Viability Session 1: An Introduction to viability (including definitions and terminology)
Viability of a Port or Stevedore Companydavidwignallassociates.com/downloads/How_to_Assess... ·...
Transcript of Viability of a Port or Stevedore Companydavidwignallassociates.com/downloads/How_to_Assess... ·...
How to Assess the CommercialHow to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port or Stevedore Company
David Wignall
Assessing Commercial Viability
• How can you assess the• How can you assess the commercial viability of a port?port?
• This provides a seller with an idea of the price they should receive and a buyer with a price they pay for a terminal
• Always remember the difference between commercial value and economic benefit
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 2
Permit the Use of a Black Box Model?
• Never!• Never!
– Different objectives of the vendors
• Encourage economic regional development
• Obtain operating expertise / Infrastructure investment
– Different objectives of the purchasers
• To generate return on investmentg
• Strategic geographical location
– Different environmental aspects– Different environmental aspects
– Ownership structures of the concession
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 3
How to Assess a Terminal’s Real Value
• DWA uses three coupled models:• DWA uses three coupled models:
1. Throughput model; which forecasts container thro ghp tthroughput
2. Operational model ; which simulates the ti d d l t f th t i loperations and development of the terminal
against throughput
i i l d l hi h & d3. Financial model ; which constructs P&L and Balance Sheets on an annual basis for the valuation periodvaluation period
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 4
How to Assess a Terminal’s Real Value
• A valuation period of between 20 and 30• A valuation period of between 20 and 30 years is most common to match the concession periodconcession period
• From these models we can provide a financial value
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 5
Valuation Process
ThroughputModel
FinancialModel
Th h
OperationalModel
TerminalValuation
HinterlandAssessment
Regulatory
Throughput toRevenue
Assessment
Throughput toOperating Expenses
WACC Assessment
FinancingAssessment
CompetitionAssessment
Throughput toCAPX Assessment
Operating ExpensesAssessment Assessment
ValuationAssessment
ScenarioAssessmentTrade Captureability
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 6
Throughput Model Hinterland Assessment
• Hinterland supply and demand forecast• Hinterland supply and demand forecast
– Short Term (0‐5years)
• Current export/import demand in the region
• Local infrastructure (Road/Rail/Inland waterways)
• Direct competition
• Historical Growth Rates
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 7
Throughput Model Hinterland Assessment
– Medium TermMedium Term
• Expected trends – specific to container industry
G th d d l t f i d t i d i t• Growth and development of industries conducive to container volumes
• Growth of logistics centres at the portGrowth of logistics centres at the port
• Growth and development of infrastructure to container volumes
• Development of intermodal connectivity and logistics chain alliances
– Long Term
• Gross Domestic Product and long term expectationsg p
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 8
Throughput Model Tariff Assessment
• The tariff levels are also generated:• The tariff levels are also generated:
– For the ports:
• Terminal handling
• Port dues
• Storage
• Miscellaneous charges
– For distribution:
• Transport costsTransport costs
• Distribution costs
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 9
Throughput Model Tariff Assessment
– Customer Study:Customer Study:
• Interview terminal customers to determine their expectations on pricingp p g
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 10
Throughput Model Example Figures
Typical handling charges vary between USD60 and USD330
Approximate Average Container HandlingApproximate Average Container HandlingApproximate Average Container Handling Charges
328350
Approximate Average Container Handling Charges
328350259 250 228
202 201 200 199 190 173 163 156 140 120 118 117 110 93 75100150200250300350
US$
/TEU
259 250 228202 201 200 199 190 173 163 156 140 120 118 117 110 93 75100
150200250300350
US$
/TEU
050
Brazil
d States
Japa
nIta
lyChile
France
Spain
Austra
liaCana
daKing
domGerm
any
herla
nds
Taiwan
Belgium
ilippin
esng
apore
ChinaTha
iland
Malays
ia
U
050
Brazil
d States
Japa
nIta
lyChile
France
Spain
Austra
liaCana
daKing
domGerm
any
herla
nds
Taiwan
Belgium
ilippin
esng
apore
ChinaTha
iland
Malays
ia
U
United S J F Au Ca
United K
inGer
Nethe T BePhil
ipSing Th Ma
United S J F Au Ca
United K
inGer
Nethe T BePhil
ipSing Th Ma
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 11
World Bank
Throughput Model Regulatory / Competition AssessmentCompetition Assessment
• To determine the appropriate tariff a detailed• To determine the appropriate tariff a detailed study of the competition in the vicinity is undertakenundertaken
– Direct competition – Other container and break bulk terminalsbulk terminals
– Indirect competition – other modes of transport h d il b i tisuch as road, rail, barging operations
• Regulatory study
– Taxes and trade legislation obtained
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 12
Throughput Model Added Value
• Gives the concessionaire a better• Gives the concessionaire a better understanding of future throughput
• Gives a platform to produce throughput scenarios and establishes income drivers
• Value can be added through the development of road rail and inland shippingdevelopment of road, rail and inland shipping into the terminal hinterland. In the case of transhipment terminals feeder and bargingtranshipment terminals, feeder and barging operations can be looked at
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 13
Throughput Model Added Value
• Identify where weak strong links lie in the• Identify where weak strong links lie in the logistics chain
• This has an impact on the potential income which flows through to the financialwhich flows through to the financial evaluation model
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 14
Operational Model Key Objectives and CapabilityKey Objectives and Capability
• Model needs to be able to calculate/estimate• Model needs to be able to calculate/estimate
– Cost of the current operation
– Identify and integrate the main cost drivers such as throughput and productivity
– Evaluate the cost impact for different equipment choices or container handling systems
– Evaluate berth and yard capacities
– Establish capital expenditure requirements basedEstablish capital expenditure requirements based on the cost drivers
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 15
Operational Model ‐ Step 1
• Model the current container terminalModel the current container terminal operation
Identify variable and fix cost components– Identify variable and fix cost components
– Model current operational processes and work tipractices
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 16
Operational Model ‐ Step 1
– Establish current productivities of the mainEstablish current productivities of the main operational functions i.e. Vessel operation, road/rail exchange
– Calibrate with current operational costs to establish the accuracy of the model
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 17
Operational Model ‐ Step 2
• Establish alternative equipment choices and• Establish alternative equipment choices and model their operational costs under different throughput and productivity scenariosthroughput and productivity scenarios
– Top lift, reach stacker direct/indirect
– Straddle carrier
– RTG
– Automated RMG + AGV (Trailer or straddle carrier))
• For all the options personnel and equipment requirements need to be establishedrequirements need to be established
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 18
Operational Model Step 2 Example Vessel OperationVessel Operation
• Costs are related to the time a container• Costs are related to the time a container crane is deployed and its personnel paid.
• Gross crane productivity is the best measure although it does not incorporate costs that are incurred when the vessel starts or ends during shifts
• What is the effect on costs per vessel move?
• Simple comparison reach stacker versus• Simple comparison reach stacker versus straddle carrier handling system
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 19
Operational Model Step 3 Capacity EvaluationCapacity Evaluation
• Berth capacityBerth capacity– Quay length
N b f– Number of cranes
– Working hours
– Productivity
– Utilisation factors
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 20
Operational Model Step 3 Capacity EvaluationCapacity Evaluation
• Yard capacityYard capacity– Available space
S ki– Stacking system
– Dwell times
– Yard utilisation factors
• These capacities are critical to determine at pwhat stages additional equipment or change to a different handling system is required
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 21
Operational Model Example CAPX
• Step changes in• Step changes in infrastructure requirements
Infrastructure
30
35
Infrastructure
30
35
requirements
• Growth in terminal 20
25
of E
quip
men
t
20
25
of E
quip
men
t
corresponds to a higher requirement
5
10
15
Amou
nt o
5
10
15
Amou
nt o
and use of infrastructure
0
5
2005
20
07
2009
20
11
2013
20
15
2017
20
19
2021
20
23
2025
Trailers Tractors Rail Mounted GantriesR bb T d G i R h S k /F k Shi Sh C
0
5
2005
20
07
2009
20
11
2013
20
15
2017
20
19
2021
20
23
2025
Trailers Tractors Rail Mounted GantriesR bb T d G i R h S k /F k Shi Sh CRubber Tyred Gantries Reach Stackers/Forks Ship to Shore CranesMobile Harbour CranesRubber Tyred Gantries Reach Stackers/Forks Ship to Shore CranesMobile Harbour Cranes
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 22
Operational Model Step 4 Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis
• Example labour environment• Example labour environment
• Ideally a container terminal operator wants full control and responsibility of its personnel
– Direct employment
– Enterprise agreements that cover personnel costs, deployment and flexibilityp y y
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 23
Operational Model Step 4 Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis
• Worst case scenario (hypothetical)• Worst case scenario (hypothetical)
– Labor pool where the conditions are negotiated bet een the nion and a third partbetween the union and a third party
– Many unions with specific work coverage
– No opportunity for enterprise specific deployment
• This will reduce the enterprise/concession value
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 24
Financial Model
• The financial model is to determine a valueThe financial model is to determine a value for the concession based on free cash flows (FCF) and provide analysis tools
• Defined as the cash in the business that is available to financiers
• Created from the throughput and operational models
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 25
Financial Model
• Defined as: Net Profit – Capital Expenditure –Defined as: Net Profit Capital Expenditure Change in Working Capital
• Free Cash Flows and other indicators areFree Cash Flows and other indicators are then analysed to develop a value for the concession– Multiple of EBITDA (Enterprise Multiples)
• High infrastructure intensive firms
• Good before financing comparison
– Internal Rate of Return
– Net Present Value
– Financial Ratio Analysis
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 26
Financial Model Case Study
• Heavy Capital Expenditure in assets causes the• Heavy Capital Expenditure in assets causes the free cash flow in initial years to be negative. This provides an insight as to whenThis provides an insight as to when expenditure is payable
Free Cash Flow
10 00012,00014,000
Free Cash Flow
10 00012,00014,000
2 0000
2,0004,0006,0008,000
10,000
6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5
EUR
'000
2 0000
2,0004,0006,0008,000
10,000
6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5
EUR
'000
-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Year-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Year
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 27
Financial Model Case Study
• Inflows of capital is required to get the• Inflows of capital is required to get the terminal into operating condition
l h b d– In later years this can be repaid
Expected Financing RequirementsExpected Financing Requirements
8 0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,000
000
8 0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,000
000
1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
EUR
'0
1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
EUR
'0
02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Required Debt Required Share Capital
02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Required Debt Required Share Capital
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 28
Financial Model Example of Operating Costs over the ConcessionCosts over the Concession
• Staffing costs are found to make up a high• Staffing costs are found to make up a high proportion of expenses in a container terminal
Operating Expenses Make Up
90%100%
Operating Expenses Make Up
90%100%
40%50%60%70%80%90%
40%50%60%70%80%90%
0%10%20%30%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
0%10%20%30%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Energy and Lubes Maintenance Costs per AnnumOperating Insurance Staff Costs per Annum
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Energy and Lubes Maintenance Costs per AnnumOperating Insurance Staff Costs per Annum
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 29
Financial Model Example of Operating Costs over the ConcessionCosts over the Concession
• Operating revenue often lies between 50%• Operating revenue often lies between 50% and 75% in European container terminals
Operating Income Make Up
100%
Operating Income Make Up
100%
50%60%70%80%90%
50%60%70%80%90%
0%10%20%30%40%
0%10%20%30%40%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Revenue Expenses
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Revenue Expenses
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 30
Financial Model Example of CAPX over life of ConcessionCAPX over life of Concession
• Initial acquisition and replacement of• Initial acquisition and replacement of infrastructure is high
l d l– Varies as per operational model
Capital Expenditure ScheduleCapital Expenditure Schedule
8,000
10,000
12,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
EUR
'000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
EUR
'000
-2,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Year
Infrastructure Container Handling Intangibles IT System IT Hardware
-2,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Year
Infrastructure Container Handling Intangibles IT System IT Hardware
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 31
Financial Model Example of CAPX over life of ConcessionCAPX over life of Concession
• Growth in terminal corresponds to a higher• Growth in terminal corresponds to a higher requirement and use of infrastructure
Depreciation and Net Book Value
3,500 45,000
0)
Depreciation and Net Book Value
3,500 45,000
0)
1 500
2,000
2,500
3,000
on (E
UR
'000
)
20 00025,00030,00035,00040,000
alue
(EUR
'000
1 500
2,000
2,500
3,000
on (E
UR
'000
)
20 00025,00030,00035,00040,000
alue
(EUR
'000
0
500
1,000
1,500
Depr
ecia
tio
05,00010,00015,00020,000
Net
Boo
k V
a
0
500
1,000
1,500
Depr
ecia
tio
05,00010,00015,00020,000
Net
Boo
k V
a
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
0
Total Depreciation Total NBV
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
0
Total Depreciation Total NBV
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 32
Financial Model Processing of the ResultsProcessing of the Results
• Important phase is to investigate the results of• Important phase is to investigate the results of the valuation
l– Scenario Analysis
– Sensitivity Analysis
Minimal Compet it ion
NPV For Operating Scenarios
Minimal Compet it ion
NPV For Operating Scenarios
15%
IRR For Financial Scenarios
15%
IRR For Financial Scenarios
Logical
Minimal Compet it ion
Tariff AssumptionLogical
Minimal Compet it ion
Tariff Assumption
9%Loan Interest
Rate9%
Loan Interest Rate
Pesimist ic Basic Opt imist icAggressive Compet it ion
NPV
Throughput Volume
0-50,000 50,000-100,000 100,000-150,000 EUR '000
Pesimist ic Basic Opt imist icAggressive Compet it ion
NPV
Throughput Volume
0-50,000 50,000-100,000 100,000-150,000 EUR '000
0% 50% 100%7%
IRR
Gearing
0%-5% 5%-10% 10%-15%15%-20% 20%-25%
0% 50% 100%7%
IRR
Gearing
0%-5% 5%-10% 10%-15%15%-20% 20%-25%
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 33
Financial Model Sensitivity of input VariablesSensitivity of input Variables
• The impact of various variables on the modelThe impact of various variables on the model is investigated
• The degree of influence can correlate to the• The degree of influence can correlate to the actual operations of the terminal
I t f b f ld h th– Impact of a number of cranes could show the impact on value if it breaks down
Impact of the interest rate to the companies cash– Impact of the interest rate to the companies cash flow
• Allows for mitigation planning• Allows for mitigation planning
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 34
Financial Model Sensitivity of input VariablesSensitivity of input Variables
NPV sensitivity to a 10% change in variableNPV sensitivity to a 10% change in variable
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
y
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
y
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
Size
of s
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arke
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Free
Rat
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Taxe
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edR
ubbe
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each
Trac
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Trai
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Infra
stru
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and
Lub
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sys
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sO
/H's
Mob
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ail M
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Trac
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Trai
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Infra
stru
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Pow
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Busi
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Tax
Insu
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anag
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axO
pera
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Man
agem
ent
Mid
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Oth
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ditio
nal S
taff
Stor
age
Con
gest
ion
Net
wor
king
Max
. cra
ne#
of d
ays
per
Max
. Cra
nes
/Li
fts p
er h
our
Max
. RTG
Sens
itivi
t
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
Size
of s
iteBe
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arke
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Taxe
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Max
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ays
per
Max
. Cra
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/Li
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our
Max
. RTG
Sens
itivi
t
-15.0%
Variable
NPV Low % NPV High %
-15.0%
Variable
NPV Low % NPV High %
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 35
Financial Model Example Enterprise Value Calculation (Based on EBITDA)Calculation (Based on EBITDA)
• Enterprise Value ofEnterprise Value of the firm (Takeover price) can be d t i d
EV/EBITDA Multiples of Businesses in the Port Industry
13.9
11.7 11.3 11.39.9 9.7
9 8 8
EV/EBITDA Multiples of Businesses in the Port Industry
13.9
11.7 11.3 11.39.9 9.7
9 8 8determined– Forecast cash flows
9 8.88 7.8
6.9
4.8 4.7 4.1
ga ts PH rs d P SA &O ko PH PH ort ort TSI
9 8.88 7.8
6.9
4.8 4.7 4.1
ga ts PH rs d P SA &O ko PH PH ort ort TSI
– Comparable enterprise multiple
l l f
Port of
Tauran
ga
* Pelin
do III
/P&O Ports
* HMM/H
PH
* TCB/Sha
reholders
Ports o
f Auc
kland
* Ameri
can Port
/ABP
* Hes
se N
oord N
atie/PSA
P&O
* Powell
Duff
ryn/N
ikko
* ICTS/H
PH* E
CT/HPH
Northpo
rJo
hor P
ortIC
TS
EV Enterprise Value* Acquisitions
Port of
Tauran
ga
* Pelin
do III
/P&O Ports
* HMM/H
PH
* TCB/Sha
reholders
Ports o
f Auc
kland
* Ameri
can Port
/ABP
* Hes
se N
oord N
atie/PSA
P&O
* Powell
Duff
ryn/N
ikko
* ICTS/H
PH* E
CT/HPH
Northpo
rJo
hor P
ortIC
TS
EV Enterprise Value* Acquisitions
• Enterprise multiple of comparable firms
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 36
Financial Model Example Enterprise Value Calculation (Based on EBITDA)Calculation (Based on EBITDA)
• Select an firm similar to its state ofSelect an firm similar to its state of development / market
• Enterprise multiple should increase as valueEnterprise multiple should increase as value increases
Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization
10 000
12,000
14,000
Amortization
10 000
12,000
14,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
EUR
'000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
EUR
'000
-
2,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-
2,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 37
Financial Model Example Enterprise Value Calculation (Based on EBITDA)Calculation (Based on EBITDA)
• Enterprise value = Market Value + Debt – CashEnterprise value Market Value + Debt Cash• Estimate that after 5 years the firm is in steady statestate
• Debt: 16 mill Cash: 28 mill• Estimate the this firm is comparable to• Estimate the this firm is comparable to ECT/HPH (x6.9)
• Enterprise Value approx 65 6 mill (9 5 mill• Enterprise Value approx 65.6 mill (9.5 mill EBITDA x 6.9)
• Market Value 77 6 mill (65 6 28+16)• Market Value 77.6 mill (65.6‐28+16)
• Discount back at WACC over 5 years 48.9 illi lmillion value
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 38
Financial Model Example of IRR and NPVIRR and NPV
• Net present value of the cash flows describes• Net present value of the cash flows describes 40 million
• Internal rate of return 20%NPV For Operating ScenariosNPV For Operating Scenarios
Logical
Minimal Compet it ion
Tariff Logical
Minimal Compet it ion
Tariff
Pesimist ic Basic Opt imist icAggressive Compet it ion
Logical Assumption
Pesimist ic Basic Opt imist icAggressive Compet it ion
Logical Assumption
NPV
Throughput Volume
0-50,000 50,000-100,000 100,000-150,000 EUR '000NPV
Throughput Volume
0-50,000 50,000-100,000 100,000-150,000 EUR '000
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 39
Financial Model Example of IRR and NPVIRR and NPV
• Value under different operating and financial• Value under different operating and financial scenarios and sensitivity
• If there have been recent sales in the industry these can also be valued forward to a comparative point in this model
Minimal Competi tion
IRR For Operating Scenarios
LogicalTarif f
A ssumpt ion
Pesimistic Basic OptimisticAggr essive Competi tion
IR R
Thro ug hput V o lume
0.0%-10.0% 10.0%-20.0% 20.0%-30.0%
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 40
30.0%-40.0% 40.0%-50.0%
Expected Rates of Return
How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company 41
Conclusion
• Upper bound for buyer Business• Upper bound for buyer is 40‐50 million euro.
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43How to Assess the Commercial Viability of a Port / Stevedore Company