Vivek Issues n Options March - April 2014

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India After May 16, 2014

Why India Needs a DTC? Tracing Roots of Corruption

China's Emergence as IOR Power

and many more .Published By : Vivekananda International Foundation

3, San Martin Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi 110021, [email protected],www.vifindia.org
http://www.vifindia.org/http://www.vifindia.org/


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VIVEK : Issues and Options March - April 2014 Issue: III No: II 2

GOVERNANCE

Tracing the Roots of Corruption

- RNP SinghMEDIA

Multilateral Dialogues for Unity and

Plurality: Need of the Hour

- Prof. B. K. Kuthiala

BOOK REVIEWBeyond NJ9842: The Siachen Saga

EVENTS

Interaction with Dr. Hoang Anh Tuan

Vietnam

Interaction with EU Ambassador

to India

Talk by French Ambassador to India H

Francois Richier

Interaction with Egyptian Ambassado

India

Interaction with Swedish Delegation

Interaction with Dr. Klaus Lange,

Institute of Transnational

Studies, Germany

VIF MOU with Vietnam Think Tank

EDITORS NOTE

CENTRE STAGEIndia after 16th May 2014: Challenges Before

the New Government

- Dr M N BuchNATION

India Wants a Prime Minister Who is the Anti-

Thesis of Manmohan Singh

- Dr A.Surya PrakashDIPLOMACY

Enhancing Strategic Cooperation between

India, Vietnam and Japan in Larger National

Interests

- Maj Gen (Retired) P K ChakravortyAs USA Pivots, Saudi Arabia Rebalances in the

Middle East

- Monish GulatiNEIGHBOURHOOD

Chinas Emergence as Maritime Power in IOR

and its Implications

-Brig (Retd) Vinod Anand

Afghanistan: The Three Transitions and the

Question of Peace and Durability

- Kanwal SibalDEFENCE

Why India Needs a Defence Technology

Commission?

- Radhakrishna Rao

Contents

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Editors Note

Vox Populi, Vox Dei. In a democracy, the voice of the people is the voice of God. Come May

16, the verdict of the masses on the performance/non-performance of the different political

parties would come to the fore and a new Government would assume office soon thereafter.

While Government formation is important, its stability, the maturity, vision and

decisiveness of its leadership and the quality of governance that it would deliver are equally

critical. In recent times, the country has witnessed crises of confidence, of credibility and

one sincerely hopes that the new Government would be able to restore the faith of the

people in democracy, the rule of law and institutions, which has eroded over the years.

The 2014 Lok Sabha elections witnessed unprecedented mudslinging, personalized attacks

and attempts to divide the electorate on casteist, communal and linguistic lines, which is

most unfortunate even six decades after independence.

The low level of discourse engaged in by sections of the political class did not behove a

mature democracy at a time when all the eyes of the world are on India.

Instead of debating governance related issues, which are of core concern to the people of

India, particularly the youth, attempts were made by vested interests to focus only on the

clich subject of secularism, which has come to be identified with political hypocrisy.

One can only hope and pray that once the dust of the campaigning settles down, civility

would be restored back into our polity and the political class would set an example by

working together, particularly to resolve major challenges confronting the nation.

In this issue, our eminent authors such as M N Buch, Dr A Surya Prakash and Prof B K

Kuthiala have dealt with some of these critical issues.

We also have insightful articles on Defence, Diplomacy and Governance from our

distinguished scholars.

Please keep sending us your valuable feedback to enable us to serve you better in future.

K G Suresh

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India after 16th May 2014: Challenges

Before the New Government

- Dr. M.N. Buchhe political scenariounveiling before us for theperiod 16th May, 2014

onwards for the next five years isstill somewhat blurred, but certainalternative structures ofgovernment seem to be emerging.The first is an absolute majoritywhich, in the present context,probably centres around BJP. TheCongress more or less seems tohave come to terms with asituation in which it cannot aspirefor a majority. Realisticallyspeaking, an absolute majority forany single party does not seem tobe on the cards in 2014.

A second alternative would be forthe BJP to get somewhere around220 Lok Sabha seats, in whichcase it would find no shortage ofother political parties wanting tothrow in their lot with BJP. Whatwould emerge is a coalition but inwhich the largest single party has

enough representation inParliament to be able to have adominant voice. Such agovernment, whilst beingreasonably stable, would also be

reasonably firm and resolved inachieving its objective, though notall of them because somecompromise would have to bemade with the partners. The thirdalternative would be for thelargest single party, most probablythe BJP, to get about 180 seatsand lead a coalition. However,this would be a coalition ofcompromise and the governmentwould, therefore, be weak. Thiswould not be a happy situation.The fourth alternative, which istruly horrifying, is that the BJPdoes not get 150 seats, theCongress reaches a figure of about

120 seats, a melange of partiesthen forms a government and wewitness an era of having theweakest, most corrupt, mostindecisive government in ourhistory. Mulayam Singh Yadavand, perhaps, even Sonia Gandhiwould be quite happy with thisoption. This would be very

harmful for India, which certainlycannot afford yet another bout of anonfunctioning government. Bythe simple logic of reductio adabsurdum, love BJP or hate it, one

T

CENTRE

* Dr M N Buch, Dean, Centre for Governance and Political Studies, VIF


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is left hoping for either the first orthe second option to come true.One says this without any politicalbias, but rather because instead of

no government this country nowneeds firm government, which theCongress seems clearly unable toprovide.

Are there any indications aboutthe political composition of thenew government? In the case ofthe Congress the party went intothe elections in a clearly defeatist

mood, with its Prime Ministercontinuing with his stance of notcontesting a LokSabha election, itsvery powerfulFinance Ministerexcusing himselffrom the electionand its Spokesman

and Minister forInformation and Broadcastingfighting shy of contesting theelection. To the general public,this meant that powerfulministers themselves lost theirfaith in themselves and their ownparty to successfully contest theelection. One is surprised that the

party did not insist that theywould have to contest, regardlessof the results. Certainly this hashad a very demoralising effect onthe party. BJP, on the other hand,came out of its corner at the bell in

fighting trim and its entireattitude towards the election hasbeen extremely positive. Its PrimeMinisterial candidate, by the

energy shown by him, his bodylanguage, his careful choosing ofwords has shown himself to beclearly the front runner.Narendra Modi has become a veryreal factor in 2014 election.Perhaps that is the reason why anextremely hostile media has nowveered around to showing Modi

some respect and in factconservative, traditionally proCongress

newspapers suchas the Times ofIndia, TheEconomic Timesand the HindustanTimes have started

commentingeditorially on the challenges beforea Modi government. This iscoupled with the fact that everyattempt by the so-called secularparties to drum up massopposition to Modi by theminorities has not met with thehoped for success. Some Muslims

have voiced reservation aboutModi or even outright opposition,but there is no widespread antiModi hysteria amongst theminorities. This single factsuggests that if Modi does form agovernment and its performance is

One says this without anypolitical bias, but ratherbecause instead of nogovernment this country nowneeds firm government, whichthe Congress seems clearlyunable to provide.


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positive and addresses minorityinterests, then minority oppositionto BJP may also reduce over time.It would appear that the Muslims

may not vote in large numbers forBJP, but it also indicates thatthere is unlikely to be the level ofpolarisation of Muslim votes whichthe Congress hopes for.

Any new government, regardlessof which party heads it, will haveto squarely face the fact that thereis a perception, which started

about twenty years ago, thatIndia does not have a worthwhilegovernment and that it is a policyof drift which guides us.Therefore, a major challengebefore the new government wouldbe to establish its own credentialsas a government which can andwill govern, in the public interest,

but with great firmness ofpurpose. Towards this end, it willtake head on the law and ordersituation, especially in the LeftWing extremist affected districtsof Chhattisgarh, Odisha,Jharkhand and Bihar. TheNaxalites will be treated as whatthey are, that is, the enemies of

India and the State will use all itsresources to ensure that these lostareas are recovered, the Naxaliteseliminated and proper governmentrestored. Of course in doing so,great care will be taken to protect

the interests of the tribals and tocreate an environment in which astrong, highly welfare orienteddevelopment administration

begins to function. In other words,the State will not stint in applyingits resources to the development ofthese districts, but only after theNaxalites are liquidated.

There is a great deal ofdivisiveness in India in whichcaste, religion and region all seemto play a part. The new

government will have to ensurethat people of all religions feelsecure, all religions are honouredand any attempt at disturbingcommunal harmony very stronglydealt with. This means that aperson like Azam Khan is made tofeel the full weight of the majestyof the law, are successfully

prosecuted under section 153 AIPC and made to cool their heelsin prison for several years. Anyonepromoting communal riots, ashappened in Muzaffarnagar, willbe dealt with severely and thepolice will be suitably directed toensure that riots do not occur andif they do, are immediately put

down with a heavy hand. It is notenough for the future PrimeMinister to say that he looks uponall Indians as one. By his actions,he has to prove that not only areall Indians one but also that the


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State will ensure that its mightwill be deployed in ensuringcomplete protection for everysingle Indian. The Prime Minister

has to make India completely freeof communal violence and for thisthe country must cloak him withplenary powers. It is only thenthat India can become trulysecular. As an extension of thisdoctrine of harmony and amity,the new government also has tofind ways to free India from the

curse of caste, irrationalregionalism and linguisticchauvinism. Shiv Sena and MNSmay find this hardto swallow, casteistpoliticians of U.P.and Bihar may findthis a bitter pill,but such medicine

will have to be administered ifIndia is to unite and move forwardin harmony.

There can no good government ifthose in power are corrupt. Todaythere is political corruption for thepurchase of power, there isbureaucratic corruption whichoften results in a nexus between

civil servants and politicians andthere is social corruption in whichstandards and norms of moralityand social behaviour are bypassed.Political corruption arises out oftwo factors, one being the high

cost of elections and the secondbeing the temptation for makingmoney which comes the way ofpoliticians because we have moved

away from a systems and lawsbased polity and entered an era ofadhocism in decision makingwhich promotes favouritism andnepotism. One is not arguing herethat rules must be adhered to asrigidly as they would be in atotalitarian State. However, thereshould be no toleration of

deviation from rules whichpermits the granting of individualor collective favours. For example,

in the allocation ofnatural resourcesrules must beadhered to becausethere is a scarcityvalue attached to

such resource and, therefore, ifundue discretionary powers vestin any authority, then there can becompetitive bribe giving in orderto corner a particular resource.This example can be multipliedinto all fields, but it suffices toillustrate how the lack of rules,violation of rules, irrational

decision making all add up to anenvironment in which corruptionis bound to be endemic. If aposition of power is cloaked withina system in which ad hoc decisionmaking is prohibited, then thelikelihood of that power being used

However, there should be notoleration of deviation fromrules which permits thegranting of individual orcollective favours.


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for undue gain will besubstantially reduced, if noteliminated. For us to end politicalcorruption, therefore, the next

government must seriously mullover the question of State fundingof elections, coupled with electoralreforms which facilitate this,together with a greater emphasison rationality in decision making,virtual elimination ofdiscretionary powers except withinwell defined parameters and an

insistence on rules being adheredto. The elected representativeshave the power to change therules, provided the Legislatureaccepts this, but even in the newregime of rules, the changed ruleswill apply evenly across the boardand there will be no favouritism.

This theme needs to be carried

further. One major cause ofbureaucratic corruption is thatthere is excessive interactionbetween officials and citizensnecessitated by unnecessary rulesand regulations which force acitizen to approach the authoritieseven in petty matters. Ifcorruption is to be ended, there

has to be a systematic andcontinuous review of all rules, ofall orders, of all procedures inwhich a citizen is required tointeract with a governmentservant or seek permission to do

something. At every point ofcontact, the government servanthas an opportunity to delaymatters, which means that a

citizen who is seeking interventioneven in an absolutely routinemanner is forced to pay a bribe inorder to make his file move. If allsuch points of contact are eithereliminated, or made people-friendly, or have a built inschedule which ensures smoothmovement of papers, with every

deviation being easy to detect andalso being punished, then the needto pay a bribe to have oneslegitimate work done willsubstantially reduce. Also,because deviations from normswill be easy to detect governmentservants would be in some fearthat if papers do not move quickly

and citizens do not find legitimateredressal, then the official can bepunished and in fact will bepunished. One small example ofhow this works is from the DelhiDevelopment Authority whichdecided in early 1978 that in thematter of a completion certificateof a building, DDA would accept

the certificate of any registeredarchitect. There was a big uproarfrom the officials of DDA whosaw a source of lucrative illegalgain slipping out of their hands,but the then head of theorganisation insisted on pushing


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the reform through. Architectscharge a fee but certainly not anextortionist fee because had theydone so people would have gone to

other architects. So long as thesystem lasted, which wasapproximately two years, the levelof corruption on account ofcompletion certificates droppedvery sharply. There were almostno complaints in this behalf. Ofcourse, the reform did not surviveafter the departure of the then

head of DDA, but it was indicativeof what administrative measurescan achieve in thematter ofeliminatingcorruption. Thenew government,apart fromfollowing whatever

policy it wants to inthe matter of the Ombudsman (bywhatever name called),investigation and prosecution ofoffences and other penalmeasures, must systematically,vigorously and consistentlyconduct department bydepartment, office by office reform

of all administrative procedures,take all administrative measuresand put in place systems wherebythe contact between citizens andofficials is reduced to a minimum.One could commend here what theRajkot Municipal Corporation did

some years ago. It laid downnorms of building construction,put these on its website and thenencouraged people to seek building

permission by sending onlineapplications. These were scannedby the computers of thecorporation and those applicationswhich adhered to the prescribednorms were immediately clearedand permission granted online.Except for commercial buildingsand some very large structures,

almost the entire work of givingbuilding permission wascomputerised andthe citizens neitherhad to pay a bribenor face delay inthe clearance oftheir buildingapplications. What

is more, because aplan which did not adhere tonorms would be automaticallyrejected, attempts to obtainpermission for more than whatwas permissible becameunsuccessful. This example showsthat there is hardly anygovernment activity which cannot

be put into a system which itselfdiscourages corruption and,perhaps, it is this, more thananything else which will eliminatecorruption from this country.Kejriwals Jan Lokpal will thenbecome irrelevant.

Of course, the reform did notsurvive after the departure ofthe then head of DDA, but itwas indicative of whatadministrative measures canachieve in the matter ofeliminating corruption.


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No single essay can give acomplete blueprint of government,nor cover every challenge whichthe new government will face and,

therefore, this paper, too, willleave many areas untouched.Perhaps a follow up paper will beneeded, perhaps subject matterspecialists will come up with theirown ideas and write their ownpapers, which the new governmentwill at least read with care.However, one has to move beyond

just administration and corruptionand address economic issues also.In this regard, it might be worthstarting with agriculture. Thiscountry is fortunate enough tohave more than sixty percent of itsland area consisting of arable soil.In China, only ten percent of theland area is arable. Considering

its climate, water resources,relative environmental healthwith zones ranging from sub arcticto hot tropical, India should be themost important agriculturalcountry in the world. VergheseKurien proved that India canachieve great heights and hisdream, to which he gave

substance, has resulted in Indiabeing the biggest milk producer inthe world. Dr. Y.V. Parmar, thefirst Chief Minister of HimachalPradesh, building on thefoundations laid by the Stokesfamily in the Simla Hills and

Major Bannon in the Kullu Valley,made India one of the biggestproducers of apple in the world.We have led both the wheat and

rice revolution. Given visionaries,given universities of the status thePunjab Agriculture University,Ludhiana and the G.B. Pant

Agriculture University, PantNagar, with high priority beinggiven to cutting edge research anddevelopment in agriculturalsciences, given proper

management of water resources,given a marketing system andagro based industrial systemwhich adds value to product, Indiacan become the greatestagricultural country in the worldand agriculture can make ournation and our farmersprosperous. Almost eighty-five

crore people of India are farmersor are dependent on agriculture inone way or the other. Making afew crore city dwellers prosperouswill not cause India to grow anddevelop, especially because urbanbased economic activities tend tobe capital friendly and are notdesigned for equity. Making

eighty-five crore Indiansprosperous, with prosperity beingspread over small farms, wouldgive us enormous growth, but withequity and distributive justice. Ina paper of this type, one cannotgive all the measures which


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would bring about suchagricultural prosperity, butcertainly the new governmentmust give very high priority to

agricultural growth and for thispurpose to take a holistic view ofeverything which goes intoagriculture so that those policiescan be adopted which bring aboutacross the board agriculturaldevelopment in India anddistribute prosperity right down tothe last hamlet.

Closely linked with agriculture isthe question of nonagriculturalemployment andurban growth.India is fortunatelyplaced in that itstill has areasonableequilibrium in its

settlement pattern from thesmallest village right up to thelargest metropolitan city. Forexample, mega metropolitan Indiaaccounts for about six percent ofthe entire population of thecountry. There is, therefore, noprimate city such as Bangkok inThailand and Mexico City in

Mexico. In fact, the greatestpotential of growth lies in ourmiddle level towns and if we havean agricultural policy andprogramme which uses small townIndia as growth centres which

could promote agricultural growthand rural wealth generation, thenthe equilibrium in settlements canbe further strengthened. Now the

urban policy would come closer towhat has been recommended bythe National Commission onUrbanisation. Basically what theCommission has said was thatthere are approximately 439towns, mainly in the small andmedium towns category, whichhave the best potential for growth,

have a defined hinterland andwhose development would causesimultaneous growth of the whole

region. Urbanpolicy shouldencourage thegrowth of thesetowns. The newgovernment would

have to take a freshlook at our urbanisation policy.We need not follow the Chinesemodel of urbanisation at the costof rural development and in factour policy of growth in tandemcould well become the newparadigm of urban-rural growth inthe developing world.

Apart from agriculture, the otherprimary sector is the use ofnatural resources and theemployment it provides. India,this ancient Gondwanaland whichcontains the oldest hill ranges in

India is fortunately placed inthat it still has a reasonableequilibrium in its settlementpattern from the smallestvillage right up to the largestmetropolitan city.


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the world, the Satpuras, Aravallisand Vindhyas is very rich innatural resources, in particularminerals. The ore lies buried

beneath another great naturalresource, our forests. How doesone harvest the underlyingminerals without damaging theforests? This is the greatchallenge which technology has toface and master. Without coal wecannot generate power, withoutiron ore, bauxite or copper bearing

rocks we cannot manufacturesteel, aluminium and copper.Without power, without thesemetals, we cannot build a majorsecondary sector of manufacturingindustries and withoutmanufacture we cannot promoteaccelerated growth. Here thechallenge which the new

government will have to face ishow on the one hand to promotethe secondary sector and on theother to do so in a manner whichdoes not harm the environment ordisturb the planetary eco system.This is not impossible to achieve,but it has to be done with care,caution and forward planning.

India made the mistake offollowing the tertiary sector routeto fast economic growth. Goodwhile it lasted, but now with a bigquestion mark against it. Chinafollowed the secondary sector

route and built up a hugeindustrial infrastructure and as aresult thereof Chinese goods nowdominate the world market.

China also heavily encourages notonly Foreign Direct Investmentbut also foreign companies settingup their industries in China. Theyhad no inhibition about allowingmulti-national companies fromsetting up shop in China, whichaccounts for Chinas acceleratedgrowth. This has not been without

a price, including heavy industrialpollution, but there is no doubtthat the skill level of the Chinesepeople has increased because ofthe opportunities for industrialemployment, the economy hasgrown and China is now apowerhouse driving the worldeconomy. Without attempting to

suggest the correct industrialpolicy to be followed, it is still feltthat the new government will haveto very quickly decide on the pathof industrial growth that it willfollow so that the secondary sectorbecomes the engine of economicgrowth, quite apart from makingIndia a very strong country in the

matter of manufacture of goods ofevery description.

Closely linked with bothagricultural and industry is thequestion of fundamental research,applied research and development.


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As agriculture improves, asindustries grow, the need forresearch and development alsogrow, especially because in other

countries the research sector isvery powerful. The newgovernment will have to adopt aresearch and development policyin which our research institutionsmove away from beingorganisations which merelyvalidate imported technology andinstead themselves become the

centres of thinking, invention,innovation andthen appropriateapplication.Japans postSecond World Warincarnation wasbased on research,especially in the

field of electronics,communicationsand other forms of electronicapplications. From being a nationof copycats, Japan transformeditself into a nation of inventionand innovation. We have to movein the same direction, whichmeans that the new government

will have to create an environmentin which research anddevelopment are the prime moversof economic activity and growth.

All growth, all research, has to bebuilt on two premises. The first is

that India will be an educatednation and the second is that Indiawill be a healthy nation. Let usface facts our education system

is in shambles. The entire schoolsystem is rotten to the corebecause we have steadfastlyneglected all school education.There are a few good publicschools; there are some goodgovernment schools of the CentralSchool and Navodaya School genrebut the majority of our

government schools is ill housed,badly furnishedand equipped, withvery poor teachers,virtually no

worthwhilepedagogy or classroom teaching andstudents who may

become semiliterate but arecertainly not educated. On thisvery weak base, we have built aninfrastructure of worthlesscolleges and universities, in whichwe have recognised the castesystem by superimposing a fewgood central universities and some

institutes of national importancesuch as the IIsSC, IISERs, IIMs,IITs and IIITs. Even these,because of expansion, are nowwoefully short of faculty. Almostnone of our universities areengaged in any worthwhile

On this very weak base, wehave built an infrastructure ofworthless colleges anduniversities, in which we haverecognised the caste system bysuperimposing a few goodcentral universities and someinstitutes of nationalimportance such as the IIsSC,

IISERs, IIMs, IITs and IIITs.


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research and without academicresearch no country can prosper.

Americas great strength is theresearch and innovation which

flows out of the universities. Bycomparison, our universities are aquagmire of sloth. The newgovernment will have to give thehighest priority to education inwhich funds will have to be foundand measures taken to rebuild thesystem from school upwards.Education is not cheap but a

nation which neglects educationwill be cheap and worthlessbecause its manpower isuneducated. India cannot affordthis.

With education comes health. Oneremembers how before 1950,millions of workers, mainly inagriculture, lay sick with malaria

and there virtually was no one totill the fields or run the factories.It is during the Second World War,when much of the fighting tookplace in the jungles of South East

Asia, that the army realised thatmalaria is a more dangerousenemy than the Japanese and,therefore, very strict anti malaria

measures were adopted to protectthe health of the army. TheNational Malaria EradicationProgramme did help to bringmalaria under control and sincethen other communicable diseases

have also received due importance.The eradication of polio and smallpox are two success stories in thefield of health. However, we have

moved away from inexpensivehealth care in the public domainand are pushing more and morepeople into the hands of privatehealth care. Because the privatesector is expensive, the most needyare now virtually outside healthcoverage and, therefore, whereasour best hospitals are amongst the

best in the world, governmenthospitals are down in the dumps.The less said about rural healthcare, the better. China has donemuch better than India incommunity health care and thenew government will have to takea good hard look at our health caresystem with a view to universal

coverage by affordable medicalcare.

One does not envy the new PrimeMinister because he will carrywith him the baggage of pastmisgovernance, which has left ourinfrastructure in shambles.However, if India is to prosper, itsbasic infrastructure will have to be

vastly improved, especially in thematter of power, water supply andtransport and communications.These are extremely capitalincentive, but as our pastexperience has proved, these are


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all sectors in which a public-private participation model canwork. The new government willhave to see the extent to which

this model can be expanded andour infrastructure facilitiesimproved to the level where theybecome facilitators of economicgrowth.

There are two areas of concernwhich must be addressed by thenew government. The first isforeign policy, especially in the

context of our neighbours and thedevelopments in ourneighbourhood.The Americans areclearly moving outof Afghanistanbecause that war isnot sustainable.Will there be a

democratic government inAfghanistan or, as is more likely tohappen, will Pakistani backedextremist Islamic elements suchas the Taliban take over thecountry? In the worst casescenario, where does that leaveIndia? Will Pakistan encourageextremist elements in Afghanistan

to join hands with terroristorganisations in Pakistan to targetIndia? Is there anything that wecan do in the immediate futureand in the long run to protect ourinvestment, our interests and our

influence in Afghanistan? How dowe deal with cross borderterrorism? How do we countergrowing Chinese influence in our

neighbouring countries such asNepal and Sri Lanka? How can wehelp the Tibetans to regain theirautonomy and even sovereignty?How do we keep militarilyaggressive China at bay in Tibet,Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh?What should be our policy towardsthe changing scenario in Russia

and the former (now independent)republics of the Soviet Union?What should our policy be vis--

vis the UnitedStates of America,both in terms ofIndo-US relationsand in the largercontext of India,

Russia and China relationships?There are many foreign affairsexperts who would be only toohappy to advise the newgovernment. What the newgovernment will have to do is puttogether various inputs and thenarrive at the best policy whichsuits Indias interests. One has

not covered the entire field offoreign relation in the abovediscussions, but they do highlightthe areas of immediate concern tous. Let it be noted that Kashmiris not mentioned because it, like

Will Pakistan encourageextremist elements in

Afghanistan to join hands withterrorist organisations inPakistan to target India?


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Arunachal Pradesh, is non-negotiable.

One might end this paper with areference to our defence policy.Let the new government veryquickly decide what form ofcoordination machinery we shouldhave to ensure proper integrationof the armed forces in dealing withthe question of national security.This has to begin with astrengthening of the office of theNational Security Advisor and the

National Security Council. Let usat least ensure that there isfocused intelligence gathering,analysis and input into nationalpolicy both in terms of internalsecurity and security of the nationagainst external threats. Thengovernment must address thequestion of whether the present

arrangement of a Chiefs of StaffCommittee headed by the seniormost Service Chief shouldcontinue or should there be aChief of Defence Staff who hasoverriding powers over the threeServices and acts as PrincipalMilitary Advisor to Government.Then the government must

address the question of equipmentof the armed forces. It is wellknown that the Army is short ofguns and armour, even its infantryweapons are outdated, theweapons platforms of the Navy,

whether in the air or on thesurface or under water, are ageingand require very quickmodernisation and replacement.

The Air Force has been howlingfor combat aircraft, a demand notbeing fulfilled for years on endfor lack of acquisition. Can suchForces be depended upon toprotect India?

Let us completely overhaul thesystem of acquisition of weapons.Let it begin with each Service

Chief convincing government ofthe need to acquire a particularweapon system. The source ofacquisition should also be includedin the proposal. Once governmentaccepts the proposal, it mustprovide a budget and place it atthe disposal of the Service Chiefconcerned. The rules relating to

acquisition, the procedures to befollowed and precautions to betaken must be clearly definedand codified. Thereafter, theService Chief in question shouldset up an acquisition committee inwhich the Ministry of Defence andthe Ministry of Finance must berepresented. Let this committee

have the final powers ofacquisition and unless aconvincing case is made out ofirregularity or misdemeanor, letthe decision of the committee befinal. Every acquisition of


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weapons raises complaints aboutcorruption. We may investigatethese complaints but we must notstop acquisition of a system which

has been found to be best suited tothe Service concerned. If there iswrongdoing let it be punished, butex post facto. We cannot depriveour armed forces of necessaryweaponry any more. That is whythe new government will have tostreamline the process ofacquiring weapons, ensuring

honesty but eliminating delay.What good does it do for thecountry to claim honesty whilst itssubmarines are sinking under theweight of their own obsolescence?

In conclusion, let it be statedunequivocally that the mainchallenge before the newgovernment is to prove that it is in

fact a government and not a bunchof nincompoops who have neitherthe will to govern, nor theauthority, nor the energy.

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India Wants a Prime Minister Who is the

Anti-Thesis of Manmohan Singh

- Dr A Surya Prakashs the battle for the ballotenters the final phase andpolitical leaders slug it out

in the scorching heat of May, a fewobvious trends have come to thesurface across the country. Whileit is never easy to forecast thenumber of seats each party willbag in a country which has about50 national and regional partiesvying for seats in the lower Houseof Parliament, it is possible to pickup signals about which way thewind is blowing and also get thegeneral drift of the arguments foror against the incumbentgovernment or the main opposition

party.

Since voting trends depend upon ahost of variables in India includingregion, religion, caste, gender andclass, some experience inassessing electoral trends indifferent regions of the countrywould be essential to avoid the

minefields and get a sense ofpeoples inclinations. While thiswriter has done pre-electionsurveys for media organizationsfor over four decades, it must be

emphasized that even the mostseasoned election analyst can gowrong at times because of thepolitical plurality that oneencounters in every region andsub-region of India and thevarying concerns of electors in thedifferent states. Having put in thiscaveat, this writer will attempt tosum up the prevailing mood in thecountry following recent tours insome sample states in differentregions.

One trend that has been visiblesince the decline of one-party ruleand emergence of regional political

parties in different states and theformation of coalition governmentsat the federal level , is that thestate level electoral preferences ofvoters usually got reflected in aparliament election as well. Inother words, if the people ofOdisha voted the Biju Janata Dalto power in an election to the state

assembly, they would continue torepose faith in the same party ifan election to Parliament were tobe held soon after the stateassembly election. This could

NA

* Dr A Surya Prakash, Distinguished Fellow, VIF


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however change if the election tothe state assembly was held someyears ago and an anti-incumbencymood set in among the electorate

in that state. In such a situation,the voters would swing againstthat party and vote candidates putup by the principal oppositionparty in the state. In either case,the factor determining voterpreference would be local and notnational. While there have beensome exceptions to this rule, this

has been the general inclination ofvoters and the fact that it is anelection to Parliament has oftenbeen glossed over.

The 2014 election,however, may bedifferent becauseindications are thatthis time, voters

may buck this trend. Unlike in thepast, voters in many states in theNorthern, Central, Eastern,Western and Southern regions saythat state-level politics and theirelectoral preferences at the locallevel do not matter in this election.They say the question before themin this election is Who should

govern India and they propose toanswer that question through theballot. This means that after along time, electors in many statesin the country will rise aboveregional and caste considerations

which influence their votingpreferences locally and take a callon the kind of government theywant in New Delhi.

This is one distinct trend that isvisible in different regions of thecountry and this trend appears tohave crystallised over the pastyear or so and has much to do withthe omissions and commissions ofthe United Progressive Alliance(UPA) government in recent years.While committed supporters of the

Congress Party and its allies inthe UPA continue to back the

alliance, the UPAsdetractors are nowlegion and there is

muchdisappointment

about theperformance of the

Prime Minister, Mr.ManmohanSingh, his leadership (or morecorrectly, the absence of it), hisstony silence even in the face ofcalamities or even aggression fromacross the border and his failure toprevent blatant acts of corruptionby his ministers. The barbarictreatment of Indian soldiers by the

Pakistan Army and the reports ofregular Chinese intrusions intoIndian territory and thepusillanimous response of theUnion Government to theseincidents has left many voters sad

While there have been someexceptions to this rule, this hasbeen the general inclination ofvoters and the fact that it is anelection to Parliament has oftenbeen glossed over.


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and angry. Finally, the realclincher is the nation-wide feelingthat Mr Singh is not in control ofhis government and that he is

subject to remote control. This isthe general perception andassessment of the overall personaof Mr Singh among voters barringdiehard supporters of the UPAcoalition.

Voters in different parts of thecountry cite some or other of thesereasons as influencing their voting

decision in 2014 and say that theywant a Prime Minister who hasthe following qualifications: Hemust be decisive; he must speakup for India; he must rejuvenatethe economy; he must step updevelopment; he must be incontrol of the government; he mustprovide a corruption-free

government;

At first glance, this would seemlike a tall order. But then onemust note that the length of thepeoples wish list is directlyproportional to theirdisillusionment with theincumbent government. There can

be no doubt that there is a stronganti-incumbency wave in manyparts of the country and the votersare thirsting for a change.

Apart from all this, there isanother significant demand. The

voters seem to want the nextPrime Minister to head a majbootsarkar (a strong government),meaning thereby that they are no

longer comfortable with unstablecoalitions at the federal level.While the people blame Mr Singhfor what they see as a state ofparalysis in the UnionGovernment, they are notoblivious to the fact that he headsan unstable coalition kept afloatby greedy and unethical partners.

Prime Minister Singh describesthis constraint as coalitiondharma and says that he ishamstrung by it. But the publicperception is that this is actuallycoalition adharma, and that astrong-willed Prime Minister callalways call the bluff of his allies,discipline the fractious partners

and ensure that the PrimeMinisters Office (PMO) retainsitsauthority and control overgovernment.

In addition, the voters appear tobe deeply conscious of the fact thatmulti-party coalitions haveweakened the Union Governmentand virtually stripped the Prime

Minister of the powers vested inhim by the Constitution to choosea team of his choice and to appointand dismiss members of hiscabinet at will. This has enfeebledthe PMO and reduced it to a


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caricature of what it was even adecade ago. Voters responsesseem to indicate that this trendneeds to be reversed if one has to

have a majboot sarkar and adecisive PM. Thisunderstanding of the pitfalls ofelecting a coalition government atthe Centre gels with the desire ofvoters in many states and regionsto rise above caste, region andsuch other considerations whilevoting in this parliamentary

election, so that the primaryquestion beforethem, namely,Who shouldgovern India? isnot confused withother local issuesor considerations.

All this brings us to

the final question.What does this mean in terms ofthe final outcome in Lok SabhaElection 2014? Since the voters aredisillusioned with an unethicalcoalition at the Centre which isheaded by a man who is perceivedto be weak, they seem to want aPrime Minister who is the very

anti-thesis of Mr Singh. For avariety of reasons ranging frombitter political battles over modelsof governance, models ofleadership, models of developmentand models of inclusion to the

public assessment of the personaof leaders who are willing and ableto handle the top job, a substantialsection of the voters appear to

have zeroed in on Mr NarendraModi, the Chief Minister ofGujarat and the Bharatiya JanataPartys nominee for the office ofPrime Minister, as their choice forprime ministership. They also seehim as having all the qualitiesneeded for the top job.

While Mr Modi has contributed to

the creation of this image of beinga firm and decisiveleader focused ondevelopment andgovernance, somecredit must go tohis detractors aswell. By singlinghim out for attack

ever since the BJPanointed him as the primeministerial candidate onSeptember 13, 2013, they havewlly-nilly made this a Modi or No-Modi election and for the moment,it appears it is working to MrModis advantage. Some otherfactors have also been working for

him. For example, the fact that hewas a tea seller in a railwaystation during his formative yearshas struck a chord with the poorand dispossessed. They feel thathe is living the great Indian dream

By singling him out for attackever since the BJP anointedhim as the prime ministerialcandidate on September 13,2013, they have wlly-nilly madethis a Modi or No-Modi electionand for the moment, it appearsit is working to Mr Modis

advantage.


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which offers equal opportunity toone and all and enables even thepoorest of the poor to move up theladder provided one has the

discipline, positive energy and thegumption to overcome social andeconomic disabilities and dreambig. Initially some members of theCongress Party mocked at hishumble beginnings but clearlythat seems to have boomeranged.The second factor that appears tobe playing out in his favour is the

fact that he belongs to a caste thatis part of the Other BackwardClasses (OBCs). This fact hasspread silently by way of word ofmouth and has made it easier for alarge section of the voters withinthis segment to rise above theircaste considerations and relate tohim.

Finally, a word about the BJP..Although Mr Modi is the BJPsPrime Ministerial candidate, thevoters focus is not on the party.Most of those who hit the lotusbutton on their electronic votingmachines say that their vote is forModi and not the party. So muchso that in many constituencies

they say they neither know theBJP candidate nor do they care as

to who it is. All they know is thatthey are voting Modi. Mr Modihas sensed this and therefore histelevision appeal to voters says

hit the lotus button and beassured that that vote is comingdirectly to me.

There have been few occasions inthe past when such a strong andcharismatic personality hasdominated the discourse in aparliamentary election. The onlyexamples one can think of are the

Lok Sabha elections held in 1971and 1980. On both these occasions,it was Indira Gandhi, the leader ofher faction of the Congress versusthe rest and on both occasions shecame out triumphant. What doesElection 2014 hold for us? Wemust wait till May 16 to know theextent to which the electorate has

backed Mr Modi and whetherIndia will get a strong anddecisive government!

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Enhancing Strategic Cooperation between

India, Vietnam and Japan in Larger

National Interests- Maj Gen (Retired) P K Chakravorty

Introductionhe Asia Pacific region hasbecome strategicallyimportant due to disputes in

the South China Sea and the East

China Sea. Over the past decade,the region has witnessed theemergence of an assertive China.Currently China is the secondlargest economy in the world andis the country whose defencebudget is next only to the UnitedStates. The Peoples Republic ofChina was established in 1949 and

ever since China has beeninvolved in the following conflicts:-

Korean War which began in1950 and lasted up to 1953.

Sino Indian conflict of 1962. Ussuri River Conflict with

Russia in 1969. Securing of Paracel Islands

from Vietnam in 1974. Vietnam War in 1979.

Transformation of the ChineseArmed Forces began under thegreat visionary Deng Xiaoping and

this resulted in the PeoplesLiberation Army (PLA)undertaking a Revolution inMilitary Affairs (RMA) which hasresulted in a modernised forcecapable of undertaking military

operations in all the fivedimensions comprising Land, Sea,

Air, Outer Space and Cyberdomain. This capability hasresulted in a new assertivenessfrom China with regard to itsterritorial claims with respect toSenkaku Islands in the EastChina Sea, Spratly and Paracel

Islands in the South China Sea asalso Arunachal Pradesh (referredas Southern Tibet). China issmoothly posturing to get Taiwaninto its fold and thereby furtherenhance its Hard and Soft Power.China is also assisting two nuclearweapon states North Korea andPakistan as also providing

weapons and economic aid tonumerous Asian countries.

Chinas assertiveness needs to bestrategically balanced. This can bedone by pragmatic strategic

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* Maj Gen (Retd) P K Chakravorty, Indias former Defence Attache to Vietnam


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partnerships between countriesthat have disputes with China.The need at this current junctureis to enhance strategic partnership

between India, Japan andVietnam to strategically balanceChinese Hard Power.

Enhancing Strategic PartnershipsChinas rising assertiveness haswitnessed it declaring on 23November 2013 an Air DefenceIdentification Zone (ADIZ)

covering most of East China Sea.This has resulted in air trafficrestrictions over the disputedSenkaku islandsand was aunilateral step.Obviously all thesehave causedsecurity concerns

for all countries having territorialdisputes with China. There is aconcern that such zones may bedeclared in other areas leading tocreation of fear of Chinesedomination over international airspace.

While capabilities are easy togauge it is indeed difficult tovisualise intentions. Japan and

Vietnam have detailedcomprehension of Chinesethinking. Indias biggest export toChina has been Buddhism and haswitnessed a conflict in 1962. All

these countries are reading thesituation intimately leading tostrategic assessment of thecurrent situation vis a vis China.

Japan has moved on to a highpitch of nationalism leading to theelection of Shinzo Abe as thePrime Minister on 26 December2012. Abe has balanced theJapanese economy and enhancedJapans defence preparedness.Further, he has sought to broadenthe interpretation of Article 9 of

the Japanese Constitution in orderto permit Japan to maintain dejure military forces. He also

supports theJapanese alliancewith United States.In December 2013,he announced afive year plan of

military expansion. This was tocater for the Chinese build up andin consonance with the US pivotpolicy where a rebalancing wouldbe affected resulting in six CarrierBattle Groups being deployed in

Asia Pacific.

Prime Minister Abe has beenforthright in stating that relations

with China cannot be based onemotions. He has been interactingwith US and China on all issues toarrive at a realistic solution withregard to Asia Pacific. He hascomprehended the strategic

Obviously all these have causedsecurity concerns for allcountries having territorialdisputes with China.


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situation and accordingly made hisfirst overseas trip to Vietnam inJanuary 2013. Thereafter, therehas been frequent interaction

between the two countries leadingto the visit of the VietnamesePresident Truong Tan Sang toJapan from 16 to 19 March 2014.During the visit, both countriesdecided to have extensive strategicpartnership to strengthen defencecooperation between the twocountries.

Japan and India have similarviews on the current situationleading to cooperation in all fieldsbetween the two countries. Theintensity of the relationship wasdemonstrated by the six day visitof Emperor Akihito and EmpressMichiko to India which began on30 November 2013. Thereafter,

there was a series of exchangeswhich led to the visit of PrimeMinister Abe on 25 and 26January 2014. He was the ChiefGuest at the Republic Daycelebrations in 2014 and heldimportant discussions with Indianauthorities. There were threemajor areas which were agreed

and steps would be taken forfurther action. The first is thestrategic partnership which was tobe made more intense by havingan institutionalised mechanism ofregular consultations between the

National Security Advisor (NSA)of India and the Secretary Generalof National Security Secretariat ofJapan. The second aspect

pertained to the recent Chinesepolicy of declaring an ADIZ. BothGovernments underscored theimportance of freedom of overflight and civil aviation safety inaccordance with recognised policyof international law and therelevant standards ofInternational Civil Aviation

Organisation (ICAO). The thirdand most important aspectpertains to strengthen militaryexchanges and joint exercises asalso prepare a road map in thisconnection. A joint exercise will beheld between the two navies in thePacific Ocean. Apart from these,there were discussions on the civil

nuclear cooperation agreementand sale of US2 amphibianaircraft to India. This is the firsttime that Japan has agreed toundertake foreign sale of militaryequipment.

India and Vietnam have been onthe same page with regard tostrategic partnership. Defence has

been a top agenda between the twocountries ever since diplomaticrelations were established. Theprimary area of cooperation iscombat training which isbeneficial to both sides. Intensity


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of strategic cooperation betweenIndia-Vietnam and Japan is theneed of the moment so as toprovide strategic balance in the

region. This relationship couldfurther include the US as thefourth partner, Since December2011, India, Japan and the UShave been undertaking a trilateraldialogue which could be madequadrilateral by including

Vietnam. Reports indicate thatduring the Abe visit in January

2014, the proposal to havequadrilateral navalexercises betweenthese countries wasdiscussed. Thiswould lead togreater strategicsynergy byensuring inter

operability betweenthe Armed Forcesof the four countries.

The Way AheadChina has modernised its ArmedForces and has recently becomemore assertive regarding itsterritorial and maritime claims.

While all its White Papers professa pacifist approach, the same maynot occur when unresolveddisputes flare up. There is a need

for a quadrilateral partnershipbetween India-Vietnam-Japan andthe US to provide strategicbalance to the region. However, tostart with a trilateral India-

Vietnam-Japan trilateralframework for cooperation onstrategic issues could be formedand later it could be progressed to

a multi-lateral effort dependingupon the emergingstrategic

environment. Indiawould stand to gaincomprehensively byintensifying theexisting strategicpartnership with

these countrie.

Back to Contents

While all its White Papersprofess a pacifist approach, thesame may not occur whenunresolved disputes flare up.There is a need for aquadrilateral partnershipbetween India-Vietnam-Japanand the US to provide strategic

balance to the region.


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As USA Pivots, Saudi Arabia Rebalances

in the Middle East

- Monish Gulatiaudi Arabias increasinglytense relations with itsWestern allies, calls from

strategists for rethinking Saudi-Western relations and a growingdistance between Saudi and its

Arab Gulf neighbours within theGulf Cooperation Council (GCC)on the Syrian, Iranian andEgyptian issues has bredinsecurity in the region. The USPresident Barack Obama travelledto Saudi Arabia on 28 March forhis first visit to the country since2009 and met King Abdullah tolook him in the eyes and explainand reassure that US-Saudi

strategic interests remain verymuch aligned.1Saudi officials hadwarned of a "major shift" awayfrom Washington. This articlelooks at how at a time ofrealigning strategic priorities inthe Middle East, Saudi Arabia isattempting to secure its nationalinterests.

Obama VisitObama and King Abdullah met formore than two hours at the Kingsretreat in Riyadh where Obama

reassured King Abdullah that theUS remains committed tostrengthening the moderateopposition in the Syrian civil war.Washington and Riyadh havebitter disagreements about USresponse to the "Arab Spring"uprisings, and policy towards Iranand Syria. Saudis believe it is astrategic imperative to effect aregime change in Syria and avertwhat they see as a threat ofIranian domination of Arabcountries; a view not shared byWashington. The Kingdomsrelations with Egypt and to anextent Qatar are rocked by the

belief that the MuslimBrotherhood is the root cause ofthe politicization of Islam in Saudi

Arabia. Obama and the Saudimonarch discussed tacticaldifferences" in their approach tosome of these issues. The meetingwas keenly watched by both sidesfor indications that the Saudi-US

relations were at an even keel.

Oil has been one of the glue thathas been holding the US-Saudirelations together. However the

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* Monish Gulati is an independent analyst based in New Delhi


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US, by importing more crude fromsources such as Canada andMexico and exploiting its ownshale oil reserves, has reduced its

reliance on Saudi oil. Saudi Arabiaaccounted for 13 percent of totalimports in 2012.2 In 2020, the USwill have displaced Saudi Arabiaas the world's biggest oil producer.US dependency on petroleumimports from the Gulf has fallendramatically, close to 20 percent in2012. Also, increasing internal

demand means that Saudi Arabiathe worlds largest oil exporter hasless oil to sell abroad and to theWest. Saudis, nowsell more than two-thirds of their oil tomarkets in southand East Asia. Theexpected US

independence from imported oilhas made the Saudis uneasy andevery US strategic move in theMiddle East a suspect.

Iran was another key topic ofdiscussion between the Presidentand the King. Obama assured thatthe US would not accept a badnuclear deal with Iran. According

to Gregory Gause, Professor ofPolitical Science at the Universityof Vermont, during Obamas visit,US dispelled Saudi fears on someof the more wild interpretations of

American policy ... about the US

leaving the Middle East, throwingover the Saudis, and allying withIran, were just exaggerations.While there was some consensus

on how to move forward on Syria,on the issue of Iran, it appearsthat the Saudis have settled downto the idea that US is keen toproceed with the Iran nucleardeal and there's nothing they cando about it. Also whatever theyneed to do to address theirconcerns regarding Iran and the

Shia-Sunni dynamics, they wouldhave to do it on their own.

As a possibleoutcome ofObamas visit toRiyadh, twomoderate Syrianrebel militias, theFree Syrian Army

and the Syrian RevolutionaryFront, have been supplied with USweapons, including anti-tankBGM-71 TOW missiles (as IsraelsDebkafile website reported on 07

April). The Hazm movement, partof the opposition Free Syrian

Army, brings together mainly ex-army officers and soldiers who

defected from the military to jointhe revolt, has for the first timereceived more than 20 TOW anti-tank missiles which they haveused in flashpoint areas of Idlib,

Aleppo and Latakia provinces in

The expected USindependence from importedoil has made the Saudis uneasyand every US strategic move inthe Middle East a suspect.


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the north3 The Obamaadministration had also beenreportedly considering allowingshipments of shoulder-fired

antiaircraft missiles (MANPADS)to the Syrian rebels but concernson their misuse persist.4

Saudi InsecurityThe Saudis see an Iranian effort toshift the balance of forces in theregion in Tehran's favour, andtrying to encircle them with its

Quds Force active in Bahrain,Lebanon, through killing of SunniMuslims in Syria, supporting theShiite Muslim militias in Iraq,providing arms to the Houthirebels in Yemen and fomentingunrest among Saudi Shiites. Theyalso see the Egyptian militarybattling the Muslim Brotherhood

and jihadi terrorists in the Sinaias supporting Saudi Arabiascause and accordingly must beassisted. It was not surprisingthat the Saudis offered to pay forthe $2-billion to $3-billion armspackage Egypt is seeking from theRussians.5 Saudi Arabia has alsogiven the Lebanese army $3

billion in aid and some of themoney is likely to be spent onweapons from France. Saudi

Arabia is seeking to bolster theLebanese army to counter theHezbollah, which is funded byIran.

A diminishing US presence in theGulf is highlighting the lack ofoperational readiness in Saudi

Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation

Council (GCC). The Saudis havingrelied on the US as the kingdom'sultimate security guarantor andare now taking measures tocompensate for the flagging USwillingness and capability tointervene in Middle East. Asefforts to make the critical mass ofthe Saudi armed forces more

professional will take years, oneoption that Saudis are exercisingis to put in place a regionalcollective security arrangement.

GCC Military CommandA joint Gulf military commandwas approved by the GCC leadersat their summit in Kuwait in

December 2013.6 A communiquissued at the end of the summitsaid that the Supreme Council hadagreed to establish the jointmilitary command and assignedthe Joint Defence Council to takenecessary measures to put thisagreement into effect. The GCCleaders also approved a proposal

for setting up the Gulf Academyfor Strategic and Security Studiesand welcomed the UAE proposalto host it. The GCC DefenceMinisters laid the foundationstone of the coordination centre formaritime security in Bahrain


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while the central headquarters ofthe GCC Joint Military Commandwill be in Riyadh.7

The Gulf command, according toSaudi Minister of the NationalGuard Prince Miteb Bin Abdullah,will be built into a 100,000standing military force with theSaudis contributing anywherebetween 50,000 to 75,000 troops.8The Saudi Arabian NationalGuard (SANG) trained by USadvisers since 1975 appears to be

the core of the envisioned GCCmilitary command.9 Saudi Arabiais alsocontemplatingbringing in 25,000-50,000 foreignfighters fortraining to thekingdom to deter

Iran and fight in Syria.

Saudi Pak RelationsThe Saudis have a closerelationship with Pakistan PrimeMinister Nawaz Sharif, who livedin exile in the kingdom during theMusharraf dictatorship. Militaryand intelligence linkages betweenthe two are also strong. Saudi

Arabia has managed to elicitsupport from Pakistan on theSyrian crisis. Following talks withNawaz Sharif, during the recentvisit of the Saudi Crown Prince,

Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud toIslamabad, the two countriesdemanded the formation of atransitional governing body with

full executive powers to replacethe Bashar al Assad regime andtake charge of the affairs inSyria.10Saudi Arabia has providedmore assistance to Pakistan overthe last three decades than to anyother country. The PakistanDevelopment Fund received a giftof about $1.5 billion Saudi aid. The

first tranche of 750 million dollarswas received on 19 February andthe second on 07March.11

Media reports haveemerged that Saudi

Arabia has askedfor Pakistanimilitary weaponry

such as Chinese-built JF-17Thunder fighter planes and tanksfor use in Syria. Sartaj Aziz, thePakistani Prime Ministers advisoron foreign affairs and nationalsecurity though confirmed earlierreports that Pakistan is "makingefforts" to sell small arms andfighter jets to Saudi Arabia but

attempted to pass them off as aroutine arms sales by a countrywith "a flourishing arms industry."He denied any link of the armssales to Syria saying that therewas no Syria-specific agreement at

The Pakistan DevelopmentFund received a gift of about$1.5 billion Saudi aid. The firsttranche of 750 million dollarswas received on 19 Februaryand the second on 07 March.11


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this time and reiterated Pakistan'sneutral stance on the four-yearcivil war. That arms are expectedto include the Anza, a heat-

seeking, shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile designed withChina and manufactured locally.Its the equivalent of the AmericanStinger missile.12

According to some reports, Riyadhhas also asked for two divisions ofPakistan troops to be sent to Saudi

Arabia to train Saudi troops.

However, Pakistani InformationMinister Pervez Rasheed has saidthat Pakistan is not sending itsarmy to any other country.Pakistan has earlier reportedlyhelped Bahrain set up its navalforces and Pakistani personnelcomprise 18 per cent of theBahraini air force. During the

Arab Spring, Bahrain is believedto have hired the services ofretired Pakistani military andpolice officials to quell the revolt.

AssessmentThe diverging nature of US-Saudiinterests and the apprehensionthat their future foreign policytrajectories might take themfurther away has created thispalpable air of uncertainty in theregion. These developments haveleft Saudi Arabia with very fewregional allies and increasingly

fewer policy options to shape itsdesired geopolitical outcomes.Saudi Arabia has threatened thatit "will go it alone" in their policies

towards Iran and Syria and in thisregard is increasing looking atSouth Asia, in particularPakistan.13 Geopolitically theythemselves seem to be seeking toencircle Iran by drumming upsupport in Afghanistan andPakistan.

There are also reports that Saudi

Arabia is attempting to cobble togather a new military alliancewhich will eventually include the 6countries of the GCC, as well asMorocco, Jordan and Egypt. TheGCC (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, theUnited Arab Emirates, Kuwait,Bahrain and Oman), has alreadysent a formal request to the three

countries to join the proposedmilitary alliance. The motivationfor the GCC proposal is thestrengthening of the regionalgrouping, which seeks to securethe assistance of a total of 300,000troops from Morocco, Egypt andJordan, in exchange of financialaid.14

Indias concern on Saudi-Pakistancooperation would be on severalcounts. Firstly, the most publiclydiscussed security strategy for theSaudis involves acquiring nuclearweapons from Pakistan, either


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purchased or under somearrangement of joint control withPakistani forces. The nuclearwarheads transferred by Pakistan

could arm Saudi missiles capableof hitting Iranian targets. Secondis the use of Pakistani jihadistsand ex-servicemen (given thepublic outcry, it is unlikely thatactive duty servicemen will be sentto the Gulf) to bolster the Syrianopposition. Third is theproliferation of high calibre

weapons and Manpads to theMiddle East and their movementlater back to Pakistan. Lastly andthe most worrisome would be anySaudi-sponsored action to engageIran on its eastern borders. With alarge population of Shias, India isextremely wary of any internal orexternal move to create and

exploit this faultline. The messagefrom the ongoing general electionsis clear- inclusive and sustainabledevelopment is the countrysagenda and the country wouldeschew any distraction from thisgoal.

Conflicting interests and viewsconcerning Egypt, Syria, Iran and

Palestine have created big rifts inthe US-Saudi relationship. Thereis already a view that Saudi

Arabia is not a natural ally of theUS and the relationship withSaudi Arabia is overdue for a

recalibration.15 India for its owninterests would like Saudiinsecurities addressed and theSaudi-Iranian tussle played out

west of the Arabian Sea.Endnotes1. Why Obama Wont Give (or Get) Much in

Saudi Arabia, Aaron David Miller. TheAmerican Interest, March 25, 2014http://www.the-american-interest.com/articles/2014/03/25/why-obama-wont-give-or-get-much-in-saudi-arabia/

2. Joergen Oerstroem Moeller. Shale GasHelps Fracture U.S.-Saudi Ties, RealClear World, April 2, 2014.http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2014/04/02/shale_gas_helps_fracture_us-saudi_ties_110406.html

3. 'Syria rebels get US-made missiles',AFP, 16 April 2014.http://news.yahoo.com/syria-rebels-us-made-missiles-170846577.html

4. Julie Pace. Obama may allow air defensehelp for Syria rebels, Yahoo news ,March28, 2014http://news.yahoo.com/obama-may-allow-air-defense-help-syria-rebels-154054217--politics.html

5. Dennis Ross. Next Test for Obama:Soothing The Saudis, Los Angeles Times,March 24, 2014.http://www.latimes.com/opinion/commentary/la-oe-ross-saudi-arabia-obama-20140325,0,4405842.story

6. GCC military command to have 100,000-strong force, Saudi Gazette December22, 2013.http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentid=20131222190259

7. GCC military command to have 100,000-strong force, Saudi Gazette December22, 2013.
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8. Nawaf Obaid.The Saudi challenge to USSyria policy, Al monitor, November 28,

2013

9. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/12/saudi-arabia-gcc-unity-oman-opposition-king-abdullah.html

10. Kamran Yousaf. Ouster of Assadregime: Riyadh wins Islamabadssupport on Syria , February 18, 2014.http://tribune.com.pk/story/673146/ouster-of-assad-regime-riyadh-wins-islamabads-support-on-syria/

11. Tanveer Ahmed, Dar asks opposition tostop moaning about Saudi grant, dailytimes, March 27http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/national/27-Mar-2014/dar-asks-opposition-to-stop-moaning-about-saudi-grant

12. Umar Farooq. Pakistan and the SunniGulf, The Diplomat, April 17,2014.http://thediplomat.com/2014/04/pakistan-and-the-sunni-gulf/

13.Samer N Abboud. Saudi isolation couldbe a threat to the region, Al jazeera,January 05, 2014.http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/12/saudi-isolation-could-be-

threat-region-2013122465742778724.html

14.Larbi Arbaoui. Gulf Countries to Form aMilitary Alliance with Morocco, Egypt,Jordan, Moroccoworldnews, April 10,2014.http://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2014/04/128049/gulf-countries-to-form-a-military-alliance-with-morocco-egypt-jordan/

15.Saudi Arabia Isn't America's Friend,Bloomberg View, March 26, 2014.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-26/saudi-arabia-isn-t-america-s-friend?

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ttp://www.dailytimes.com.pk/national/27-Mar-2014/dar-asks-opposition-to-stop-moaning-about-saudi-granthttp://www.dailytimes.com.pk/national/27-Mar-2014/dar-asks-opposition-to-stop-moaning-about-saudi-granthttp://www.dailytimes.com.pk/national/27-Mar-2014/dar-asks-opposition-to-stop-moaning-about-saudi-granthttp://tribune.com.pk/story/673146/ouster-of-assad-regime-riyadh-wins-islamabads-support-on-syria/http://tribune.com.pk/story/673146/ouster-of-assad-regime-riyadh-wins-islamabads-support-on-syria/http://tribune.com.pk/story/673146/ouster-of-assad-regime-riyadh-wins-islamabads-support-on-syria/http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/12/saudi-arabia-gcc-unity-oman-opposition-king-abdullah.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/12/saudi-arabia-gcc-unity-oman-opposition-king-abdullah.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/12/saudi-arabia-gcc-unity-oman-opposition-king-abdullah.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/12/saudi-arabia-gcc-unity-oman-opposition-king-abdullah.htmlhttp://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentid=20131222190259http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentid=20131222190259http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentid=20131222190259


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Chinas Emergence as Maritime Power in

IOR and its Implications

- Brig (Retd) Vinod Anandhina as part of itsrevolution in militaryaffairs has been paying

attention to developing its powerprojection capabilities in the shapeof modernizing its armed forces,particularly its naval and air

forces besides adding to its spacebased assets and nuclear forces.PLA has seen double digit ingrowth of its budget for over adecade that has added to itsdefensive and offensivecapabilities. PLA Navys foraysinto Indian Ocean Region (IOR)commenced with alacrity in 2006

when its ships were sent to Gulf ofAden on anti-piracy mission aspart of international endeavoursto secure Sea Lines ofCommunications (SLOCs). Theobjective was to secure the oilsupply routes to bolster the energysecurity that is considerednecessary for the economic growth.

Though there could be economiclogic and rationale to such amission, the strategic connotationsof this mission also need to be seenin their correct perspective. This

could be said to be the first timewhen the Chinese Navy carriedout operations in the far seasthus giving it experience inprogressing towards a blue waternavy.

PLAs ambitions in Indian Oceancan be gauged from the fact thatsome of the Chinese think tanksand analysts have suggested theneed for PLA Navy to acquirebases. Huanqiu Shibao writing inGlobal Times on May 25, 2011observed that if the world reallywants China to take more

responsibilities in Asia-Pacificregion and around the world, itshould allow China to participatein international military co-operations and understand theneed of China to set up overseasmilitary bases Such kind ofarticulations gives rise toapprehensions among Chinas

neighbours as to whether China isfollowing its oft-stated policy ofpeaceful rise / peacefuldevelopment.

C

NEIGHBOU

* Brig (Retd) Vinod Anand, Senior Fellow, VIF


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A report submitted by the HQ IDSlast year said that submarines ofPLA Navy have becomeincreasingly active in the IOR

which could pose grave threat toIndian interests. Hitherto only theUS and Indian navies had beenoperating in the region. Theimplicit focus of the Chinese navyappears to be undermining theIndian Navys edge to controlhighly-sensitive sea lines ofcommunication. It also talks

about Chinas so called String ofPearls Strategy i.e. Chinasdevelopment ofports in IORlittoral especiallylike Gwadar,Hambantota, andSittwe (this hasexpanded to

includedevelopment of big ports alongeastern coast of Africa e.g.Bgamoyo in Tanzania, Lamu inKenya) that is seen as strategicattempts to surround India withfacilities that can be upgraded tonaval bases. The Chinese navy isalso building up expeditionary

maritime capabilities in the formof nuclear-powered submarinesand area denial weapons (anti-ship ballistic missiles) withdeployment focus in the IOR.Marked increase of PLAN activityin IOR has created apprehensions

about its negative impact onIndias naval/maritime interests.

The above report comes in the

background of PLA Navydeploying its state-of-the-artnuclear submarines Type 094

Yulin Naval Base in Sanya,Hainan in the South China Sea.From that location it would beeasy to get deployed in the IO asand when required. The SSBNwill eventually be outfitted with

the JL-2 Sea Launched BallisticMissiles (SLBMs).

In May 2013, aChinese think tankcame out with aBlue Book onIndia- a semi-official document-which underlines

the need for securing SLOCspassing from the western part ofIO and then on to eastern partand Malacca Straits. It also warnsthat India is preparing for two-front war with China andPakistan and also notes thedeveloping strength of IndianNavy. The report talks about

India's maritime deployment inrecent years, the prime cause ofChina's worry as it regards India'sfast expanding blue water navy asa major threat. The report alsoopines that unstable democracy/

The above report comes in thebackground of PLA Navydeploying its state-of-the-artnuclear submarines Type 094

Yulin Naval Base in Sanya,Hainan in the South China Sea.


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political situation in India couldlead to further tensions. The bookemphasizes on the need for Chinabeing pro-active in the IOR and

forging strategic partnerships withIOR littoral states for it notes If[China] cannot have a positiveimpact on these regional powersand the Indian Ocean littoralstates, the future situation will beeven more severe, and will affectChinas development and peace

negatively.

A second edition of the Blue Bookhas been released in March thisyear that expands on the earlierthemes and pays particularattention to Myanmar and India.It calls for a new kind of powerrelationship between China andIndia. Many of the remarks andobserva

Vivek Issues n Options March - April 2014

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