Vision 2030 - How mobile market research will fit in for stakeholders across the insights...
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Transcript of Vision 2030 - How mobile market research will fit in for stakeholders across the insights...
October 8 – 11 2013, London
WWW.MRMW.NET
The original, premier event for the Mobile Marketing Research Industry
WWW.MRMW.NET
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Overview
Many predictions surrounding 2030
Mobile Market Research will be the industry standard
Mobile Market Research will be nothing like it is today
Method
Over 80 qualitative interviews
Over 15,000 quantitative interviews
Some desk research
Qualitative interviews – thanks to:
Covering every continent Mixture of agency, Client, consultancy, technology
Jamie Burke (9010)
Clare Chul (Avon)
Isaac Rogers (2020)
Peter Searll (Dashboard)
Gemma Stephenson
(Active Group)
Sally Smallmann
(Diageo)
David Nelems (Active Group)
Maarten Kallenberg
(InsightAsia)
Dave Lee (PSL)
Guy Rolfe
(Kantar)
Kim-Fredrik Schneider
(World One)
Pravin Shekar (Krea)
Birju Jani (mrJunctio
n)
Andy Lees
(Lumi Mobile)
Alistair Hill (On Device)
Mark Halliday
(Manning Gottlieb)
David Newman (Oxford
University)
Graeme Sparshott
(McDonald’s)
Ana Alvarez
(PepsiCo)
Fiona Blades (Mesh)
Fiona Blades (Mesh)
Garry Kasparov
Eric Grosgogeat
(FocusVision)
James Burge
(Research
Now)
Arno Hummerston (GfK)
Marion Koudenburg (Heineken)
Joe Staton (GfK)
Edward Appleton
(Avery Dennison)
Douglas Hunter
(Google)
Andreiko Kerdemelidis
(RBS)
Orlando Hooper-Greenhill
(JWT)
Simon Falconer
(TNS)
Alex Johnson (Kantar)
Lord Leverhulme (Unilever)
Helen Bennie
(Shopper Insight)
Judith Passingham
(TNS)
Paul Roberts
(SPA Future
Thinking)
Reitsma (Forrester Research
Alexander Linder
(Swaeovski)
Joe Webb (TNS)
John Branston (Research
Partnership)
Robert Kramer (TNS)
Aysegul Ataman
Scharning (Techneostrategy)
Ben Leet (Usamp)
David Feick (T-Mobile)
Ray Poynter (Vision Critical)
Martin Tomlinson
(Research
Now)
Peter Teachman
(Millward
Brown)
Ian McKinnon
(Kantar Health)
Bob Dance
(Fresh Minds)
Jeremy Carpenter
(Kantar Mobile)
MC Lai
(Ipsos)
Phil Garland
(Survey
Monkey)
Barry Ooi
(Conversation Zone)
Lenny Murphy
(Greenbook)
Richard Scionti
(Prophet)
VP,
(Double Helix)
Roxanna Strohmenger
(Forrester)
Jan Schottelndreier (Cluetec)
Carol Haney (Toluna)
Zoe Dowling (Added Value)
Finn Raben
(ESOMAR)
Steve August
(Revelation)
Robert Wang
(Morgan Stanley)
David Shim
(Placed)
Jayne Dow
(Firefly)
Alan Yelsey (KVS
Studio)
Stuart Ryder
(Ipsos)
Peter Kirk (WorldOne
)
Sharon Hallock (TNS)
Many predictions surrounding 2030
Say what you will about Nostradamus …
OR
Many predictions surrounding 2030
Many economic forecasts
The World is evolving
People all around the World expect significant developments in mobile
Rank Shift in GDP, by PPP $
Rank 2010 2030
1 United States China
2 China United States
3 Japan India
4 India Japan
5 Germany Russia
6 Russia Germany
7 UK Brazil
8 France UK
9 Brazil France
10 Italy Mexico
11 Mexico South Korea
12 South Korea Indonesia
13 Spain Italy
14 Canada Canada
15 Indonesia Spain * Euromonitor / GfK
Example: Are we ready for 1bn more China tourists?
Now 2020e
1.4 bn
390 mn middle class
Airports
Hotels
Language
Milk
$95bn – 2012
Expectations high
* Euromonitor / GfK
2030
Our research …
Survey deployed using GMI / Lightspeed and client sample
Responses from 15,000+ people
Over 90% within 1 day
12000+ images uploaded
Covered all major regions
55% found it ‘fun’, less than 1% ‘boring’
Big picture for 2030
We will be wearing mobile devices
Over 4 out of 10 expect the eyes to control the device
Richard Scionti
Devices may be
somewhat function specific but collectively
your “wearable network” will far exceed the
capabilities available in today’s mobile.
Wearable devices account for nearly 2/3 of peoples expectations
20%
33%
10%
20%
9%
8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Smart phone
Spectacles
Contact lens
Arm patch on clothes
A brain implant
Liquid-gel
Even less of a ‘phone’ than today
Etiquette and rule shifts
Transport
Family
There is a colleague of ours who we refer to as
"The Man who isn't there" because he is so
connected to his mobile
Judith Passingham
School
Business
Robot Wars or Robot Laws?
Alistair Hill
Mobile is critical
World Bank Spokesperson
More people have [mobile] access to
internet today in Africa than they do to clean
water or even sanitation.
Digital/Web is probably more important than air for many …
I think people are probably learning more online than in
schools, teachers will probably be replaced by robots soon.
MC Lai
Mobile is invisible
We’ll soon be living in a real life matrix – if you’re not plugged in
you will literally be separated from the rest of the world.
Robert Wang
People won't notice computers, in the same way
they don't notice sheet metal, but they will be everywhere and in everything from lightbulbs to
packets of juice, in almost constant contact with us and our environment.
Andreiko Kerdemeledis
The internet will be such an intrinsic part of
every device and interaction we have,
we’ll stop even realizing it exists at all.
Issac Rogers
Many predictions surrounding 2030
Mobile Market Research will be the industry standard
Mobile Market Research will be the industry standard
Mobile will be everywhere
Data will be everywhere and all-encompassing
Some markets will be mobile only
The shape of the MR industry will change
Mobile everywhere
Marcus Wikars
The best use of mobile is pretty much everything! MR doesn’t consider
mobile enough in proposals, because in general, researchers selling to clients don’t have good enough knowledge of its capabilities or
limitations.
Dave Lee
There are no businesses for whom mobile is not relevant. If you’re in
business, you need to be in mobile. And if you’re in market research you need to
be thinking ahead of your clients.
It’s not a question of if you add mobile to your
research mix, but when.
Reineke Reitsma
. Researchers seek to further exploit the high penetration of mobile
phones
ESOMAR GMR 2012 Report
Therefore data everywhere
Data used to be scarce – now it is everywhere and more
highly detailed. The challenge is to make sense of it, numbers, verbatims, rich
media (audio, video, images) social impressions, millions of
data points
A defining trend of the next hundred
years will be digital information driven via mobile platforms. The defining
technology for our species, for the next hundred years, will be mobile…
Lenny Murphy
Our connection to the digital world will literally become a sixth sense. We’ll be studying a digital
footprint of consumers, rather than relying on reported behavior
Isaac Rogers
David Nelems
Some markets will be mobile only
Aysegul Ataman Scharning
Mobile is just another channel...unless you
live in Africa - then its the ONLY channel.
Peter Searll
Emerging markets will be the focus while more and more market research will be conducted about Asia. Mobile surveys will be adopted more easily than any
other tool in market research.
In a place like Nigeria if it's not face to face
it'll be straight to mobile.
Debbie Pruent
But who will lead?
The US market is more ahead of the curve than most; at least in my industry, there is more opportunity for virtual research in the US than in, for instance Japan, which can be extremely restrictive with privacy laws and what can be done.
VP, Double Helix
Lenny Murphy
APAC will probably lead in some of the more advanced, early applications of mobile due to their cultural fascination with technology, manufacturing capacity of low cost devices and robust infrastructure. On the other hand, the US will lead the market from a business perspective, with the rest of the world following on quickly.
The innovation will come from America … China will copy at 20%
of the price
Garry Kasparov
The industry reports will show a different landscape
40
<0.1
Non Mobile Research
Mobile Research
40 Non Mobile
Research
Mobile Research
** Up to $300bn
* Estimates in $bn ** Based on qualitative discussions with industry leaders
2012 2030
Many predictions surrounding 2030
Mobile Market Research will be the industry standard
Mobile Market Research will be nothing like it is today
Mobile Market Research will be nothing like it is today
The impact of mobile is colossal
Different data needs a different approach
New research models will evolve
Debriefs and outputs will be more dynamic
Need to embrace change
Implications for us all
Colossal Impact
BULLDOZER…..that’s what will be the effect of mobile in MR.
A typical MR project will be in the DIY mold where the power is in the hands
of the one who needs answers.
Biz and MR is going to change. And mobile in MR is NOT just survey apps and the like. We need to have a
blinders-off approach.
Pravin Shekar
Back to Nostradamus
MR as we know it today will not exist in 2030.
Data capture replaces Data collection. Synthesizing
“Why” questions into people’s consumer experience will
replace the traditional questionnaire.
Go mobile or go home.
There is a healthy and exciting future for market research albeit
one where disruption will fundamentally change the nature
of our business.
The current business model of market research is not
sustainable with this level of technological disruption
Lenny Murphy
I don't think the current model in many agencies is sustainable unless
they can use AI to do the analysis and outsourcing can be problematic
Graeme Sparshott
Colin Strong
Richard Scionti
The value of privacy
The tension between privacy and
sharing of our data will continue, yet we will become more knowledgeable on what it means to share data, and we will see further regulations and
guidelines built into data acquisition for commercial purposes.
Carol Haney
. And while there’s an uneasiness associated with this today - I wonder if this is something
we’ll just take for granted 20 years from now.
Ian McKinnon
People expect that they are being tracked and are comfortable with it – as long as the information is
being used to help them in someway. It’s not creepy if it’s USEFUL
Jayne Dow
Different data sources need a different approach
The way we get an answer to a question will change. Small
clumps of information coming from diverse set of sources.
A huge thing that researchers will need to do in the future is letting
go of consistency.
Alex Johnson
Challenge the existing measures of the industry. As lifestyles change in
response to technology, the research industry needs to ensure they are
measuring the right things.
Graeme Sparshott
Market research will become augmented, bite-sized, and auto-analyzed. Auto collected behavioral data will be dominant
with less focus on opinion data. This yields an efficient compilation of data that will help us come to real time decision
making points. Peter Kirk
Constant data stream = new skills and players
People are increasingly willing to openly provide detailed self profiling, life-streaming
around consumption habits, moods and emotions as well as desires and needs.
With such a mass of highly individuated data,
market research is going to have to get serious about building systems that can handle big data. So the only players that can win in the long game are
IT companies that borrow research know-how to build the algorithms.
Jamie Burke
Agency role is more specific
You need an agency to be concise in the collection and insightful in
the delivery – combining data collection with consultancy – out
of necessity rather than just trying to move up the value chain or
make ourselves feel important. Two agencies or one?
Arno Hummerston
There is a divide of research skills skilled in data collection and then
figuring out what’s appropriate and useful,
and when.
Robert Kramer
And so are people
Humans are inconsistent, slow and expensive –
technology is not
Ray Poynter
If we don't have a clear vision for our future role and where we are headed as an industry we will struggle to recruit and train our future leaders and
innovators.
James Burge
The School of Hard Knocks
CEOs and companies should LISTEN. ADAPT. EXPERIMENT.
EXPAND. REPEAT. RAPIDLY.
Pravin Shekar
Test, and learn. 80% or indeed 70% today is more
than good enough in many scenarios rather
than waiting for 100% tomorrow.
Jayne Dow
Give your people permission to fail – that’s the only way they will be able
and willing to try new things.
Simon Falconer
The horse has already bolted
The scary part is that most of this Iron-man like technology already exists, its just not quite been put together in the right package (or in the right
size) to make it work… we just need to see a consolidation around key
services, key providers, and a bringing together of what already exists, along with an industry that’s
open enough to accept the new.
Joe Webb
It won’t be easy. Many challenges ahead
Connecting with people will be harder
Marketing becomes easier in 10 years. Fewer channels to cover, and a more
direct connection to the consumer wherever they are, marketers have an easier time finding their consumers.
The struggle will be to make a connection with that consumer. We’ll be better at digesting new information and more
overall content, it’ll be harder to deliver a marketing message that isn’t directly
targeted at the specific consumer. In a way, the consumer is easier to find
but harder to touch.
Isaac Rogers
We’ll shift from casting wide nets to very narrow ones – because [today]
there’s a lot of noise and a lot of waste – so imagine a
place where there’s a lot less guessing – and a lot
more of a direct relationship between the
individual and advertising, buying, selling …
Phil Garland
Control of your own data
This move towards so called big data will lead to, under data
protection legislation, the user taking a more proactive role in
managing their own data. Trade your own data for rewards, be
provided with rewards based on the data profiles you upload.
Paul Roberts
Market research will specialize in meaningful
exchanges with consumers. This access
will most likely come at a high price as consumers begin to see the value in
their opinion and personal data.
Josephine Hansom
Dealing with the data
When it comes to the future of big data, we need a reciprocal give and take with the consumer – right now
the value exchange is not clear. .
David Shim
Bob Dance
Jan Schottelndreier
I think/hope there will be better handle on the ‘big data’ topic … adding another 17 years with lots of new cool web information and other services,
there will be huge amounts of data … someone needs to sort it out and
make sense of it…
So the advent of personalised information requires us to rethink our
modus operandi … We will need to change from being providers of non interventionist data interpretation to
a more direct role in improving consumer experiences as a direct
result of them talking to us …
We need to capture knowledge, not just data. That’s where
the value lies.
Alan Yelsey
Embracing change – the need for new methods
.
Innovations will lead to more data and more complex ways of looking
at data, however they will also bring about more creative,
engaging and less taxing ways of collecting information from
consumers.
Jeremy Carpenter
Roxie Strohmenger
It’s all about reframing how we get insights from consumers. We must use mobile as a vehicle as it opens up so many new avenues that we didn’t have before.
Peter Teachman
Debriefs are not a single event
Edward Appleton
Data becomes stale very quickly. Innovations that allow
real-time analysis to form actionable insight will emerge.
Fast Data will be an organisation’s lifeblood. Ignore
the Fast Data and you lose your edge.
Andreiko Kerdemeledis
Debriefs can encourage conservative thinking.
Insights become powerful, acted upon, through an
ongoing dialogue. Business challenges constantly
change.
We need to evolve
Short. Focused. We live in a 140 character world – people live in sound bites
and their attention span has adjusted to match. We as researchers need to
accommodate this shift.
Zoe Dowling
Biggest Challenge: The mindsets of research buyers and researchers. The sun is
setting on the 200-page quarterly analysis and the
50-page monthly tracker. Researchers will
need to learn how to find and tell the stories in new ways.
Stuart Ryder
MR companies will need to adapt their communication styles to
how people learn today – this will mean greater use of technology,
focussing on the key big learnings, interactive tools, not just the
'presentation workshop‘.
Graeme Sparshott
Mobile is the Tool – not the Solution
Steve August
Expect a dizzying array of choices when it comes to mobile
research. But remember mobile doesn’t automatically mean good
research. Mobile is simply a medium that gives you the opportunity to get
closer to your customers than ever before. It's still takes research skills to
make mobile deliver.
Don’t chase technology.
Technology is a tool to uncover
insights. Chase insights.
Stuart Ryder
. The beauty of mobile is not about the device – it’s the
state of being .
Jayne Dow
Typical research project?
1. More inputs; blurred qual quant boundaries; more Partnerships with tech businesses; . 2. Client data + open behavioral data + proprietary passive & active behavioural and (short-form) survey data 3. Will also include:
• Text analytics/NLP/network analysis..... • Algorithms for more personalised research experience and
incentives, improving participation rates and openness (e.g. Amazon)
• More inputs from 'quantified self' (aka 'living data') sources • Neuroscience inputs • Video via mobile and other mobile meta data such as location,
environmental conditions etc.
Simon Falconer
Inertia will remain a problem
Marcus Wikars
We are lazy creatures
Inertia. Reliance on norms. The hassle of truly embracing
emerging markets.
Ben Leet
Front and center
Kim-Fredrik Schneider
In a world of digital proliferation and diversification, our
understanding of the consumer at the centre of all activity is
fundamental. The extent to which mobile is
synonymous with the consumer will be a central component of this
understanding.
Judith Passingham
Mobile is Dead. Long Live Mobility.
Mobile market research will have to be a fundamental
element of any MR project. To get to the people you want to get to – you have to use mobile – it will be the most facilitating and meaningful
point of contact.
Finn Raben
Not there yet
Collecting data using a mobile device is a huge buzz in the
industry, but it hasn’t replaced other modes of data collection … yet. When it does happen –
it’s going to transform portions of the MR industry.
Carol Haney
. I think the future will look more like today than we expect. As an
example: I was in the airport, walking past a newsstand where there was a
magazine with a grumpy looking Buzz Aldrin with the quote, “You
promised us Mars colonies and all we got was Facebook.”
Steve August
The medium opens so many possibilities but it seems to be taking a long time for the industry
to embrace these!
Fiona Blade
Tech solutions to handle large volumes of qual data
Mobile friendly approximations for long methods
Creative applications of mobile for NEW methods
Some things will remain the same
Lord Leverhulme
Businesses will still have problems that need fixing. Technology,
devices will change. But you still need people to answer questions. Technology and inference can only go so far. There is a fundamental
need that will remain.
Alistair Hill
I know that half of the money I spend is wasted. I just don't know which half.
Much like the Wizard of Oz
Like the Tin Man: Do we have the
heart?
Like the Scarecrow: Do we have the
brains?
And like the Lion: Do we have the courage?
In Summary
$300 bn industry?
Mobile the central role
Are you ready for 2030?
WWW.MRMW.NET
TITLE SPONSOR DIAMOND SPONSOR PLATINUM SPONSOR GOLD SPONSORS
WORKSHOP SPONSORS SILVER SPONSORS
PREMIERE SPONSOR
APP SPONSOR NETWORKING SPONSOR PREMIERE SPONSOR
WWW.MRMW.NET
MEDIA & ASSOCIATION PARTNERS
October 8 – 11 2013, London
WWW.MRMW.NET
The original, premier event for the Mobile Marketing Research Industry