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How to Assess the Commercial How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port or Stevedore Company David Wignall

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How to Assess the CommercialHow to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port or Stevedore Company

David Wignall

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Assessing Commercial Viability

• How can you assess the• How can you assess the commercial viability of a port?port?

• This provides a seller with an idea of the price they should receive and a buyer with a price they pay for a terminal

• Always remember the difference between commercial value and economic benefit

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Permit the Use of a Black Box Model?

• Never!• Never!

– Different objectives of the vendors

• Encourage economic regional development

• Obtain operating expertise / Infrastructure investment

– Different objectives of the purchasers

• To generate return on investmentg

• Strategic geographical location

– Different environmental aspects– Different environmental aspects

– Ownership structures of the concession

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How to Assess a Terminal’s Real Value

• DWA uses three coupled models:• DWA uses three coupled models: 

1. Throughput model; which forecasts container thro ghp tthroughput

2. Operational model ; which simulates the ti d d l t f th t i loperations and development of the terminal 

against throughput

i i l d l hi h & d3. Financial model ; which constructs P&L and Balance Sheets on an annual basis for the valuation periodvaluation period

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How to Assess a Terminal’s Real Value

• A valuation period of between 20 and 30• A valuation period of between 20 and 30 years is most common to match the concession periodconcession period

• From these models we can provide a financial value

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Valuation Process

ThroughputModel

FinancialModel

Th h

OperationalModel

TerminalValuation

HinterlandAssessment

Regulatory

Throughput toRevenue

Assessment

Throughput toOperating Expenses

WACC Assessment

FinancingAssessment

CompetitionAssessment

Throughput toCAPX Assessment

Operating ExpensesAssessment Assessment

ValuationAssessment

ScenarioAssessmentTrade Captureability

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Throughput Model Hinterland Assessment

• Hinterland supply and demand forecast• Hinterland supply and demand forecast

– Short Term (0‐5years)

• Current export/import demand in the region

• Local infrastructure (Road/Rail/Inland waterways)

• Direct competition

• Historical Growth Rates

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Throughput Model Hinterland Assessment

– Medium TermMedium Term

• Expected trends – specific to container industry

G th d d l t f i d t i d i t• Growth and development of industries conducive to container volumes

• Growth of logistics centres at the portGrowth of logistics centres at the port

• Growth and development of infrastructure to container volumes

• Development of intermodal connectivity and logistics chain alliances

– Long Term

• Gross Domestic Product and long term expectationsg p

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Throughput Model Tariff Assessment

• The tariff levels are also generated:• The tariff levels are also generated:

– For the ports:

• Terminal handling

• Port dues

• Storage 

• Miscellaneous charges

– For distribution:

• Transport costsTransport costs

• Distribution costs

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Throughput Model Tariff Assessment

– Customer Study:Customer Study:

• Interview terminal customers to determine their expectations on pricingp p g

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Throughput Model Example Figures

Typical handling charges vary between USD60 and USD330

Approximate Average Container HandlingApproximate Average Container HandlingApproximate Average Container Handling Charges

328350

Approximate Average Container Handling Charges

328350259 250 228

202 201 200 199 190 173 163 156 140 120 118 117 110 93 75100150200250300350

US$

/TEU

259 250 228202 201 200 199 190 173 163 156 140 120 118 117 110 93 75100

150200250300350

US$

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World Bank

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Throughput Model Regulatory / Competition AssessmentCompetition Assessment

• To determine the appropriate tariff a detailed• To determine the appropriate tariff a detailed study of the competition in the vicinity is undertakenundertaken

– Direct competition – Other container and break bulk terminalsbulk terminals

– Indirect competition – other modes of transport h d il b i tisuch as road, rail, barging operations

• Regulatory study

– Taxes and trade legislation obtained

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Throughput Model Added Value

• Gives the concessionaire a better• Gives the concessionaire a better understanding of future throughput

• Gives a platform to produce throughput scenarios and establishes income drivers

• Value can be added through the development of road rail and inland shippingdevelopment of road, rail and inland shipping into the terminal hinterland. In the case of transhipment terminals feeder and bargingtranshipment terminals, feeder and barging operations can be looked at

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Throughput Model Added Value

• Identify where weak strong links lie in the• Identify where weak strong links lie in the logistics chain

• This has an impact on the potential income which flows through to the financialwhich flows through to the financial evaluation model

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Operational Model Key Objectives and CapabilityKey Objectives and Capability

• Model needs to be able to calculate/estimate• Model needs to be able to calculate/estimate

– Cost of the current operation

– Identify and integrate the main cost drivers such as throughput and productivity

– Evaluate the cost impact for different equipment choices or container handling systems

– Evaluate berth and yard capacities

– Establish capital expenditure requirements basedEstablish capital expenditure requirements based on the cost drivers

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Operational Model ‐ Step 1

• Model the current container terminalModel the current container terminal operation

Identify variable and fix cost components– Identify variable and fix cost components

– Model current operational processes and work tipractices

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Operational Model ‐ Step 1

– Establish current productivities of the mainEstablish current productivities of the main operational functions i.e. Vessel operation, road/rail exchange

– Calibrate with current operational costs to establish the accuracy of the model 

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Operational Model ‐ Step 2

• Establish alternative equipment choices and• Establish alternative equipment  choices and model their operational costs under different throughput and productivity scenariosthroughput and productivity scenarios

– Top lift, reach stacker direct/indirect

– Straddle carrier

– RTG

– Automated RMG + AGV (Trailer or straddle carrier))

• For all the options personnel and equipment requirements need to be establishedrequirements need to be established

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Operational Model Step 2 Example Vessel OperationVessel Operation 

• Costs are related to the time a container• Costs are related to the time a container crane is deployed and its personnel paid.

• Gross crane productivity is the best measure although it does not incorporate costs that are incurred when the vessel starts or ends during shifts

• What is the effect on costs per vessel move?

• Simple comparison reach stacker versus• Simple comparison reach stacker versus straddle carrier handling system

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Operational Model Step 3 Capacity EvaluationCapacity Evaluation

• Berth capacityBerth capacity– Quay length

N b f– Number of cranes

– Working hours

– Productivity

– Utilisation factors

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Operational Model Step 3 Capacity EvaluationCapacity Evaluation

• Yard capacityYard capacity– Available space

S ki– Stacking system

– Dwell times

– Yard utilisation factors

• These capacities are critical to determine at pwhat stages additional equipment or change to a different handling system is required

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Operational Model Example CAPX

• Step changes in• Step changes in infrastructure requirements

Infrastructure

30

35

Infrastructure

30

35

requirements

• Growth in terminal  20

25

of E

quip

men

t

20

25

of E

quip

men

t

corresponds to a higher requirement 

5

10

15

Amou

nt o

5

10

15

Amou

nt o

and use of infrastructure

0

5

2005

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07

2009

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Trailers Tractors Rail Mounted GantriesR bb T d G i R h S k /F k Shi Sh C

0

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Trailers Tractors Rail Mounted GantriesR bb T d G i R h S k /F k Shi Sh CRubber Tyred Gantries Reach Stackers/Forks Ship to Shore CranesMobile Harbour CranesRubber Tyred Gantries Reach Stackers/Forks Ship to Shore CranesMobile Harbour Cranes

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Operational Model Step 4 Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis

• Example labour environment• Example labour environment

• Ideally a container terminal operator wants full control and responsibility of its personnel

– Direct employment

– Enterprise agreements that cover personnel costs, deployment and flexibilityp y y

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Operational Model Step 4 Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis

• Worst case scenario (hypothetical)• Worst case scenario (hypothetical)

– Labor pool where the conditions are negotiated bet een the nion and a third partbetween the union and a third party

– Many unions with specific work coverage

– No opportunity for enterprise specific deployment

• This will reduce the enterprise/concession value

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Financial Model

• The financial model is to determine a valueThe financial model is to determine a value for the concession based on free cash flows (FCF) and provide analysis tools

• Defined as the cash in the business that is available to financiers

• Created from the throughput and operational models

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Financial Model

• Defined as: Net Profit – Capital Expenditure –Defined as: Net Profit  Capital Expenditure Change in Working Capital

• Free Cash Flows and other indicators areFree Cash Flows and other indicators are then analysed to develop a value for the concession– Multiple of EBITDA (Enterprise Multiples)

• High infrastructure intensive firms

• Good before financing comparison

– Internal Rate of Return

– Net Present Value

– Financial Ratio Analysis

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Financial Model Case Study

• Heavy Capital Expenditure in assets causes the• Heavy Capital Expenditure in assets causes the free cash flow in initial years to be negative. This provides an insight as to whenThis provides an insight as to when expenditure is payable

Free Cash Flow

10 00012,00014,000

Free Cash Flow

10 00012,00014,000

2 0000

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,000

6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5

EUR

'000

2 0000

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,000

6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5

EUR

'000

-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000

2006

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Financial Model Case Study

• Inflows of capital is required to get the• Inflows of capital is required to get the terminal into operating condition

l h b d– In later years this can be repaid

Expected Financing RequirementsExpected Financing Requirements

8 0009,000

10,00011,00012,00013,00014,000

000

8 0009,000

10,00011,00012,00013,00014,000

000

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000

EUR

'0

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000

EUR

'0

02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Required Debt Required Share Capital

02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Required Debt Required Share Capital

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Financial Model Example of Operating Costs over the ConcessionCosts over the Concession

• Staffing costs are found to make up a high• Staffing costs are found to make up a high proportion of expenses in a container terminal

Operating Expenses Make Up

90%100%

Operating Expenses Make Up

90%100%

40%50%60%70%80%90%

40%50%60%70%80%90%

0%10%20%30%

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2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Energy and Lubes Maintenance Costs per AnnumOperating Insurance Staff Costs per Annum

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Energy and Lubes Maintenance Costs per AnnumOperating Insurance Staff Costs per Annum

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Financial Model Example of Operating Costs over the ConcessionCosts over the Concession

• Operating revenue often lies between 50%• Operating revenue often lies between 50% and 75% in European container terminals

Operating Income Make Up

100%

Operating Income Make Up

100%

50%60%70%80%90%

50%60%70%80%90%

0%10%20%30%40%

0%10%20%30%40%

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Financial Model Example of CAPX over life of ConcessionCAPX over life of Concession

• Initial acquisition and replacement of• Initial acquisition and replacement of infrastructure is high

l d l– Varies as per operational model

Capital Expenditure ScheduleCapital Expenditure Schedule

8,000

10,000

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0

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'000

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Infrastructure Container Handling Intangibles IT System IT Hardware

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Financial Model Example of CAPX over life of ConcessionCAPX over life of Concession

• Growth in terminal corresponds to a higher• Growth in terminal corresponds to a higher requirement and use of infrastructure

Depreciation and Net Book Value

3,500 45,000

0)

Depreciation and Net Book Value

3,500 45,000

0)

1 500

2,000

2,500

3,000

on (E

UR

'000

)

20 00025,00030,00035,00040,000

alue

(EUR

'000

1 500

2,000

2,500

3,000

on (E

UR

'000

)

20 00025,00030,00035,00040,000

alue

(EUR

'000

0

500

1,000

1,500

Depr

ecia

tio

05,00010,00015,00020,000

Net

Boo

k V

a

0

500

1,000

1,500

Depr

ecia

tio

05,00010,00015,00020,000

Net

Boo

k V

a

0

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

0

Total Depreciation Total NBV

0

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

0

Total Depreciation Total NBV

How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 32

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Financial Model Processing of the ResultsProcessing of the Results

• Important phase is to investigate the results of• Important phase is to investigate the results of the valuation

l– Scenario Analysis

– Sensitivity Analysis

Minimal Compet it ion

NPV For Operating Scenarios

Minimal Compet it ion

NPV For Operating Scenarios

15%

IRR For Financial Scenarios

15%

IRR For Financial Scenarios

Logical

Minimal Compet it ion

Tariff AssumptionLogical

Minimal Compet it ion

Tariff Assumption

9%Loan Interest

Rate9%

Loan Interest Rate

Pesimist ic Basic Opt imist icAggressive Compet it ion

NPV

Throughput Volume

0-50,000 50,000-100,000 100,000-150,000 EUR '000

Pesimist ic Basic Opt imist icAggressive Compet it ion

NPV

Throughput Volume

0-50,000 50,000-100,000 100,000-150,000 EUR '000

0% 50% 100%7%

IRR

Gearing

0%-5% 5%-10% 10%-15%15%-20% 20%-25%

0% 50% 100%7%

IRR

Gearing

0%-5% 5%-10% 10%-15%15%-20% 20%-25%

How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 33

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Financial Model Sensitivity of input VariablesSensitivity of input Variables

• The impact of various variables on the modelThe impact of various variables on the model is investigated

• The degree of influence can correlate to the• The degree of influence can correlate to the actual operations of the terminal

I t f b f ld h th– Impact of a number of cranes could show the impact on value if it breaks down

Impact of the interest rate to the companies cash– Impact of the interest rate to the companies cash flow

• Allows for mitigation planning• Allows for mitigation planning

How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 34

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Financial Model Sensitivity of input VariablesSensitivity of input Variables

NPV sensitivity to a 10% change in variableNPV sensitivity to a 10% change in variable

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

y

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

y

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

Size

of s

iteBe

taM

arke

t Ris

kR

isk

Free

Rat

eD

ebt T

o Eq

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Taxe

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Stor

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ion

Net

wor

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Max

. cra

ne#

of d

ays

per

Max

. Cra

nes

/Li

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our

Max

. RTG

Sens

itivi

t

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

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of s

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-15.0%

Variable

NPV Low % NPV High %

-15.0%

Variable

NPV Low % NPV High %

How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 35

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Financial Model Example Enterprise Value Calculation (Based on EBITDA)Calculation (Based on EBITDA)

• Enterprise Value ofEnterprise Value of the firm (Takeover price) can be d t i d

EV/EBITDA Multiples of Businesses in the Port Industry

13.9

11.7 11.3 11.39.9 9.7

9 8 8

EV/EBITDA Multiples of Businesses in the Port Industry

13.9

11.7 11.3 11.39.9 9.7

9 8 8determined– Forecast cash flows

9 8.88 7.8

6.9

4.8 4.7 4.1

ga ts PH rs d P SA &O ko PH PH ort ort TSI

9 8.88 7.8

6.9

4.8 4.7 4.1

ga ts PH rs d P SA &O ko PH PH ort ort TSI

– Comparable enterprise multiple

l l f

Port of

Tauran

ga

* Pelin

do III

/P&O Ports

* HMM/H

PH

* TCB/Sha

reholders

Ports o

f Auc

kland

* Ameri

can Port

/ABP

* Hes

se N

oord N

atie/PSA

P&O

* Powell

Duff

ryn/N

ikko

* ICTS/H

PH* E

CT/HPH

Northpo

rJo

hor P

ortIC

TS

EV Enterprise Value* Acquisitions

Port of

Tauran

ga

* Pelin

do III

/P&O Ports

* HMM/H

PH

* TCB/Sha

reholders

Ports o

f Auc

kland

* Ameri

can Port

/ABP

* Hes

se N

oord N

atie/PSA

P&O

* Powell

Duff

ryn/N

ikko

* ICTS/H

PH* E

CT/HPH

Northpo

rJo

hor P

ortIC

TS

EV Enterprise Value* Acquisitions

• Enterprise multiple of comparable firms

How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 36

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Financial Model Example Enterprise Value Calculation (Based on EBITDA)Calculation (Based on EBITDA)

• Select an firm similar to its state ofSelect an firm similar to its state of development / market

• Enterprise multiple should increase as valueEnterprise multiple should increase as value increases

Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization

10 000

12,000

14,000

Amortization

10 000

12,000

14,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

EUR

'000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

EUR

'000

-

2,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

-

2,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 37

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Financial Model Example Enterprise Value Calculation (Based on EBITDA)Calculation (Based on EBITDA)

• Enterprise value = Market Value + Debt – CashEnterprise value   Market Value + Debt  Cash• Estimate that after 5 years the firm is in steady statestate

• Debt: 16 mill Cash: 28 mill• Estimate the this firm is comparable to• Estimate the this firm is comparable to ECT/HPH (x6.9)

• Enterprise Value approx 65 6 mill (9 5 mill• Enterprise Value approx 65.6 mill (9.5 mill EBITDA x 6.9)

• Market Value 77 6 mill (65 6 28+16)• Market Value  77.6 mill (65.6‐28+16)

• Discount back at WACC over 5 years 48.9 illi lmillion value 

How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 38

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Financial Model Example of IRR and NPVIRR and NPV

• Net present value of the cash flows describes• Net present value of the cash flows describes 40 million

• Internal rate of return 20%NPV For Operating ScenariosNPV For Operating Scenarios

Logical

Minimal Compet it ion

Tariff Logical

Minimal Compet it ion

Tariff

Pesimist ic Basic Opt imist icAggressive Compet it ion

Logical Assumption

Pesimist ic Basic Opt imist icAggressive Compet it ion

Logical Assumption

NPV

Throughput Volume

0-50,000 50,000-100,000 100,000-150,000 EUR '000NPV

Throughput Volume

0-50,000 50,000-100,000 100,000-150,000 EUR '000

How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 39

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Financial Model Example of IRR and NPVIRR and NPV

• Value under different operating and financial• Value under different operating and financial scenarios and sensitivity

• If there have been recent sales in the industry these can also be valued forward to a comparative point in this model

Minimal Competi tion

IRR For Operating Scenarios

LogicalTarif f

A ssumpt ion

Pesimistic Basic OptimisticAggr essive Competi tion

IR R

Thro ug hput V o lume

0.0%-10.0% 10.0%-20.0% 20.0%-30.0%

How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 40

30.0%-40.0% 40.0%-50.0%

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Expected Rates of Return

How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 41

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Conclusion

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How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 42

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Thank You

David Wignall AssociatesDavid Wignall Associateswww.DavidWignallAssociates.com

[email protected]

Tel: +65 9621 8738Tel: +65 9621 8738

43How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company