Uzbekistan 2030, Defining the Pattern of Growth and Policies for Accelerated Transformation
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Transcript of Uzbekistan 2030, Defining the Pattern of Growth and Policies for Accelerated Transformation
China, December 18, 2014
Center for Economic Research (Uzbekistan)
Economic Growth and Structural Transformation
Achievements: • High rates of economic growth,
even during the period of global financial crisis.
• Significant increase in the share of industry and services while reducing the share of agriculture in GDP.
• Diversification of the export structure, reducing the share of cotton and increasing the share of goods with higher added value.
26,3 17,1 14,2
21,1 23,9 24 24,2
37,3
28,1 30,1 26,3 18,0 17,6 17,6
36,7
41,7 43,2 42 48,9 50,1 50,2
13,1 12,5 10,6 9,2 8,3 8
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013
GDP structure , %
Net taxes on products
Services
Agriculture
Industry
48,4 27,5
19,1 11,3 9,3
1,7 5,4
3,8 9,7 10,9
2,5 2,9
5,3 5,1 5,6
4,7 10,3 11,5
24,8 34,6
6,6 9,2
6,8
7,8 48,4 3,4 8,4
5,5
6,5
7,7
13,7 12,2 9,1
17,3
21,3
30,2 30,5 27,7
12,5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2012
Structure of export, %
Other
Services
machinery and equipment
ferrous and non-ferrousmetalsenergy and oil products
Chemical products
Food products
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
Dynamics of Economics growth and investment
GDP (growth, %) Investment (% to GDP)
Infrastructure Development
Achievement : • Extension of the length of roads and
railways. • Significant increase in providing
access to water and Natural gas for population.
• Dynamic development of IT sector.
Public roads with hard surface Public Railways Transportation of passengers Freight
190 326 572 1146 2714
5873
12978
16375
22700 25441
20274 21500
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mobile and Internet users
Number of mobile users (thousands)
Number of Internet users (thousands)
76,1
83,5 80,4
87
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Access to water and gas, %
Natural gas
Drinking water
Living Standards and Population’s Welfare
Achievements: • Significant decrease in poverty level. • Dynamic development of small business and
entrepreneurship. • Decreasing level of disparities in people’s
income
GDP per capita on PPP Money income per capita on PPP Gini coefficient, right scale
SB share in GDP, % Single tax rate (%), left scale Employment, %
104,2 108,4 112,9 121,3 129,8 139,5
152,7 166,5
180,0 195,3
212,0 229,4
248,2 27,0
16,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
Dynamics of Economic growth and Poverty reduction
GDP (2000=100), left scale Poverty level, %
Quality of Human Capital
Achievements: • High level of expenditures for social purposes • Significant decrease in maternal and infant
mortality • Increase in life expectancy
Share of expenditures on social sphere and security (% to total state budget expenditures) Dynamics of GDP growth (2000=100)
Education expenditures, public (% of GDP)
500,0
550,0
600,0
650,0
700,0
750,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
19
91
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92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
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20
01
20
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20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Maternal and Infant mortality
Birth (thousands), right scale
Maternal Mortality (per 100 000 live birth)
Infant mortality (per 1,000 live birth)
67,4
70,7
73,5
75,5
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
19
90
19
91
19
92
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93
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20
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20
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20
03
20
04
20
05
20
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20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Life expectancy, years
Male Female
Growth rates towards 2020 and beyond Considering Scenarios
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
2010 2020 2030
KENYA
VIETNAM
MOROCCO
BULGARIA
AZERBAIJAN
UZBEKISTAN
PERU
SRI LANKA
THAILAND
ALGERIA
4 % growth
6 % growth
8 % growth8 % growth
Azerbaijan Bulgaria
6% growth
Morocco Vietnam
4% growth
Vietnam Kenya
Long-term development challenges : production structure of GDP
Challenges: • To increase the share of industry in GDP from 35,4% in 2010
to 37% requires ensuring annual industrial growth rate at 8.3%.
• An urgent task is to increase the share of processing industry in the GDP. Increasing the level from 9% in 2010 to 15% by 2030 requires the achievement of annual growth rates of added cost in processing at 11.3% point with an average annual growth rate in mining industries at the 5% level.
• In order to increase the share of services in GDP from 42.5% in 2010 to 56% in 2030, an average annual growth rate of added value in this sector should reach 9.2%.
• Providing the average annual growth rate of added cost in agriculture at 2.6% level would reduce its share in GDP from 19.5% to 8%.
Long-term development challenges: Investments and Economic Growth
Government priorities: • Achievement of an annual economic growth at
8% in the long term requires the share of investment in GDP about 30%, which implies annual investments growth at the level of 9.4%.
• Ensuring the annual investments growth rate at the level of 9.4% requires annual increase of gross savings at 11.3%.
• Re-orientation of investment flows from mining to processing industries is necessary.
China
High income
India
Korea Middle Income
Singapore Slovak
Thailand
Uzbekistan
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Gro
ss f
ixe
d c
ap
ita
l fo
rma
tio
n (
%
of
GD
P)
GDP growth (annual %)
GDP growth and Investment (%), avr. 2001-2010
energy
metallurgy
mechanical engineering
light industry
food industry
construction materials
chemical and petrochemical industry
other
Long-term development challenges: Financial sector
Government Priorities: • To facilitate financing of investment activities and strengthen the
role of the financial sector in this process, the rate of monetization of the economy and the share of bank credits in GDP should reach almost 100%. This requires an annual growth of economy monetization and increase of bank credits at 17%.
• Increasing the level of capitalization of listed companies up to 70% of GDP implies ensuring the rate of annual growth at 35%.
• The policy of the Government of Uzbekistan aims at addressing these issues. In particular, if in 2000 the level of economy monetization was at 12.2%, the figures for 2005 formed 15.1%, and for 2010 - 19.4%. Only in 2011 a turnover of the stock market increased by more than 3 times.
Long-term development challenges: Foreign Trade
Challenges: • Ensuring the average annual economic growth rate at 8%
level requires growth of exports at 10% on average every year. As a result, by 2030 the volume of merchandise export will increase up to 79.4 billion dollars in prices of 2010. With an average annual growth of processing export by 15.3% during 2012-2020, and by 17.9% in 2021-2030 (the extractive industries - 8.3 and 4.0% respectively), the share of processing industries will increase in merchandise exports up to 60% by 2030.
• To ensure the dynamic export growth, measures on reducing the cost of exports and imports by constructing alternative transit corridors and optimizing customs procedures should be taken, which will reduce the cost of exports and imports, respectively, 2500 and 2875 dollars per container.
3,1
14,1 18,7
48,4
61,3 67,2
73,2
89,6
0102030405060708090
100
AZE KAZ UZB Lowermiddleincome
Uppermiddleincome
MYS OECD KOR
Manufactures exports (% of merchandise exports)(2009)
Long-term development challenges: Agriculture
Issues: • High growth rates of manufacturing and services will reduce the share
of agriculture in GDP, while agriculture will be developed with an average annual rate at 3.3%, strengthening the country's food security. This is especially important for:
• Strengthening food security • Facilitating diversification • Assisting productive employment • Increasing volume of local demand for manufacturing goods
• Decrease of the share of agriculture in GDP for 2011-2030 years from 17.5 to 8.0% and a reducing the level of population employed in agriculture from 25.2 to 15.4% should go in line with creation of new jobs through development of manufacturing and services in urban villages and small cities.
• As a result - accelerated urbanization process, leading lead to decrease of the rural population from 48.5% in 2010 to 37.0% in 2030.
Long-term Development Challenges : Education, Innovations and IT
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Uzbekistan: ICT Development
число персональных компьютеров (на 100 чел.)
число конвергентных устройств
пропускная способность внешнего интернет канала (Тбит/с), правая шкала
Challenges: • Developing a system of education, forming a
creative and innovative thinking • Establishing institutions of the innovation
system, which provides efficient transformation of innovative ideas into commercial and socially important products.
• Providing high-speed access to global knowledge and information, which contributes to modernizing society and accelerates process of following the global ideas and trends
Number of PC (per 100 people) Number of convergent facilities Bandwidth of external Internet channel (Tbit/sec), right scale
Long-term Development Challenges: Public Health and Healthy Generation
Challenges: • High rates of economic growth and real income will lead to
increased demand for health services. • Further development of the health care system, providing
modern medical and diagnostic equipment, requires an increase in expenditures for health
• Increasing share of older population in the age structure, also requires increased spending on healthcare.
• Addressing this challenges requires creating of favorable conditions for development of alternative financing recourses of the sector, including medical insurance.
Uzbekistan 1991-2012 Strengthened State, Stabilized economy, Structural reforms
• Creating basic institutions of an
independent state • Introducing basic institutions and
principles of market based economy
• National currency • Prices liberalization • Direct government support of
real sector enterprises • SME privatization • Creating a new system of social
protection • …
ОПРЕДЕЛЕНИЕ ПРИОРИТЕТОВ
1991 - 1995
Overcoming Economic Recession
1996 - 2003
Recovering Growth and Launching Structural Reforms
2004 - 2012
Стабилизация экономики и умеренный рост
Deepening Structural reforms and Accelerating Growth
• Achievement of grain and energy
independence • Expanding privatization process,
including large enterprises involving strategic investors
• Creation of new large industrial enterprises
• Localization programs in the industrial sector
• Reforming the management system of the economy sectors
• Launching the National Training Programme
• …
• Creating incentives for export • Improving conditions for
development of small business and entrepreneurship
• Sectoral modernization programs
• Stimulating industrial cooperation
• Creating free economic zones, transport and logistics hubs
• Wide use of ICT in different areas • …
Uzbekistan 2030 Transformed Economy and State
for the prosperous development, harmonious society and secure future
Sustaining peace and security
Changing the pattern of growth and the structure
of national economy
Building effective Institutions to
drive the accelerated
transformation
Creating human capital for the
changing economy, state
and society
Building harmonious
society, united on its way forward
• Enhanced regulatory framework • Reduced transaction costs of
business • Favorable conditions created for
formation of large business groups • Encourage savings, and their
transformation into investment • …
• Attraction of high technologies,
increase the share of high-tech industries in production and export structure
• Creating favorable conditions for expansion of private funding of modernization processes
• ….
SETTING PRIORITIES
DEVELOPING A ROAD MAP TOWARD 2020 AND BEYOND
• Expanding production of goods and
services with high added value • Transition to an innovation
economy/knowledge-based economy
• Development of tools to promote Uzbekistan’s geo-economic interests
• …
2012 - 2015 2020 - 2030 2016 - 2020
Modernizing basic sectors Developing processing industry Foreign trade and integration to the global economy
https://www.facebook.com/CER.Uzbekistan Visit us for more info:
http://www.cer.uz
CER’s Flagship Initiatives of 2014:
Looking beyond the horizon: guidelines and best practices in formulating national visions http://vision.cer.uz
Uzbekistan Towards 2030: A New Social Protection Model for a Changing Economy and Society
Food Security in 2025: Availability, Accessibility and Nutrition
Thank you!