Valuation Week6!1!2011

8/2/2019 Valuation Week6!1!2011

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Assoc Prof. Dr. Pornanong Budsaratragoon 1

The Appeal of Common Stocks( Equity)

Residual Owners: stockholders of a firm are the owners, who are entitled to dividend income and a prorated

share of the firms earnings only after all the firms other obligations have been met Stocks allow investors to tailor investments to meet individual needs and preferences.

Stocks may provide a steady stream of current income through dividends.

Stocks may increase in value over time throughcapital gains.

Par Value: the stated, or face, value of a stock

Mainly an accounting term and not very useful to investors

Book Value: the amount of stockholders equity

The difference between the companys assets minus the companys liabilities and preferred stock

Market Value: the current price of the stock in the stock market

(Equity) Market Capitalization: the overall current value of the company in the stock market

Total number of shares outstanding multiplied by the market value per share

Investment Value: the amount that investors believe the stock should be trading for, or what they think itsworth

Probably the most important measure for a stockholder


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Common Stock Ratios

Earnings Per Share: the amount of annualearnings available to common stockholders,stated on a per-share basis

Earnings are important to stock price

Earnings help determine dividend payouts

Dividend yield !Annual dividends received per share

Current market price of the stock

EPS !

Net profit

after taxes Preferred dividends

Number of shares of

common stock outstanding

Dividend Yield: a measure to relate dividendsto share price on a percentage basis

Indicates the rate of current income earnedon the investment dollar

Convenient method to compare incomereturn to other investment alternatives

Dividend Payout Ratio: the portion ofearnings per share (EPS) that a firm pays outas dividends Companies are not required to pay dividends

Some companies have high EPS, but reinvestall money back into company

Dividend payout ratio !Dividends per share

Earnings per share


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Common Stock Ratios

Price/Equity Ratio (P/E): showshow the stock market is pricingthe companys common stock One of most widely used

ratios in common stockselection

Often used in stock valuationmodels

Higher ratio: more expensive Lower ratio: less expensive

P/E !Market price of common stock

EPS

Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B):compares stock price to book valueto see how aggressively the stockis being priced

Higher ratio: stock is fully-pricedor overpriced

Lower ratio: stock may be fairlypriced or underpriced

Price-to-book-value !Market price of common stock

Book value per share


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Sometimes You Win,

Sometimes You Lose


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Types of Stock

Blue Chip Stocks: financially strong, high-quality stocks with long and stable records

of earnings and dividends

Companies are leaders in their industries

Relatively lower risk due to financial stability

of company

Popular with investing public looking for steady growth potential, perhaps dividend income

Provide shelter during unsettled markets Examples: Wal-Mart, Proctor & Gamble, Microsoft, United Parcel Service, Pfizer and 3M

Company

Income Stocks: stocks with long and sustained records of paying higher-than average

dividends

Good for investors looking for relatively safe and high level of current income

Dividends tend to increase over time (unlike interest payments on bonds)

Some companies pay high dividends because they offer limited growth potential

More subject to interest rate risk

Examples: Verizon, Conagra Foods, Pitney Bowes, R.R. Donnelley, Bank of America and AmSouth

Bancorp


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Example of Blue Chip Stocks


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Assoc Prof. Dr. Pornanong Budsaratragoon

Stock Symbol 2010 Close Price H1 2011 Close Price Target Price 2011 H1 Performance (%) Upside Potential (%)

SCC 341 353 401.45 3.52% 13.73%

BKI 249 250 240 0.40% -4.00%

PTTEP 168 171 207 1.79% 21.05%

BANPU 792 716 891.83 -9.60% 24.56%

ADVANC 85 104 113.13 22.35% 8.78%

TPC 30.75 29.75 23.11 -3.25% -22.32%

SCCC 234 214 252.5 -8.55% 17.99%

LH 6.45 5.75 7.14 -10.85% 24.17%

MINT 11.8 11.4 15.29 -3.39% 34.12%

BGH 46.5 52.75 55.49 13.44% 5.19%

KBANK 125.5 123 157.81 -1.99% 28.30%

TVO 32.5 24.9 31.53 -23.38% 26.63%

INTUCH (SHIN) 29.25 32.75 43.9 11.97% 34.05%

BBL 147 158 200.98 7.48% 27.20%

STANLY 181 166.5 196.86 -8.01% 18.23%

DCC 66 46.75 59.22 -29.17% 26.67%

SE-ED 10.6 10N.A. -5.66%N.A.

Updated : the old list


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SET Top 10 Dividend Yield 2010

Symbol Dividend Yield (%)

SVI 27.12

UPF 20.07

URBNPF 17.98

MGE 15.77ADVANC 13.27

LEE 11.11

MJD 10.58

NIPPON 10.33

LUXF 10

CTARAF 9.94

KYE 9.88

MAI Top 10 Dividend Yield 2010

Symbol Dividend Yield (%)

SALEE 11.44

MBAX 10.99

LVT 10.37

TRT 8.96UBIS 8.22

2S 8.01

JUBILE 7.76

QLT 7.02

GFM 6.9

BOL 6.66


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2552 SET

ZMICO 28.67TISCOB 23.08

CSL 22.98AI 19.95

TMT 19.05PSL 17.02

UP 15.82UPOIC 15.38JTS 14.6SFP 14.29

2552 Mai

DM 10.71GFM 10.55

SIMAT 9.35LVT 8.94

CHUO 8.48TRT 8.02

UEC 7.91TAPAC 7.69L&E 7.57AGE 7.52


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SET Ranking 2010

Symbol Close % Change Market Capital (Baht) P/E (Times) P/BV (Times) Dividend Yield (%)

SVI 3.4 63.46 6,369,812,854.60 9.18 2.59 27.12

UPF 74.75 22.54 560,625,000.00 7.09 1.6 20.07URBNPF 5.15 -31.79 370,800,000.00 N/A 0.58 17.98

MGE 6.34 -43.39 1,141,200,000.00 N/A 3.1 15.77

ADVANC 85 -1.73 252,456,471,815.00 13.39 4.76 13.27

LEE 3.24 -14.29 2,381,562,000.00 9.84 1.2 11.11

MJD 2.82 -8.44 1,985,443,560.00 7.22 0.81 10.58

NIPPON 24.2 5.22 295,240,000.00 N/A 1.06 10.33

LUXF 6.5 -23.53 1,277,250,000.00 N/A 0.64 10

CTARAF 8.6 8.86 2,752,000,000.00 N/A 0.77 9.94

KYE 215 0.47 4,730,000,000.00 7.18 1.45 9.88

SPACK 4.06 26.87 1,218,000,000.00 9.07 1.68 9.85

EPCO 1.99 23.6 1,025,666,299.99 8.06 1.5 9.8

BCP 18.6 24.83 21,888,907,018.80 7.81 0.85 9.62

PRECHA 1.25 -13.19 420,000,000.00 5.46 0.71 9.6

SSF 6 -13.67 1,619,994,000.00 14.06 1.12 9.33

SIRI 5.55 29.67 8,273,016,990.60 5.81 0.81 9.26SPF 9.7 16.17 9,215,000,000.00 N/A 0.88 9.18

GL 24.6 -1.6 1,387,858,101.60 5.58 1.36 9.07

PSL 18.2 -3.19 18,919,274,920.00 16.64 1.13 9.07

GOLDPF 8.2 7.89 1,689,200,000.00 N/A 0.72 9.06

QHOP 8.15 14.79 1,559,095,000.00 N/A 0.78 8.76

PFFUND 9.8 -2.97 509,600,000.00 N/A 0.93 8.57


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Symbol Close % Change Market Capital (Baht) P/E (Times) P/BV (Times) Dividend Yield (%)

ZMICO 1.82 -5.21 1,517,689,138.42 44.82 0.73 8.36

QHPF 9.4 14.63 7,491,800,000.00 N/A 0.85 8.28

INTUCH 29.25 6.36 93,631,700,243.25 13.44 3.4 8.21CFRESH 4.88 29.79 2,169,233,200.00 11.96 1.58 8.19

JCT 55 5.77 742,500,000.00 8.37 1.22 8.18

FUTUREPF 12.5 28.87 5,916,451,250.00 N/A 1.17 8.17

PTSEC 24 42.01 5,124,000,000.00 6.92 1.39 8.13

SENA 2.08 9.47 1,404,000,000.00 5.64 0.89 8.11

MNRF 9.8 1.03 1,053,500,000.00 N/A 0.86 8.11

PRANDA 6.5 34.85 2,604,344,301.00 9.32 0.95 8.09KEST 15.5 26.02 8,847,624,750.00 11.63 2.01 8.05

CHOTI 177 30.15 1,327,500,000.00 7.88 0.99 7.91

STPI 27 92.86 9,923,744,619.00 4.57 2.49 7.86

FANCY 2.04 -9.73 958,800,000.00 11.19 0.68 7.84

CSL 5.3 72.08 3,141,541,477.50 9.62 3.16 7.65

GYT 400 57.48 2,960,000,000.00 4.59 0.94 7.5

CPL 33.5 17.54 884,399,832.50 9.37 0.92 7.46

MNIT2 9.95 -0.5 999,676,500.00 N/A 0.94 7.45TMT 6.05 15.24 2,571,250,000.00 9.92 1.47 7.44

PT 1.35 12.5 191,625,035.85 381.72 0.94 7.41

SIRIPF 9.9 0 856,350,000.00 N/A 0.97 7.35

MNIT 8 -16.67 1,104,000,000.00 N/A 0.73 7.31

BAT-3K 61.75 -3.52 1,235,000,000.00 10.74 0.8 7.29

JMART 3.16 89.22 948,000,000.00 10.44 1.64 7.28

TPA 62 -1.59 753,300,000.00 15.05 1.28 7.26


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Name/Year

Dividend Payout Ratio

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

BEC WORLD 91.46 92.92 93.75 98.48 100

GENERAL ENV.CVT. 50 37.5 100 100 100

INTERNET THAILAND 50 50 50 100 100IT CITY 66.67 69.39 100 100 100

OHTL 89.18 89.18 89.18 94.23 100

PRECIOUS SHIPPING 25.02 56.11 58.95 61.43 100

TRINITY WATTHANA 71.43 33.78 0 0 100

ADVANCED INFO SER. 98.13 98.13 98.13 98.13 99.86

MFC-NICHADA THANI PR.FD. 99.84 99.84 99.84 99.84 99.84

UNION PIONEER FABRIC 96.94 98.68 98.68 98.23 99.3

KIM ENG SECS. 88.78 88 84.21 99.21 99.21

SIAM COMMERCIAL SAMAGGI 88.24 86.75 0 0 99.01

UNION PLASTIC 75.3 75.3 93.63 93.63 99.01

CAPITAL NOMURA SECS. 80.54 83.92 87.21 98.96 98.96

SE-EDUCATION 74.63 98.25 83.33 98.51 98.51

KHON KAEN SUGAR 50 40.74 40 25.86 98.04

EASTERN PRINTING 0 0 78.85 92.86 97.92

ASIASOFT 0 0 91.3 96.67 96.78THAI INDUSTRIAL FD.1 95.43 69.83 69.83 95.89 95.89

SEAFRESH INDUSTRY 100 100 100 95.35 95.35

CPN RETAIL GW.LH.PR.FD. 94.2 93.76 87.61 87.61 94.89

CP ALL 83.33 83.33 81.08 72.07 94.59

GRAND CANAL LAND 67.57 69.45 93.76 93.76 93.76

SIAM CITY CEMENT 85.21 99.64 79.77 85.87 93.7

THAI POLY ACRYLIC 77.52 77.52 77.52 89.29 93.46


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Name/Year

Dividend Payout Ratio

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

PATUM RICE MILL & GRNY. 98.81 58.14 92.59 92.59 92.59

UNITED PALM OIL IND. 62.63 93.9 97.75 94.34 92.11

MCOT 73.06 79.63 89.39 89.11 91.79

DHIPAYA INSURANCE 68.97 69.83 60.44 65.57 91.62SUB SRI THAI 90.48 92 81.08 31.91 90.91

SHIN 90.59 90.59 90.59 90.59 90.59

EASTERN COML.LEASING 49.02 0 82.64 86.58 90.36

KGHSG.TRDG.FRZ.FOOD 59.9 58.65 59.91 63.69 90.08

SIAM MAKRO 59.65 97.58 93.12 90.41 89.29

FANCY WOOD INDUSTRIES 0 0 0 88.89 88.89

LAGUNA RESORTS & HOTELS 19.03 26.42 33.23 62.5 88.44

MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP 84.78 73.94 90.14 89.74 87.91

MFC ASSET MANAGEMENT 82.19 72.92 72.92 84.16 87.5

KGI SECURITIES 77.78 70.59 83.33 83.33 86.84

MINOR INTERNATIONAL 31.72 28.46 40.68 53.69 86.57

S & P SYNDICATE 77.52 85.71 100 89.29 85.75

BANGSAPHAN BARMILL 86.96 86.96 86.96 80 85.71

PATO CHEMICAL IND. 91.12 82.9 93.05 84.82 85.5

DYNASTY CERAMIC 69.78 70.42 76.69 85.25 85.25LAND AND HOUSES 82.05 100 75 87.18 85

THAITHEPAROS 95.94 82.11 83.97 84.59 84.59

MODERNFORM GROUP 69.93 80 70.65 80.21 84.23

CHIANGMAI FRZ.FOODS 80.88 100 80.49 90.91 83.33

THAI OPTICAL GROUP 45.83 58.82 73.53 89.29 83.33

VIBHAVADI MEDICAL 74.83 84.51 80 84.21 83.33


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Types of Stock (contd) Growth Stocks: stocks that experience high

rates of growth in operations and earnings Have sustained rate of growth in

earnings above general market Investors expect higher price

appreciation due to increasing earnings Riskier investment because price may

fall if earnings growth cannot bemaintained

May include blue chip stocks as well asspeculative stocks

Typically pay little or no dividends

Tech Stocks: stocks representing thetechnology sector of the market

Range from speculative stocks ofsmall companies that have nevershown a profit to blue chip stocks oflarge companies that are growth-oriented

Potential for attractive returns

Considerable risk and volatility

Difficult to put value on due to erratic

or no earnings

Speculative Stocks: stocks thatoffer potential for substantial priceappreciation, usually due to some

special situation such as a newproduct

Companies lack sustainedtrack record of business andfinancial success

Earnings may be uncertain orhighly unstable

Potential for substantial priceappreciation

Stock price subject to wideswings up and downin value

Cyclical Stocks: stocks whose earnings and overallmarket performance are closely linked to the generalstate of the economy

Stock price tends to move up and down with thebusiness cycle

Tend to do well when economy is growing,especially in early stages of economic recovery

Tend to do poorly in slowing economy

Best for investors willing to move in and out ofmarket as economy changes

Defensive Stocks: stocks that tend tohold their value, and even do well,when the economy starts to falter

Stock price remains stable orincreases when general economy

is slowing Products are staples that peopleuse in good times and bad times,such as electricity, beverages,foodsand drugs

Gold stocks are a form ofdefensive stock

Best for aggressive investorslooking for parking place

during slow economy


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Types of Stock

Small-Cap Stocks:small companies with asmall number of marketcapitalizations

Provide opportunityfor above-average

returns(or losses)

Usually do not have afinancial track record

Earnings tend to growin spurts and can havedramatic impact on

stock price Usually not widely-

traded; liquidity isissue

Initial PublicOfferings (IPOs)

Mid-Cap Stocks:medium-sized companieswith an average numberof market capitalizations Provide opportunity for

greater capital

appreciationthan Large-Cap stocks,but less price volatilitythan Small-Cap stocks

Usually have long-termtrack records for profitsand stock valuation

Baby Blues offer

same characteristics ofBlue Chip stocksexcept size

Large-Cap Stocks:large companies usuallyinclude in SET50

Number of companiesis smaller, but accountfor 80% to 90% of the

total market value Bigger is not

necessarily better

Tend to lag behindsmall-cap and mid-cap stocks, buttypically have less

volatility


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What is Security Analysis?

(Intrinsic value)

()


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<

= >


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Present Value of Dividends (DDM) Present Value of Operating Cash Flow

Present Value of Free Cash Flow

Price/Earnings Ratio (PE)

Price/Cash flow ratio (P/CF)

Price/Book Value Ratio (P/BV)

Price/Sales Ratio (P/S)

1*E

PEP!

t

t

t

k

CF

P)^1(

1

!

g

!


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Top Down Approach to

Traditional Security Analysis

Step 1: Economic Analysis

State of overall economy

Step 2: Industry Analysis Outlook for specific industry

Level of competition in industry

Step 3: Fundamental Analysis

Financial condition of specific company

Historical behavior of specific companys stock


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Why is a Three-Step Valuation Approach

1. General economic influences

Decide how to allocate investment funds among countries, and within countries

to bonds, stocks, and cash

2. Industry influences

Determine which industries will prosper and which industries will suffer on a

global basis and within countries

3. Company analysis

Determine which companies in the selected industries will prosper and which

stocks are undervalued

Does the Three-Step Process Work?

Studies indicate that most changes in an individual firms earnings can be attributed to

changes in aggregate corporate earnings and changes in the firms industry

Studies have found a relationship between aggregate stock prices and various economic

series such as employment, income, or production


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Efficient Market Hypothesis

Efficient Market: the concept that the market is so

efficient in processing new information that securities

trade very close to or at their correct values at all

times

Efficient market advocates believe:

Securities are rarely substantially mispriced in

the marketplace

No security analysis is capable of finding mispricedsecurities more frequently than using random chance


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Levels of Efficient Markets

Weak Form Past data on stock prices are of no use in predicting future stock

price changes

Everything is random

Should simply use a buy-and-hold strategy

Semi-strong Form Abnormally large profits cannot be consistently earned using public

information

Any price anomalies are quickly found out and the stock marketadjusts

Strong Form There is no information, public or private, that allows investors to

consistently earn abnormally high profits


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Market Anomalies

Calendar Effects Stocks returns may be closely tied to the time of year or time of week

Questionable if really provide opportunity

Examples: January effect, weekend effect

Small-Firm Effect

Size of a firm impacts stock returns Small firms may offer higher returns than larger firms, even after adjusting

for risk

Earnings Announcements

Stock price adjustments may continue after earnings adjustments have beenannounced

Unusually good quarterly earnings reports may signal buying opportunity

P/E Effect

Uses P/E ratio to value stocks

Low P/E stocks may outperform high P/E stocks, even after adjusting forrisk


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Who Needs Security Analysis

in an Efficient Market?

Fundamental analysis is still important because:

All of the people doing fundamental analysis is thereason the market is efficient

Financial markets may not be perfectly efficient

Pricing errors are inevitable


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Step 1: Economic Analysis

A study of general economic conditions that isused in the valuation of common stock.

Stock prices are heavily influenced by the state of the

economy and by economic events.

Economy Company Profits Stock Prices


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Business Cycle

26

Phase Economy F &M policy Confidence Capital Market

Initial

recovery

Inflation still declining Stimulatory

fiscal policy

Starts to

rebound

Short rate low/declining

bond yields

bottoming/stock prices

strongly rise

Early

upswing

Healthy economic

growth: Inflation remains

low

Increasing Short rate moving/ bond

yields stable to up

slightly/stock prices

trending upwards

Late

upswing

Inflation gradually picks

up

Policy

becomes

restrictive

Boom Short rate and bond

yields rising//stock prices

topping out, often volatile

Slowdown Inflation continues to

accelerate; Inventory

correction begins

Drops Short rate peaking/ bond

yields topping out and

starting to decline/stock

prices decline

Recession Production declines;

Inflation peaks

Weak Short rate declining/

bond yields dropping/stock

prices bottoming and then

start to rise


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(Gross domesticproduct : GDP)

(Government

spending : G) / ( Public debt)

(Unemploymentrate)

(Inflation rate)

(Interest rate) (Money supply : M) (Sentiment ) (Credit rating)

(ImportantEconomic Series)

(Government Policy)

(Fiscalpolicy) (Monetarypolicy) (Supply

side policy)


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(Growth in industrial production)

( Change in

term structure) (Oil price index) (Exchange rate) ( Stock price index)


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( LeadingIndicators)

(Cyclical Indicator Approach to Forecastingthe Economy)

global

economy

(CoincidentIndicators)

(LaggingIndicator )


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AssocProf.Dr.PornanongBudsaratragoon

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AssocProf.Dr.PornanongBudsaratragoon

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(Demand) (Supply)- - - - / -

/

Defensive Industry Cyclical Industry


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1980 1990

1997 2000 2006 2008

S&L Crisis S&L Crisis Asia Crisis

Dot.Com

Crisis

9/11

Sub Prime

Crisis

A Crisis comes once every 5-10 years

Bubbles always begin with lots of cash looking for better returns and always

end in tears.

The simple way to keep the money machine moving to the goal of better return is

to lower lending standard.

20092010

Sovereign

Debt Crisis???

Crisis

2xxx


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Other Key Economic Variables

Economic Variable Change Stock Market Effect

Inflation Increase

Decrease

Corporate Profits Increase

Decrease

Unemployment Increase

Decrease

Federal Budget Surplus

Deficit


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Other Key EconomicVariables (contd)

Economic Variable Change Stock Market Effect

Currency value Strong investments / trade

Weak

investments /

trade

Interest Rates Increasing

Decreasing

Money Supply Moderate Growth

Rapid Growth


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Sources for Economic Outlook

Wall Street Journal /, Nations Fortune, Business Week, Forbes /, M

& W

Government Publications

Brokerage firm/commercial bank reports


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How Do We Use

the Economic Outlook?

Use it to identify areas for

additional research

What industries will

benefit?

What industries will be

hurt?

Use it to evaluate

individual companies

Will sales/profits go up or

down?

Stock prices usually

change before the actual

forecasted changes

become apparent in the

economy.

Stock price trends are

another leading indicator

often used to help predictthe direction of the

economy itself.


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Example of Forecasting Market Models

39

Use the relative values of assets and markets to identify if amarket is over or under value:Fed model ratio = S&P earnings yield/Treasury yield

If Fed model ratio>1, equities are undervalued:The Yardeni model >0; markets is under priceE1/ P0 = Yb - d(LTEG)E1/ P0 Expected market earning yield

Yb Yield on A-rated bondsd Weighting factor(0.10)LTEG 5 year growth forecast


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Step 2: Industry Analysis

Evaluate the competitive position of a particular industry in relation

toother industries

Looking for new opportunities &growth potential

Identify companies within the industry that look promising

Looking for strong market positions, pricing leadership, economies of scale, etc.

What is the nature of the industry?

Is the industry regulated?

What role does labor play in the industry? How important are technological developments?

Which economic forces have the most impact on the industry (e.g., interest rates, foreign trade)?

What are the important financial and operating considerations (e.g., access to capital)?

Issues that Affect an Industry


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Growth Cycle Stages

and Investments

Growth Cycle reflects the vitality of an industry or a company

over time.

Initial development: industry is new and risks are

very high Rapid expansion: product acceptance is growing and

investors become very interested

Mature growth: expansion comes from growth in the

economy and returns are more predictable

Stability or decline: demand for product is diminishing and

investors avoid this stage


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/


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Step 3: Fundamental Analysis

Evaluate the financial condition and operating results

of a specific company

Competitive position

Composition and growth in sales

Profit margins and dynamics of earnings

Asset mix (i.e. cash balance, inventory, accounts

receivable, fixed assets)

Financing mix ( i.e. debt, stock)

The value of a stock is influenced by the financial

performance of the company that issued the stock.

Valuation Week6!1!2011

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