Vincenzi American Society of Naturalist meeting 2014 at Asilomar, CA
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Transcript of Vincenzi American Society of Naturalist meeting 2014 at Asilomar, CA
Combining demography with quantitative genetics to infer the adaptive potential of
small populations
Simone VincenziEU Marie Curie FellowUniversity of California Santa Cruz, USPolytechnic of Milan, Italy
ASN meeting, Asilomar 2014
People
Giulio De Leo
Alain Crivelli
Marc Mangel
Dusan Jesensek
Slovenian field crew
Hans Skaug
Gianluigi Rossi
Small populations• Peculiarities– Bottleneck effect– Less evolutionary potential– Persistence dependent on year effects– High risker of extinction following extremes– Generalities are difficult
• Can the (potential) evolution of traits increase persistence of small populations in an increasing extreme world?
• Eco-evolutionary feedbacks?
Marble trout populations3 basins
30-1000 fish in each population
Isolated for 1000s of yrs
High among-population genetic differentiation
Extremely low within-population genetic variability
Baca Idrijca Soca
10 km
Marble trout and floods
Major flood
Medium flood
SS Spring AA Autumn
YEARSTREAM BASIN 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Huda AA AA AA SS
Zakojska AA AA SSBaca
Gorska AA AA
Lipovesck Soca AA AA AA AA AA SS AA
Zadlascica AA AA AA SS AA
Trebuscica AA AA AA AA SS SS
Studenc AA AA AA AA SS SSIdrijca
Idrijca AA AA SS SS
Gatsnick AA AA SS SS
Svenica AA AA AA SS SS
910
1
Role of growth variation• Evolution of growth rates may increase
persistence probability of marble trout1.Need to tease apart shared and individual
contribution to growth2.Life-history model• Growth• Other life-history traits• Occurrence of floods
3.Run simulations of scenarios with or without evolution of growth rates
Random-effect vB growth model
0( )( ) (1 )k t tL t L e ( , )
( , )
L f x u
k f x v
x = covariates or groupsu,v = individual random effects
L
k
0t
Heritability
Carlson SM, Seamons TR (2008) A review of quantitative genetic components of fitness in salmonids: implications for adaptation to future change. Evol Appl 1:222–238
Why
• Faster life histories, less BOFF• Faster life histories mainly after collapses• Realized length is only slightly different • Variation in egg production due to variation in
intrinsic growth is not crucial (given density-dependent growth and early survival)
≈