UURAF Presentation FINAL
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THE GEOPOLITICAL POWER SHIFT IN EURASIA: A NEW WORLD ORDER?
PRESENTER: JACQUELINE CICCHINIMENTOR: NORMAN GRAHAM, PH.D. DEPT. JAMES MADISON AND CERES MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY, EAST LANSING
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OUTLINE Road-map and organization of talk.
• Purpose?• Who?• What?• Evidence • Data • Conclusion
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PURPOSE?To understand China’s role in Eurasia and implications for the future global order in terms of economic and political power
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RESEARCH QUESTION(S)
• 1) Is China’s increasing economic and institutional dominance a threat to Central Eurasia?
• 2) What role does Russia play in China’s rise? Is Russia’s power being weakened or strengthened?
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BACKGROUND
• Soviet Russia• Russian Revolution, 1917
• Influence of communism around the world socialist bloc governments
• 1922: Union of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and the Transcaucasian Republics
• Structure & Politics • One party political system, largest state in the world (8.6 million
square miles) • Planned economy, strong railway and transport system• Strongest nation both politically and economically in Eurasia
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BACKGROUND[…]
• Russia Today• Less control for Russia
• Collapse of USSR• Some soviet nations established established sovereignty • No longer economically dominant, China is major player
• Market force based• Abundant natural resources such as oil/gas • EU Sanctions have hurt Russia’s trading ability and financial
stability • Battered economy
• Increase in interest rates by 17%• Capitol outflows, falling oil prices, lack of access to foreign
markets and demographic problems
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SHIFT IN POWER
CHINA• After Mao’s communist regime…
• Market-socialism, government no longer in control of all businesses; however, maintains strong central government
• Increased trade relationship with post-Soviet countries • Historically Russian dominated • Infrastructure development and investment • Sign of changing power in Central Eurasia
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CHINA - RUSSIA
• “If the Russian side needs it, we will provide necessary assistance within our capacity” – Xi Jinping
• “The role of Ukraine, as a transit country, will be reduced to zero…Gazprom has de facto abandoned Ukraine as a transit party” – Gazprom CEO
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THE SILK ROAD ‘ONE BELT ONE ROAD’
• Trade & Investment • “I believe that 2015 will provide the development of the ‘One
Belt One Road’ is an initiative primarily raised by China, it is fundamentally open and inclusive in nature” – China’s Minister of Commerce, Gao Hucheng
• What is China doing?• November 2014: Pledged $40 billion to set up a silk road
fund to improve connectivity across Asia by investing in infrastructure, resources and industrial and financial cooperation
• $54.7 billion to areas and regions in Central and South Asia• Energy, railway, and highway infrastructures
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GAS AND PIPELINE DEALS
• Russian-Gas deal • 30 year agreement to start in 2018• Up to 68 bcm of Russian gas to be delivered to China annually• $350-400 per cubic meter• Possible Routes are Altai pipeline and power of Siberia pipeline
• “New Natural Gas Cooperation Alliance” • Altai Pipeline
• Gazprom to supply 30 billion cubic meters per year for 30 years from Western Siberia to Northwest China
• When?: Starting in 2019
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OIL AND GAS GRAPH
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GAS INVESTMENT GRAPH
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MULTILATERAL AGREEMENTS• Asia Pacific Free Trade Deal• Shanghai Cooperation Organization • Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
• Alternative to World Bank • Been approached by 27 prospective founding members with the
UK, France, Italy, Luxembourg, and Switzerland
• Start? By end of 2015
• “Austria has already had close economic and political ties with the Asian region and is always so far very positive about international projects” – Johannes Frischmann, a spokesman for Finance Minister Hans Joerg Schelling
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SO WHAT?
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CONCLUSION
• China’s rise with its continued streak of economic dominance should be viewed as a threat to Central Eurasia
• Why?• Regional alliances neighboring China should be wary of
measures taken to build international alliances
• Russia is losing power and credibility in the region and relying on China for economic support
• Now what?• Needs to reconsider the anti-West rhetoric, this could help
lift sanctions imposed by EU
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REFERENCES • http://www.eurasiareview.com/15122014-russian-risks-rise-china-energy-deals-
analysis/• http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-and-Chinas-Growing-Energ
y-Relationship.html• http
://www.globalresearch.ca/russia-and-china-the-dawning-of-a-new-monetary-system/5423637
• http://rt.com/business/233051-russia-china-boost-partnership/ • http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/china-setting-the-agendas/ • http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?lng=en&id=188638 • http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?lng=en&v33=118574
&ots627=0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233&id=189360
• http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21639557-russian-economy-will-take-long-time-recover-it-badly-needs-structural-reforms-it
• http://rt.com/business/242533-russia-china-eastern-route/ • http://rt.com/business/243753-austria-china-infrastructure-bank/ • http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-03/25/content_19908124.htm
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS • This project was made possible by
Michigan State University • Special thank you to my faculty advisor
Professor Graham for his dedication to research in Eurasian politics and guidance through the process of my own research
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QUESTIONS?