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Climate ChangeImpacts

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 

Change

The worlds leading climate scientists have been meeting together for many years now to review all of the science relating to climate change. The outcome of these meetings is a major report that is complied every 5 years to advise governments and the community of the current situation. Because it is such a complex and big task it sometimes takes 2 years to produce the report, and in the mean time new information is found out. But the up shot is that they are now almost certain beyond any doubt that burn fossil fuels is heating the planet through the greenhouse effect and starting to change our climate. Now its up to us to live smarter so that the predictions discussed below do not occur.

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Climate ChangeWorldwide

IPCC 2007

The information that follows comes from the IPCC 2007 report:

IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

and

Hennessy, K., B. Fitzharris, B.C. Bates, N. Harvey, S.M. Howden, L. Hughes, J. Salinger and R. Warrick, 2007: Australia and New Zealand. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 507-540.

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The story so far:

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Chart from the IPCC 2007 report. Copyright IPCC, 2007.

As we can see the evidence is there. Average temperature is increasing, sea levels are rising and snow cover is reducing.

[Original IPCC caption: Figure SPM.3. Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature, (b) global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) andsatellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All changes are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961–1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal average values while circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c). {FAQ 3.1, Figure 1, Figure 4.2, Figure 5.13}. From the Summary for Policy Makers. IPCC copyright information is available here: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_figures_and_tables.htm]

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Carbon Dioxide• is the most important greenhouse gas

• from a 280 parts per million before the industrial revolution

• to 379 ppm in 2005

• the range over last 650,000 years has been 180 to 300 ppm

• growth rate (1995–2005) averaged 1.9 ppmper year

Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic (human produced) greenhouse gas. We have seen in previous session that the electricity we use and fuel in our cars are producing this gas.

Natural range over last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm) was determined from ice cores

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Climate Change in Australia

IPCC 2007

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Major Findings

•Regional climate change has occurred since 1950

•There has been 0.4 to 0.7°C of warming

•There has been an increase in the intensity of Australian droughts

•Sea level has risen by about 70 mm

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Less rainless rain in southern and eastern Australia

more heatwaves, fewer frosts, more rain in north‐west Australia

Image: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Australia.jpg – public domain photo - NASA

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Water supplies

These changes in climate are currently being seen in our water supplies. The security of our water can be seen in the following graphs. The water flowing in our rivers and dams has reduced significantly over the last 10 years.

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Graph copyright Melbourne Water

615 GL – 385 GL = 130 GL or 34% decrease

(Into Thomson, Upper Yarra, O’Shannassy and Maroondah dams) 

And a 34% decrease in inflows into the above dams

[Image source: copyright Melbourne Water]

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Future predictions

So what could happen if we don’t do anything?

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Rising sea levels

IPCC 2007:

Continued rising sea levels mean buildings close to the beach are likely to be impacted more by storms and sea level rises. It is likely that there will be more coastal flooding.

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Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich sites

We talked about ecology and biodiversity in a previous class. Can you remember what they were?

A diverse ecosystem (lots of different types of plants, animals & organisms) will be a resilient one because it contains many species with overlapping ecological functions that can partially replace one another if one dies out or is affected by changing conditions. When a particular species is destroyed by a severe disturbance, a diverse community will be able to survive because other links can at least partially fulfil the function of the destroyed species. BUT if you destroy too many species or a KEY species, this might cause the ecosystem to change dramatically or collapse. We really do not know enough to predict what the outcome will be at this stage. The lower rain or the increased heat can have effects on plants and animals. All we know is that everything is interdependent and will be affected.

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IPCC 2007 diagram of key issues

IPCC, 2007:

This diagram shows some of the things that are likely to be issues in 2050. Some of them are happening right now. Which ones do you think are happening now?

Answer: Water issues in south-western Australia and the Murray-Darling Basin.

Image from the IPCC chapter on Australia and New Zealand (see slide 7 for bibliographic details). For IPCC copyright information see: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_figures_and_tables.htm

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Risks to Buildings, Roads, etc.

•Increased storm damage

•Increased damage by bush fires

•Extreme weather events will cause more damage to things like roads

•More blackouts

Risks to major infrastructure (e.g. roads, bridges, railways) are likely to increase by 2030.Design criteria for extreme events are very likely to be exceeded more frequently.Risks include failure of floodplain protection and urban drainage/sewerage,increased storm and fire damage, andmore blackouts caused by storm damage.

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Risks to Agriculture & Forestry

Production from agriculture and forestry is projected to decline by 2030 over much of southern and eastern Australia due to increased drought and fire. 

Decreased agricultural production will be caused by the changing temperature but also by less rainfall. A lot of agriculture uses irrigation, and if the rivers and dams don’t have enough water not enough crops can be grown.

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Risks to Health

•Increased heat related deaths

•Warmer temperatures increase food and water‐borne diseases

•Mental health (drought causing stress)

•Increased fire smoke affecting asthma suffers

Many people especially the elderly and very young cannot cope with extreme heat. The increased number of heat waves will contribute to more deaths.

We should not underestimate the effects extreme weather can have on mental health. Increased drought is likely to cause more stress for farmers, and increased bush fires are likely to cause more stress for homeowners worried about losing their home and all their possessions.

Smoke from bushfires can also affect the health of asthma sufferers.

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More Risks to Health

It is predicted that there will be changes to mosquito‐borne diseases like  Dengue Fever & Malaria in northern Australia.

The impacts of smog on health are still uncertain.

Dengue Fever•diseases of tropical and sub tropical areas•Borne by Aedes mosquito•Infections produce a spectrum of clinical illness ranging from a nonspecific viral syndrome to severe and fatal hemorrhagic disease

Malaria•Malaria is caused by a parasite called Plasmodium, which is transmitted via the bites of infected mosquitoes. •In the human body, the parasites multiply in the liver, and then infect red blood cells. •Symptoms of malaria include fever, headache, and vomiting, and usually appear between 10 and 15 days after the mosquito bite. •If not treated, malaria can quickly become life-threatening by disrupting the blood supply to vital organs.http://www.who.int/topics/malaria/en/

Dengue (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are caused by one of four closely related, but antigenically distinct, virus serotypes (DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, and DEN-4), of the genus Flavivirus. Infection with one of these serotypes provides immunity to only that serotype for life, so persons living in a dengue-endemic area can have more than one dengue infection during their lifetime. DF and DHF are primarily diseases of tropical and sub tropical areas, and the four different dengue serotypes are maintained in a cycle that involves humans and the Aedes mosquito. However, Aedes aegypti, a domestic, day-biting mosquito that prefers to feed on humans is the most common Aedes species

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How old will you be in the year 

2020?

While it may seem a long time away, the effects of climate change will impact on all of us over the coming years. But remember, it is not something that will magically happen in the year 2020 or beyond. It is happening now and is slowly making its effects felt. So now is the time to act so that things do not become worse and worse.

When you are feeling sick you go to the doctor and generally do what they suggest to get well again. The same is happening now. The doctor is suggesting we reduce our fossil fuel use and our carbon dioxide emissions. Let’s do it before the environment gets too sick.

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Projected Changes

Source: IPCC, 2007

If you consider rainfall, we are already experiencing a decline now – it is not something that might happen sometime in the future.

Image source: IPCC chapter on Australia and New Zealand (see slide 7). For IPCC copyright information see: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_figures_and_tables.htm

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But the good news is:

There is lots of things we can do to reduce our emissions. If everyone does their bit and uses energy smarter, and our governments commit to real changes, we can tackle the issues that face us.

It is not a forgone conclusion. Many people all over the world know that things can change and are starting to make that change. This is what the Youth Eco-Challenge is about: learning about what personal changes we can make in our lives.