view the 2014 results
17
Renewable Energy Island Index and Marketplace Gianmarco Servetti and Lars Olson Miami, 7 October 2014
Transcript of view the 2014 results
Renewable Energy Island Index and Marketplace
Gianmarco Servetti and Lars Olson Miami, 7 October 2014
Time
RE
In
du
str
y M
atu
rity
Hydro, Biomass, Geothermal
Utility scale wind and solar
Distributed generation
New geothermal
Pilot projects
Pre – ‘RE
Craze’ Early Developing Maturing
Here
today…
National
Energy
Policies
Maturing
regulation
(3rd party
regimes)
Policy and regulation are catching
up with technology and economics
2
Dominica
Montserrat
Belize
Aruba
Martinique
CuraҫaoGuadeloupe
Jamaica
St. Vincent & the Grenadines
Barbados
Cayman Islands
Nevis
Bonaire
Dominican Republic
Bermuda
St. Kitts
Anguilla
U.S. Virgin Islands
Grenada
St. Lucia
Trinidad & Tobago
Haiti
Puerto Rico
Guyana
Turks and Caicos Islands
Antigua & Barbuda
Bahamas
British Virgin Islands3
Enabling Environment
Existing Generation
Planned Generation
Overall: familiar group at top—but action
to keep positions, and eager runners-up
1
2
3
Dominica
Montserrat
Belize
4
1. Dominica Enabling Environment: sound regulatory framework (new
T&D licenses), revised energy policy ready to be passed
Existing Generation: 6.3MW hydro, ~0.7MW solar PV
Planned Generation: production well drilling complete for
10MW domestic generation; +100MW potential export
Enabling Environment: strong government leadership on
geothermal, although no comprehensive RE framework
Existing Generation: none yet
Planned Generation: potential for 100% geothermal supply; 2 production wells proven at 1.5MW each; third being drilled
2. Montserrat
5
3. Belize Enabling Environment: finalizing RE strategy; running successful tender
Existing Generation: over 50MW hydro, 13MW bagasse
Planned Generation: 15MW tender; bids for biomass, wind, and solar PV
Enabling Environment: new DG framework; tradition of RE IPPs
Existing Generation: 30MW wind, 1MW solar PV
Planned Generation: 3.5MW PV under construction (2015);
26.4MW wind planned (2016); 2-4MW syngas waste plant planned
4. Aruba
0 1 2 3 4 5
GuadeloupeMartinique
ArubaCuraҫao
BarbadosJamaica
Cayman IslandsSt. Vincent & the…
BermudaBelize
DominicaNevis
St. KittsAnguilla
Dominican RepublicSt. LuciaGrenada
Trinidad & TobagoAntigua & Barbuda
Puerto RicoTurks and Caicos Islands
BonaireGuyana
MontserratHaiti
British Virgin IslandsBahamas
Indicator Score(0 to 5)
Enabling Environment for RE Investments
6
Enabling environment: progress for DG, more expected for utility scale generation
Distributed Generation
Utility Scale Generation
7
Barbados: RE
Rider made
permanent and
expanded from
7MW to 9MW
T & T: new DG
interconnection
framework
Curaçao: switch
to net billing from
net metering
St. Kitts & Nevis: DG
interconnection
program with financing
Distributed generation frameworks are
improving and expanding
8
Barbados: new
electricity sector
law (ELPA)
passed; solar PV
tender issued
Belize: launched
15MW RE tender fall
2013; selecting
preferred bidders
Progress in competitively procuring
utility scale power—with more to come
St. Lucia and Grenada:
ECERA work under way
(tariff structure for RE, net
billing, model PPAs,
procurement, financing)
Jamaica: RE tender
advanced from
award to signed
PPAs (78MW)
0 1 2 3 4 5
BelizeBonaire
HaitiDominica
St. Vincent & the…Dominican Republic
GuadeloupeCuraҫao
ArubaNevis
JamaicaMartinique
British Virgin IslandsBermuda
Puerto RicoAnguillaGuyanaSt. Kitts
BarbadosGrenada
Turks and Caicos IslandsBahamas
Cayman IslandsAntigua & Barbuda
St. LuciaTrinidad & Tobago
Montserrat
Indicator Score(0 to 5)
Existing RE Generation
Production Utility-scale projects Distributed Generation
9
Existing generation: stable situation overall, but DG increasing
Share of RE generation
Number of utility scale projects
Number of DG projects
10
Barbados:
From 2MW in
2013 to over
5.5MW in 2014
(~160MW peak)
Guadeloupe:
67MW solar PV
(~260MW peak)
Curaçao:
3.5MW solar PV
(~105MW peak)
Puerto Rico: 48MW
solar PV, up from
30MW in 2013
(~3,200MW peak)
Reported DG doubled since last year
Martinique:
62MW solar PV
(~250MW peak)
0 1 2 3 4 5
MontserratDominica
ArubaMartinique
CuraҫaoGuyana
BelizeBahamas
Dominican RepublicNevis
JamaicaCayman Islands
AnguillaBarbadosGrenadaSt. Lucia
St. Vincent & the…GuadeloupePuerto Rico
BermudaAntigua & BarbudaTrinidad & Tobago
St. KittsHaiti
BonaireBritish Virgin Islands
Turks and Caicos…
Indicator Score(0 to 5)
Planned RE Generation
Production Utility-scale projects Distributed Generation11
Planned generation: geothermal still leads—and showing concrete progress
Share of RE generation
Number of utility scale projects
Number of DG projects
12
Beyond the ranking: a US$3 billion, 900MW market between now and 2020*
Sources: • Utilities
• Ministries
• Castalia’s past work, other publically available sources
Searchable by: • Country
• Technology type
• Status
Country Description
Number of
Projects
Technology
Type Scale Status
Size
(kW)
Est.
Generation
(MWh)*
(MWh/yr)
Capacity
factor
(reporte
d)
Capacity
factor
(estimat
ed)
CAPEX in
USD mln
(estimated) StartOp
Anguilla Viceroy Hotels Anguilla (stand-alone)1 Solar PV Distributed Planned 1,000 1,577 18% 3.5 2015
Anguilla W2E project 1 Waste-to-EnergyUtility/IPP Planned 4,000 22,776 65% 34.0 Idea/early development stage
Anguilla 1MW Solar plant 1 Solar PV Utility/IPP Planned 1,000 1,577 18% 3.5 unlikely to go forward/stalled
Anguilla CuisinArt Golf Resort & Spa 1 Solar PV Distributed Existing 1,000 1,500 17% 3.5
Antigua & BarbudaDistributed solar 33 Solar PV Distributed Existing 240 438 18% 0.8
Aruba Airport Solar Park 1 Solar PV Utility/IPP Planned 3,500 6,508 21% 12.3 2014
Aruba WEB and Trading Free Zone W2E Plant syngas extension Phase I1 Waste-to-EnergyUtility/IPP Planned 2,000 11,388 65% 17.0 2014
Aruba Hydrostor storage project 1 Storage Utility/IPP Planned 1,000 1,577 18% 3.5 2014
Aruba Urirama Vestas (North Coast) 1 Wind Utility/IPP Planned 26,400 64,754 28% 66.0 2016
Aruba WEB and Trading Free Zone W2E Plant syngas extension Phase II1 Waste-to-EnergyUtility/IPP Planned 5,000 28,470 65% 42.5 Idea/early development stage
Aruba Vader Piet 1 Wind Utility/IPP Existing 30,000 135,525 52% 75.0
Aruba Distributed Solar 100 Solar PV Distributed Existing 1,000 1,577 18% 3.5
Aruba Balashi Brewery 1 Solar PV Distributed Existing 100 158 18% 0.4
Bahamas Stellar Energy waste-to-energy Plant (New Providence)1 Waste-to-EnergyUtility/IPP Planned 20,000 157,680 90% 170.0 2015
* many projects tracked but not included
in total; only those with firm year
Jamaica Solar PV: 20MW
Content Village (PPA
signed)
Wind: 34MW Munro
(PPA signed); 24MW
Rose Hill (PPA
signed)
Dominican Republic Wind: 100MW Los Guzmancitos (under
construction)
Bagasse: 25MW San Pedro (under construction)
Solar PV: 25MW Monte Plata (under construction)
~100MW coming up in each of several
large markets—all with RE track record
13
Dominica – Guadeloupe –
Martinique (pending interconnection)
Geothermal: 100MW export from Dominica
Tens of MW coming up in top 5 ‘Enabling
Environments’
14
Aruba (3rd) Solar PV: 3.5MW
airport (under
construction)
Wind: 26.4MW
Urirama (PPA
signed)
Waste: 2MW syngas
(under construction)
Curaçao (4th) Solar PV: 10MW DG
planned
Wind: 15MW
planned (permitting)
Barbados (5th) Solar PV: 8MW St.
Lucy (REOI issued)
Landfill gas:
1.5MW (exp. 2016)
Biomass/W2E: 10-
30MW possible
Martinique
(1st/tie) Biomass:
34MW Albioma
Galion 2 (PPA
under
evaluation)
St. Thomas Solar PV: 4.2MW Donoe
(under construction); 6MW
bid (under evaluation)
Grenada Wind: 2MW
Carriacou
(tender closes
Oct 2014)
A lively market also for smaller countries
with ~40MW planned (US$200M)
15
St. Croix Solar PV: 4MW Spanish
Town (under construction);
3MW (bid under evaluation)
Biomass: 7MW (under
construction)
St. Lucia Solar PV: 3MW
(RFP planned)
16
Intermittents are 2/3 of planned generation, and the great majority of projects
Technology # projects
Solar PV 41
Wind 14
Biomass 5
Geothermal 3
Waste 3
Solar PV, 157MW,
US$547M
Wind, 466MW,
US$1,143M
Biomass, 116MW,
US$444M
Geothermal114MW,
US$570M
Waste-to-Energy, 24MW
US$200M
Wellington Level 2, 88 The Terrace
PO Box 10-225
Wellington
New Zealand
Sydney 36 -38 Young Street
Sydney, NSW 2000
Australia
Washington 1747 Pennsylvania Ave NW
Suite 1200
Washington DC
20006, USA
New York 200 Park Avenue
Suite 1744
New York, NY
10166, USA
Bogotá Carrera 7 No. 99-53
Torre 1, Oficina 1424
Bogotá
Colombia
Paris 7 Rue Claude Chahu
75116 Paris
France
Gianmarco Servetti
Practice Leader, RE and EE
Lars Olson
Senior Analyst
