February 2, 2016

THE BASICSTopic: Polling, Primaries and Politics!

http://thelantern.com/2012/10/leading-questions-bad-sampling-skew-some-political-polls/

Articles “Candidates craft N.H. end games after Iowa results tighten race” (2/2) (The Washington Post) “Another rough night for the pollsters in Iowa” (2/2) (Constitution Daily) “Presidential polls all over the map this year” (1/31) (The Columbus Dispatch) “6 Reasons to Be Wary of Iowa Polls” (1/29) (Time) “New polls show why Sanders’s strength may be a mirage – and Trump’s may not” (1/28) (The

Washington Post) “Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics” (1/27) (FiveThirtyEight)

Questions to Consider What is a primary election? What is a caucus? How do the results of the primary elections affect the decision as to who will be a candidate for

President? How does an endorsement from a major newspaper affect the outcome of the primary election?

What is the role of polling in the election process in the United States? Are we “addicted” to polls? If so, why?

What are the problems with getting polling information that is truly predictive of election results? Are changing poll results reflective of shifts of opinion or of respondents who have not made a definite decision? Do reliable polls reflect strategic thinking and math skills and reject “guessing”? Are undecided voters fairly represented in polls? Do polls tell us who will actually turn out to take part in caucuses and primaries? How do the Iowa results suggest that turnout matters? How do the Iowa results reflect the importance of younger voters? How did evangelical and rural voters make a difference in the Republican caucus?

How did organization on the ground in Iowa make a difference for both Democrats and Republicans? What was the impact of undecided voters? What was the impact of the “outsider” voters? What were the surprises in the Iowa caucus? Did any candidate “win” the Iowa caucus? Did anyone lose in the Iowa caucus? What do the results mean for Donald Trump? Hillary Clinton? Ted Cruz? Marco Rubio? Bernie Sanders?

What is the role of the media in the election process in the United States? Should the media provide information to help readers know more about the polling companies?

What is the role of financial contributions in the election process in the United States? What is the effect of voter turnout in the election process in the United States? Why is there an

outsized importance of voter turnout in Iowa? How long does the election process last? Do you agree or disagree with people who say that it is

too long? Why? What are the qualifications for being a candidate for President of the United States? What might make the 2016 election memorable? How does negative campaigning affect voter decisions? Are presidential debates or forums good learning opportunities for voters? Why or why not? Why have Iowa and New Hampshire been the first states to kick off the presidential elections?

Are the results more important than results in other states? Why or why not? For whom is the outcome of the Iowa caucus more important?

Does Iowa’s caucus system make predicting the winners particularly difficult? Why? Why might the primary elections in South Carolina on February 20 and 27, tell us more about who

will be the presidential candidates than the results in Iowa and New Hampshire? Which state or states would you pick to be most representative of the voters across the United

States? Are early decisions in Iowa and New Hampshire predictive of the final nominations? Of the

election in November 2016? Why or why not? Might the real take away from the Iowa results be who drops out of the presidential race? How might new technology replace older polling methods in predicting election results? PBS Newshour

THE EXTRASPre-teaching, Extensions & Further Reading

“What’s a caucus?” (NPR) “Why Iowa and New Hampshire go first” (Constitution Daily) “2016 Primary Schedule” (2016 Election Central) “Poll Dancing: Things Worth Knowing About Public Opinion” (Huffington Post)

Lesson Plans “What are the Primaries and Caucuses?” (PBS Newshour) “Primaries and Caucuses” (C-SPAN) “The Iowa Caucus and Beyond” (Bill of Rights Institute)

What’s the Connection? Constitutional

“Things That Are Not In the U.S. Constitution” (U.S. Constitution)

Oregon “2016 Oregon Presidential Election” (Election Projection)

Students “Can you ace this quiz on Iowa politics?” (The Hill)

Oregon State Social Science Standards8.17. Examine the development activities of political parties and interest groups and their affect on events, issues, and ideas. HS.27. Examine functions and process of United States government. HS.30. Analyze the roles and activities of political parties, interest groups and mass media and how they affect the beliefs and behaviors of local, state, and national constituencies. HS.33. Explain the role of government in various current events.HS.35. Examine the pluralistic realities of society (e.g., race, poverty, gender, and age), recognizing issues of equity, and evaluating need for change. HS.59. Demonstrate the skills and dispositions needed to be a critical consumer of information.HS.60. Analyze an event, issue, problem, or phenomenon form varied or opposing perspectives or points of view.

CCSS Anchor Standards2. Determine central ideas or themes of a text and analyze their development; summarize the key supporting details and ideas.4. Interpret words and phrases as they are used in a text, including determining technical, connotative, and figurative meanings, and analyze how specific word choices shape meaning or tone.6. Assess how point of view or purpose shapes the content and style of a text.7. Integrate and evaluate content presented in diverse media and formats, including visually and quantitatively, as well as in words. 8. Delineate and evaluate the argument and specific claims in a text, including the validity of the reasoning as well as the relevance and sufficiency of the evidence.

We the People Lesson ConnectionsMiddle School, Level 2

Unit 3, Lesson 16: How much power should be given to the executive and judicial branches?

Unit 4, Lesson 20: How did political parties develop? High School, Level 3

Unit 2, Lesson 11: What questions did the Framers consider in designing the three branches of the national government?

Unit 3, Lesson 16: What is the role of political parties in the constitutional system?