crisis• • In 2007, delays generated €1.3 billion of costs to airlines (2010 – €1.7 billion?).• Flight inefficiencies generate substantial additional fuel burn – estimated at more than €1 billion per year - and generate some additional 16 million tonnes of CO2 per year.

Crisis – What Crisis

•The volcanic ash cloud crisis cost airlines €1.26 billion in a week

• Close or advise• Who closes – ATS, CAA ……….• What scientific criteria?• What times to close, notice, duration, reopen?• Network Information Sharing• Managing scarce resources• Role of Network manager

Questions

• Have we got dramatically different approaches Europe v North America?

• What criteria are used to close, restrict airspace, airports?

• How, where are these published?

• Even if harmonised criteria, application is still at national level

• Who decides (CAA, Regulator, ANSP….)?

Issues - Dealing with ICAO, States and Regulators

• Dynamic closures of airspace volumes not yet a functionality of European ATM (responsibility for penetration)

• Legal basis of ATFM measures

• Unsustainable workload for central unit

• Uncertainty regarding periods of closure

• Emergency ATFCM Operating Procedures

Issues - ANSP / FMP / CFMU

• Teleconferences chaotic and unmanageable

• Teleconferences not secure

• Uncertainty regarding periods of closure

• NOP Portal pushed to limits

• Reading of NOTAM, SIGMET, NOP, etc.

• E-mail help line

• Airline Representative associations

Issues – AO – Information – Complexity - Tools

• Can the “contact your local airline”, go to the airport”, etc. approach continue for major international events.

• Who should play and pay for this role – EC, EUROCONTROL, IATA?

• Passenger rights

Issues - Dealing with the Public

Discussion Points• Crisis cells are not executive bodies. They are there to

coordinate, collect and provide advice and information. There should be no duplication or usurping of decisions that are in the competence of states and regulatory agencies.

• The concept of safe / unsafe operations based on 6 hourly predictions is not valid. We need to move away from the notion that we can use airspace regulations to solve an air worthiness issue. The objective is to find what sort of conditions aircraft can operate in, i.e. how we can move to option 2 satisfying air worthiness considerations.

• Whatever thresholds and guidance are established need to be accepted and applies on a European wide basis.

Final Remarks

• Even if the current crisis has passed and more tolerant contamination thresholds have been established we could still have a very major disruption if the volcano were to recommence

• How prepared are we for another type of crisis?