VF Trends1 Soc 695 Family Violence Research In World Perspective Murray A. Straus TRENDS AND OUTLOOK...
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Transcript of VF Trends1 Soc 695 Family Violence Research In World Perspective Murray A. Straus TRENDS AND OUTLOOK...
VF Trends 1
Soc 695 Family Violence Research In World Perspective Murray A. Straus
TRENDS AND OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTUREPREVALENCE OF FAMILY VIOLENCE
• Are child abuse and partner abuse increasing?• Why does the public think crime is increasing?• What explains the trends?• What are the implications of these explanations for
individuals and for society?
VF Trends 3
REPORTED AND CONFIRMED CASES OF
CHILD ABUSE, IRELAND 1984-1997
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
15 TIMES MORE CASES IN 1997.
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS: “AN EPIDEMIC OF CHILD ABUSE”
ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATION?
VF Trends 4
• Severe: hitting a child with a belt, paddle, hairbrush on buttocks.• Very Severe: hit with object on some other part of the body, kick, punch, choke, burn. Which showed the biggest decrease?
• Severe140 – 55 = 85 85/140 = 61% decrease
• Very Severe35 – 5 = 3030/35 = 86% decrease
VF Trends 7
TO MAKE SENSE OUT OF THE TRENDSREQUIRES DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN AN
INTERVENTION RATE AND A PREVALENCE RATE
Intervention Rate = Cases known to service providers. Example: crime rates based on police calls, child abuse rates based on cases reported to Child Protective Services
Prevalence Rate = Cases known on the basis of data for the population in general.
Example: National Crime Victimization Survey, National Family Violence Surveys
Can Lead To Different Conclusions: "Once partner violence starts, it continues or escalates"
VF Trends 8
TRENDS IN CHILD SEXUAL ABUSE CASES KNOWN TO CHILD PROTECTIVE SERVICES
1970 – 1980: TREMENDOUS INCREASES – 10% PER YEAR
1992 – 2002: 44% DECREASE (Finkelhor & Jones, 2004). Similar decreases in other countriesCanadaGreat BritainSwedenAustraliaNew ZealandSpainIsrael
COULD REFLECT CHANGE IN PUBLIC WILLINGNESS TO REPORT OR AGENCY WILLINGNESS TO CONFIRM
NEED FOR INDEPENDENT DATA FROM EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SURVEYS
VF Trends 10
RATES STILL EXTREMELY HIGH(Annual Prevalence)
•PHYSICALLY ABUSED CHILDREN Number per YearCases known to State Agencies: 500,000Cases uncovered in NFV surveys: 1,500,000
PHYSICALLY ABUSED WOMEN Cases reported in NVAW surveys: 1,300,000Cases reported in NFV surveys: 6.000,000
VF Trends 11
VIOLENCE AGAINST PARTNERS:
HUGE INCREASE IN CASES OF KNOWN TO SERVICE PROVIDERS
SHELTERS FOR BATTERED WOMENFirst one in 1973More every yearNow over 2,000
POLICE REPORTS OF FAMILY VIOLENCEClimbed every year from 1980
VF Trends 12
UNH NATIONAL FAMILY VIOLENCE SURVEYS FOUND LARGE DECREASE IN PV BY MEN, BUT NOT BY WOMEN
This article was named a “citation classic”
WHY SO FREQUENTLY CITED?
TO CRITICIZE AND DENOUNCE
Example: Richard Berk: "Given all we know about the pattern of crime statistics, a 47% drop is so unprecedented as to be unbelievable. Never before has there beena drop of that magnitude, that rapidly.“But, contrary to Berk, other crime rateshave changed that much and that fast. Homicide rate, for example, increased by over 100% between 1963 and 1973WHAT HAVE OTHER STUDIES SINCE THEN FOUND?
VF Trends 14
ILLUSTRATIONS OF HUGE INCREASES THAT REFLECTDOING MORE ABOUT THE PROBLEM (intervention rate), NOT AN INCREASE IN THE PROBLEM (prevalence rate)
CHILD ABUSE IN FLORIDA
• Before the mandatory reporting and a hotline, there are about 1,000 cases
• The year after the hotline was established there were 9,000
DOMESTIC ABUSE HOTLINE FOR MEN
• In the first year (2000) there was about a call a day
• In 2004 there were about 7 per day -- a seven-fold increase
VF Trends 15
Partner Violence by Both Men And Women has Decresed ( NCVS)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0V
icti
miz
ati
on
s p
er
1000
pe
op
le
Female Perpetrators 42% decrease
Male Perpetrators 49% decrease
Rennison, 2003
VF Trends 17
RATES STILL EXTREMELY HIGH(Annual Prevalence)
•PHYSICALLY ABUSED CHILDREN Number per YearCases known to State Agencies: 500,000Cases uncovered in NFV surveys: 1,500,000
PHYSICALLY ABUSED WOMEN Cases reported in NVAW surveys: 1,300,000Cases reported in NFV surveys: 6.000,000
VF Trends 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1970 1980 1990 2000
TREND IN FAMILY VIOLENCE CASES KNOWN TO SERVICE PROVIDERS AND AS FOUND BY
EPIDEMOLOGICAL SURVEYS
Service Provider Data(An Intervention Rate)
Epidemiological Data (A Prevalence Rate)
Rate of Family Violence(Hypoth-etical)
WHY THIS HUGE INCREASE?Intervention effort – casefinding
WHY THE DECREASE NOW ?Decrease in prevalence is now greater than new case finding. WHY?
VF Trends 19
WHY DOES THE PUBLIC THINKFAMILY VIOLENCE AND OTHER CRIME IS
INCREASING?
• Rates did increase for 20 years• Press coverage has increased• Intervention rates taken as prevalence rates• Advocacy groups for family violence victims
continually talk about “epidemics” which public interprets as “increase”
• Rising public expectations for quality of life make the cases more disturbing
VF Trends 23
EXPLANATION #2: INTERVENTIONS TO LOWER CHILD ABUSE AND PARTNER VIOLENCE
• Public awareness & education * Take Back The Night * TV dramas
• Hot lines• Shelters• Home visiting programs• School abuse prevention programs • Increased efforts at case detection by
Pediatricians, Teachers, school nurses, others• Presumptive arrest policy• More Prosecution• Batterer treatment programs• Incarceration
VF Trends 24
THE RESULT: THE TYPES OF FAMILY VIOLENCE THAT HAVE BEEN THE FOCUS OF PREVENTION EFFORTS DECREASED THE MOST
VF Trends 30
EXPLANATION #5CHANGES IN FAMILY
COMPOSITION AND ORGANIZATION
• Later age at marriage
• Later age at first child (for people marring at the same age)
• Fewer children
• Greater acceptability of divorce
WHY DO THESE CHANGES LOWER CHILD ABUSE AND PARTNER VIOLENCE
VF Trends 32
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Certainty Score
Males Females
PROBABILITY OF ASSAULTING A PARTNER BY PERCEIVED PROBABILITY OF BEING ARRESTED (Ramirez, 2003)
EXPLANATION #6: THE RULE OF LAW COMES TO THE FAMILY
NEW LAWS AND POLICE POLICY
VF Trends 34
BETTER EDUCATED PARENTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO BELIEVE THAT"WHEN A BOY IS GROWING UP, IT IS IMPORTANT FOR HIM
TO HAVE A FEW FISTFIGHTS"
IN 1968, 75% OF THE ADULT POPULATION AGREED1995 GALLUP DISCIPLINE SURVEY (N=1000)CP\CHARTS\RATES\AGE95G2
EXPLANATION #8
BETTER EDUCATEDPOPULAT-ION
EDUCATED PEOPLE ARE MORE LIKELY TO REALIZE THAT FEW THINGS HAVE SIMPLE CAUSES AND SIMPLE SOLUTIONS – LIKE HITTING
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
.
NOT H.S
. GRAD
H.S. G
RADUATE
SOME C
OLLEGE
COLLEGE GRAD
POST GRAD
.
VF Trends 37
THESE ARE JUST NINE OF THE MANY INTERRELATED CHANGES MAKING FOR A LESS
VIOLENT WORLD, INCLUDING LESS FAMILY VIOLENCE
• Historical trend away from personal violence• Application of the rule of law to the family• Change in cultural norms tolerating family violence• Programs to end child abuse, wife beating, bullying• Growth in equality between men and women• Other changes in family composition and organization• Decrease in use of corporal punishment• Better educated population• Less economic stress
MANY OTHER FACTORS, for example, tremendous growth in family counseling and therapy
OVERALL: The civilization effect
VF Trends 38
THE FUTURE OF FAMILY VIOLENCE
• PREDICTING THE FUTURE IS ALWAYS RISKYParking lots in New York
• ALL FORMS OF FAMILY VIOLENCE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASEFOR THE SAME REASONS AS THE PAST DECLINE
• THERE WILL BE UPS AND DOWNS AROUND THE TREND LINESome groups may experience increases, such as those suffered
by inner city families during the crack cocaine epidemic• THE BENEFITS WILL BE ENORMOUS
* For individuals, less: mental illness, unhappy marriages, divorce, higher IQ, more education, better job performance, etc, etc.
* For society, Lower: rates of all types of crime, lower costs for criminal justice and welfare, higher economic productivity, etc.
A HEALTHIER, WEALTHIER, AND WISER SOCIEITY