ValuEngine Weekly:Brocade Comm,Vornado,Transports,and Suttmeier

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Transcript of ValuEngine Weekly:Brocade Comm,Vornado,Transports,and Suttmeier

Page 1: ValuEngine Weekly:Brocade Comm,Vornado,Transports,and Suttmeier

May 2, 2014

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach toinvesting and the tools available from In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to

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VALUATION WARNING: Our models find that overvaluation is at levels typically seen when market pullbacks occur. Overvalued stocks now makeup 72.63% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 28.74% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Fourteen of sixteen sectors are calculated to be overvalued by double digits.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Index Started week Ended week 4 day change 4 day change % ytd

DJIA 16363.2 16558.87 195.67 1.20% -0.18%

NASDAQ 4091.81 4127.45 35.64 0.87% -1.01%

RUSSELL 2000 1127.18 1125.97 -1.21 -0.11% -2.69%

S&P 500 1865 1883.68 18.68 1.00% 1.96%

Summary of VE Stock UniverseStocks Undervalued 27.37%

Stocks Overvalued 72.63%

Stocks Undervalued by 20% 7.67%

Stocks Overvalued by 20% 28.74%

Page 2: ValuEngine Weekly:Brocade Comm,Vornado,Transports,and Suttmeier

SECTOR OVERVIEW

Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12-MReturn

P/ERatio

Aerospace 0.06% 0.07% 0.36% 18.33% overvalued 40.44% 20

Auto-Tires-Trucks 0.26% 0.29% 4.20% 27.49% overvalued 37.79% 19.28

Basic Materials -0.71% -0.65% 3.30% 7.31% overvalued -0.15% 25

Business Services -0.43% -0.36% -0.20% 15.07% overvalued 27.49% 27.03

Computer and Technology 0.06% 0.16% -0.45% 15.93% overvalued 27.94% 29.57

Construction 0.56% 0.82% 0.54% 9.02% overvalued 23.62% 24.14

Consumer Discretionary -0.28% -0.16% -3.50% 14.12% overvalued 26.01% 27.41

Consumer Staples -0.10% -0.07% -0.05% 19.11% overvalued 20.48% 24.55

Finance 0.06% 0.10% 0.67% 12.24% overvalued 9.10% 17.51

Industrial Products -0.37% -0.32% -0.97% 15.84% overvalued 26.43% 22.71

Medical 0.41% 0.51% 3.81% 13.41% overvalued 34.71% 29.15

Multi-Sector Conglomerates 0.07% 0.09% 1.13% 23.23% overvalued 14.40% 17.99

Oils-Energy -0.48% -0.40% 6.78% 20.66% overvalued 25.84% 27.72

Retail-Wholesale -0.14% -0.09% -4.12% 13.89% overvalued 17.57% 25.18

Transportation 0.20% 0.39% 1.92% 24.88% overvalued 33.23% 22.55

Utilities 0.21% 0.23% 1.88% 15.78% overvalued 9.63% 22.57

ValuEngine Newsletters Latest Results

VE Newsletter CurrentMonth Total

S&P500

Last MonthTotal

S&P500

SinceInception

S&P500

Forecast MNS -6.81 2.22 0.52 -0.85 98.33 101.74

Dividend Stock -0.79 0.46 2.23 0.52 18.76 20.81

Small Cap Stock -0.75 0.64 -5.91 0.78 30.41 34.97

View 0.73 1.16 1.72 -0.53 101.59 64.45

Page 3: ValuEngine Weekly:Brocade Comm,Vornado,Transports,and Suttmeier

Sector Talk—TransportationBelow, we present the latest data on leading Transportation Sector stocks from

our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Transportation Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-MRetn(%)

ANW AEGEAN MARINE 9.16 -2.93 56.31

CPA COPA HLDGS SA-A 136.49 -5.75 8.28

SBLK STAR BULK CARRS 12.11 -45.22 93.76

TDW TIDEWATER INC 49.66 -6.25 -3.54

MATX MATSON INC 23.81 -21.21 3.57

Top-Five Transportation Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-MRetn(%)

ANW AEGEAN MARINE 9.16 -2.93 56.31

CPA COPA HLDGS SA-A 136.49 -5.75 8.28

SBLK STAR BULK CARRS 12.11 -45.22 93.76

TDW TIDEWATER INC 49.66 -6.25 -3.54

MATX MATSON INC 23.81 -21.21 3.57

Top-Five Transportation Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-MRetn(%)

CPA COPA HLDGS SA-A 136.49 -5.75 8.28

TRN TRINITY INDS IN 74.29 13.81 84.66

ANW AEGEAN MARINE 9.16 -2.93 56.31

FDX FEDEX CORP 136.24 1.61 48.09

AL AIR LEASE CORP 35.81 0.42 31.22

Page 4: ValuEngine Weekly:Brocade Comm,Vornado,Transports,and Suttmeier

Top-Five Transportation Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-MRetn(%)

YRCW YRC WORLDWD INC 20.94 300 179.57

DHT DHT HOLDINGS 7.74 208.85 80.84

HA HAWAIIAN HLDGS 14.9 103.86 175.42

DAL DELTA AIR LINES 37.12 83.73 120.43

GBX GREENBRIER COS 51.11 76.45 133.91

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Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. delivers industry-leading platforms, solutions, and services for intelligently connecting, managing, and optimizing IT resources in shared storage environments.

ValuEngine updated its recommendation from BUY to STRONG BUY for Brocade Communications Systems on 2014-05-01. Based on the information we have gatheredand our resulting research, we feel that Brocade Communications Systems has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE P/E Ratio and Momentum.

As a bonus to our Weekly Newsletter readers, we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports

Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on Brocade Communications HERE.

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Page 5: ValuEngine Weekly:Brocade Comm,Vornado,Transports,and Suttmeier

What's Hot--Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier in the News

ValuEngine.com Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier has been making the financial media rounds again. Suttmeier is often called upon to provide his analysis of the markets. He was recently featured on Business News Network discussinghis views in the "Bull vs. Bear" debate..

Click the image below to watch Suttmeier's latest appearance on BNN.

Suttmeier Says--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market StrategistRichard Suttmeier

If you have any comments or questions, send them [email protected]

Treasury Yields10-Year--(2.610) Our weekly value level is 2.745 with daily andmonthly pivots at 2.619 and 2.616 and quarterly, annual andsemiannual risky levels at 2.333, 2.263, 1.837 and 1.779.

30-Year Bond – (3.410) Weekly and monthly value levels are 3.506 and 3.586 with a daily pivot at 3.395 and quarterly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 3.305, 3.283, 3.114, 3.107 and 2.624.

Page 6: ValuEngine Weekly:Brocade Comm,Vornado,Transports,and Suttmeier

Commodities and Forex

Comex Gold –(1285.10) Quarterly and monthly value levels are $1215.7 and $1170.4 with a daily pivot at $1292.58 and weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $1312.3, $1747.4, $1818.8 and $1857.1.

Nymex Crude Oil – ($99.41) Daily, monthly and quarterly value levels are $97.15, $90.39 and $89.40 with a weekly pivot at $100.43 and semiannual and annual risky levels at $104.74 and $107.52.

The Euro – (1.3863) Annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3382, 1.3185, 1.2642 and 1.2216 with daily and weekly pivots at 1.3881 and 1.3836, and monthly and annual risky levels at 1.4171 and 1.5512.

Major Indices

Daily Dow: (16559) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 16282, 16245, 14835 and 13467 with quarterly and daily pivots at 16462 and 16564, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 16631.63 and semiannual and monthly risky levels at 16860 and 17,407.

S&P 500 – (1883.7) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with quarterly, weekly and daily pivots at 1853.5, 1855.2 and 1882.8, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 1897.28 and monthly risky level at 2006.7.

NASDAQ – (4127) Quarterly, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 4039, 4000, 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with a daily pivot at 4114, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 4371.71 and monthly risky level at 4581.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (3595) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 3447, 3458, 3456, 3424, 3078 and 2669 with a daily pivot at 3587, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 3738.32, and monthly risky levels at 3960.

Dow Transports – (7719) Quarterly, semiannual, and annual value levels are 7407, 7376, 7256, 7245, 6249 and 5935 with daily and weekly pivots at 7666 and 7713, the April 23 all-time intraday high at 7774.58 and monthly risky level at 8361.

Russell 2000 – (1125.97) Annual value levels are 966.72 and 879.39 with daily, weekly and semiannual pivots at 1121.39, 1123.43, 1133.29 and 1130.29 and a quarterly risky level at 1169.22, the March 4 all-time intraday high at 1212.82 and monthly risky level at 1261.38.

Page 7: ValuEngine Weekly:Brocade Comm,Vornado,Transports,and Suttmeier

The SOX – (573.86) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 548.36, 507.19, 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with daily and monthly pivots at 573.54 and 582.66, the April3 multiyear intraday high at 601.40 and monthly risky level at 625.61.

Dow Utilities: (555.54) Weekly, quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 547.31, 528.10, 524.37, 504.74 and 497.53, with annual and monthly pivots at 548.70 and 549.73, the April 30 all-time intraday high at 558.29 and daily risky level at 558.56.

Stock of the Day

Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) – ($103.16) Vornado Realty Trust is a fully-integrated real estate investment trust. The company owns, directly or indirectly, the following: Office Building Properties; Retail Properties; Merchandise Mart Properties; Temperature Controlled Logistics; and Other Real Estate Investments. It is one of the largest property owners in New York City.

Analysis – Vornado has a Hold rating according to ValuEngine and is 31.52% overvalued with fair value at $78.01 and a one-year price target is $97.96. The daily chart shows overbought stochastics with the stock above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $100.19, $98.56 and 90.53. Semiannual and annual value levels are $96.91 and $91.04 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at $105.75 and $117.63.

Page 8: ValuEngine Weekly:Brocade Comm,Vornado,Transports,and Suttmeier

Richard Suttmeier has been a professional in the US Capital Markets since 1972 transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world. He earned a Bachelor of Industrial Engineering degree from Georgia Institute of Technology in 1966, and a Master of Science, Operations Research, Systems Analysis degree from Brooklyn Polytechnic University in 1970. Over the years Richard appeared many times in the financial media, on networks such as CNBC, CNN, CNNfn, New York 1, Bloomberg TV and radio, Fox Business, Business News Network in Canada, Wall Street Week with Fortune, Yahoo Finance Breakout, and the Bill Mazer Radio Show. Richard has been frequently quoted in USA Today, The NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and The Dow Jones Newswires.

Now YOU can take advantage of the same market and trading expertise as the financialmedia with Richard Suttmeier's ValuTrader Model Portfolio

The ValuTrader Portfolio Newsletter is based on ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier's proprietary market analytics. Suttmeier combines his technical analysis expertise with ValuEngine's proprietary valuation, forecast, and ratings data for more than 4000 equities trading on US markets to come up with a 20 stock portfolio tailored to current market conditions. With ValuTrader, subscribers access Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" strategy with a portfolio designed to function well in both up and down markets.

Every edition of Richard Suttmeier's ValuTrader model portfolio includes technical risk, pivot, and value levels, as well as critical ValuEngine data points--ratings, valuation, and forecast--for the current portfolio. Whenever Suttmeier buys a new stock or sells a current holding, subscribers receive an email alert so that they can take advantage of Suttmeier's proven market-timing expertise. The portfolio may include long as well as short positions according to Suttmeier's read of the markets.

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With Richard Suttmeier'sMorning Briefing, you get

daily analysis of USTreasury Yields, Gold,

Crude Oil, and CurrencyExchange Rates--Dollar,

Yen, Pound, and Euro--aswell as key technical

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