VIII Astana Economic ForumPanel session: Looking into the Future – The

World Economy of the 21st Century

Dr. Juha KaskinenDirector

FFRC22.05.2015

Megatrends and trends

• In future we will have more people, they live longer than before, they are more educated, more aware of global world and they mainly live in cities.

• Emphasis of the world economy sifts more and more to BRICS countries ja N 11’s (next eleven).

• Paradox: Scarcity of resources but more and more goods at the same time.

• Big data, digitalization, knowledge management challenges.

Megatrends and trends

• Changes of work and income distribution and their effects on well being and societies

• Sources of materials and energy are under development, production processes become more biotechnical but we are still dependent on fossil systems and structures for a long time (decades) and this slows the development of bio-economies.

• Technologies are creating more possibilities and the time frame from scientific discovery to technological application shortens.

1819 1859 1899 1939 1979 2009

Panic of 18371837–1843

Long depression1873–1879

Great depression1929–1939

1st and 2nd oil crisis1974–1980

Financial crisis2007–2009

1st Kondratieff1780–1830Steam engine

2nd Kondratieff1830–1880Railway, steel

3rd Kondratieff1880–1930Electrification, chemicals

4th Kondratieff1930–1970Automobiles, petrochem.

5th Kondratieff1970–2010ICT

6th Kondratieff2010–20xxEnvironment technology?Nano-/biotech.?Health care?

Modern economies fluctuate in a cycle of 40–60 yearsRolling 10-year yields of the Standard & Poors 500 equity index and the Kondratieff’s waves

Data source: Datastream. Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis.

Casti–Ilmola–Rouvinen–Wilenius 2011: Extreme Events.

Trajectories for a new cycle: exhaust of old innovation, excess financial capital, severe recession, social change…

26.1.2007 Marita Aho

5

• Technologies

• Business

• Creativity and innovativeness

• Networks • Services

• Design

• Multiculturalism

• Corporate responsibility

Needed skills

Risk management

VirtualityLife-cycle

management

New materials

Changing business models

• customerialization • networking

• specialization• product-service concepts

Demographic changesEthics

Security and safetyExperience seeking

ICT as central structure of production

Global change of work division

Sustainable development

Smart surroundings

Business environment

Some major challenges

• Automatization and robotization: good for business, bad for people?

• Corporate social and environmental responsibility• Technological development versus new risks and

threats• Climate change adaptation; hindering already

impossible?• Global power politics ETC.• Foresight is needed more than ever!

Many thanks for your attention!

• Juha Kaskinen (Dr. Soc. Sc.) Director• Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of

Economics FI-20014 University of Turku• Tel. +358 2 333 9528; +358 40 54 39 645• Email: juha.kaskinen@utu.fi• http://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc