VIA of Climate Change on Malaysia Agricultural System: Current ...
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VIA of Climate Change on Malaysia Agricultural System: Current understanding and Plan
Sahibin Abd. Rahim Universi@ Kebangsaan Malaysia The Na@onal Universi@ of Malasia
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CLIMATIC CHANGE IN MALAYSIA Mustafa Kamal Baharuddin • Director, Soil Resource Management
a n d C o n s e r v a @ o n D i v i s i o n , Department of Agriculture, Malaysia
• Loca@on:
• La@tudes 0o 60' N to 6o 40' N and from longitudes 99o 35' E to 119o 25' E. Malaysia is a humid tropical country and its climate is characterized by monsoon winds which are subject to interference by mountains in Peninsula Malaysia, Borneo and Sumatra.
• The average annual rainfall is about 2,420
mm/yr in the peninsular, 2,630 mm/yr in Sabah and 3850 mm/yr in Sarawak. However, the annual rainfall is more than 4,000 mm/yr in mountainous areas of Sarawak, and more than 3,000 mm/yr in the northern half of Peninsular Malaysia and the coastal areas of Sabah and Sarawak.
• The monthly mean air temperature is 25oC to
28oC in the coastal lowlands and monthly rela@ve humidity is between 75 to 90%.
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CLIMATIC CHANGE IN MALAYSIA • Extreme or severe weather is simply really bad weather or weather
on larger, more serious and devasta@ng scale, crea@ng a natural disaster.
• A disaster caused by climate change could be defined as a serious
disrup@on to the func@oning of a community or a society causes widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.
• In Malaysia, forecast have been made on climate modeling using 14
GCM’s (Global Climate Models) which shows that Malaysia could experience temperature changes from 0.7 to 2.6 degree Celsius and precipita@on changes ranging from -‐30% to 30%.
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FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
• These factors could be global, na@onal and localized factors.
• Global warming, open burning (haze) are some of the good examples of global factor that are transborder in nature .
• Na@onal and localized causal factors include industrializa@on, clearing of land for agriculture, encroachment of fragile ecosystem.
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• Seluas 6,230 hektar kawasan tanah padi di kawasan Lembaga Kemajuan Pertanian Muda (Mada) @dak akan menjalankan ak@vi@ pertanian berikutan masalah kawasan tanah jerlus untuk tempoh setahun tahun depan, kawasan tersebut melipu@ 860 hektar tanah sawah di Pendang dan Kubang Pasu manakala 5,370 hektar lagi di seluruh kawasan Mada di Kedah dan Perlis.
• Seramai 2,831 petani @dak dapat melakukan kerja penanaman padi dalam tempoh itu apabila tanah mereka akan dikeringkan dan dibiarkan selama setahun dan hanya dapat menjalankan ak@vi@ pertanian pada tahun 2014. Masalah ini jika @dak ditangani dengan segera, ia akan menyebabkan hasil padi berkurangan sebanyak 30,000 tan semusim dan ini memberi impak kepada pengeluaran beras negara.
Sumber / Source : Bernama nov 2012
TANAH JERLUS / TANAH LEMBUT DI WILAYAH MADA
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• In general, Malaysia could be considered as a free zone from climate related disaster. However, mild climate related disasters are quite frequent to happen lately.
• These refer to the occurrence of floods and droughts that caused significant socio-‐economic impacts to the na@on
• The occurrence of landslides due to excessive rainfall and strong winds happened at the hilly and the laher, at the coastal areas caused minimal damage.
VULNERABILITY
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PERANGKAAN UTAMA PADI DAN BERAS MENGIKUT SEMUA MUSIM, 2000 – 2010, KAWASAN JELAPANG PADI
No. Tahun Keluasan Bertanam
Hektar
Purata Hasil Kilogram/Hektar
Pengeluaran Padi Tan
Pengeluaran Beras Tan
1 2000 391,012 3,749 1,465,735 952,728
2 2001 375,116 3,833 1,437,659 934,478
3 2002 382,355 3,904 1,492,818 970,332
4 2003 342,349 3,360 1,566,000 1,017,900
5 2004 340,529 3,434 1,531,000 995,150
6 2005 321,816 3,471 1,587,000 1,031,550
7 2006 387,312 3,771 1,460,473 949,308
8 2007 386,592 4,207 1,626,449 1,057,192
9 2008 384,145 4,249 1,632,407 1,061,065
10 2009 391,625 4,646 1,819,406 1,182,614
11 2010 387,160 4,540 1,757,575 1,142,423
Sumber / Source : Jabatan Pertanian Malaysia / Department of Agriculture, Malaysia
PERANGKAAN UTAMA PADI DAN BERAS MENGIKUT SEMUA MUSIM, 2000 – 2010, KAWASAN JELAPANG PADI
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IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE
• In agriculture, one of the mahers that affected con@nuously is flood. (big flood 2007)
• Flooding can be defined as any area of land covered by water which is normally dry. Some@mes water levels can rise slowly and unno@ced. Other @me, flooded can be rapid, sudden and unexpected.
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IMPACT
• Second maher related to extreme climate change is droughts. (dry period between June to October oken stretch the water supply for off season rice plan@ng)
• A drought can be defined as a con@nuous and long period in which rainfall is significantly below the average expected for a region at that @me of year.
• (longer dry period in the northern – favour Harum Manis Mango produc@on)
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IMPACT • According to official projec@ons, increasing in temperature and changes in rainfall pahern could affect yields directly.
• Increased in temperature and changes in rainfall pahern could fasten the spread of fungus and diseases directly or indirectly ( e.g Phytopthora sp in rubber planta@on), thus affec@ng yield.
• The most vulnerable to these changes are the northern Peninsular Malaysia as well as the coastal of Sabah and Sarawak.
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IMPACT • The impacts on agricultural differ from one to the other. Climate
change signifies by decrease in rainfall will affected crops that need wet condi@ons such as paddy, vegetables and others.
• Rice grain yields also may decline by 9 to 10% for each 1 degree Celsius rise. Prolonged droughts make it impossible to sustain the flooded rice ecosystem and it will jeopardize security of food supply.
• Prolonged rainfall will also affect the sunshine hours. Thus, affec@ng yield of crop (e.g. rice grain filling).
• Meanwhile, the rising in sea level due to climate change could force
the abandoning of low-‐lying planted areas such as paddy, corn, coconut and others. (also cause salt water intrusion)
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ADAPATION • The use of AgroclimaYc ClassificaYon in agricultural
planning. • The Department of Agriculture draked an agroclima@c map
of Peninsular Malaysia based on the agriculture rainfall index (ARI) in 1990. Ten agroclima@c (ARI) zones were iden@fied according to the number of consecu@ve dry and consecu@ve wet months. The agroclima@c maps defined the various regions according to the varia@ons in environmental requirements of different crops as well as on the regional differences of the natural environment, par@cularly climate and soils.
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ADAPTATION
The use of Soil Suitability Criteria for crop producYon Physical and chemical proper@es of the soil affect crop produc@on. Soil depth, texture, clay frac@on, soil structure, bulk density and available soil moisture are among the major soil physical proper@es that affect crop produc@on. Soil reac@on, ca@on exchange capacity and nutrient composi@on are the soil chemical proper@es, important in crop produc@on. By considering these proper@es in soil suitability classifica@on, the success of a crop produc@on endeavour can be ensured with a reasonable margin of safety.
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Others Adapta@on Measures
ü Develop plant varie@es that are tolerant to high temperatures and high water use efficiency
ü Preserve Permanent Forest Reserves and water catchment areas to ensure adequate water supply for agriculture
ü Strengthen agricultural extension services (soil conserva@on measure and produc@on efficiency)
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Others Adapta@on Measures
ü Strengthen Integrated Pest Management (IPM) and biocontrol procedures to deal incidences of pest and diseases
ü Improve regional and interna@onal coopera@on on agriculture-‐ climate change related issues
ü Introduce agriculture insurance to minimize risk related to climate change
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THANK YOU
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IN BRIEF
• Climate component press
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Climate change in Malaysia (Mahmudul Alam et al. 2013)
• According to the United Na@onsDevelopment Report, carbon dioxide emissions in Malaysia increased by 221% during the period of 1990 to 2004,
• the country is included in the list of 30 biggest greenhouse gas emihers.
• Curb Global Warming (2007) quoted from the Associated Press (AP) that rapid growth in emissions has occurred even though Malaysia ra@fied the Kyoto Protocol and has taken several ini@a@ves to use renewable energy as well as ways to cut emissions.
• Currently Malaysia ranks as the 26th largest greenhouse gas emiher in the world with a popula@on of about 27 million, and it appears likely to move up the list quickly due to the growth rate of emissions.
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• The clima@c change causes change in several agriculture relevant factors that determine the sustainability of agricultural produc@on.
• Farmers believe that vulnerability of some of the factors like – injurious insects (supported by 42.9% of the farmers), – temperature (supports by 58.6% of the farmers), – soil fer@lity loss (supports by 49.5% of the farmers), – cost of inputs (supports by 61.1% of the farmers), – shortage of rainfall (supports by 45.5% of the farmers), – excessive rainfall (supports by 35.9% farmers) increased over the last 5 years (Alam et al., 2011b).
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