Value Call- MARI- Dec 09'2015
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Transcript of Value Call- MARI- Dec 09'2015
Value Call December 09, 2015
Oil and Gas
TSL Rese
arch
Mari Petroleum Company Limited Glowing in the gloomy night We initiate coverage on Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MARI) with a ‘Buy’ stance. The
rising E&P star would benefit from i) gradual uptick in the entitlement factor in gas prices from
Mari field, ii) exploratory finds in concessions falling under Petroleum Policy 2012 and
iii) anticipated recovery in crude oil prices by FY18. In next 3 years, MARI earnings are likely to
surge by 29% CAGR while revenues CAGR would be above 21%.
We have valued MARI on reserve based DCF with a cost of equity of 15.5% and come up at
June’16 price target of PKR727/share, offering a total return of 28%. The scrip is currently
trading at an attractive forward PE and EV/EBITDAX multiple of 9.1x and 4.4x, respectively.
Entitlement factor gradually rising towards the cliff
Mari field gas price, which is now linked to Arab‐light crude oil price, falls under Petroleum Policy
2001, a formula comparable to Sui field pricing mechanism. However, there is a discount
applicable on gas prices, which is gradually shirking, entitling the company for higher well head gas
prices within a span of 5 years. Hence, the well head gas price would jump semiannually to
USD1.4/mmbtu at a reference crude oil price of USD50/bbl (TSL assumption for FY19) as
entitlement factor discount eliminates in FY19. We calculate PKR23 per share incremental EPS
impact due to rising entitlement factor from current 59.8% to 100% in Jan’19.
Shifting exploratory activities into next gear
Exploratory activities on Hala (Fazl X‐1, stake 35%) and Karak block (stake 40%) have remained
successful and would be out flowing crude oil and gas production of 890bopd and 28mmcfd,
respectively, by FY17. The aforesaid production would have an earnings impact of PKR6.8/share
since the blocks would fall under Petroleum Policy 2012.
Stellar earnings growth going forward
Despite dwindling crude oil prices and related impact on crude linked gas rates, we believe
profits of MARI are likely to jump in FY17 and FY18 to PKR6.9bn (EPS PKR63) and PKR9.9bn (EPS
PKR89). The earnings accretion would stem from rise in entitlement factor (69.9%/83.3% in
FY17/18) in addition to expected upturn in gas and crude oil production.
Eyes on incremental gas production from Mari field
As per Petroleum Policy 2012, if a company enhances its production by 10% from an existing field,
it would qualify for higher well head gas prices under PP2012 on that incremental production.
Currently, MARI is mulling to raise its flows bar by 100‐150mmcfd from Mari field in order to opt for
the PP2012, which offers a massive improvement of 4x in gas prices as opposed to current
PKR80/mmbtu under current applicable GPA arrangement. MARI has applied to Govt. for grant of
PP2012 for this incremental production. In our view, earnings of the company would massively lift
by PKR40/share (target price impact of PKR250/share), assuming crude oil prices at USD40/bbl and
flows of 100mmcfd, if Govt. accepts the request.
Crude prices likely to remain subdued at USD40‐45 till FY18
Recently, OPEC has raised ceiling of crude oil production to 31.5mnbpd which has further weighed
on crude oil prices in international market. We opine OPEC might consider curbing output only if
all key crude oil producers, including Russia and Brazil, join hands with a firm commitment to abide
by the production quota. In short term, slowdown in China, looming recession in Japan, weakness
in the Eurozone and US Shale boom would keep crude oil prices low. We expect Arab light crude oil
price to average at USD40/bbl in FY16/FY17 which would gradually rise to USD50‐55/bbl in next
years.
Please refer to the end of the report for Analyst Certification and other important disclosures.
Usman Riaz AC [email protected] Direct: +92‐21‐35216403
Continued on page 2
Price Performance
Source: Taurus Research
‐
150
300
450
600
750
900
Mar‐13
Jul‐13
Nov‐13
Mar‐14
Jul‐14
Nov‐14
Mar‐15
Jul‐15
Nov‐15
MARI KSE100INDEX
MARI PA BUY
Stock price 568.9
Target price 726.5
27.7%
110
63
Free float 20%
3M Avg. daily value traded (PKRmn) 93.5
3M Avg. daily volume (mn) 0.2
3M High 524
3M Low 363
Key financials PKR bn
FY15A FY16E FY17F FY18F
Revenues 19.4 19.4 23.8 30.4
Oper. Cost 5.4 5.6 6.7 8.6
Explor & Pros. Cost 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.6
Operating Profit 7.8 7.5 9.7 12.9
Finance Cost 1.8 0.4 0.7 0.8
Finance income 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9
PAT 5.7 5.3 6.9 9.9
Key Matrices FY15A FY16E FY17F FY18F
EPS 51.3 47.8 62.8 89.4
DPS 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8
BVPS 104.3 146.9 206.1 293.2
P/E (x) 11.1 11.9 9.1 6.4
P/BV (x) 5.5 3.9 2.8 1.9
Dividend Yield 1% 1% 1% 1%
Earnings growth 43% ‐7% 31% 42%
ROA 9% 8% 9% 12%
ROE 40% 38% 36% 36%
EV/EBITDAX 5.5 5.7 4.4 3.1
Outstanding shares (mn)
Market Cap (PKR bn)
Current upside/(downside)
Value Call TSL Research
MARI: Unlocking new avenues of growth Abandoning the old cost plus formula, Govt. has recently approved international crude oil linked
pricing mechanism for Mari gas field. The incumbent GPA would rewrite the growth story of the
company as it is providing higher realized prices on existing flows along with motivation to
improve production. In addition, the company is mulling to explore new fields which come under
PP2012 (higher realized gas prices). In near future, we foresee impressive profitability growth at
29% CAGR during FY17‐19. The elevation in earnings would stem from i) phased uptick in the
entitlement factor of gas prices from Mari field, ii) exploratory finds in concessions falling under
PP2012 , and iii) likely higher crude oil prices in 2‐3 years. In addition, new mechanism would also
improve cash flows of the company.
Entitlement factor gradually rising towards the cliff
Mari field gas price, which is now linked to Arab‐light crude oil price, falls under the PP2001, a
formula comparable to Sui field pricing mechanism. But; there is a discount applicable on the gas
prices. However, this discount would gradually decline by Jan’19, entitling the company for the
higher well head gas prices. Hence, the well head gas price would jump semiannually reaching its
100% in FY19 to USD1.4/mmbtu at a reference crude oil price of USD50/bbl (TSL assumption for
FY19).
Shifting exploratory activities into next gear
MARI is now aggressively undertaking a multi‐pronged approach to enhance production from the
existing fields and expanding the exploration program. In past two years, the company has
acquired its own 2D/3D seismic unit, 3 land drilling rigs and developed in‐house capabilities in
2D/3D seismic data processing center and technologies.
Apart from Mari gas field, exploratory workings on Hala (Fazl X‐1, stake 35%) and Karak block
(stake 40%) remained spot on and would be out flowing Hydrocarbons in FY17 with a cumulative
crude oil and gas production of 890bopd and 28mmcfd, respectively. The aforesaid production
would have an earnings impact of PKR6.8/share (assuming oil at USD40/bbl) as the blocks would
be monetized under PP2012. Just to mention, we have incorporated incremental flows from
aforesaid blocks from 2nd half FY17 in our model.
Continued on page 3
Mari Gas Price FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Gas Price Zone III (Mari) 2.71 2.76 2.88 3.00 3.12
Final Well head Price 1.36 1.38 1.44 1.50 1.56
Entitlement Discount 56% 70% 83% 97% 100%
Applicable Price 0.77 0.96 1.20 1.45 1.56
Source: Taurus Research
Block Well Stake Status
Mari Mari 100 100% Under dril l ing and testing Bright prospects for gas
Hala Fazl X‐1 35% Final testing phase Condensate (Initial estimates given)
Karak Kalabagh ‐1A 60% Advance testing phase Condensate (Initial estimates given)
Sujawal Sujawal X‐1 100% Advance testing phase Gas discovered, working for target depth
Kohlu Kohlu 30% Suspended Suspended due to security concern
Source: PPIS & Taurus Research
Analyst Remarks
Value Call TSL Research
Eyes on Petroleum Policy 2012 and incremental gas production
As per Petroleum Policy 2012, if a company enhances its production by 10% from an existing field,
it would qualify for higher well head gas prices under PP2012 on that incremental production.
Currently, MARI is mulling to raise its flows bar by 100‐150mmcfd from Mari field in order to opt for
the PP2012, which offers a massive improvement of 4x in gas prices as opposed to current PKR80/
mmbtu under current applicable GPA arrangement.
It is pertinent to mention here that the company has successfully drilled 2 development wells
(MARI 98‐99) while digging on the 3rd well (MARI‐100) is in progress. MARI has applied to Govt. for
grant of PP2012 for this incremental production. In our view, earnings of the company would mas‐
sively lift by PKR40/share (target price impact of PKR250/share), assuming crude oil prices at
USD40/bbl and flows of 100mmcfd, if Govt. accepts the request.
However, we assert that the additional production would outpour by FY17. We have not
incorporated the incremental effect in our valuations as we are awaiting Govt. approval for higher
well head gas prices.
Crude prices likely to remain subdued at USD40‐45 till FY18
As size of OPEC is continuously reducing in the global oil production pie due to competition and
rising production from non‐OPEC countries (US, Brazil and Russia), any production cut from OPEC,
to prop up prices, may be aggressively compensated by other players. Recently, OPEC has raised
ceiling of crude oil production to 31.5mnbpd which has further weighed on crude oil prices in inter‐
national market. We opine OPEC might consider curbing output only if all key crude oil producers,
including Russia and Brazil, join hands with a firm commitment to abide by the production quota.
In short term, slowdown in China, looming recession in Japan, weakness in the Eurozone and US
Shale boom would keep crude oil prices low. We expect Arab light crude oil price to average at
USD40/bbl in FY16/FY17 which would gradually rise to USD50‐55/bbl in next years.
Continued on page 4
Petroleum Policy 2012 (Gas Prices in USD/mmbtu)
Crude Price (USD/bbl) 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00
Zone 1 3.72 4.34 4.96 5.33 5.70 5.95 6.20
Zone 2 3.55 4.14 4.73 5.09 5.44 5.68 5.92
Zone 3 3.38 3.94 4.51 4.85 5.18 5.41 5.63
Source: PPIS & Taurus Research
World Crude Demand & Supply (mb/d)
Source: EIA & Taurus Research
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
3Q2013
4Q2013
1Q2014
2Q2014
3Q2014
4Q2014
1Q2015
2Q2015
3Q2015
Demand Supply
OPEC crude oil production (mn bbl/d)
Source: EIA & Taurus Research
18
22
26
30
34
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
Value Call TSL Research
MARI: BUY with TP of PKR727/share
Immense growth in profitability
We initiate coverage on Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MARI) with a ‘Buy’ stance. The rising
E&P star would benefit from i) gradual uptick in the entitlement factor in gas prices from Mari field,
ii) exploratory finds in concessions falling under Petroleum Policy 2012 and iii) anticipated
recovery in crude oil prices by FY18.
In next 3 years, we expect company revenues would grow by 21% CAGR to PKR34.3bn by FY19.
Further, margins would also improve due to rising entitlement factor and application of PP2012 on
production from new blocks. As a result, MARI earnings are likely to surge by 29% CAGR to
PKR11.3bn by FY19.
However, dividends would remain curtailed in the range of PKR5‐6/share owing to restriction on
payout till FY24. Till that period, company would reinvest the retained profits for its exploration
and development activities. In another scenario, any re‐negotiation between MARI and the Govt.,
though unlikely, on dividend policy may unclip payouts to PKR75‐85/share.
We have valued MARI on reserve based DCF with a cost of equity of 15.5% and come up at June’16
price target of PKR727/share, offering a total return of 28%. The scrip is currently trading at an
attractive forward PE and EV/EBITDAX multiple of 9.1x and 4.4x, respectively.
Gas production to grow to 660mmcfd in FY18; up 7%
In past 3 years, MARI gas flows have improved by 3% CAGR and averaged at 613mmcfd in FY15.
The prime contributor to this production was Mari gas field, wherein gas production from SML
formation averaged around 500mmcfd while Mari Deep flows remained at above 93mmcfd. On the
flip side, gas flows from the remaining fields have remained meager around 20mmcfd.
Simultaneously, crude oil production has also jumped up to 1.2kbpd in FY15 from 0.5kbpd in FY13.
We expect production to grow to 660mmcdf and 1.8kbbl during by FY18, thanks to upcoming pro‐
duction from Kalabagh and Fazl X‐1. (We have not considered incremental flows from Mari field).
Lower crude oil prices would keep FY16 earnings in check
Though dwindling crude oil prices and related impact on crude linked gas rates would hurt
revenues and profits of MARI in FY16, rise in entitlement factor (56.5% in FY16) in addition to 7%
YoY and 11% YoY expected upturn in gas and crude oil production, respectively, would partially
offset the impact of lower crude oil price. We expect EPS of PKR47.8 for MARI in FY16, down 6.7%.
Key Risks
Further slide in crude oil prices
Disruption in production flows from Mari field would adversely hit company’s
profitability
Exploration expense or dry well cost
Suspension of drilling efforts in Baluchistan due to security concerns
Movement in PKR could impact revenues as prices are benchmarked on
international crude oil prices
Continued on page 5
Mari's Production (Crude bpd & Gas mmcfd)
Source: Company Accouts & Taurus Research
‐
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
‐
100
200
300
400
500
600
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
Gas Crude oil (RHS)
Value Call TSL Research
Continued on page 6
Mari ‐ Income Statement (PKR mn) FY15A FY16E FY17F FY18F FY19F
Net Sales 19,376 19,415 23,803 30,439 34,314
Operating Costs 5,396 5,602 6,680 8,644 9,780
Royalty 2,519 2,524 3,095 3,957 4,461
Exploration & Prospecting Costs 3,194 3,833 4,217 4,638 5,102
Other charges 499 450 592 796 903
Other income 55 450 450 450 450
Operating Profit 7,823 7,455 9,671 12,853 14,517
Finance income 517 363 465 948 1,582
Finance Cost 1,788 434 676 768 872
Profit before Taxation 6,552 7,385 9,460 13,033 15,227
Profit after Taxation 5,650 5,271 6,929 9,861 11,268
Balance Sheet (PKR mn) FY15A FY16E FY17F FY18F FY19F
Issued Subscribed & Paid ‐up 1,103 1,103 1,103 1,103 1,103
Exploration and development reserve 8,241 9,574 9,806 10,187 10,519
Profit & loss account 36 4,700 11,001 20,222 30,851
Total Equity 11,496 16,195 22,727 32,329 43,290
Redeemable preference shares 9,290 9,290 9,290 9,290 9,290
Long‐term Liabil ities 14,759 13,984 14,478 15,027 14,027
Trade and Other Payables 36,656 38,489 40,414 42,434 44,556
Current Liabil ities 39,399 39,931 41,856 43,877 45,998
Total Equity + Liabilites 65,654 70,110 79,061 91,233 103,315
Property Plant & Equipment 9,775 11,658 11,979 12,301 12,823
Development & Decommisioning assets 2,188 2,777 3,661 4,254 5,026
Exploration & Evaluation Assets 9,400 9,574 9,806 10,187 10,519
Total Non Current Assets 23,786 26,553 28,114 29,544 31,308
Stores & Spares 1,718 1,804 1,894 1,989 2,088
Trade Debts 32,355 35,591 39,150 43,065 47,371
Cash & bank balances 4,901 2,280 6,020 12,752 18,665
Total Current Assets 41,868 43,557 50,946 61,689 72,007
Total Assets 65,654 70,110 79,061 91,233 103,315
Mari ‐ Key Ratios FY15A FY16E FY17F FY17F FY17F
EPS 51.3 47.8 62.8 89.4 102.2
DPS 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.8
BVPS 104.3 146.9 206.1 293.2 392.7
P/E (x) 11.1 11.9 9.1 6.4 5.6
P/BV (x) 5.5 3.9 2.8 1.9 1.4
Dividend Yield 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Earnings growth 43% ‐7% 31% 42% 14%
ROA 9% 8% 9% 12% 12%
ROE 40% 38% 36% 36% 30%
EV/EBITDA 7.5 8.2 6.0 4.0 3.1
EV/EBITDAX 5.5 5.7 4.4 3.1 2.4
EV/Sales 3.5 3.7 2.8 2.0 1.6
Source: Company Accounts & Taurus Research
Value Call TSL Research
Continued on page 7
Flash back on MARI’s well head gas prices As per former Mari field GPA (Gas Pricing Agreement), MARI’s top‐line was determined from the
sale of liquid as well as gas flows, which should be ample to deliver the approved percentage return
on shareholder’s equity after accounting for all the expenses such as i) operating expenditure
(including royalty, depreciation, amortization and interest expense), ii) capital expenditures for the
year deducting depreciation and amortization, 3) minimum working capital requirements,
4) principal repayments, 5) other expenses (WPPF and WFF), and 6) current year taxation.
Old GPA clipped shareholders’ earnings
In old mechanism, the company’s financial performance was primarily reliant on its production
levels, paid up capital & undistributed reserves. To elaborate further, the company’s earnings had
two components; first was the distributable guaranteed return (minimum 30% at 425mmcfd which
was increased by 1% for every 20mmcfd incremental production up to maximum to 45%) while the
second component (GPA earnings) was required to be retained by the company to meet its capital
expenditures, debt obligations and upholding some pre‐determined ratios (current ratio of 1:1.2,
debt service ratio 1:1.5, and long term debt equity ratio not greater than 70:30).
Restricted exploratory activities
Prior to 2001, MARI was a solely a production company. Afterwards, the company was allowed to
initiate the exploration program with the support of GoP. Initially, the exploration cost had a
ceiling of USD20mn which was than raised to USD40mn gradually. Consequently, the aforesaid
activities remained lackluster and the company counted on Mari gas field for 99% of its production.
2014: EEC approved crude oil price linked new formula ECC has revised the gas price agreement of Mari Petroleum Company Limited, effective from
FY15, which is now linked to Arab‐light crude oil prices in international market.
Key conditions and its application in new formula
Gas prices of Mari gas field are now linked to Arab‐light crude oil prices, more or less resembling to
Sui field; however, with a discount of 50%. It is pertinent to highlight here that Mari gas field is
entitled to only 53.1% (entitlement factor) of this price at the moment, which would gradually rise
to 100% by Jan’19 .
The Company has issued a special dividend to GoP and general public in the shape of
non‐voting, non‐cumulative, unlisted redeemable preference shares of worth PKR9.67bn with a
profit rate linked to 1 year KIBOR plus a spread of 300bps. In addition, MARI has also converted
PKR920mn into preference shares in favor of GoP, which was appearing as GoP investment in
seismic unit.
Now, all related risks & rewards by endeavoring exploration and development activities would be
borne by the company as the Govt. has taken its hands off from providing USD40mn/year funds to
carry out exploration and development activities.
Dividend distribution would remain in line with old RoE based formula for upcoming 10 years
ending FY24 with payout hovering around PKR5‐6/share till FY24. Further, additional profits would
be reinvested in undertaking and expanding exploration & development activities.
Value Call TSL Research
About the Company
Mari Gas Field was originally owned by Pakistan Stanvac petroleum project, a joint venture formed
in 1954 between Government of Pakistan and M/s Esso Eastern, having 49% and 51% ownership
interest, respectively. The first gas discovery was made by the Joint Venture in 1957 while produc‐
tion from the field started in 1967. In 1983, M/s Esso Eastern transferred its entire share to Fauji
Foundation, which set up a public limited company for the purpose of acquiring the assets and li‐
abilities of the Project.
In 1984, MARI Gas Company Limited (MGCL) was incorporated with Fauji Foundation, Govern‐
ment of Pakistan and OGDCL as its shareholders having 40%, 40%, and 20% shareholding, respec‐
tively. Upon formation, the company took over the assets, liabilities and operational control of
Mari Gas Field. In 1985, the company commenced business in its own name and was given gas
price through MARI Gas Wellhead Price Agreement (MARI GPA). In 1994, the Government di‐
vested half of its holding and the company became listed on all the stock exchanges of Pakistan.
Mari operated as a production company, developing in phases the already discovered Habib Rahi
Reservoir in Mari Gas Field for supply of gas to new fertilizer plants. Simultaneously, the Company
also pursued appraisal activities within its MARI D&P Lease area by drilling step‐out wells to deter‐
mine the extent of Habib Rahi Reservoir.
In 2001, the Company expanded its operations and entered into exploration business. The com‐
pany is now operating eleven exploration and production assets (two D&P leases and nine oper‐
ated blocks) and has partnership with leading national and international E&P companies in six non‐
operated blocks. Moreover, the name of the Company was changed from "MARI Gas Company
Limited" to "MARI Petroleum Company Limited" (MPCL) in November 2012.
A major development during 2014 was approval of five year extension in Mari lease period. This
means that MPCL would enjoy the development and production rights in the Lease Area till 2019.
The extension will enable MPCL to enhance the recovery and produce more natural gas which is
critically needed in the Country.
Mari's Shareholdings Pattern
Source: Company Accounts & Taurus Research
60.0%20.0%
18.4%
1.6%
Fauji Foundation OGDC GoP Others
Analyst Certification
The research analyst(s), denoted by AC on the cover of this report, who exclusively reports to the research department head, primarily involved in the preparation, writing and publication of this report, certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report are unbiased and independent opinions of the Research Analyst which accurately reflect his/her personal views about all of the subject companies/securities and (2) no part of his/her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
The research analyst or any of its close relatives do not have a financial interest in the securities of the subject company aggregating more than 1% of the value of the company and the research analyst or its close relative have neither served as a director/officer in the past 3 years nor received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months. The Research analyst or its close relatives have not traded in the subject secu‐rity in the past 7 days and will not trade in next 5 days.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared by Taurus Securities Ltd (hereinafter referred as TSL) and is provided for information purposes only. Under no cir‐cumstances is to be used or considered as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained therein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, we make no representation as to its accuracy or com‐pleteness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of professional advisers who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this report. Statements regarding future prospects may not be realized while all such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. TSL recommends investors to independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and it encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor.
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Value Call TSL Research
Taurus Contact DetailsCORPORATE OFFICE
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RESEARCH
Zeeshan Afzal Head of Research Strategy, Economy 021‐35216403 [email protected]
Rohit Kumar Senior Equity Analyst Banks, Cements 021‐111828787 Ext: 202 [email protected]
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Mehwish Zafar Research Associate Power 021‐111828787 Ext: 203 [email protected]
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porting period of the company (unless otherwise mentioned in the report). Ratings are updated daily and can therefore change daily. They can
change because of a move in the stock's price, a change in the analyst's estimate of the stock's fair value, a change in the analyst's assessment of a
company's business risk, or a combination of any of these factors.
Frequently Used Acronyms
TP Target Price DDM Dividend Discount Model
FCF Free Cash Flows FCFE Free Cash Flows to Equity
FCFF Free Cash Flows to Firm PE Price to Earnings ratio
PBv Price to Book ratio BVPS Book Value per Share
EPS Earnings per Share DPS Dividend per Share
ROE Return on Equity ROA Return on Assets
Value Call TSL Research