View on the future of the EV industry - International ... · PDF fileView on the future of the...
Transcript of View on the future of the EV industry - International ... · PDF fileView on the future of the...
View on the future of the EV industry
Bert Witkamp Clean Energy Ministerial, Electric Vehicle Initiative , May 4th, 2015
Why switch to electric drive?
Societal drive and pressure (MEGATRENDS!): political leaders come up with long term policies and decisions taken:
To combat climate change
To clean up our air and to reduce noise levels in order to improve our health
To become (economically and politically) independant from fossil fuel imports
For economic reasons when electric drive becomes simply more economically for consumers than other alternatives
Lower total cost of ownership
Lower upfront cost, higher second hand value
Switch from vehicle ownership to transportation use model
Consumers enjoy electric drive Better driving experience
Small city vehicles only available in electric drive versions
Access to zero emission / low noise zones in cities
House – car integrated energy system and lower energy cost
Non-financial motivators and social responsability 2
EV development 2008 – 2014: market
(Very) high growth rate (In 2014: 43% all EV’s sold, globally)
2014 vs 2013: Europe: +50%, China: + 220%, US: +22%
Countries can have “as many EV’s on the road as they want”
Range of EV models on market is widening but still limited
Tesla game changer ?!
EV market remains few model – few country market, covering small % of market in customer needs and geographically
EV other than passenger cars are almost not available
EV’s get the high(est) customer satisfaction scores @ most OEM’s
EV’s remain expensive and need (mostly) incentives and subsidies
But (battery) cost is coming down rapidly
EV charging infrasturucture slowly comes in places but no clear business models yet
Range anxiety anxiety still an issue
EV’s 300 – 500+ km ranges announced for 2016 – 2018 (mid-class – luxury)
3
New FEV’s being announced (or rumoured) PHEV becoming basic offering?
300+ km range (EPA): 2016 – 2018, $ 30 – 40k
Tesla Model III
GM Chevrolet Bolt
Ford
Audi
Nissan (Leaf)
BMW (i3)
VW e-Golf
FEV luxury cars (“Tesla fighters”)
Audi (R8 e-tron, 2016, 450 km, 92 kWh; Q6 e-SUV)
BMW i5
Jaguar (SUV)
Landrover
Porsche 717
Volkswagen (500 km range by 2020)
4
Policymakers and politicians
Awareness of the CÙRRENT state of EV technology is in general low
Awareness of and belief in the cost reduction potential of EV technology in the next decade is probably even lower
Politians and policymaker (like most human beings) will act and champion EV development and deployment if and when they are convinced of value of doing so AND a good chance of success!
EV Technology:
1. The postive contribution in terms of Climate Change, Air Quality, Reduction of fossil fuel import and energy efficiency is evident
2. Consumers familiar withthe technology prefer it largely over conventional technology
3. EV Technology is probably on its way to become the lowest cost vehicle technology within the next decade BUT this needs to be substantiated and communicated!!
5
Electric vehicles are intrinsically the lowest cost technology option
Already today, EV’s are less expensive than ICE with the exception of the battery / fuel cell
Total cost of ownership in some cases already lower today
It’s (almost) all about the battery cost!
Around 2025: EV’s likely to be the lowest cost and best appreciated cars
Batteries get rapidly lower in cost AND less battery is needed / km
Also: renewable energy & EV’s = synergy
The mass scale switch to electric drive may start within a decade
All passenger cars, buses, vans & light trucks
In transition phase hybrid versions as well
In 2030 all cars sold are electric?
At a certain moment, people will not buy old technology anymore
6
Battery cost decrease faster than predicted
7
Ref: Bjorn Nykvist and Mans Nilsson, 2015
85 cost estimates from peer reviewed literature, most cited grey literature and OEM’s
A possible scenario starting after 2020
Very-low cost Light Electric Vehicles: perfect for city driving,
Electric cars become the lowest cost car
Small EV model 100 – 200 km range
Mid class EV models 300 – 500 km range
High end and luxury EV models, > 500 km range
Charging (low power?) goes wireless and automatic
Fast charging: mainly for commercial vehicles & users; 5-10% of charging for consumers
Very large non-OEM’s enter EV market?
Cars become autonomous: best fit for electric cars!
Beyond cars: electric buses, light trucks, vans, autonomous & self-charging long range trucks,..
11
Switch to electric is less far fetched than we think?
12
Ian Robertson, Board member & Chief Marketing BMW:
Who is going to manufacture the EV’s of the future?
OEM’s
Tesla (like start ups)
Chinese companies like BYD, Geely, Foxconn,…
Google?
Apple?
Siemens,….?
Combinations of any of these?
Manufacturing of EV’s in the future will probably be much more “democratic”: very easy, low cost, small scale and open for many companies, industries and countries wanting to build up an automotive industry!
Who is going to supply the electricity? 13
Crossing the EV Valley of Death
We can and need to provide credible and clear information on the EV use and cost potential to our politians, policymakers, industries and citizens!
The next 5 years will be determining in whether the still fragile and vulnerable EV can reach its full potential quickly!
Your opinions and ideas?
14
ICE technology: master piece of engineering
16
Requires highly skilled labour, expensive machinery and factories
Which horse (power) are we betting on?
PAGE 19 4-6-
2015
Source: TU Eindhoven, The Netherlands
3x more kW/kg
40x more kW/liter
4x more efficient
ZERO emission
LOW noise
VERY low maintenance
1 moving part
EV’s on the road (M1 cars, models > 2007) sustained 2014 growth = 100 % EV in 2025
20
2010 – 2014:
in 4 years: 200 x more
EV’s on the road !
Full electric vehicles Europe 2010 – 2014
21
Phase 1:
2008 – 2012: Think & Mitsibushi i-Miev
2011- 2012: Nissan LEAF, Boloré Bleucar,
Renault Fluence, Smart for Two
Phase 2: GAME CHANGERS:
2013-2014: Tesla Model S, Nissan LEAF (2),
BMW i3, Renault Zoe,….
2010 Top 5 total: 546 = 80%Think 243
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Citroën C-Zero 100
Peugeot iOn
Smart For Two 97
Tesla Roadster 74
Mini Electric 50
2012 Top 5 total: 15.573 = 96% Mitsubishi I-Miev
Citroën C-Zero 6583
Peugeot iOn
Nissan Leaf 4883
Bolloré Bluecar 1950
Renault Fluence 1211
Smart For Two 946
2014 Top 5 total: 45.142 = 83%Nissan Leaf 14380
Renault Zoë 10905
Tesla Model S 9261
VW e-Up! 5406
BMW i3 (BEV est.) 5190
EV: market of few models & segments
22
FEV
4 models > 10,000
10 models > 1,000
PHEV / REEV
2 models > 10,000
6 models > 1,000
EV sales concentrated in few countries top 5: 83%, top 12: 97%
23
Norway has imported 3,500 – 4,500 second hand EV’s (mainly Nissan LEAF)
A country can have as many
EV’s on the road as it wants:
-people want them!
Does not need to cost
Taxpayers
If “polluter-pays” principle
Is applied
Do EV drivers like their cars? EV are becoming cars of choice!
Rapid accelaration and smooth drive.
Highest customer satisfaction reported for Tesla, Nissan Leaf, Opel Ampera, Chevy Volt,….neighbours help OEM’s to sell the cars…
Saves money in fuel and maintenance
Every morning full “tank”, charge at work, no need anymore to go to smelly, unhealthy gasstations ( and spending several
weeks of your life there….)
Help to get the air (of your city) clean!
Low noise and no emissions in city traffic and traffic jams
Help to fight climate change
Often use / produce renewable energy to fill up!
24