VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010

VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010

3D Relative Risk Profile ComparisonPotential Grounding Oil Loss

Dr. J. Rene van Dorp and Dr. Jason R.W Merrick

11/21/2013 1 GW-VCU

November 2013

CASE U: GW – KM – DP & Additional Variability of Case T What-If Focus Vessel ArrivalsDraft

T: GW - KM - DP 3D Risk Profile All FV - Pot. Ground. Oil Loss: 159% of Base Case PGO

23-24 22-23

21-22 20-21

19-20 18-19

17-18 16-17

15-16 14-15

13-14 12-13

11-12 10-11

9-10 8-9

7-8 6-7

5-6 4-5

3-4 2-3

1-2 0-111/21/2013 2 GW-VCU


Draft

U : GW - KM - DP & VAR 3D Risk Profile All FV - Pot. Ground. Oil Loss: 159% of Base Case PGO

23-24 22-23

21-22 20-21

19-20 18-19

17-18 16-17

15-16 14-15

13-14 12-13

11-12 10-11

9-10 8-9

7-8 6-7

5-6 4-5

3-4 2-3

1-2 0-1


11/21/2013 3 GW-VCU

Draft

11/21/2013 4 GW-VCU


POTENTIAL GROUNDINGOIL LOSS - PGO

Draft

11/21/2013 5 GW-VCU



Draft

T: GW - KM - DP 3D Risk Profile What-If FV - Pot. Grou. Oil Loss: 61% of Base Case PGO

23-24 22-23

21-22 20-21

19-20 18-19

17-18 16-17

15-16 14-15

13-14 12-13

11-12 10-11

9-10 8-9

7-8 6-7

5-6 4-5

3-4 2-3

1-2 0-111/21/2013 6 GW-VCU


Draft

U : GW - KM - DP & VAR 3D Risk Profile What-If FV - Pot. Grou. Oil Loss: 57% of Base Case PGO

23-24 22-23

21-22 20-21

19-20 18-19

17-18 16-17

15-16 14-15

13-14 12-13

11-12 10-11

9-10 8-9

7-8 6-7

5-6 4-5

3-4 2-3

1-2 0-111/21/2013 7 GW-VCU


Draft

11/21/2013 8 GW-VCU



Draft

11/21/2013 9 GW-VCU



Draft

DEFINITION OF 15 WATERWAY ZONES

65

7

8

9

15

43

1

213

10

11

12

1. Buoy J2. ATBA3. WSJF4. ESJF5. Rosario6. Guemes7. Saddlebag8. Georgia Str.

9. Haro/Boun.10.PS North11.PS South12.Tacoma13.Sar/Skagit14.SJ Islands15.Islands Trt

VTRA 2010 Waterway Zones

14

11/21/2013 10 GW-VCU


Draft

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.5%

0.5%

5.7%

6.6%

7.7%

10.9%

11.1%

11.1%

12.2%

16.2%

27.2%

49.1%

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.5%

5.5%

7.3%

7.8%

11.0%

10.9%

11.9%

12.8%

18.9%

25.7%

46.2%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

Buoy J : 0.0% | x 0.97ATBA : 0.0% | x 0.92

Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.03SJ Islands : -0.1% | x 0.69Tac. South : 0.0% | x 0.95

WSJF : -0.2% | x 0.96Georgia Str. : +0.7% | x 1.10Islands Trt : +0.1% | x 1.01

PS North : +0.1% | x 1.01PS South : -0.2% | x 0.98Guemes : +0.7% | x 1.07Rosario : +0.6% | x 1.05

Saddlebag : +2.7% | x 1.17ESJF : -1.4% | x 0.95

Haro/Boun. : -2.9% | x 0.94

% Base Case Grounding Oil Loss (GOL) - ALL_FV

% Base Case Grounding Oil Loss - ALL_FV

U : GW - KM - DP & VAR : 159% ( 0% | x 1.00) T: GW - KM - DP : 159%

11/21/2013 11 GW-VCU

++0%

Waterway Zone:


Draft

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.2%

0.0%

1.6%

1.9%

2.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.7%

0.4%

16.4%

37.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.2%

0.0%

1.5%

2.3%

2.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.8%

0.5%

14.7%

34.5%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%

Buoy J : +0.0% | x 1.13ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.40

Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.49SJ Islands : -0.1% | x 0.69

Tac. South : +0.0% | x 1.04WSJF : -0.1% | x 0.92

Georgia Str. : +0.4% | x 1.24Islands Trt : +0.0% | x 1.02

PS North : +0.0% | x 1.08PS South : 0.0% | x 0.98Guemes : 0.0% | x 0.96

Rosario : +0.1% | x 1.08Saddlebag : +0.0% | x 1.02

ESJF : -1.6% | x 0.90Haro/Boun. : -3.2% | x 0.92

% Base Case Grounding Oil Loss (GOL) - WhatIf

% Base Case Grounding Oil Loss - WhatIf

U : GW - KM - DP & VAR : 57% ( -4% | x 0.93) T: GW - KM - DP : 61%

11/21/2013 12 GW-VCU

+-4%

Waterway Zone:


Draft

VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2010

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