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  • 11-Aug-03 IC Inv: 11-Aug-03 Nodes: 11-Aug-03 BB Rto: 11-Aug-03 QtrFcst: 11-Aug-03 CPPI: 11-Aug-03 Ttl Cpcty: 11-Aug-03 Utlztn: 11-Aug-03Eq & IC Rev's: 11-Aug-03 AnnFcst: 11-Aug-03

    Camera:

    1754 Technology Drive, Ste. 117, San Jose, CA 95110-1308 • Ph: 408 453-8844 • Fax: 408 437-0608 TCI 30811.00 email: [email protected] https://www.vlsiresearch.com

    Cameras Used by The Chip Insider to take the photos: Canon D60, 28-300mm zoom lens Canon D60, 100-400mm Canon zoom lens Nikon Coolpix 5700, Nikkor 8.9-71.2mm Lens Delete & Insert Photo Sony F-505V, Carl Zeiss zoom lens. Update Photo Label

    Change Dates Locations: Update Sheet Revisions Photo: Montebello Open Space Preserve, CA Spell Check Photo: Palo Alto Baylands Nature Preserve, CA Break Links Photo: Sacramento National Wildlife Refuge, CA Title: The Chip Insider®'s Graphics File

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    Where the Chip Making Industry Clicks to Find its Weather VLSI Research Inc The Chip Insider's Graphics File

    Canon D60, 28-300mm zoom lensPhoto: Chaco Culture National Historical Park, N.M

    Climate Trends:

    This report is confidential and for the use of VLSI Research Inc and its Clients only. Feel free to distribute it within your company. Your company's license does not allow you to send it outside your organization without VLSI Research Inc's permission. This report contains VLSI Research's analysi

    information which in some cases has been furnished to VLSI Research by responsible persons on the understanding that it will be released by VLSI Research only to a limited audience and not be made widely available or that its release will be restricted due to its confidential nature. Publication of this report is not intended to constitute a disclosure to the public of the information contained in this report. Although data was obtained from sources considered reliable, it cannot be guaranteed. No independent steps have been taken to confirm its accuracy, truthfulness, or completeness. Printed in the United States of America. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used in any legal proceedings nor may any information contained

    herein be disclosed to any third party, or reproduced, or transmitted to any third party, in any form or by any means -- mechanical, electronic, photocopying, duplicating, microfilming, videotape, verbally or otherwise -- without prior written permission of VLSI Research. Copyright © 2003 by VL

    Research Inc.

    New Orders are Haunted by the Ghosts of Old Nodes, While Storm Fears

    Threaten.

    For Spreadsheets: 1. For best viewing results, resize by changing size percentage to a size that fits within your monitor settings and limitations. 2. To paste into Microsoft PowerPoint (tm)): click on chart, copy, and then paste into a PowerPoint slide. 3. Tabs are updated as indicated in rows 6 & 7 by highlighting text and date.

    General Instructions Use Restrictions

    August 11, 2003

    Sheet Revisions

    ®

  • VLSI's GLOBAL CHIP MAKING CLIMATE TREND INDEX (Average of Regional Order Activity Patterns in Chip Equipment)

    -20 -10

    0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

    100 110 120

    D ec

    -9 8

    Fe b-

    99

    Ap r-

    99

    Ju n-

    99

    Au g-

    99

    O ct

    -9 9

    N ov

    -9 9

    Ja n-

    00

    M ar

    -0 0

    M ay

    -0 0

    Ju l-0

    0

    Se p-

    00

    O ct

    -0 0

    D ec

    -0 0

    Fe b-

    01

    Ap r-

    01

    Ju n-

    01

    Au g-

    01

    O ct

    -0 1

    N ov

    -0 1

    Ja n-

    02

    M ar

    -0 2

    M ay

    -0 2

    Ju l-0

    2

    Se p-

    02

    O ct

    -0 2

    D ec

    -0 2

    Fe b-

    03

    Ap r-

    03

    Ju n-

    03

    Au g-

    03

    Week

    Te m

    pe ra

    tu re

    in D

    eg re

    es F

    9/113/01: Cisco &

    Moto Warn

    4/01: Nokia & Ericsson

    Warn

    2/00: VLSI's CPPI Signals 1st Sign of Downturn

    Mar to Dec 2000: Repeated Chip Insider Warnings of Short Upturn.

    TCI Calls 2000 the "2 for 1 Deal "

    RESTRICTED DATA: for access and use only within your company, as per your company's agreement with VLSI Research Inc. Copyright © 2003 by VLSI Research Inc.

    Negative Concerns: - Chip mkrs focus on P&Ls - Pricing pressure down the chain - No market share loss fears - Natural Gas Price Rise in U.S. - Japan's Nuclear Power Crisis - Few New Demand Drivers - EU and JA in Recession

    Positive Factors: + U.S. Economy remains healthy + EU & JA Economy picking up. + Tax Cuts + Refi's + Auto Incntvs + Int Rte Cuts + Corp Bond Ylds Lo + $'s decline + CapEx @ Rcrd Lo's + IC Inv Low + Chip Prices strong + Chip Capacity Utilization

    6/02: Cisco first talks of telecom

    spending recovery in 2003

    2/01: TSMC Warns

    11/02: Dell

    Warns.

    Decline Line Growth

    1/03: Intel, TSMC, & UMC cut

    spending.

    5/02: TCI Signals new dip.

    Last week's hopes that the slowing was a fluke proved wrong. We saw the first push-outs in some time (they came in Europe). There is

    weakness throughout. The reason is not due to declines, it's the result of companies trying to clean up P&L's and Balance Sheets. Problem is, the supply chain is doing this by pushing down prices, which pushes the profitability

    5/03: TCI says weak upturn underway.

  • VLSI's Spot Market Chip Price Performance Index

    10

    100

    1000

    1/3/1999

    2/14/1999

    3/28/1999

    5/9/1999

    6/20/1999

    8/1/1999

    9/12/1999

    10/24/1999

    12/5/1999

    1/16/2000

    2/27/2000

    4/9/2000

    5/21/2000

    7/2/2000

    8/13/2000

    9/24/2000

    11/5/2000

    12/17/2000

    1/28/2001

    3/12/2001

    4/23/2001

    6/4/2001

    7/16/2001

    8/27/2001

    10/8/2001

    11/19/2001

    12/31/2001

    2/11/2002

    3/25/2002

    5/6/2002

    6/17/2002

    7/29/2002

    9/9/2002

    10/21/2002

    12/2/2002

    1/13/2003

    2/24/2003

    4/7/2003

    5/19/2003

    6/30/2003

    8/11/2003

    Week Ending

    VLSI's CPPI

    24 Month Moore's Law Cycle

    12 Month Moore's Law Cycle

    RESTRICTED DATA: for access and use only within your company, as per your company's agreement with VLSI Research Inc. Copyright © 2003 by VLSI Research Inc.

    CPPI: Up Logic: Stable Memory: Unstable to Rising

    The commodity of commodities, DRAM, is no longer a commodity. DRAM spot prices are up 34% since May 12th (better than stocks!).

    Contract prices have been below spot for some time and DRAM makers are confidently predicting shortages. DRAM makers have finally learned the lesson of supply and demand and that controlling supply nets better pricing and profitability Fewer suppliers help (only 4 have >10% shr)

  • 11-Aug-03 TCI 30811.03Last Update:

    2001 2002

    IC Inventories

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    JA N

    ' 99

    FE B

    M A

    R A

    P R

    M A

    Y JU

    N JU

    L A

    U G

    S E

    P O

    C T

    N O

    V D

    E C

    JA N

    ' 00

    FE B

    M A

    R A

    P R

    M A

    Y JU

    N JU

    L A

    U G

    S E

    P T

    O C

    T N

    O V

    D

    E C

    JA N

    ' 01

    FE B

    M

    A R

    A

    P R

    M A

    Y JU

    N JU

    L A

    U G

    S

    E P

    O

    C T

    N O

    V

    D E

    C

    JA N

    ' 02

    FE B

    M

    A R

    A P

    R

    M A

    Y JU

    N JU

    L A

    U G

    S E

    P

    O C

    T N

    O V

    D

    E C

    JA N

    ' 03

    FE B

    M

    A R

    A

    P R

    M

    A Y

    JU

    N

    JU L

    P A

    U G

    F

    IC In

    ve nt

    or y

    in $

    B

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    3.5

    4

    I:B R

    at io

    IC Inventory ($B) IC Inventory to Billings Ratio

    RESTRICTED DATA: for access and use only within your company, as per your company's agreement with VLSI Research Inc. Copyright © 2003 by VLSI Research Inc.

    IC inventories are starting to kick back up. As said last month, chip makers' customers are

    not pulling away. It's still a soft end demand

    environment, which is why fear dominates the spending environment.

  • 11-Aug-03 TCI 30811.04Last Update:

    Realized Versus Total Capacity

    65%

    70%

    75%

    80%

    85%

    90%

    95%

    100% '9

    9 JA

    N FE

    B M

    AR AP

    R M

    AY JU

    N JU

    L AU

    G SE

    P O

    C T

    N O

    V D

    EC '0

    0 JA

    N FE

    B M

    AR AP

    R M

    AY JU

    N JU

    L AU

    G SE

    P O