VGEF 2015: The Future of Transportation (JB Straubel, CTO, Tesla Motors Inc)
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Transcript of VGEF 2015: The Future of Transportation (JB Straubel, CTO, Tesla Motors Inc)
Future of Transportation SessionJB Straubel
CTO, co-founderMar 15th, 2015
Corporate Overview
Headquarters Palo Alto, CA Tesla Factory Fremont, CA
EU Assembly Tilburg, NLDesign Studio Hawthorne, CA
Company Founded
Roadster Prototype
Roadster Production Launch
Nasdaq IPOPurchase Tesla Fremont Plant
N. America Model S Introduction
EU Model S Introduction
AWD Model S Launch50,000+ Total Vehicles Delivered11,000+ employees
2003
2006
2012
2013
2008
2010
2015
Oil Price: $~30/barrel
• Lead-acid technology was still status quo in 1995• Performance had stagnated
Short lifespan Very heavy Short range
Lithium ion Made Possible: 4 X gravimetric energy density 6 X volumetric energy density 3 X cycle life
Battery History
Industry first Lithium Ion EV Powertrain
4 -
Controls and Software
Power Electronics Module
(DC-AC Inverter, Charger)
53 kWh Lithium ion battery pack
250hp AC Induction Motor and
Gearbox
A New Idea in 2004:Performance Electric Cars
Focus on Energy Storage Design and Cost
Ground-up design as EV-only (Model S/X)Optimal packaging, safety and performanceHigh energy density leads to lower cost
85 kWh BatteryPack
AWD Dual Motor Platform Improved efficiency and torque distribution in Model S 85DTight integration of power electronics control with energy storage
Model SPerformance
3.2s (P85D, dual motor sport)Driving range
265 miles (US EPA rating)Advanced range capabilities
20 minute DC fast charge capability (10-60%)
“Better than anything we’ve ever tested”“99 out of 100 points”
Always Connected Glass Cockpit
An Electronics and Software Culture• Core focus and Tesla DNA• Battery voltage management• Motor Control• Diagnostics• Touchscreen• Mobile App• Traction and Stability Control• Autopilot
• Complete Over the Air Updates
Connected Vehicle Fleet
• 1,000,000+ Tesla Vehicles x 10kW On-Board Charger• 75 GWh of energy storage• 10 GW Controllable Charging Load
• 50,000+ cumulative Model S vehicles• 5 GWh of deployed energy storage
Today
2019
• Tesla Supercharger Network135 kW power (300-415VDC)0-50% SOC in 20 minutes
• Free long-range driving for Model S customers
EV Infrastructure – Tesla Supercharger
Superchargers Today (Tesla web Site “find us”)
Vehi
cle
Affor
dabi
lity
Market Size / Timing
Tesla Model S Tesla Model X
Second Generation Platform
Tesla Roadster
First Generation
Model 3 Platform
Tesla Model 3 Sedan & Crossover
Product Roadmap – Growing EV Volume
Tesla Roadster
GM EV1Volu
met
ric E
nerg
y D
ensi
ty [W
h/l]
600
500
400
300
200
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year
2010 2015 2020
Model S
700
Model 3
Battery Energy Density Trend
800
Vehi
cle
Affor
dabi
lity
Market Size / Timing
Tesla Model S Tesla Model X
Second Generation Platform
Tesla Roadster
First Generation
Model 3 Platform
Tesla Model 3 Sedan & Crossover
Product Roadmap – Growing EV Volume
500,000 VehiclesGlobal cell supply
growing, but almost entirely in Asia
Planned 2020 Gigafactory Production Exceeds 2013 Global Production
Battery pack cost/kWh reduced >30% for Model 3
35,000 Vehicles
GW
h/Ye
ar P
rodu
ctio
n
Tesla Battery Gigafactory
Module
Cathode Manufacturing
Aluminum Foil
CathodeElectrode
AnodeElectrode
SeparatorManufacturing Separator Winding
Cell
Asse
mbl
y
Anode Manufacturing
CopperFoil
Raw
Mat
eria
ls
Cell
Cell
Cell
…
Pack
Module
Module
Module
…
PackEnclosure
Vehicle Assembly(Fremont, CA)
Can & Cap
Battery Pack Lifetime Usage
Battery PackRecycling
Raw Steel/Aluminum
Electrolyte Manufacturing
Gigafactory Process Flow
Product Line Automotive Residential Commercial
Power/Energy 310 kW / 85 kWh 5 kW / 10 kWh 200 kW / 400 kWh+
ListedOutdoor Rated
Stationary Energy Storage Product Derivatives
The Ideal Solution?
Q: What PV area is required to offset 100% ofPassenger car miles driven in the USA?1
Photovoltaic
1. 1.658 x 1012 miles in 2002 (DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics)2. cia.gov
1. Battery costs will continue to decline faster than most predictions driven by steady technology improvement and economies of scale
Future Transportation Predictions
2. Nearly all ground vehicles will evolve toward battery electric vehicles as battery costs drop (hybrids -> plug in hybrids -> Evs)
5. The growing EV fleet will integrate with growing (intermittent) renewables on the grid to allow 100% non-carbon energy for electricity and transportation
3. Bulk battery energy storage on the grid will grow rapidly and further accelerate battery cost reduction and scale increase
4. 95% autonomous, connected vehicles will become the new norm improving safety, efficiency and utility
“The stone age came to an end not for lack of stonesAnd the oil age will come to an end not for lack of oil”
— Sheikh Yamani, former Saudi Oil Minister