Using satellite-based es.mates of evapotranspiraon and ...60 mm/yr of GW decline in CV 100 mm/yr ......

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Using satellite-based es.mates of evapotranspira.on and groundwater changes to determine anthropogenic water fluxes in land surface model Min-Hui Lo , R. G. Anderson, J. S. FamiglieF, S. Swenson, Q. Tang Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Na.onal Taiwan University, Taiwan 2016/09/29 @ the GEWEX workshop of Including Water Management in Large Scale Models

Transcript of Using satellite-based es.mates of evapotranspiraon and ...60 mm/yr of GW decline in CV 100 mm/yr ......

Page 1: Using satellite-based es.mates of evapotranspiraon and ...60 mm/yr of GW decline in CV 100 mm/yr ... , 2016 FamiglieF et al., 2011 Voss et al., 2013 ... – How to best u.lize the

Usingsatellite-basedes.matesofevapotranspira.onandgroundwaterchangestodetermineanthropogenicwaterfluxesinlandsurfacemodel

Min-HuiLo,R.G.Anderson,J.S.FamiglieF,S.Swenson,Q.TangDepartmentofAtmosphericSciences,Na.onalTaiwanUniversity,Taiwan

2016/09/29@theGEWEXworkshopofIncludingWaterManagementinLargeScaleModels

Page 2: Using satellite-based es.mates of evapotranspiraon and ...60 mm/yr of GW decline in CV 100 mm/yr ... , 2016 FamiglieF et al., 2011 Voss et al., 2013 ... – How to best u.lize the
Page 3: Using satellite-based es.mates of evapotranspiraon and ...60 mm/yr of GW decline in CV 100 mm/yr ... , 2016 FamiglieF et al., 2011 Voss et al., 2013 ... – How to best u.lize the

Usingsatellite-basedes.matesofevapotranspira.onandgroundwaterchangestodetermineanthropogenicwaterfluxesinlandsurfacemodel

Min-HuiLo,R.G.Anderson,J.S.FamiglieF,S.Swenson,Q.TangDepartmentofAtmosphericSciences,Na.onalTaiwanUniversity,Taiwan

2016/09/29@theGEWEXworkshopofIncludingWaterManagementinLargeScaleModels

Page 4: Using satellite-based es.mates of evapotranspiraon and ...60 mm/yr of GW decline in CV 100 mm/yr ... , 2016 FamiglieF et al., 2011 Voss et al., 2013 ... – How to best u.lize the

LandSurfaceProcesses

Landsurfaceprocessesfunc.onas–  lowerboundarycondi.onin

AtmosphericModels–  upperboundarycondi.onin

HydrologicalModels–  interfaceforcoupled

Atmospheric/Hydrological/EcologicalModels

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A bucket model was developed as a lower boundary condition for a GCM by Manabe et al., [1965]

Soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model[Dickinson et al, 1986 and Sellers et al., 1986.] Heterogeneity hydrologic processes [Famiglietti and Wood, 1991; 1994; Liang et al., 1994]

1965

1970

1980

1990

2000

Evolutions of Land Surface Model (LSM)

EarliestLSMs:prescribedsoilmoisturecondi.on

Detailedecologicalprocesses.[Bonan,1998]

2010

Subsurfaceprocess[YehandEltahir,2005;Niuetal.,2007;Loetal.,2008;Pokhreletal.,Campoyetal.,…]

I-GEM(ImpactofGroundwaterinEarthsystemModels)2015-2018betweenFranceANR(AgnèsDucharne)andTaiwanNSF(Min-HuiLO)

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Bonan(2008)

Physicalprocessesinlandsurfacemodel

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Irriga.onintensitymap(FAO)

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modifiedfromFauntetal.[2009]

CentralValleyAquifer

CentralValleySurfaceProcesses

GWR(184)

precipita.on(374)

evapora.on(607)

surfacewaterdeliveries(241)

groundwaterwithdrawal

(203)storagelose(33)

(units:mm/year)

California’sCentralValley(52,000km2)

waterbudgetinheavilyirrigatedsystem

usingCaliforniaasanexample

(Famiglie5etal.,2011;Andersonetal.,2012;LoandFamiglie5,2013;Loetal.,2013;Andersonetal.,2015)

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Cancurrentmodelssimulatereasonableevapora.on?

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

50

100

Year

mm

/mon

(a) Evapotranspiration from 9 Land Model Simulations

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

100

200

300

400

500

Year

mm

/yr

(b) Observed Precipitation

canmodelssimulatereasonableevapora.on?

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

50

100

Time

mm

/mon

(a) Evapotranspiration from 3 Estimations and 9 Land Model Simulations

model obs

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

100

200

300

400

500

Time

mm

/yr

(b) Precipitation from PRISM

2 4 6 8 10 12020406080

100120

Time

mm

/mon

(c) Same as (a), but for Climatology

model (279mm)obs (655mm)

Andersonetal.,2015

UnitedStatesAgriculturalMonitoring(USAM),Tangetal,2009

Thesurfaceenergybalancealgorithmforland(SEBAL),Andersonetal.,2012

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dSdt

= In −Out

650mm/yrvs280mm/yr

Howmuchwateratleastneedstobeapplied(ThedifferencebetweenactuallyET&modelET)

lowerenvelopees.mateofirrigatedwaterdemand

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

50

100

Time

mm

/mon

(a) Evapotranspiration from 3 Estimations and 9 Land Model Simulations

model obs

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

100

200

300

400

500

Time

mm

/yr

(b) Precipitation from PRISM

2 4 6 8 10 12020406080

100120

Time

mm

/mon

(c) Same as (a), but for Climatology

model (279mm)obs (655mm)

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GRACEes.matedgroundwaterpumpingrate

2004 2006 2008 2010−200

−100

0

100

200

Groundwater Storage

mm

Time

60mm/yrofGWdeclineinCV

100mm/yr

270mm/yr

dGWdt

=GWR− pumping

Surfacewaterusesta.s.cs(240mm/yr)fromStateWaterProject,USBureauofReclama.on,andcanalstreamflowdatafromCaliforniaDataExchange.Totalirrigatedwaterdemand(~400mm/yr)inCV,(Wisseretal.,2008)

FamiglieFetal.,2011

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100mm/yr

270mm/yr

representa.onofirriga.onfluxes

Andersonetal.,2015

re-conductprevioussimula.ons

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

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mm

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Evapotranspiration from 3 Estimations and Land Model Simulation with Irrigation

model with irriobs

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•  Currentmodelshavesophis.catedphysicalparameteriza.ons.

•  HOWEVER,lackofanthropogenicprocessesleadstounderes.matedevapora.on.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

50

100

Time

mm

/mon

(a) Evapotranspiration from 3 Estimations and 9 Land Model Simulations

model obs

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

100

200

300

400

500

Time

mm

/yr

(b) Precipitation from PRISM

2 4 6 8 10 12020406080

100120

Time

mm

/mon

(c) Same as (a), but for Climatology

model (279mm)obs (655mm)

recap

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Caveat:

•  Constantirrigatedwater?•  GWwithdrawalfromconfinedandunconfinedaquifersglobally?

NextStep:

•  Applythisapproachglobally•  CoupletoGCMtoseehumanfingerprintontheclimate

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Reageretal.,2016

FamiglieFetal.,2011 Vossetal.,2013 Rodelletal.,2009

Fengetal.,2013

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Figure 3

Groundwaterwithdrawal Irriga.onintensitymap(FAO)

GRACEtrendmap:

spaAaldistribuAonoflandwaterstoragechange(2003-2014)

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Caveat:

•  Constantirrigatedwater?•  GWwithdrawalfromconfinedandunconfinedaquifersglobally?

NextStep:

•  Applythisapproachglobally•  CoupletoGCMtoseehumanfingerprintontheclimate

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climatemodelsimula.ons

•  Model: –  NCAR AGCM (Community Atmosphere Model, 1.4 lat x 1.4 lon)

•  Experiments: –  Exp01 (CTR): CAM coupled land surface model –  Exp02 (IRRI): CAM coupled land surface model + Irrigation

•  Methodology: –  Both simulations are conducted for 90 years –  Analysis of the differences between Exp01 and Exp02 for the

west of US and for summer only.

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Loetal.,2013

changesinlocalsurfaceenergybudget

increaseinlatentheatfluxdecreaseinsurfacetemperature

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asymmetricresponsesinrainfall

LoandFamiglieF,2013 Loetal.,2013

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011120

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Time, mon

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ET Climatology from IRRI and CTR runs

IRRICTR

CMIP5modelsaverages

applica.onsoncurrentclimatemoels

simulatedcostalstratocumulusmightbeoveres.mated?simulatedUSsouthwestrainfallmightbeunderes.mated?

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•  GRACEtrendmapprovidesaninvaluableinforma.on–  Someofthosenega.veregionsindicatetheanthropogenicac.vi.es

–  Howtobestu.lizetheGRACEdatainclimatemodels?

•  Whencouplingtotheclimatemodel,–  theresultsshowtheimportanceofsubsurfacehydrologicalandanthropogenicprocessesintheclimateandwatercycle.

summary

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ET Estimate

TheMODISdataincludeLandCoverType,SurfaceReflectance,LandSurfaceTemperature/Emissivity,Vegeta.onIndices,andAlbedo.

Surfaceradia.oncomponentsareobtainedfromSurfaceRadia.onBudgetData.

UnitedStatesAgriculturalMonitoring(USAM)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

20

40

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100

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mm

/mon

Average ET for Central Valley

MODISSEBAL

Thesurfaceenergybalancealgorithmforland(SEBAL)

Inputdata:SurfaceT,surfaceemissivity,vegindices,andalbedofromMODIS.Incomingsolar,airhumidity,netlongwaveradia.on,andairtemperaturedatafromCIMIS(TheCaliforniaIrriga.onManagementInforma.onSystem)

FromRayAnderson

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Andersonetal.,2015

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0 2 4 6 8 10 120

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Evap

otra

nspi

ratio

n, m

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onth

Climatological Evapotranspiration, Averaged in Central Valley

obsCMIP5

fromAndersonetal.,2015

Simula.onsofEvapotranspira.oninCMIP5