3.1.1 Baseline Study Area 3.1.2 Methodology of Baseline Study
VCCJA Baseline Recidivism Study
description
Transcript of VCCJA Baseline Recidivism Study
National Center for State Courts
VCCJA Baseline Recidivism Study
Fred Cheesman, Ph.D.Tara Kunkel, MSW
The National Center for State Courts
August 16, 2013
National Center for State Courts
Purpose of the Study
To complete a baseline outcome evaluation of all Community Corrections probationers who completed
supervision in FY04.
National Center for State Courts
Key Questions for the Baseline Study
• What was the demographic profile of probationers who completed Community Corrections supervision in FY04?
• Did the probationers being supervised in FY04 by the 20 sites that would become the EBP sites differ demographically from the probationers supervised in the non-EBP sites in a statistically meaningful way?
• What was the average length of supervision in FY04?
• By offense category and offense level, what were the placement charges for the FY04 completers?
• What was the average number of office contacts per probationer for the FY04 completers?
National Center for State Courts
Key Questions for the Baseline Study
• What services were local probationers ordered to complete in FY04?
• What were the case closure types for local probationers whose cases were closed in FY04? If unsuccessful, why?
• What percentage of FY04 local probation completers were re-arrested or received a new conviction while under supervision?
• What percentage of FY04 local probation completers were re-arrested or received a new conviction post-program three years from exit date?
National Center for State Courts
Key Questions for the Baseline Study
• What types of new offenses were committed by local probationers after exiting in FY04?
• What, if anything, predicted whether a probationer would complete local probation supervision successfully in FY04?
• What, if anything, predicted whether a probationer would be convicted of a new crime post-program in FY04?
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Sample Size
Approximately 33,655 probationers in the total sample (# of defendants whose cases were closed in FY04)
For the recidivism analysis a smaller group was studied4,705 probationers
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Baseline Question 1
What was the demographic profile of probationers who completed Community Corrections supervision in FY04?
National Center for State Courts
Age of FY04 Case Closures
< 21 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 >600.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
22.9%
37.5%
21.0%
13.5%
4.0%
1.1%
Average age = 30 years old
N = 29,072
National Center for State Courts
Race of FY04 Case Closures
Asian Black Hispanic Native American White Other/Unknown0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0.8%
41.1%
3.6%
0.1%
53.3%
1.1%
N = 33,655
National Center for State Courts
Marital Status of FY04 Case Closures
Married Separated Divorced Widowed Never Married0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
20.1%
7.1% 7.9%
1.0%
64.0%
N = 33,555
National Center for State Courts
Last Grade Completed – FY04 Case Closures
Less
Than H
igh S
choo
l
9th G
rade
10th
Grade
11th
Grade
12th
Grade
GED
Trade S
choo
l
1 Yea
r Coll
ege
2 Yea
rs Coll
ege
3 Yea
rs Coll
ege
Colleg
e Grad
uate
Gradua
te Edu
catio
n0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
6.4%4.9%
9.0%
12.5%
38.0%
7.6%
0.9%
6.7% 6.8%
3.1% 3.5%
0.7%
N = 33,518
National Center for State Courts
Prior Convictions – FY04 Case Closures
Prior Misdemeanor Convictions Prior Felony Convictions Any Prior Convictions0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
37.4%
14.8%
40.4%
National Center for State Courts
Average # of Prior Convictions - FY04 Case Closures
Average # of Prior Misdemeanor Convictions Average # of Prior Felony Convictions0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.41
0.45
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Baseline Question 2
Did probationers being supervised in FY04 by what would become the 20 EBP sites differ demographically from probationers being supervised by the non-EBP sites?
National Center for State Courts
Baseline Question #2
QualityEvidence-Based Practice
SitesNon-EBP
SitesDifference
(EBP – Non-EBP)Female (%) 26.17% 26.90% -0.73%
Asian (%) 0.89% 0.56% 0.33%
Black (%) 39.15% 43.99% -4.84%
Hispanic (%) 3.78% 3.41% 0.37%
Native American (%) 0.10% 0.07% 0.02%
White (%) 55.03% 50.71% 4.32%
Race and Ethnicity Unknown/Other (%) 1.06% 1.26% -0.20%
Age(Average) 29.36 30.41 -1.05
There were no statistically significant differences in the demographics between the EBP sites and the non-EBP sites in the FY04 sample.
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Baseline Question 3
What was the average length of supervision for probationers who completed supervision in FY04?
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Baseline Question 3
Average length of supervision for the entire sample:
8.6 months
Average length of supervision for a successful probationer: 8.2 months
Average length of supervision for an unsuccessful probationer: 9.4 months
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Baseline Question 4
By offense category and offense level, what were the placement charges for the FY04 probation completers?
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Placement Type by Offense Level
Felony Misdemeanor0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
7%
93%
N = 28,969N = 2,184
National Center for State Courts
Placement Offenses - Misdemeanors
Person Offense Property Offense Drug Offense Public Order Offense Technical Offense Driving Offense Other Offense0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
29%
18%
26%
10%11%
6%
0%
N = 8,327 N = 5,121 N = 7,564 N =1,707N = 2,878
N = 3,263 N =110
National Center for State Courts
Placement Offenses - Felonies
Person
Offe
nse
Propert
y Offe
nse
Drug O
ffens
e
Public
Orde
r Offe
nse
Techn
ical O
ffens
e
Driving
Offe
nse
Other O
ffens
e0.0%
200.0%
400.0%
600.0%
800.0%
1000.0%
1200.0%
Person Offense Property Offense Drug Offense Public Order Offense Technical Offense Driving Offense Other Offense0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
16%
27%
42%
4%
10%
0% 0%
N = 352
N = 580N = 352 N = 919N = 95
N = 225 N = 4 N = 10
National Center for State Courts
Baseline Question 5
What was the average number of office contacts per probationer for the FY04 completers?
National Center for State Courts
Baseline Question 5
Average number of office contacts for successful
completers: 8.9 contacts
Average number of office contacts for unsuccessful completers: 10.6 contacts
NOTE: Data quality was questionable with some sites not documenting this information in FY04.
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Baseline Question 6
What services were probationers ordered to complete in FY04?
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Court-Ordered Conditions in FY04
Anger
Manag
emen
t
Battere
r's G
roup
Commun
ity S
ervice
Electro
nic M
onito
ring
Financ
ial R
espo
nsibi
lity C
lass
Other
Sex O
ffend
er Txt
Shopli
fters
Group
SA Ass
essm
ent o
r Txt
Drug/A
lcoho
l Tes
ting
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
13.9%11.0%
51.9%
0.1% 1.3%
14.2%
0.5%3.0%
22.3%
29.5%
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Baseline Question 7
What were the case closure types for local probationers whose cases were closed in FY04? If unsuccessful, why?
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Case Closure by Type
Successful Unsuccessful Other Closure Type Pending Medical Death0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
67.6%
24.8%
5.6%
1.8%0.2% 0.1%
National Center for State Courts
Reason for Unsuccessful Closures
Techn
ical V
iolati
on
Program
Clos
ed—
Capias
Issu
ed
Revok
ed—
New M
isdem
eano
r Offe
nse
Revok
ed—
New Felo
ny O
ffens
eOthe
r0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%63.8%
17.8%
8.0%
2.4%
8.0%
National Center for State Courts
Baseline Question 8
What percentage of FY04 probationer completers were re-arrested and/or had a new conviction while under supervision (by program completion type)?
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Re-Arrest and New Convictions In-Program
Successful Unsuccessful Total0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
3.1%
8.3%
4.8%
1.6%
3.9%
2.3%
Re-Arrested While in Program New Conviction While in Program
Differences between the successful and unsuccessful completers on both measures are significant at ..001 level.
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Baseline Question 9
What percentage of probationers were re-arrested and/or had a new conviction post-program three years from exit (by program completion type?
National Center for State Courts
Re-Arrests and New Convictions Post-Exit
Re-arrested Within Three Years New Conviction Within Three Years
New Conviction Within Five Years
New Conviction Within Eight Years
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
26.5%
16.2%
25.1%
33.4%
44.2%
31.1%
43.6%
54.9%
Successful Unsuccessful
Arr
est
Differences between the successful and unsuccessful completers all measures are significant at ..001 level.
Arr
est
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Baseline Question 10
What types of new offenses were committed by local probationers post-program in FY04?
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Statewide Total Estimated Offense Types of New Convictions Within 3 Years
Person Offense Property Offense Drug Offense Public Order Technical Offense Driving Offense Other Offense0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
14.1%
28.5%
23.9%
11.1%
23.3%
2.0%1.2%
National Center for State Courts
Number of New Offenses within 3 Years
Average of 2.18 misdemeanor arrests and 1.81 convictions within three years among all recidivists
Average of 1.76 felony arrests and .73 felony convictions within three years among all recidivists
National Center for State Courts
Recidivism Rates by Placement Charge
Person
Offe
nse
Propert
y Offe
nse
Drug O
ffens
e
Public
Orde
r Offe
nse
Techn
ical O
ffens
e
Driving
Offe
nse
Other O
ffens
e
All Offe
nse T
ypes
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
20.6%22.1%
19.3%
24.3%
28.7%
13.9%
22.8%21.4%
National Center for State Courts
Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Person Offenders
Person
Offe
nse
Propert
y Offe
nses
Drug O
ffens
es
Public
Orde
r
Techn
ical O
ffens
es
Driving
Offe
nses
Other O
ffens
es0.0%
200.0%
400.0%
600.0%
800.0%
1000.0%
1200.0%
Person Offense Property Offenses Drug Offenses Public Order Technical Offenses Driving Offenses Other Offenses0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
22.9%
16.2%
17.9%
12.7%
26.3%
1.8% 1.7%
62.5.% misdemeanor37.5% felony
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Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Property Offenders
Person Offense Property Offenses Drug Offenses Public Order Technical Offenses Driving Offenses Other Offenses0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
9.2%
38.1%
19.0%
8.4%
22.9%
2.3%
0.0%
National Center for State Courts
Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Drug Offenders
Person Offense Property Offenses Drug Offenses Public Order Technical Offenses Driving Offenses Other Offenses0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
11.2%
21.7%
31.3%
10.5%
22.2%
0.9%2.2%
National Center for State Courts
Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Public Order Offenders
Person Offense Property Offenses Drug Offenses Public Order Technical Offenses Driving Offenses Other Offenses0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
8.7%
30.3%
36.4%
12.3%10.3%
0.7% 0.9%
National Center for State Courts
Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Technical Offenders
Person Offense Property Offenses Drug Offenses Public Order Technical Offenses Driving Offenses Other Offenses0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
11.7%
20.2%
15.7%
11.4%
35.4%
4.4%
0.8%
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Baseline Question 11
What, if anything, predicted whether a probationer would successfully complete supervision in FY04?
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Methodology
Multivariate analyses were conducted to provide valid answers to Baseline Questions 11 and 12.
• Because Type of Completion and Recidivism are complex phenomenon, any number of factors could explain variation in these two variables (e.g., age, race, sex).
• To determine each of these factors’ unique contribution to explaining such variation, it is necessary to simultaneously control for the influence of all the other explanatory factors.
• Multivariate analysis is the vehicle to ascertain each explanatory factor’s unique contribution to explaining variation in each of the two variables, controlling for the influence of all the other explanatory variables.
National Center for State Courts
Predictors of successful completion
• African Americans were 31% less likely to successfully complete than Caucasians.
• Probationers placed on a felony-level charge are 53% less likely to successfully complete than those placed on a misdemeanor charge.
• Probationers with a prior misdemeanor conviction at placement are 42% less likely to successfully complete than those with none.
• Probationers with a prior felony conviction at placement are 38% less likely to successfully complete than those with none.
• Every year of education beyond the average increases the odds of successfully completing by 6%.
Only includes statistically significant predictors
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Baseline Question 12
What, if anything, predicted whether a probationer would reoffend (as measured by a new conviction within three years) post-program in FY04?
National Center for State Courts
Predictors of Recidivism
• Women are 35% less likely to have a new conviction in three years then men.
• African Americans are 43% more likely to have a new conviction than Caucasians.
• Probationers with prior misdemeanor convictions at placement are 117% more likely to have a new conviction than those without prior misdemeanor convictions.
• Probations with a prior felony conviction at placement are 39% more likely to have a new conviction than probationers without a prior felony conviction.
• Probationers who successfully complete probation are 47% less likely to have a new conviction.
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Other Items of Note – not for the report!
18 programs in FY04 showed a statistical difference in
the recidivism rates of probationers who successfully completed versus unsuccessful completers.
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Next Steps
Each program will receive program-specific data in the next two weeks.
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Next Steps
Your site specific data will include:
• Age, race, gender, marital status and educational breakdown of your sample
• Length of supervision and # of office visits for your sample
• Breakdown of closure type for your sample• Reason for unsuccessful closures in your sample• Reconviction rates for your sample
National Center for State Courts
Next Steps
A note about your recidivism rates:
Percent of Probationers Re-Convicted within Three Years of Program By Site and Statewide Estimate
SiteRe-Convicted
(%)
XXXXXX 16.0***Statewide Average 21Difference significant at: *** p < .001; ** p < .01; * p < .05NOTE: If there is a *, ** or *** next to your site, your site performed statistically better or worse than the state average. If there is no *, ** or *** next to your site, your site performed no differently (statistically) than the state average.