Vision session deck v3 [Read-Only] - IEEE · 2014-03-24 · – 2004 Technology Roadmap – 2006...
Transcript of Vision session deck v3 [Read-Only] - IEEE · 2014-03-24 · – 2004 Technology Roadmap – 2006...
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Agenda• Welcome & Introductions – 30 minutes• Seed Information – 2 hours
– Why are we doing this – what is different from P2030– Who else is doing it (e.g. Comm, Computer)– What are the goals and objectives– What is our proposed timeline– What do we need from the PES community– What will we do with the output– Who will see the outputs– What is the proposed scope of the project– What assumptions are we making– What are the needs in different parts of the world– Possible ways to organize the work and the paper– What has been done elsewhere– An example vision
• Break outs – Outline (table by section? Table by HQ driver?)
• Agree to an outline as a group• Breakouts
– Key people (table by section of new outline)– Key documents to review
• Take Assignments (volunteers)• Next Steps
– Updates on assignments in the IGCC meeting on Wednesday Afternoon (2PM to 6PM Michelangelo room)
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Current timeline
• Chapter outline is due on 15 November 2011• Rough “setting the stage” due 15 November 2011
• Author assignments (team members) due 18 November
• Author pieces due to chapter leads on 20 Dec• Chapters due to Georges on 31 Dec 2011
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IEEE PES Vision Working Session
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Objectives
• Chapter Outline (topics)– General Outline
• Chapter Leads• Level Setting – Vision
– Presenting on vision – chapters
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Meeting Agenda
• Welcome & Introductions – 30 minutes• Seed Information – 2 hours • Outline Development Break outs • Outline agreement Plenary• Assignment Breakouts• Author/Editor Assignments• Next Steps
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Welcome & Introductions6
• Welcome to Detroit• Introduction
– Name– Location/Company– Interests and Background (e.g. Transmission SCADA, Material Science)
– Why you joined us today
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Meeting Agenda
• Welcome & Introductions – 30 minutes• Seed Information – 2 hours • Outline Development Break outs • Outline agreement Plenary• Assignment Breakouts• Author/Editor Assignments• Next Steps
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Why Are We Doing This?8
• Why is PES doing a vision– We have the Emerging Technologies White paper and working group
– We have P2030– We have the TC’s vision documents– We have….
– So why are we here? What is different?
Who Else in IEEE is Involved
• Communication Society – communication technology
• Computer Society – IT technology• Control System Society – control system technology
• Intelligent Transportation Systems Society –vehicular technology
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Goals and Objectives10
• Develop a long term vision of what the smart grid for power technologies will look like 20 to 30 years out.
• SG Vision Project is chartered to create of a rich set of forward looking use cases, applications scenarios for SG, and corresponding enabling technologies for SG of the future snap shots of years 2015, 2020, 2030, and beyond that will characterize the SG paradigm
• The world's beacon for SG paradigm and relevant to it technologies. • It is targeted to produce publishable products (long term vision, reference
architecture model(s), and a technology roadmap) • The SG vision should be a pie in the sky globally optimal scenario for the
SG with minimal to no boundary conditions. In other words the vision should not be bounded by existing technological, regulatory, business paradigms, standards projects, or product plans.
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Vision documentEditorial team
Chapter 1Editor 1
Chapter 2Editor 2
Chapter NEditor N
Experts(As many as needed)
Experts(As many as needed)
Experts(As many as needed)
Goals and Objectives
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Proposed Timeline12
• Key milestones– Today's workshop (define chapters and editors)– Initial draft in September– Final version (beginning of 2012)
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PES Community Involvement13
• Chapters' Editors can recruit experts to help build the chapter content
• We will brief the TC on today’s activities on Wednesday
• We will continue the discussions from today at the IGCC meeting on Wednesday afternoon
• We will include information from today in the next smart grid e‐newsletter
• What we did today will get a mention in the Smart grid super session
Output Uses14
• Beneficiaries for this vision are industrial and academic organizations engaged in long‐term research and relevant funding entities.
• The value to Industry• Exposure to early research activities • Access to academic research talent and intellectual property• Increase strength of intellectual property due to early patenting activities • Increase in relevancy of patents due to targeted, standards‐minded research • Standards development can start earlier and is expected to be accelerated by– pre‐standardization discussions, thus reducing time‐to‐market for products
and services• Value to Academia
• Possibility to partner with industry • Possibility to engage in relevant to industry research• Significantly higher possibility for impact of research• Potential for highly cited publications ‐ Vision Projects are meant to result in – peer‐reviewed publications available on IEEE Xplore
Who Will Receive This?15
• All• This will be posted on Xplore® and be peer reviewed• Generally available to the membership on Xplore• Will be used in some form with lots of groups• Additional output of the project is recommendation
for creation of research and/or Study Groups leading towards standardization projects
• New conference topics and incubation of technology
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What is the Scope?
• Reminder : Scope of IEEE PES T&D committee
– Treatment of all matters related to the design, theoretical and experimental performance,installation, and service operation of parts of electric power systems which serve to transmit electric energy between the generating sources and substations or customer points of common coupling through AC or DC lines.
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Geographic Scope17
• Global– Developed world– Developing world with existing infrastructure– Developing world without existing infrastructure
• Ideally any one in the world will be able to benefit from what is developed here
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Assumptions• People will still use energy• “Mr Fusion” will not be invented• Price trends will generally continue
– Commodities– Fuel– Electricity– Batteries– Capital Costs– Etc.
• Customers will be as demanding or more demanding• Regulation of the monopoly portions of the grid will continue• No radical restructuring of the industry will happen• Regulations will not radically change with regard to:
– Mergers and acquisitions– Ownership– Customer classes– Cross subsidization
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Assumptions19
• The goal is a vision one asset cycle in the future (e.g. 2050)
• The vision should NOT be tied to a specific market design, technology choice or vendor
• It will evolve as new technology comes available
Barriers to avoid• Basing on a market design• Basing it on a grid topology• Basing it on a specific communications design• Basing it on specific grid technology• Limiting it to known technologies
– Distributed Generation– Material science– Transportation
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Things to think about• By 2050
– Almost every asset in the grid will turn over• Coal plants and Nuclear power plants will reach the end of their licensing• Transformers will be fully depreciated• Poles will have rotted away• Even windmills will have reached the end of their design life.
– Transportation could be powered by anything– There will be 9 billion humans on the planet– Food and Water will be an even bigger issue than today– Most of the newly discovered “Tight” gas will have been harvested
– Most countries will have had at least 10 elections for political leadership
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More to think about…• The EU cancelled 20/20/20 and retained only the technical
components (e.g. smart metering)• Australia’s government may fall over carbon taxes• China has the fastest growing renewable program in the world
– Coal emissions are also growing faster than the rest of the world combined
• There should be 2 more full economic cycles during this period
• Given the speed of communication changes we will be using G7, and transitioning to G8
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What Has Been Done Elsewhere?• CEATI
– 2004 Technology Roadmap – 2006 Technology Roadmap Phase 2 (3 reports)
• Planning from now to 2010, Case for Change and Communication Infrastructure
• Canadian Electrical Association – The Smart Grid – A Pragmatic Approachhttp://www.electricity.ca/media/SmartGrid/SmartGridpaperEN.pdf
• e8 Smart Grid Technology Innovation Group Report http://www.globalelectricity.org/upload/File/0_4_2_2_att_‐
_smart_grid_group_outcomes_final_report_for_public_use.pdf
– e8 is also known as the Global Sustainable Electricity Partnership and its origin is tied to the G8
• EPRI– 2004 Advanced Distribution Automation report with 2006 and 2007 update– Smart Grid Roadmap Interest Group (ongoing)
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What Has Been Done Elsewhere?• EEI
– Future Grid Scenarios– Cost of smart grid study
• PES Emerging Technology Committee– Emerging Technology white paper
• IEC– SG3 Standard’s roadmap
• NIST/SGIP– Smart Grid Framework– Smart Grid Roadmap v1 and v2– Smart Grid Conceptual Architecture
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What has been done elsewhere
• China Smart Grid Roadmap• Japan’s smart grid roadmap• Germany’s smart grid pilot program portfolio• Etc.
• Please give us more references…!
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Hydro Quebec 2010 BC Hydro 2009Update of 2008 roadmap
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Example Vision
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Scenario Variables
Hard‐Technical Soft‐Market
Reduced ‐ Efficiency Growing
Into Cities Into Suburbs
Electricity
Off shore On Shore
Other
Growing Retiring
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Meeting Agenda
• Welcome & Introductions – 30 minutes• Seed Information – 2 hours • Outline Development Break outs • Outline agreement Plenary• Assignment Breakouts• Author/Editor Assignments• Next Steps
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How Will the Document Be Organized?
• Not decided yet• Several options:
– Technology Focused?– Utility Business drivers Focused?– PES Organization Focused?– Industry Value Chain Focused?– NIST Domain Focused?
• Your Call! Forward your input to the moderator • Afterwards the information will be reformatted
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Break out • For each topic, each table should consider
– What are the major influences / drivers for the time period ?• Possible scenarios for different contexts
– What would be the situation in 5, 10, 20 30 years?– Do we need new indices to better Smart grid impact on Power
System? If so will we need new sensors / tools ?– Do we need tools to support the SG deployment of this topic ?– What will be the SG standards needed to support the evolution of this
topic ?– Does it impact Generation, Transmission, Distribution or Customers?– Do we forget anything ?
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Break out tables • 2 proposed options
– Option 1 – Technology based– Option 2 – Utility Business Drivers based
• Vote on the options
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Break out (Option 1)• Introduction• Section – Setting the Stage
– Future Scenarios– Urban drivers and requirements– Rural drivers and requirements– The demands of water– Future Demand Curve– Commonalities of the future scenarios (no regrets)
• Section – Distributed Resources– Wind– Solar– CHP– Storage– Micro Hydro
• Section ‐ Grid Design– Resiliency– Distribution automation– Sensors– Substations– Transmission and sub‐transmission– Power Quality
• Section ‐ Fundamental Changes– Materials– Power Electronics– DC in the grid
• Section ‐ Security– Terrorism– Hacking– Security of supply– Disaster recovery– Electro‐Magnetic Events– Cyber‐Security– Privacy– Cyber‐Physical Security
• Section ‐ Transportation– Electric mass transit– Electric vehicles
• Section ‐ Customer Facing– DSM– Industrial and commercial building control systems– Home area networks– Smart appliances
• Section ‐ Communications and ICT– Communication demands– ITC impacts– Semantics and interoperability
• Section ‐ Operations and Maintenance– Staffing– Training– Operations
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Break out (Option 2)• Section – Setting the Stage
– General influences, Drivers, Impacts• Section – Power & Energy Availability
– DG and DER technologies on Power System• Wind, Solar, CHP, Storage, Micro Hydro…
– Balancing loads and generation• Storage• DSM• Micro‐Grids
• Section ‐ Power & Energy System Reliability– Indices for present and future customer expectations– Grid Design
• Resiliency, Network structure for Dense Urban, Urban Suburban and Rural, Substations
– Smart Distribution technology (Automatic restoration, Advanced Protection, Precise fault location…)
• Section ‐ Power & Energy System Quality– Indices for present and future customer expectations– Power Quality –sensors
• Section ‐ Power & Energy System Efficiency– CVR and VVO– Losses reduction
• Section Power and Energy System ‐ Security– Hacking, Security of supply, Disaster recovery, Electro‐
Magnetic Events, Cyber‐Security, Privacy, Cyber‐Physical Security
• Section – Power and Energy System ‐Operations and Maintenance
– Staffing– Training– Operations
• Section – Customer Empowerment ‐ Generation– DG and DER technologies on Customer side
• Wind, Solar, CHP, Storage, Micro Hydro…• Section – Customer Empowerment – New Loads
– New Loads• EVs and PHEVs• Electric Mass Transit• Smart Appliances• Zero energy houses• Industrial and commercial building control systems
• Section ‐ Communications and ICT– Communication demands– ITC impacts– Semantics and interoperability– Home area networks
• Section ‐ Fundamental Changes– Materials– Power Electronics– DC in the grid– Supraconductivity– …
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Break Out Rules and Assumptions
• Typical Expected Content for each Section– Influences
• Environment, political…
– What is expected for 2015, 2020, 2030 ?• Technological development expected with scenarios based on influences
– Main challenges– Expected impacts on Power system
• Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Customers
– Expected Technical and Standards Development• Liaison with other sections/societies
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Doug makes assignments and gets people to tablesBill and Georges provide the ground rules
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Report Outs• Each Group will have 5 minutes• There will be Q&A AFTER The report out• We will attempt to document the outline on the screen as we go
• We will review the WHOLE outline after ALLthe report outs– Holes?– Duplication?
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Georges leads/Doug or Erich Types
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Meeting Agenda
• Welcome & Introductions – 30 minutes• Seed Information – 2 hours • Outline Development Break outs • Outline agreement Plenary• Assignment Breakouts• Author/Editor Assignments• Next Steps
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Outline37
Section Editor Agreed? Back up Team
1. Setting the stage Doug x Erich
2. Make Geza Joos x Dave Nichols, NREL?,
3. Move Roy Alexander x EPRI (TBD), Cheri Warren (?)
4. Use Chad Abbey x Eric Simmon (NIST), PNNL?,
5. Control and Operations Mohammad x Jianhui Wang Karen Miu [email protected]; Jonathan Ziegler <[email protected]>
6. ICT Doug Fitchett(AEP)
Chris Knutsen(PGE)
Karen Tunney (DTE)
7. Security Sandy Basik x Bobbi Brown
8. Conclusions and Recommendations
Georges Simard x Wanda Reder
Use Team and expertise
• Proposed team members– Eric Simon – NIST– Robert Pratt, Kevin Schneider ‐ PNNL– Alain Moreau – Hydro‐Québec‐LTE– ADDRESS project (EU project) members– CIGRE C6.22 Microgrids roadmap (C. Marnay et al.)
• What areas to you feel less comfortable with– Pricing models, what the future consumer will look like– Futuristic transportation scenarios and their possible implications on the grid – liason with Transportations group
Setting the Stage
• Introduction• Goals of this document• Assumptions
– Evaluation if true– Evaluation if false– Dependence/independence
• Key game changers
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Make
• Central generation– Nuclear– Coal– Gas– Bio mass– Bio gas– Etc.
• Distributed generation– Wind– Solar– Run of the river– Micro Hydro– Fuel cells– Health clubs (people power)
– Etc.
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Make
• Central generation– Nuclear
• SMALL AND THORIUM
– Coal– Gas– Bio mass– Bio gas– Etc.
• Distributed generation– Wind– Solar– Run of the river– Micro Hydro– Fuel cells– Health clubs (people power)
– Etc.– What is needed to control make
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Move• Materials
– Super conductors– Nano materials– Composites – Super di‐electrics– Silicon carbides
• Reliability– Intelligent switching devices– Restoration robotics– Networks and resiliency
• Power electronics– Solid state circuits– FACTS devices
• Substations (step downs)• Sensors
– Substations– Lines
• Clean switching devices• New contact materials• Post SF6 devices• Hybrid devices (partial mechanical –
bypass)
• Protection– Algorithms– Plug and play DER– Devices– Adaptive protection schemes– Layered control
• Intelligence
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Move• Research challenges
– Switching transients– Materials– Line life extensions– Sustainable structures– Higher energy underground capability– Long distance directional boring– Conduit rehabilitation– Location of existing lines– Mixed A/C D/C systems– Dynamic line rating– Long distance transmission
• Africa to europe• Underwater transmission• Half wave transmission lines
– Multi terminal DC systems– High voltage isolation devices– Automated phase balancing– Ultra high voltage/ ultra distrance transmission
• 2 million volts – 10,000 amps• 5,000 kilometers• Multi‐tap
– Pure silicon‐carbide deviced circuit
• Beyond wires– Mentioned– Power maser– Pizio electric (acoustic)– Hydrogen transportation of energy
• Underground distribution– DC– Long distance underground systems
• Mobile storage (battery/hydrogen trains)
• Micro grids• Remote villages• Off the grid locations• Transmission/control area
islanding
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Use• Issues– Energy efficiency
• Energy star, etc
– Load factor• Changing use patterns, reduced load factors for
residential customers
– Peak shaving – Consumer as a generator– Seasonal use patterns
• Consumer characteristics– Commercial
• Intelligent buildings
– Industrial • Intelligent plants
– Residential• Consumer electronics• Intelligent appliances• Consumer “apps”
– Customer vs 3rd party control
– Variation by geography• Rural/urban/latitude
– DC / AC systems• All DC data centers (why did they do this?)
– Define the area of independence (meter level, uGrid level, substation) assuming that is our objective
• Transportation (need inputs from the transportation society or committee –check 2011 GM presentations)
– Consumer vehicles– Commercial vehicles (heavy vehicles)– Mass transit– Next generation transit systems (pod cars)– Interface to the grid
• Storage– Thermal– Chemical– Kinetic
• Demand Management programs– TOU/RTP– DLC
• Intelligent systems– Building systems– Neighborhoods (micro grid?)– Role in operation and control– Agents and distributed control
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Use• Research challenges
– DC switches for buildings and homes– Dealing with the arc issues for DC– How to adapt the off grid DC home technology to be on
grid– DC bus for homes and buildings?– What voltage– How to allow plug and unplug consumer loads– Optimal bus design for future buildings– Define the area of independence – Storage use and storage technologies– Communications protocols– Energy efficiency– Large scale energy storage– Long term energy storage– Behavior based controller (psychology of the user)
• Consumer involvement– Transparent– Automation– Education– Value– Standards?– Psychology– Human interface design– Potential control devices
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Use Key Asumptions• End use (load + storage) equipment evolves so as to follow generation rather the contrary
• Customer continue to invest little or no energy in tracking the energy they consume
• Technologies and services make point 1 transparent to the consumer
• Energy storage plays a large role in this (alternative is to have a large disc conductor that interconnects all global customer)
• We assume that the consumer has moved towards energy independance
Use Requirements in setting the stage
• Assumptions– Evaluation if true– Evaluation if false – populations recede, commodity prices make many technologies cost prohibitive – what are the implications of 100% transportation being electrified
– Dependence/independence – at what level of the customer? New concepts of reliability
• Key game changers – High performance energy storage (long life times, rapid charge‐discharge, high efficiencies)
– Innovations in materials that make long distance transmission (1000s of km) close to lossless
Use Objections or feedback• Don’t quite understand the goal of independance of loads being a desirable characteristics, re: independance versus dependance
• 11 billion people living according to today’s standard of living
• Standardization requirements: transportation, DC systems, support of microgrids
• Suggest that very little emphasis be placed on ICT and security
• Control and operations could possibly be integrated with with other three – depends on the outlines
Operations and Control• Span of control
– Generation/T/D/Microgrids/loads/DER/topology
• Sensors– PMU and wide area control
• Control systems– Distributed operations and control
• Microgrids
– Joint optimization • CHP and other uses beyond electrical
– Demand response• Price based• Demand based• Direct load control• Other methods
• Applications– Simulation– Forecasting– Maintenance– Market Balancing– Planning– Design– Control– Agent management– Rules bases– Reporting and auditing– System status and security– Power quality– Aggregation– DER management– Management of intermittent sources– Ancillary services– Storage management– RAS and cascading failure prevention
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Operations and Control• Applications (cont.)
– GIS– Asset management– Visualization– Balancing– Power flow management– Dispatch– Switching– Congestion management– Dynamic rating – Environmental management– Control area management (do we
need them in 2050)– Islanding management
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Operations and Control• Research challenges
– Agent management– Rule based control– Interoperations– Market operations– Peer to peer markets– Power quality management– Mobile load and source management
(PEV)– Demand response forecasting (who,
what and where and how much)– Weather impacts on Demand
Response– How to prevent cascading failures– Intermittency mitigation– How do deal with non‐responsive
control nodes – assume what?
• Research challenges (cont)– How do deal with uncertainty in
forecasts (mostly for intermittent resources, but also for loads)
– Long term forecasting– Multi‐scale forecasting and control
(planning horizon to real time)– Real time simulation of the grid
based on real data and current/possible configurations
– What control belongs are what level– How much control has to be retained
at the top level for grid stability– What mechanisms exist in the grid
for stability control and system security when the grid is fully renewable based
– How many layers of control are needed/optimal/too many
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Operations and Control• Research challenges
– What are the control variables– What can be controlled reliably
(T/D/DER/DR/Microgrids, etc)– Agent corruption management– Agent based control limits
• Intermittency management and forecasting
• Layered control• State estimation/knowledge
• Computing requirements for operations and control
• Consumer aspect• Interdependency of control and
communications
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ICT• Knowledge management• Data management• Expert systems• Data transmission• Prioritization of messages• How do you share the data
between layers and applications
• Research challenges– 40 year life controllers – Electronics standards for hostile
environments– Determining which data to store– How to determine how much
bandwidth is enough for the life cycle of the system (same for data storage and application memory)
– Analytics – how to build a Lego set of analytics tools that can be used by any user on any data set
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Focus on research challenges and needs
ICT• Research challenges
– Deterministic networks– Known processing times– Prioritization of traffic– Management of multiple layers of
decision making– Human interface limits for operators
at control centers– Optimal decision presentation– Real time simulation support– Automated FMEA and root cause
analysis with incomplete information– Determining if the loss of
communication is communications or grid based
• Research challenges– How much data do you share – what
is critical– How to manage data transmission in
real time– How to deal with remote upgrades of
devices– Managing large numbers of remote
controller rule bases– Interdependency between control
systems, communications systems and other systems and the knock on effects
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Focus on research challenges and needs
Security
• Simplification of requirements from NISTIR 7826 to a set of requirements
• Resist attack and learn from attacks
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Conclusions & Recommendations
• Research needs• Standards needs• Recommendations for policy makers
• Industry roadmap• Follow on work for this document
• Thanks to…
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Bibliography
• IEEE references• Non‐IEEE references
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Home Work1. Find people for your team for your chapter2. Flesh out your outlines3. What are key assumptions you need to make4. Think about “setting the stage” and what
needs to be in it5. Objections to anything we have done to date
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Assumptions1. Population grows2. Laws of physics remain3. Fusion not commercially available4. No space based industry5. Assets will be used for their full life cycle6. Environmentalists will keep the pressure up7. Price pressure will increase8. Regulation remains for the monopoly parts of the industry9. Global economy grows
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Agenda Tuesday• Chapter outline reviews
– Deeper outlines– Team members– Holes in the team abilities
• Setting the stage discussion– Unifying themes for the document– Key assumptions– Key goals
• Objections and Issues
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