VIETNAM’S REAL ESTATE · At CT5 Tan Trieu At Starcity 2013 - 2014 At Dang Xa At Hoa Binh Green...
Transcript of VIETNAM’S REAL ESTATE · At CT5 Tan Trieu At Starcity 2013 - 2014 At Dang Xa At Hoa Binh Green...
Presented by: Marc Townsend, Managing Director, CBRE Vietnam
September 11, 2014
VIETNAM’S REAL ESTATE 20 YEARS LOOKING BACK – 2 YEARS LOOKING FORWARD
2 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
Past and present…
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET
Source: Google.
HC
MC
Ha
no
i
3 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
Progress of Metro Line No. 1
INFRASTRUCTURE - HCMC
Section of Metro Line #1 from Thai Van Lung Str. to Ton Duc Thang Str. 1
1
4 5
Section on Nguyen Huu Canh Str., near Van Thanh
Expected completion date: January 23, 2017
2
2
3
Sections in District 2
4 5
3 Section on Dien Bien Phu Str., near Saigon Bridge
4 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
Thu Thiem New Urban Area
INFRASTRUCTURE – HCMC
Thu Thiem in the past
Thu Thiem today (photo taken in Jul 2014)
5 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
INFRASTRUCTURE – HCMC Ports in HCMC replaced by mixed-use projects
Saigon New Port
Relocated to Cat Lai Port (2008)
and relocating to Cai Mep Port
Operation stop: May 2015
Converting to mixed-use projects
Partnered with Vingroup
1
Khanh Hoi - Nha Rong Port
To be converted in Q1 2016.
Partnered with Vingroup
2
Ba Son Shipyard
Waiting for approval on 1/500 plan
Ba Son site will be auctioned.
3
1
2
3
Taken on September 2014. 1
6 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
HANOI CBD
OLD HA
DONG BUS
STATION
Progress of Metro Line No. 2
INFRASTRUCTURE - HANOI
Elevated Ring Road (Under planning)
Major Artery (Completed)
Ring Road (Completed)
Elevated Ring Road (Completed)
UMRT Line 2 (Under Construction)
Gia
i Ph
on
g R
d.
1
4
2
4
3
3
5
5
Section on Dong Da Lake
Section on Nguyen Trai
street, intersect RR #3
Section on Nguyen Trai
street, near Royal City Section on Nguyen Trai street, Ha Dong District.
Expected completion date: September 2015
2 1
THANH XUAN
DONG DA
7 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
INFRASTRUCTURE - HANOI More bridges coming online
3
Thanh Tri Bridge
Vinh Tuy Bridge
Chuong Duong Bridge
Nhat Tan Bridge
Thang Long Bridge Dong Tru Bridge
Exp. comp. Oct 2014
Exp. comp. Oct 2014
Nhat Tan Bridge (8.9 km)
Dong Tru Bridge (1.1km)
HA DONG HOANG MAI
TU LIEM
TAY HO
CAU GIAY
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET MARKET SITUATION UPDATE
9 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
Ho Chi Minh
City
Hanoi
In the past…
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
1999 - 2003
Emerging market
Land plots preferred
2004 - 2006
Land plots banned
Land compensation increased
A shift to Condominiums
2007 - 2008
Peak property market and
prosperous economy
Speculators dominated the market
Large unit sizes
Plenty of cash
Booming property market
2009 - 2010
2009: Hard hit by global and
local economic uncertainties
Property market slowdown
Speculators decreasing
2011 - 2012
Since 2011: contracting
economy - lack of cash
Smaller unit sizes preferred
because of limited budget
Stagnant period
2013 onward
10 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
More calm and classified buyers
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
2007
Buyers at The Vista
At Green Valley
At Sky Garden
At ParcSpring
2014
At Vista Verde
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More calm and classified buyers
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
2009 -
2010
Buyers at Le Van Luong Residentials
At Thang Long No. 1
At CT5 Tan Trieu
At Starcity
2013 -
2014
At Hoa Binh Green City At Dang Xa
Hanoi
12 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
Unit Type - Past and Present
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
(*): First tier: Luxury and high-end products; Second tier: Mid-end and affordable products
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2014.
Condominium Unit Type Change, HCMC
9%
7%
12%
3%
63%
59%
45%
35%
27%
27%
28%
45%
1%
7%
14%
16%
After 2012
Before 2012
After 2012
Before 2012
Se
co
nd
tie
rF
irst tier
1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR+
Proportion of 1BR
and 2BR types
increased
significantly
13 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
Unit Size – Past and Present
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
(*): First tier: Luxury and high-end products; Second tier: Mid-end and affordable products
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2014.
48 sm
50 sm
55 sm
65 sm
75 sm
91 sm
90 sm
110 sm
90 sm
110 sm
110 sm
125 sm
150 sm
250 sm
250 sm
300 sm
After 2012
Before 2012
After 2012
Before 2012
Se
co
nd
tie
rF
irst tier
1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR+
Condominium Unit Size Change, HCMC
Unit sizes reduced
notably in the Luxury
and High-end
segments
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Total Supply – Shift to Affordable Segment
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
(*): Accumulative launches since 1999, including both completion and under construction units, sold and unsold units.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2014.
Before 2010 After 2010
30.726%
31.158%
36.989%
1.126%
48.108%
24.485%
26.601%
.806%
Market changes to adapt…..
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1
Luxury
High-end
Mid-end
Affordable
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CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE Loans from banks
16 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
Sales Transactions Increased Steadily
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2014.
Affordable segment made up the majority but High-end has recently showed great
improvements since Q4 2013.
Mid-end sales sharply in Q2 2014 increase due to:
More launches with lower prices
Aggressive sales strategies at existing projects.
Sold Units by Year and by Segment
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2012
2013
2014
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
04008001,2001,6002,0002,4002,8003,200 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 3,200
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
20
12
20
13
20
14
HCMC HANOI
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Prices Become More Competitive, So Are Payment Terms
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2014.
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Se
co
nd
ary
askin
g p
rice
(U
S$
psm
)
High-end Mid-end Affordable
HCMC HANOI
Condominiums for Sale, Secondary Asking Price, US$ psm
18 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
HCMC Real Demand Outstrips Supply
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
7.8 mil. ppl in HCMC
3.1 mil. ppl in
working age* 3.0 mil. ppl
employed
13,060
condos
<US$47k/unit
300,000** ppl
need houses
DEMAND SUPPLY (*) GSO: 4.1 mil. people in working age above 15 years old.
CBRE: assumed 3.1 mil. people in working age above 18 years old
(**) It is assumed that 10% of employed people need houses,
including 40,000 new married couples per year
Source: Vietnamese General Statistics Office and CBRE Vietnam’s assumptions, Q2 2014.
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FLC Garden City
• Nam Tu Liem District
• 1,100 units
• Expected price: US$563 psm
Developer: FLC Group
Scale and localisation (September – December 2014)
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE - FUTURE SUPPLY
Docklands Saigon
• District 7
• 365 units
• Expected price: N/A
• Developer: Paujar
Ehome 6
• District 9
• 500 units
• Expected price: US$755 psm
• Developer: Nam Long
Lucky Dragon • District 6
• 356 units
• Price: US$1,132 - $1,368 psm
• Developer: Novaland
Sunview Town - Sapphire
• District 9
• 330 units
• Expected price: US$684 psm
• Developer: Dat Xanh Group
HCMC HANOI
FLC Complex • Cau Giay Dist.
• 38 stories
• Expected price:
US$981 psm
• Developer: FLC Group
Golden Silk (To be re-started)
• Hoang Mai District
• No. of units: N/A
• Expected price: N/A
• Developer: Vinaconex 2 Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2014.
Vista Verde • District 2
• 300 units (Phase 1)
• Official launch on Sep. 13
• Prices: US$1,400-$1,600 psm
• Developer: JV CapitaLand, Thien Duc
20 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
OFFICE RENTAL GROWTH
Y-o-Y CHANGE IN PRIME RENT
THE AMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC EMEA
+3.3% +2.9% -0.1% TOP 5 GROWTH MARKETS
19.40%
12.50%11.00%
10.30% 10.20%
Seattle Subburban
San Francisco
Downtown
San Francisco
Peninsula
Houston Suburban
Houston Downtown
15.80%
13.50%
7.70% 7.30%
5.70%
Dublin LondonWest End
Lille Gothenburg Rotterdam
60.10%
16.70%
13.40%
9.30%7.90%
Jarkarta* Kuala Lumpur
Seoul Yeouido
Manila Ho Chi Minh City
Prime rent definition: average asking rent at top
three office buildings in the market. HCMC top three
buildings include Saigon Tower, Kumho Asiana Plaza
and Sunwah Tower
EMEA: Europe, Middle East and Africa
*Leases in Jakarta are typically written in U.S. dollars,
but paid in rupiah, which means the occupancy cost
increase is greatly affected by currency depreciation in
Indonesia.
Source: CBRE Global, Q1 2014.
Kumho Asiana Plaza, HCMC Petronas Towers, Kuala Lumpur Indonesian Stock
Exchange, Jakarta
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Floors available for sale/long term lease - HCMC
OFFICE
Address: 561A Dien Bien Phu St, Ward 25, Binh Thanh Dist.
GFA: 37,434 sm
Typical floor plate: 1,592 sm
Expected completion date: Q1 2015
Average asking price: US$1,500/sm/term
Term: until 2058
Sub-lease right: yes SSG TOWER
SAIGON AIRPORT PLAZA
Address: 1 Bach Dang, Ward 2, Tan Binh District.
GFA: 18,820 sm
Typical floor plate: 722 sm
Completion: Q2 2013
Average asking price: US$1,750/sm/term
Term: until 2059
Sub-lease right: yes
PRINCE RESIDENCE
Address: 17-21 Nguyen Van Troi, Ward 12, Phu Nhuan Dist.
GFA: 5,543 sm
Typical floor plate: 1,660 sm
Expected completion date: Q3 2015
Average asking price: US$2,650/sm/term
Term: until 2064
Sub-lease right: yes
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2014.
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Floors available for sale/long term lease - Hanoi
OFFICE
Address: 45A Tran Thai Tong Street, Cau Giay Dist.
GFA: 61,400 sm
NLA: 38,957 sm
Height: 25 floors
Completion: Q3 2013
Average asking price: US$1,800/sm/50 years
PVI Tower
ICON4 Tower
Address: 243A La Thanh Str, Dong Da Dist.
GFA: 52,656 sm
Typical floor plate: 1,200 sm
Height: 25 floors
Completion: Q2 2012
Average asking price: US$1,300/sm/50 years
Eurowindow Multicomplex
Address: 27 Tran Duy Hung, Cau Giay Dist.
GFA: 10,000 sm
Floor plate: 1,500 sm
Height: 25 floors
Expected completion date: Q3 2013
Average asking price: US$1,700/sm/50 years
23 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
Future supply
OFFICE
HCMC
Vietcombank Tower
5 Melinh Square, D1
GFA: 77,000 sm
Expected completion:
Q4/2014
Viettel Office & Trade
Center
285 CMT8, D10
GFA: 65,971 sm
Estimated completion:
Q1/2015
Lim Tower 2
158 Vo Van Tan, D3
GFA: 20,467 sm
Estimated completion:
Q1/2015
SSG Tower
561A Dien Bien Phu St, Ward
25, Binh Thanh.
GFA: 37,434 sm
Estimated completion: Q3/2015
Lotte Center Hanoi
Lieu Giai Street, Ba Dinh Dist
GFA: 65,000 sm
Completion on Sep 2014
Handico Tower
Me Tri NUA, Tu Liem Dist.
GFA: 29,040 sm
Expected completion: 2014
147 Hoang Quoc Viet
147 Hoang Quoc Viet, Cau
Giay Dist.
GFA: 39,419 sm
Estimated completion: 2014
Ho Guom Plaza
Mo Lao NUA, Ha Dong Dist.
GFA: 12,000 sm
Estimated completion: 2014
HANOI
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2014.
24 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
New retailer entries & expansions
RETAIL
New retailer entry
Robins department store
Expansion
• Opened 20th store in Q2
2014
• 1st store in Hanoi in July
2014
• 3 restaurants opened in
HCMC in 2014.
• Opened 8th store in
HCMC and to open 1st
store in Hanoi in Q3
2014.
• 1st shopping center in
Hanoi in March 2014
• 2nd shopping center in
Hanoi in September
2014
• To open 2nd mall in Binh
Duong in Q4 2014.
• 1st mall in Hanoi in 2015
• 1st store in Hanoi, 10,000 sqm in Vincom Megamall Royal City,
opened in March 2014
• 2nd store in HCMC, 12,000 sqm in The Crescent Mall, expected to
open in Nov 2014.
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HCMC and Hanoi are top targets to open stores in 2014
RETAIL
Source: CBRE Survey – How Active are Retailers in Asia Pacific 2014?, Q2 2014.
Top 10 CITIES where retailers intend to open stores in 2014
26 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
Future supplies with GFA greater than 20,000 sm
RETAIL
SC VivoCity
• District 7
• GFA: 72,000 sm
• Superstructure U/C. Leasing underway.
• To open in 2014
Sunrise City Phase 2
• District 7
• GFA: 25,000 sm
• Superstructure U/C.
• To open in 2015
SSG Tower
• District 3
• GFA: 20,500 sm
• Superstructure U/C.
• To open in 2015
HCMC HANOI
Mo Market
• Hai Ba Trung District
• GFA: 24,300 sm
• Fitting out.
• To open in 2014.
Ho Guom Plaza
• Ha Dong District
• GFA: 23,400 sm
• Completed. Leasing.
• To open in 2014.
Lotte Hanoi Center
• Ba Dinh
• GFA: 20,000 sm
• Completed. Leasing.
• Opened in Sep 2014.
Ciputra Mall Hanoi
• Tay Ho
• GFA: 130,000 sm
• Under planning.
• To open in 2015
Aeon Mall
• Long Bien district
• GFA: 108,000 sm
• Under construction.
• To open in 2015
Vincom Nguyen
Chi Thanh
• Dong Da
• GFA: 65,400 sm
• Under construction.
• To open in 2015
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2014.
27 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
Ho Chi Minh
City
Hanoi
HOTEL Big Investment are Moving into the Hospitality Sector
• Acquired project from Ha Do Group
Source: Compiled from various sources, Q2 2014.
POSITION INVESTORS /
DEVELOPERS COMPONENTS VALUE
Sapa Sun Group
• Fansipan cable car
• Hotel
• Entertainment complex
$206 mil.
Hanoi Thanh Hoa
Construction Corp. * • 4-star Hotel -
Quang
Ninh
Nakheel
Sovico Holding • Urban- tourism complex $550 mil.
VinGroup • Resort complex $45 mil.
ISC Corporation
Tuan Chau
• Casino
• Recreation complex $7,000 mil.
Hai Phong VLC • 200-room hotel/Accor
• 24 serviced apartments -
Thanh Hoa FLC Group • 18-hole golf course,
• Resort complex $257.5 mil.
Phu Yen Vung Ro Petroleum • Resort complex $2,500 mil
Phu Quoc
VinGroup • 27-hole golf course
• Resort complex $796 mil.
CEO Group • Resort complex
• 406-room Hotel (Novotel) $210.7 mil.
BIM Group • Resort complex
• 400-room Hotel (Crowne Plaza) $70.2 mil
28 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
INVESTMENT TRENDS Foreign to Local
IFC helps build more homes for mid-
income earners in Vietnam
Source: Compiled from various newspapers.
29 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
Local to Local
INVESTMENT TRENDS
Source: CBRE Vietnam., Q2 2014.
27 TRUONG CHINH
8X THAI AN
GALAXY 9 ICON 56 LEXINGTON
RESIDENCE
GREEN CITY
• Scale: 608 condos
• Location: HCMC
• Seller: Kim Tam Hai
• Scale: 196 condos
• Location: HCMC
• Seller: Dat Lanh
• Scale: 7.5 ha
• Location: HCMC
• Seller: N/A
• Scale: 1,334 condos
• Location: HCMC
• Seller: Hoa Binh
• Scale: 312 condos
• Location: HCMC
• Seller: Hoa Binh
• Scale: 627 condos
• Location: HCMC
• Seller: Hoa Binh
WATER GARDEN SUNVIEW TOWN
• Scale: 2.1 ha
• Location: HCMC
• Seller: PPI
• Scale: ~1,200 condos
• Location: HCMC
• Seller: Savico Agent now becomes Developer
30 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
73% 27%
Foreign Investor with good track-record in Vietnam
New foreign investors
VIETNAM INVESTMENT Continued pockets of interest from overseas investors
Source: RCA, retrieved July 1, 2014.
37%
63%
Local-Local Foreign Involvement
Investment deals, Vietnam, 2013-1H 2014
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK
32 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
The Good…..
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET
Macro-economic and Infrastructure
Macro-economic statistics and fundamentals, all
appear to be in good shape.
Infrastructure continues to amaze.
SOE equitisation is moving ahead, slowly.
Residential
Affordable housing is still grabbing the
headlines.
Other developers are dusting off their old
Residential and Township plans.
More cranes to be seen on both sides of Hanoi
Highway (HCMC) and the Red River (Hanoi).
As pricing is coming down, people can move
up to the next quality bracket.
The mid- to high-end markets will receive more
end-users while the high-end segment will see
buy-to-let investors coming back.
33 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
The Good…..
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET
Office
Very few new entrants to the Vietnam market;
however, there are a noticeable number of up-
graders and re-inforcers.
Under revised Real Estate Law, strata-title
opportunities will open up more transactions.
However, this will require strong DMCs (shared
responsibilities amongst the owners).
The evolution of the modern workplace
34 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
The World is Changing.
CBRE | Workplace Strategy 34
35 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
CONVENTIONAL MORE OPEN ACTIVITY BASED
• Traditional office layout
• Everyone has an assigned desk
• OUR PAST
• Offices on the interior
• More open / collaborative space
• WHERE WE ARE CURRENTLY
• Various settings for various work
• People share spaces
• A vision of the future…
SPACES ARE CHANGING
36 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
EVOLUTION OF THE MODERN WORKPLACE
EVOLUTION
Maximize the opportunities for
INFORMATION EXCHANGE
37 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
from PRESENCE to PERFORMANCE
EVOLUTION OF THE MODERN WORKPLACE
WORKPLACE EVOLUTION
55% of
working time 45% of working time
PEOPLE PEOPLE
SPACE TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY
38 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
THE CHANGING WORLD OF WORK
* CBRE WPS Lunch and Learn White Paper series – Why one Size Doesn’t Fit All
39 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
The result : improving our efficiency
Reduction in overall space
Right size in the right location
Greater variety of spaces types to work in
More collaborative space
More AV / telepresence
Less on site storage
… and managing our costs
40 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
The Good…..
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET
Investment
Funds continue to dispose of their assets but also be
interested in acquiring well-priced assets.
Local and foreign buyers are STILL looking but not finding
well-priced assets.
Still a Tale of Two Cities.
Hospitality
Edward Snowden to go on holiday in Phu Quoc as
the Russians keep coming.
Coastal cities would be interesting but again, can
developments come at the right price?
Retail
Retail market has more confidence and supply
Foreign retail developers with modern, tried and tested
international concepts will create even more competition for
struggling local retail formats
International retailers will pay more attention as Vietnam will
open completely its market in January 2015 under WTO
obligations.
41 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
…..and the bad.
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET
TPP will not happen until 2015 at the
earliest. The EU FTA will happen
first.
Other Asia Pacific countries will put
their own relationship with China
before supporting Vietnam in the East
Sea (including the US).
“Bitten off more than you can chew?”
– perhaps the continued glut of office
space in Hanoi and the unfinished
buildings in HCMC.
No real investment urgency in the
market.
Prime-location projects stay still or
convert into other land-use purpose.
42 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
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43 AUSCHAM – VIETNAM REAL ESTATE| SEP 2014
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