Vision And Five Regions
-
Upload
continuing-education-at-uvm -
Category
Technology
-
view
2.384 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Vision And Five Regions
The Next 10 YearsA Choice of Visions
What Does It Look Like?
Why Is It Important?Presented by Joel A. Barker, futurist, author, filmmaker
Vision is…
Dreams in
action!
Vision’s Importance
Clarifies purpose Gives direction Empowers beyond assets
Five Scholars
Fred Polak--Dutch Benjamin Singer--Canadian Viktor Frankl--Austrian Martin Seligman--American James Collins--Californian
Fred Polak
The Image of the Future WWII triggered his scholarship Why did the Nazis do so well?
Polak
Decided it was their image of their future Theory: vision precedes great
performance
Polak
Studied Western civilization to see if it were true
Found many examples Discovered vision is about pulling,
not pushing
Polak’s Grid
Characteristics Influence Essence
Optimism
Pessimism
Polak’s Grid
Characteristics Influence Essence
Optimism Most Powerful
Pessimism
Polak’s Grid
Characteristics Influence Essence
Optimism
Pessimism Least Powerful
Polak’s Conclusions
Visionary nations outperform their assets
“Perhaps a civilization’s mightiest leveris its own image of its future.”
Vision for USA
Can you name 10 goals that the United States wants to achieve by 2025?
Viktor Frankl
Man’s Search for Meaning Austrian Jew Psychiatrist Spent WWII in concentration camps
Frankl
Observed it was impossible to predict who would survive by standard measures: youth strength health brains
Frankl
None of those assets turned out to be useful measures over the long term.
Most useful measure: There was something important yet undone waiting in their future.
Frankl
All of those who made it throughhad something significant yet to do.
They outperformed their assets
Benjamin Singer
Canadian educational psychologist
“The Future Focused Role Image.”
Vision’s influence on children
Singer
Looked at school performance grades leadership teacher recommendations
Singer
Interviewed two ends of spectrum Asked students to describe their future Found startling correlation
Singer
Top students had strong/long visions Bottom students had no vision
Specifics of successful students
Long time horizons
Multiple alternatives
A belief that their own behaviormade a big difference in howtheir future turned out
Specifics of nonsuccessful
Very short time horizons
No idea of what they were going to be
Believed their lives were inthe hands of fate
Singer
Could not find these two extremes by measuring: IQ family structure economic structure race gender culture
Singer conclusion
Children with vision outperformed their assets
Successful students had one thing in common: a profound belief in their future and their ability in their own efforts to shape it!
James Collins
Built to last with Jerry Porras Study of corporations with and without vision
Good to Great A study of mediocre corporation that became
great corporations
The Research
Studied Parallel companies same industry same resources same starting point One was visionary, one was not
The difference
Extraordinary Investing $1.00 in 1926 in 3 categories
general stock market nonvisionary company visionary company
Results of investment in 1990
General Market--$415 Nonvisionary company--$955
The Payoff
Visionary Company--$6356 15X the market 6X its competitor
Definitely outperformed their assets
Collins Conclusion
Enormous advantage to have institutional vision!
Accessible to all
Key Influencers of Vision
Family & friends
Leaders
the media
Collective Observations
Vision works at all levels of human endeavor
Vision helps people and collectivesoutperform their assets
Positive vision ennobles the human spirit
Which is most influential?
Family & Friends, Leaders, Media: in Europe? in Asia? in South America? in North America?
Media’s influence
What kind of messages do the media usually convey to us?
Negative Examples
Religious wars Terrorism Loss of medical care Energy costs Loss of biodiversity Failing infrastructure
Global competition Bankruptcy Loss of jobs to China Global climate
change Devaluation of the
dollar
The Negative Vision Question
If the future is only going to get worse,then what is the best day of your life?
Mass Media influence
Profoundly negative “Front page” negative Inaccurate description of the real world:
What’s the likelihood of you being killed by terrorists in the next five years compared to death in an auto accident?
The Impact of Negative Information
Destroys the power of positive vision
Shapes our “vision” filters to only see the bad
Five Regions of the Future
A New Way to Look at the Evolution of Tomorrow’s
Technology
Introduction
We have more solutions than problems New way of looking at technology TechnEcologies Choice between technologies
Geography of Technology
Super Tech Limits Tech Local Tech Nature Tech Human Tech
Five Regions
Characterizing a Technology
Attitude toward material wealth? View of science and technology? View its relationship with nature? View of work and leisure?
Super Tech
Super Tech
1. Superabundance is just around the corner.2. Science and technology, given enough
time and money, can solve all problems.3. It is time for human beings to move
beyond mother nature with our own devices.
4. Given the choice, human beings will always choose leisure over work.
Fusion Power
Fission
Oil and Natural Gas
Methane Gas Hydrate
Orbital solar
Sony Robot
Robotic Arm
Hypersonic Planes
Private Orbiters
Very Fast Boats
Deep Sea Hawk
Eye Implant
Weather Control
Fish Farming
L5 Space Colonies
Terraforming Mars
Three Shades of Green
A Different Way
To Look at Sustainability
Limits Tech
Limits Tech
1. We must learn to live within the limits of our planet
2. Science and technology, as they have been used in the past century, are Faustian contracts, bringing short term advantages but long term disaster.
3. Mother nature knows best.4. Human beings are going to have to work
very hard if they want to survive.
The Good News
"EEStor -- A Texas company
technology is a tenth the weight and volume of lead-acid batteries, and significantly smaller than the most advanced chemical batteries today.
300 miles before recharge
Negawatts
LEDs
Aerogel
Bendable concrete
PreFab Home
Metal foam stuff
Hybrids
Baby Benz
Air Powered Car
Fuel Cell Motorcycle
250 mph train
12,000 mpg
LmT Spin Launcher
Spin Me Up, Scotty
Tony Randazzo for AA Reps
Telecommute
Limits Book
$100 computer
Programmable Clothing
Recycling
Rubber Sidewalks
Plastic bridge
Terra Preta
Amazonian “Slash and Char”
Local Tech
Local Tech
1. There is a sufficient amount of resources in the world for everybody.
2. Science and technology are OK as long as they are properly scaled.
3. Humans are the shepherds of nature.
4. Humans needs to work to become fully human.
Wind Power
Sea Snakes
Bobbing Buoy Generators
Solar
Decentralized Power
Solar Power Tower
Geothermal
Underground Homes
Straw Bale Homes
Solar Light Bulb
Local Tech Refrigerator
Fog Nets
Bicycles
TWIKE
Segways
Smooth Rollers
Airships
Copyright © Worldwide Aeros Corp. All Rights Reserved.1734 Gage Road, Montebello, CA 90640-6504
Phone 818-344-3999, Fax 323-201-8383
ST Flying Hotel
Peter
Bollinger
John
MacNeill
High Atmosphere Dirigible
An artist's concept of a Lockheed Martin
Nature Tech
Nature Tech
1. All human needs can be filled using Nature’s systems.
2. Mother Nature has already solved all of our problems. Science’s job is to find her answers and create compatible technologies using those solutions.
3. Our relationship with nature is that of a co-equal partner.
4. Our work is to learn to live well with Nature.
Ethanol
Hydrogen producing bacteria
Bio Battery
Bacterial Electricity
Exothermic plants
Bioluminescence
Vertigro
Colored Cotton
Spider Silk
Kenaf
Natural Plastics
Nature’s Designs
Medicines
Maggots
Biofilms
Gecko Feet Glue
Butterfly LEDs
Tree Talk
Computing
NT Tree House
Spin Me Up, Scotty
Tony Randazzo for AA Reps
Graham
Murdoch
Call to action
Human Tech
Human Tech
1. The real needs of humans are not material needs.
2. Science is only now learning how to measure human technology.
3. God or Mother Nature or evolution, depending on your point of view, has endowed us with extraordinary capabilities.
4. Our true work is to know ourselves.
Bilateral Symmetry
Pheromones
Chronobiology
Stem Cells
Genome
Healing with your head
Health
Placebos
Teamwork
Intelligence
Manufacturing
Wisdom of Crowds
James Surowiecki large groups of people are smarter than an
elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.
Blink
Malcolm Gladwell rapid cognition, about the kind of thinking
that happens in a blink of an eye Power of thin slicing Knowing what to look for
Universal Technologies
Super conducting wire
UT Nanotube Fabric
Aluminum Glass Armor
UT Computer
Cell phones
E Book
3-D Lithography
TDP/Thermal Conversion
Bio Technology
Dreams, Hope, and Visionby Debbe Kennedy
Dreams give us hope.Hope ignites Passion.Passion leads us to enVision success.Visions of success open our minds to recognize possibilities
Far-reaching Possibilities help us enlist Support from others.
Support from others keeps us focusedand committed.
Focus and commitment foster action.
Action leads to Progress.Progress leads to Achievement. Achievement inspires Dreams.Dreams give us hope.