Virtual Currencies& Blockchain Technology

CTAGGL

May 1 & 2, 2019

The views expressed are those of the presenter

only and do not necessarily represent the views

of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the

Federal Reserve System

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What is a “virtual currency”?

❑ “A type of stored-value product or digital money…issued

and usually controlled by its developers, and used and

accepted among the members of a virtual community.” (FRB

Board)

▪ a.k.a. digital currencies, alternative currencies, cryptocurrencies,

altcoins; decentralized Internet protocols

❑ Not issued by a federal government (not a “fiat currency”)

or backed by a central bank

❑ Generally used in electronic, Web-based transactions

❑ “Open source”: All rules, algorithms, security scheme, etc., openly available

❑ May involve legal, credit, liquidity, fraud, operational, information security, privacy, law enforcement, and other payment system risks

Virtual Currencies

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❑ Reduction in transaction costs▪ Especially for cross-border transactions

▪ Possibly for merchant processing

❑ Useful in countries where:▪ Social or political climate may lead to distrust of local

currencies, and

▪ There is a high degree of Internet connectivity

❑ Opportunities in areas like “smart contracts,” notary

services and tracking asset ownership ▪ More on that later…

Potential benefits of VCs

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❑ Launched 2009 (“Satoshi Nakamoto”)

❑ Permits transfer of currency online, directly, anonymously and outside government control

❑ Origins: Fundamentally political; attracted followers among libertarian and anarchist groups

▪ A means of removing the money supply from the hands of government

❑ Subsequently attracted attention from computer developers, venture capitalists, and merchants (alternative to traditional payments)

Bitcoin

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❑ All transactions are recorded in the “blockchain”

▪ Searchable public ledger where all transactions are confirmed, in a matter of minutes, by a network of computers working to perform complex algorithms

❑ New bitcoins are created through “mining”

▪ The first to perform the complicated hash correctly earns bitcoins

▪ When you request a bitcoin transaction, you can increase the incentive for a miner to process it quickly by adding a fee (a.k.a. “tip”)

▪ The average person can’t really be a bitcoin miner, because of the computing power now required

Bitcoin

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❑ $136b of digital currencies in circulation (CoinMarketCap.com)▪ 2,086 Cryptocurrencies

❑ Bitcoin:▪ Dec 17, 2017:

‒ Price = $19,410

▪ Feb 6, 2018:

‒ Price = $6,852

▪ Dec 13, 2018:

‒ Price = $3,433

▪ Jan 7, 2019

– Price = $4,047

Is it money? Or a tulip?

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Source: bitinfocharts.com

Bitcoin – 2017 asset surge, 2018 asset plunge, 2019 ?

Bitcoin Ripple Ethereum Bitcoin Cash

Litecoin Dash

Total:17,468,417 BTC

40,794,121,066XRP

104,247,513 ETH

17,540,527BCH

59,932,546LTC

8,558,206DASH

Price: $4,047.42 $0.37 $154.53 $161.38 $38.16 $83.29

MarketCapitalization:

$70,701,964,462 $15,081,165,275 $16,109,522,530 $2,830,616,570 $2,287,097,447 $712,795,359

Average Transaction Value:

$13,169 $830.58 $52,454 $12,895 $4,485

Transactions –Avg. number per hour

11,656 1,230 22,567 308 978 839

Block Time: 9m 40s 15.3s 11m 5s 2m 30s 2m 38s

Bitcoin and other platforms…A snapshot in time

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January 7, 2019 12:38:42 CT

Source: bitinfocharts.com

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Double Spends

If the VC is just digital codes, why not copy and paste to make more money?

❑ Timestamp

▪ Each transaction is packaged and publicly recorded in the order it was carried out

❑ Hash

▪ The time-stamped group of transactions are given a unique, algorithmically-derived number

❑ Blockchain

▪ Transactions are recorded in a community-built record of all transactions that acts as a proof-of-work

▪ Computers connected to the network accept the longest chain as accurate

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Bitcoin & Merchants

❑ Bitcoin does not allow chargebacks

▪ At least theoretically, less protection for consumers

▪ On the flip side, more protection for merchants

❑ Bitcoin transaction costs are generally cheaper than those

associated with credit/debit cards

▪ Fees for credit card acceptance average 2-3%

▪ Fee for a service like Coinbase is around 1%

❑ Most merchants contract with a service (e.g., Coinbase),

which converts consumers’ bitcoins into dollars and transfers

dollars to the merchant

Bringing Bitcoin payments to the masses?

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Coinbase reports 47,000 merchant clients accepting Bitcoin payments

❑ Bitcoin as a medium of exchange▪ More than 100,000 merchants worldwide accept Bitcoin

(Source: Spendbitcoins.com)

❑ Sept. 2017: Aliant Payment Systems Inc. announced it

will be first ISO to enlist merchants for Bitcoin

acceptance

▪ Will recruit merchants for Atlanta-based BitPay (exchange)

▪ Some retailers of high-end merchandise are now accepting

Bitcoin payments as some investors look to spend their

newfound wealth

‒ E.g., Old Road Harley-Davidson (CA), Lamborghini dealer (CA)

Where to spend my Bitcoins?

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❑ Volatility: +1,700% increase in Bitcoin price in 2017

❑ Slow transactions: Increased traffic on blockchain has

slowed transaction times, leading to rising fees for users

▪ Bitcoin can process ~3 transactions/sec.; Visa: 24,000/sec.

❑ High costs: Miners charge fees to give priority to payments

“If you’re sending a $10 transaction right now, you may see a

miner fee of $3 or $4. It’s a big problem for people who want

to move smaller payments.” —BitPay spokesperson

Barriers to Cryptocurrency Payments

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❑ Is this the bottom?▪ Feb 2018: “stunning collapse”

▪ Analysts: Too soon to tell – watching the 100-day average

Volatility: Up and Down We Go!

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❑ Are we there yet?

▪ Jun 2018: “could post new 2018

lows”– June 28: BTC closed below $6k for

the first time since Nov 12, 2017

▪ Jan 2019: BTC back above $4,000 –

its highest price in over 2 weeks

Source: coinbase.com

Volatile transaction fees

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Other cryptocurrencies are also seeing volatility, just not as dramatic

Source: bitinfocharts.com

❑ Many consumers want to earn points/miles

❑ Miner fees/high transaction costs

▪ Especially for small-dollar payments

❑ See also ‘IRS’ slide…

❑ Result: low consumer adoption

▪ Dish Network began accepting bitcoin in 2014

▪ Less than 1% of total payments are made in Bitcoin

❑ The volume of payment transactions using Bitcoin fell from $427m in Dec 2017 to $96m in Sep 2018, according to data from Chainalysis

Bitcoin & Consumers

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SOURCE: Digital Transactions News, Nov. 20, 2018

❑ Jan 2018: Visa CEO Al Kelly: Visa will not process cryptocurrency

transactions (CNBC interview at the Natl. Retail Federation

conference)

▪ Cryptocurrencies are not a “payment system player”

▪ Visa will accept only fiat currency transactions

❑ 2018: Capital One, BofA, JPMC, Citi and Wells Fargo no longer

allow their cardholders to use credit cards to buy VCs through

Coinbase and other companies

▪ Some issuers charging cash advance fees

VCs: [Not] Everywhere You Want to Be…

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❑ 2018: Message posted on Carder’s Paradise (Dark Web

marketplace):

…“If the Bitcoin price continues increasing, this business is not

going to be profitable for us anymore because all our revenue is

going to be spent on the Bitcoin fees.”

“We urge you to start using Litecoin as much as possible.

Litecoin is a very fast and cheap way of depositing funds into

the store. We are not going to charge any additional fees if you

deposit Litecoins.”

High costs are even squeezing criminals!

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❑ VCs are a “regulatory platypus”; they don’t neatly fit under any of the familiar asset categories.—Marco Santori, partner/head of the blockchain practice, Cooley (NY law firm)

A “Regulatory Platypus”

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❑ CFTC: Bitcoin is a commodity; therefore…

❑ CFTC oversees bitcoin derivatives (e.g., futures contracts listed on CBOE Global Markets and CME Group)

Regulating VCs: CFTC

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❑ IRS: Bitcoin is property, not currency

❑ Advantage for investors: Bitcoin is treated like stocks, a

capital asset subject to a more favorable long-term capital

gains rate

❑ Disadvantage for consumers: ALL Bitcoin transactions are

technically taxable events, whose gains or losses must be

individually tabulated

▪ Contrast this with more streamlined rules regarding

foreign-currency holdings

❑ Nov 2016: IRS served a summons against Coinbase, seeking

details about customers who traded VCs from 2013 to 2015

Regulating VCs: IRS

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❑ New York Division of Financial Services (NYDFS)

▪ VC firms must obtain “BitLicense” and hold higher levels of capital

▪ 7 BitLicenses have been issued:

‒ Square (June 2018); Coinbase; Circle; Xapo; Genesis; bitFlyer; and XRP II (Ripple affiliate)

❑ “California Considers Bill Setting VC Guidelines,” AmericanBanker.com, Mar 3, 2015

▪ “Shelved”

Regulating VCs: States

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❑March 2018: Virtual Currencies FAQ published

❑Two important take-a-ways:

▪ OFAC sanctions regulations apply equally to both fiat currency and virtual currency transactions

▪ OFAC will respond to growing threats posed by bad actors utilizing emerging payment systems by adding digital currency addresses that are associated with blocked persons to the SDN list

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/faqs/Sanctions/Pages/faq_compliance.aspx#vc_faqs

OFAC & Virtual Currencies

Are the rumors of the death of Bitcoin greatly exaggerated?

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Adobe Stock

❑Most new blockchain proposals are looking at:

▪ Limited participant nodes (“permissioned” ledger; only permitted, known participants can validate transactions);

▪ Centralizing all or part of the blockchain ledger;

▪ Paring the blockchain ledger under certain circumstances;

▪ Making blockchain sizes and their analysis more variable;

▪ Incorporating data analytics and probabilities into the verification process

Blockchain/DLT Initiatives

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❑ IBM-led Linux Foundation Hyperledger Project

▪ Building a blockchain on open-source Hyperledger Fabric

▪ 122 members

▪ Incl. Wells Fargo, BBVA, JPMC, the Bank of England, FRB Boston, AmEx

❑ Enterprise Ethereum Alliance

▪ Building a blockchain based on the Ethereum protocol

▪ More than 30 financial services and technology members

▪ Incl. JPMC, Intel

Blockchain/DLT Initiatives

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❑ Creating a “blockchain-inspired” distributed ledger called Corda

❑ 84 members, incl. Barclays, BBVA, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Credit Suisse, RBS, State Street, UBS.

❑ April 2017: JPMC left R3

▪ JPMC’s “decision to use Ethereum was at odds with R3’s decision not to use that system”

▪ Objections among R3 members to Ethereum included issues around: privacy controls, scalability, immutability of transactions, and consensus mechanisms for validating transactions.

Blockchain Initiatives: R3

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❑ JPMC “also going it alone with a distributed ledger Quorum”

▪ Building in-house

▪ Based on the Go Ethereum client, a software program that supports the Ethereum network

▪ JPMC white paper outlines how its blockchain will handle data and contract privacy and consensus mechanisms (the process by which different computers agree on the order and legitimacy of transactions on the network)

Blockchain Initiatives: JPMC’s Quorum

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❑ Walmart: Using DLT to manage supply-chain data for mangoes, berries, other products

❑ System built with IBM

❑ Goal: Help trace source of bad food during product recalls

❑ Farmers, packing-house workers and others along the supply chain use a mobile app from Walmart to send details to Walmart’s blockchain

▪ e.g. harvest dates, locations and images of their fruit

❑ Result: Simulated recall using blockchain allowed Walmart to trace the origin of a bag of sliced mangoes in 2.2 seconds.

▪ Using previous methods, same exercise took 6d, 18h, 26 min

Blockchain Initiatives: Walmart

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❑ 2017: British Airways at London Heathrow, Geneva Intl. Airport and Miami Intl. Airport uploaded their flight operations nearly continuously to their blockchain, giving all parties a view of the same information at the same time

❑ Goal: Stop conflicting flight information from appearing at gates, on airport monitors, at airline websites and in customer apps

❑ Result: “one pure, true instance of data”

Blockchain Initiatives: British Airways

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“Protocols like Ripple and Stellar are ‘getting rid of bilateral legacy processes that banks have been using for years to keep money in their pockets.’”

—Cheryl Gurz, [formerly] managing director, emerging technology segment, BNY Mellon Treasury Services

Blockchain Initiatives: Cross-Border

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Jerome Powell, Fed Chairman:

❑ March 2017 speech:

▪ Technical issues remain with the technology and “governance and

risk management will be critical.”

▪ There are “meaningful” challenges to a central bank

cryptocurrency, that privacy issues could be a problem, and

private-sector alternatives may do the job

❑ At Senate confirmation hearing:

▪ The volume of cryptocurrencies could at some point “matter”

when it comes to monetary policy

▪ “They’re just not big enough” today

The Fed & VCs

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❑ IDEA: The Fed could peg its own VC at a rate of 1-to-1 with the U.S. dollar

❑ This “Fedcoin” would be legal tender, just as banknotes are

❑ New Fedcoins would be introduced into the economy by swapping them for banknotes—one dollar for one Fedcoin

❑ As demand for Fedcoin fluctuated, the Fed could redeem the public’s banknotes for VC, and vice versa,with the Fedcoin protocol allowing the Fed to dispose of superfluous coins (much as it destroys old paper notes)

“FedCoin”

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SOURCE: “Cheat Sheet: Radical Visions of Central Bank-Issued Digital Currencies,” by Brian Patrick Eha, AmericanBanker.com, March 14, 2017

❑ “The idea is a fascinating one, and it looks like the 21st-

century analog of paper currency…”

❑ “The Fed is not considering issuing a digital currency…”

❑ “It’s not something we’re looking at doing. We’re not at a

place where I think that’s going to happen.”—Gov. Jay

Powell

❑ “A digital currency issued by a central bank would be a

global target for cyber attacks, cyber counterfeiting, and

cyber theft.”— Gov. Powell, in prepared remarks at a

conference held at the Yale Law School on payment

technology

“FedCoin”

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SOURCES: “Cheat Sheet: Radical Visions of Central Bank-Issued Digital Currencies,” by Brian Patrick Eha,

AmericanBanker.com, March 14, 2017; “Fed’s Powell Warns of Digital Currency’s Risks,” Reuters, March 3, 2017

❑ Remarks by Lael Brainard at Decoding Digital Currencies Conference, May 2018

▪ “…the still relatively small scale of cryptocurrencies in relation to our broader financial system and relatively limited connections to our banking sector suggest that they do not currently pose a threat to financial stability.”

▪ “Ultimately, a more holistic approach to the security of the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, along with added layers of security on top of cryptography, are likely to be necessary for cryptocurrencies to be widely adopted.”

“The Party Line…”

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❑ Technical and operational challenges

▪ “…unless there is the technological capability for effective identity authentication, a central bank digital currency would provide no improvement over physical notes and could be worse than current noncash funds transfer systems”

▪ “…putting a central bank currency in digital form could make it a very attractive target for cyberattacks by giving threat actors a prominent platform on which to focus their efforts.”

Challenges for a Fed-issued Digital Currency

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❑ Implications for retail banking

▪ “…the parallel coexistence of central bank digital currency with retail banking deposits could raise the risk of runs on the banking system in times of stress and so have adverse implications for financial stability.”

❑No compelling need

▪ “…a multiplicity of mechanisms are likely to be available for American consumers to make payments electronically in real time. As such, it is not obvious what additional value a Fed-issued digital currency would provide over and above these options.”

Challenges for a Fed-issued Digital Currency

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❑A better possibility?

❑ Potential reduction in time and costs for wholesale financial transactions (interbank payments, securities settlements, cross-border transactions)

▪ “…it is possible at some point in the future that a limited central bank digital instrument that serves as a settlement asset for wholesale payment and settlement activity may hold some promise.”

Wholesale Digital Settlement Tokens

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❑ Something to keep an eye on

▪ “Even if cryptocurrencies prove to have a very limited role in the future, the technology behind them is likely to live on and offer improvements in the way we transfer and record more traditional financial assets.”

▪ “…perhaps the biggest potential benefit for payments, clearing, and settlement of distributed ledger technology may be resiliency.”

▪ “I remain optimistic that the financial sector will find valuable ways to employ distributed ledger technology in the area of payments, clearing, and settlement in coming years.”

Distributed Ledger Technology

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Questions?

Matt Davies, AAP, CTP, CPPAssistant Vice President

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

E-mail: matt.davies@dal.frb.org