Valmet Customer Days Responding to the changing energy market · Naantali Pärnu Brista Bytom...
Transcript of Valmet Customer Days Responding to the changing energy market · Naantali Pärnu Brista Bytom...
Responding to the changingenergy market
Valmet Customer Days
Risto Penttinen - SVP Strategy, People and Performance
October 4, 2018 Vienna
-20 000 -16 000 -12 000 -8 000 -4 000 0 4 000
Year (BC / AD)
Temperature 20 000 BC – 2100 AD
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Temperature anomaly, °C
Rough Fortum illustration based on reconstruction of
various external studies and forecasts;
Shakun et al. (2012); Marcott et al. (2013);
CMIP5 A1B; HadCRUT4
Forecast
2100 AD
Impact of 3 C warming on crop yields
Source: World Resource Institute, Petteri Taalas
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Greenhouse gas emissions
(minimum targets from 1990 level)
- 40 %
- 60 %
- 80 %
MtCO2 (eqv.)
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2017, Eurostat, Fortum Industrial Intelligence1 including international aviation and marine2 iron & steel and chemicals are among the biggest contributors3 residential and commercial heating & cooling4 non-energy related emissions: industrial processes and product use, waste management, agriculture, fugitive emissions
(2°C target level) - 95 %
TODAY
Other
Gas
Oil
Coal
Other4
Industry2
Transport1
Power
Buildings3
By source By sector
European emissions need to decrease drastically beyond power and industry in order to reach the 2050 targets
Lignite134 TWh, 24%
Wind104 TWh, 19%
Hard coal82 TWh, 15%
Nuclear72 TWh, 13%
(to be shutdown by 2022)
Gas49 TWh, 9%
Biomass47 TWh, 9%
Solar38 TWh, 7%
Hydro20 TWh, 4%
Despite Energiewende, more than 40% of Germanelectricity is produced by lignite and hard coal
5Source: Fraunhofer ISE
All figures for full year 2017.
https://www.energy-charts.de/energy.htm?source=all-sources&period=annual&year=2017
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$79,26
$0,25
0
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$0
$10
$20
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$90
1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046
Solar module, $/W Solar capacity installed, GW
Solar and wind to account ~50% of global electricity mix by 2050
Sources:
Module prices; PVInsight and Maycock
Capacity installed; BP Statistical Review and BNEF
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200
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The energy transition will not happen overnightCase Germany
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Total power production
includes exports
”No” to nuclear
decided closures
”No” to highest emitters?
coal and lignite phaseouts
Gas ramp for flexibility
output roughly doubled
Tripling of solar and wind
equals decades of buildout*
~ 70 TWh
> 200 TWh
~ 60 TWh
> 400 TWh
Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance NEO2017, BP Statistical Review 2017, BCG
* Roughly equivalent of additional ~ 200 GW of solar and wind power. In the last five
years, annual wind buildout ~ 5 GW/a and solar buildout ~ 1 GW/a in Germany
Used at
production
CHALLENGE:
Time-shift
required
Illustrative
~ 600 TWh
2018 by 2022 Under review by 2030 by 2050
Energy markets are integrating
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2 x 1,400 MW
Norway-UK
1,400 MW
Norway-Denmark
700 MW
Denmark-Netherlands
860 + 1,000 MW
Jutland-Germany 400 MW
Zealand-Germany
New internal Nordic
grid expansion
Estonia-Latvia 1,400 MW
Denmark-UK
700 MW
Sweden-Germany
New interconnection lines
New Nordic interconnection lines
Existing interconnection lines
2500 homes measured and
controlled in real-time
6+ MW
7+ GWhflexibility on the Finnish fast
frequency reserve markets
15 millionmeasurements each hour
Fortum Spring virtual battery as one enabler of CO2-free energy system
Electric
vehicles
mainstream
Solar and
Wind
mainstream
Bio in
power and
heat
De-carbonization of energy and sustainable waste and materials management are needed to reach 2-degree path
4 ⁰C
3 ⁰C
Global
warming
challenge
Continuation
trajectory
2 ⁰C
Bio-
Products
and
materials
Chemical
recycling
Waste to
Energy
mainstream
Increasing
material
recycling
Value
enhancing
recycling
Sustainable waste management
and material productionDecarbonisation of energy system(power, heat, transportation)
Bio-
based
traffic
fuels
Landfilling
Massive electrification
Accelerated
transition (Paris)
Bio2X
CCS* →
CCU*Power to
Hydrogen
* CCS = carbon capture and storage, CCU = carbon capture and utilization
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Fortum’s strategy and priorities were laid out in Feb 2016
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Flexible
Non-flexible
Flexible
Non-flexible
Hydro
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Other
Industry transformation - Uniper is present across Europe and Russia
• Uniper has ~300 power plants, 200 of
which are hydro power
• Total capacity: ~36 GW
• Power generation: ~121 TWh
• Power generation primarily driven by
hydro, nuclear and thermal sources
• Integrated gas midstream assets
• Employees: ~12,000
Gas power plants (area where located)
Coal / Lignite power plants (area where located)
Hydro power plants (area where located)
Nuclear power plant
Other (area where located)
Uniper’s geographic presence
Gas storage (area where located)
Gas midstream assets
Note: Capacity as per accounting view. Hydro and gas capacity categorized flexible.
Capacity split
14* Heat production incl. Fortum’s associated company Stockholm Exergi; heat production 8.0 TWh (capacity 3,842 MW).
Note: Fortum’s total heat production 36.6 TWh in 2017
** Waste-to-energy plant belonging to Fortum Oslo Värme, which is owned together with City of Oslo since August 2017. Fortum is responsible for operating the joint venture.
City Solutions CHP assets and district heating operations Current focus in Nordics, Poland and Baltic rim
Oil 1%
Coal 22%
Peat 2%
Natural gas 4%
Waste 27%
Heat pumps, electricity 16%
Biomass 28%
(Production capacity 8,513 MW*)
Klaipėda
Hässelby
Jelgava
Joensuu
Järvenpää
Espoo
Częstochowa
Zabrze
Riihimäki
Kumla
Nyborg
Tartu
Naantali
Pärnu
Brista
Bytom
Klemetsrud
Plock
Wroclaw
VärtanHögdalen
Pärnu
Woodchips
Tartu
Woodchips, peat
Jelgava
Woodchips
Associated companies
Waste-CHPMultifuel-CHPBio-CHP Coal/gas-CHP
Joensuu
Woodchips, peat +
pyrolysis plant
JärvenpääWoodchips,
horse manure &SRF
Hässelby
Wood pellets
Värtan KVV8,
Brista 1
Woodchips
Czestochowa
Coal, woodchips
ZabrzeNew unit ready 2018:
coal, waste
NaantaliCoal, woodchips
RiihimäkiHazardous waste MSW+
ICW, material recovery
Kumla
Hazardous waste
ICW + MSW
Nyborg
Hazardous waste
KlaipėdaMSW, RDF,
woodchips
Klemetsrud**
MSW, ICW, RDF
Högdalen
MSW, ICW, RDF
Espoo
Coal, natural gas
Bytom
Coal
Värtan, old units
Coal, oil
Brista 2 MSW, ICW, RDF
Co-owned and consolidated
companies
= hazardous waste
CHP plant locations today
District heat supply/networks
w/o own production
Associated companies’ CHP plants
Fortum’s European heat production 16.6TWh* in 2017
Key common projects
• 185 employees
• Waste to energy treatment of approx. 400.000 tons waste/year
• District heating production: 1,7 TWh/year
• Electricity production: Approx. 150 GWh/year (E)
• 600 kilometres of district heating network
• 30 million litres of water circulating in Oslo
• More than 5000 customers (buildings) connected
Mobility / transportEnergy /
building
Resource utilization
CO2 emissions in Oslo by sector
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Oslo kommune and Fortum
Fortum Oslo Varme – Key figures
• 2020: The City of Oslo will reduce greenhouse
gas emissions by 50%
• Budget for 2018: Reduction of 36% by 2020
• 2030: Oslo's greenhouse gas emissions
reduced by 95%
• 2050: Zero greenhouse gas emissions in Oslo
The City of Oslo’s climate budget
Charge&Drive
• Frame agreement signed
between the Oslo
kommune and Fortum
• Fortum delivers back end
system for Oslo
kommune’s own chargers
Oil boilers
• Fossil fuel for heating will be
prohibited in Oslo from 2020
• Fortum Oslo Varme replace oil
boilers with district heating (DH)
CCS at Klemetsrud
• Tests show stable CO2 purification
with 90% catch
• Removes both fossil CO2 biological
CO2, resulting in carbon negativity
• Can remove approximately 400 000
tonnes of CO2 per year
• Building expertise locally and
nationally, great global transfer value
• Cutting global emissions also
reduces local emissions
Fortum is an important partner to Oslo kommune
in reaching the city’s climate goals
Norway’s largest player within waste to energy and district heating
Fortum is a main partner for Oslo kommune in
reducing emissions in all sectors
Fortum participates in JV in India to build a bio-refinery based on Chempolis fractionation technology
• Prove Chempolis core process in ethanol production
• Bamboo sourcing and suitability for processing
• Working and project execution in India business environment
What will we learn from NRL fractionation plant?
• Fortum has taken a step forward in its
Bio2X programme and established a
joint venture together with Numaligarh
Refinery Limited (NRL) and Chempolis
for building and operating a
biorefinery in Assam, India.
• The joint venture will own the
biorefinery. Construction work will
begin in the autumn of 2018, with the
target date for beginning operations at
the site set for the year 2020.
By 2040, EVs in Europe are set to
increase electricity demand equal
to size of France
Fortum Charge & Drive:
Market leader in Finland and
Norway
• 75 000 registered users
• 2 100 chargers
• 700 fast chargers
• 16 countries
Plugsurfing:
Europe’s leading charging
service
• 76 000 charging points
• 50 000 EV driver users
• 200 charging networks
• 31 countries
Accelerating electric vehicle sales
Third million
Second million
First million
Time to sell amount of EVs
20 years
18 months
8 months
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
the best IN our people
Believethe best FOR
our people
Wantthe best FROM
our people
Expect
We believe in our people, which
empowers them to believe in
themselves, grow and exceed
their own expectations.
We create a work environment
and company culture that
help our people thrive.
Because we believe in our
people and secure a good
work environment, we expect
them to deliver results and
are confident they will
exceed our expectations.
Fortum Leadership Principles – the framework
THANK YOU
Our current geographical presence
21
PAO Fortum
Power generation 26.3 TWh
Heat sales 19.8 TWh
Russia
Nordic countries*
Power generation* 47.1 TWh
Heat sales* 13.2 TWh
Electricity customers 2.4 million
Power
generation
Electricity
sales
Heat
PolandPower generation 0.5 TWh
Heat sales 3.7 TWh
Baltic countriesPower generation 0.7 TWh
Heat sales 1.4 TWh
IndiaPower generation 0.3 TWh
Key figures 2017Sales EUR 4.5 bn
Comparable operating profit EUR 0.8 bn
Balance sheet EUR 22 bn
Personnel 8,800
* Including Fortum’s associated company Stockholm Exergi;
power generation 1.7 TWh and heat sales 8.2 TWh.