Valuing the Ocean

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Preview o results rom a book onvaluing the oceans and the economicconsequences o action or inaction

Edited by:Kevin Noone

Rashid Sumaila

Robert J Daz

Valuing the OceanDrat Executive Summary

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The ocean aces a multitude ointerconnected threats that isunprecedented in modern history.This book intends to help crystalliseour understanding o the value

o ocean services to humankind,allowing them to be accounted oras we plan or a uture raught withrisk and uncertainty.


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Introduction 2

Ocean Acidifcation 3

Ocean Warming 4

Hypoxia 5

Sea Level Rise 6

Pollution 7

Overuse o Marine Resources 7

The Impacts o Multiple Stressors: A complex web o challenges 8

Valuing the Ocean Environment: Economic perspectives 9

Planning or Surprise: How to deal with the reality o uncertainty 10

The Pacifc Ocean: A case or coordinated action 12

Key Conclusions and Recommendations 13

Preview o results rom a book onvaluing the oceans and the economicconsequences o action or inaction


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able benets we can obtain rom marine resourcesacross scales rom local to global, and in the ace oseveral interacting and escalating threats.

The very chemical, thermodynamic and biologicaloundations o the ocean are being jeopardised byhuman activity, putting at risk marine ecosystems andservices on which humankind so essentially depends.We need to be made aware o what we stand tolose i we continue to neglect the ocean and ail toadequately address global environmental change.This book hopes to guide policy-makers, acceleratethe implementation o new management tools andsystems, and most importantly encourage people

to ask themselves what the oceans are really worthto them and to the uture o our planet.

The atmosphere and the ocean exchange gasesacross the sea surace to such an extent that overthe last 200 years the oceans have absorbed 25-30percent o the global accumulated emissions o CO

2.

While this process partially buers climate change,the resulting perturbations to the oceans carbonatesystem known as ocean acidication have wor-

rying consequences or the chemistry o the ocean,or the organisms that inhabit it, and or human-ity. Ocean acidication is a direct consequence oincreased CO

2emissions. Mean surace ocean acidity

has increased by 30 percent since the industrial revo-lution and i we continue to emit CO

2at the same

rate, the acidity could increase by 150-200 percentby 2100. This rate o change is around 10 timesaster than that caused by any other event experi-enced by the ocean in the last 65 million years.

This is highly certain as it is based on known chem-istry. In some regions, such as the northwest coasto North America, acidication is already impacting

on important commercial shellsh. In the Arctic Seaan additional 800 square kilometres o sea foor arebeing exposed every year to seawater chemical con-ditions that are corrosive to unprotected shells.

Ocean acidication is also predicted to slow downthe absorbing capacity o the oceans great carbonsink, meaning that as we move into the uture morecarbon will remain in the atmosphere and add toclimate change. We simply cannot aord these rapidchanges to ocean chemistry and their direct conse-quences on uture human security. I global emis-sions o CO

2are not rapidly curbed it will take tens

o thousands o years or oceanic pH to return tocurrent levels.

Six Threats to the Ocean

Ocean Acidifcation

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The ocean is the cornerstone o our lie-supportsystem. It covers over 70 percent o our planet andgenerates the oxygen in every second breath wetake; it has cushioned the blow o climate changeby absorbing 2530 percent o all anthropogeniccarbon emissions and 80 percent o the heat addedto the global system; it regulates our weather andprovides ood or billions o people. The ocean ispriceless.

The ocean has always been thought o as the epito-me o unconquerable, inexhaustible vastness and va-riety, but this plenty more sh in the sea image maybe its worst enemy. The immense scale o the ocean,and its remoteness rom most o our daily lives, hascontributed to its chronic neglect. For rather thanbeing too big to ail, even the ocean is not immuneto the destructive capacity o anthropogenic climatechange and, more broadly, global environmentalchange. Its capacities are being stretched and someo the vital services it provides to humankind areseriously degraded. Unlike the ocean itsel, many othese services rom ood security, to storm protec-tion, to carbon absorption can and should be as-signed monetary values and incorporated in broaderglobal and national economic policies, so that theybecome visible when we plan or the uture.

As nancial and institutional resources are stretchedin the ace o economic recession and a multitude opressing global challenges, the ocean is not risingast enough up political agendas, despite mountingresearch pointing to the multiple threats being acedand growing evidence o the causes behind them.Rather than beneting rom economies o scale, theocean is the victim o a global market ailure, as wecontinue to largely ignore the true worth o its eco-systems, services and unctions, and externalise the

true costs o pollution. A radical shit in the way weview and value the ocean is needed.

Some threats to the ocean, such as overshing andcoral bleaching, are widely researched and increas-ingly well known to the public. Other less visiblethreats, such as acidication and hypoxia (deoxy-genation) o the ocean, are only just beginning tobe understood and remain beyond the awareness omost people. Even less well grasped are the ways inwhich the many complex changes occurring in theocean overlap and interact, and the extent o theirimpact on dierent communities and economies. It isclear that we require new ways o understanding theocean and the threats it aces, and a greater appre-ciation o the value o the services it bestows.

This orthcoming collaborative book seeks to bridgethese gaps. The opening chapters provide thorough

overviews o the current status o the six most impor-tant marine challenges, namely ocean acidication,ocean warning, hypoxia, sea level rise, pollution andthe overuse o marine resources. There is a sub-stantial literature on each o these issues, but thusar they have largely been researched and reportedseparately. In this book, concise reviews o the stateo the science in these areas will now be ound all inone place. The book then breaks new ground by t-ting the pieces together in a chapter examining thesignicance o multiple stressors and their policy im-plications, and by making a rst attempt to actuallyput a price on the avoidable portion o uture globalenvironmental change in the marine domain, i.e. the

monetary value o not causing urther damage to theocean.

By pricing the dierence between low- and high-emission scenarios, characterised as the distancebetween our hopes and our ears, the book intendsto crystallise our understanding o the value o oceanservices to humankind and allow policy-makers tomore eectively account or these services when as-sessing the economic implications o global environ-mental change and what to do about it. In the nalchapters, a discussion o dierent ways to plan or auture raught with risk and uncertainty is presented,ollowed by a case study o the Pacic Ocean, whichshows how the global analyses presented can be ap-plied in a regional context.

Some things that cannot be assigned meaningulprices are nonetheless critical to the unctioning othe Earth System. Nutrient cycling, oxygen produc-tion and genetic resources are examples o proper-ties o the oceans that are vital to maintaining ourlie-support system, but which cannot be measuredin monetary terms. These kinds o Earth System Val-ues are also highlighted in the book through the useo an expert survey approach to complement themore traditional scenario-based planning. In theseways, the authors intend to expand the research

rontier in marine sciences and improve on method-ologies or holistic, cross-scale analysis. Decisionsin the marine domain will need to be made despitehaving a number o signicant known and un-known unknowns. It is hoped that this book will helpto identiy some o these potential surprises and putbounds on their signicance and impact.

This book is a link in a chain rather than an end initsel. The conclusions and monetary gures it pres-ents are not denitive too much is yet unknownand uncertain or that but are intended to contrib-ute towards a new approach to ocean governance,one that is ully integrated and prioritised withinthe broader picture o social, environmental andeconomic policy. We critically need to go beyondthe current approach o addressing (or ignoring!) oneproblem at a time. We must create managementstrategies that are aimed at optimising the sustain-

Introduction

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Six Threats to the OceanContinued

Hypoxia

The ocean has absorbed 80 percent o the heatadded to the climate system over the past 200years, resulting in rising mean surace oceantemperatures and serious implications or marineecosystems and resources, as well as or coastalpopulations around the globe. In addition to sealevel rise, there are two primary impacts o oceanwarming: physical aspects related to changes inextreme weather events; and biological conse-quences, including range shits in sh populations

and coral bleaching.

One consequence o global warming is expectedto be an increase in more extreme weather events.Observations and models point to a greater inten-sity o precipitation in some areas, causing exces-sive fooding and erosion, and drought in otherareas. Further, the liecycles o tropical cyclones areintimately linked to sea-surace temperatures andan increase in the intensity o tropical cyclones hasalready been observed. As shown in Figure 1.1, thepercentage o the strongest storms (category 4 and5) increased rom less than 20 percent in 19701974to about 35 percent in 20002004. Storms in thesecategories cause by ar the most damage.

More intense tropical cyclones stand to severelydamage settlements and inrastructure in denselypopulated coastal areas, and may particularly impactsome o the worlds most vulnerable coastal c ommuni-ties as they lack the capacity to adequately prepareor or respond to such events. Unless action is takento address the growing concentrations o people andproperty in coastal areas where tropical cyclones makelandall, damage will increase and by a great deal.

Ocean warming is also impacting species distributionand oodwebs underlying globally signicant sher-ies, with the range shits o species moving towardhigher latitudes (poleward) and into deeper waters.

Shits in the distribution o sh will adversely impactmany coastal nations and urther threaten oodsecurity, especially in developing nations. Increasedtemperatures are also predicted to cause the bleach-ing and death o highly valuable and productive coralrees, which are among the oc eans most biologicallydiverse ecosystems. Not only do coral rees serve asnurseries or many sh species vital to commercialshing industries, they also act as a buer againststorms, protecting many island and coastal states.

The value o these services is enormous. Maintainingthe resilience o marine ecosystems and ensuring theproper management o sheries is ever more criticalin light o the anticipated impacts o ocean warming.

Ocean Warming

Figure 1.1 Percentage o tropicalcyclones in dierent Sar-Simpsonhurricane categories (1 = weakest, 5 =strongest), 19752004. Originally Fig.4B in Webster, P. J., G. J. Holland, J. A.Curry and H. R. Chang ( 2005), Changesin Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration,and Intensity in a Warming Environ-ment, Science, 309(5742), 18441846.

Phytoplankton blooms in the Black Sea, ater foods on the Danube River swept over broad stretches o armland June 20, 2006.


Over the last 50 years alarming trends o declin-ing oxygen concentrations have been observedin both coastal and open ocean systems. Hypoxia(or deoxygenation) is one o the most acute con-sequences o eutrophication, the over-enrichmento waters with nutrients and organic matter, inparticular anthropogenic nitrogen rom ertiliserrun-o, sewage and industrial waste. There are nowover 500 known hypoxic dead zones in the globalocean, where limited supplies o dissolved oxygen

prohibit the growth and reproduction o organisms,and the number is increasing astest in the develop-ing world. This phenomenon is already endangeringimportant ecosystems that provide communitieswith ood. In addition, the volume o naturally occur-ring low-oxygen areas, or oxygen-minimum zones, isalso expanding due to global environmental changeand rising sea temperatures.

No other environmental threat o such critical im-portance to marine ecosystems has accelerated sodrastically in such a short timerame. Excess reactivenitrogen in the environment is considered one o thethree out o nine planetary boundaries that have al-ready been exceeded. Future scenarios or hypoxiain the global oceans will largely depend on a com-bination o actors related to global environmental

change and land-use, including a growing humanpopulation, especially along the coasts; agriculturalpractices; and nutrient loadings. Under a businessas-usual-scenario, the amount o reactive nitrogenentering the ocean is projected to grow by 50 per-cent by 2050, leading to the increased requency,intensity and duration o coastal hypoxia.

Integrated action is urgently required to preventand remediate hypoxia. Its global extent and threatto human health and marine ecosystem servicesare just beginning to be appreciated, and muchremains unknown regarding its social and economicconsequences. Virtually all o the inormation we do

have is rom North America and Europe. We knowvery little about conditions in the most populatedparts o the planet or oceanic islands. The goodnews is that it is possible to recover oxygen levelseven in the deadest o dead zones. To do so willrequire dramatic increases in ertiliser-use eciency,and thereore institutional capacities or managingnutrient levels need to be strengthened at the local,national, regional and global levels. New public-private partnerships are also needed across keysectors to stimulate innovation in nutrient reductionand reuse technology. Addressing the expansion ooxygen-minimum zones is an even greater chal-lenge as these areas are directly related to warmingtrends. The only eective solution is to mitigateglobal environmental change by curbing carbonemissions.

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Marine pollution comes in many dierent orms,including toxic chemicals, solid waste, nutrient andsediment input due to human activities (e.g. agricul-ture, deorestation, sewage discharge, aquaculture),radioactivity, oil spills, and debris such as discardedshing nets and plastics. Furthermore, the spread oinvasive species throughout the ocean is increasing-ly reerred to as biological pollution. The combinedcocktail eects o dierent chemicals and synergiesbetween dierent types o pollutants are virtually

unknown. Marine pollution changes the physical,chemical and biological characteristics o the oceanand coastal zones, which threatens biodiversity andaects the quality, productivity and resilience omarine ecosystems. Although the direct impacts opollution are oten localised, the United Nations En-vironment Programme (UNEP) has ound that pollu-tion is a major concern in coastal oceans, large lakesand riverine systems in over hal o all investigatedregions, making it very much a global threat. Coor-dinated international eorts have already succeededin reducing oil spills; similar action is needed now toreverse the rise in plastic debris ound throughoutthe ocean, and to address the growing threat ocontaminated seaood.

The eects o global environmental change on thedistribution o pollution and contamination arelargely unknown. More research is needed to deter-mine how shiting climate zones, increased tempera-tures and altered precipitation patterns will infuencethe pathways and eects o pollutants at global andregional scales, where impacts may be amplied ordecline depending on pollutant and region. Howev-er, it is known that since some o the most importantproperties o chemicals are temperature dependent,environmental levels o pollutants can be infuencedby climate change and variability. Pollutants can alsohave a negative impact on the ability o organismsto cope with a changing climate, or example by un-dermining their immune and reproduction systems,and can weaken the resilience o marine ecosystemsto other stressors such as acidication.

Fishing is an ancient method o gathering ood thathas gone on or many millennia. Today, exportso sh are particularly important or developingcountries and in many cases are higher in value thanagricultural commodities such as rice and sugar.The vital importance o sh as a component o dietis oten not recognised. According to the Foodand Agriculture Organization o the United Nations(FAO), sh provide 20 percent o the intake o ani-mal protein or 1.5 billion people and 15 percent or

about 3 billion people. In SIDS and poorer coastalareas this gure can reach 90 percent. Globally, thetotal economic value o shing is estimated at USD225235 billion per annum. The majority o shersand sh armers are located in Asia (85.5 percent),ollowed by Arica (9.3 percent), while in develop-ing countries alone more than 200 million peopleare dependent on small-scale shing. Fisheries arehugely important, both economically and in termso ood security, especially as the global populationis projected to rise to more than 9 billion by 2050,with almost all this growth occurring in developingstates.

The worlds marine capture sheries are in aseverely troubled state. The FAO estimates that85 percent o sh stocks are ully exploited, over-exploited, depleted or recovering rom depletion.Harmul subsidies continue to contribute to theovercapacity o the global shing feet, inconsisten-cies in regional sheries management organisations(RFMOs) lead to poor regulation, and illegal andunreported shing estimated to drain USD 50billion rom the sector every year remains largelyunabated; all threaten the long-term sustainabilityo these key resources.

The loss o marine biodiversity will be urther ex-

acerbated by global environmental change (GEC)impacts. Ocean warming is already leading to shitsin the range, depth and distribution o some keyspecies and is expected to urther disrupt migra-tion patterns, leading to uncertainty in the abilityo coastal communities to rely on these sheries tosupport their livelihoods. Another potentially impor-tant link between global environmental and sheriesare the eects on phytoplankton, the oundation oocean oodwebs, which are negatively impacted bywarming, acidication and hypoxia. While numerousuncertainties regarding impacts on sheries remain,GEC-related variability is an ongoing challenge orthose whose livelihoods depend on shing, creat-ing a need or adaptation but making it dicultto achieve. The greatest vulnerability to climate-related shing losses is concentrated in tropicalleast-developed countries, many o them in Aricaand Southeast Asia.

PollutionOveruse oMarine Resources


Global mean sea level has already risen by about25cm since the 1800s, and the pace is accelerat-ing. Levels rose by approximately 1.8mm per yearover the last ve decades, doubled to 3.1mm peryear in the 1990s, and were 2.5mm per y ear in theperiod 20032007. Sea level rise is caused by melt-ing glaciers and ice caps, loss o ice rom major icesheets in Greenland and Antarctica, thermal expan-sion o the ocean, and changes in terrestrial storage.Melting ice has been the dominant source o sea

level rise or about the last decade. How rapidly themajor ice sheets will respond to urther increases intemperature is dependent on dynamic processes andeedback loops and remains uncertain; this will bethe major determining actor in uture sea level rise.In Greenland, ice loss already increased by a actoro seven in the decade between the mid-1990s andthe mid-2000s. In parts o Antarctica, ice loss nearlydoubled in the same period.

Although our understanding o these processes isgrowing, obtaining a precise estimate or sea levelat the end o the century remains beyond our abili-ties. The projections or sea level rise by 2100 varybetween a minimum o 0.2 metres and a maximumo about 2 metres. What is known is that while sealevel rise will impact all coastal areas, it will do so todiering extents. Sea level is an existential threat orsome small island developing states (SIDS), which will

disappear entirely with even modest increases. Other,more widespread, impacts include submergence andfooding o coastal land, saltwater intrusion, increasederosion, and habitat destruction. The highest riskareas are coastal zones with dense populations, lowelevations, high rates o land subsidence, and limitedadaptive capacity. Figure 1.2 shows the locations othese vulnerable regions, which include the entirecoast o Arica and South and Southeast Asia, as wellas Pacic, Indian Ocean and Caribbean islands.

Approximately 145 million people live within 1 metero mean high water, more than 70% o whom arein Asia, and 268 and 397 million live within 5 and

10 meters, respectively. National security could bethreatened in certain cases i low-lying areas that arekey to the unctioning o vulnerable states are deci-mated by rising seas. People living in at-risk coastalareas have essentially two choices about how torespond to increasing sea level: ght or fee. Fightinginvolves improving or building coastal deenses seawalls, dikes and other built inrastructure. Fleeinginvolves relocating people rom low-lying areas tohigher ground.

The international community must recognize thatconsiderable damages and costs can be avoidedthrough adaptation measures taken now. The peoplewho stand to be most aected by climate c hangeare among the least responsible or greenhouse gasemissions: innovative strategies, nancial instrumentsand unding mechanisms must be mobilized to ad-dress their urgent needs.


Sea Level Rise

vunerable coastal region

vunerable island region

Figure 1.2 Regions vulnerable to fooding caused by sea level rise. Originally Fig. 3 in Nicholls, R. J. andA. Cazenave (2010), Sea Level Rise and its Impact on Coastal Zones, Science, 328(5985), 15171520.

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Uniting an analysis o the ways multiple threats inter-act in the ocean with a global economic analysis othe comparative consequences o action or inactionon global environmental change, and in particularclimate change, is a major and ongoing challenge.While there is no universally accepted denition othe blue economy, the goal o strengthening it iswidely considered to require that we integrate andmake sustainable all sectors and unctions that relyon marine resources and ecosystems, allowing them

to continue to provide their vital and irreplaceableservices.

Some things are too valuable to be assigned mean-ingul prices. Rather than asking the impossiblequestion o what the ocean itsel is worth, what thischapter seeks to at least partially calculate is whatis the value o preventing urther damage to theocean?. Or, what is the cost o the environmentaldamage that could be done to the ocean i we donot take action?.

The analysis is restricted to ve categories o dam-ages that can be meaningully priced and that canrealistically be aected by policy decisions takentoday and in the coming decades. The dierence inclimate impacts is measured between two scenarios:a scenario o only limited, slow-moving abatement,where emissions continue to grow or many de-cades; and a rapid abatement scenario, where emis-sions are reduced quickly and eectively, starting atonce and approaching zero within this century.

The best estimates, based on the most reliableand up-to-date analyses available, o the price othe ve categories o damages discussed here arepresented in Figure 1.3. By 2050, the value o theseimportant climate impacts is estimated to be more

than our times higher under a high emissions, high

impact scenario. By 2100, the cost o damage i weollow the high emission pathway rises to USD 1,980billion, equivalent to 0.37 percent o global GDP.The dierence between the two scenarios, or theamount that can be saved by lowering emissions, iswell over a trillion dollars per year by 2100, equiva-lent to 0.25 percent o GDP. It is this dierence theavoidable damages that policy-makers should takeparticular note o, and that should be included in thecomplex web o climate change accounting.

This is not a scaremongering orecast. Some peoplemay even argue that the value o protecting theseservices is not particularly large in the great scheme

o things. However, while considering these gures itis important to remember that they are only the sumo some things. They do not take into account theworth beyond measure o the actual species whichlive in the ocean; or some o the critical processesand eatures o the ocean such as nutrient cycling,ecosystem unctioning and genetic resources towhich meaningul prices cannot be assigned; orthe irreplaceable losses to cultural heritage and thedignity and identity o communities that are antici-pated to be caused by global environmental change.The study also does not take into account the totaldisappearance that is possible even probable orcertain coastal or island communities, and does notully consider the catastrophe that will result i globalenvironmental change tipping points are reached.

The gures are also not set in stone, but are subjectto change along with the continuous fow o researchand discovery. This chapter simply hopes to jump-start a reasoned debate aimed at guiding policy-makers through the monetary value o the servicesprovided by the ocean and what we stand to losei we do not protect these services, and to encour-age the integration o ocean services in economicplans. Decisions in the coming years will determinewhether this trillion-dollar-a-year gure becomespart o the savings made by rapidly reducing carbon

emissions, or yet another cost o inaction.

Valuing the Ocean EnvironmentEconomic perspectives

Valuing the Ocean Environment

Low climate impacts High climate impacts Diference

2050 2100 2050 2100 2050 2100

Fisheries 67.5 262.1 88.4 343.3 20.9 81.2

Sea level rise 10.3 34.0 111.6 367.2 101.3 333.2

Storms 0.6 14.5 7.0 171.9 6.4 157.4

Tourism 27.3 301.6 58.3 639.4 31.1 337.7

Ocean carbon sink 0.0 0.0 162.8 457.8 162.8 457.8

Total 105.7 612.2 428.1 1,979.6 322.5 1,367.4

Percent of GDP 0.06% 0.11% 0.25% 0.37% 0.18% 0.25%

Figure 1.3 Valuation o selected climate impacts on the ocean (in billions o 2010 US dollars).

The ocean aces a multitude o interconnectedthreats that is unprecedented in modern human his-tory. All regions o the ocean stand to be impactedby multiple stressors in the near uture, while over40 percent o marine ecosystems are already simul-taneously acing several o the six major pressuresoutlined in this book. Despite this act, most man-agement strategies proceed on an issue-specicbasis with little consideration or the interactionsbetween dierent threats or the impacts o multiple

stressors occurring at the same time. Inormation israrely synthesised to convey a clear picture o wheremultiple threats are maniesting globally, regionallyor locally, or whether their eects are antagonisticor synergistic.

The need to understand the complex interactionsand potentially cumulative eects o multiple stress-ors is one o the most pressing issues in marineecology today. The stressors can be divided intotwo categories: those that act globally but withvarying intensity such as increased temperature, de-creased oxygen and ocean acidication; and thosethat act at a local to regional level but which occurglobally, such as overshing, pollution, increasednutrients and hypoxia. The co-existence o morethan one threat can create impacts that are greaterthan the sum o the parts; this is known as a syn-ergistic response. The risk o such responses hasbeen shown to double where three or more stress-ors intersect. The potential or synergies is one othe largest uncertainties surrounding the predictiono the impacts o anthropogenic stressors.

To present one important example, the occurrenceo mass bleaching o coral rees has been shown tooccur more requently in response to a combinationo stressors acting simultaneously and oten syn-

ergistically. The impacts o globally acting stressors,such as increasing temperature and acidication, in-teracting with local stressors, such as pollution, havebeen shown to have signicant consequences orcoral rees in a number o regions across the world.In these cases, pollution undermines the resilienceo coral ree ecosystems to other stresses, whichdiminishes their capacity to provide services such asstorm surge protection, which is itsel increasinglyvital in the ace o global environmental change.

There are complex eedback loops at play in theoceans. More research is urgently required, orexample, to improve our comprehension o howocean acidication, ocean warming and hypoxia in-teract and aect marine resources. However, a patho inaction cannot be permitted while we acquirebetter knowledge and understanding. For someeedback loops we have enough inormation to act

now. We already know that increased CO2

in theatmosphere results in acidication; ocean warmingleads to increased stratication; increased strati-cation enhances both acidication and hypoxia;hypoxia in turn enhances the eects o acidication;and that there may also be an increase in hypoxia asa result o acidication. This is complicated beorewe even start to consider the consequences ormarine organisms, but it is becoming alarminglyapparent that the ocean is being subjected to avicious cycle o severe threats as a direct result ohuman emissions especially o carbon.

Though these challenges are daunting, there is an

incredibly important implication o the observedlinks between globally and locally acting stressors:the control o local- to regional-scale threats has thepotential to mitigate the impacts o global stress-ors, which is a prime indication that coordinatedlocal interventions can aggregate upwards to havea global signicance.

The cumulative eect o these overlapping threats isa key reason why their impacts are being observedat a aster rate than previously predicted. It is there-

ore paramount that they be addressed togetherand across all scales. We need to learn to makepolicy decisions that aim to optimise these com-plex systems, approaching ocean governance romstrategic perspectives that utilise multi-managementschemes. While much remains unknown and unpre-dictable we should adopt a precautionary approachin the context o these unprecedented multiplestressors. The words o Agenda 21 may be 20 yearsold but they ring truer today than ever: ocean man-agement strategies must be integrated in content,and precautionary and anticipatory in ambit.

The Impacts o Multiple StressorsA complex web o challenges

The Impacts o Multiple Stressors

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Planning or SurpriseHow to deal with the realityo uncertainty

Beyond the existing threats o extreme events andlocal losses lies a greater unknown: the ultimate risko reaching tipping points at which global environ-mental change results perhaps quite rapidly incatastrophic and irreversible damages to the globalenvironment. The insurance ramework does notapply literally to such global threats; there is nointerplanetary insurance company that will cover ourdestruction o the only planet we have. The only validsolution is the development o global policies thatwill sel-insure humanity against tipping points andcatastrophic losses, by controlling climate changeand environmental degradation at a level that makesdisasters less, rather than more, likely in the uture.

These ultimate goals must be included as we con-sider the value o protecting the ocean environment.

In this regard, it is also useul to be aware o the linksbetween threats to the marine environment and therecently identied nine planetary boundaries. Theearth and its ecosystems and resources are nite;thereore, existing, resource-intensive patterns oeconomic growth will, sooner or later, reach thresh-olds at which dangerous changes are threatened.According to a major recent study, those boundar-ies are being reached sooner rather than later: wehave already passed into the danger zone on climatechange, biodiversity loss, and overuse o nitrogen,and we are ast approaching the boundaries in otherareas, including ocean acidication, phosphorus (er-tiliser) run-o into the oceans, and other cr itical areas.

The examination o related processes, as shown inFigure 1.4, could be a useul aid in strategic plan-ning. The gure illustrates the nexus between ouro the ocean threats discussed in the book (shownin boxes) with the nine planetary boundaries. Thearrows show causal links; or instance, increased CO

2

in the atmosphere (Climate change in the gure)increases both ocean acidication and warming, botho which impact marine biodiversity. Agricultural land

use infuences the cycles o nitrogen and phosphorus,which impact hypoxia in the oceans. Taking this kindo holistic view helps to predict how action or inac-tion in one eld impacts o n another, or better orworse, and could help policy-makers to maximise theeectiveness o interventions.

The use o expert surveys is also increasingly beingapplied to environmental risk assessment. Figure 1.5is a preliminary values-threats matrix showing the an-ticipated dierence between the low and high emis-sions scenarios used in this book. The question put tomarine experts or each threat/value combination (orinstance, ocean acidication and ecosystem unction)

is: comparing the two Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios used inthe economic analysis, how will the eects o oc eanacidication infuence ecosystem unction? An arrowpointing straight down indicates that the expertssurveyed thought the threat would become muchworse; a 45 degree angle downwards indicates thatthe situation would become worse; a horizontal arrowindicates no signicant change. The size o the arrowsindicates the degree o consensus between experts:long arrows indicate a high degree o consensus;short arrows show little consensus. This kind o matrixcan aid decision-makers with strategic planning inseveral ways. We can quickly identiy areas in whichthere is strong consensus in the expert communitythat threats will become worse, and where coordi-nated, multinational eorts to address the problemsare necessary. We can also quickly identiy areas inwhich consensus is lacking, and where we need moreresearch to support decision-making.

The act that all the approaches considered have theirshortcomings is key to the take-home message o thissection: that we need to develop innovative manage-ment tools which help ormulate strategic plans thatwork across scales and or several variables simultane-ously, and which account or the element o surprise.

Figure 1.5.A values-threatsmatrix indicatingthe anticipateddierence betweenlow and high emis-sions scenarios ordierent threat/value combinations.

Planning or SurpriseHow to deal with the realityo uncertainty

Planning or Surprise

Preparing or the uture involves assessing the op-portunities and risks that tomorrow may bring us,and devising plans and strategies to deal with them.In the context o multiple marine threats and uncer-tainties this is a daunting task, and one or whichwe are currently not very well equipped. This bookthereore includes a chapter dedicated specicallyto planning or an unpredictable uture.

The threats to the oceans identied in this book

include both predictable, gradual changes, such asthose or which monetary values can be estimated,and abrupt, low-probability changes associated withtipping points and potentially catastrophic losses.Unortunately, economic and policy debate otennarrows its ocus to the ormer category, adoptingthe available numerical estimates or calculations ocosts and benets. This in eect assigns a prob-ability o zero to the most ominous, but uncertain,threats that we ace.

In other areas o lie, individuals and institutionsadopt much more sophisticated approaches touncertainty. We routinely buy insurance to cover rarecalamities such as residential res, car accidents,or the death o young parents, even though theseunlikely events have very low probabilities, otenjust tenths o a percent per year. Faced with lesspredictable threats o extreme events, businessesoten explore alternative scenarios as in the ex-ample discussed in this chapter, which is borrowedrom a major energy corporation. It uses contrastingstories o uture development, intentionally refect-ing a wide range o possibilities, to create scenariosaimed at guiding business strategies.

Planning or worst-case scenarios is central to mili-tary and security policies. Costly, or at least time-consuming, precautions against unlikely, catastroph-ic risks are amiliar to anyone who travels by plane;i predictable, average, or most likely outcomeswere all that mattered, there would be no need orairport screening o passengers or luggage. Militaryplanning is all about worst cases; on an averageday, no one needs an army. The same precautionaryramework also underlies a US military analysis oclimate change risks, discussed in this chapter. Thatanalysis examines a worst-case, though still pos-sible, scenario based on the most extreme potentialoutcomes o dierent climate projections. It is not

based on any theoretical or numerical model, butuses interviews with climate experts to extrapolateplausible climate change implications or nationalsecurity.

A central implication o the economic analysis in thisbook is the need or better risk models, recognisingthat traditional cost-benet analysis is inadequate inthe ace o extreme events. Using methods derivedrom insurance models could be more appropriate.This is applicable on two levels: the creative use oinsurance mechanisms to cope with extreme eventsand ensuing local disasters; and the development olong-term policies that unction as insurance againstcatastrophic and irreversible global risks. Insuranceagainst extreme events is needed because theimpacts o these events on the most exposed andvulnerable coastal communities, such as SIDS, willbe greater than the global averages suggest, andmay overwhelm local resources. Insurance tools canalso help to create awareness o the risks associatedwith multiple stressors, providing a range o tools,including risk assessment and hazard mapping, toacilitate adaptation eorts and help invest resourc-es most wisely.

Figure 1.4 Links between threats tothe global oceans (in boxes outsidethe circle) and the nine planetaryboundaries identied in Rockstrm,J., et al. (2009), A sae operatingspace or humanity, Nature, 461(24September), 472-475. Note thatone o these boundaries oceanacidication is identical to one othe six ocean threats. N&P reers tonitrogen and phosphorus.


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The Pacic Ocean ecosystem contains hal o theworlds ocean area and generates 60 percent o itsshing revenues. It also provides vast economicservices in the realms o tourism, recreation, naturalgas, atmospheric and climate regulation, and trans-portation; is the oundation o the cultural heritage omillions o coastal and island people who live alongthe shores o this great ocean; and is home to an im-measurable wealth o biodiversity.

Alongside this bounty brews an equally diverseconcoction o threats, including all o those pre-sented in this book, making the Pacic basin theperect laboratory to examine the impacts o andpotential responses to the complex web o multi-stressors at a regional level. Decades o overshingand the subsequent alarming decline o key sheries,especially in the western and southwest Pacic, aremajor problems, long driven by subsidies and setto be urther exacerbated by the eects o globalenvironmental change. Many regions o the Pacichave already experienced considerable sea-suracewarming, and projected changes in species distribu-tions are expected to lead to a large decrease inmaximum potential catch in the tropical Pacic by the2050s. In addition, the large areas o coral rees in thePacic region are vulnerable to ocean warming andacidication, with consequences or the rich biodiver-sity they contain and growing tourism industry theysupport. This does not begin to consider the loomingthreat o sea level rise, which could alter the entirecoast o the basin and wipe some islands o the map.

Solutions to these issues must be holistic, multi-sec-

toral and cross-scale, putting into eect the concepto optimising a complex system presented in the mul-tiple stressors chapter o this book. The governmentso the Pacic region need to take a proactive stanceagainst overshing, especially considering the addi-tional stresses o global environmental change; agreeto eliminate distorting subsidies; and institute jointmanagement o shared and high seas sh stocks.Coordinated action must be taken to mitigate andprepare or the eects o climate change on coastaland island communities, including through protec-tive inrastructure to guard against sea level rise andincreased severe weather, as well as the developmento alternative skills and livelihoods to diversiy loc al

economies and ease their total dependence on sh-ing and tourism.

In the ace o so many uncertainties, protection romunmanageable surprises (and valuable time) can bebought by bolstering the resilience o important eco-systems such as mangroves and coral rees, as wellas through the creation o careully sited marine pro-tected areas. With so much to protect, and so muchto lose, the infuential tourism and shing industriesshould become strong advocates or the reduc-tion o carbon emissions in other sectors o nationaleconomies (as well as their own), and lobby theirgovernments to take a strong stance in internationalnegotiations. The Pacic provides humanity with hun-dreds o billions o dollars o vital services every year,as well as playing a priceless role in the lives andtraditions o its coastal and island inhabitants, and ishome to an astonishing variety o species. In this one,albeit vast, basin the value o preventing the urtherdeterioration o the ocean, and the immense costsand devastating losses that will ensue i eective andcoordinated action is not taken across all scales toaddress multiple stressors, can be clearly envisaged.

The Pacifc OceanA case or coordinated action

The Pacifc Ocean

The services provided by the ocean are immenselyvaluable but inadequately integrated in national,regional and global economic analyses and plans.The ocean is the victim o a massive market ailureand dilution o political will, with devastatingconsequences or its ecosystems and the billionso people dependent on them. For example, theocean stores an enormous portion o the planetsCO

2. However, i marine ecosystems are urther

degraded, their carbon uptake could be reduced

or potentially even reversed. The value o thisblue carbon is not being awarded sucient at-tention, and remains wholly unvalued by manygovernments and sectors.

Multiple stressors are in some regions combining tocreate a perect storm o impacts that threatens toseriously degrade critical ocean services. Unortu-nately, this trend is becoming more and more com-mon, yet very ew management strategies are ad-dressing multiple stressors in a coherent way. Thisundermines the resilience o marine ecosystems towithstand additional stress and places many coastaland island communities at heightened risk.

Global environmental change impacts on theocean are occurring aster and more signicantlythan predicted in the 2007 IPPC report. Funda-mental changes being observed in the ocean areextremely alarming, scientically veriable, highlysignicant to humankind, and set to become arworse i we do not take coordinated action.

Climate change and its related threats are increas-ing the probability o high risk, high impact eventssuch as major foods and intense tropical storms.In light o this, traditional cost-benet approachesto risk assessment and planning are no longer ap-

propriate as they do not capture the ull eects othese events.

Huge savings can be made i we act now to reducecarbon emissions. For example, many o theimpacts o sea level rise are potentially avoidablewith widespread upgrade o protection measures,but at substantial cost. Increases in adaptationcosts are estimated at USD 25 billion per year ora 0.5 metre rise, but escalate to USD 270 billionper year by 2100 or a 2 metre rise. The benetso early action stretch ar beyond nancial calcu-lations to also include preserving the dignity ovulnerable island communities and the nationalsecurity o heavily impacted states that could beimperiled by a last minute scramble or survival.

Developing countries are at greatest risk romthe global environmental change impacts onthe ocean: states most at risk rom sea level riseinclude some o the worlds poorest and mostheavily populated; shing communities in, or ex-ample, Asia, West Arica and the Caribbean standto lose livelihoods and ood security as sh speciesmigrate poleward in search o cooler water; orsome SIDS climate change is a question o theirvery existence.

It is possible to reverse or remediate certain oceandamages through concerted management eorts.Some hypoxic zones have recovered, and the oc-

currence o certain pollutants has been reduced.Other changes, such as ocean acidication, couldtake thousands o years to reverse i they continueunabated at current rates.

Much can and must be done now. We cannotaord to wait or perect inormation and perectpolitical circumstances; they may never materialise.The absence o total understanding and globalagreement must not delay the implementation oproven techniques to enhance ocean ecosystemresilience and the eectiveness o governancestrategies.

Local and national actions can increase the abil-ity o specic, and important, ecosystems towithstand multiple threats and help prepare andprotect vulnerable populations. Local governmentsare crucial connectors and coalition-builders, andare oten best placed to address problems directly.

Key Conclusions andRecommendations

Conclusions

The key conclusions and recommendations presented here are an excerpt rom a largerset to be ound in the orthcoming book. Here, we concentrate on the more overarchingconclusions and organise our recommendations into three categories: strengthening oceangovernance; valuing and protecting ocean services; and addressing multiple stressors.

REINHARD

DIRSCHERL/FLPA


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Strengthening ocean governance:A United Nations High Commissioner or Oceans

should be appointed to coordinate research,prioritise action and speak up or the ocean at thehighest levels.

Gaps in the current international ocean gover-nance regimes must be addressed with greaterurgency; in particular governance gaps in areasbeyond national jurisdiction, including the adop-

tion o shared principles, prior environmentalassessment, establishment o Marine ProtectedAreas (MPAs), and a time-bound process ordiscussing equitable benet sharing. Previouslyagreed-to resolutions or governance in areasbeyond national jurisdiction should be ully imple-mented.

Cross-sectoral, cross-scale, network approachesto ocean governance, ocused on strengtheningthe entire management ramework at a regionalor ecosystem level, should be pursued. Inter-agency, regional and multilateral coordinationand capacity would be greatly enhanced by thedevelopment o a global nancing strategy oroceans and coasts.

Valuing and protecting ocean services Ocean services should be included in the valu-

ation o ecosystem unctions and integrated ineconomic assessments and policy, as they arecritical components o the blue economy. Thevaluation o blue carbon activities and ecosys-tems should be pursued under the United Na-tions Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) and ully incorporated into othercarbon nancing mechanisms.

Management strategies or high risk, high impactevents must be given higher priority; a one-in-twenty probability event today could become aone-in-ve probability event by 2050 or 2100.Coastal zone protection, planning and smartgrowth are crucial, as are investments in improvedorecasting, early warning systems and coordinat-ed disaster relie strategies. States should activelyprepare or a sea level rise o 12 metres by theend o this century. The cost benets o takingaction to adapt and protect ourselves now willincrease signicantly with time.

Radically dierent risk assessment models shouldbe developed which view the threats to the ocean and, by extension, impacted communities through the lens o insurance rather than cost-benet analysis. We need to develop insurancemechanisms to cope with extreme events and localdisasters, and develop long-term policies and re-silient management strategies to cope with severalthreats acting together, which themselves unctionas insurance against the risk o catastrophic andirreversible global environmental change.

Addressing multiple stressorsResearch into where multiple stressors are oc-

curring and how they are impacting on marineecosystem resilience and processes should beprioritised. There is an urgent need or the globalcommunity to address these overlapping threatsby embracing multi-dimensional managementschemes and developing strategic planning ap-proaches that allow or the optimisation acrossscales o more than one goal at a time.

Local governments should act to reduce stressorswherever possible, including through promotingthe need or inter-sectoral coordination, especiallyacross land-based and water-based ministries thatdo not typically work together. At the nationallevel, eorts should strive to support well-in-ormed decisions and eective action at the locallevel that appreciate the complexity o multiplestressors, and that aggregate up to the regionaland global level. This will move us collectivelyorward and buy valuable time in the ght againstglobal environmental change.

Innovative international nancial instruments andmechanisms should be developed to strengthenthe ability o vulnerable communities to predict,understand and prepare or the risks posed bymultiple stressors, including rising sea levels andother climate-related threats. Capacity-building at

local, regional and national levels must be givenmore urgent attention to enable communities andstates to address the pressing and escalating issueo multiple stressors on the marine environment.

Carbon emissions must be drastically and urgentlyreduced. Actions such as all those proposedabove can help make a bad situation better, andprepare or a bad situation to become worse, buthumankind must set itsel on a low emissions, lowclimate impact pathway without delay or we areheaded or catastrophe.

Key Recommendations orSustainable Ocean Resources

Key Recommendations

IntroductionKevin Noone [email protected](& writing team)

Ocean AcidifcationCarol Turley [email protected]

Ocean WarmingKevin Noone [email protected] Hall [email protected] Cheung [email protected] Sumaila [email protected]

HypoxiaRobert Daz [email protected] Rosenberg [email protected]

Julie Hall [email protected] Eriksson-Hgg [email protected]

Sea Level RiseKevin Noone [email protected]

PollutionDan Wilhelmsson [email protected]

Katrin Holmstrm [email protected] Lindn [email protected] Thompson [email protected]

Hanna Eriksson-Hgg [email protected]

Overuse o Marine ResourcesRashid Sumaila [email protected] David Rogers [email protected] Cheung [email protected]

The Impacts o Multiple StressorsJulie Hall [email protected] Gruber [email protected]

Robert Daz [email protected] Wilhelmsson [email protected]

Valuing the Ocean EnvironmentFrank Ackerman [email protected] Stanton [email protected]

Planning or SurpriseKevin Noone [email protected] Ackerman [email protected]

The Pacifc OceanWilliam Cheung [email protected] Sumaila [email protected]

Key RecommendationsKateryna M. Wowk [email protected]

Department o Applied Environmental Science(ITM) Stockholm University

Plymouth Marine Laboratory

ITM, Stockholm UniversityNational Institute o Water & Atmospheric Research NZFisheries Centre, The University o British ColumbiaFisheries Centre, The University o British Columbia

Virginia Institute o Marine ScienceDepartment o Biological and Environmental Sciences,University o GothenburgNational Institute o Water & Atmospheric Research NZStockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University

ITM, Stockholm University

Swedish Secretariat or Environmental EarthSystems SciencesEnvironment Department, City o StockholmWorld Maritime UniversityMarine Biology and Ecology Research Centre,University o Plymouth Drake CircusStockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University

Fisheries Centre, University o British ColumbiaSomerville College, University o OxordFisheries Centre, The University o British Columbia

National Institute o Water & Atmospheric ResearchDepartment o Environmental Sciences,

Swiss Federal Institute o Technology ZurichVirginia Institute o Marine ScienceSwedish Secretariat or Environmental EarthSystems Sciences

Stockholm Environment InstituteStockholm Environment Institute

ITM, Stockholm UniversityStockholm Environment Institute

Fisheries Centre, The University o British ColumbiaFisheries Centre, The University o British Columbia

Marine Policy Consultant

List o Authors Afliations

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We must revolutionise our strategiesor governing the oceans and coasts.There is an urgent need or the globalcommunity to create managementplans that are aimed at optimising thesustainable benefts rom marine services

across scales rom local to global.Strategies that address multiple threatsand prepare or high risk, high impactevents must be awarded higher priority.

Kevin J. NooneDepartment o AppliedEnvironmental Science (ITM)Stockholm UniversitySvante Arrhenius vg 8SE 106 91 StockholmSwedenEmail: [email protected]

Ussi Rashid SumailaFisheries Economics ResearchUnitUniversity o British ColumbiaVancouverBC V6T 1Z4CanadaEmail: [email protected]

Robert J. DazVirginia Institu te o MarineScienceCollege o William and MaryGlouster PointVA 23062-1346USAEmail: [email protected]

In partnership with FDSE Funded by the Okeanos Foundation


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Edited by:Kevin Noone

Rashid Sumaila

Robert J Daz

Preview o results rom a book onthreats to the global oceans andthe economic consequences oaction or inaction

Valuing the Ocean

Documents

Transcript of Valuing the Ocean