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` Equation:

In which:` A: trade-attractive/restrictive coefficient` Tij : traded value between country i and country j` Y i ; Y j : size of the economies of country i and

country j respectively` DIS ij :distance between two countries

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Factors Trend of impacts

Previous papers

Factors relating to demand and supplyGDP generalised fromGDP of both import and export countries

Positive T Thy Anh and o Nguyn Th ng (2008), Do Thai Tri (2006),o Ng c Ti n (2009),Tiiu Paas (2000),N guy n Thanh Th y and

Jean-Louis Arcand (2009)

GDP of exporting country Positive Cline Carrere (2003),H. Mikael Sandberg (2004),InmaculadaMa rtnez-Zarzosoand Felicitas Nowak -Lehmann D. (2003),

GDP of importing country Positive Cline Carrere (2003), H.Mikael Sandberg (2004), InmaculadaMa rtnez-Zarzosoand Felicitas Nowak -Lehmann D. (2003)

Population generalised from population of both

import and export countries

Positive o Ng c Ti n (2009), Do Thai Tri (2006),

Population of exportingcountry

Positive

Negative

K. Doanh Nguyen and Yoon Heo (2009)and H. Mikael Sandberg (2004)Inmaculada Ma rtnez-Zarzoso and Felicitas Nowak -Lehmann D.(2003), Jacob A. Bikk er (2009)

Population of importingcountry

Negative Inmaculada Ma rtnez-Zarzoso and Felicitas Nowak -Lehmann D.(2003), Cline Carrere (2003), Jacob A. Bikk er (2009)

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` Most of them do not evaluate separately the G DP (population) of import and export economies .

` Most of them are for total export, and do not care

specific characteristics of different products .` Some are not agreed at some points` Some is at product level but not for the case of

Vietnam

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` Total export: increased with very high growth rate(>22%), contribute more than 60% in G DP

` P roduct level (use SITC clasification)

P rimary Manufactured

SITC 5: Chemicals and relatedproductsSITC 6: Manufactured goods

classified chiefly by materialSITC 7: Machinery and transportequipment

SITC 8: Miscellaneousmanufactured articles .

SITC 0: Food and live animals

SITC 1 : Beverages and tobacco

SITC 2: Crude materials, inedible,except fuels

SITC 3: Mineral fuels, lubricants andrelated materials

SITC 4: Animal and vegetable oils,

fats and waxes

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% Primary products

SITC 0:Foodand liveanimals

SITC 2: Crudematerials, inedible, ex

cept fuelsSITC 3:Miner alfuels, lubricantsandrelated materials

Source: Constructed by authors basing on data collected from GCO (2010)

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Source: Constructed by authors basing on data collected from GCO (2010)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

%

Year

Manuf actured products

SITC 5: Chemicals andrelated products

SITC 6:Manuf acturedgoods classified chiefly bymaterialSITC 7:Machineryandtr ansport equipment

SITC 8:Miscellaneousmanuf acturedarticles.

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` GDP growth of importing partner countries` GDP of Vietnam` P opulation of importing partner countries` P opulation of Vietnam` Bilateral trade agreement that is effective and free

trade area that Vietnam joined` Exchange rate policy` Infrastructure for transportation` Economic differences from partner countries

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1. GDP growth of Vietnam influences the export of manufactured products more vigorously than that of primary products

2 . Free trade agreements have different impacts onexport of different product groups

3 . An increase in real exchange rate (depreciation of Vietnam Dong) has positive but different impacts onexport of different product groups

4 . Economic distance has strong positive effects onexport of different product groups Vietnamese tradeis in accordance with H O theory

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O riginal model:

Transform to linear model:

Adjusted model:

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In the period from 2004 to 2008 for 6 1 partner countries based on availability of all these

following data:

` The value of export: from Vietnam General Custom O ffice and generalized

7 groups of SI TC classification: SI TC 0; 2; 3; 5; 6; 7 ; 8

SI TC 1 and SI TC 4 are excluded

2 bigger groups: primary and manufactured product groups

` GDP; GDP per capital in current US D , and population: from World data bank .

` Bilateral and free trade area is collected by different sources .

` Geographical distance is from o Ng c Ti n (2010)

` Exchange rate: http://www .ers .usda .gov/ Data/Macroeconomics/

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` Hypothesis 1 : Vietnams G DP is a little bitsignificant in explaining the growth of export valueof the product in SITC 5 ; 6 ; 7 ; 8 while it is not

significant in the case of SITC 3 in particular andprimary group in general` Reason: industrial structure of economy

SI TC 0 SI TC 2 SI TC 3 SI TC 5 SI TC 6 SI TC 7 SI TC 8Primaryproduct group

Manufacturedproduct group

Coefficient 60.63* 58.9 .5 60.85* 57.97* 82.67** 59.09* 56.03* 66.23*

z v alue ( .77) ( .32) ( .36) ( .76) ( .75) (2.3 ) ( .73) ( .64) ( .82)

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` Hypothesis 2: BTA and FTA have positive impactson all product is not totally reasonable:

BTA and FTA have positive impacts in the case of SITC3 ; 5 ; 7 (Reason: few non tariff barriers)Not significant in the case of others

SI TC 0 SI TC 2 SI TC 3 SI TC 5 SI TC 6 SI TC 7 SI TC 8Primaryproduct group

Manufacturedproduct group

Coefficient 2. 6 2. 7.09*** 4.28*** 2.53* 4.7 *** .76 2.67* 2.29z v al ( .39) ( .04) (4.9) (2.74) ( .68) (2.9) ( . 3) ( .73) ( .48

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` Hypothesis 3: Reasonable` Depreciation of Vietnam dong makes export value

of different groups of Vietnam increasing

differently:More remarkably for manufacture case than for primarycaseHowever, it is not significant in case of SITC 3

Reason: the elasticities of demand for those goods respectto price are different

SI TC 0 SI TC 2 SI TC 3 SI TC 5 SI TC 6 SI TC 7 SI TC 8Primaryproduct group

Manufacturedproduct group

Coefficient 74.53** 64.3 43.08* 72.75** 72.2** 89.9*** 70.28** 66.52* 72.35**z v alue (2. ) ( .4) ( .7) (2.05) (2. 2) (2.45) (2) ( .89) (2.09)

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` Hypothesis 4: Reasonable` Vietnam trade in H O model` Reason: low technology level not suitable for the

new trade theory of economies of scale .

SI TC 0 SI TC 2 SI TC 3 SI TC 5 SI TC 6 SI TC 7 SI TC 8Primaryproduct group

Manufacturedproduct group

Coefficient 5.05*** 6.9 *** 0. 2.6 ** 2.42** 2. 9* 4.45*** 5.54*** 4.63***z v alue (4.02) (3.79) (0.03) (2.05) (2) ( .63) (3.58) (4.42) (3.54)

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` GDP of import partner and P opulation of Vietnamdo not affect on export value of all product groups

` P opulation of importing countries have a little

positive effect on all groups with the level of impacts decreasing in the order of: SITC 0 ; SITC2 ; SITC8

Reason: some are necessary goods and some are inputof production with high labor-intensity

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` D istance cause negative impacts on export of allgroups with the higher level in primary case thanin manufacture case

Reason: Deterioration characteristics of somegoods

` Border cause positive impacts on export of allgroups with the higher level in manufacture case

than in primary caseReason: Similarity in culture and tradition

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` P romote supply of export product: transform

industrial structure, enhance labor productivity,

moving export product .` Adjust exporting destination. Have different

market structure strategy for each group .

` Manage exchange rate and international

cooperation policies accurately

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