VMT Research Paper

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Can A Mileage Based Tax System Replace an Outdated Fuel Tax? Kaleb Rogers Public Finance 04/03/2013

description

Describes Cost-Benefit Analysis of replacing the current, outdated fuel tax with a vehicle miles traveled tax.

Transcript of VMT Research Paper

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Can  A  Mileage  Based  Tax  System  Replace  an  Outdated  Fuel  Tax?  

Kaleb  Rogers  Public  Finance  04/03/2013  

                                     

     

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Introduction    

Public  Finance  is  defined  as  “the  field  of  economics  that  studies  government  activities  and  the  alternative  means  of  financing  government  expenditures”1.  The  Rhode  Island  State  Government,  as  well  as  those  of  other  states,  is  currently  facing  such  an  issue  in  the  form  of  the  growing  gap  between  transportation  revenues  and  expenditures.  The  fuel  tax,  which  is  a  common  generator  of  revenue  across  all  areas  of  the  US,  has  gradually  weakened  over  the  past  several  years  as  a  means  to  finance  the  transportation  expenditures  demanded  by  households  and  businesses.  Representative  Linda  Finn,  a  member  of  the  Rhode  Island  House  of  Representatives,  has  recently  inquired  on  the  implementation  of  a  Vehicle  Miles  Traveled  (VMT)  tax,  which  would  levy  tax  shares  on  gasoline  consumption  based  on  the  amount  of  mileage  one  drives  rather  than  the  gallons  purchased  to  fuel  one’s  car.  The  proposal  of  such  a  tax  reform  is  in  the  early  stages  of  development  nationwide.  The  proposal  is  especially  new  to  the  legislative  body  of  Rhode  Island.  Therefore,  in  order  to  examine  the  pursuit  of  the  VMT  tax,  this  paper  will  evaluate  the  studies  already  performed  by  other  states  and  institutions.  More  specifically,  The  Nevada  Department  of  Transportation  and  The  Oregon  Department  of  Transportation  have  previously  evaluated  the  transformation  from  a  fuel  tax  to  a  VMT  tax  system.  Representative  Finn  cited  both  of  these  documents  as  a  basis  for  the  potential  future  legislation  sought  after  by  the  Rhode  Island  State  Government.  Furthermore,  this  paper  will  describe  the  necessary  cost-­‐benefit  analysis  that  the  public  sector  must  perform  before  making  an  informed  decision  on  the  matter.       To  truly  understand  the  urgency  of  the  reformation  of  the  fuel  tax  system,  one  must  first  understand  the  intentions  of  policy  makers  and  econometricians  as  well  as  the  motivation  behind  their  proposals.  The  main  issue  with  the  current  fuel  tax  is  its  independency  from  inflation.  The  research  released  by  the  Nevada  Department  of  Transportation  titled,  Nevada  Vehicle  Miles  Traveled  (VMT)  Fee  Study  describes  the  lack  of  progression  in  the  taxable  portion  of  gasoline  in  the  state:    

“In  1993,  the  pump  price  of  a  gallon  of  fuel  was  about  $1.22  and  the  fuel  tax  per  gallon  was  about  53  cents…in  2009  the  price  of  a  gallon  of  fuel  raised  to  about  $3.10  per  gallon,  yet  the  fuel  tax  per  gallon  stayed  the  same  –  53  cents  per  gallon,  meaning  that  the  effective  fuel  rate  dropped  about  17%”  2    

The  fuel  tax  has  essentially  failed  to  increase  with  the  price  of  gasoline  and  the  rate  of  inflation  in  general.  In  real  terms  the  tax  revenue  generated  by  the  sale  of  gasoline  has  effectively  declined  over  the  past  couple  of  decades.  This  decline  in  revenue  is  independently  a  cause  for  concern  due  to  its  loss  of  influence  towards  government  financing;  however,  “due  to  an  increase  in  vehicle  miles  traveled  (VMT),  there  is  an  

                                                                                                               1  Hyman, David M. Public Finance: A Contemporary Application of Theory to Policy. 10th ed. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning, 2010,2011. 5. Print.  2  Tian, Zong Z., Eric B. Herzik, and Et Al. "Nevada Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fee Study Phase 1." Nevada Department of Transportation, Dec. 2012. Web. <http://www.nevadadot.com/uploadedFiles/NDOT/Documents/VMT%20FEE%20STUDY%20Bk.pdf>.  

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increasing  demand  for  highway  system  expansion”3.  The  gap  between  revenues  and  expenditures  in  the  transportation  division  of  state  governments  is  widened  not  only  by  the  static  fuel  tax  level,  but  also  by  the  increased  demand  for  publically  provided  roads.  Furthermore,  roads,  although  generally  considered  a  public  good,  are  more  accurately  described  as  congestible  public  good.  This  title  suggests  “crowding  or  congestion  reduces  the  benefits  to  existing  consumers  when  more  consumers  are  accommodated”4.  Because  of  the  eventual  congestion  of  this  public  good,  an  increase  in  vehicle  miles  traveled  combined  with  an  increasing  restriction  on  state’s  infrastructure  spending  is  currently  reducing  the  benefits  of  active  drivers.  Visually,  Figure  1  in  the  Appendix  shows  the  marginal  cost  of  a  congestible  good  after  N  consumers  are  accommodated.  On  a  congestible  road,  the  demand  curve  D2  results  in  more  than  the  efficient  output  of  vehicle  miles  traveled  where  MSC>MSB  if  the  cost  of  travel  is  zero.       Finally,  to  contribute  to  the  already  falling  revenues  generated  by  a  constant  fuel  tax  rate,  the  movement  towards  more  fuel-­‐efficient  cars  such  as  hybrids  has  further  reduced  the  consumption  of  gasoline.  Gasoline  may  be  viewed  as  a  relatively  inelastic  good.  Due  to  the  increasing  necessity  of  quick  transportation  by  both  consumers  and  firms,  the  aforementioned  price  increases  in  gasoline  initially  had  a  negligible  effect  on  the  consumers’  quantity  demanded  in  the  short  run.  However,  “when  it  comes  to  buying  a  new  car,  consumers  can  buy  a  more  fuel-­‐efficient  one,  or  one  that  uses  an  alternative  energy  source.  Thus,  the  quantity  of  gas  demanded  falls  by  larger  amounts  in  the  long  run  than  in  the  short  run”5.  Initially,  the  constant  tax  level  may  have  been  a  minor  issue  due  to  the  constant  levels  of  fuel  consumption  in  the  short  run.  Unfortunately,  in  the  long  run,  firms  have  adapted  to  the  increasing  price  of  gasoline  by  developing  substitutes  such  as  hybrid  cars.  Consumers,  now  with  an  incentive  to  buy  more  fuel-­‐efficient  cars,  will  consume  less  gasoline  in  the  aggregate.  Therefore,  total  fuel  tax  revenues  suffer  even  more  so.       Next,  before  evaluating  the  costs  and  benefits  of  the  potential  VMT  fee,  one  must  understand  a  basic  outline  of  its  characteristics.  There  have  been  a  variety  of  techniques  suggested  by  several  different  studies,  but  researches  have  suggested  some  of  the  more  promising  options.  Mileage  metering  based  on  fuel  consumption  estimates  the  charges  levied  on  the  consumer  when  purchasing  gas,  which  is  based  on  each  vehicles  fuel  economy  rating  as  well  as  other  attributes.  This  information  can  be  transmitted  through  a  registration  sticker  embedded  on  each  vehicle.6  This  method  is  praised  for  having  a  relatively  low  cost  and  simple  transition  relative  to  alternative  methods.  Conversely,  at  the  other  extreme  is  the  option  titled,  coarse-­‐

                                                                                                               3  Tian, Zong Z., Eric B. Herzik, and Et Al. "Nevada Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fee Study Phase 1." Nevada Department of Transportation, Dec. 2012. Web. <http://www.nevadadot.com/uploadedFiles/NDOT/Documents/VMT%20FEE%20STUDY%20Bk.pdf>.  4  Hyman, David M. Public Finance: A Contemporary Application of Theory to Policy. 10th ed. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning, 2010,2011. 151. Print  5  Taylor, John B., and Akila Weerapana. Principles of Microeconomics. 6th ed. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2009. Cengage Learning. Web.  6  Slone, Sean. "Vehicle Miles Traveled Fees." The Council of State Governments, 2009. Web. 01 Apr. 2013.  

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resolution  GPS-­‐based  metering,  which  is  the  method  used  in  The  Oregon  Department  of  Transportation  Pilot  Project.  This  method  uses  GPS  technology  to  “identify  the  jurisdiction  in  which  travel  takes  place  without  identifying  the  specific  route  of  travel”  7  This  method  may  be  more  accurate,  and  therefore  more  efficient,  than  the  previous  fuel  consumption  based  measurement.  Furthermore,  this  option  may  be  capable  of  achieving  low  cost  production  if  developed  on  a  large  enough  scale.  There  are  several  other  methods  described  in  the  various  studies;  however,  the  VMT  fee  generally  consists  of  two  main  components:  the  tracking  of  vehicle  miles  traveled  and  the  charge  for  traveling  those  miles  levied  at  the  fuel  station.  The  common  features  of  the  VMT  fee  across  studies  are  effectively  portrayed  by  Figure  2  in  the  Appendix,  which  is  taken  directly  from  the  study  conducted  by  the  Oregon  Department  of  Transportation.8  The  next  section  will  begin  the  cost  benefit  analysis  that  must  ensue  in  order  to  effectively  determine  if  the  project  is  worth  consideration.      

 Cost  –  Benefit  Analysis  

 In  Public  Finance,  cost-­‐benefit  analysis  is  used  to  determine  the  merit  of  

potential  public  projects.  The  main  intention  of  this  analysis  is  to  ensure  that  projects  with  marginal  social  costs  that  exceed  the  marginal  social  benefits  are  not  considered.  Conversely,  projects  that  may  yield  positive  net  benefits  pass  this  screening  process  and  are  likely  to  be  pursued.  The  three  main  steps  involved  in  this  analysis  are:  Enumerating  the  costs  and  benefits  of  the  proposed  project,  evaluating  these  costs  and  benefits  in  dollar  terms,  and  discounting  future  net  benefits  to  a  present  value  comparable  with  the  current  costs  of  pursuing  the  project9.  To  begin  this  process,  the  advantages  (benefits)  and  disadvantages  (costs)  of  the  project  must  first  be  listed  and  evaluated.  Because  this  paper  intends  to  merely  outline  the  process  of  this  cost-­‐benefit  analysis,  it  will  not  make  use  of  specific  enumerated  or  dollar  values.    

 Benefits  

Of  all  the  suggested  advantages  in  the  conducted  studies,  the  most  obvious  and  easily  quantified  benefits  are  those  relating  to  the  potential  revenue  realized  after  the  reform  has  been  put  into  place.  In  2007,  RAND  (Research  ANd  Development)  Corporation’s  evaluation  of  the  VMT  tax,  Final  Report  -­‐  Volume  III:  Section  1  -­‐  Technical  Issues  Papers,  concludes  that  VMT  tolling  would  have  significant  

                                                                                                               7  Slone, Sean. "Vehicle Miles Traveled Fees." The Council of State Governments, 2009. Web. 01 Apr. 2013.  8  Whitty, James. "The Revised VMT Taxation Concept and A New Road Usage Charge Pilot Program." The Oregon Department of Motor Vehicles, 08 Feb. 2012. Web. 01 Apr. 2013.  9  Hyman, David M. Public Finance: A Contemporary Application of Theory to Policy. 10th ed. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning, 2010,2011. 234. Print.  

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revenue  potential  limited  only  by  political  considerations.  Furthermore,  the  study  predicts  that  the  revenue  generated  would  be  much  more  stable  due  to  its  dependency  on  vehicle  travel,  which  also  determines  road  maintenance.  Finally,  the  revenues  generated  would  be  more  equitably  distributed  because  VMT  fees  can  measure  the  amount  of  travel  occurring  in  different  jurisdictions  and  distribute  revenue  accordingly.  10  For  the  purpose  of  the  cost  benefit  analysis,  these  revenues  must  first  be  forecasted  into  the  future.  One  must  predict  the  aggregate  miles  traveled  per  state.  Next,  the  total  miles  traveled  must  be  applied  to  the  VMT  system  chosen  by  the  State  Government.  As  will  be  described  in  following  sections,  the  Nevada  study  outlines  a  variety  of  VMT  structures  that  will  yield  alternative  revenue  levels.  Finally,  the  benefits  calculated  in  this  manner  must  be  discounted  in  order  to  compare  them  with  the  costs  of  pursuing  the  project.    

  A  second  benefit  put  forth  by  various  researches  is  the  bold  claim  that  the  movement  towards  a  vehicle  miles  travel  based  tax  system  will  improve  not  only  the  economic  efficiency  of  resource  allocation,  but  also  that  the  change  may  improve  the  equity  of  tax  shares  levied  on  users.  As  in  the  previous  revenue  analysis,  this  statement  also  depends  on  the  tax  structure  chosen  by  the  state.  To  better  understand  the  quality  of  this  proposed  benefit,  one  must  understand  these  various  system  structures.  The  paper  published  by  the  Nevada  Department  of  Transportation  outlines  a  variety  of  systems.  The  four  main  categories  described  are  the  single  fee  system,  the  multiple  fee  system,  the  generalized  user  fee  system,  and  the  pay-­‐as-­‐you-­‐go  system.    The  single  fee  system  charges  a  flat  tax  rate  per  mile.  The  multiple  fee  system  groups  vehicles  into  categories  based  on  their  makes,  models,  years  of  production,  etc.  and  charges  a  different  fee  based  on  the  given  classification.  The  generalized  user  fee  system  incorporates  all  of  the  aspects  of  the  multiple  fee  system  while  also  defining  the  charge  as  a  function  of  the  time  of  day,  area  of  travel,  etc.  Finally,  the  pay-­‐as-­‐you  go  system  can  adopt  any  of  the  previously  described  structures,  but  the  total  charge  must  amount  to  some  predetermined  value  predicted  for  total  transportation  expenditures  in  a  fiscal  year.  This  method  would  avoid  an  account  deficit  or  surplus  from  accumulating.11  These  various  structures  listed  for  the  VMT  fee  generally  increase  in  efficiency  as  they  become  more  complex.  

  The  single  fee,  which  is  the  simplest  of  the  four  systems,  would  charge  a  flat  rate  per  mile  traveled.  Assuming  that  the  quantity  of  publicly  provided  roads  has  been  increasing  as  suggested  by  the  study,  one  may  consider  transportation  spending  as  a  public  good.  Because  each  individual  would  pay  the  same  tax  share,  the  single  fee  model  may  be  viewed  in  the  context  of  the  political  equilibrium  model  under  majority  rule.  The  quantity  of  transportation  spending,  therefore,  will  depend  on  the  uniform  tax  rate  chosen,  as  well  as  the  marginal  benefit  experienced  by                                                                                                                  10  "Final Report - Volume III: Section 1 - Technical Issues Papers." National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Commission. RAND Corporation, 19 Jan. 2007. Web. 02 Apr. 2013.  11  Tian, Zong Z., Eric B. Herzik, and Et Al. "Nevada Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fee Study Phase 1." Nevada Department of Transportation, Dec. 2012. Web. <http://www.nevadadot.com/uploadedFiles/NDOT/Documents/VMT%20FEE%20STUDY%20Bk.pdf>.  

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individual  consumers,  in  the  aggregate,  resulting  from  transportation.  Figure  3  in  the  Appendix  outlines  the  determination  of  this  equilibrium.  Assuming  constant  costs  for  transportation  and  infrastructure  spending,  the  average  cost  of  producing  one  ‘unit  of  transportation’  is  X  dollars.  The  distribution  of  tax  shares  at  a  uniform  rate  suggests  that  each  of  the  5  consumers  in  the  graph  will  pay  a  tax  of  X/5  dollars  per  gallon.  Because  of  each  consumer’s  varying  marginal  benefits,  only  the  median  voter  will  consume  his  most  preferred  outcome  of  transportation  (N  units)  given  the  tax  share  determined  by  majority  rule.  Due  to  the  fact  that  only  the  median  voter  consumes  his  most  preferred  output,  there  are  political  externalities  present  resulting  from  the  inability  of  other  voters  to  consume  their  most  preferred  level  of  transportation.  When  such  externalities  are  present,  additional  gains  to  voters  are  possible  either  through  changes  in  output  or  tax  shares.12  This  inefficiency  may  be  viewed  as  point  A  in  Figure  4  in  the  Appendix.  At  this  point,  Pareto  Optimality  has  not  been  achieved  because  there  are  potential  gains  in  well  being  to  some  without  reducing  the  well  being  of  others.13  

  The  progression  to  more  sophisticated  structures  of  the  VMT  tax  system  result  in  increases  in  efficiency  and  equity.  The  movement  from  the  single  to  multiple  fee  based  system  allows  for  the  cost  of  gasoline  to  more  accurately  reflect  the  marginal  benefits  experienced  by  individual  consumers.  Consumers  will  also  contribute  funds  that  more  accurately  reflect  the  car  they  drive,  and  therefore  the  damages  caused  to  the  transportation  infrastructure,  environment,  etc.  This  system  may  be  seen  again  in  Figure  4  as  a  movement  to  point  B.  The  change  in  the  allocation  of  costs  based  on  vehicle  make,  year,  etc.  results  in  a  more  equitable  distribution  of  taxes  reflecting  the  costs  associated  with  an  individuals  operation  of  their  vehicle.    Furthermore,  the  use  of  a  more  advanced  system  more  accurately  reflects  the  benefit  principle  of  taxation  in  which  the  taxes,  or  marginal  costs,  of  individuals  using  a  government-­‐provided  good  are  equal  to  their  marginal  private  benefits.    

  Moving  on,  the  generalized  user  fee  system  incorporates  not  only  the  characteristics  of  the  vehicle  but  also  the  time  of  day  and  area  associated  with  that  individual’s  traveling.  This  method  bears  the  heaviest  contrast  to  the  gas  tax,  which  fails  to  effectively  allocate  taxes  to  those  who  contribute  the  most  damage  to  the  transportation  infrastructure.  In  this  case,  the  consumption  of  transportation  can  be  seen  as  generating  negative  externalities.  The  generalized  fee  system  would  act  as  a  corrective  tax  to  internalize  this  negative  externality  and  force  those  who  induce  greater  costs  to  pay  greater  taxes,  which  would  cause  those  with  more  damaging  vehicles  to  incorporate  the  marginal  external  costs  of  their  consumption  of  transportation  in  their  marginal  analysis.  14  This  internalization  can  be  seen  in  Figure  5  of  the  appendix.    On  the  graph  the  original  Marginal  Private  Cost  fails  to  

                                                                                                               12  Hyman, David M. Public Finance: A Contemporary Application of Theory to Policy. 10th ed. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning, 2010,2011. 183. Print.  13  Ibid  14  Ibid  

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incorporate  the  external  costs  associated  with  driving  a  vehicle  producing  negative  externalities.  Furthermore,  the  cost  does  not  consider  the  time  of  day  the  vehicle  is  being  used.  The  cost  of  accommodating  an  additional  vehicle  during  ‘rush  hour’  will  be  much  higher  than  the  cost  of  accommodating  the  same  vehicle  in  the  middle  of  the  night.  The  generalized  user  fee  system  forces  the  consumer  to  incorporate  those  costs,  which  results  in  the  shifting  of  the  MPC  line  to  the  MSC  line.  The  new  equilibrium  occurs  at  point  B.  The  tax  revenue  collected  by  the  internalization  is  P1CBP2.  Vehicle  miles  traveled  are  also  reduced,  which  will  likely  reduce  congestion  during  peak  driving  hours.  The  increased  revenue  may  be  used  to  construct  new,  less  congestible  roads,  develop  even  more  fuel-­‐efficient  technology,  etc.  This  analysis  supports  the  Council  of  State  Governments  claim  that  “the  main  goal  of  the  VMT  fee  is  to  make  the  principle  of  ‘the  user  pays’  more  of  a  reality”15  Referring  back  to  Figure  1,  this  analysis  would  suggest  that  the  marginal  cost  incurred  at  point  N  would  begin  being  compensated  for  by  the  consumers  contributing  to  congestion.  Finally,  this  reform  would  further  contribute  to  the  attainment  of  efficiency  and  equity  represented  by  the  movement  from  Point  A  to  Point  B  on  the  Utility-­‐Possibility  curve  of  Figure  4.  This  efficiency  can  also  be  seen  in  Figure  1,  by  the  efficient  output  reached  at  equilibrium  E*,  when  drivers  are  charged  P*  for  congestible  roads  and  driving  hours.    

  One  final  point  on  the  efficiency  of  the  VMT  tax  is  worth  noting.  Assuming  the  implementation  of  the  generalized  user  fee  system,  one  may  assume  that  transportation  infrastructure  moves  closer  to  the  spectrum  of  a  pure  public  good  due  to  the  reduced  congestion  resulting  from  higher  fees  at  peak  driving  hours  (however,  roads  still  VMT  still  maintains  price  excludability).  If  one  accepts  this  assumption  then  the  efficient  output  of  vehicle  miles  traveled  will  occur  at  the  point  where  the  “sum  of  marginal  private  benefits  of  consumers  equals  the  marginal  social  cost  of  the  good”16.  Because  the  generalized  user  fee  system  incorporates  all  conceivable  costs  of  vehicle  miles  traveled,  one  may  assume  that  each  individual  contributes  a  tax  share  equivalent  to  their  marginal  private  benefit.  This  equilibrium,  called  the  Lindahl  Equilibrium,  is  portrayed  in  Figure  6  of  the  appendix.  Unlike  the  political  equilibrium,  consumers  are  assigned  a  ‘Lindahl  Price’,  which  reflects  their  marginal  private  benefit.17  Therefore,  the  political  externalities  present  in  the  political  equilibrium  model  are  eliminated  with  a  more  sophisticated  VMT  fee  structure.  The  efficient  output  produced  is  Q*,  and  the  tax  paid  by  each  consumer  is  equivalent  to  the  marginal  private  benefit  enjoyed  by  that  consumer  when  vehicle  miles  traveled  equals  Q*.    

  Finally,  the  pay-­‐as-­‐you-­‐go  fee  system  may  incorporate  any  of  the  previously  discussed  methods;  however,  this  method  first  estimates  the  total  transportation  expenditures  for  an  upcoming  fiscal  year.  Based  on  this  prediction,  the  total  vehicle                                                                                                                  15   Slone, Sean. "Vehicle Miles Traveled Fees." The Council of State Governments, 2009. Web. 01 Apr. 2013.  16  Hyman, David M. Public Finance: A Contemporary Application of Theory to Policy. 10th ed. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning, 2010,2011. 160. Print.  17  Ibid  

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miles  traveled  per  area  are  also  predicted.  Next,  the  VMT  fee  can  be  determined  based  on  these  predictions,  which  will  result  in  the  prevention  of  a  surplus  or  revenue  resulting  for  the  VMT  fee.18  

  In  the  context  of  the  cost-­‐benefit  analysis,  the  various  benefits  discussed  above  must  been  evaluated  in  dollar  terms,  summed,  and  discounted  from  their  future  to  present  values  using  the  social  rate  of  discount.  The  social  rate  of  discount  ‘should  reflect  the  return  that  can  be  earned  on  resources  employed  in  alternative  private  use’19.    

Costs  

  The  next  step  in  evaluating  the  VMT  project  is  determining  the  total  costs  or  disadvantages  of  the  project.  Some  of  the  costs,  like  the  benefits,  are  obvious  and  take  the  form  of  expenditures  used  to  finance  the  project.  However,  some  costs  are  more  difficult  to  enumerate.  Obviously,  the  costs  incurred  depend  directly  on  the  structural  system  used  to  implement  the  tax.  This  section  will  outline  the  forecasted  costs  based  on  the  existing  research.  Furthermore,  it  will  attempt  to  incorporate  actions  that  may  be  taken  to  minimize  the  more  concerning  costs.    

  The  costs  most  easily  evaluated  are  the  initial  capital  expenditures  required  to  finance  the  project.  The  aforementioned  RAND  corporation  predicts  that  the  initial  investment  will  be  quite  substantial:  

“Onboard  equipment  would  likely  cost  around  $100  per  vehicle.  There  would  also  need  to  be  additional  upfront  investment  in  the  information  systems  required  to  collect  and  distribute  revenues.  After  that,  automation  should  yield  cost-­‐efficiencies  once  the  investments  are  made”20.  

Like  most  government  projects,  the  majority  of  the  investment  costs  are  incurred  during  the  early  stages  of  the  project.  After  the  projects  completion,  costs  drop  substantially  as  benefits  begin  to  be  realized  simultaneously.  The  only  remaining  expenditures  after  this  initial  investment  are  maintenance,  administration,  enforcement,  etc.    These  initial  implementation  costs  obviously  increase  with  the  sophistication  of  the  system  that  is  chosen.  The  Mileage  Metering  Based  On  Consumption  System  mentioned  earlier  would  obviously  have  a  very  low  cost.  The  single  fee  system  is  also  expected  to  have  a  relatively  low  cost.  As  expected,  more  complex  systems  such  as  the  multiple  fee  system  and  the  generalized  user-­‐fee                                                                                                                  18  Tian, Zong Z., Eric B. Herzik, and Et Al. "Nevada Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fee Study Phase 1." Nevada Department of Transportation, Dec. 2012. Web. <http://www.nevadadot.com/uploadedFiles/NDOT/Documents/VMT%20FEE%20STUDY%20Bk.pdf>.  19  Hyman, David M. Public Finance: A Contemporary Application of Theory to Policy. 10th ed. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning, 2010,2011. 238. Print.  20  "Final Report - Volume III: Section 1 - Technical Issues Papers." National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Commission. RAND Corporation, 19 Jan. 2007. Web. 02 Apr. 2013.  

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system  will  have  “additional  costs  to  implement  the  various  user  fee  systems  because  data  on  gas  efficiency  has  to  be  obtained  for  all  makes  and  models”21.  One  can  see  the  correlation  developing  here  in  which  the  models  that  yield  the  highest  efficiency  tend  to  also  yield  the  highest  implementation  costs.  Therefore,  effective  cots-­‐benefit  analysis  is  necessary  to  determine  whether  the  marginal  social  benefits  are  less  or  greater  than  the  marginal  social  costs.    

  Some  of  the  other  costs  addressed  by  the  current  research  are  the  costs  of  enforcement,  administration,  transition,  etc.  According  to  the  Oregon  Study,  the  costs  of  transitioning  can  be  minimized  via  the  ‘pay  at  the  pump  system’.  The  study  goes  on  to  outline  the  methodology  that  should  be  used  the  total  costs  of  the  project:  

“Administration  of  the  VMT  charge  is  automated  and  integrated  easily  into  existing  transaction  processes…The  costs  would  include  capital  costs  for  mileage  reading  equipment  at  service  stations,  costs  of  on-­‐vehicle  equipment  to  be  determined  by  auto  manufacturers,  and  state  operating  costs  for  auditing,  enforcement,  administration,  and  communication”22.  

The  Oregon  Study  essentially  supports  the  conclusions  held  by  the  RAND  corporation  that  the  initial  implementation  may  be  somewhat  costly,  but  the  system  will  eventually  become  low  cost  and  self-­‐sustaining  while  yielding  high  net  benefits  into  the  foreseeable  future.  This  process  is  also  not  intended  to  occur  rapidly.  The  Oregon  study  predicts  that  the  entire  process  will  occur  over  a  period  of  about  ten  years  once  it  has  begun.  Oregon’s  proposal  can  be  seen  as  incremental  budgeting,  which  “bases  the  current  years  budget  on  the  previous  year’s  budget  with  only  minor  changes  in  funding  levels  for  various  programs  included  in  the  budget”23.  Obviously,  such  a  radical  change  in  the  daily  operations  of  nearly  all  businesses  and  households  cannot  occur  too  rapidly.  Rather  the  process  must  be  somewhat  slowly  adopted  in  order  to  allow  necessary  time  to  accommodate  the  reform.    

  Finally,  arguably  the  biggest  cost,  which  is  inconveniently  also  the  most  abstract,  is  the  cost  of  privacy  to  those  who  feel  they  are  being  ‘tracked’  by  the  VMT  fee  system.  In  the  literature  review  section  of  the  Nevada  Study,  the  research  states  “one  study  revealed  that  no  matter  how  clearly  the  privacy  protection  strategies  were  explained,  there  were  still  people  who  were  against  the  idea  of  using  GPS  technology  for  charging  mileage  user  fees”24.  Obviously,  a  drastic  change  in  the                                                                                                                  21  Tian, Zong Z., Eric B. Herzik, and Et Al. "Nevada Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fee Study Phase 1." Nevada Department of Transportation, Dec. 2012. Web. <http://www.nevadadot.com/uploadedFiles/NDOT/Documents/VMT%20FEE%20STUDY%20Bk.pdf>.  22  Whitty, James. "The Revised VMT Taxation Concept and A New Road Usage Charge Pilot Program." The Oregon Department of Motor Vehicles, 08 Feb. 2012. Web. 01 Apr. 2013.  23  Hyman, David M. Public Finance: A Contemporary Application of Theory to Policy. 10th ed. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning, 2010,2011. 233. Print.  24  Tian, Zong Z., Eric B. Herzik, and Et Al. "Nevada Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fee Study Phase 1." Nevada Department of Transportation, Dec. 2012. Web. <http://www.nevadadot.com/uploadedFiles/NDOT/Documents/VMT%20FEE%20STUDY%20Bk.pdf>.

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carrying  out  of  everyday  operations  will  meet  some  political  opposition.  The  solution  to  such  a  problem  is  to  develop  solutions  to  the  skepticism  of  the  systems  critics  and  to  effectively  inform  the  public  of  such  solutions.  The  Oregon  study  performs  the  latter  by  introducing  the  fact  that,    

“The  on-­‐vehicle  device  designed  did  not  send  an  identifying  signal  out  to  denote  vehicle’s  real  time  travel.  Thus,  a  vehicle’s  movements  were  not  tracked  by  anyone.  Also,  the  on-­‐vehicle  device  did  not  retain  any  travel  history.  No  one,  therefore  with  a  search  warrant  or  court  order  could  obtain  that  travel  history  because  no  travel  history  exists”  25  

This  solution  actually  sounds  quite  promising.  The  argument  gains  some  momentum  when  one  introduces  the  fact  that  most  modern  vehicles  have  GPS  technology  embedded  in  them  already.  Furthermore,  the  development  of  information  technology  has  incorporated  GPS  components  into  everything  from  laptop  computers  to  mobile  phones,  which  most  consumers  are  already  likely  to  possess.  Unfortunately,  the  proposed  solution  is  only  a  small  portion  of  the  cost  of  privacy.  The  true  bulk  of  the  cost  emerges  in  the  communication  and  persuasion  of  the  public  that  this  solution  is  actually  viable  and  legitimate.  These  political  transaction  costs  include  all  of  the  “time,  effort,  and  other  resources  expended  to  reach  and  enforce  a  collective  agreement”26.  Despite  how  practical  the  VMT  tax  may  be  in  theory,  informing  and  persuading  the  public  may  be  the  largest  milestone  standing  in  the  way  of  its  implementation.    

  Like  the  benefits  of  the  project,  the  costs  must  also  be  summed,  so  that  the  two  can  be  compared.  The  costs  that  occur  in  the  future  may  also  be  discounted  to  their  present  value;  however,  unlike  benefits,  many  costs  are  generally  incurred  immediately  and  represent  their  present  value  when  they  are  expended.    

Conclusion  

  After  evaluating,  enumerating,  and  discounting  all  relevant  costs  and  benefits,  there  are  two  methods,  which  may  be  used  to  determine  the  viability  of  the  project.  The  net  benefit  criterion,  which  discounts  the  summation  of  the  difference  between  benefits  and  costs,  can  be  used  to  rank  a  specific  project.  If  the  calculated  value  is  positive,  then  the  project  is  worthy  of  being  considered.  The  second  method,  the  Benefit-­‐Cost  ratio,  operates  similarly  but  rather  calculates  the  ratio  of  the  summation  of  discounted  benefits  divided  by  costs.  Projects  evaluated  in  this  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           25  Whitty, James. "The Revised VMT Taxation Concept and A New Road Usage Charge Pilot Program." The Oregon Department of Motor Vehicles, 08 Feb. 2012. Web. 01 Apr. 2013.  26  Hyman, David M. Public Finance: A Contemporary Application of Theory to Policy. 10th ed. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning, 2010,2011. 186. Print.  

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manner  pass  the  screening  for  consideration  if  the  calculated  value  is  greater  than  one.27  

  After  conducting  this  previous,  positive  economic  analysis,  the  final  step  for  informed  policymakers  and  economists  is  to  make  a  normative  economic  judgment.  Personally,  without  doing  the  extensive  calculations  and  developing  proxies  for  the  more  abstract  costs  and  benefits,  I  feel  the  project  seems  viable.  Obviously,  the  fuel  tax  is  failing  to  finance  the  increasing  demand  for  transportation  spending,  and  a  drastic  change  is  needed  to  compensate  for  the  growing  deficit.  However,  this  normative  analysis  is  merely  an  opinion.  Unfortunately,  “it  remains  difficult  to  measure  the  benefit  of  government  goods  and  services  accurately  because  differences  of  opinions  exist  regarding  what  benefits  and  costs  to  include  and  how  to  value  the  output  of  various  projects”28.  

 

 

 

   

                                                                                                                                                   27  Hyman, David M. Public Finance: A Contemporary Application of Theory to Policy. 10th ed. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning, 2010,2011. 242. Print.  28  Hyman, David M. Public Finance: A Contemporary Application of Theory to Policy. 10th ed. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning, 2010,2011. 255. Print.  

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Appendix    

       Figure  1:  Congestible  Public  Good              

        D1   D2           MSC    

      P*   E*         0     1   N   N’                              

Marginal  Cost  

Vehicle  Miles  Traveled  

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Figure  2:  The  Oregon  Study  Model        

                               

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Figure  3:  Single  Fee  System  Political  Equilibrium  Under  Majority  Rule           ΣMB                              X   AC=MC          

        MB1                        MB2                      MB3                              MB4                              MB5    X/5  

       

N          Figure  4:  Utility  Frontier      

       

                               

MB,  MC,  T  

Vehicle  Miles  Traveled  

Person  A  

Person  B  

B  A  

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Figure  5:  Internalization  of  Negative  Externality           MPC+T=MSC         MPC                  P2   B     A         C              P1     D=MSB  

           Figure  6:  Lindahl  Equilibrium  Using  The  Generalized  User  Fee  System    

           

E                                                                                                                                                                                                                  MC=AC=MSC                                                                                                                                                                                          D=ΣMBi=MSB             MBA       MBB     MBC      

             Q*    

Vehicle  Miles  Traveled  

Price,  Benefit,  and  Cost  

Vehicle  Miles  Traveled  

Marginal  Benefit  and  Marginal  Cost