v

To learn how coincidence and probability judgements influence perceptions of anomalous

experience.

• When two unrelated events correspond.

• There is no obvious relationship between the two

• But… a belief forms, creating a cognitive bias, that one causes the other.

Coincidences can lead to superstitious beliefs-

Bjorn Borg would not shave when he had started a winning streak in a tennis tournament. He had won once when hehadn't shaved andthese 2 phenomenawere linked in his mind.This is called the psychology of contiguity.

The Research: CoincidenceZusne & Jones (1989):Ever though about someone 5 mins before you learn of their death?

Spooky?Not really. In a country the size of USA, 3000 people would

experience this by chance alone.

So… what seems to be a paranormal coincidence can be explained by chance.

The Research: CoincidenceFalk (1982; 1989):Extraordinary coincidences are singled out when they occur and given a significant status. This suggests a bias in cognitive processing.Peter Kay - Connie's Funeral - YouTubeFurthermore, unlikely coincidences are considered more significant when they happen to us- egocentric bias.

However…. The flipside:• Is there even such a thing as

coincidence?

Chopra (2003): All events can be related to unseen or prior causes/associations.

This view is becoming accepted by scientists.

Something else to think about:

Calculations of coincidences depend on memories- track must be kept of previous occurrences etc.

Memory: • Subject to error• False memories?• Biased?• Wishful thinking?• Suggestion?

Many people misjudge the probability of unrelated events occurring and think it’s paranormal.

E.g. Thinking about a person and then they ring you

Part of a dream coming true.

Probability Judgements: The Research

Langer & Roth (1975):Early success at a task (E.g. picking lotto

numbers) enhanced an illusion of control. Ps believe skill was involved and are biased in success recall- contributes to a belief in ESP.

Paulus (1988):

Believers more likely to consider dreams as predictive- based on a dream event and future

occurrence.

Shows poor estimation of probabilities leads to paranormal beliefs.

Probability Judgements: The Research

However….

• Although many studies find a difference in probability estimation between believers and non-believers, not all do.

• Suggests that this area not fully understood.

• Could be because methodology is flawed

However…

• Research doesn’t identify where cognitive factors come from. Innate or learned?

Banziger (1983):

Ps who were sceptics on parapsychology course became more sceptical in their thinking.

Therefore, cognitive styles are altered by experience, leading to a change in probability judgements.