Utilisation of Soft Operational Research Methods within Capability Based Planning
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Transcript of Utilisation of Soft Operational Research Methods within Capability Based Planning
Defence Research andDevelopment Canada
Recherche et développementpour la défense Canada Canada
Utilisation of Soft Operational Research Methods within Capability Based Planning
Emile F PelletierStrategic Planning Operational Research Team
Defence Research and Development CanadaCentre for Operational Research and Analysis
1-09-2010
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Outline
• References
• Introduction
• the SC2RAT Tool
– Inputs
– Method
– Outputs
– Way Ahead
• Questions
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Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP References
• Burton, R.M.H., Christopher, G.L., Chouinard, P., Kerzner, L.F., Maj Simonds, K., (2005). Procedures, processes and tools of capability-based planning: An outline for a Canadian approach. DRDC-CORA TR 2005-035, November, 2005.
• Christopher, G., Blakeney, D., Petryk, R., Taylor, B., Kerzner, L., Fong, V., …, Beard, A., (2009). Strategic capability roadmap version 1.0 analytic framework. DRDC-CORA TR 2009-013, December, 2009.
• TTCP JSA TP3 (2006). Guide to capability-based planning [Word document]. Retrieved from Public Scientific & Technical Information Online Web site. http://www.dtic.mil/ttcp/JSA-TP-3-CBP-Paper-Final.doc.
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Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Introduction
• Capability Based Planning process depends on harnessing ‘soft’ SME inputs into numeric data to use to produce an investment plan.
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Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Introduction
(Burton, Christopher, Chouinard, Kerzner, & Simonds, 2005)
Scenarios
Planning> req’ts
Management> affluences/deficiencies
Integration> plan
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Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Capability Planning
• Steps to Identify Capability Requirements
• Chief of Defense Staff Action Team Capability Assessment Matrix(CATCAM)
• Output: Prioritised list of Capability requirements, Capability goals (MoC)
(Christopher et al., 2009)
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Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Capability Management
• Map CF Force Structure to required Capabilities
• The Scenario Capability + Capacity Requirements Assessment / Outlook Tool (SC2RAT)
• A set of scenarios assessed with SC2RAT generates a list of Capability deficiencies.
• Concurrency analysis completes this list and allows production of a list of affluences.
• Consideration of capability deficiencies and development of possible alternatives
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Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Components of SC2RAT
• SC2RAT uses a mix of hard and soft elements
• Soft OR in SC2RAT:
– SMEs provide objective input
– Interpreting MoCs that come from planning
– Judgment to choose Force Elements to conduct required capabilities and assessing quantities of each FE required
• Hard OR in SC2RAT:
– Algorithms and various calculations
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The SC2RAT ToolInputs
• Scenarios
– Scenario Analysis (CATCAM)
• Capability requirements
• Prioritisation of Capabilities (CATCAM scores)
• Measures of Capability (MoCs)
• Capability Framework
• Force Structure
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The SC2RAT ToolInputs
Qualitative
Quantitative
Factual Conceptual
Capability FrameworkScenarios
Measures of Capability
CATCAM Scores
Force Structure
Subject Matter Expert (SME) input SME + OR Analyst Support input
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The SC2RAT ToolMethod
• SMEs determine:
– Force Elements (w/ qty.) to conduct Capabilities
– Assessment across time-slices
• SC2RAT calculates:
– Capability Outlook: a colour-coded depiction of the overall ‘health’ of capabilities over time
– Capability Deficiencies
– Force Packages: list quantities of FEs required
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The SC2RAT Tool Method
Snapshot from SC2RAT, summer 2010 version
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The SC2RAT ToolMethod
• Soft aspects of SC2RAT method
– Group interpretation of MoCs:
• translate into quantifiable assessments which are quantities of FEs needed to conduct capabilities
– Working with conceptual inputs:
• Capability Framework
• Scenarios
• CATCAM scores
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The SC2RAT Tool Outputs
• Capability Outlook to show results at a broad level
• Capability Deficiencies for consideration and development of Alternatives
• Force Packages for input into the Concurrency Tool to allow for identification of Capability affluences
Snapshot from SC2RAT, summer 2010 version
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The SC2RAT Tool Outputs
Qualitative
Quantitative
Factual Conceptual
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The SC2RAT Tool Outputs
Qualitative
Quantitative
Factual Conceptual
Capability Deficiencies
Capability Outlook
Force Packages
Subject Matter Expert (SME) output SME + OR Analyst Support output
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
The SC2RAT Tool Outputs
Qualitative
Quantitative
Factual Conceptual
Capability Deficiencies
Capability Outlook
Force Packages
Subject Matter Expert (SME) output SME + OR Analyst Support output
Capability FrameworkScenarios
Measures of Capability
CATCAM Scores
Force Structure
Subject Matter Expert (SME) input SME + OR Analyst Support input
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The SC2RAT Tool Way Ahead
• Capturing discussions in SC2RAT (‘soft’)
• Allow the allocation algorithm to substitute different FEs for unavailable FEs (‘hard’)
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Questions